Fast Money 11/24/25

0:02Live from the Nasdaq market site in the heart of New York City's Times Square on a day where tech grip tire. This is Fast Money. Here's what's on tap tonight. Alphabet's record-breaking run. Shares of the Google parent turning things around since last summer, leaving some other tech high flyers in the dust. But will the outperformance continue? We'll debate that. Quasanovo no-go. The trial results weighing on shares of the pharma stock, while other results are pushing competitors into the green. And later, plenty of storage as memory makers get a boost. Drivers behind the wheel and behind on payments as auto delinquencies speed higher in a Bitcoin bounce back.

0:35Can crypto stage a holiday rebound? I'm Melissa Lee. I'm the Alaskan Studio B at the Nasdaq. On the desk tonight, Tim Seymour, Karen Feinerman, Dan Nathan, and Guy Adami. First, the AI trade revival helping drive today's market comeback. The Nasdaq seeing its best day since May, posting a nearly 600-point gain, higher by almost 2.7 percent. The S &P 500 and Dow also charging higher. Alphabet, a key driver for today's gains, up more than 6 percent. The tech giant closing at a record high. Google's now up almost 12 percent over the past week as the company announced its upgraded AI model Gemini 3.

1:10Alphabet's strong gains comes as other AI darlings, Oracle, Meta, Microsoft, they faltered of late. So far this month, Alphabet is up 13 percent, while Oracle is off nearly 24 percent. So is Alphabet's rebound a good or bad sign for the rest of the AI trade? Are we seeing any kind of rotation here, do you think, Dan? Definitely rotation. I mean, we've been mentioning this. A handful of the Mag 7 have underperformed not only their peers, but also the S &P 500. And, you know, the thing about Alphabet is really interesting. There's a lot of moving parts there. Right. And, you know, for those folks and Karen's going to obviously speak about her thesis that she's had for multiple years is that, you know, this thing has made considerable progress from a really bad rollout.

1:49I don't know if you guys recall. Barred. And it was a joke. And one day we walked in and the stock was down like six percent. And everyone's like looking around. They're like, yeah, they're in Paris and they had this thing and it was just a bad, bad rollout. And this was coming right after the chat GPT rollout. Well, obviously, things have changed. There's been naysayers the whole way. But right now you have a situation where, yes, they've gotten tremendous reviews. You think about their distribution. They have six or seven platforms with over two billion users. Right. For them to kind of infuse this technology throughout all of them.

2:17That's great. They still have the issue of these overlays and AI mode. It might put a dent a little bit into that search revenue. I know that's been one pillar of the bear case. But when you talk about a stock that's moved this way in such a short period of time, there should be some sort of check back. And I don't mean just on price, but I also mean as far as sentiment is concerned. So I look at this thing. I see it trading at like 27 times forward, 28 times forward. And you have growth that's not really accelerating. Now, that's the good thing. If the numbers right now, consensus is just too low, then there's more room to run.

2:51I'm not so sure that's the case. I'm not so sure analysts are able to make that case right here, right now for 2026. I mean, if you thought 28 or 29 was expensive for Alphabet, it's really closer to 30 with this run. I mean, that's how much it's gained in terms of the market, excuse me, the forward P.E. Yeah. Although when you say it's not going to grow, I mean, I think if you look at the numbers for Google Cloud, which, you know, admittedly, much, much, much smaller, you know, a fraction of the size of search. But that's growing. I mean, it's grown 50 percent. Right. But their margins next year are supposed to, like, check down, like, 2 percent.

3:23Right. Like, so those are still some really good margins. Right. But they're going the wrong way. I mean, like, as far as I'm concerned. And I'm not debating. I mean, like, the stock's been amazing. You know what I mean? But I'm just saying, like, when you think about the growth that is expected, earnings and sales, I mean, the earnings growth is, like, high single digits. You know what I mean? And so you're going to need to see some sort of meaningful upgrade to earnings expectations, especially in a margin environment that's expected to kind of weaken a bit. It's been an extraordinary run. It was not expected.

