In short
Fast Money episode (6/18/26) covers: (1) “full circle” market moves as inflation cools and oil/gas fall; (2) what to do with big tech/semis headlines; (3) housing and consumer read-throughs; (4) SpaceX IPO volatility; (5) a biotech IPO boom; (6) restaurant and Disney updates.
Key claims
oil dropping (WTI lowest since early Iran-war era; gas under $4) eases near-term inflation, but inflationary pressures persist via supply-chain issues, cumulative pricing, and labor/wage inflation. Investors should favor discretionary pockets (e.g., restaurants) over chasing rallies (e.g., airlines/Best Buy). Intel’s surge is headline-driven; details are unknown and Apple volumes may be limited.
Notable examples
Apple iPhone price increases due to memory costs; housing ETF XHB up 3.5%; SpaceX IPO raised ~$86B; biotech IPOs include Cardigan (public debut; $400M deal).
Guests
Gene Munster (Deepwater Asset Management), managing partner; Angelica Peebles (CNBC), biotech IPO coverage; Michael Yee (UBS), global head of biotech research; Julia Borson (CNBC), IPO/Calci and Disney segment reporting.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Chapters
Tap a time to open that second in VOOil Prices and Market Dynamics
1:48 to 4:00
Discussing the impact of oil prices on inflation and consumer behavior.
“Oil prices dropping another quarter percent today, with WTI crude settling at its lowest price since the early days of the Iran war.”
Inflationary Pressures Beyond Energy
4:08 to 6:39
Exploring various factors contributing to inflation in the economy.
“Yeah, I think your question about, like, what are the inflationary pressures right now, it just can't be energy.”
Market Evaluation and Energy Stocks
6:44 to 7:58
Analyzing the current state of energy stocks and market evaluations.
“It'll probably go back down below that or around there, stay in the 60s.”
Intel's Rise and Future Prospects
7:59 to 10:12
Examining Intel's recent performance and potential future developments.
“I think they've gotten ahead of the other side of the trade.”
Apple's Pricing Power and Market Position
10:13 to 14:00
Discussing Apple's pricing strategies and market dynamics in China.
“It's not going to make you pull back on CapEx.”
Apple's Pricing Power and NVIDIA's Growth
14:00 to 18:20
An analysis of Apple's pricing strategy and NVIDIA's consistent growth despite market expectations.
“So that was probably a headwind or perceived headwind a couple of weeks ago or months ago.”
Intel's Market Position and Alternatives
18:20 to 22:23
Discussion on Intel's performance and the growing alternatives in the semiconductor market.
“We had a guest on Closing Bell Overtime, Gil Loria, and we were walking through the story, Intel, and he was like, you know what?”
Intel's Market Position and Alternatives
22:26 to 23:16
Discussion on Intel's performance and the growing alternatives in the semiconductor market.
“The housing sector, housing gains today.”
Housing Market Insights
23:16 to 24:51
Exploring the current trends in the housing market and the impact of economic factors.
“If those are coming down, that's a great thing for the homebuilders.”
SpaceX's Stock Performance and Future Outlook
24:51 to 28:00
Analysis of SpaceX's recent stock volatility and the factors influencing its market position.
“Shares losing velocity after its record IPO.”
Show all 18 chapters
Market Volatility and Stock Movements
28:00 to 31:36
Discussion on market volatility, IPO performance, and investor behavior.
“you're going to see a lot of volatility in this, but you're going to see a lot of index inclusions.”
Biotech IPO Boom Insights
31:36 to 32:41
Analysis of the recent biotech IPO market and its resurgence.
“Stocks wrapping up the shortened holiday week in the green.”
The Future of Biotech Companies
32:41 to 35:34
Exploration of the impacts of M&A in the biotech sector and upcoming opportunities.
“So Cardigan is now the 13th biotech to make its public debut this year.”
Investment Strategies in Pharma
35:34 to 37:49
Discussion on investment strategies and stock evaluations in the pharmaceutical sector.
“So given the fact that the sector is moving, people care again, there's M &A going on, capital is happening, IPOs are happening.”
Market Dynamics and Consumer Behavior
37:49 to 39:44
Insights into changing consumer preferences and trends in restaurant stocks.
“I see that one poised to break out in the second half of the well.”
Consumer Trends in Dining
42:01 to 42:46
Discussion on consumer behavior shifts toward dining out amid economic pressures.
“So I think McDonald's, I think Domino's, too.”
Disney's Toy Story 5 and Stock Outlook
43:02 to 45:50
Analysis of Disney's Toy Story franchise and its impact on stock performance.
“Disney stock popping 3 % today as moviegoers await the release of the newest installment in the Toy Story franchise hitting theaters tomorrow.”
Final Trades Discussion
45:59 to 46:31
Hosts share their final stock trade recommendations and insights.
“I do like the health care story, and I think big pharma is on its move.”
Transcript
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1:02Live from the Nasdaq Market Sight in the heart of New York City's Times Square, this is Fast Money. Here's what's on tap tonight. Inflation in the rear view. Oil prices just about erasing their post-war gains. So how will that impact the economy, the consumer and the markets? And it's not just big tech on the IPO docket. A new wave of biotech stocks are coming to the market, too. A look at the latest entries in the space and the name's best position for your portfolio. Plus, Intel gets another big boost. Housing stocks build up gains and SpaceX comes back down to Earth a little bit. Did Elon Musk's rocket company fly too high, too fast?
1:34And what should you do with shares now? I'm Melissa Lee. Come to you live from Studio B at the NASDAQ. On the desk tonight, Tim Seymour, Courtney Garcia is back. Welcome back. Dan Nathan and Steve Grasso. We start off with that full circle moment for the markets. Oil prices dropping another quarter percent today, with WTI crude settling at its lowest price since the early days of the Iran war. Gas prices also down, falling below$4 a gallon nationally on average and giving some relief to consumers this summer travel season. Major averages, meantime, in the green today. The S &P climbing back into positive territory for the week, though all still a percent or more from records.
