Fast Money 1/6/26

23:54Names like Southern Copper, Freeport MacMoran, BHP all rising today. Tim, you've been very hot on the metal trade. Well, you know, copper miners, you know, we'll talk about gold and silver. And, you know, that trade is up almost 55 percent in the last since really mid-August. But copper miners are up 80. And it's a lot of different things going on because we've had a lot of volatility in the copper price. Now we have more certainty in the copper price. And what I think you're going to see with the miners is the same thing you saw with the gold miners, which is that the analyst community now has the ability to begin to model out at more predictable.

24:27And maybe it's not. I mean, spikes in oil prices are often bad for the input prices in oil in analyst models. But I think copper analysts are not at five bucks a pound. They just aren't. And they're probably more like, you know, 375 to four, which is where I think a lot of people thought it was going to get back to. I think copper, not only for all the structural reasons we talk about electricity grid and whatnot, but the politics of copper. The politics of copper were always a supply disruption and a mine and a strike in Peru or in Grasburg or in Indonesia. Now it's a strategic asset. It's very much a part of this.

25:05It's not a rare earth, but it's certainly a part of this industrial trade that's also strategic. There's also the sort of technical aspect of the copper trade nowadays. Copper having come to the United States before, you know, when there was a thought that there was going to be tariffs, people moved the metal here to the United States. They bought it here, and that's causing elsewhere. Disruptions elsewhere. Exactly. Disruptions elsewhere and demand elsewhere for prices to go higher. The one thing that I just, I'm having a nervous breakdown in my little corner of the circle here, if I can say that, is that I traded commodities during 08-09 for J.P.

25:38Morgan, for the private bank. And you learn very quickly that gold and oil are liquid, relatively speaking. Everything else is a fraction of the liquidity. So it goes more on the way up, but it also goes more on the way down. So right now, I completely agree with you. The picture for copper for most of the metals is very strong. And copper is different, right, because of the strategic asset notion. But I just think if you have worries over the AI trade and the data center build out, if you have a tariff disruption of some sort, I'm not even sure what that would look like, this thing can pull back very fast in a tactical way, like short-term pullback.

26:17And I would just be mindful of that for people watching that own it, but be ready for some vol along the way. Dance at the door. Thank you. Yes. Stairs up, elevator down is what you're saying, and that's true in commodities. I'll say this, and I think Tim would agree. As important as crude oil to the global economy, copper is right there as well. So there's clear things going on. Southern copper, all-time high. Freeport, McMoran, I think, if not, it was made in 2008. That's on its horse. And gold mining stocks are saying that the gold rally is not ending anytime soon. Look what Newmont, look what the GDX did today, Mel.

26:50This is very inflationary, too. You know, the impact of copper and global inflation is real. And I think we haven't even started to see it feed through to end prices and everything from housing to construction and whatnot. There's a lot more fast money to come. Here's what's coming up next. The breakout crypto trade for 2026. The token soaring more than 20 percent over the past week. and what's fueling the surge. Plus, what changes in Venezuela mean for oil and the economy and what a potential trade deal between Europe and Latin America could mean for markets. Rebecca Patterson goes global to get some answers.

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28:52And we trust you to make smart decisions. After all, you listen to this show. See terms at discover.com slash credit card. Welcome back to Fast Money. The Bitwise XRP ETF ripping in the year's first three trading days up more than 23 percent. CNBC's Mackenzie Stagallis is the details on what has been up behind the move. Come on. Come on. This is ridiculous. Welcome. Thank you. What's the deal with XRP? The breakout trade of the 2026 crypto rally isn't Bitcoin or Ether. It is XRP. Now, the token tied to Ripple is up more than 20 percent over the past week, pushing past Binance's BNB coin to become the third largest cryptocurrency by market value.

