Fast Money 9/19/25

0:02Live from the Nasdaq market site in the heart of New York City's Times Square, this is Fast Money. Here's what's on tap tonight. Apple picking shares of the tech giant hearing seven month highs as its latest iPhone goes on sale. How early demand is shaping up what it means for the state of big tech and mining for gains from gold to uranium. The metals and the stocks tied to them are surging. What's behind the moves and how much higher can they go? Plus, the stocks and sectors that benefit from the global bond sell off, a big week of data in the weight loss drug space. Who came out on top? And the short thesis for EVs, why one market watcher does not see a strong bull case for the group.

0:37I'm Melissa Lee. Come to you live from the studio, be it the Nasdaq. On the desk tonight, Tim Seymour, Guy Dami, and Mike Coe. We start off with a monster move in Apple as the company's latest iPhones go on sale. Shares rising more than 3 % today, hitting their highest level since late February. The stock also getting a boost from JP Morgan, which raised its price target by almost 10%. Analysts citing strong demand for the new devices in a robust multi-year growth model. CNBC's Steve Kovac is at the flagship Apple store in Manhattan with more on the launch. And we were remarking about this earlier, Steve, that the lines are actually, there are people lining up for this thing.

1:11Yeah, they're still going, Mel. And I spent 12 hours in front of this Apple store here today, so you would know what's going on. And here's what I learned here, Mel. Basically, the demand is extremely high right now for these new devices. We've seen that in the pre-order data, and we're seeing it here today with these enormous lines. When I was here a year ago for the iPhone 16, remember, that was the one everyone is excited about, that AI was going to drive this big super cycle. That never materialized. The opposite is happening this year. The lines are sustaining and growing throughout the day, showing really strong demand for these new designs of the phones.

1:48There's the iPhone Air, the new design on the iPhone Pro. And in fact, most of the people I talk to in line, Mel, they're going for that more expensive iPhone Pro, even with the price increase as well. So it's extremely interesting to see the dynamics here. And Apple really getting back to basics and making cool hardware changes that get people excited. And by the way, this may only be the beginning because next year there's a foldable phone expected on the way. And the year after that, a brand new idea of what the iPhone could look like with the 20th anniversary iPhone. So this could be the start of a big iPhone growth spurt, Mel.

2:25All right, Steve. Thanks. Steve Kovac. I want to buy it. I'm telling you. Can I get on that line for Apple? There's quite a line out there. That's all I'll say. A lot of excitement. Not rated G, that shot behind Steve. Anyway. Steve kept it together. Totally. As a pro. If you saw what was happening, you would not believe it. Did everybody see what happened there? I hope so. No, no, no. We were showing graphics, a video of Tim Cook, and all sorts of, you know, it's a family show. It's a family show. Anyway, let's get back on the trade here because it has been a remarkable run here on what had been considered sort of an evolutionary, I mean, I don't know what you thought of the iPhone Air in terms of spurring this sort of response.

3:07Well, if you believe that Apple hasn't innovated in a long time, and if you believe Apple's all about design and all about a product and all about an event, But when I parked my city bike, by the way, I'm Long City. It was a city bike I parked this morning. I saw it by the Apple store, and I saw a huge line. I haven't seen this in forever. And I was like, are they really here for the new iPhone? And, in fact, they are. And it's just amazing to me that the analyst community who follows this stuff, and we get a lot of different channel checks to determine we look at component parts, we look at different pieces of the shipment chain, and to be surprised and to have to upgrade today.

3:43But, you know, my thesis on Apple is not that I'm expecting runaway growth, but I think that we priced in zero in terms of a refresh cycle about this phone. So, yes, a better battery. Yes, a better camera. Yes, a sleeker, you know, body, chassis, whatever we're calling this. By the way, yeah, speaking of the segment we just had. So I think that this follow through and Apple continues to be very bullish, especially in a backdrop where people are necessarily have not priced a lot. Right. I mean, to JP Morgan's point, is this enough to get us to the next real innovation, which would be the foldable phone and to get us to the first meaningful offering in terms of A.I.?

