Fast Money 9/16/25

0:00Hi, it's Melissa. Before we jump into today's show, I've got something exciting to share. On December 11th, we are hosting a special edition of Fast Money Live. trading the holidays right here at the Nasdaq Market Site. You get to watch a live taping of Fast Money, meet and interact with the traders, and of course, celebrate the holiday season with us. It's stocks and cheers in the heart of the city, Times Square in December. You will not want to miss this. Tickets are available now at CNBCevents.com slash Fast Money.

0:27Live from the Nasdaq Market Site in the heart of New York City's Times Square, this is Fast Money. Here's what's on tap tonight. Some big action and a couple of key asset classes ahead of the Fed decision. We break down what the moves in the dollar, gold, and regional banks say about the markets and how they're set up for tomorrow's news. And healthy gains, weight loss drug makers jumping in today's session on new trial data and helps for FDA approvals. The details on the moves and how to play the names right now. Plus, retail on sale. China stock rally rolls on. And Warner Brothers' recent run comes to a halt as investors wait for a paramount deal.

1:00I'm Melissa Lee. Coming to you live from Studio B at the NASDAQ. On the desk tonight, Karen Feinerman, Courtney Garcia, Guy Adami. and Dan Nathan. We'll get to the Fed meeting in just a moment, but we start off with a developing story on the big players involved in the U.S. TikTok framework deal. CNBC's Eamon Jabbers has got the latest from D.C. Eamon. Yeah, Melissa, that's right. We've got some new reporting from CNBC and also from The Wall Street Journal listing all the folks who are involved and take a look in this new TikTok deal. We've got Andreessen Horowitz in the deal, as well as Oracle and Silver Lake in the deal.

1:32It's an 80 % stake for the U.S. side, about 20 % or just under that for the Chinese side. It's going to be an American-dominated board of directors. And interestingly, according to the Wall Street Journal's reporting this afternoon, one of the board members will be appointed by the U.S. government. So that makes the new TikTok entity sort of a hybrid of control of these American entities plus the U.S. government, plus in a much smaller percentage, the Chinese entity, which will still retain a share. In terms of the algorithm, Wall Street Journal is reporting that TikTok U.S. employees are going to have to re-engineer the algorithm that underlies TikTok.

2:12That's the recommendation engine, which has proven to be so powerful in the marketplace that's driving what millions of Americans see. And that was the national security issue here, is who gets to control that. It looks like that's going to land on the U.S. side of the fence, according to the details that we're getting now. And bear in mind, the president did sign an executive order earlier today extending the deadline for non-enforcement of the new TikTok law until December 16th. So that clears the decks for some period of time to actually implement this deal. We're expecting President Trump and Xi Jinping to speak by telephone on Friday.

2:48And after that, we're told we may get finalized deal information. But that's that's what we know so far. And this is the fourth time, I think, Eamon, that this deadline has, in fact, been extended. I mean, despite the national security concerns that surrounded TikTok existing in the United States. Yeah, I mean, Congress passed a law saying that this had to happen. And then the president simply decided to not enforce that law. And no one sued him to enforce the congressional law. So ultimately, we're just kind of in a holding pattern, which is sort of legally weird and in a bit of a gray area. The president just issued these executive orders, extending it and extending it.

3:30And now seems to have come up with a political deal to solve the question of how to keep TikTok alive in the United States. Interestingly, people are going to look at the makeup of this new board and see what percentage of the board members are sort of known and highly visible Trump supporters. Right. TikTok is one of the most powerful media organizations in the country and controls what a lot of Americans see on a daily or hourly or minute by minute basis on their phones. I think there's going to be some political scrutiny of exactly who goes on this board and what their political affiliation is and how close to Trump they are.

4:09Yeah, it's interesting because it was always, you know, wondered what the algorithm controlled in terms of what the Chinese government would want the U.S. population to see. And I think the question still remain. It's just another party potentially in the driver's seat here. Eamon, thank you. You bet. Eamon Javers. So I would presume this is a good sign in terms of U.S.-China trade talks, at least. We've cleared this hurdle, which had been a hurdle for further talks. I agree with that. That's a conversation we started the show with last night. And I agree that this does nothing to sort of take it off the rails at all.