3:49I mean, we've had multiple conversations since July on this desk about suddenly their core search being dead. Then suddenly you have Gemini, multiple iterations getting better. You have this DOJ settlement that at least makes it clear that Google is whatever turf they've carved out is still theirs. And that's, as we know, good for multiple players. But I think you just get to this case where it was so oversold. It was so underappreciated. And the analyst community, which knew Gemini 3 updates were coming out here, suddenly seems to somehow have been caught behind. So I think it's interesting. I think for the markets overall, the fact that we have mega cap tech having been so poor outside of Google and Broadcom over the last six to eight weeks is very good for the market going into year.

4:33I think there are a lot of people that wanted to buy Amazon here. I think there are a lot of people that are looking at Microsoft and saying, you know, let's do this. And by the way, after bouncing off the 100-day, the semiconductors or the socks or whatever you're following, SMH, is up 9 % from the intraday low on Friday, which just tells you you can't get too far away from this trade. And people that are trying to be overly tactical one way or the other, I think this was another missed opportunity. So, Serge, I mean, we talked about the fears are definitely overblown at the moment. We don't know exactly how it's going to evolve.

5:04But remember, though, they so everybody's in this CapEx spend. And that's been the fear. The Google balance sheet of all of them is still net cash. It's this is not a drain on them at all. Now, could they fund it through through debt? That's probably makes more sense for them to do that. But also talk about YouTube. I don't think YouTube, the sum of the parts valuation, I don't think is getting really enough play as it should. So there's YouTube, there's Waymo, other bets, which is a negative. I don't know how much to think of that. The balance sheet with net cash still. And then we haven't seen yet anything close to what the monetization of AI could be for them.

5:41Right. We've probably seen it somewhat in search and how well search is done. But and I think Tim's right. It really was overdone. I mean, and the remedy to the first part of the end of trust was much better than we thought. But all that having been said, I'm looking now to sell some upside calls because I think it's run so far so fast. Is it overvalued? Is it overvalued? No, but I feel like it's a little ahead of itself. And the calls are, you know, the skew is very much in favor of the calls. So I've looked to sell some. Yeah, I think that's right. And Tim said tactical. I don't think 28 times it's overvalued.

6:18I think a move of more than 100 % since the April low is a little bit extreme, even in the environment that we find ourselves in. So I think it's worthy of the valuation. I think the move is overdone. I think you probably do see a back and fill at some point. And where is that back and fill to? Maybe 275-ish if you look. That's sort of a level on the chart as well. But I think they're growing into a valuation. I think the average price target now is 325. We're basically there now. So I think valuation is okay. It's just the magnitude of the move in a short period of time that is somewhat concerning.

6:49I also think it's, you know, we keep talking about when are the payoffs coming from all of these investments. Gemini 3 right away goes right inserted. It goes right into search. And I think the search audience, I think the users are going to continue to see benefit. And that's going to pay off. And as Karen said, we don't really even know how that feeds through to more monetization. But at this point, they are monetizing. I mean, in terms of the numbers, monthly active users for Gemini 3 are actually pretty high compared to OpenAI. I mean, OpenAI has 800, and Gemini is 650. Yeah, I was at 450 not long ago.

7:24Right. It's a swift catch up there. I guess I wouldn't think about it against OpenAI right now. It doesn't really matter because they're not monetizing their user base other than subscriptions. And so Google doesn't have to worry about that. Now, obviously, a lot of us are paying for Gemini right now. and their hope is that it becomes ubiquitous across all their platforms. In the near term, the more usage at a Gemini relative to traditional search might be a problem. We haven't seen this sort of growth out of it. We haven't seen the sort of models that a lot of folks are saying are that much better than ChatGPT.

7:56It was Mark Benneval from Salesforce today talking about he's no longer using ChatGPT. He's only using Gemini. We might start seeing that a lot more. That might be a point of leverage as some of these companies are thinking about licensing this technology or infusing it into some of their offerings. So again, I think there's going to be a lot of noise about this. I do think in the near term, you run some risk of that cannibalization of that traditional search, especially as this accelerates. At the same time, as Gemini 3 ascends and OpenAI is out there, there might be some questions about OpenAI's growth.

8:27And so to the extent that there are some questions about its ability to raise money, that sort of breaks that whole virtuous cycle, right, of it being able to tap debt and pay for all these different things that it is paying for or get money from NVIDIA and the like? I mean, it sort of puts that into question, right? Well, it used to be they were all in this together. Right. And I'm not sure that's fully true, right? And how could it ever be, right? These aren't folks that play in the same sandbox too well. But earlier we were afraid about, is it Atlas OpenAI Search? Right. Right? We were afraid of that.

