Fast Money Live! The Desk Trades the Holidays as the S&P and Dow Close at Records 12/11/25

0:03Here's the audience live from the Nasdaq market site in the heart of New York City's Times Square on the night that the S &P Dow and Russell 2000 all close at records. This is a very special edition of Fast Money. The studio jam-packed with traders. Take a look at that in the Nasdaq standing room only for a final Fast Money live event of the year. We are trading the holidays with fans from across the country and around the world. Here's what's on tap tonight. Too big after the bell earnings at the two most critical areas of the market, AI and the consumer. The latest on Broadcom and Lululemon straight ahead.

0:34Plus, Disney's Big Bet, what the entertainment giant hopes to gain from its OpenAI deal and the potential risks and rewards involved. And later, guys heading down to see the Fast Money faithful and get answers to their questions about everything from pharma to crypto, nuclear power, and much more. I'm Melissa Lee. So excited you can join us here tonight for this festive night of Fast Money. As I mentioned, a big show calls for a Very big desk. So here tonight, Steve Brasso, Tim Seymour, Karen Feinerman, Dan Nathan, and Guy Adami. As I catch my breath. Happy trading the holidays, everybody. Great night.

1:08Great night. Great sweaters, everybody. Oh, yes. Men. Who wore best? Ladies look great. I'm sure it's going to be a game. That'll be on the Twitter without question. Notice I have the zipper. Tim's very jealous. Quarter zip. Quarter zip. You know what? Give me the, you've got some scissors in front of you. I'll customize mine. This is always a great event to meet everybody, to meet our fans who interact with us on a daily basis. on the screen, on the phone, on the iPad. I've seen them. Talk to them in person. It's fascinating to hear also the areas that these folks are really focusing on. And sometimes they're a step ahead of us, too.

1:37So this is an exciting night for us. This is our third one. And I expect this is going to be the best one ever. Yeah, let's kick it off here. We start off with the latest reads on the consumer and the AI trade with Lululemon, Costco, RH, and Broadcom all on the move after earnings. We'll dig into Lululemon and the retail space in just a moment. But first, to Broadcom. Shares are jumping after the chipmaker reported earnings and revenues ahead of Wall Street expectations. Also saying AI chip sales are set to double in the current quarter. The conference call kicked off just moments ago. The stock is higher by a couple percent in the after-hour session.

2:07And interestingly, this is the backdrop of Oracle last night and some other data points. Huge high bar for this one, right? Especially in the backdrop, to use your word, of what's going on in the ecosystem, right? A lot of these trades in the MAG-7 are down at least 10 percent from those all-time highs. As you know, Broadcom coming in is up 75 percent, up 200 percent from the lows. And you look at a beat in the revenues of 3 percent and a guide higher for the current quarter, up 3 percent. And you say to yourself, it's really hard to get behind this thing right now, despite it's a good quarter.

2:36It's good growth. They're guiding to doubling their, you know, AI semiconductor business there. You know, software is a big part of it. 75 percent gross margins, you know, really good earnings and sales growth expected for 2026. So it's hard to kind of shake a stick at it. But by the same token, I'm not sure there's much more for this thing to go higher right now. Christina Parts Nevelis has joined us here. Good stuff. Good stuff. I've seen it. I've seen it. Everybody's here tonight. Yeah, hence the delay. To your point, though, so Q1 revenue guide was$19.1 billion, which is almost, what,$700 million higher than what we were anticipating, we being the street.

3:10So that is a positive. The other positive was AI revenue specifically. They guided to$8.2 billion. Why do I bring that number up? because it seems to be growing at least by a billion dollars sequentially every single quarter. And Hawk 10, the CEO's pay package, is tied to AI revenue, right? And so every time they hit these bars, he makes a little bit more money. He wants to stay on board, et cetera. The other third point, too, is they increase their dividend by 10 percent. So that doesn't hurt investors, too. They enjoy that. I think on the phone call, though, which is just underway right now, we're going to be wondering, who is that fourth customer?

3:40They have Google, Meta, ByteDance, the parent of TikTok, three big players. Google contributes a lot to their custom chip revenue. Who is that fourth player? Is it Anthropic? Are we going to be hearing a little bit more about that custom business? Does that custom business get cannibalized because of that relationship with Google and the TPUs, the custom chips that they make for them, because a lot of their custom business does use those TPUs as well? So I think that's a big factor that maybe hasn't been addressed thus far. Yeah. What do you make of the stock reaction in light of what Christina said?