4:25And so if this can be enough of a bridge, then can you chart that? OK, so that's innovation. I agree with all that stuff. I'll also say this. There was three times normal volume today. Some options expiry that I'm sure sort of spurred volume and had that late ramp in this stock and a bunch of other stocks. So there's that out there. I think 260 was the prior high back in December. There's obviously a bullseye on that. But now you can talk about innovation, which I get. It's a company that's trading close to 31 times next year's numbers that has maybe 10 % earnings growth, with maybe 6 %-ish revenue growth, with margins that have been flatlining, maybe starting to move up a modest amount.

5:05So it's an expensive stock. Now, you could say they deserve to be expensive, and that's historically been true. But you have to understand you're absolutely paying up for Apple here. What did you see, Mike, on the options front? Perfect night for you to be here. And do you think it's worth paying up for Apple? Well, first of all, we saw more than three times the average daily options volume in Apple today. It traded more than 2 million calls alone, actually. So it was the second busiest stock, actually, in the options market. I'm kind of with Guy here, though. If you think about it this way, so 31 times forward versus 25-ish, maybe a little bit more for the S &P.

5:45And the thing is that the S &P's compound annual growth rate on the revenue side is actually higher than Apple's is. It's just hard to see why you would pay such a premium. It's a great company, generates massive amounts of free cash flow. That's great. The buyback story can't be quite as compelling just simply because of the size of the company now. And I'm obviously looking forward to better product on the AI side, as we are from not just Apple, but from Alphabet and others. But you need to see actually a reason to reach out and buy this one instead of the market broadly. And I don't see that.

6:25I mean, the point is, is that we're anticipating, right? And so we're anticipating what, Tim? What is in the stock now and what is still not yet in the stock? Well, because markets are all-time highs at an all-time forward multiple for the S &P and for the Nasdaq, effectively. I mean, you can go back to Pets.com days. But, I mean, really, we're talking about a market that's expensive. Apple's now, if you want to say it's expensive, that's fine. I get it for the kind of growth you're getting. But then it's been expensive for five years. Why, when it was expensive six months ago, wasn't it sold off?

6:56Why wasn't it destroyed during April, during Liberation Day? So you can't tell me that the stock is too expensive because the market's put a multiple on it for a long time that's north of 30. This is a company with$2.3 billion or more in terms of an installed base that's going to refresh. They're going to refresh at some point. They're not going to switch away from an iPhone. So if you're serving up AI and you're serving up services that have to grow with AI, And part of the I think the underlying story is that the developers and the opening up the Apple developers to the Apple ecosystem around AI is something we still haven't seen.

7:28That's my argument also around services. But I'll just get back to where we're not an Apple. We're not in an AI evaluation here. We're not in a company that's gotten anything out of AI. They've had headwinds. They've had headwinds from China. So I'm not going to tell you 20 percent growth is what we have here, but it would be crazy to be selling Apple here, especially as we are unlocking a refresh cycle that looks to be better than expected. Yeah. I mean, in terms of the AI offering, I mean, that Google antitrust case really unlocked a possibility for Apple in terms of an AI offering. And you saw the way it traded on the back of it.

8:00And Tim is right. I mean, it's been Apple's been expensive now for probably the better part of four or five years. what's fascinating to me, you know, it was a growth stock. It was trading at a 13 multiple. It was trading at a value stock valuation. Now that it's become a value stock, it's trading at a growth stock valuation. Maybe that makes sense. And maybe you should pay up for a name like Apple. And maybe because it's in, you know, 400-something ETFs and the passive world works for Apple. All those things are definitely tailwinds. But we have seen downdrafts before in the name. So it's not impervious to market sell-offs.

8:31With that said, I mean, given where we're trading, given where the market is right now, that level that we saw in December is probably in the crosshairs. And I think we have seen rotation within the biggest companies in the world. And we've seen a resurgent Apple be part of a rotation. I mean, do we think the fundamentals in Tesla are so extraordinary here? Do we think that some of the moves in even Oracle today, you have another essentially big computing deal for them that probably won't be profitable, and yet we're rewarding this stock in an enormous way. So there's a ton of liquidity out there.