9:01At the moment, that doesn't seem to be a... Browser search. Yeah, browser. And then perplexity has one also called Comet. So, and I use perplexity and I really don't use Comet. But so I think to, you know, Atlas not being really a threat at the moment, I do think that is to Google's benefit. Now, would there also be some open AI Google revenue that might not happen? Maybe. But they're not all going to be winners. Yeah. Ben Reitz has had an interesting note today. I don't know if you read the note from today. Remember, he was on the show, and he was talking about the Kodak moment that Google would face.

9:41Potential for. Potential for, because of the search business being in danger. But today he's saying, let's say Google wins. Let's say Gemini wins. It is the most vertically integrated player out there. And so they are less likely to lean on the likes of an NVIDIA. They have this TPU that they have developed on their own, and they use Broadcom. So that's why we saw Broadcom shares trade higher today. But, I mean, they have their own sort of ecosystem. So they box people out here if they win. I think that's right. They have the dominant desktop and dominant mobile position. In other words, you've got Google wherever you want it.

10:15And that is where I think we always said, and this is where I also believe it pays off for Apple, because I think this is a prelude to where ultimately it is going to be carried out on the consumer basis. We know what's going on with enterprise. But that is part of the story here. And add in these other pieces of Google, which don't get enough credit. And Google is a holding company. Any holding company will trade at a discount, but there's some pretty powerful pieces in here we're not valuing as we should. You know, Karen said she's going to sell upside calls. That's right. She's not. And, you know, again, going back to tactical, she's not going to try to trade around this.

10:46I'm not trying to put words in her mouth. I think inevitably this stock trades higher. When I say higher, I mean, they could be deserving of a 32, 33 multiple in this environment because other companies are in half the position that Google finds themselves in. My only concern is the magnitude of the move since April is astounding by any stretch. It's gone from less than a$2 trillion market cap to approaching four. That's pretty significant in a short period of time. It will back and fill at some point. Yeah, it's interesting the Broadcom point that you guys made. So the Custom Silicon, they work with Google, the TPUs.

11:20I mean, Google obviously still buys GPUs from NVIDIA, but they'd probably love for the performance of the TPUs to match or be better than that. and they're making their chips and they're vertically integrated, that sort of thing. But Broadcom trades, you know, relative to its growth of PEG, a PE to growth of like one, you know, and it's growing much faster than most other names in the ecosystem. The stock has definitely consolidated over the last couple of months. You see a move like today, 11 percent on this news. I'm not sure that makes sense. It just feels like a lot of investors, obviously, over the last couple of weeks kind of got a little off sides here a little bit.

11:52But it's a tough trade. The higher they go up into year end over the next month, I think it makes it that much harder for 2026. And again, this goes back to look at some of the underperformance we've seen. Microsoft's up less than the NASDAQ. You see Amazon up a few percent on the year. You see Meta up a few percent on the year. You see Tesla up a few percent on the year. And you can say that's good for broader tech. I think it's good. Yeah. Well, I mean, you see Broadcom. You see Taiwan Semi. You see some of these other names in the semi space. But again, I'm not sure that power is a 25 percent gain next year because of the concentration of all these big names.

12:24If you continue to see some underperformance. All right. Meantime, we did get fresh headlines today on U.S.-China relations. President Trump announcing he will be visiting Beijing in April after a phone call with China Xi Jinping. Eamon Javers has got the details on this. Eamon. Hey there, Melissa. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told his citizens in an address tonight that negotiations in Geneva over the weekend involved, quote, difficult, extremely detailed work. But he said that the number of points in the 28-point American proposal have now been cut down and that many correct things, as he put it, have been taken into account after those negotiations.

13:00Still, it's not clear where all of this is going to wind up. We've been expecting Secretary Rubio to brief President Trump at the White House late today. And President Trump said on social media this morning that it is possible that good things may happen in those Ukraine negotiations. And we now know that Ukraine was at least part of what President Trump spoke to Chinese leader Xi Jinping about in that phone call earlier today. Here's what White House Press Secretary Caroline Levitt told reporters this afternoon. The focus of the call was really Russia, Ukraine did come up, but the focus was mainly on the trade deal that we are working on with China and those relations and how they are moving in a positive direction.