29:33And even with the broader crypto complex pulling back today, XRP has been the quiet outperformer for months now. The use case here is payments, specifically cross-border settlement. Ripple designed XRP as a bridge asset. When a bank or payments provider needs to move value from dollars to yen, XRP can sit in the middle and help settle that transfer in seconds instead of days. Now, it's aimed at financial institutions and payment rails, which is a very different pitch from Bitcoin's digital gold narrative. And unlike stable coins, which are basically tokenized dollars, XRP is trying to be the exchange layer that moves value between currencies.

30:10So money's moving into XRP for three big reasons. First, the regulatory overhang has finally cleared. Ripple has fully wrapped up its SEC fight as of August. Second, it's a less crowded trade than Bitcoin or Ether. And third, the flows have held up. Even during the Q4 dip, investors kept adding to XRP-focused funds, while Bitcoin ETF flows fell with the price. How do you think the declines in Bitcoin and Ethereum fit into this? And specifically, these are two coins that have been wrapped up in digital asset treasury companies. And so there's this whole concern that there's going to be forced selling.

30:48So there's sort of that dynamic hanging over, you know, just the decline in those assets in particular. And so maybe it's not surprising that investors are seeking an alternative within the crypto space. Well, precisely. And nine days from now, the MSCI is going to decide whether names like strategy can remain as part of the index. You might see other forced selling as part of that. And then you've got XRP where there's just a lot more upside. And yes, they're coming from a lower base, but that's part of why when you saw the spot Bitcoin ETF selling off in Q4 and all these net outflows, XRP accumulation was quietly gaining momentum.

31:22I like the narrative on XRP, but I'm questioning the timing. To have banks doing cross-border payments and settlements with the blockchain to me still feels like quite a ways away. I mean, right now there's a lot of talks at the Bank for International Settlements and other multinational institutions about how do we have interoperability? How do we make this work? They haven't even figured out what the rails look like, what the rules of the road look like. Europe and the U.S. don't agree. God knows what China wants to do. So are you buying it now knowing that, again, I feel like broken record here with my copper comment.

31:56It's going to go down and up a lot. This is not a straight line at all. I feel like it's more of a hedge against the decision coming from MSCI. I think that's part of it, certainly. They want to be the swift of the international banking system. But at the same time, we're waiting for, to your point, rules of the road. And so the crypto market infrastructure bill, which we've been talking about for a full year now, is still in the markup stage in the Senate. But that is what a lot of pent-up demand is meant to come from when that is passed. It will open up the doors to what Wall Street can do with respect to custodian these coins.

32:28Mac, great to see you. Thank you. Mackenzie Cigalas. In town. In town. In person. IRL. Did you want to? No. We're good. All right. Coming up, 2025 was a big year for international investing, but are there still opportunities overseas? Rebecca Patterson is laying out what she's seeing and how to play the early action in the emerging markets. Fast Money is back in two.

32:53Welcome back to Fast Money. Oil majors like Exxon, Chevron, and Conoco pulling back after yesterday's rally. But precious metals higher again after the U.S. capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. Our guest trader continues to like gold but is not chasing the oil stocks. So what's your take on global markets, on the oil trade after what happened this weekend? Well, on oil, certainly the White House would like to see the U.S. capture, so to speak, more of the reserve opportunity in Venezuela. But if you look at the sentiment of the oil majors right now, Trump opened the door, but that doesn't mean they walk through the door, right?

33:25Prices are low. We've got Brent at around$61 a barrel, down 20 percent almost in the last year. You've got sentiment among the majors that's poor. If you look at the Dallas Fed quarterly survey, only a third of them are planning to increase CapEx this year, 20 percent planning to increase headcount this year. So this is not a group looking to take a lot of risk. And Venezuela is serious risk in terms of the politics, the government on the ground, et cetera. So, you know, are they going to continue rallying if there's no new opportunity for them and oil prices are lower? Even the U.S. government, the EIA, is forecasting Brent down another 10 percent this year.

