In short
Fast Money episode focuses on President Trump’s market moves and their ripple effects across housing, defense, energy, tech, media, banks, and retail trading. Guests/hosts: Tim Seymour, Karen Feinerman, Dan Nathan, and Guy Adami (all CNBC Fast Money desk analysts).
Key claims
Trump would ban large institutional investors from buying more single-family homes (“people live in homes, not corporations”), and target defense contractors—especially Raytheon—by demanding faster investment in plants/equipment and blocking additional stock buybacks/dividends until they “step up.” The show links these affordability/anti-inflation themes to Venezuela oil imports (up to 50 million barrels) to lower U.S. gas prices ahead of 2026 elections.
Notable examples
Raytheon stock selloff; Blackstone discussed as less than ~5% of residential ownership; Valero benefits from heavy sour Venezuelan refining; Warner Bros. Discovery rejects Paramount’s bid and backs Netflix; Dell/Oracle pressured by AI PC demand doubts and memory costs; Wolf Research downgrades JPMorgan/BofA on “too perfect” valuations. Retail segment: Apex FinTech CEO Bill Capuzzi says prediction markets have surged and correlate with equity speculation.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Chapters
Tap a time to open that second in VOMarket Overview and Key Topics
0:02 to 0:22
An overview of the market trends and key topics for discussion tonight.
“Mazda has been named Consumer Reports' safest new car brand.”
Market Overview and Key Topics
1:08 to 1:51
An overview of the market trends and key topics for discussion tonight.
“Shares of real estate investors sinking as President Trump proposes new policies that could upend the industry.”
Trump's Influence on Market Sectors
1:51 to 2:20
Discussion on President Trump's impact on housing and defense sectors.
“On the desk tonight, Tim Seymour, Karen Feinerman, Dan Nathan, and Guy Adami.”
Eamon Javers Report from the White House
2:20 to 4:21
Details from Eamon Javers on Trump's critiques of defense and housing.
“A sharp populist turn from the president of the United States today, as you say, on both defense and housing, hitting both of those sectors today in the market.”
Analyzing Housing Market Policies
4:21 to 6:21
Analysis of Trump's proposals for housing and their implications for investors.
“especially when it comes to targeting Raytheon in particular.”
Inflation and Energy Policy
6:21 to 6:37
Discussion on how energy policies may impact inflation and the housing market.
“So you see that piece of anti-inflation activity.”
Market Reactions and Housing Market Dynamics
6:37 to 8:26
Analysis of market reactions to Trump's statements and the dynamics in housing.
“All of that about affordability going into 26.”
Debating Defense Spending and Market Concerns
8:26 to 12:04
Experts discuss the implications of proposed defense spending increases.
“Also, we're best friends or they were very convenient strategic partners for the government to really push them into that market.”
Bank Stock Performance and Analyst Downgrades
12:04 to 14:01
Discussion on the recent performance of bank stocks and analyst opinions.
“But in a way, if there's more velocity of transaction, it's better for them.”
Bank Stocks and Earnings Predictions
14:01 to 17:45
Discussion on the recent performance of bank stocks and expectations for upcoming earnings.
“After a strong start to the year, bank stocks pulling back today.”
Show all 22 chapters
Tech Stocks Under Pressure
17:46 to 18:22
Exploration of current challenges faced by big tech companies like Oracle and Dell.
“On the Wolf Research, though, their top picks, because we reshuffled the picks, obviously, top picks, Wells Fargo and Morgan Stanley.”
Dell and Oracle's Market Position
19:08 to 23:08
Analysis of Dell and Oracle's market struggles and the implications for their future.
“Is your strategy ready to execute today?”
Streaming Industry Developments
23:09 to 24:10
Updates on Warner Brothers and Paramount's negotiations, and their implications.
“But short of that, I mean, this stock is in sort of dangerous territory.”
Netflix's Strategic Moves
25:07 to 25:37
Discussion on Netflix's evolving strategies and interviews with key executives.
“and we trust you to make smart decisions After all, you listen to this show.”
Netflix's Strategic Moves
25:46 to 28:00
Discussion on Netflix's evolving strategies and interviews with key executives.
“Shares of Paramount Skydams dropping today after Warner Brothers Discovery again rebuffed its takeover bid.”
The Shift in Advertising Strategy
28:00 to 30:56
Explore how a company's pivot towards advertising reflects a broader strategy.
“They've never made a big acquisition before.”
Venezuelan Oil's Impact on Energy Markets
30:56 to 37:52
Discuss the implications of Venezuelan oil imports on U.S. energy markets and refining.
“The Trump administration saying up to 50 million barrels of Venezuelan oil is heading to the United States.”