4:09I think this is the stock that gives a lot of relief across the sector. I mean, and by the way, for all the negativity that seems to be around the chip space and Oracle, we're going to talk about. But really, semis continue to outperform. I'm just going to remind everybody where the leadership in the market has been, even in the last four or five days. But back to Broadcom, I think it gets back to the Google TPU relationship and where suddenly this company and the custom dynamic of what they are doing and where people believe the industry is going to be is part of what makes this stock more resilient than others.

4:40and why the multiple of witches does not make sense, Dan. He's got kind of a smirk on his face. Maybe it's my sweater. I think that's the way his face is. And that's fair. But anyway, I think this brings some relief across the space, especially those folks that are not committed to mega capex. Does this bring relief to NVIDIA, or is its success in TPU seen as bad for NVIDIA? I don't think it brings relief to NVIDIA. NVIDIA is down like 16 % since its all-time high, so that's a different story, I think. If there's anything to sort of, if you want to sort of pick apart the quarter, free cash flow was light and the valuation of 44 times next year is expensive.

5:17That said, operating margins were up significantly year over year. So they're doing everything right there in high margin businesses. You got to wrap your head around the valuation. The market seems not to care right now. I agree with Di on the dominance. I mean, that it's bad for NVIDIA. So the pie is growing. I believe that. But NVIDIA was it was all their pie for a while. Right. And so the margins reflect that. And you have to think that as you know, it becomes somewhat they give up. They don't have all the share that margins would suffer. Two things for the margin comment. High bandwidth memory.

5:50The prices keep climbing really high. So I think that that was a big factor of these margins stay high. Pretty good given the price that we're seeing. The second point just with NVIDIA. Everybody keeps talking about this is the first inning. It's only going to grow from here. So that, to me, could read as maybe slightly negative for NVIDIA because if it's the first inning, NVIDIA has that pie. To your point, the pie keeps growing. But now that pie is being shifted and everybody's taking slices. Even just like Rivian today, the fact that Rivian was creating their own AI chip and not going to use NVIDIA.

6:18Or even for Broadcom, one small point. Broadcom makes chips for Google. They make these TPUs. The problem is that Google's next iteration of that TPU is going to be more in-house. So that actually could be a negative for Broadcom. And hats off to Semi-Analysis for pointing that out in a research report just over the last 24 hours. But something to keep in mind when you're talking about this stock maybe 12 months from now. Only because you asked, would I rather? Broadcom versus – I did not, but go ahead. I'm sitting far away from you. I thought I heard it. I would go with Broadcom despite the valuation.

6:50Dan said it was up 75%. NVIDIA is only up 35 % year-to-date. Custom chips. That's where the puck is going. I think that's what's scaring NVIDIA. And I think that's where they're going to give up the volume. And to Christina's point, Rivian is a testament to where the puck is going. And I think NVIDIA has pulled a lot of rabbits out of a hat. I think they might be out of rabbits. I think it's interesting because we've been talking so long about the dynamic of custom chips entering into the fray. And all of a sudden, with Gemini and the recent success of Gemini, have we talked really about the success of that TPU, which has been in the works for the past 10 years.

7:23But all of a sudden, it happened. And all of a sudden, it's here. And all of a sudden, NVIDIA is not responding well. Yeah, and I think we're all making a point, but I'll clarify my point. I do think that there are threats to some of the folks that have outperformed to this point. But the message here is that those folks that are lean and mean, evolving and are able to either customize or be able to move with the way the industry is going and are not CapEx and asset heavy are the ones that actually should feel some relief today. There's never a question about demand. And that's what this comes down to.

7:54And I don't know that we are all here questioning any of us, the demand story, but that's the part of this that I think brings some relief today, unless you're one of the legacy folks that we're talking about that really has been the lion's share. Yeah, so to Christina's point about who is that fourth customer, right? Well, it's likely OpenAI. When you think about demand. People say anthropic. Anthropic, yeah. Okay. I mean, you know, I mean, whatever. Whoever it is, it's a fourth customer. Well, what I'm saying is, like, they're both the same thing, except that OpenAI is obviously has a lot more demand for these chips right now.