9:01It's one of the top three or four biggest companies in the world with the most confidence, especially around capital markets, and not making bad moves. You know, as an investor, sometimes you don't want to make a bad move just like a company doesn't. And I think that's part of where people have a lot more confidence in terms of making a dollar allocation to Apple here and feeling that they're not going to be destroyed in that move. Yeah. I think it's an interesting point in terms of Oracle, rewarding companies for things that may not be, in fact, profitable. We don't know what the quality of those revenues are.

9:29And it's up 4 % here, Mike. So what have you seen when it comes to action regarding Oracle's huge climb? And would you rather allocate a dollar to Oracle or to Apple here? Nice would you rather. Check that out. That's an interesting one. I mean, you know, I have to say that from an operating perspective, Apple has outperformed Oracle. If we just take a look at, if we ignored the valuation for a second and focused only on revenue and earnings growth, then you actually have to hand that off to Apple. I'm not sure that that's the choice that investors have to make, though, right? So for me, when I'm looking at individual single stock opportunities, I look at them relative to the S &P.

10:13I look at them relative to the Russell, if they're going to be a mega cap stock, as both of these are. And that's where it has to become compelling. Sorry, Mike. I was just going to say you snuck that in on Mike Coe. Would you rather? There's no sneaking. There just is. It was. I didn't sneak. I said it loud and clear. Yeah. Yeah, I think she did. And I think Mike was ready for it, Guy. Well, no, you know what? He wasn't, but then he quickly got himself ready. Because you never know what's going to come out of our mouths at any given moment. So what's going to come out of your mouth when it comes to the same questions?

10:42In that same game, now I'm going to sort of contradict myself. In that same game, I've got to take Apple. I mean, I think given the run at Oracle's two weeks ago, it might be a different answer. But in the here and now, given the run Oracle's had and given the lack of run until recently, it's got to be Apple. Can I extend this? I mean, can you add another name? No, that's how you want to play Change the Rule. OK, go ahead. So, well, I think you have to do this against NVIDIA. I mean, I think you have to do this against the growth company that's actually stagnated here. And you can make an argument is really underperformed a handful of stocks here.

11:12But is the growth stock of the bunch? So it's now up to you, Melissa, who you want to ask that question to. NVIDIA or Apple? Apple. That one's to me, I assume, since nobody else is answering. I'm pointing at you. I'm looking at you. I really wanted one of these guys to answer it. It's NVIDIA. In the short term, it's Apple. In the longer term, it's NVIDIA. I think NVIDIA, I'm comfortable on in this valuation. But again, I'm long Apple here. Meantime, stocks continuing to climb after the Fed's rate cut on Wednesday. The Nasdaq, S &P, and Dow all closing at record highs again today. But global bonds are selling off.

11:45U.S., UK, Germany, Japanese rates all ticking higher over the past week. Rising yields likely to have the biggest impact, of course, on rate-sensitive sectors like banks and homebuilders. You saw the moose today. Tim, in terms of the banks, this is a sector that you have liked. This theoretically is beneficial. Yeah, I think steeper yield curve. I think this was a week where, by the way, a couple of high-flying IPOs haven't done so well. In fact, a handful of IPOs even in the last few weeks haven't done so well. But we have an IPO cycle. We have an M &A cycle. We see clearly with the posture in Washington, deals are getting done.

12:18We see a steeper yield curve. We see banks beginning to be able to give back even more capital. Then they're just the slightly bigger, slightly more qualitative dynamics around the regulatory environment. So I added the Citibank this week. I added the money center banks. And one of the points I've made on this show a lot, which is that I think European banks, money center banks, are more interesting than U.S. And I was just checking, you know, the EUFN, which is the ETF that tracks the largest money center banks across Europe, is up 46 percent year to date against 12 percent for the XLF. Both those trades have worked.

12:51The European trade is better. And I still think the backdrop we the market did this week after the Fed has said if we're in one of those periods, one of those few periods where the Fed is cutting in a non-recessionary environment, this is a time to grab risk. In that barbell, you're buying the relatively cheap banks as well. Who's that cat that said history doesn't repeat it? Like Twain? Mark Twain. Yeah, he's a cat. He was a cat. He was a cool cat. He was a cool cat. Yeah. And history doesn't rarely repeats, but it certainly rhymes. And we talked about this all week long. In September of last year, Fed cuts rates.

