Growing AI Warnings… And Opportunities in Private Credit & Real Estate 2/24/26

14:02Dan Nathan:We'll say. But it hasn't happened. And, Danny, historically, if the market equity investors sniff out golds going lower, they will sell the mining stocks hand over fist. And they've sold off a little bit, but nearly as much as the commodity did a couple weeks ago. Gold trade's alive and well, as far as I'm concerned. I don't think retail's really there. I think they do trade the ETFs to a degree. But if you look at the miners themselves, where gold is trading right now, if you were to take$5 ,000 or$5 ,200 gold here, these miners have a long way to go. You could drop to$4 ,000 and they would be earning.

14:34So you are seeing fundamental improvement in the miners. And Vinny has done more work than I have in these names and some of these names. But I think they have a long way to go. So unless gold really goes off of a cliff here, the miners are a great place to be.

14:46Tim Seymour:Is that your highest conviction trade right now? Long gold. Long gold and gold miners for sure.

14:50Melissa Lee:All right, Vinny, you and Porter, you guys are value investors. I hear it all the time. You find places where a lot of people are not playing. It's not sexy. I hear you say that again and again. When you see a workday right now, they guided this year's revenue. The consensus was$10.75 billion. They guided to$10.3 billion. It's down 11%. Here's a stock that has expected double-digit earnings and sales growth, 80 % gross margins. It's trading at 12 times earnings.

15:21Tim Seymour:And it's already down 50 % over the past 12 months. 60 today from the all-time highs.

15:25Melissa Lee:So are you guys starting to poke around on some of these names? I mean, they basically said, all right, we're seeing large deals taking a little longer to close.

15:32Dan Nathan:Oh, we're definitely looking at them. But of course, as value idiots that we are, what you said, 12 times earnings, the first thing I do is that gap or adjusted earnings. And so then I have to X out share based compensation. And then from there, it doesn't look as cheap as they are. But they have come down. It's clearly we have to look. I'm not a software guy, so I have to actually do a lot more work to determine what is the disruption risk to these business models before I actually step in. But for the first time in ages, I've got to look at software companies. I never thought I would ever be able to do that, given where the multiples were.

16:06Dan Nathan:But yes, we are intrigued, but we haven't bit into anything, really. Last few months, people have learned about Exxon Mobil, Chevron, ConocoPhillips. I can rattle off a bunch of OIH names. Energy trade. Same thing, kind of under-followed, under-owned price oil, correlating to the balance sheet of these companies. I think it was a 3 % weighting or less in the S &P when we turned the calendar. It's probably only up to 4 % at this point, or maybe 4.5%. So as money was looking for a home from technology, this was a good place to go. And again, these companies have spent the last five years with the ESG environment fixing their own balance sheets.

16:41You're seeing M &A. I think that's going to continue. And I think those stocks are cheap as well. If you tell me oil is going to stay above$60 here, I would own all of them.

16:49Tim Seymour:So your highest conviction trade right now. Yep.

16:52Dan Nathan:Brazil. I would own the EWZ. Now, hold on a second.

16:55Tim Seymour:Are you going to trot out your Portuguese?

16:59Dan Nathan:It's paltry. I speak Portuguese to the vein, to the bone. I can go, but I don't want to. That's about it, actually. That's not true. Last year at this conference, we asked a question about Brazil. And Brazil, I think, was one of the best performing international ETFs. So the fact that you're building upon that gives me hope. Heavy mining, heavy financials. Correct. Now, keep in mind, they have an election in October. So that is going to be very important. But if Lula loses, then you just really go all in. But now we are definitely intrigued. We love the valuations. It is heavy mining, heavy financial.

17:33Dan Nathan:The easiest way to play that is EWZ. And then from there, you could start doing work on other names.

17:38Tim Seymour:All right. Great to talk to you guys as always. Hold on. Before we go. Yes.

17:41Dan Nathan:The big short panel is historically.

17:44Tim Seymour:Yes.

17:44Dan Nathan:Danny Moses. Right. Vincent Daniel and Porter Collins. What is he on? Some regatta? Parts unknown.