34:04So that's why I'm not that eager to chase the oil companies. But what I am eager to do, Tim Seymour, you'll like this. OK, I'm here. Is yes, you, my friend. OK. I still like EM. Yeah. I'm with you on that. You know, they had a great year last year, and I think they're still upside for a lot, maybe not every country. Argentina's currency needs more intervention, I think, maybe. But generally, the emerging markets are doing pretty well. Now, the AI trade needs to keep working for things like South Korea to work. But Brazil is up year to date. Mexico's up year to date. Currency and stock market, despite Venezuela.

34:40Well, I think EM, which has outperformed the S &P by about 30 percent off of its lows, but certainly about 7 or 8 percent in the last month, is driven by a weaker Fed, better currencies, fiscal adjustments that were done. We're not in a global growth scare. We're actually probably in a period where there's some global acceleration. We're looking at EPS trends around the world that are better. So I like it, too. I do think certain parts of Asia are interesting. I think Latin America, not only is it fascinating for what's going on in Venezuela, but it's fascinating for Brazilian elections, Colombian elections in May.

35:14And if you expect to see a continuation of kind of failed socialist, democratic, political order, that could be a boom for Latin America, too. I think in the medium and long term, it's very bullish. I think in the short term, I like Latin America. I really do like Korea here. I do think also parts of just kind of the commodity trade attached to it is very good. Well, I think the fundamentals for oil stocks were in place before all this. But I understand what Rebecca is saying. But with that said, maybe the moves were exaggerated yesterday. But I think it's just to me just a matter of time before all these stocks do well.

35:47And EWZ from the beginning, January, January of last year, I do say said, yeah, well, that's what, you know, said. Yeah. Mel knows. Zed. Who's that? That's dead. Yeah. It's not a person. Zed is actually a person. Pulp Fiction. Zed is a person. Well, he was. He was. Zed is dead. Zed is dead. Zed is dead. Anyhow. A character, though. Yes. He's dead. Okay, so he's not alive. Sorry. No, don't get pulled into this. Do you think oil stocks do well, even though oil prices are going down? I believe so, yeah. Well, I don't. If they go much lower than 55 WTI, we have a problem, especially for domestic Permian people.

36:23But that is the EIA's forecast. That WTI does go low. The EIA is there with respect. They're not the greatest forecast. They sort of rival the Fed in terms of forecasting. But, you know, a static oil price here, given balance sheets, given fundamentals, and just given the margins, I think the stocks do well and valuations. All right. Coming up, Novo's weight loss pill has hit the markets. Rocio, Zach Bratano joins us next to detail the rollout on his platform, why he says it will spark a big year for GLP-1. Fast Money is back in the series.

36:54Welcome back to Fast Money. Novo Nordisk rising 2 % to lock in a third straight day in the green. shares adding to gains after the company's Wegovi pill hit the market yesterday. It's also the first time that any GLP-1 drug has launched direct to consumer on day one with Roe among Novo's chosen telehealth partners. For more on the launch, Rocio's Zach Reitano joins us here on set. Zach, welcome. Great to see you. Thanks for having me. So what have you seen on your own platform in terms of uptake and interest? There's a tremendous amount of demand, and I think, as you said, there's so many reasons to be excited about this.

37:22I think we're ushering in a new era of digital health care, right? So for the first time ever, a new oral GLP-1, it's the first and only, right? It's$149 for the first dose. We were talking about 18 months ago,$1 ,300. So it's come down 80 to 90 percent. From an efficacy perspective, for those on treatment, it matched the injectable. So patients aren't trading off anymore. And someone can now go from diagnosis to delivery in 48 hours or less. They see an ad, they go to Rho.co, it's at their home, and they can start for$149. So it's quite a special moment. I know it's early days, but what are you seeing in terms of people switching from the injectables versus the total addressable market actually growing?