2:12So with one big driver of recent inflation pressure seemingly behind us, What is next for the markets, Tim? Well, it's it's compare this to where we were a day ago when I think we rightly both on the desk and I think the market sorted through it today and said the Fed isn't suddenly necessarily more hawkish. The interpretation, the messaging is different. And the reality is that there were inflationary dynamics in the pipeline even before war began. In fact, we even saw energy prices rising before war. I think we would also all say energy prices probably will remain higher for longer. It doesn't mean that they have to be, though, north of$90 a barrel.
2:49And in fact, you look at the futures curve on oil and it tells you what we know. There will be restocking. There will be concerns about energy security. But let's face it. There are parts of the market that still, I think, are very attractive if you expect that we're going to hold$75 oil. And you think by that July 4th weekend, I mean, how many people have come on the show to say that's the critical day that we have to have oil back down or we have to reassess a lot of our estimates for the market. So I think it's important that we have the dynamics we have in place. I think it's important for investors to understand.
3:20There are dynamics indiscretionary that I don't think change for the consumer. I do think that there are trades out there related to hospitality, restaurants, cruise lines to some extent. I think the airlines actually are an example of where you're actually above where we were before the war. And I think, you know, while I like airlines, I think I would be careful to chase that kind of a rally. Just to put a fine point on what you said, I mean, do you think that the inflationary pressures that existed before the war, they are still in place now? So even if oil came down, which it has, those inflationary forces are still there and will exert themselves?
3:51I think they are there. So we are in an inflationary environment still. I think there are parts of discretionary. You know, I mean, Best Buy has had a massive, massive rally. I'd be a little bit worried about that. But I do think that there are parts of whether you were talking about a McDonald's or even a Home Depot, I think they were overly punished by what the impact was on the consumer. Yeah, I think your question about, like, what are the inflationary pressures right now, it just can't be energy. And I think, you know, Fed Chair Warsh kind of spoke to this a little bit. I mean, the supply chain disruptions going back to the trade war, you know, about 13, 14 months ago, I mean, they're still in place.
4:21And then I think you have to focus on the cumulative nature of inflation. Mel, you guys just talked about with on the last show, I mean, talking about where car prices are right now. I mean, there's just, you know, you look around and you say that these are not the sorts of things that are going to come down a month, two, three. And, you know, when you think about this 60 day MOU right here, the ceasefire, I mean, there's going to be well, there should be a premium built into, you know, oil and some of these other things that I think, you know, consumers are kind of, you know, kind of having a difficult time with right now.
4:50And I think that the war obviously just exasperated that to some degree. But when you look at all the things that are moving around here in the markets, you know, it doesn't really reflect, I think, what's going on in the, you know, with the consumer and the economy right now. So to me, you know, the stock market at 7 ,500, by the way, it closed exactly at 7 ,500 today, which is pretty interesting. You know, 1 % off the highs. I don't think that reflects some of the issues that we have as far as the economy is concerned. I mean, think of all the bottlenecks. Bottlenecks imply inflated prices. I mean, we just saw Apple raising the prices of their iPhones because of memory costs.
5:26And we're seeing inflation in other ways, and it's not energy. Yeah, and I think one other way that we're seeing inflation that I don't think people are talking enough about is the shortage in the labor market. When you see the amount of baby boomers who are retiring, the amount of people who are turning like 70 or 80 every single month, and we have this immigration pullback, there is a real labor shortage, which causes wage inflation. So even if we do see oil prices come down, which they are and I think is going to be very helpful in the short term, you do have some of these other pressures. So I think really the way I look at it is energy coming down is a great thing, but I think it's also particularly a good thing for foreign markets, probably more so than the U.S.
6:00markets, and it can actually lead to a really good opportunity there. So I think we were oversupplied in oil before the Iranian war started. So Tim brought up the restocking. I think that's the biggest bullish thing for the price of oil that I could put my finger on, that all these SPRs are going to have to be refilled. But we were oversupplied. And now you have the Saudis are going to be pumping more. Russia, the sanctions are removed. Iran, we didn't bomb anything to do with their oil. So that's another two plus, maybe three million barrels per day coming on. And then there was demand destruction from high prices.
6:34So probably to the tune of 5 million barrels per day globally. Saying all of that in place, I think that oil can probably get back down. It was$67 or so before the war. It'll probably go back down below that or around there, stay in the 60s. Below pre-war levels. Yeah, I think it could go. But like I said, the only thing that makes me think maybe it won't is the restocking. But other than that, I think we still are oversupplied, even grossly oversupplied from where we were at that point from the from the war. But but I don't think it's something we should worry about right now. Remember, CPI was two point four percent prior to the war.
7:15So 60 percent is not all, but 60 percent of this was a supply issue in inflation. So I do think Apple, memory, backlogs, everything. I think all of that is sort of interconnected. And I think once the Hermuz Strait opens up, the rest of that stuff will dissipate and we'll see inflation come down dramatically. Citi's stuck with its one cut in 2026. I think we probably will see a cut in 2026. Well, through the lens of pre-war and what now, oil, energy stocks specifically, they are lower than when the war started. Why are they worse off today? in your view? I mean, why would the markets? They were tending even before war to discount what was going on in the Middle East and I think got ahead of the trade.