17:52Melissa Lee:No, what does that mean? You know where he is. I know where he is. Where you're getting to is they had to slum it this year because El was not the moderator. Guy Adami was the moderator.

18:01Dan Nathan:He's rowing somewhere. He does so well. I'm waving to Paul.

18:07Tim Seymour:Good to see you guys. You've been on the gold train for a long time. There's no impact from AI.

18:15Dan Nathan:I don't believe. Well, obviously there's not.

18:17Tim Seymour:But, I mean, that goes to the hard assets. You want to invest in hard assets.

18:20Dan Nathan:And it also goes to, and I'll say this before we get out, the market's going to test Kevin Walsh, if the fact it is Kevin Walsh, which it appears to be, in ways that he will be prepared for, but they will. And the gold market is, I think, ground zero for that test.

18:33Tim Seymour:All right. We are getting more on Paramount's raised bid for Warner Brothers Discovery. David Faber's got all the details. He joins us on the Fast Line. David. Hey, Melissa. Yeah, Paramount's made a big step towards its long-term goal here of acquiring Warner Brothers Discovery with the decision of the Warner Brothers board, which we learned about just a short time ago, to determine that the new proposal from Paramount could reasonably be expected to lead to a superior proposal. It's a big step for Paramount, and it puts them in what I would argue is sort of the lead position at this point in terms of, again, their goal of acquiring Warner Brothers Discovery.

19:16They've obviously been on the outs as Netflix has a deal and still does has a deal to acquire the company for$27.75 in cash, that being the studio and stream parts of the company, the remainder of which would be spun off, namely the cable networks under the Netflix deal. But that deal has to be in question now. My understanding, having spoken to people close to the situation, is that, you know, Paramount has answered the questions around certainty that the Warner Brothers board has had throughout this process. And they have done that in a couple of different ways. But most importantly, well, they've raised their$5.8 billion reverse termination fee to$7 billion.

19:58And so if, in fact, there was a regulatory determination that said the deal can't happen,$7 billion now would be going to Warner Brothers. But beyond that and most importantly, the obligation that they now have to contribute additional equity funding to the extent needed, and I'm reading here from the release, to support the solvency certificate required by the lending banks to Paramount, That answers a key concern of the Warner Brothers board with the overall what they called LBO structure here, meaning that if, in fact, Paramount's cable networks were to not perform well and they were to get close to close and say, you know what, we want to back away, or the banks were to say we want to back away, that is no longer a concern because of this willingness to contribute additional equity to make sure that, in fact, Paramount was solvent.

20:50Now, that seems unlikely, but that was a concern of the Warner Brothers board, as was the fact that Warner Brothers' own cable networks, if they, in fact, had significant declines, that Paramount could try and call a material adverse effect. That also is no longer a part of any merger agreement that two companies would sign. So in many ways, they've answered uncertainty. They're at$31 a share in terms of value with a ticking fee that goes up each quarter, starting with, let's call it October 1st of this year. And the pressure now, guys, is on Netflix to see what it's going to do, even though I should point out the matching rights period of four days has yet to begin.

21:30That only begins when it actually has been deemed a superior proposal. So what has to happen between now and then to get to that point? Very little is my understanding, but they do still have to have some more discussions around interim operating agreements and things of that nature before it is deemed superior and that four-day matching rights sets in.

21:53Tim Seymour:David, thanks so much for phoning in with the news. David Faber on the Fast Line for us. In reaction to this news, we are seeing Netflix shares tick higher. They're up by about a percent here, which is not entirely a surprise. But that goes to show how investors don't necessarily want Netflix to do this big deal.

22:09Melissa Lee:Hollywood doesn't want them to do it. Nobody really wants them to do this. And by the way, Goat there, he wasn't dialing it in. You said he dialed in for that. You know, David's about Rushmore. All right. But here's the deal. That stock should be up a lot. If they don't win or they pull, I mean, here's a company. I know a lot of people are worried about their growth, but 20 % expected earnings growth. And Vinny, you know, gap and adjusted. Okay. 13 % expected revenue growth. And this is a company that's been growing margins five years ago. 41 % gross margins. It's back to be 51.5%. I think down 40%.

