GM Drives Higher… And Opportunities Overseas As The Dollar Falls 1/27/26

19:06And we trust you to make smart decisions. After all, you listen to this show. See terms at discover.com slash credit card.

19:15Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money and Earnings Alert on Texas Instruments. Shares jumping in extended trading despite the chipmaker missing top and bottom line estimates. CNBC's Christina Parts Nevelis has got the latest from the call. Christina. Which actually just ended right now. So Texas Instruments shares, like you said, are just surging about 9 % after hours on significantly stronger than seasonal first quarter guidance. And it's notable because Q1 is typically down due to Chinese New Year. This sequential growth, according to management, isn't coming from higher prices either. So there's three key drivers that I took from the call.

19:44First, industrial, their biggest end market, grew 18 percent year over year with room to run. The CEO called this, in general, one of the, quote, slowest recoveries ever in our history at a time where more semis are used in our life. Second, data center revenue is now 9 percent of total revenue, up 64 percent year over year. That's a dramatic increase. Texas Instrument isn't making the AI chips, but they are making the power management chips that handle data center electrical infrastructure. So they play a role in this build out. And it's now big enough to actually move the numbers. Third, orders improved throughout the quarter, particularly in mobile phones.

20:19Home theaters didn't do well, though. But management is staying pretty cautious. They want to see how sustainable and they use that word on the call, how sustainable this pickup really is, especially after industrial showed signs of life earlier in 2025 and then calmed down throughout the year. But you can see shares and investors really liking this recovery comment. Yep.

20:39Tim Seymour:Christina, thanks. Christina Parts Nevelis. They certainly have been waiting for that analog recovery for quite some time. Guy, it's moving. And you got it.

20:46Melissa Lee:That's exactly what they were. So the quarter wasn't great. I mean, they missed slightly on EPS, missed slightly on revenue. The guide is very good. Although wide, they guided higher clearly. And the 14 % growth in analog, people are saying, you know what, that's a really good sign. Not that there's a problem, but it's a valuation thing. You've got to be comfortable with the valuation it trades at. I think this current price, where's it trading right now? 213. That's huge. That's higher than, I think, the average fact-set price, according to analysts. So we'll see. But I think the move is justified.

21:16Melissa Lee:I don't know how much more legs it has from here because this is right against the prior high, I think.

21:21Tim Seymour:Breaking out the businesses to highlight the data center growth is also a pretty smart thing to do on the part of Texas Instruments to alert investors to the fact that, yes, we are benefiting from AI in some capacity. No, I wonder if this likely gap up tomorrow isn't a selling opportunity. It's a long-term trading range. We've been very constructive on the space. But if you look at the long-term range, there's resistance for Texas around 220. So with that looming, if we see a move up towards that level, it might be an opportunity to take profits. Shares of Corweave, we should note, adding another 10-plus percent today after Deutsche Bank upgraded the AI infrastructure provider to a buy from a neutral, saying the company is in the sweet spot to start booking new business.

22:03Tim Seymour:The analysts also boosting their price target by 40 % to$140 a share. CoreWeave is up 17 % in just two days. Remember, yesterday, NVIDIA announced a$2 billion investment in the company, which sparked that rally in yesterday's session. Do you buy this move higher? Is it durable?

22:20Melissa Lee:It's a tough one. I mean, think about this. Okay, so NVIDIA generates about$60 billion in free cash flow, right? So this is a$4.5 trillion market cap company. They have$60 billion in cash,$10 billion in debt. So for them to throw$2 billion into this ecosystem is probably a pretty easy one. It's kind of funny money. What is CoreWeave going to do with that$2 billion? They're going to buy NVIDIA's products, right? So a lot of this needs to continue to happen, right? This is a very indebted company, CoreWeave. And we've seen what happened when an Oracle has to go to the debt markets, right, to build out their cloud business to actually fulfill the contracts for OpenAI, right?

