Fast Money 11/25/25

0:02Live from the Nasdaq market site in the heart of New York City's Times Square this is fast money. Here's what's on tap tonight. The consumer coming back to life. We're just days away from a big black Friday and the discretionary sector is shrugging off some weak data to help power the S &P. What we are seeing out of retail with the countdown to Christmas ticking lower and the latest read into data center demand. The AI trade is accelerating, but can the power players keep up? We'll talk to the CEO of a data center operator to find out the real problem facing the space and later Dell on the move after reporting results, binging on some Netflix technicals and a$50 billion robotics company surging.

0:38The name of the details straight ahead. I'm Melissa Lee. Come to you live from Studio B at the NASDAQ. On the desk tonight, Tim Seymour, Carter Wirth, Dan Nathan, and Guy Adami. We begin with fresh signs of life in the consumer trade just three days before Black Friday. Discretionary Sox, the second best performing sector today, now up nearly 4 % on the week, even as we got disappointing retail sales and confidence data this morning. Today is leading, coming from all parts of Spending Map, Chipotle, Ralph Lauren, in Williams-Sonoma, Lulu, and Home Depot, all seeing big gains. And then there are outsized moves today in Abercrombie & Fitch up 38%.

1:12Kohl's soaring 43 % and Best Buy closing 5 % higher. Lots of folks replacing, apparently, their video game consoles, laptops, and cell phones. Check out the XRT, the retail ETF closing out its best day in more than eight months. And it couldn't have come at a better time for holiday shopping season hopes. So with less than one month left, here are the bells. There it is. In the countdown to Christmas, have we been too quick to stick a proverbial fork in the consumer? Oh, that's a jingle bell. Yeah, jingle bells, sleigh bells. Because we're in the window now. Monday is December 1st. I know. It's crazy, right?

1:48All day season. Look at me. DFT. Excuse me? I forget it. I've forgotten. You know, we say all the time on this show, we never underestimate the U.S. consumers want to spend. They'll spend under just about every circumstance. and you're starting to see numbers that support it. I will say, though, it's clear the have and the have-nots in the space, and I think Carter can speak to this. The fact that Walmart's been at the same price now for months suggests to me we're about to take the next leg higher. One of the things I say all the time is the market does not give you this much time to sell the highs, which in this case means we're probably going higher.

2:22TJ Maxx we've talked about forever, lower left, upper right. That continues to work. Maybe Target getting off the mat for a trade here could finally happen. I'll say this, Costco, out of all of them, might have held a very important level. That stock has not bounced in a while. That might be a place to look. Look at Guy playing technical analyst when he comes to Walmart. Do you feel usurped Carter? Never, never. I mentioned his name. The charts are available to all, right? Now, the question is how you interpret them. But anyway, I think properly done, meaning is this stock in a position to break out, having been range bound for the better part of a year?

2:56Yes. But I think if you look at the stocks that were cited as we talked about what came to life today, they have one common feature. They're all huge laggards, right? So the XRT, this is a little bit of people maybe moving out of some of the high flyers and trying to catch a bid in something that's been beaten up. Restaurants, as we know, are making 15-year relative lows to the S &P, a lot of damage done. So I'm not sure I'd read that much into it. Remember, the XRT itself is still below where it was in 2021. I mean, that's bad stuff. Or maybe we just wrote off the consumer too soon. I mean, it's not just XRT.

3:31It's, as we mentioned, we also had, for instance, travel stocks. They were higher. Restaurant stocks. Anything consumer-facing was higher today. And that's the point, is what is the consumer spending their money on? And I'm a broken record on this stuff. I don't, you know, not me. Guy doesn't need another pair of Crocs. He doesn't need another pair of Birkenstocks. He doesn't need another Lululemon outfit. But I do think we need to travel. I do think we're going to travel. I do think there are parts of the services, hotel travel, that I think was overdone. I think the airlines in with the GDP updates we're getting in the sense we have on the economy is I want to own airline stocks, especially stocks that have invested just like Walmart.