22:43Melissa Lee:I think you buy this thing even here, whether they get it or not.

22:46Dan Nathan:Best day it's had in a while. I think certainty, regardless of outcome, is beneficial for Netflix's stock.

22:51Tim Seymour:Yeah. Coming up, we've got much more from the iConnections Global Alts Conference in Miami Beach, including the next move for semis as all eyes turn to NVIDIA results tomorrow. What our next guest expects from that report. Plus, the Fast Movers catching our attention today's session. Why Novo's in the red again. The continued crypto crush and how Alphabet to Waymo is expanding its robo-taxi reach. Don't go anywhere. Fast Money Live from Miami Beach is back in two.

23:21Hey, this is Will Arnett, host of Smartless. Smartless is a podcast with myself and Sean Hayes and Jason Bateman, where each week one of us reveals a mystery guest of the other two. We dive deep with guests that you love, like Bill Hader, Selena Gomez, Jennifer Aniston, David Beckham, Kristen Stewart, and tons more. So join us for a genuinely improvised and authentic conversation filled with laughter and newfound knowledge to feed the smartless mind. Listen to Smartless now on the SiriusXM app. Download it today. OnDeck is built to back small businesses like yours. Whether you're buying equipment, expanding your team, or bridging cash flow gaps, OnDeck's loans up to$400 ,000 help make it happen fast.

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24:58Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money live from Miami Beach. AMD popping almost 9 % after inking a massive deal with Meta that could be worth more than$100 billion. This as investors await NVIDIA's Q4 earnings tomorrow after the bell. For more on all of this in the broader AI space, let's bring in first Mark founder and managing partner Rick Heitzman. Rick, great to see you down here. Hey, good to see you on the road. This is Gossam. What are you thinking in terms of NVIDIA tomorrow? I just think that you're seeing an unparalleled need for GPUs, and people are still viewing GPUs and access to GPUs as currency.

25:31So whether that's meta, the other hyperscalers, I think you're not going to see a letting up until something material happens.

25:37Tim Seymour:Is this going to be a catalyst, though, for the stock, which has sort of been stuck? I think the stock's been stuck. It's a matter of how much they have to exceed expectations to really create that catalyst. and I think they're going to exceed expectations. I'm just unsure what the whisper number is.

25:53Melissa Lee:Rick, when you look in your portfolio, and I know a bunch of your names, but like Synthesia is one, and it just raised at a big valuation. Here's a company, it's in the video, Avatars, but they do a ton of really interesting things that just didn't exist three years ago. What are you seeing as far as what are they using? Are they using, like you just said, that the GPOs are currency. Like, are they heavy users of the hyperscalers? They are. They're using both, you know, the Google Cloud. They're using traditional clouds, but they're also building a lot of their own GPUs because they're trying to optimize on that.

26:24And everyone's trying to drive the cost of those down and the efficiency up. So even companies like Synthesia, which is the biggest player in the basically generative AI for video space, is still using a mass amount of compute.

26:38Dan Nathan:I know you were busy doing something else. You didn't hear the conversation we had. But when you hear AMD potentially giving away 20 % of their company in the form of warrants to Facebook, understanding maybe there's a quid pro quo, maybe not, is that concerning at all to you? It is concerning. All these secular commerce deals where I'm promising and no one's really sure how much is a promise, how much is a commitment, when does this happen, how are these options earned, and just the lack of transparency is wildly concerning.

27:06Tim Seymour:That plus private credit's involvement in software and the crush that we're seeing in software because of AI displacement fears. Does all of this sort of come to a head at some point? I mean, how do you view this? I view it going back, and we've talked about it before, like 1999 with the circular commerce. I'm going to loan you money so you can buy my stuff. And we're unsure how those deals work, and there's not a lot of transparency even for public companies. And you saw that Apollo just did the deal with X.AI, backed up by NVIDIA to buy more NVIDIA chips. And that means when this all comes to a halt, this whole cycle bursts and everybody's left holding the bag.