22:58Melissa Lee:So I guess the point is that NVIDIA is going to continue to do this, and it is to their benefit. And I think that you can criticize the circular nature of this stuff. If it all works, great, have a ball. If it doesn't, we kind of remember what happened with vendor financing going back 25 years ago. And a lot of companies that we thought were really good companies, whether it was Lucent or Nortel or Sun Micro, that were lending their customers money to buy their products went down 95%. Sun Micro Systems went down 95%. It was a$200 billion market cap company at its highs. It sold to Oracle in 2009 for$7 billion.

23:33Melissa Lee:Okay, we're going to have some of this, and some of these companies that have a lot of debt are going to go out of business. But in the meantime, like I said, have at it.

23:41Tim Seymour:SUNW. Remember that? Remember that? Yeah.

23:43Melissa Lee:Last night we had one of the great technicians sitting to my right, the great Carter Worth, and he said that there was more room to the upside in CoreWeave. And we actually said, you know, there's a downtrend from the June high, connect the next level, I think it was in October, and 110-ish is that level. Tonight, we are equally honored to have another great technician. And maybe Katie is looking at a chart and sees the same downtrend that I'm looking at and says, we probably just traded up to it. So we'll see what happens. Yeah, it's right in line, basically. 148, if we see a breakout about this downtrend, could be the next resistance.

24:16So short term, it does look pretty interesting.

24:18Tim Seymour:Yeah. Do you buy into this sort of NVIDIA backstop? I mean, does that improve the CoreWeave story? Apparently it did. But no, I don't. First of all, it's not that much money. Even to CoreWeave, it's not a lot to NVIDIA, but not even to CoreWeave. I guess, you know, it's starting to be sort of a little hyped up again. I would rather, if I may. Yes, you may. I would rather own a little more direct. Where is all of that demand for compute going? It's going to Google and to Amazon and to Microsoft and have the balance sheet and all the cash flow that goes with all of them as opposed to this, you know, finance and build, which is OK.

24:59That's fine. But the risk reward to me seems more compelling elsewhere.

25:02Tim Seymour:All right. There's a lot more fast money to come. Here's what's coming up next. Doubling down on a Whole Foods focus, the supermarket switch from Amazon and the grocery stocks getting cleaned up on aisle 10. Plus, is the greenback weakness creating opportunities abroad, the next move for international investing, and why our next guest says foreign stocks are still trading at a discount? You're watching Fast Money, live from the NASDAQ market site in Times Square. We're back right after this.

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27:33Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. Amazon popping 2.6 percent today as it announced plans to close its physical Amazon Go and Amazon Fresh stores and convert some locations into Whole Foods markets. Traditional grocery stocks like Sprouts, Kroger and Albertsons all seeing outsized losses. Instacart parent Maple Bear down almost 6 percent. Of course, they've been weak versus the likes of a Walmart and grocery. And so beefing up would be a direct threat to some of that business as well as traditional grocery. How do you view it? So, I mean, they're just a juggernaut. They just, I mean, the logistics that they are capable of doing.

28:09Walmart, interestingly, gets a higher multiple than Amazon. I don't know that it should. And so that leaves the rest of Amazon's business trading, I think, pretty cheap. So I own Walmart. I own Amazon. But I think I mostly own it. I mostly own it for AWS.

28:25Tim Seymour:I didn't realize that you could order certain things, fresh things, within 30 minutes. Like, there's, like, a super fast function on Amazon. Like, asparagus? Let's say you're making cupcakes and you ran out of frosting. You need white. You need frosting immediately. Does this happen to you with some frequency? Maybe. Okay.

28:43Melissa Lee:I mean, is that where we are as a society? No, I'm asking a serious question.

28:48Tim Seymour:Yes. I guess that's where we are.