13:25Ten-year yields go from 3.6 % to 4.5%. Fed cuts rates this week. We saw that initial move lower in yields. Now they're starting to move. And it's not just the U.S. Yes, Japanese 10-year yields are at a 14 - or 15-year high, and they continue to sell. The bond market continues to sell off. So it's not just a U.S. thing. It's a global bond move right now that I think, listen, the equity markets aren't paying attention to, but I think at some point they better start. But, I mean, at 4.133 percent, you can't say you can't be panicked about it. I'm not panicking here. We're so well within the range that we have been in.

13:57No, but the call that, at least at different times, we've said, look at yields in Japan. And you had a BOJ meeting where you had two dissenting voices, and that was actually, that's a big deal in Japan. You also had the government selling off almost half a trillion dollars of equity ETFs or beginning that process. There's a lot of foot in Japan. I don't think it's great for Japanese equities, by the way. But there's no question we have to be watching the Japanese bond market. And in terms of what JGB yields in the past and bond yields have done is they have pulled up the long end of the U.S. Treasury curve.

14:32Yeah, what we have seen also is a tick higher in mortgage rates, Mike, on the heels of the Fed decision, which is interesting. We also had a tough day for Lenar, which posted earnings which did not meet expectations. And they were talking about how tough the housing market is still, despite all these aggressive incentives they've been engaging in. Yeah, I mean, well, that's one of the things, of course, if they're engaging in incentives, that brings down their margins. The 30-year fixed really is, which is going to be tied to the 10-year principally, hasn't come in. So that hasn't helped affordability, even though we have seen that median home prices have declined by about four or five percent from their all time highs.

15:07So the housing trade is going to continue to be pressured. But, you know, as you see this steepening yield curve, look, the longer end rates are going to go up for two reasons. They could go up because of higher inflation expectations. They can go up for higher growth expectations. If the central bank is being more accommodative, then we have to assume that there's some stimulative effect on the economy. So some of that is going to be economic growth related. And, you know, that's one of the reasons that we saw financials basically end the week on the highs. And look, as long as financials continue to rally, it's really hard to sell equities generally.

15:39But the housing trade, you're going to need to see affordability improve. And I just don't see how that happens in the near term. All right. Coming up, the clock is ticking on more than just a TikTok deal. Why one former Obama administration official thinks a chip trade war might be the newest major concern. That's next. Plus, a closer look at the red-hot rally in gold as it locks in this fifth straight winning week. How much juice is left in that trade right after this?

16:07This is Fast Money with Melissa Lee right here on CNBC.

16:22Welcome back to Fast Money. We've got breaking news. President Trump speaking in the Oval Office just now. Eamon Javers has been listening in. He has all the highlights here. Eamon. Yeah, Melissa, that's right. President Trump is talking TikTok in the Oval Office. He says that he and Xi Jinping did approve a deal to transfer TikTok to U.S. investors. He also says the deal is not closed and needs to be closed. He says progress on the deal is coming along very well. Here's what he said just a few moments ago. I had a great fall with President Xi, and as you know, he approved the TikTok deal, and we're in the process.

16:59We have some great investors, some of the biggest in the world, American investors, great people, and we look forward to getting that deal closed. I guess it could be a formality. I found his words to be very good. We have a very good relationship. But the TikTok deal is well on its way, as you know, and the investors are getting ready. And I think China wanted to see it stay open, too. They wanted to see it. So the president there saying the TikTok deal is well on its way and needs final approval. He was also asked about this idea of the algorithm and who would control it. He said the U.S. side will have control under the deal he's contemplating with Xi Jinping.

17:43and they discussed today. And he was asked about the idea of a U.S. government board seat on the newly reconstituted U.S. TikTok. And he did not answer that directly. He did not say for sure that the U.S. will get a board seat. He said, we'll announce that. Presumably at some point in the future, there's going to be an announcement of the specifics here. He was also asked, interesting enough, Melissa, Sean Spicer, the former White House press secretary, is in the press pool today asking questions of the president that he used to work for. And Spicer asked the president about this idea that Steve Bannon floated on Spicer's podcast of Scott Besson, the Treasury Secretary, having two hats, that is being Treasury Secretary and Chairman of the Fed at the same time.