Retail Investor Trends and Prediction Markets
37:52 to 42:05
Analyze the growing influence of retail investors and prediction markets in trading.
“Retail investors were very busy in 2025 buying dips, going global, moving beyond stocks into alts like the growing prediction markets.”
Celebrating 19 Years of Fast Money
42:05 to 43:09
Reflect on the evolution of retail trading since the show's inception.
“You know, we've been doing the show for a very long time.”
Upcoming Announcement Tease
43:15 to 43:25
A teaser for the winner of the Trader Academ Challenge.
Unveiling the Trader Challenge Winner
43:26 to 45:39
Announcing the winner of the Trader Academ Challenge and discussing performances.
“It is time to unveil the winner of our 2025 Fast Money Acronym Challenge.”
Final Trades and Reflections
45:40 to 46:43
Hosts share their final trades and reflect on the competition.
“I mean, I think we need to do that one more time.”
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:02Mazda has been named Consumer Reports' safest new car brand. It starts with our approach. Every Mazda comes standard with proactive safety features, so you're more aware of what's around you, more focused on the road ahead, and ready before problems ever start. Mazda. More of what matters most to you. Go to mazdausa.com to learn more. Consumer Reports does not endorse or promote any product. At Edward Jones, we believe rich is more than caring about the latest and greatest. It's also taking care of what gives your life meaning. That's why your dedicated financial advisor meets you where you are with personalized financial strategies that help protect what matters so you can preserve your progress while creating a path forward.
0:51The key to being rich is knowing what counts. Let's find your rich together. Edward Jones, member SIPC.
1:02Live from the NASDAQ market site in the heart of New York City's Times Square, This is Fast Money. Here's what's on tap tonight. Property bothers. Shares of real estate investors sinking as President Trump proposes new policies that could upend the industry. The details of the potential impact for the housing market. And it wasn't just housing on the agenda. The president's also taking aim at the defense industry. Pay packages, dividends, and much more. What he had to say and how the stocks reacted. Plus, banks break down after a strong start to the year. We dissect the continued drop in shares of Dell.
1:32And it's time to reveal the 2025 acronym winner. Did Tim's band top the charts? Could Karen's car win by breaking all the rules? And what about guys, too? What about it? What about it? We will find out who gets our illustrious acronym trophy later on this hour. We spent a lot of money on that thing. I'm Melissa Leacone, D. Live from Studio B at the NASDAQ. On the desk tonight, Tim Seymour, Karen Feinerman, Dan Nathan, and Guy Adami. The S &P and Dow both hitting intraday records before pulling back to end the day in the red. Big banks weighing on those indices. We start with President Trump laying down a heavy hand on several key parts of the markets.
2:09In a slew of social media posts this afternoon, he took aim at housing investors as well as defense contractors, causing big reactions in the stocks. Let's get straight to Eamon Javers at the White House with all the details. Eamon. Yeah, Melissa, that's right. A sharp populist turn from the president of the United States today, as you say, on both defense and housing, hitting both of those sectors today in the market. Start with defense. The president very critical of the overall U.S. defense industry. The slow pace, he says, the high prices of some of those companies that are producing military equipment, and particularly just most recently targeting Raytheon in a scathing post, saying they've been one of the least helpful defense contractors out there.
2:47The president saying either Raytheon steps up and starts investing in more upfront investment like plants and equipment, or they will no longer be doing business with the Department of War. Also, if Raytheon wants further business with the United States government, under no circumstances will they be allowed to do any additional stock buybacks where they have spent tens of billions of dollars until they're able to get their act together. Now, Melissa, this echoes the complaint we've heard the president make over the past 48 hours about the slow pace of American defense procurement. He often praises the performance of American military hardware, but he's been lamenting in recent days just how long it takes to produce some of that complicated hardware.
3:28Similarly, we saw this populist turn in the housing market as well today. Here's what the president had to say on social media earlier today. He said, I am immediately taking steps to ban large institutional investors from buying more single-family homes, and I will be calling on Congress to codify it. People live in homes, not corporations. I will discuss this topic, including further housing and affordability proposals and more, in my speech in Davos in two weeks. So, Melissa, I think that's kind of a tease ahead, as we say in TV, to what the president's going to say in Davos. He's talking about more affordability and housing proposals.
4:03I would imagine that between now and that Davos speech, we'll see some more of these ideas start to leak out. And so I think investors had better pay careful attention to the president's social media posts, because I think that's where you're going to see them first. There is so much here to unpack, Eamon. I don't even know where to begin. But in terms of defense companies, there are a couple assumptions being made here, especially when it comes to targeting Raytheon in particular. The assumption that any business done with Raytheon can be switched to another contractor in terms of the products that they buy, the services they procure from Raytheon.