13:41And President Trump took to social media this afternoon to announce that he will be accepting President Xi's offer to go to Beijing for a state visit early in 2026 and that the Chinese leader will reciprocate with a visit of his own later in the year. The Chinese readout of the call offered one detail that the American side did not offer, which is that in addition to discussing the future of an independent Taiwan. That was in the conversation today. According to the Chinese side, she told Trump that Taiwan's return to China is an integral part of the post-war international order. So Taiwan, Ukraine, all in the mix in that call, Melissa.

14:20Yeah. Eamon, thank you. Eamon Javers. It does seem like it would be good news that there's some progress in terms of relations being thought. But when it comes to Taiwan, that's a big issue that, you know, there's a stark difference here in terms of where we stand, the U.S., and where China stands. And I'm sure that Xi loves the Putin model on this one. And, by the way, I'm glad that they eventually got to talk about U.S.-China trade rather than U.S. and China discussing Ukraine, Russia. I mean, and I get what's going on here, but the original details of that peace deal were, I think the last people that were consulted were Ukrainians.

14:58For more on the markets, let's bring in Stuart Kaiser, Citi's head of U.S. equity trading strategy. Stu, great to see you with us. In terms of what we saw today, what was it? What was this big rally in tech all about? I mean, you know, part of it was the Google headlines, I think, that you all discussed. Part of it was we'd had a tough week and, you know, things got a little bit solid. It looks like retail stepped back in a little bit today. Retail favorite stocks are up about 5.5%, which is a pretty large move. That said, you know, not all clean. You know, S &P advance declined was negative. you know, MAG7 equal weight was up 3.5%, the rest of the 493 wasn't.

15:31So it kind of just looks like last week you had a pretty aggressive selling of market leadership, whether you want to call that tech or growth or AI. And today we got a little bit of bounce into that. Could be seasonals, but it does seem like a couple of positive headlines to your point. You know, Friday, we kind of maybe sold off a little too much and were coming back. And then getting retail back involved was a positive as well. It seemed to me that Bitcoin had sort of an outsized involvement in the markets, sentiment and trading. And over the weekend, it seemed to stabilize and actually had a decent run.

15:59Do you think that's so or just coincidental? Look, investors are definitely focused on it. I think on Friday, there was a view that Bitcoin actually led a little bit of the move lower. And then obviously, that's a big retail asset as well. It's hard to know because Bitcoin is so tricky because it doesn't have a fair value. So I think a lot of times it just gets blamed and credited for a lot of stuff because there's not an easy way to put the stake in the ground. But I think it's positive in the sense that it had been negative for risk sentiment. It does suggest retail under pressure and seeing that kind of stabilize over the weekend, I think just gave the market confidence this wasn't a market flush going on.

16:32It was it was maybe just more of a little bit of indigestion. Still, we're just talking about U.S., China, Taiwan came up. If Taiwan is some sort of pawn in this global chess match that's willing to be sacrificed, that's significant, I would think. Does that factor into any of the work you're doing now? Well, I'm more of a checkers guy, so I'm going to stay out of that global chess match. Look, I think anything that brings geopolitical tensions down is a positive. I think as far as China-U.S., the bottom line is I think both sides kind of, for lack of a better term, believe in mutually assured destruction.

17:03And they realize that this goes way off the rails in either direction, whether it's geopolitics or whether it's trade, that's a net negative. And from a market's perspective, what that's done is it's narrowed down your range of outcomes to, frankly, a range that people can risk adjust and trade around. So I think generally speaking, any weakness on China-U.S. headlines is still a buy-the-dip opportunity, and we're going to kind of pursue it that way until proven otherwise. So, Stu, you mentioned the 7 and the 493 and the sort of performance that you're seeing. You know, you have great insight on your desk, but you specifically, are hedge funds getting a bit more choosy about these names?

17:37We know that they're still powering a lot of the gains, but, you know, when you see a meta and Microsoft acts the way they have over the last month or so, are you seeing that? Is that evident to you, or is it more a retail thing? Oh, I think institutions are definitely getting a little more circumspect about this. They're auditing the AI trade in a little bit more of an aggressive way. And, like, Oracle is the poster child for that, just given what's gone on with those credit spreads. And, you know, Karen made the point earlier about balance sheet. I think the worst balance sheet in the MAG-7 is AA-, right?