8:01I think they've gotten ahead of the other side of the trade. But again, if I'm looking for and then I would also just take the bottom up fundamentals on integrated oils. When you're talking about companies at four to five percent dividend yields, but free cash flow yields in the double digits that in some level have never been more profitable technology and some of that innovation has actually made these companies better investments. I actually think they're very interesting here. I mean, I remember Karen was saying she wanted to buy that weakness. I do think part of the dynamic on weaker oil prices, also back to what Courtney was saying, thinking about the global trade, too.
8:34Dollars had an incredible two-day run, and ultimately that's not great for international assets. But who are the greatest beneficiaries of lower oil prices? It's Germany. It's the EU. Japan. It's parts of Asia. Exactly. Japan. And I think that bodes very well for those trades that were working before this. I think the dollars days of having, you know, 3 percent over two days are going to be more of a rarity than a commonplace. Yeah. And I don't mean to sound so bearish on the economy. I mean, there's a lot of things that are going particularly well. And I think if you look at the lower part of the K, that's where we're starting to hear.
9:04Well, not starting. We've seen that before. It's four dollars gasoline, you know, a gallon at the pump. It's, you know, mortgage rates that are not coming down meaningfully. It's health care costs that have gone up a lot. Obviously, we just talked about inflation. But if you look at like CEO, and I think there was a report out recently, CEO confidence is working higher. And a lot of that has to do with the fact if you're exposed to the AI data center build. I mean, look at Caterpillar just made new highs today. I mean, it's debatable to me how closely correlated that is. And so a consumer that is usually two thirds of the GDP and it's been a big part of growth, data centers kind of crowding out that growth.
9:40So a slight pullback there. And I think the Apple news is important, right? If they're going to start passing through some of these increased costs from components, then sooner or later, that could be the sort of thing that you're going to start to see a little bit of a pullback, especially if you don't see the commensurate demand, right? You have a$1 ,300 iPhone that's coming out in the fall. Well, you might not have the numbers that you did in China. That was a big acceleration. That was a real slow sort of spot over the last year and a half. So I just think that there's a lot of disconnect between what's going on in different parts of the economy.
10:13And I think, you know, if you saw S &P earnings in Q1 growing 25 % year over year and you benefited from that as a company and it was supposed to be, you know, mid-teens or something like that, that is going to give you confidence. It's not going to make you pull back on CapEx. And when you look at the employment picture, you know, it's kind of a low hire, low fire situation. But we've definitely seen some white collar jobs around the edges. And that's the thing that I think in the future could weigh on higher end demand. All right, let's get to Intel here, because those shares surged more than 10 percent today.
10:43This after President Trump said the company will partner with Apple to design and build chips in the United States. Intel more than tripling so far this year, up nearly 500 percent since the U.S. took a stake in the beaten down semi-company last August. Good for us as shareholders, in theory, I guess. But is this warranted? I mean, does this make sense? Intel's foundry business, I mean, I don't know. Can it make it make what Apple wants, the volumes that Apple wants? Just interesting that these kinds of announcements are coming from Washington. I mean, it's, you know, I can understand the strategic element of this.
11:17And this is why Intel has rallied. And we said this when the stock was at 25. So, I mean, I'm not it's not a back padding exercise here. It's simply to say this is semiconductor USA. This is absolutely on some level in terms of their production self-sufficiency. However, their production isn't even close to where it needs to be. And so on an evaluation basis, no. In terms of Apple, who went out of their way to not work with Intel for decades, to suddenly think that now suddenly there's a more interesting game within Apple. No, it's that strategically they have to be sourcing more inside the United States.
11:51And I think this is a headline more than it is in actuality. Yeah. The P.E., though, is real. And it's much more expensive than a lot of other chips in the space. Even the ones that we say have gone up in a parabolic fashion, like a Micron or a Western Digital or Seagate, I mean, the price earnings ratio on Intel, either current or forward, is much greater. Yeah, I mean, when you look at where Intel was a year ago to today, I mean, this has been a complete turnaround of this story. And I think a lot of that does have to do with their foundry business and the hope that there actually can be something that's coming to fruition there.
12:22And that's what those headlines are today. If you're going to see that, Apple, it really does give the demand. But I would caution investors, especially after a big jump today. We have no details on this. We don't know what chips they're making. Is this for the iPhone? Is this for the Mac? Are these their highest end chips? Are they not? What amount of them? Like there's some sort of deal. Oh, Courtney, come on. It's worth 10%, isn't it? Why not, you know? So, you know, I want to hear more details before we make any trades on that. Absolutely. Let's bring in Fast Money friend Gene Munster, managing partner at Deepwater Asset Management.
12:51Gene, great to have you with us. Hello. Is the move in Intel crazy? Yes, is the simple answer. And I'm there with Tim. And Courtney, you asked, like, what are the details around this? We can kind of put some good guesses around what it could mean. And if you take their business, this being Apple's business, with TSMC, so TSMC reports them as customer B. That's about a$21 billion business last year. Assume that it's up marginally. Best case scenario, probably Intel gets 10 % of that business over the next several years. I consider that best case. that would effectively add about 5 % to Intel's business.
13:28I mean, we're talking about pretty small pieces to it. And Melissa, as you said, they still have a while to kind of ramp up all the production around this. And so, you know, at the surface, this looks like joyful news. But I think when you kind of really dig into it, I think this is just another example of how Intel is becoming a meme stock. Gene, switch gears with me. Let's talk Apple. So China has seemed to go from an overhang to a tailwind for Apple. And with a$2.6 billion base, install base, does it seem like with the headlines today, they've got pricing power? So that was probably a headwind or perceived headwind a couple of weeks ago or months ago.