4:42I think it helps. And I do think it's more positive for the Chinese market than the U.S. market, in my opinion. The Oracle take real quick to the extent that it even matters. You know, that stock went up 30 % over after earnings last week. You guys, I know, talked about it. I mean, that's not a natural thing, but we've seen similar. We saw Broadcom in December of last year with a similar move. These are not small companies. Question is, does this move the needle? Probably. But at 38 times now, next year's number, are you willing to pay up that much for Oracle? And that's a question you have to ask, because that OpenAI deal,$300 billion over five years, that's great.

5:18You know, what's the earnings on that? That's still yet to be determined. So you're deep into the pool here, I think, in Oracle. So it's interesting to me that the government chose not to take a stake, it seems, or get a stake for free. I'm not really sure. I think, you know, we saw a couple of weeks ago the 15 percent to the U.S. government for NVIDIA, which I think that is no longer the case. I mean, I'm not quite sure, actually, but the Intel thing where the government was putting in money. So that made that fairly straightforward. Then you have the the U.S. steel deal where the government has, I guess, a board position.

5:56I think it would be dangerous. You'd be on dangerous ground for the government to take a stake in a social media company that has the power to influence, I think. As opposed to the president owns a social media company. Yes. That is clearly disclosed as opposed to creating rules in which the government can actually own a stake. Because that's basically what he created the situation for him to just take a stake. Not him. The government. The government. Yes. I don't know. Actually, that doesn't seem wildly different to me. But I don't know. It is interesting and somewhat perplexing. But OK. I mean, he's telegraphed for a long time.

6:36This is what was going to happen. But I do think, to your original point, is it good for, it is certainly a positive sign for U.S.-China relations that there will be something to discuss. Yeah. Yeah, and I think one of my big takeaways from this is the fact that they're re-engineering the algorithm. Like, that really is the goldmine of TikTok, is their algorithm seems to be much better than what you're getting on Meta or some of their competitors. So I think the question is, is re-engineering going to make it as effective as it is right now? And so is TikTok going to be as valuable as people think it is right now?

7:10And that I don't think we have the answer on, but I think that's something that we have to see. So I think there is a lot of excitement over things like Oracle and these other companies that are going to be taking a stake in it. But you have to see how it changes because social media can change on a dime. If it is not as good as people expect, they're going to go on to the next platform. So I think seeing how that algorithm changes is going to be a key in how you want to value this. I mean, that's what we were saying, Dan, a long time ago when this first surfaced that, you know, the ownership of TikTok would in fact be challenged.

7:37What is TikTok if it were not for the algorithm? And the assumption that a U.S. team can re-engineer, if it were that easy to do, lots of other people would do it, too, unless they've got some sort of inside track, which presumably U.S. employees of TikTok might have. Yeah, well, I mean, listen, there's a huge race for talent right now. We just saw what Meta was just doing. They're paying hundreds of millions of dollars for AI talent. They're getting it from Apple. They're getting it from OpenEye. They're getting it from Google. I'm not sure there's enough to go around right here. Court's, you know, her view is the right one here.

8:09If they kind of mess with this algo and it's not the same product, then you have a degraded sort of entity. The other thing I just say is that, listen, if this is about user data, if this is about national security, if this is about oversight of the algorithm and corporate governance, that's fine, okay? We get it. This is something that the Trump administration the first time around was really behind. So the fact now that they're giving this sweetheart deal to a private equity company, a VC company that lined up behind the president, Oracle, which obviously the chairman of that company is very close to the administration.

8:41This seems a bit cozy when I think about Oracle. Also, they have had this cloud business. They have had TikTok's business for the last three years. Right. If you go back and look at 2022, you know, Oracle couldn't get out of its own way. Even since then, they have low single digits market share of the cloud business. The fact that the stock opened up today the way it did and kind of came off, I think it's investors saying to themselves, there's no clarity about what this kind of means, what the ownership structure means. There's no clarity about how what they would have to build in addition to what they've already done.