27:44So I think private credit is probably being used to obfuscate a lot of the transparency.

27:48Tim Seymour:So in terms of when you are looking at potential investments now, are you taking a second look at software companies given the markdowns that we've seen in the public market? I think we're fortunately seeing the disruptors of those. So the legacy software companies that have a legacy software base that's doing something very simple. So I think that traditional and workflow software is going to be incredibly disrupted by AI, and it's incredibly expensive to build, maintain, and build additional modules on. The software companies we're back in the day are much more efficient in creating products and have much more sustainable competitive advantages in terms of data network effects and being able to do deeper things with systems of record.

28:29Melissa Lee:All right, Rick, we first met you in 2013. You were talking about Pinterest going public. Do you remember that all the way back then? Consumer Internet is just getting killed in the public market. Of course. Pinterest is below its IPO price from 29. What do you do with these names? Because we look at them every day, and we're like, these are great services still. And I think Pinterest is trading at single-digit times earnings now. And I don't know why people think they're being disrupted by AI. They're actually using AI, and you're seeing what's going on there. I think you're also going to see a next wave of consumer services.

29:00And I think people will be excited about a couple names we've talked about before. in Discord, in the communication and community space, very big, over 200 million uniques, and approaching a billion dollars in revenue, or something in digital health. And I know we've talked about Roe.co before, and their incredible growth.

29:20Tim Seymour:Rick, great to see you. We'll see you back in New York. Wonderful seeing you. Thanks for seeing you. Rick Heitzman, First Mark Capital. You mentioned Pinterest, so there's a lot of babies being thrown out with the bathwater, I would assume.

29:29Melissa Lee:Well, I think the way Rick thinks about it, I mean, like Reddit's a great example. This was a really hot IPO. The stock, I think, doubled very quickly, and it's just been cut in half. And I think, really, for investors, you've got to think these things can happen. We talk about NVIDIA and Netflix and Meta. These stocks went down 70 % from their highs in 21. And really think about what is a bubble because you can sell things when they're acting really well, and you can look for opportunities like we're just talking about in software when they act really poorly.

29:59Tim Seymour:Coming at the private credit crunch as Blue Owls liquidity concerns grip the market. What our next guest thinks about the tumult and the biggest opportunities she thinks are being overlooked by the crowd. That's when he's back from Miami Beach straight ahead.

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31:49Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. Stocks bouncing back after yesterday's sell-off, the Dow, climbing 370 points. The S &P up three-quarters of a percent. And the tech-heavy Nasdaq leading the gains, jumping more than a percent. Shares of Novo Nordisk down nearly three percent today. The company announcing it will cut prices for its Wegovia and Ozempic drugs by about 50 percent starting next year. That after more than 16 percent drop yesterday in disappointing drug trial data. Alphabet's autonomous vehicle company Waymo expanding its services. The robo-taxi service opening to the public in Dallas, Houston, San Antonio and Orlando, bringing way most total 10 cities to total to 10 cities nationwide.

32:26Tim Seymour:And crypto that is still under pressure. Bitcoin hovering around$64 ,000 on pace for its worst month since June of 2022. It's also tracking for a fifth consecutive monthly loss, the longest streak since 2018. And we have some after hours action tell you about HP topping earnings and revenue expectations. Cava and Workday heading in opposite directions after both companies beat top and bottom line estimates. And First Solar dropping after posting disappointing full year revenue guidance. Pick your poison.

32:54Dan Nathan:Well, I'll go to Bitcoin. And Michael Saylor today announced, I think, they're up to 717 ,000 Bitcoin on the balance sheet. An average price is$76 ,200. You see where it's trading now. So, you know, we had sort of posited that the market's going to test it. Well, it did. The fact that it doesn't bounce in a meaningful way should be concerning. And to me, that's going to make itself into some of this tech trade at some point.

33:18Tim Seymour:Coming up, where our next guest isn't letting recent private credit concerns stop her from finding opportunity in the space, the areas she says are being overlooked. More on that when Fast Money returns from Miami Beach.