4:10Airlines have invested in technology. Airlines are running at better margins and better efficiencies. So I like the travel trade. I think this is the proverbial whatever kind of animal you want to call this of a bounce. I think that's what you're getting in some of these highest profile brand discretionary names. I'll sell them to somebody else. Yeah, you know, it's interesting that Nike had a great day today, right? It sold off a lot. And this is on a day where Tim's Dicks really reported a mixed quarter there, a lot of weakness in Foot Locker, which I think is kind of interesting. So when you kind of look at that on two sides of the coin, brands can do okay, but some of the weaker outlets like a Foot Locker is probably weighing things down a little bit.

4:47But the other thing about Nike is like coming up, this is a year we're going to have the Olympics. We're going to have the World Cup. This is really I mean, the stock usually trades well into these sorts of events. But I know, you know, I think you had to look at some of these brands that didn't rally. Best Buy had a good day today. Yeah. Like, you know, a Dick's didn't. So I think investors are getting a bit more discerning about what are some of these plays into the holidays, but also where the turnarounds really working. By the way, we like disclosures on the show. So I just I'm not long Dick's.

5:15Right. Dan must be concerned about us. No, I just think it's really interesting on a day that we saw Coles, we saw Best Buy, we saw this. And obviously Dix is trying to turn around this footlocker business. And, you know, Nike's acting well, footlocker and Dix are not. But Nike's in the same boat as Puma, Adidas. They're all, you know, down and to the right and are struggling. So it's more, I don't think it's idiosyncratic to Nike. It's just a general high-end sneaker or famous sneaker brand problem. Remember, last night we had Lox Ganapathy on from Unicus Research. She talked about consumer spending and that the consumer, even as negative as she was in the longer term in terms of the credit for consumers, she believed the consumer would spend no matter what.

5:54100%. Because you still want to give Christmas. Spend gifts for the next two months. Right. Is that a reason to go buy these stocks, Guy? Yeah, is it?

6:03Sorry. Sorry, Mel. Is it? Well, you don't think so. I don't think so. Let's play it out. For a trade. For a trade? Yes. Well, I'll say Walmart for a trade, I think for an investment as well. I'll say, I'll throw one at you. Lululemon, which has been sort of making this rounded bottom now for a while, they report on December 4th, which I believe is next Thursday. I think that sets up well because if they say anything even remotely positive, given the sell-off they haven't given, basically, the unanimous disdain for this name, that's soccer rally easy 15%, 20%. So Lululemon turnings looks good to me.

6:36You know, it's interesting. Taking that conversation last night, I mean, She talked a lot about buy now, pay later. You know, Klarna went public earlier this year. It can't get out of its own way. It almost immediately broke its IPO price and has found new lows almost every day. And then Affirm is also not traded particularly well. I just thought those trades, you know, should be kind of associated one versus the other. And the one name we haven't even talked about is Tim's Apple. I mean, when you think about Apple, it's the ultimate consumer trade. And I'm not so sure it's discretionary anymore, right?

7:05There's a little of the utilitarian nature of it. And they probably get$200 billion in sales here in the U.S. alone. We like disclosures on the show. So full disclosure, I am actually long Apple. So whether it is because it's a discretionary purchase that there's always another dollar for or not, I think the story around Apple is it's under-owned. I think it is defensive. And I do think that rotation that we talked about on the OT is what you're seeing also in mega cap tech land. There's also a narrative in the past, at least, during upgrade cycles, that for Christmas, you often buy, what, a new phone, a pair of iPods, you know.

7:41Slippers. Right. No. When Apple products that are expensive and you might not buy other things. Follow with me, Tim. Sorry. Yeah, there's no question that the crowding out of, say, the spend of the wallet certainly has favored electronics. And in some sense, this is maybe a good tell for Best Buy. I just I know that the holiday season takes up such a disproportionate amount of mind share. And certainly its importance to the retailers is critical. I think you're going to see a solid holiday season. But that's not a reason to go buy some of these stocks. Walmart. What do you see here for Walmart versus Target?