14:08Do you think it's an all clear, quote unquote, for Apple? Can you be a buyer of Apple right now? Well, there's on the fundamental side, I think there's obviously more room for optimism. And just to kind of put all that into context is the key question around this price increase comes down to margins for next year. And the most recent reported March quarter, they had 49 % margins. The street was looking for 48 for fiscal 27. And so kind of that 1 % decline. Effectively, this is going to mean that margins are going to be probably 49 % or kind of equal or maybe even better. So yes, I think this shows pricing leverage.
14:43And to really define the pricing leverage, if you take the approach that the price of an Apple product goes up by 10%, that would take, for example, like an iPhone Pro, that would add up just under$2 per month in the cost of ownership. And so there's clearly the value of this. They're going to be able to do that. Your bigger question about like, is Apple at a turning point? And this is all good news around the fundamentals and the fact that Cook feels that he needs to communicate this. It's going to be a big change in terms of their pricing, undoubtedly. But still, the real question comes down to the substance comes down to do they have chops and AI, maybe potentially a conversation for a different day.
15:22I think they'll get there. I think the jury's still out for most investors. Hey, Gene, you know, you and I talk more frequently than you're on here, and you've been consistent for three years as it relates to NVIDIA that when you look at consensus numbers, that they are not high enough, and they've been beating the bar consistently. This is something that I thought would have slowed down dramatically. This is stuff that you and I have argued about a little bit. But this year, they're expected to do 80 % earnings and sales growth. And the margins are really stuck here in the mid-70s. When I say stuck here, amazing that they're still here at 75%.
15:53So you have that expected deceleration of 40 % earnings and sales growth for the next fiscal year. Are they going to beat it again? And is the stock too cheap at 17 times? The simple answer is they're going to beat the 40%. They've given their language at their developer conference a month and a half ago was basically got you to the 40 % for next year. So if he's already talking about that, they're probably, and just given everything we're hearing about what's going on in the pricing environment and demand is probably a sign that they're going to be probably the best indicators of what's going on with Google and how they've raised this money recently, this$80 billion ended up being$85 billion to fund some of their capex.
16:31That's relative to NVIDIA, of course, because they'll be spending more with that. But what it comes down to, I think one of the biggest benchmarks is the street was looking for, as you mentioned, and looking for 40 % growth for NVIDIA. For the hyperscalers, the CapEx growth was around 15%. Now, since the Google News, that's bumped up to the low 20s. But the reality is that they're probably going to be growing in the 40 % range. And I expect, ultimately, NVIDIA is probably a 60 % to 70 % grower next year. Hey, Jean. So just looking back at Intel and kind of the news that's happening there, I'm just curious if this is the eyeballs they need.
17:07I mean, realistically, this is the second least least-owned semi in the S &P 500. And I think the question is, is this going to give the hopefulness to enough investors out there to get into it? So whether the fundamentals are there or not, or the details are there, will that lead anything to the stock? Do you think that's actually worth jumping in at all? Well, looking at the valuations, I mean, this really surprised me today. Over the last six months, I think Intel's up 200 percent, NVIDIA's up 20 percent. You know, when we were talking a few months ago on this, Intel was trading at a 5x revenue multiple on next year.
17:37Now it's comparable to where where NVIDIA is now a slightly different business. If you look at TSM's multiple, they're also complement. TSM trades at a one times higher revenue multiple next year. But there's basically parity. So Courtney, when I think of all this together, to me, I can understand the big thematic trade, and that can continue to work. But I think the substance here, Intel wants a seat at the big person table, the big tech team table. They've got it seemingly today, but I suspect in a year or two years. We'd love to see them be successful, but this is just simply a company we don't want to own right now.
18:15Gene, thanks. Great to see you. Thank you. Gene Munster, Deepwater Asset Management. We had a guest on Closing Bell Overtime, Gil Loria, and we were walking through the story, Intel, and he was like, you know what? There are so many other ways to invest in the chip sector. I mean, if you want the CPU story, there's AMD. If you want, I mean, foundry business, you could do TSM. If you want the U.S. champion story, You can go NVIDIA or Micron. I mean, so many ways and much cheaper ways. Would you agree? Yes. Not only would I agree, but again, all these different like the agentic AI pivot for Intel, like I'm reading these reports and it just it doesn't it doesn't really make sense.
18:51Like this is on a day when semiconductors as a group. So if you wanted to own the group, the SMH made a new relative high against the S &P. And that to me is extraordinary. And that's that's you know, that's what I care a lot more about for the market, but also for just owning semiconductors. I still think that there's a lot of pent-up demand in this trade. Some of the valuations are absurd. But I don't need to own Intel other than it feels for many people that this is a FOMO situation, that there's an announcement that's around the corner that's a silver bullet for this company, and I just don't see it.
19:23I mean, the whole sector feels a little bit FOMO-ish. I mean, take a look at the intraday chart today. I mean, the group closed at the highs. We're going to a three-day weekend with an MOU signed in Iran. But still, like, we don't really know a lot of the details. It's not bulletproof, that's for sure. And yet they pressed into the close. Yeah, this might surprise you on the Intel in particular. I was, you know, really wrong. I mean, when they, you know, were up 100 percent, they had that huge gap following that quarter in guidance a few months ago. I mean, it just didn't make a lot of sense to me.
19:53And so it doubled from 40 to 80 in a month. And now we're 80 to 135 in another month and a half. And when I look at this, I think it's really important to put some context in there. It's like this chip at this node at this fab here in the U.S. for Apple. I mean, Apple, to Tim's point earlier, they couldn't get away from the Mac chips fast enough. They built their own chip. It was an ARM-based thing. It was much faster. It was much better. And that's how they integrated it into their Macs. But Mac is like 9 percent of their business right now. And they will never, ever give all of that business to Intel here, who has not proven that they can build chips for other people.