8:22And we've been talking about this. I mean, listen, if OpenAI falters, right, if this Stargate thing doesn't happen the way we all expect it to, I mean, demand's going to come in. You know, it's just that simple. And so a lot of this is tied to OpenAI's demand. Anthropic, obviously, is a much smaller name. And I know that they're out there and they're doing a lot of this stuff. But to me, Sam Altman, we're all, you know, you've got to do this thing. You've got to make this happen. Otherwise, this whole AI trade really does come, I don't want to say crashing down, but it comes in pretty hard in 2026.

8:51Micron, I think to your point on high bandwidth memory, Micron's higher in the after-hour session, so that's the link there. But in terms of how the AI trade reacted today, you know, before Broadcom, what we saw was Microsoft was up by a percent. Meta caught a little bit, but still it was a little bit of a bit. I mean, it's an interesting sort of rotation that we saw today in terms of going into the AI plays that have been beaten down. Microsoft, I think, a bit of a relief rally. It's sold off pretty significantly over the last couple weeks. So that's where I'll go on that front. In terms of Facebook, it actually does make sense.

9:24I mean, I think Karen would agree with this. Got down to levels that, well, it doesn't matter if it should have been there or not. It got there. But I think the market realized, well, wait a second. We get the spend, but they have still such a huge moat, and the valuation is still compelling. I think people are piling back in, and probably correctly so. So CoreWeave opened down a fair amount, and I think that was related to Oracle. But it actually came back, closed down a little bit, maybe 1%. That was impressive. But I think of them as a proxy as well. Yeah, for the debt. For the debt, right, the whole structure of how this AI demand is going to be fulfilled.

10:00I think this, you know, we are maybe not having our market conversation right now on the show, but this really just speaks to the broadening of the market. And this really speaks to the fact that some of these, and Dan may be right. I mean, the core trade that was the AI trade for much of 25, I guess, was that the year we're in, has been relatively concise. And there's definitely been a narrow bent to it. But what we're hearing from companies and what I think even Broadcom is telling you is that there is the demand and the companies that are seeing it and that need the customization will continue.

10:30And that plays very well in for margins and the breadth we've seen in the market overall. Christina, thank you. Keep us posted on the call. Christina Parts Nevelist stock is up 3.4 percent right now. Let's get to Lululemon results. The stock is surging after the company beat top and bottom line estimates. Lululemon also announcing that CEO Calvin McDonald will step down next month after more than seven years at the helm. Courtney Reagan's been dialed into the earnings call, joins us here with the latest. Hey, Court. Hey, Mel. Yeah, so that's EO news. That's what's really driving the shares higher here.

10:57It's really overshadowing the disappointing Q4 forecast, which kind of is getting worse when we're hearing the details on the call. Lululemon has shed more than half of its market cap year to date as competition and internal inventory missteps have really eaten into the yoga wear maker's market share. So Calvin McDonald will step down at the end of its fiscal year. That's January 31st. He will stay on as a senior advisor through March. Current CFO and chief commercial officer will take over those co-CEO duties in the interim as the company looks for a permanent successor. And then on the call near the top, McDonald said he and the board, quote, agreed that the timing is right for a change as we near the end of our five-year planned cycle.

11:35I'm incredibly proud of what we've accomplished together over the past seven years. Lululemon is a very different and much stronger company today than when I first joined the organization in August of 2018. Now, Wall Street Journal is reporting separately, citing sources that Lululemon founder Chip Wilson has recently tapped some advisors for a potential proxy campaign. Remember, he took out that full-page Wall Street Journal ad in October, criticizing the company. It was titled Lululemon Colon in a Nosedive. Mel, Karen, and the dudes in sweaters, back over to you. Got a lot of sweaters on this desk tonight, Courtney, that's for sure.

12:09In terms of the Lulu story, the narrative had been that there would be newness coming in the spring. And Calvin McDonald stepping down Jan 31 before the spring tells me that maybe the board wasn't pleased with whatever newness was being promised. Yeah, that's very possible. And that's sort of what they're talking about in the call here, that, look, this newness is coming. They're saying, look, when you look at the stores right now, it's not reflective of the go forward plan. Some of that inventory is not what it's going to look like. But to your point, we knew that it wasn't there yet. But Calvin McDonald is stepping down anyway.