28:49Melissa Lee:I'm not. Let's say Kroger real quick. If you look, and Katie can speak to this, 58 was the prior all-time high in the summer of 2022. We're not there yet. They report in early March they're off cycle. There's going to be an opportunity, I think, just on valuation and prior resistance becomes support to buy KR, assuming it continues to sell off on the back of this. I've got to go to your maple bear. This is a cheap stock, right? If you believe the estimates for this year, basically 30 % EPS growth, 10 % sales growth, 75 % gross margins. And, you know, they have a business that I think is somewhat defensible if those kind of unit economics hold up and they can kind of achieve these margins and this sort of growth.

29:28Melissa Lee:That being said, it's also hard when you're going up against these behemoths that are doing the logistics themselves. Obviously, they're going to be infusing AI, which is going to help logistics a great deal. I'm sure Instacart is doing that, too. But it's hard to see this as a standalone for too much longer if you're trying to compete with the likes of Amazon, Walmart, and Kroger.

29:47Tim Seymour:It feels like it's facing an existential threat to its business, right, because it's just sort of the middleman logistics provider. What chart looks the best? You know, looking at the laggards, I would say that they seem to have more downside, more downside to long-term oversold territory. So looking at Kroger, for one, it's about three months away from any kind of countertrend signal in my work. So I do feel like there's more downside there. And then Amazon kind of looks fine, has regained momentum.

30:12Melissa Lee:We do a PSA here real quick. What do you do for me? What do you get from me every day? I get you two oranges. Yes, and I have the peels to prove it. I sit here and eat them. You hand-select them yourself. I do. And I trust you to do that. Actually, I squeeze many.

30:26Tim Seymour:Don't tell anybody here at the NASDAQ. I squeeze many of them to find the best ones.

30:29Melissa Lee:What's your point, Guy? My point is, you know, I trust you to do that. But if I'm ordering from some, I don't. They're just grabbing whatever. They're just grabbing whatever they can. I don't want that, Dan. That's amazing. One thing that's really interesting about the Maple Bear, they have no debt. $1.8 billion in cash. And that cash flow is really good north of.

30:50Tim Seymour:I think someone should buy it. Oh, that's an interesting thought.

30:53Melissa Lee:Buy that thing. Give me a ring.

30:55Tim Seymour:Coming up, we're going international to find out whether there's still opportunity abroad as the dollar weakens. The names our next guest says are still undervalued when Fast Money returns.

31:07Missed a moment of Fast? Catch us anytime on the go. Follow the Fast Money podcast. We're back right after this.

31:21Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. The S &P jumping four-tenths of a percent to close at a record. The Nasdaq rising nearly a percent, but the drop in UNH pushing the Dow into the red, that index down more than 400 points. Shares of Pinterest dropping nearly 10 percent today. The social media company cutting nearly 800 jobs, about 15 percent of its workforce, also reducing office space as it leans into AI. Pinterest stock down 38 percent in the past two years. And some more after hours movers, tech companies Seagate and F5 topping EPS and revenue estimates and wireless products provider Corvo falling after lowering Q4 earnings and revenue guidance.

31:55Tim Seymour:And Meta inking a six billion dollar deal with Corning for fiber optic cables used in its AI data center. Shares of the glassmaker jumping more than 15 percent on its news. its best day since 2004. The stock hitting an intraday high for the first time since 2000. Dan, you follow this one?

32:13Melissa Lee:By the way, Corning, upstate, not far from Syracuse. Yes, that's true. Okay. I hope they can pull this chart up. This is going back to the max chart here. It literally almost touched its all-time high in 2000. And the reason why it touched it, they got a$6 billion order to fulfill fiber optic cable for Facebook for the next four years. I mean, it's literally a rounding error, and it just shows you, like, this is the sort of headline that would have caused the stock to move 20 percent 25 years ago. I just think it's pretty fascinating stuff here. But this is a company where it just became appreciated how they fit in the whole data center ecosystem.

32:50Melissa Lee:But obviously, I'm not chasing this thing.