20:31Right now, their fabs are basically making their own chips. Until very recently, that's not something that was in demand. You know, you make the point about AMD server chips. They overtook them years ago in this. So this is a company that is misexecuted, and they've also just not been able to build. So to me, I just don't think this is a big story for Intel. Coming up, a load-bearing trade, a strong foundation building in housing stocks. Can the group keep breaking new ground? That is next, plus SpaceX losing thrust. Shares pulling back for a second straight day after a record liftoff. What's next for that stock and whether the fall back down to earth will continue.
21:05Don't go anywhere fast when he's back in two.
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22:21VGW Group, void where prohibited by law. CT &C's 21 Plus, sponsored by Jumbo Casino. Welcome back to Fast Money. The housing sector, housing gains today. The XHB ETF up 3.5 % and 15 % in just a month. Meritage, Pulte, Toll Brothers and more all outperforming the broader markets. And take a look at home improvement stocks. RH ending the day higher by 9%. Williams-Sonoma, Lowe's, Home Depot also popping. What'd you make of this, Court? So we came off yesterday after the Fed speak, and everybody was assuming that rates are going to go up this year. You saw expectations of rates rising this year dramatically go up.
22:54And then today you see the rate sensitive sectors like your home builders are actually rising. And I think really what that is illustrating is the fact that Fed speak is not as important as the actual data. And oil prices going down means disinflation. And so people are betting on interest rates and affordability improving, which is very good for the home builders. And there is still such demand going towards homes. But it is people being able to put them on the market or being able to afford their payment with those interest rates. Those are the constraints right now. If those are coming down, that's a great thing for the homebuilders.
23:21And that's what you're seeing today. I also thought what was interesting was Kevin Warsh and getting a glimpse of where he sees things being restrictive and not restrictive. And housing is one area that he said does still remain, you know, where it's restrictive out there. Equity markets, not so much, but housing definitely. I don't know. Did we ever hear Powell say that? I think we might have. I'm not sure. I can't say one or the other. But it was refreshing. This is the new guy in town. It was refreshing to hear him say it and to have him talk about it in two different areas. But I think the reason why we bounced today in these names were, as Court said, money coming out of energy allows more money to go into mortgage.
23:57And if you have that money cycling through, the homeowner has really been under a lot of pressure trying to make that mortgage payment. And that's why we've seen two different markets, the preexisting and the new homes market. I don't think we necessarily need lower rates right now because markets are not going to get them. But as long as oil goes down, these go up. I think oil going from 100 down to gas going from five dollars down to four dollars is another bag of fertilizer at Home Depot. I mean, it really is. I think I think the correlation there is high. I think that's the discretionary disposable income for a lot of the middle class.
24:34And I think Home Depot is not really a function of what's going on in the housing market. It's a function. I mean, in fact, on some level, less of a housing market is more buoyant for Home Depot demand, because they think there are more renovations and kind of redo projects. There's a lot more Fast Money to come. Here's what's coming up next. SpaceX gets out of orbit. Shares losing velocity after its record IPO. What's bringing the stock back down to Earth? And will gravity keep pulling this one back in? And speaking of IPOs, the latest public market debuts out of the biotech space. How these stocks are pushing that trade higher and whether you should add them to your portfolio.
25:15You're watching Fast Money, live from the NASDAQ market side in Times Square. We're back right after this.
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26:45So what are you waiting for? Play Chumbo Casino and enter for your chance to win. Let's Chumbo. Only available in permitted states. No purchase necessary. See terms and conditions for details. VGW Group. Void or prohibited by law. 21 plus. Sponsored by Chumbo Casino. Welcome back to Fast Money. It's SpaceX losing altitude once again today. Dropping as much as 10 % at its lows of the session. The stock posting back-to-back down days after rocketing nearly 70 percent from its IPO price. How many puns can you have in there? Rocketing, altitude. What's wrong with the little fun? We love puns, but I mean that.
27:17But she delivered it straight. There wasn't even any hat tip. Look, rocketing, I could no longer sit on the sidelines. I'm going to get back to the story here. The company, which raised nearly$86 billion in this offering, is reportedly now preparing for a bond sale for at least$20 billion more. What do you make of this high volume activity? Which part? The bond sale? Or are we talking about just the stock itself? All right. So the bond sale is normal for IPOs to do that. But the stock itself, it was up, you said, 70 percent or close to 70 percent or wherever. So you have retail, you have institutions, you have institutions that want a piece of Anthropic, that want a piece of open AI.
27:55So no one wants to sell it on the record. So people hold it and then they sneak sell it or they sell it. you're going to see a lot of volatility in this, but you're going to see a lot of index inclusions. And those are coming. So I had originally thought maybe two weeks would be the weakness. But then the cursor headline took over that. And that was a bullish time frame for SpaceX because everyone was worried about valuation. And cursor brought a heck of a lot of revenue to the table. So I think you're going to see some bouncing around these next couple of days. But I think ultimately, Hopefully the indice ad will add some uplift to it.
28:31But usually when you trade it, you want to sell that indice ad. You don't want to buy on that day. You want to buy on the trough and then sell on that day. Yeah. Have you had a lot of clients ask you about this? Yes. Yeah, this happened right when I came back to work. Yeah. So, yeah, good timing here. But I think there's a stock which, Tim, you know, unfortunately, I can't go straight to the moon to add another. You know what? Good for you. Good for you. But I do think, I mean, this is something that was really oversubscribed. And when you look at it, there was about$300 billion of investor cash that were willing to go into this that wasn't accepted.
29:02And we actually had that with our own client base where they were willing to put a certain amount of money into the IPO, and only a little more than half of that was even accepted. And a lot of that money is still there because people just saw it immediately go up two days in a row. You're not going to buy more. They're waiting for debts to happen. So I don't know where the stock is going to go short term, but I do think there is more demand there that I think you're going to see some of that getting bought on the debts here. And, of course, there's also the foreign buyers who are barred from participating at all.