9:16Basically, it's at odds with what they're building out for Stargate, OpenAI and the like. So I think there's more questions than answers right now. And I think that's one of the reasons why Oracle is probably not in that much better a position than it was, let's say, three trading days ago. And once upon a time, we were talking about the potential closure of TikTok. We were saying and people thought that this would be a good thing. That would be a good thing for the likes of a meta. And that sort of hasn't entered the conversation. I mean, that's not part of this conversation anymore. Amazingly.

9:44Right. No, it isn't. I mean, I think that those hopes faded a while ago. Trump's been on this for a while. So they would have been the beneficiary, but they still seem to be doing OK on their own in the current environment. Let's get back to the big market moves ahead of one of the most highly scrutinized Fed meetings of the year. The central bank widely expected to cut rates by 25 basis points tomorrow, its first cut since December amid continued pressure from President Trump. While major averages were a little changed today, gold settled at its 35th record of the year. The dollar traded near more than three-year lows, and rate-sensitive regional banks got hit hard.

10:21Bank First, Synchrony Financial, Huntington Bank Shares, Key Corp, among the worst performers in the group, but with broader markets near all-time highs. What do these moves tell us? What do you think is telegraphing? Well, the gold market's telling something, I believe. I said that for a while. Now, that's been wrong to say that for a while because the equity market, the S &P, made a new all-time high today. So clearly there's some disconnect. But the fact that gold goes up seemingly in every environment we can think of is somewhat problematic, I think, if you look at it long term. It's trying to tell a story.

10:51And the fact that the dollar has had no bounce whatsoever outside of maybe a three or four day period a couple weeks ago should also be concerning. Now, people will say a weaker dollar supportive of equities. I agree with that to a point. You hit that diminishing marginal returns, and I think we're pretty close. The pound feels like it's going to 125. Dollar yen feels like it's going to breach 140. And I think the equity market will wake up and say, you know what, maybe it's not such a good thing. Yeah, there are big moves in the regional banks. And you think that they'd be a beneficiary of a better economic environment.

11:23Yes. Although I guess, I mean, if you look at how far they've run since, you know, liberation day, they're up maybe 40 percent, which is huge. So I don't know if some of it is maybe just giving that back. But I was surprised how hard they got hit today. Yeah. And I think one of the questions, too, is what's going to happen with the longer term side of the curve, because realistically, the Fed is cutting into a really strong economy. And what that can do is spur a lot of increased activity in the markets, increased activity in the economy, and increase longer term inflation. Like you can get this melt up.

11:54And historically speaking, when the Fed cuts in a strengthening economy, the markets are higher 12 months later. But so might be the longer end of the curve, which also can affect like mortgage rates. So you actually might see less mortgage demand. Those rates go higher. And that actually could be part of the story. Yeah, that was one of the points Julian Emanuel made today on the exchange. Twelve months out. Twelve months out, markets are higher. Were you hosting that show? I was. With Mrs. Santoli. Yeah, that's great. I was watching Squawk Box this morning. Treasury Secretary Besant was asked that question by Becky Quick about it was September of last year.

12:29The Fed cut rates, the 10-year yield went higher. What are your thoughts? He said it was different this last year. We're in a much different environment. We will see. But I share the same concerns that, you know, people get ahead of themselves in terms of rates continuing to go down. I think I still am one of the few people who think tenure yields are going higher from here. Yeah. What do you think, Dan? Yeah, we haven't even mentioned the Lisa Cook situation. We haven't mentioned that this is literally a case that is going in front of the Supreme Court that might actually change the course of the makeup of the governors tomorrow at the meeting.