32:52Tim Seymour:Meantime, the U.S. dollar index hitting levels last seen in early 2022. and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. President Trump was asked about the recent declines earlier today. Here's what he had to say. I think it's great. I mean, the value of the dollar, look at the business we're doing now. Dollar's doing great. You know, it's very interesting. If you look at China and Japan, I used to fight like hell with them because they always wanted to devalue their yen. You know that? The yen and the yuan. And they'd always want to devalue it. They devalue, devalue, devalue. And I said, not fair that you devalue because it's hard to compete when they devalue.

33:29Tim Seymour:Meanwhile, the dollar's weakness helping stocks overseas, ETFs tracking France, Germany, Japan, all hitting records today, while the Brazil ETF was at nearly four-year highs. For more on investing abroad, Oakmark's David Harrow joins us now. He's the co-CIO of International Equities and manages the Oakmark International ETF. David, great to have you with us. Thank you for the invite today. Happy to be here. This is certainly, the dollar weakness, certainly a tailwind to international investing. But what are some of the other sort of fundamentals going on in other places that make those equities attractive?

34:03Well, you're exactly right. I mean, since it bottomed basically around 2011, 2012, at around the DXY was at about 75. And then it hit a high of about 105, 110 and, you know, 10 years later. Now we're just at 95, 96. So it's just given back maybe the top 10 % of that rise. The strong dollar has been one of the reasons why the international equities as an asset class has underperformed S &P over 7.5, 10, and 15 years. That's not the only reason. The other reason is there's been massive multiple expansion of U.S. stocks and devaluation of foreign stocks. So you've had a double impact causing this underperformance over 10 and 15 years.

34:55Now we're starting to see a turn. You mentioned the dollar, but the earnings growth of these foreign companies is coming through. Of course, not as robust as the U.S., but still. And meanwhile, traditionally, foreign stocks trade at about a 14, 15 percent discount to U.S. stocks when you look at when you're out PEs. Today, we're still at a 25, almost 30 % discount. So you still have undervalued stocks with undervalued currencies, which are just quietly now have risen a bit. But I believe there's a lot more room that this is not normal, that this spread, what we pay for these financial assets is still too large.

35:38So there's still room in the dollar and there's still room in foreign market, foreign stock equity valuation. to revalue.

35:47Tim Seymour:Where are the biggest disconnects in terms of valuation, David, when you take a look at either sectors or geographies? I mean, as you had mentioned, as you alluded to, you know, tech really drew a lot of investors to the United States because of the concentration there. But, you know, in other places, financials or industrials are strong and well represented in overseas indices. Are those valuations still attractive relative to what we're seeing here? Yes, you look at certain stocks, whether they be in the pharma sector, which is a very strong sector located outside the U.S. because the Swiss and the U.K.

36:21have big, strong pharmaceutical companies, AstraZeneca, Roche, Novartis, etc. They're still selling at good values. Consumer discretionary is a space. People used to pay up for the stability of consumer discretionary and consumer staples. Consumer staples in particular, maybe not as much discretionary. These are looking very, very attractively priced. Companies like Danone and Unilever. So there are areas, luxury good. U.S. really doesn't have a luxury good sector. And for the last year or two, primarily because of the weakness of the Chinese consumer, probably a big function of their real estate bubble popping, primarily because of this weakness, Companies like Louis Vuitton and Kiering and Richemont.

37:10Richemont, of course, is Cartier. They have not really sold these kind of valuations when you look at normal earnings in a long time. So these are all things, in our view, that represent good value, and they're all global companies. People don't like to invest in European companies because they see slow growth, bureaucratic, overregulated Europe. All true. But the businesses do business all over the world. If you look at a company like BMW, one-third of their business is Asia, one-third is Europe, one-third is North America. So these are really good global businesses that have their valuations being punished because of where they're being located.

37:50We think it represents great opportunity, especially when you look at a company like BMW, the free cash flow yield well over 10 percent and probably growing 4 or 5 percent. David, it's Karen. Thanks for being on. So we saw from the notes that you think Japan is expensive. Can you talk about how expensive you think it is and what you think about it more broadly? Here is the issue with Japan. As value investors, and at Harris Oakmark, this is what we hang our head on. We're value investors. Value to us is not just the price you pay, but it's a fraction. it. It's what you get for the price you pay.