12:42They sort of talked about the cadence of the quarter, said August was the strongest month. October was the weakest. Then said Thanksgiving weekend traffic was pretty good. But then it slowed down after that, which is also reflected in the guidance. And one more point I'd like to make. They said in the fourth quarter here, the CFO pointed out that the drag from the elimination of the de minimis exemption and tariffs will be a 410 basis point drag to margins in the fourth quarter. Back over to you. That's kind of big. Court, thank you. Courtney Reagan from the NYSE and Lulu, your thoughts on the new CEO?

13:15Yeah, so in his tenure there, the stock has gone from like 125 to, I mean, it's seven years, though. So it's not whether the spring was going to be good or not. I don't think that it mattered. And I'm wondering, all right, who should they get? The first thing that popped into my mind was Richard Dixon from the Gap. Gap is smaller, but he's done a great job there. I'm sure they I mean, this is a plum job for a retail executive, for sure. They'll have a lot of opportunities to interview someone good. But that's the first one I thought of. It's a plum job, though, at a terrible time. I mean, I you know what we're just seeing out of the company.

13:51And there's some relief here, even in these numbers, better than expected. And I would reference even some of the main points that Randy Connick from Jeffries, who's been on the show multiple times and has nailed this, although, you know, Lulu's had a nice rally off the bottom. But if you look at what's going on with gross margin, it's really falling apart. This newness dynamic is on some level, and this is Randy's quote, something along the lines of ruining the aesthetic of the brand. That's a dynamic here that I think is something to think about. It's the ubiquity of Lulu you don't want at a time that Viore and Aloe are still taking market share.

14:22So I don't think you're jumping in here. I think the dynamics in terms of the core parts of the business, the competitive landscape and the margin profile of the company, even though it's the sentiment's been so bad, they're not getting better and they're not going to change anytime soon. Look at Nike on a change in CEO is not the answer. We had a double bottom that we talked about. It happened over the summer. We flatlined from August into the fall. And now we're starting to elevate off that double bottom from March of 2020. That makes sense. Tim's right about gross margins, deterioration there, and inventories are up about 11 % year over year, which suggests that margins are not going to get better.

14:56But with comps double what the street was looking for, this rally probably can continue a little bit. You've got to figure out where to pull the ripcord, and I think it's probably another 10%, 15 % higher. I agree with you. There's definitely some trouble here, but I think you get a great CEO. You wait for them to kitchen sink the quarter. Cheap to itself. What? Cheap to itself. Cheap to itself, true. and then it looks interesting. I mean, if you're the new CEO, why not? You've got a free pass. Do whatever you want and, you know, kitchen sink it. When Guy Adami starts buying Lululemon and yoga pass, you have to wonder.

15:31I've been saying I wear the boxer briefs every day. Not in front of a live audience guy. But isn't this less about execution and more about style? I mean, isn't that what we're talking about? You mean just athleisure in general? Well, and their athleisure in general, you know, and Tim just said it. You wear the aloe, you know what I mean? Of course I do. But, like, tastes change. I'm on the leading edge. I'm on the leading edge. This is an aloe sweater in the last few years, and we've been talking about how athleisure styles have changed. Yeah. But Ralph Lauren is the polar opposite of that. It's up 60%.

16:00And if you look at the, Tim touched on it, it's the private brands that no one's talking about that are stealing all the thunder. Coming up, Disney's blockbuster bet on AI, what its billion-dollar investment could mean for the entertainment industry. And Eli Lilly's latest obesity drug trial data shows more than just big-time weight loss, but could some smaller competitors be the stocks to buy now? The fans have some burning questions about the GLP-1 space, and we've got answers for them. More of this special night of Fast Money in two minutes.

16:33Welcome back to the special edition of Fast Money. We've got a news alert on Do Kwon, the co-founder and former CEO of crypto company Terraform Labs. I'm Mackenzie Sigalas. He's got the latest Mac. Hey, Mel, so Terraform Labs co-founder and former fugitive Do Kwan has been sentenced to 15 years in prison for his role in the$40 billion collapse of the TerraUSD stablecoin and Luna token back in 2022. It was one of crypto's largest ever failures. The judge called it a fraud on an epic generational scale. Prosecutors said Kwan's deception helped trigger the 2022 crypto winter and contributed to FTX's downfall.