33:35Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money Live from Miami Beach. private credit and alternative investment management companies rebounding today after fears over Blue Owl rattled the sector over the past week. Our next guest still sees opportunities in the space, Carrie Finley. It joins us now. She's a CEO and CIO of Decorah Capital Management. Carrie, great to have you with us on the show. And I know what you do is different from what Blue Owl does and not in a lot of the same sectors, but what kind of chill does that place on your sector, if any? I mean, I think from a perception perspective, it places a chill, but in reality, We're still seeing demand for borrowing and demand for deals.

34:09Tim Seymour:And we're still seeing investors who like and are interested in the space. You know, Tacora tries to do asset liability matching. And so we offer our investors terms that match the underlying liquidity of our deals. And because of that, we don't expect to have blue owl problems. But, you know, we're just reading the news like everyone else. And it definitely creates a perception issue. What is in your portfolio right now that is sort of, I don't want to say AI proof, but sort of, you know, not shaken by those fears of AI displacement? I mean, right now, insurance. We are seeing a lot of niche off the run insurance deals.

34:47Tim Seymour:Our favorite one is a company called SafePoint. They do insurance deals in kind of hurricane ridden areas. So think the Gulf Coast. and we're seeing them create really low loss ratios. And we, you know, we look at things as a bridge to bankability. So we lent them money before they were bankable. And now they have bank debt that refinanced us out. And we expect them to be able to go public over the next year and show people their underwriting and show them their loss ratios.

35:18Melissa Lee:Carrie, what do you think about when you hear Jamie Dimon say some of their competitors are doing dumb things? And that means on the lending front, right? And I remember seeing this headline maybe a week ago that Bank of America is going to be$25 billion of their own capital looking to invest in private credit or make those sorts of loans. I mean, it really is an interesting bookend. I'm just curious where you kind of see that.

35:38Tim Seymour:I mean, there's always people doing really dumb things. But that's the point.

35:42Melissa Lee:Right here.

35:42Tim Seymour:I mean, you looked at me when you said that. I understand.

35:45Dan Nathan:Okay, that's all right.

35:47Tim Seymour:But we're seeing mega deals on both sides. We're seeing mega deals be incredibly what I would like to call rich, where it's just there's so much demand to put billions of dollars to work because investors are giving mega funds billions of dollars. And so it almost makes them do dumb things. They have to put the money out. They have to put the money out to raise their next fund. It's a kind of feed the beast kind of mentality. And I don't know whether Jamie Dimon doing nothing or Bank of America doing a lot is going to end up being the dumb thing in this case. But we are seeing mega funds have a lot of creep and have a lot of covenants that are a lot looser than they used to be.

36:26Dan Nathan:Love that style creep. We spend a lot of time talking about the Federal Reserve, maybe too much time. Bond market has been pretty tepid recently, not a lot of volatility. How important are interest rates to your business?

36:38Tim Seymour:I mean, interest rates are important to everything, including the growth of the economy. And rates coming down, I think, would make the market think that there's going to be growth in the future. When they think there's growth in the future, people want to borrow. And we want to be able to lend into that. But interest rates are central to everything that we do. What are some of the other areas that you're interested in right now besides insurance? We have a great deal that we've been focused on in the student lending space, helping students get out of debt and debt modification and helping them kind of defer payments and be able to make this sustainable for them.

37:15Tim Seymour:I mean, that's my other favorite space that we're in is, you know, helping people get out of the debt that they, you know, is probably more and more burdensome than they had originally thought. Carrie, great to speak with you. Thank you for coming by. Thank you. To Core Capital.

37:28Dan Nathan:It's great. First time on. She was fantastic. Yeah. We have her back. If she would like to come back. I would love to come back. I shouldn't take anything for granted.

37:39Tim Seymour:It's true. It's true. But, you know, we have to be careful. Private credit is a very big industry.