38:00There's been talk of like, is this going to be cannibalistic? Is it going to expand the market? I think it's majority going to massively expand the market. You're going to see both the individuals that we think are best suited for the pill. And we've already seen this in Insights and already in 48 hours. You have a group of people who are needle hesitant or needle phobic, right? You have another group of maintainers, as you just mentioned. These are people who are going to switch from a GLP-1 injectable to the oral. And these are people who maybe they have some injection fatigue. Maybe it's cumbersome to travel with.

38:32But the larger market of the group that we refer to as GLP-1 curious. And these are people who have been, we think there's tens of millions of people who have been waiting on the sidelines. The majority of the U.S. population tries and fails to lose weight every year. And historically, they've been$400,$500 in an injectable. Now you have this$149 oral medication that has the same weight loss. It's far less intimidating, and we think that's going to bring a lot of people in. And the other thing that we think this will do, in addition to expanding the market, is dramatically reduce the stigma to taking prescription weight loss.

39:04Because you go from, are you on the shot, which a lot of people talk about, and ask to, which GLP-1 are you on? And when you go from a binary question to that spectrum, we think it will have a massive impact on that stigma. All right, so as you know, happy, robot-y, you know, goby guy here. You look great. Thank you. You get paid with it. Wait a minute. I don't get paid, but I just want the compliments here. No, but honestly, though, okay, so I've been on the shot for a while. Why would I take the pill? You know what I mean? Like, what is the thing, and what are you guys hearing about this? A lot of people do, and we've seen this in the data, where they'll be a little reluctant to take the injection, but then they get used to it.

39:40But you do see after a year or two years, not everyone, but some people do have injection fatigue, or they travel a lot, and it's a little cumbersome, or they take other pills, and they want to naturally fold this in. And I think that that is a perfect fit for the maintainers, for that group that's already on an injectable and prefers a pill. Do you foresee at some point where most people will not be on the injectables? I mean, it's going to come down to price probably and ease. I mean, it's a powerful combination to have in one product. Yeah, you're exactly right. When patients look at what product they want, they're looking at cost, quality, and convenience.

40:17It's can I afford it? What's the efficacy and how convenient it is? The amazing thing about Novos Pill here, in addition to launching on row, is that a patient isn't trading off, right? They have the same weight loss at 16%, 17%. It's less expensive, and for many, it's a preferred form factor. So I think you're going to see it as a massive entry point for a lot of people. On a multi-year time horizon, why would someone be on a pill or an injectable? you're going to see both preference, but also at those higher BMIs, you're going to see injectables where you're starting to see 20, 25, 30, even more weight loss.

40:51So for the patients that need that, they might start with a pill and see if they can get there and then upgrade to an injectable. So I think you're going to see more personalization over time as more options come to market. Are you already in talks with Eli Lilly about Orpho and offering that on your platform? I think you've seen both companies be quite proactive in the innovation around their distribution models, and I think you're seeing them take a very, very patient-centric approach here. Zach, great to see you. Thanks so much for having me. Thanks for sharing your insights. Zachary Tano of Rowe.

41:19We love Zach. Yeah. Novo, real quick, bearishable or reversal, I think, and if you look at where it traded down to, we got to levels we saw in the fall of 2022. I mean, for the longest time, we're trying to identify what might have been a bottom. We finally may have seen it. They report not that it matters on February 4th, but they finally seemingly have some wind behind their back. And the announcement by the FDA a month or so ago really was part of that move. And again, what Zach just explained in terms of what makes this interesting is the dynamic of accessibility. But then get it back to Novo.

41:49One of the biggest issues they had in round one of when this thing was soaring is their limited ability to produce and keep up with demand. And they've invested heavily in production that I think this time might be different. I'm long the stock. I actually believe in this as a major player and a major move higher from here. I think we've just begun to fight in the stock. I think what is sort of if you think about the accessibility now of these treatments, the longer term cost of health care is going to come down dramatically if that total addressable market actually expands. Let's hope. Yeah. Yeah.