13:02I mean, that's just insane to think about. And so, you know, listen, we got this 4 % in the 10-year. We've seen yields kind of run ahead a little bit of a very telegraphed 25 basis point cut here. I'm kind of in guys camp here. I mean, like, and I'm not sure I agree with Courtney that the Fed is cutting into a strong economy. It would just kind of be at odds with what we've just seen in the labor market over the last couple months and the revisions back to June. You know, you tell me there's strong retail sales back to school, this and that, whatever. I'm like, well, that's what Americans do. We buy crap.

13:33And so at the end of the day, if the labor market is weakening, you're going to see other parts of the economy weakening. And then it comes back to why the Fed is cutting right now. And if they cut, do we see inflation pick back up? So at the end of the day, I think it's about as clear as mud. I think that we were going to be talking about this Lisa Cook and Moran situation tomorrow, especially if you have a Supreme Court rule that this person, this governor, cannot vote at this meeting tomorrow? I mean, it's just insane. We're within 24 hours. I saw the bug up there. They're 20 hours and counting down.

14:07Our next guest warns the Fed may disappoint Wall Street when that meeting happens in about 20 hours or so. Subhadra Rajapa is ahead of U.S. rates for Societe Generale. Subhadra, great to have you with us. There does seem to be a lot of expectation built into at least 75 basis points through the end of the year. So is that where the disappointment may lie? Yeah, it's not just the 75 basis points. up to the end of the year, you're also looking at a total of six cuts by the end of next year. And the terminal Fed funds rate is actually lower. The market's pressing a lower rate than what the Fed has for its terminal Fed funds rate.

14:41So it's a pretty dramatic pace of cuts between now and the end of next year. So what do you think we'll hear from Powell? He was surprisingly dovish the last time we heard from him. What do you expect tomorrow? He did surprise me at the Jackson Hole meeting because he's been kind of leaning towards no cuts. And then he kind of pivoted very quickly to cutting at the September meeting. I think that he might sound a bit dovish, but I don't think he's going to commit to an October rate cut. To me, it feels like it's still going to be meeting by meeting. I think you guys made some very, very interesting points.

15:11My concern is that if the Fed cuts rates aggressively, that you might actually see the long end yields rise. You know, inflation expectations start to rise. That's not a good thing. So I think that they're still going to be very measured, take it meeting by meeting. What is your sense about it? It feels to me, and maybe I'm looking at it differently, there's been this reacceleration of some of the inflation metrics that we look at. They're not trending in the right direction, let's put it that way. But the Fed made it clear that it's the employment picture they're focused on. I mean, if this inflation continues to sort of reaccelerate, it's a bit of a problem here.

15:43And I think that's, again, one of the reasons rates go higher from here. Yeah, I mean, because if you look at the last couple of CPI prints, the gains have been kind of broad based. It's not one category or the other. We thought that it's going to be mostly goods inflation. It's not. It's a lot of other categories that are not necessarily directly linked to tariffs. Yes, the feed through from tariffs has been somewhat muted. But it's very possible that you see that starting to come down the pike in the numbers that are to come for the remainder of the year. So it's tough. I think that the Fed is going to be very, very measured, given the fact that they just don't know how inflation is going to pan out.

16:18So in terms of your outlook for rates, where do they stand right now? And do you think that they could swing dramatically based on tomorrow's meeting? I'm just wondering how critical tomorrow you think is, given the setup going in. So it's interesting that you'd ask that question. And we looked at what happened to 10-year yields on Fed meeting dates for the last several meetings. And what you notice is that 10-8 yields tend to rally. But in July, you saw the opposite. You actually saw 10-8 yields rise. So it's very possible that if we, given the fact that 10-8 yields are close to 4%, which is the lower end of the recent range, the front end, the two-year, is very effectively priced in for an aggressive policy path.

16:59If the Fed disappoints, if they don't sound as dovish as what the market expects, there's a chance that you could see yields rise. Now, how do we view this from the stock market side, right? I think they are optimistic that we're going to see these rate cuts coming down. I mean, most definitively this week, but probably a couple more this year. But coming into this year, they were expecting, what, like six cuts that didn't happen. The markets have done really well. So the question is, let's say they aren't as they don't cut as much as we're expecting. Is that going to be a bad thing for the markets or are they set up well regardless?