37:44Melissa Lee:Well, you know, again, I'm going to go back to that panel with Boaz Weinstein. And, you know, he was talking about and, Guy, you talk about this all the time. I mean, like high yield debt has not moved. Like if you look at a lot of these indices and it's not saying what a lot of, you know, some of these other folks are saying about the credit markets right now. And maybe that is the next shoe to drop. But, you know, I mean, you've been talking about it for a while. I mean, it's really tight.

38:06Dan Nathan:Those things don't move until they and I'm not trying to be clever here, but, you know, they don't move until they do. So it's one of those things you got to watch. and when it starts to move, it happens fast.

38:15Tim Seymour:All right. Coming up, a strong start for the year for real estate. But can the sector keep climbing what our next guest sees working in the space and where he's putting money to work right now? Fast Money in Miami Beach is back in two.

38:35Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. Our next guest company is set to deploy more than$1 billion into real estate lending this year. Ben Jackson is Les Group Managing Director, and he says there are several areas of opportunity in this market environment. Ben, great to have you with us. Great to be here. What is the best opportunity right now, in your view? So our real estate business is diverse in the sense that we have specialized investment teams investing across acquisition, credit, and development. And so we like all three of those verticals for different reasons. But in terms of where we're most active and where we see the greatest opportunity over the next two years is our net lease credit business.

39:14And so essentially two years ago, we were fortunate to bring in a great professional from the net lease industry. His name is Joe Yu. Joe eats net lease for breakfast, lunch and dinner. And so he's just a phenomenal 25 year veteran of the net lease industry. He's deployed 10 billion dollars.

39:31Tim Seymour:So what is that? Can you tell? So net lease. Great question. So as you drive down the road and you look down the street, you see franchise concepts, quick service restaurants, oil chain shops, car washes. So in the retail space, these are single tenant properties in which the tenant is generally a franchise concept that signs a long-term triple net lease and so pays rent. The triple net lease means that the tenant's responsible for property tax, insurance, and maintenance. And so as the owner of that property, it's a very low impact. You really don't have to, you collect the rent. That's the main point.

40:07And so we are providing construction financing for the development of these types of properties throughout the country. And so we're very active in the retail space, but also active in industrial and logistic as well. So mission critical manufacturing facilities for sometimes investment grade companies that are building 500 ,000 square of foot properties throughout the U.S.

40:28Dan Nathan:We talk a lot about the housing market on the network, single family, multifamily. Do you go down those roads as well? Absolutely. So outside of net lease, we're also active in the multifamily lending space and single family. And so we're backed by institutional capital in those different verticals on the single family space. So we're originating on a monthly basis, a hundred million dollars per month of something called RTLs. This is residential transition loans. So these are single family fix and flip loans. So someone, you know, there's a developer out there that buys an existing single family property.

41:03It's old, it needs to be updated. They renovate it and then they sell that property. And so we're doing a hundred million dollars per month of those types of originations.

41:12Dan Nathan:And then my follow-up question is, are you able to gauge the health or the lack of health of the housing market based on your business? I can tell you that we look at it in terms of defaults or are we having issues across the portfolio? And right now, it's almost nil. And so we're not seeing any issues in terms of getting repaid on these 18-month senior mortgages for in the fix and flip space at all.

41:38Tim Seymour:How could the administration's proposal to ban institutional investors from owning more than 100 homes, single-family homes, how could that impact your business? I would say most of the borrowers in our space, in the RTL space, are generally owning kind of 30, 40, 50. It could be an impact. I mean, there could certainly be an impact on commercial businesses going out and buying single-family homes. But we haven't totally evaluated that risk yet, but it's something that we're keeping an eye on. Is it concerning to you that the administration wants to, you know that the administration wants to open up the housing market to households, to individuals.

42:17Tim Seymour:And how do you sort of factor that in? Because there's a real desire to do that on the part of the administration. So there's an amazing statistic that really blows my mind, which is today in 2026, we're building the same number of homes as we were in 1960. The population in the United States has doubled and we're still delivering on annual basis more or less the same number of housing units. And so to me, the solution, the answer for affordability is to build more housing in the United States. That's what's needed. Okay. Ben, great to speak with you. Thanks for stopping by. Thanks so much. Ben Jackson.