8:19Well, that's the endless. There's nothing new to say. Let's just say that one is prospering. One is struggling. Right. And I would just stay away from the thing that's struggling. Bottoms take time. Right. And so there is no indication that the stock is bottoming. But if you want to, and Guy mentioned Lululemon, a textbook bearish to bullish reversal buy is Capri. That's Michael Kors, Jimmy Choo, Versace, a really beaten up name at five, six-year lows. And that's all the elements of a proper turn. All right. For more on consumers and the retail trade, let's bring in Oliver Chen, senior retail analyst at TD Cowan.

8:54Oliver, great to have you with us. it seems like all retailers right now are talking about consumers being choiceful. So who benefits from that sort of ongoing theme in the retail sector of a choiceful consumer? Yeah, Melissa, happy holidays. We're excited about Walmart. Walmart has consumers looking for value in everyday low prices. Walmart's also capturing that high household income shopper as well. And the technology story at Walmart is significant because of digital advertising as well as the marketplace. So lots to love about what Walmart is doing, and value remains very important. The shopper is definitely being choiceful.

9:36The shoppers are looking for joy, but they're struggling, and consumer confidence is very mixed. We're also seeing a lot of bifurcation, meaning intense pressure at the middle and low end, and a much stronger, higher household income customer. And that higher income customer is holding up the economy as well as spending. Costco is another idea that we like as well. And Levi's and Denim and what's happening with classics with the twist, that's working too. Oliver, it seems like valuation finally caught up to Costco six or so months ago because the stock is not performing on what's been a pretty good tape.

10:13Is it an inflection point here for Costco? Can you get your arms around the valuation? Yeah, we're excited about what's ahead with Costco, particularly because they can do more with technology, such as adding more features to the marketplace and taking better advantage of e-commerce. We also think this is a resilient business model that's very vertically integrated with global expansion. And in many ways, it's not a retailer. It's a renewal model in terms of the membership income. And it has iconic brands such as Kirkland, where people are trading into these brands looking for tremendous value.

10:46So at a 44 times P.E., it's expensive but worth it, given that we view the comps and the traffic to be industry leading and for that to continue. And this thing can get as high as 50 times plus in terms of price to earnings ratio. So bottom line, expensive but worth it. And it's an iconic membership model with a lot of stickiness given 93 percent renewal rates. Can you walk us through what you think will be the cadence of promotions this holiday season? And it does seem like it's been a prolonged Black Friday period. It's probably a week, not just a day of Black Friday sales. Are we to expect more promotions as we go on?

11:27Or are they sort of laying all out there up front, hoping that consumers will lock in their purchases early? Yeah, Melissa, it's as much as three to four weeks this year. And it's more like Black November in terms of what's happening versus just Black Friday. So a lot of the deals are planned. It's less panic, more planning in terms of what's happening with both shoppers and retailers. So we're seeing clearer deals at 20 % to 50 % off from really sharp opening price points. And retailers have done a good job managing inventories more tightly. It was a more panic situation last year. Bottom line is things have started earlier with Amazon and Amazon Prime.

12:08So Black Friday, multiple weeks. But we still should have excitement on Friday and some incrementality. But the deals have started now. There's a little less dramatic excitement with stampedes in the past versus a much more relaxed Omni kind of experience this year and going and ongoing. Hey, Oliver, Tim, like the stash, by the way. So high end is great. The low end, not so good. What do we do with some of these iconic brands that seem like they're somewhere in the middle? And again, whether you're talking about a retailer like a Best Buy or a Home Depot or you're talking about a discretionary apparel item, whether it's we spend a lot of time on Lulu.

12:47But there are brands out there that are seen as middle to upper middle. What's going on in that space? Yeah, Tim, today we saw a big move in Kohl's, and that's a very middle income retailer. So what's been happening is better than feared results, meaning less negative results, are really driving stocks higher. That's something we're watching, although we still expect negative trends at Kohl's, which has persisted for many years. And we're watching negative comps at Target. There's a difference between a great company versus a great stock, and expectations are fairly low. The middle income consumer is getting pressured by interest rates, consumer confidence, unemployment and youth confidence as well.