29:25So we're seeing them in the aftermarket, presumably, they come in. You know, the fact that the stock's at 185 after IPO-ing at 135 are really the two numbers you need to talk about. Because, again, whether we went to the moon and back, it doesn't really matter. You know, ultimately, the stock has a significant amount of technical demand that's still behind it. We know that a lot of the lockups are really probably out still another two months. I think there's also seemingly some sense of wanting to own a piece of the economy that there aren't a lot of options. And I do think there will be some cash raise for Anthropik and OpenAI.
30:02But in the meantime, I think this pullback is nothing. Normal. Nothing. Well, listen, if rates aren't going lower and all these companies are selling, you know, raising money via debt, I mean, this is not a great setup. A lot of these companies are using a lot of their cash flow to do this AI infrastructure build. That means they're going to be spending less in buybacks. Right. And so I just think there's a lot of dynamics. You know, if you do see a pullback in CapEx and these companies have debt to equity ratios that they have not had in the past, you're going to start questioning a lot of how these companies have managed their balance sheets and how they've allocated their capital.
30:38And so to me, I just find it interesting. Think about it. I mean, you have Meta, you have Amazon, you have Alphabet, you have NVIDIA. These companies are all raising cash right now, and they can't do it fast enough. So, you know, to me, this seems like it's getting to a point. By Apple. Yeah, and it's not the only company that's not. But, you know, and one of the problems is Apple operating from a fundamental standpoint in a way that makes you want to go out and buy it at 35 times, right? Because, you know, AI and Apple intelligence and Siri, there's a lot you've got to figure out going into this.
31:10And so, you know, at a price point where a lot of investors may just say or a lot of consumers just may say, I'm pretty happy with going on here. And if I don't see a real benefit of having AI on the device, this$20 app that I'm using is working pretty well. Coming up, a big year for BioTek. The XBI ETF surging nearly 70 percent over the past 12 months. And there may be an even better prognosis for the space as its IPO market heats up. More on that when Fast Money returns. Welcome back to Fast Money. Stocks wrapping up the shortened holiday week in the green. Dow up 75 points. S &P jumping more than a percent.
31:45And the Nasdaq leading the gains climbing nearly 2 percent. Shares of Salesforce extending its longest losing streak with its 13th straight day of losses. Shares down nearly 28 percent in that time. Tech consulting company Accenture dropping nearly 18 percent. That's its worst day ever. The company lowering guidance due to the Middle East conflict and announcing acquisitions of or stakes in three separate companies. a deal, combined deals valued at more than$4 billion. And Kroger, also falling, shares down 8 % in its worst day in over five years. The grocery store chain is slightly missing earnings estimates and signaling that a pressured consumer could weigh on near-term performance.
32:23Well, meantime, heart drug maker Cardigan surging more than 37 % today in its public debut. This on the heels of Cancer Biotech Parabolus' big IPO last week. So is this just the beginning of the biotech IPO boom. CNBC's Angelica Peebles is here on set with more of this, Angelica. Hey, Melissa. Well, it's great to be here on set with you guys. So Cardigan is now the 13th biotech to make its public debut this year. And that$400 million deal, bringing the total deal value for the year to about$5 billion. And that's a post-pandemic high, according to DealLogic. And that might not sound like a lot after SpaceX, of course, but it's a much welcome rebound for biotech after a tough few years.
32:59Remember, we saw a huge boom of biotech IPOs during the pandemic, But 172 biotechs went public in 2020 and 2021, raising around$36 billion. And then interest rates went up and investors went risk off. And you also saw many preclinical companies go public. So these were companies that were selling investors on ideas rather than data. And now you see investor appetite for biotech IPOs coming back. But the companies have assets that are mid to late stage. And so take cardigan. The CEO, Tassos Giannakakos, telling me that the company got to the point where it has data for each of its three programs coming within the next year and that public investors were wanting to invest in ahead of those milestones.
33:37I talked to Jordan Sachs, who leads health care listings here at the Nasdaq, and he says that investors are indeed coming back, but again, for more mature pipelines. And he says that it's possible we'll see 25 biotech IPOs this year. Tried to ask him which ones. He wouldn't give me any names, but much more to come, guys. 25. That's a lot on top of what we've had. Angelica, stay right there. For more on what's ahead for biotech, Michael Yee of UBS joins us now. He's a global head of biotech research. I almost said you're old for him. Sorry. Michael, great to have you with us. Great to be here. We've known each other for a long time.
34:09We were just having a conversation. I mean, there are generalists who are coming back into the sector. So there is a buzz around biotech that is more robust than in the past. Yeah. Look, you know, We had a lot of tough years that you were referring to. It's been a bit of a bear market. And we see a resurgence. The resurgence is multi-year. I could see this playing out over the next year or two. Drug pricing is mostly behind us. And most importantly, the surge is being driven by a lot of M &A. There's record M &A numbers. Pharma's face the biggest patent cliffs that they've had ever. And these big pharma companies are buying up all the biotechs.
34:46They've got to fill that patent cliff. They've got to find new growth. Biotech has been down and out. So people are coming back into the space and it's happening. It's interesting what Angelica pointed out in terms of what kinds of companies are going public and that they're the later stage companies, because that also coincides with the kind of targets that big pharma companies want. So there's a high demand for this sort of mid to later stage cycle company. Yeah, it is. If you look at the patent cliff that are coming over the next couple of years, Merck, we were talking about, faces a$25,$35 billion patent cliff.