17:29So that's a tough one, because if you look at financial conditions, broadly speaking, not just equities. But if you look at the weakness of the dollar and credit spreads, the market's looking at very, very easy financial conditions. So part of that easing of financial conditions is because the market is accounting for a very, very easy policy path. There's also the calculus on what's going to happen next year with the composition of the committee. Is the committee going to be much more dovish? All of that kind of factors into risky assets in general. So you could see an unwind of that if there's a sense that the Fed is not willing to act as aggressively as the market is pricing it.

18:09And I know you're squarely focused on rates, but still, what does the move in the dollar, the move in gold, how does that educate your view on rates? You know, the dichotomy that you pointed out, Guy, about the strengthening of the rise in gold versus the dollar not doing as much is telling. So your flight to safety asset is now gold. It's not the dollar. It's not really any other asset in the U.S. Yes, you're seeing a run-up in equities. A lot of that has to do with the dollar weakening. The question becomes what happens from here on, and gold seems to be that safe-haven asset. Subhadra, great to talk to you.

18:48Thank you so much, Subhadra Rajapa. It was interesting because Invesco actually advised clients to go maximum short the dollar, so they're anticipating even more dollar weakness from here. This was just this week. Which is, you know, that's a telling sign. I mean, given the weakness and given, again, outside of a couple days, there's been no meaningful bounce in the dollar. I happen to agree with them. But again, I don't know. I think that's the right trade in terms of currencies. I think staying along gold is the right trade. But what is that really telling you in terms of the risk appetite out there?

19:17And what does it mean for the equity market? And I don't think it's painting as rosy a picture as an all-time high in the S &P seems to think it is. Yeah. What do you think, Court? Yeah, and I think if the dollar weakens, one thing that's been performing really well this year is international, right? When you're looking at developed markets or emerging markets, they're both up over 20 % this year, and the dollar weakening is a big part of that. And actually, I think that story still has room to run. So if the dollar does continue to weaken, I actually think that's a good way to look at it and play it.

19:43I think it's a little more gasoline, right? Yeah. Which ultimately seems problematic, but I don't know what happens between here and there. I don't think this is the point where it gets so problematic yet. Yeah. Dan? Yeah, I just think that we're in a situation here where there's a big disconnect, or at least apparently a disconnect between what's going on in the economy, or at least the uncertainty with the economy and the certainty that exists in the equity market. And that spread is not a great place to be. And I just heard, I can't remember, maybe Guy said that that weak dollar and yields coming down, I mean, that is supportive for equity valuations and it could be a tailwind for earnings growth and the like.

20:22But again, that labor market is not going to turn on a dime. And it just seems like it's really been weakening over the course of the last year. And I don't think all this investment, all this CapEx and AI is going to do a whole heck of a lot of positive things for that labor market. So again, I think that the Fed tomorrow, interest rate cuts, who knows what the pace is going to be. It could be a sell the news in equity markets. Coming up, new data helping Novo Nordisk to a second day of gains today. what we know about its new weight loss drug option and how it could boost the stock. That's next.

20:52Plus, a retail route. Many names in the group in the red despite strong sales data. The names leading to losses and the read they give on the consumer. Don't go anywhere. Fast Money is back in two.

21:06This is Fast Money with Melissa Lee right here on CNBC.

21:19Welcome back to Fast Money. Novo Nordisk jumping almost 3 % after presenting positive data on its amylin obesity drug, potentially setting up the next-gen shot as an alternative for patients who struggle to tolerate existing GLP-1 treatments. For more on this, let's get to Angelica Peebles. Angelica. Hey, Melissa. Well, Novo Nordisk saying that its amylin-targeting shot, Cagri Lintide, helped people lose about 12 % of their body weight, and that's not the most impressive weight loss we've ever seen, but the main attraction for amylin drugs is that they might come with fewer side effects than GLP-1.