18:05You know, Oracle's BBB, and there are other tech companies that have a lot of spending commitments that are rated lower than that. So, yeah, I think you're getting, you know, some circumspection about, hey, what is the spending? What is your balance sheet strength? And also, you know, prove it to me. You know, show me you can actually generate some revenue off of this. So, yeah, I definitely think there's a little bit going on on that side of things. And frankly, if you look at MAG 7 as a percent of S &P year to date, it's only about 40 percent of the market cap gain. So the trade has broadened out.

18:36And I think now that you're seeing some cracks in it, people are maybe questioning some of that broadening out and going maybe stock by stock and saying, where am I comfortable being out there and where am I a little less comfortable. Stu, great to have you. Great. Thank you. Thank you. Stu Kaiser, Citi. Tim, we didn't mention with Stu the Fed meeting, but, you know, add that to the mix. And I'm wondering where you think we are in terms of pricing of the risk of the Fed meeting. I've got the sense that the market's reversal on Friday and that 8 % in semis or 4 % in the NASDAQ off those intraday lows is all about the Fed, I think, between being oversold.

19:08And it seems as if, again, the messaging you've gotten from a Fed that I think the most important folks want to at least be. I think I think Peter Bookfar even spoke about how Fed's John Williams. We did this, I think, on Friday. You know, he doesn't make that statement if it's not at least an approved statement, which doesn't mean he's not an independent person in all of this. But I think the Fed is very powerful. I guess I just feel as if some technical factors, some holiday factors, some oversold factors. And again, that 100 day that everything bounced off of was really important. And weakness out of those big five of those seven is bullish for stocks.

19:45Coming up, a storage surge. The memory makers with a major push higher today, where Wall Street thinks the group is heading from here. Plus, the headlines behind today's pharma moves, the upgrades and trial results, swing Novo, Bayer, Merck and more do not go anywhere. Fast Money is back in two.

20:04Welcome back to Fast Money. Novo Nordisk dropping 5.5%, now trading at more than four-year lows. The company out with disappointing data on Wagovi's potential to treat Alzheimer's. The drug failing to show a slowdown in disease progression is not any better than the placebo. Meantime, some bright spots in the sector as well. Bristol-Myers popping over 3 % of strong blood thinner data from rival Bayer, validates expectations for its own drug for stroke prevention. And Merck up nearly 3 percent, upgraded to outperform at Wells Fargo on optimism around its pipeline build. For more on the moves, Mizuho health care strategist Jared Holes joins us here on set.

20:39Jared, great to have you with us. It felt like the bar was sort of low when it comes to Novo and the Alzheimer's data, and yet the stock is moving this much lower. I mean, what do you need to see at this point? What do we, I mean, is it a value trap here? I think you just need to see some resurrection of its obesity drug in terms of revenue, right? Like, it's hard to believe we're at four to five year lows in the stock. It's almost as though they would have been better off not even having an obesity drug if they knew that the street was going to treat it this horribly if they were second fiddle to Lilly.

21:13So that's why, and we've spoken about this before, Like I've been terming it Moderna 2.0 because at the top of its success, they kind of stood still. And now, you know, years later, they're trying to kind of, you know, recoup and build out and with the pipeline and whatever. But I think it's just going to take a little bit of share gains on the part of Wegovi versus Zepbound and go from there. But it's been startling to see the demise of what was a couple of years ago like the darling in the sector. Yeah. So I'm surprised sort of at the magnitude. Certainly early this morning, the magnitude of the move was kind of shocking that you would think, oh, there's 12 and change times PE.

21:50But 12 percent of that was really on the hope of this drug, Alzheimer's drug, which didn't make any sense. Right. How significant did you think this drug should be? I mean, that was my take, Karen, when I saw the data this morning. I thought maybe down 5 percent. That's what I wrote very early on. I thought it overshot. I didn't expect this to be a super positive trial. I think those that were optimistic were looking for some pockets, maybe some patient populations within the trial to show promise. But I think investors thought the up-down on this was up 20, down 5. And so when I saw the data this morning, I'm like, okay, maybe this is a minus 5 % day.