35:18Pfizer, Bristol, huge patent cliffs. These are happening over the next few years. We need mid to late stage assets, de-risked, that are coming to the market in the next few years. And they're ripe for acquisitions. Investors obviously want to benefit and play in that mix. So given the fact that the sector is moving, people care again, there's M &A going on, capital is happening, IPOs are happening. This is all the makings of a cycle. And I think we want to be there for it. And I agree with that, Michael. And I do think as an investor, but also from what we've seen, it has been out of favor. I think there's a lot of underweights in health care.
35:53It hasn't responded defensively. But let's go to Merck, because we know about Keytruda, we know about pipeline issues, and we know that they need to go out and spend. But but Pfizer did the same thing. Pfizer spent 40 billion dollars to get past their their covid windfall and the stock's been punished. So why is why is Merck just being out there having to buy a reason to buy Merck? There's a big difference. You see, Pfizer did a tremendously big deal at$40 billion. Basically, it's fully levered, can't do a lot. You take a look at Merck. They've basically been doing a string of pearls like strategy.
36:24They've done five, six deals less than$10 billion, mostly de-risked, diversified portfolio. They're not all eggs in one basket. And when you do that and stack it up, we see that they've got 20, 25 billion over the next few years. That's going to replace most of that key tree to Patent Cliff. Stock is cheap, trades at 12 times. I see that stock breaking out. Could get 14, 15 times on$10, about$140,$150. So I think that's going to play over the next few years. We like that strategy. I think Avvi is going to be doing some more deals. Pay attention to that. They're talking about that a lot more. Amgen's got to do some deals.
36:56And honestly, take a look at Lilly. Even though Lilly doesn't have a patent cliff, they did three deals on a Tuesday. They just bought Sintessa. They've got the biggest balance sheet. They've got all the money that you can do, and they're going to be taking a look at a lot of stuff. So there's more to come. And, Mike, everyone talks about Lilly. You know, you talk about their deals. But what are the other pharma companies that you think are, you know, maybe underappreciated or you think are the interesting stories for the rest of the year? So, look, we'll refocus on Merck, I think, is one. I think there's a real turnaround situation there.
37:23Everybody knows about the patent cliff, makes everybody scared about it. You take a look at what happened with AbbVie and even Amgen, which had patent cliffs. They grow through it. Stocks go right through it and they go higher. So Merck is number one. Number two, we want to take a look at Vertex. Vertex is down 50 points year to date. Still red on the year. A lot of people are concerned about a competitor, cystic fibrosis drug. We think it's not going to be a big deal. This stock is poised to move back to the upside, 500 bucks. I see that one poised to break out in the second half of the well.
37:51So a lot of good opportunities there. We think biotech is back. How about identifying targets? Yeah. Put me on the spot. Are you game? We're game. I think we have a pretty good track record, Melissa. of. We take a look at the history books. Look, Apogee is one, ticker APGE. That's one we think could be a target. They've got a phase three atopic dermatitis drug. Take a look at that one. We like Cogent. They're on file with two drugs to the FDA. That's a good one. NBX is another one, phase three, rare disease and an obesity drug that's been getting a lot of attention. So these are all playing right into the hands of exactly what pharmaceutical companies need.
38:33And these are not big transactions. A couple billion dollars here and there, string of pearls. That's a strategy that you want to do. And it's almost a little like FOMO. You're watching Lilly do deals. You're watching Merck do deals. If you're the pharma company that hasn't been doing stuff, what's going on? Michael, great to see you. Thanks for playing ball with us. Great to see you, guys. And Angelica, thank you for joining us, Angelica Peebles. Inbound questions about pharma? Are you seeing interest? We are, and I think some of this is the rotation story. I think there's just so much talk about AI, And I think that's the main story.
39:02But investors are really starting to look to other areas. And this is one of those areas where people are saying, OK, we might actually see some growth here. And it's maybe a lot less less sexy and exciting than AI and what's happening in that space. But I think people are really interested here. And I think that you're going to continue to see that. We've got a news alert on Calci. Julia Borson's got the details. Julia. Melissa, Calci has passed two billion dollars in annualized revenues in early IPO talks. This according to a report in the information, the information noting that the talks are early and the company is unlikely to list until late next year or even 2028.
39:35We should also note that CNBC and Calci have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and minority investment. Melissa. All right, Julia, thank you. Julia Borsten. Seems like they should strike while the iron's hot, I guess. Yeah, late 27. Get out there, man. You know what I mean? Like, you know, think about just the scarcity that we have in some of the exciting things that are going on in tech. And, you know, let the market decide, because obviously there's scarcity in the private markets here, too. So, you know what? It's a company that's obviously grown a lot faster than a lot of people think.
40:05And it looks like they are executing pretty well. But Calci has been I think we're all saying kind of the same thing. Calci has been a blue chip stock out there for people to own in the private market for a while. In other words, there's access to Calci. People own it much like they did with SpaceX. And so I just and SpaceX and OpenAI will be interesting that are coming out because there may be Calci might say in six months or nine months, you know what? We kind of like it here. And the valuation that we have, we might not have in public markets. I'm not suggesting that there isn't still some meat on the bone and their business is growing.
40:37But I just think that the private markets are in a place now where a lot of investors have access in a way that they didn't. There's blue chips out there. Calci is I bet. I don't know what the number is of the people that are watching our show right now. There's a reasonable number of people that own Cal sheet. Coming up, one of our traders is getting hungry. Restaurant stocks they are biting into. And what could be the next move for burgers, burritos, and brew stocks? Fast Money is back in two.
41:06Welcome back to Fast Money. Restaurants in rally mode. Sector winners today include Wingstop, Dutch Bros, Cracker Barrel, BJ's, and Jack in the Box. Those stocks and several others have seen double-digit gains in just one month. Tim, you were interested in this group earlier today. Well, I think they fall into the category of the names that have been the one brain cell trade outside of airlines to sell in the world of higher gas prices. And I think in the case of McDonald's, this is a company that we kind of know what's going on with their core, at least, demo, and it's not been a great run for a long time.