38:27So if you look at the average return on equity of a Japanese company, quite skinny, 8 % or 9%. Average return on equity of a U.S. company, well into the 20s. European company, in the high teens. So that's kind of a proxy for what you're getting. If you look at their margin structure, return on capital structure, all the same thing. Japan, very low. What about the price you pay? The price you pay for Japanese equities is about 18, 19 times. Not as anywhere near the peak, what we saw in 1989 when it was at 65 or 70 times, five times book value. So the market has derated. But in our view as value investors, who also consider the quality of the business, what we get, it's just not there.

39:14It's really hard to find. I mean, take a company like Kao, kind of the Procter & Gamble of Japan, has 9%, 10 % margins. Procter & Gamble has mid-20s. Rickett Binkheiser has mid-20s. So there's just this disconnect between how corporate Japan is run. And that's not to say we want to buy Japanese stock. We do. We have owned them. And we're overweight in periods of time. But the risk return, what you get for the price you pay just isn't there for a value investor, despite the run it's had, by the way.

39:46Tim Seymour:David, thanks so much for joining us. Really appreciate your time. Thank you very much for inviting me. David Arrow, what do you think about Japan being expensive is interesting.

39:58Melissa Lee:Expensive now, but relative to where it's been, as you pointed out, not so much. And it is expensive. And there are things going on clearly in their bond market and their currency that you have to watch out for. So that could derail the whole thing. I'll say this. You mentioned Brazil. We've been talking about this for quite some time. And energy, materials, financials, you get it all with Brazil at multi-year highs, EWZ. be, that's the place I think you continue to play with.

40:19Tim Seymour:AMNA NAWAZ, Yeah. And you think EM could be a catch-up trade? ANNA NAWAZ, Yeah. Well, within EM, there's been a lot more dispersion than normal. We have seen outperformance from Korea, from Taiwan, but not so much from China technology, like the K-Web ETF, Hang Seng Index. Those have actually lagged over the past few months. And that's where I think there's a point of interest as a potential catch-up trade with both of these sort of benchmarks or proxies for the Hong Kong index and also for China tech, I feel like they have support basically in line and improved momentum near these support levels.

40:54So that's a more interesting setup to me than the more extended areas.

40:58Tim Seymour:Coming up, shares of UnitedHealth falling hard on a rough revenue outlook and Medicare rate concerns. Can this once God-like stop turn things around? We'll get some answers. And don't miss our next CNBC Pro live event, Wealth for Women, financial strategies for women who are investing for themselves and for others. Both Karen and Katie will be there. The event is May 28th here at the Nasdaq Market site. Scan the QR code on your screen or visit cnbcevents.com slash wealthforwomen. Fast Money is back in tune.

41:32Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. shares of UnitedHealthcare sinking almost 20 percent, their worst day since last April. The company giving weak revenue guidance for the year after news last night that the Trump administration proposed holding Medicare Advantage rates basically steady. That news also hitting other insurers hard. Humana, CVS, Centene, and Molina all seeing outsized gains here. Katie, how do the charts look here? Well, it was a pretty rough day, of course, with all these gaps down. And what happened was they came into this news somewhat overbought, too, and near resistance on their charts.

42:04So UNH for one was right up against our cloud model. And same with the IHF ETF, which is the kind of the healthcare providers ETF or proxy for the space. And it looks bad. I mean, we have a short-term breakdown, overbought downturns associated with this gap down, and a lot of room to the next support. So for UNH, we have next support around 250 on the chart, which is still a good amount of room. And for IHF, it's preserved that downtrend, that long-term downtrend defined by the cloud. So it is a setback. Are you in Elevance still? I am not. I'm happy to not. Yeah. Yeah. I don't miss it. I mean, you know, we're still friends, but we're not together anymore.

42:44So but UNH, I think it'll be interesting to see what happens with the Berkshire stake. We won't see the F until, I don't know, May 15th, I guess. But they have five million shares. That's not a small position for them. Maybe it is. We'll see if they buy more or not.