4:35I don't know if it's that easy. I don't know if you know that. And also the assumption that there is a power in the executive branch to say, you cannot do any more dividends or buybacks. Yeah, part of what's happened over the past generation in defense contracting is there's been so much consolidation of all the defense contractors. There aren't that many alternatives, as you say, to turn to here. So the government has lost that sort of competitive pricing advantage that they had years ago when there were many more defense contractors than there are now. That's part of what's been driving some of the cost overruns over time.
5:09But what the president's also concerned about a speed of production, just the simple production and manufacture of the hardware itself. He wants to get assembly lines roaring again. I mean, the president, you know, complains often about the idea that it takes longer to build a new airplane than it did for the United States to win all of World War II. So, you know, that I think is part of this as well. Yeah. On the housing front, though, Amy, this really underscores the White House, the Trump administration's, you know, the drive to address the affordability issue, which is really hurting the Republicans.
5:41Yeah. Yeah. And I think you can see a straight through line with all of the stuff that we've seen, all the activity that we've seen from the White House this week, including the military action in Venezuela, right? The president is convinced that by pumping more oil, you're going to lower gas prices in the United States for Americans. That's going to be an input into the economy and that's going to directly impact inflation ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. The president has long said that energy is the key driver of inflation and the key input in the economy. And so whether or not the oil companies would agree with this, this White House believes that they will be able to pump more oil out of Venezuela over the next year and that will have an impact on U.S.
6:24oil prices over time. So you see that piece of anti-inflation activity. You see the anti-inflation activity in the housing market. And then you see what the president's trying to do to keep costs down in the defense sector as well. All of that about affordability going into 26. Eamon, thank you. Eamon Javers joining us from the White House this evening. There's a lot to trade here. I'm not sure where you want to begin. Guy, take your pick. Defense. And again, I'm not an advisor to the administration. I'll say this. The initial headlines or statements about Raytheons and the bad actors in the defense space came out about 2 o 'clock.
6:59Pull up a chart and look at how all those stocks fell off a cliff. And then subsequently, I think a half hour or so ago, we get an announcement out of the White House, out of the administration or off the president's X account that they want to raise defense spending by 50 percent to go to a trillion from a trillion and a half dollars. And look at the subsequent move. Now, again, this is not nitpicking, but what I would have done, obviously not the president, we are going to increase defense spending by 50%. However, for you bad actors out there, for you just paying back dividends, for you acting slowly, you will not be part of that defense increase.
7:35Lump it all together. Don't let stocks trade the way they did in that 2-hour to 4 p.m. period and then trade the way they're doing in the after hours, because to me, that reeks of some sort of impropriety. The housing stuff, to me, is maybe more interesting just because I think this is really more Main Street and the main economy. Defense spending is often, you know, one-on-one with the government. And I do think defense spending around the world, those budgets are going higher. We just talked about that. So I'm more focused on what can and cannot be done in terms of mandating what real estate and private equity guys and certainly hedge funds can do in terms of buying up mass amounts of the housing market.
8:15Remember, also, institutions were the ones that really bailed out the housing market back in the day. And I'll just say that some of those big institutional and hedge fund private equity, private credit folks are have made a ton of money in the real estate space and they probably deserve it for taking a ton of risk. Also, we're best friends or they were very convenient strategic partners for the government to really push them into that market. So I'm not sure that this is anything more than a headline that is very important in terms of affordability. That's great. It's not something new from any administration.
8:50So I'm not surprised to hear focusing on housing and how you do it is that's the thing. It's one thing to focus on the housing market and try to make affordability a bigger dynamic. But I'm not sure this is the way you do it. Why do you think Blackstone went? Why do you think Blackstone went down so much in particular? So I'm not sure if it's that if they ever wanted to unload part of their portfolio because it's relatively large, that it would be very difficult to do and therefore so prices would be lower. if it's that, okay, this is an ongoing business that they had that no longer can grow because if you can't buy in bulk, they can't buy one house at a time.
9:27I mean, that's just sort of absurd. I get the idea of why you would want to do it, though. But housing, it's not like, you know, when you go to buy a car. There's the same cars all over America, right? You could buy similar cars all over. When you go to buy a house, it is such a specific— It's got to be in this school district. It's got to be near this subway stop. Exactly. And so I don't know in any in all of these given markets and there's millions of them, how much this institutional buyer really moves the needle. I'm not well, I'm not sure. I don't know what the actual number is, but their percentage ownership of the residential housing market is less than five percent.
10:03It's like three percent. OK, so it's not something that is is dominating. I think the pricing dynamics, it is dominating certain cities and certain places. It's more concentrated. All right. This comes back to, you know, Eamon used the term populist a couple of times. Right. in his report. So you've got to figure out what's politics versus policy, right? So you just mentioned if they're less than 5 % of the home buyer or the inventory out there, it's politics, right? And so when you think about it, this administration seems pretty focused on the President Monroe, you know, the Monroe Doctrine.