41:38But their innovation in terms of the value meal and where they sit and on valuation themselves, McDonald's is actually kind of interesting here. So I think this is where I'm saying I think there is more on the rebound of oil at$75. It's not to go buy. It's not to sell your energy shares necessarily. And it's not necessarily to go buy airlines. I think it's to go buy restaurants. I think it's to buy best of breed. So I think McDonald's, I think Domino's, too. I think sentiment there has been so poor. And I think there are some elements of where I think the fundamentals outweigh the sentiment. Yeah.
42:13Courtney, you agree? Well, I think there was also news from Kroger that came out, and they're saying that they're actually seeing pressure on their consumer. But I'm wondering, too, to your point, are people just getting more comfortable not buying groceries and going out to eat again, which would actually be a really positive thing on the consumer if, in fact, that is happening. So I don't think the most exciting trade out there, but, yes, I agree with you. I think there's absolutely an opportunity. If you look at the chart on Darden, that one is outperformed. It's up 16 percent. The rest of them, the charts look washed out.
42:41So, yes, they could bounce there. But I always like to buy the one that's been successful in difficult times. So I'd stick with Dart. Coming up, Disney going back to the toy box, what to expect from the latest in the Toy Story franchise and whether it can help send the stock to infinity and beyond. More Fast Money is back in two.
43:02Welcome back to Fast Money. Disney stock popping 3 % today as moviegoers await the release of the newest installment in the Toy Story franchise hitting theaters tomorrow. The company hoping to make up for a disappointing box office for the new Mandalorian movie last month. Julia Borson is back with more. Julia. Well, Toy Story 5's debut is a big moment for new CEO Josh DiMauro, who has declared his focus on investing in Disney's intellectual property. The film is expected to top$150 million at the domestic box office, which would be a franchise record and the year's biggest opening. It would also be meaningful after the disappointing performance of Disney's Mandalorian movie last month.
43:40Toy Story has been a key franchise for Disney, which says it's driven$16 billion in revenue for the company over the three decades since the first film. And Toy Story is the most watched film franchise on Disney Plus, with over two billion hours streamed. Now, since DeMauro took over Disney on March 18th, the stock has been essentially flat as he has managed a series of challenges. He initiated a restructuring, resulting in a thousand layoffs. Disney's ABC is in a legal battle with the FCC. And this past quarter, the parks reported a rare decrease in domestic attendance. Now, going into the weekend, analysts are overwhelmingly bullish on tomorrow.
44:21Ninety four percent have a buy rating on the stock and six percent have holds. Melissa. Julia, thank you. Julia Borson. It is staggering that the Toy Story franchise is 30 years old. But in terms of Disney stock, it's, as Julia points out, not really gone very far from the peaks in 2020. No, look, the stock's stuck in the mud and it trades where you could have probably watched Toy Story, you know, 16 billion in revenue ago. So it's really frustrating. And I think it's nice that there's some some more aggressive change at the top. And I think, you know, again, we've we've talked about Josh. And I think the the sense of where Disney has their assets and their strengths and leveraging off that intellectual property, that makes a ton of sense to me.
45:03The cyclicality of the parks business doesn't scare me. I still think it's got to be about DTC, and they're growing. It's just how profitable it is. Yeah, so as our chief Taylor Swift correspondent, I've got to tell you, I think that's— Oh, you are that person. Yeah, of course. You know, Swiftie. Congratulations. Listen, Disney +, Disney, Pixar, they're leaning into Taylor Swift. They have the Ares tour in there. They have the Ares tour. She's writing a song for this, or she wrote a song for this. She wrote a song for it. It's a great song. So, you know, ride that train, man. Disney's been in a declining trend line since July 2025.
45:34The flywheel are these movies. So it's 30 years ago. Those people are going to see or take their kids to this movie again. It's about parks, rec, entertainment. I think this is a win for Disney. But to your point, it's got to break out of this declining trend line first. Up next, Final Traits.
45:59Final Trait time. Tim. How about that underperforming XLV? I do like the health care story, and I think big pharma is on its move. Courtney. The home builders here, we talked about this earlier with rates maybe not being as high as we hoped, so I think this is something to take a look at. Dan. Yeah, XLE, a little overdone near term. I think you play a fine risk to get to the mid-dice. Steven. I own a lot of very volatile things in my portfolio. This is not one of them. It makes you sleep better at night. I, J, R. Thank you for watching Fast Money. Have a terrific, long weekend. Mad Money with Jim Cramer starts right now.
47:02and our subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Fast Money Disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com forward slash Fast Money Disclaimer. Some say Odoo business management software is like fertilizer because of the way it promotes growth. Some say Odoo is like a magic beanstalk, scaling with you while being magically affordable. And some say Odoo's programs for manufacturing, accounting, and more are like building blocks for creating a custom software suite. But I say Odoo is all of it. Fertilizer Magic Beanstalk Building Blocks for business.
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From the publisher
A full circle moment for markets as crude oil stoops to its lowest levels since the start of the Iran war and average gas prices drop less than $4 a gallon. Can consumers breathe a sigh of relief or will prices bounce back? Then, biotech stocks soaring from new products and blockbuster drugs hitting the market. Senior pharma and biotechnology analyst at UBS Michael Yee breaks down what investors can expect from an upcoming biotech boom. Plus, the Apple and Intel chip design partnership, housing and restaurant stocks leveling up, and could Toy Story 5 be Disney’s only hope after a Mandalorian disappointment?
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