42:59Melissa Lee:The bounce from the July, Katie's looking at this, I'm sure, that 234 low, the 65 % bounce in the stock over the last six months. But if you look long term, it's barely a blip. And that low that we saw last summer seems to be in the crosshairs. Big volume day today, which is encouraging, nine times normal volume, but it doesn't feel like it found a floor yet.

43:20Tim Seymour:All right. Coming up, Bitcoin buy signals what Katie Stockton sees in the crypto charts and why she thinks the token could bounce back after a rough couple of months. It's a technical take on Bitcoin and Fast Money Returns.

43:42Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. Bitcoin prices continue to trade below the$90 ,000 mark. But could there be signs that crypto is about to resume its rally mode? Katie, what do you see? Well, we do have Bitcoin right down into some support on the chart. It's based on our cloud model. So it's a make or break point for Bitcoin and that it needs to hold essentially in line and respond to what are some new short term oversold indications. We've been seeing some backing and filling from the cryptocurrency market more broadly for the past few weeks or even longer than that. That backing and filling represents improved intermediate term momentum.

44:20It's still not positive, of course, but it's less negative. And because that's happened near support, that gives Bitcoin and other altcoins a better chance of rebounding here. And as of the last couple of days, we've started to see these signals arise. They're based on the DeMarc indicators. We have the Bitwise ETF, the BITW, showing one of these signals. And they've been pretty timely, both on the buy side and on the sell side. So we're compelled by these signals, and it's sort of the last chance for Bitcoin to hold this support. The last chance.

44:52Melissa Lee:Well, essentially, I would actually rather play some of these names that went public last year. One of them is Bullish, CEO of the company, friend of the show, Tom Farley, just to be very clear. It's got high short interest. It's very tightly held. Sixty percent of the shares are within three shareholders. So when you think about that, it's below its IPO price. It wouldn't take a lot of, like we were talking about last night, just a little bit of good news. You've got a big short squeeze going in these sorts of things. I'd rather play that that looks like a coiled spring than, let's say, Bitcoin, which seems a little controversial right here.

45:21MicroStrategy now went 160 down from 400. Still, that one I wouldn't play. But I get what you're saying, just for a bounce. I can see it. But I'm long staying long Bitcoin.

45:33Melissa Lee:84 ,000. I mean, that was the law, I think, in November a couple times. The good news is we've tested a couple times in bounce. The bad news is we've tested it a couple times. I mean, it needs to—this is last chance. She's right. This is it. You need to have this above 95 ,000 over the next couple weeks. Otherwise, I think it's a foregoing conclusion that we trade lower.

45:51Tim Seymour:All right. Up next, final trade.

46:05Tim Seymour:It is time for the final trade. Let's go around the horn. Katie Stockson, a fair lead. I'm interested in USO. It's the United States Oil Fund. and it's a play on crude oil prices getting above their 200-day moving average. Great to have you on the desk, Katie. Thank you. Karen? Yes, I always learn something from Katie. That's fun. You know, big earnings tomorrow, meta. I'm going home with the girl that brought me to the dance. Long meta. Stan?

46:32Melissa Lee:Yeah, I always learn something from you. So, yeah, I think things like bullish, I think they're kind of interesting. I think the guy's point about Bitcoin, the good thing is it tested at that level, the bad thing it tested at level. Some of these things get really oversold on the single stock standpoint. So I think something like bullish could be a good trade. Not that anybody particularly cares, but I've been to Brazil twice in my life. Yes, by actually.

46:54Tim Seymour:In Sao Paulo.

46:55Melissa Lee:In Rio. Twice. I can't go back. And we'll share that on the after hours Fast Money. EWZ, though, Mel. Thank you.

47:04Tim Seymour:Thank you for watching Fast Money. See you back here tomorrow at 4 for Closing Bill Overtime. Mad Money with Jim Cramer starts right now. All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet, or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such.

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