42:51Dan Nathan:His first time. I know. We have to have Ben back. We're two for two. Sandy booked this well. I mean, kudos to Sandy. Right. Or Kavitha. Maybe it's Kavitha. Kavitha, well done. Yes, she's here as well. I've yelled at her.

43:04Tim Seymour:But in terms of housing, what do you think?

43:06Dan Nathan:You know, in my world, it comes down to the employment picture, right? We spent a lot of time talking about AI. Is AI going to disrupt? Are we going to be at 10 % unemployment, which that piece out yesterday suggested? I mean, that is the crux of this whole thing. As much as it's about interest rates, it's more about the employment picture.

43:22Melissa Lee:You know, there's a lot of jokes that can be made about this. You had Meredith Whitney on a panel earlier today. She said one in five men, I mean, I guess in their 20s, are living in their basements of their parents. I mean, like something like that. Yeah, it's really interesting. I mean, like maybe that is some AI disruption. So I don't know. Maybe the single families become multifamilies.

43:41Tim Seymour:Coming up, the prediction market pop. What investor John Arnold had to say about the betting boom and how the quickly changing landscape for the space is impacting the gaming industry. You got the details in Fast Money Live in Miami Beach. Return.

44:00Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. Prediction markets have seen weekly volumes of over$5 billion early this year. I spoke to hedge fund legend and Arnold Ventures founder John Arnold about the explosion of platforms like CalShane Polymarket and the blurring of the lines between them and sports betting. A lot of the states that legalized sports gambling did so with some with pretty limited guardrails. And many of the legislators who did that are now starting to rethink. But then we had this CFTC decision on prediction markets, which was allowing or saying that that prediction markets could allow sports betting and that that was under CFTC regulation, which then trumps in their mind all the state rules.

44:45And so as states generally had a minimum age of 21, they had a lot of rules on market design and kind of policy design and all that's now kind of swept away. And so there's kind of chaos in these markets today.

45:00Tim Seymour:I think that what we have to remember about John Arnold is that he is a hedge fund legend in terms of energy trading. He is a master risk taker. I mean, his fund Centaurus had north of 100 percent returns, compound annual returns over 10 years. So this is a guy who knows what he's talking about. And he's saying these risks that are being taken, predictions markets, sports gambling, they are not good and they are worth looking into.

45:23Dan Nathan:He's somebody that rarely is out there. The fact that you talk to him is amazing and we can hear from him. And there is a lot of trepidation around it. I saw the interview the other day on Squawk Box where Becky and I think it was Andrew spoke to Tarek from Calci. And a lot of people are very apprehensive. Of course, the problem is you're not going to put that genie back in the bottle. So it's out there. I think the market just has to learn how to adapt to it.

45:45Tim Seymour:Right now, it's frictionless. I mean, that was his point. These vices are frictionless. It's so easy. Get on your phone. One app. You can do a sports bet and you can do a markets bet. So how do you put that grit into, you know?

45:57Melissa Lee:Well, this was interesting also on Squawk and Friends with Andrew. It's Squawk Box. With Andrew, Chris Christie, former governor of New Jersey. And, you know, he is working for, I think, the gaming, some sort of gaming industry. They obviously are not into the sports betting or the sports, you know, prediction markets and event contracts. And it was interesting because he was talking about states are regulating all of the actual sports, you know, FanDuel and that sort of thing. And, you know, like right now, you can do the event contracts in 50 states. So he thinks that there's got to be some sort of level of the playing field there.

46:35Tim Seymour:Up next, Final Trades.

46:46Tim Seymour:Final Trade time, Dan.

46:47Melissa Lee:Yeah, Netflix. I think shareholders would love to see them back out of the field.

46:51Dan Nathan:Mel, we had an on-site crew of about 18 people that were amazing the last couple days. They get a huge shout out. Absolutely. That's how big.

46:58Tim Seymour:All right. Thank you for watching Fast Money.

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47:55Tim Seymour:The simplest part of your business. Visit everpuredata.com to learn more.