18:28The president poured a little cold water on that idea. He said, I don't think that'll be necessary. He said he's asked Besson about being Fed chair, and Besson doesn't want the job because he likes being at Treasury. But the president did have a joke there, which was he said maybe we could save some money in salary if we have the same person as Treasury secretary and as Fed chair. All right, Eamon, thanks. Eamon Javers. Let's go on the talks between China and the U.S. and the future of TikTok and all sorts of other things. We're joined by CNBC contributor Dordrick McNeil, who served in the Obama administration.

19:00He's now senior policy analyst at Longview Global. Dordrick, great to see you. Melissa, great to see you as well. I want to focus in on this TikTok deal while we know very few details. There's one detail that Eamon did talk about just now, and that is the idea of who controls the algorithm. And the vice commerce minister earlier this week, I believe it was, said very clearly that regardless of what deal it is, it's not going to violate Chinese principles. And I would imagine that Chinese principles would include control of that algorithm which was developed by the company. What's your take on whether or not a deal like this, even though we only know sort of the vague shadows of the deal right now, whether that actually complies with what China thinks would be right in principle?

19:49Yeah, this is a very important point here, Melissa, because what you have now is what we've talked about for a while. And that's dueling laws and regulatory regimes. And I will reserve comments until I see the details of the deal. But what's coming out on the U.S. side, at least from where I am sitting, does not adhere to the protecting Americans against foreign adversarial control applications. That is the law, which talks about complete divestiture, including the algorithm here, Melissa. So, you know, again, I want to reserve judgment until I see it. But so far, it doesn't seem like this is going to adhere to that law.

20:33Dordrick, what does China gain by this? I mean, at the end of the day, again, Melissa's brought up this issue of principle. They can stand behind principle, and I think they will. And on a lot of levels, we've seen since the trade war negotiations really got going in earnest that China has made it clear that they are going to hold their ground. And largely to this point, not only have held their ground, but are in much better shape than most would have expected them to be. So why do they do this deal? And what do you think the tradeoff was? Yeah, this is also a good question here, Tim. Look, I think for China, this is all optics and principle.

21:10It is showing that it has the leverage to really defend and protect its interests, its companies. And so I don't think this is a core issue really for China, but they will continue to show the rest of the world and us that they have agency here and that they can make sure that it's clear that these are their laws, their rules, their way. And we're going to negotiate for the best deal for Chinese companies. That's what I think they get out of this, Tim. DeWardrick, let me build upon Tim's fantastic question and ask, where does Taiwan play in all this? So they are pawn in this game somehow. Is there, you know, are there levers being pulled that you give us this, we'll give you that.

21:51We'll back off on the Taiwan front. Again, you guys are on it today. Look, I think I'm very concerned at the lack of a Taiwan discussion here in Washington in this administration. I don't think this came up today in this call. And why? Because we learned that over the summer, a 400 million dollar package of defensive weapons that we had agreed to sell to Taiwan did not go through. This is music to China's ears. And so I don't know that Taiwan is a pawn. I don't think that Taiwan, unfortunately, is even an issue. And that should be concerning to a lot of people. Just this week, DeWordrick, China told its companies in China to not buy NVIDIA chips.

22:36another, it's not the H20, but it's another one, RTX 6000D, that has AI uses. And so it continues with this drumbeat of don't buy American technology because we're afraid of the national security risk on the Chinese side. And so I'm wondering, Dwardrick, if you think at the end of the day here, given this conversation between Xi and Trump, if we're any better off, if we're any closer to some sort of trade deal, if there's going to be any more progress at APEC, or if your view of the situation is the same as earlier this week, before the call? Well, look, I don't want to downplay a leader-to-leader call.

23:12That's always important. In terms of moving the Dow on the core issues, though, Melissa, I don't think that we are there. Let me just quickly say that what I hope to see happen when they meet on the sidelines at APEC is a discussion about critical minerals. That deal is set to sunset in the first week of December. We don't have an answer for critical minerals. I think that's a very important thing for us to keep at the forefront here. So, again, I think this is an important call. It's an important step. But I think we're a long ways away from some sort of comprehensive deal between the U.S. and China on trade.