13:31So it's a tougher place to be. That doesn't mean you can't make money on a better than feared scenario. But we have hold ratings on a lot of these stocks, including Kohl's, including Macy's, where the middle has been a tougher place to be. What happens to Target then, Oliver, in your view? Yeah, what Target really needs to do is continue to move forward with technology, bring a lot more joy into shopping, meaning innovating their private brands and Target. But critically, home. Home has been very negative, over negative 5 % to 7%. And the home category has tons of volatility, and they need to adjust their supply chain to offer lots of speed there.

14:09So Target can do it, and we all love it. And I was there yesterday, and I bought plenty of things there. But Target needs to get shoppers, needs to get more traffic, and needs to invest properly in its supply chain to drive speed across the manufacturing and merchandising, as well as inventory management, and also in-stock levels. So there's a lot of work to do. They're going to be spending more on CapEx next year, and they're also going to continue to perfect improving their in-stock levels and really interjecting that with great merchandising. On the other hand, Walmart is seeing growth in their apparel, and they're doing a nice job with adding luxury brands such as Hermes and others on the marketplace.

14:49You can get those as well as offering like a core great grocery product, too. So it's a tale of two different strategies. Tech and AI is playing a bigger role in Walmart, in part because they started this journey five to ten years ago with Doug McMillan. Oliver, Mel had another question for you, but she was sort of shy to ask. Where did you do your undergraduate work? Georgetown, Hoya Saxa. My man. Can I tell you something? That's beautiful. That's what you wanted to ask him? I didn't ask him. I had a question for all of them. I didn't know. Oliver, it's always great to see you. Thank you. Go Hoya Saxa.

15:26Have a great Thanksgiving. Have a great Black Friday. Oliver Chen. That's what you wanted to ask? Well, no, we asked him my other questions about Costco and things. I thought it was a great question. And I'm sure there's some consumer context in that. Is there is that the solution in your view for a target to improve the stuff, make sure the stuff that they sell is in stock, make sure the stuff is a little bit hipper? Or do they need to do, as Jerry Storch said, have better groceries? Yes, they need to get they need to get people into the stores. There needs to be some perception of value there.

16:00And that's what's working for Walmart. I don't that Tarjay thing. It was a nice gimmick. But ultimately, I think the the merchandise mix still needs to favor groceries, even though the higher margin stuff is where they used to be. I mean, I look I mean, here's the thing. Think that everything that's known and knowable from the wonderful analyst that was on to all this and all of us is out there in the marketplace. People aren't buying it. The only way a stock starts to stop going down is someone with big money starts to buy it. And it bases and bottoms and takes a lot of, and it cures and heals and then turns up.

16:34It's just not the case. It's just there's no premise or thesis to say today's the day. I buy it because it's cheap. And the game of Walmart versus Target, it's still Walmart. I get it. Target can bounce. It bounced today. But I think Walmart's setting for another leg higher. Regardless of valuation, it's Walmart to me, Melbs. All right. Let's get to Dell here. Higher in the after-hours session by about 2%, despite missing top-line estimates. The company forecasting AI sales will drive a strong Q4. The conference call kicking off in the last hour. Our Christina Parks and Nevelis has got the numbers.

17:04Christina. It's a perfect segue because AI was the big focus, and especially when Dell raised its AI guidance. The CFO is saying on the call they're now targeting roughly$25 billion in AI shipments, up from$20 billion. He said their customer base continues to broaden with expansion across new neoclouds, tier two service providers, and sovereigns. As well, their five-year quarter pipeline continues to grow sequentially. He said that a few times, five quarters. Dell also plans to ship nearly as much in Q4 as they did all of last year, so it really speaks to that AI demand. Now on those memory cost concerns we've been tracking, management did address this head-on.

17:40The CFO said, quote, we're in a very unique time. It's unprecedented. We have not seen costs move at this rate at the rate that we've seen. He also noted it's not just DRAM, which is dynamic memory. It's NAND, hard drives, leading-edge nodes across the semiconductor network. His take, though, demand is still way ahead of supply, so of course that is going to hurt some margins. On the PC side, he said they still haven't completed the Windows 11 refresh cycle, so there's still, quote, runway for conversions ahead. Unfortunately, I did not go to Georgetown. Melissa? We still love you. Me neither, Christina.