17:09The sentencing also comes as the Trump administration faces scrutiny for easing crypto enforcement, including President Trump's October pardon of Binance founder Chong Peng Zhao. Mel? Mack, thanks. Mackenzie Sigalos. Let's get to Disney announcing a$1 billion investment in open AI today. The deal will allow copyrighted Disney characters to appear on the Soar AI video generator. Disney shares climbing more than 2 percent today are now up 5 percent over the past week. In a CNBC exclusive today, CEO Bob Iger said the deal will help Disney reach younger audiences. It gives us an opportunity really to play a part in what is really a breathtaking, breathtaking growth in essentially AI and new forms of media and entertainment.

17:57So do Disney shareholders like this deal, Tim? I think this could help unlock some value of the IP. I mean, that's the story and the ability also to generate some content, some videos. It's certainly great news for the creators of content out there. I mean, there's a dynamic here with AI that if it is enforced, by the way, this is I don't know if it happened today or if it was recently. But Disney's got a, you know, an IP infringement against Google, who is using their characters to train their large language models. So I think this is good news for IP everywhere, by the way. I think this is good news for Disney.

18:31I think to the extent that this is their ante into being more involved and taking their IP outward, yeah, I think it's good news. The structure of the deal, though, raised your eyebrows. Yeah, it's just weird. I mean, I don't know why they have to invest in it, right? They have warrants to buy more. So even if they didn't buy it at the$500 billion market, let's say they got a discount, they're doing a commercial deal. I mean, this is what companies do, right? If you're Disney, you license their API, you build on top of it. And on the flip side, a company like OpenAI, they want to partner with a company like Disney to get greater adoption of their products.

19:00I just find it curious, and I also find it curious relative to where Microsoft, which is not meant to be or hadn't meant to be a really innovative company over the years, they invested$10 billion, I think, back in 2023 or late 22 when the valuation was like under$50 billion. So this just seems kind of odd to me. It's also kind of circular, which is what you pointed out. Vendor financing sort of to me, right? We'll sell you RRP so you can buy RRP. We'll pay a billion dollars for estate. We will pay you. A billion dollars. Right. So then they can pay us. That was the way it seems to be happening everywhere these days.

19:33Yes, exactly. And it seems like I was involved in a lot of them. Yes. Also, to me, to your point, a billion dollars at this point. Is that is that a good housekeeping seal of approval for it? It's got to be a billion. Right. I know it's it's so small for them. I don't I don't I was sort of curious. You know, we have a live studio audience. I can't hear you here in a second. But they were clamoring for the great Carter Braxton Worth, who, as you know, is sort of on the Parthenon in terms of his. And he would say that if we can get above sort of 120, which I think we will, we will have a bearish to bullish reversal from 2022.

20:11So you get a little momentum here in Disney, and I think that momentum can continue longer than people realize. Well, you heard them back there. There is a live studio audience here tonight, and Guy, in fact, is going to head back to them. They've got a boatload of burning questions for us among the topics. Eli Lilly, AI, hyperscalers, a burrito blowout, of course. And much more, you ask, we answer, right after this.

21:00Welcome back to this special Fast Money Live event. Guy is on the ground with our fans. We've got some burning questions. A couple of stocks in the news today. So we want to kick it off with Eli Lilly. Shears jumping nearly 4 % at its highs after the PharmaGiant reported its next-gen obesity drug, Reditrutide, delivered what appears to be the highest weight loss yet in a late-stage trial while also reducing knee and arthritis pain. Guy, you've got a question on health care? I do. This crowd is ridiculously excited to be here. We have Nagy here. Stand up. By the way, as Tim knows, there's a great Joe Cocker song you can leave your hat on.

21:36I think I'll leave this on the rest of the show. But, Nagy, thanks for being here. You came all the way from Markham, Canada. Where is Markham, Canada? Markham, Canada is a little bit north of Toronto. Everything is north of here. Half an hour north of Toronto, Canada. Half an hour north of Toronto. Tim, I think you're familiar. What's your question? My question is Larry Fink said every single asset will be tokenized. What does that mean? How can you benefit from it? Every single asset tokenized. What does that mean? Karen Feynman, that's right up your alley. Well, that's a good question. I think you should go with Larry Fink, right?