42:22No, that would be great. We need it. Coming up, an IPO revival. 2025 saw over 200 startups make their market debut. But could this year be even bigger? The companies to watch, including what could be the largest IPO ever. More Fast Money in two.

42:42Welcome back to Fast Money. Nominations are officially open for CNBC's annual Disruptor 50 list, and many of the previous honorees could be getting ready to hit the public markets this year. Julia Borson is here. I mean, you've got to clap Julia. Come on, you've got to clap Julia. With a look at the return of the IPO and what lies ahead, Julia. Well, it's great to be here. The most enthusiastic show I've seen by far. Now, as the IPO market slowly makes a comeback, the Disruptor 50 list gives us a snapshot of which companies could go public next. Now, 2025 had more than 200 IPOs. That's the highest number since 2021, which had 397.

43:18Last year, five Disruptor 50 companies went public. Figma, Navon, Chime, Klarna and Wealthfront with the total current market capitalization of$46 billion. So now the IPO market is expected to open up even further. Renaissance Capital estimating that this year there will be between 200 and 230 IPOs. SpaceX, which topped the list twice with a current valuation of$800 billion, has an 85 % chance of filing for an IPO this year, according to Calci. Now, it's reportedly targeting a$1.5 trillion IPO this year, which would be the largest IPO ever by far. Now, a number of other Disruptor 50 companies could also file to go public this year, including numbers three and four on last year's list.

44:05Databricks and Anthropic, along with Discord, which last made the list back in 2024. CalShe predicts around a 60 to 70 percent chance for those companies to file for an IPO before year end. So which companies are going to be the next round of IPOs? Keep an eye on the next Disruptor 50 list. Nominations are now open at CNBC.com slash disruptors. Interesting. Anthropic is up there. There are some questions about OpenAI. OpenAI was on the list, correct? It has been on the list. It was number one on the list. Last year, we had Palantir number one on the list. They're expected to go public eventually.

44:40So I think for a lot of these companies, I'm sorry, not Palantir, Andrel on the list. Palantir, a previous disruptor that also went public. But the defense, the reason I said Palantir is because the defense tech sector was really prominent on last year's list and was, you know, number one, had the number one spot last year and is expected to continue to be prominent this year. Julia, great to see you in person. Great to be here. I.R.O. Princeton. Tremendous. Yes. Yes. You know, Andrel, which that would be so interesting. We're so sick of talking about the same four defense contractors for the last 50 years.

45:12And this is one of the most innovative companies out there. And, you know, aside from SpaceX and these ones that are going to come at a trillion dollar, I want to see some of these smaller companies. I want to see like five, six, seven trillion billion dollar market cap companies. Like the non-unicorn. Yeah, my good friend Jeff Richards at Notable, and he's a VC, and he was just telling me today there's just dozens and dozens of really innovative companies that people like you on CNBC aren't even thinking about or talking about. I want to see those. I want to talk about those. But all of this, of course, goes to the bank trade, which has been at record highs.

45:39And we just had the Hebrew, I mean, Hebrew hammer call, Matt Freed. That's his nickname. Right, yeah. I'm just saying. No, I love him. He's clear. They said, what's going on with Goldman Sachs? He works there. I'm like, exactly what you're just saying. I mean, Goldman is going higher. Yeah. I mean, in banks, we've got a regulatory backdrop. We've got a steep yield curve. We've got a consumer that's hanging in there. And now we have IPOs. Banks are going to benefit. Up next, Final Trades.

46:10Let's go around the horn. Tim. Yeah, gold, copper, iron ore, you name it. Rio Tinto has it, and they produce it, and I love the balance sheet. Rebecca, great to have you. Thank you. KBW, I think we have a nice window for the banks still even here. Dan. Yeah, Home Depot. I think it's putting a near-term bottom. Keith. GDX, sister. All right, thanks for watching Fast. See you back here tomorrow at 5. Mad Money with Jim Kramer starts right now.

46:40All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet, or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such.

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