18:15Thank you. Thanks. Christina Parts Nevelis. It was hard getting in when you applied, Mel. I'm sorry. Are you still bitter about that? I didn't apply. Anyway, this is great news for the AI trade, right, Dan? I don't know. I mean, like, you know, the guidance was fine. And when you think about the margin pressure they're going to have, and you also think about, you know, Kay Parks just mentioned the neoclouds. Okay, so CoreWeave is a big customer of theirs. Like, you know, if there is something lurking out there, whether it's Oracle, who's probably a big buyer of Dell, you know, these debt laden companies who can only expand right by raising more debt and giving orders to companies like Dell.

18:55I mean, at some point, these orders are going to probably have to slow down a bit because there's only going to be so much ability for these sorts of companies to continue to spend this way. So, you know, Dell is low on the pecking order, if you think about it, from an ability to kind of monetize this. They have 20 percent gross margins or something, and they're banging up against a super micro that has half of that. So, again, the stock broke out a couple months ago. It gave it all back. It was down 30 percent from those highs. It can't even get going on this guidance. I know it's just in the aftermarket here.

19:24Let's just see, though, what investors think tomorrow, especially if Oracle can't get out of its way, CoreWeave can't get out of its own way. So that's a big question. Are these orders, you know, the pipeline, is that real, given, you know, the debt that has to be issued in order to purchase these servers? We're going to find out. But if you believe their fourth quarter guide, their full year guide, effectively, this was the third quarter, that revenue guide is pretty good. And it's on valuation. It is inexpensive. And it has sold off considerably since that little bit of a double top. So Dan's right.

19:56It should be higher. But I actually think it can go higher off this quarter. So you covered all of it, the double top. the lackluster performance, it's what a pair of twos is, right? Meaning it's not a big bet long. It's not a big bet short. Sometimes you just leave them alone. And that's what I would say Dell is here. Yeah. Would you do that, Tim? Leave it alone. I'm not dying to run in and get it. I do think that some of these memory costs are overblown. And I do think that the valuation makes it attractive enough. And I'm the five cent technical guy next to the hero. But it has held this 200 day.

20:29A lot of stocks are bouncing off of that. And at least for a trade, there's something there. Coming up, binging on some technicals with the Chartmaster Season Store for Netflix. And where the streaming giant heads from here, plus Zoom and higher, the strong sales and demand for AI tools lifting shares of Zoom. How the latest trends in hybrid work are impacting that name. Do not go anywhere. Fast Money is back in two.

20:52This is Fast Money with Melissa Lee right here on CNBC.

21:03Welcome back to Fast Money. Netflix has slipped nearly 9 % in just the last week and is now down north of 13 % over the last two months. But the chart master says the streamer could soon be seeing some gains. So what do you see in the charts, Carter? Well, let's get right to it. So we have three charts. And the question is there's two types of weakness. Weakness to take advantage of and weakness to stay away from. That would be target. But in this case, here's the first of three charts. No drawings, no lines, no annotations. Let's put some on. Second iteration. that this is a very well-defined trend line.

21:32And as one can see, it has come down to this trend line repeatedly and bounced to the penny. Final chart, that's a judgment. That's an up arrow. Others would say, nope, you got that exactly wrong. It's about to break that trend. But down here, some 23 percent versus the market, I think it's weakness to take advantage of. I mean, I guess a key factor in this on the fundamental side is what it does for Warner Brothers' discovery. The bidding process opened last week. Netflix has strong interest, according to David Faber. but we don't know anything about a bid. No, and we thought that was probably not going to be good for the stock, and it's proven to be correct.

22:05By the way, Tom Rogers, I think back in June two quarters ago, was for the first time in years concerned about the price action and where the stock was. Good for him. Carter put the trend line. This level is also the prior all-time high that we made back in February. So this is a logical level for it to stop and bounce. So I'm more inclined to say buy it off this trend line than sell it. Yeah, and it's not just Netflix. It's Spotify, which is down 25 % from its recent all-time highs. And I look around and I look at some of these names, internet names, right? I see DoorDash, and I see Instacart, and I see Uber, and I see a bunch of other.