10:30You remember that from back in school. Well, I think you'd probably take it a little... I don't. What was that? I mean, come on. It was a superheroist sort of thing. Sorry, I'm going to raise my hands. But the irony is, it's like, you know, Teddy Roosevelt, that's the guy I'd focus on. He was like, speak softly and carry a big stick rather than coming out and just tweeting like the world and doing and creating this sort of stuff. And that's not me, guys. OK. But my point is, it's like it's just kind of interesting because it's kind of backwards here. Right. Like he could probably achieve a lot of the policy stuff that you'd like to and then get the benefit on the political front if he just kind of took a different stance about this.
11:05So you can take this in a midterm year and throw a bunch of stuff up against the wall and see what sticks. But at the end of the day, it's going to get a little crowded there on the news front. You got to think that there's probably there's probably bipartisan support for something like this, because it's easy to put a big target on an institution's back. Right. It is big old, big, bad black stone, you know, causing the housing market to go up higher so that you can't get in. That's an easy narrative to sell to the American people. Yes, I 100 percent agree with that. I think it's probably a little overdone in terms of the stock action in the aftermath.
11:36It's to me, the home building stocks, the sell off in those. I'm not exactly sure why that happened. I guess I could figure it out if I thought about it. But I think one of the main reasons is the housing, the homebuilder stocks have not traded particularly well now since the fall of a year and a half or so ago. And that, to me, is problematic. And that doesn't speak to mortgage rates. To me, that speaks to the underlying weakness in the labor market. So why is it that housing, homebuilders went down, do you think? Is it because the price of home is perceived to be too high and go lower? But in a way, if there's more velocity of transaction, it's better for them.
12:11Yes. Yes. But, I mean, we've seen a bunch of different ideas and none of them have been great. I mean, I think the Harris campaign said we're going to give$25 ,000 credit to anyone buying a home. And then, of course, everyone has$25 ,000 to go buy a home and homes go up by$25 ,000. Right. Ish. So, I mean, I get why he wants to do it. He's a master at delivering what he wants to deliver as his, you know, speak to his base. But short of getting the 30-year, I mean, that's the most crucial thing they can do. And it's not in his power. No, not at all. Right. And so it gets back to where you're going to need congressional support.
12:50And this is a bipartisan issue. And he might get it. I'm just not sure if this is really the answer. And it is with some irony that the homebuilders were some of the – really the places where they were eating the cost by – they were actually eating some of the financing costs by getting people to buy these houses. So their margins were going down, which is why they were selling off more. And so it's as if they are now being punished for something they were already trying to help. Look, it's in their best interest to get a form to make the houses as affordable as possible and to sell them. One thing on the defense part.
13:21What has to happen for the budget in defense to go up by 50 percent? You cut health care. How do you get that done? I don't know. What is literally what is the process from here? What is the process? OK. Yeah. Yeah. It's a tariff money. Raise tariffs. Which may have to go back to corporations if there's Supreme Court rules against us. No, but you're saying is it a congressional thing? Right. When does that happen? How often can one make a very significant change to a spend like that? When does that happen? How does it happen? I don't know. I mean, I'm sure we get EJ back. He would probably know.
13:51But deficit spending on defense is going on around the world. And if it's happening in other places that are less defense-friendly in the United States, it can happen here. I'm sure it can. All right. Let's get to banks here. After a strong start to the year, bank stocks pulling back today. Wolf Research downgrading both JPMorgan and Bank of America, saying things look a little too perfect in bank land. Analysts citing valuation concerns for JPMO saying there are risks to B of A's forward estimates. Specifically, they say the tailwinds to NII and interest income for B of A specifically. That's fully baked into the price here.
14:24What do you think? So I don't disagree, right? We were talking Monday on this. I don't like this setup going into into bank earnings, which come out Tuesday for JP Morgan. So I get what he's saying. But, you know, being a long term investor at JP Morgan, if I had tried to sell every time it gets somewhat out of whack or a little overvalued and then hope to buy it back later at a better price, I probably would be left not owning any because it would have gotten away from me so many times. So I understand the it's the rationale. It makes sense to me. But, you know, I'm in this for the longer term and we'll see.
14:58I wouldn't mind if it traded down more in the next week. I think it's interesting when you consider that some of the trends. Well, first of all, Wolf's pointing on a valuation dynamic, and they said it was mostly a multiple re-rating. I would argue that banks have never been more profitable. I would argue that the CAGR in terms of their earnings growth. Look at Citibank that's projected to have a CAGR of about 17 percent. And this is a J.P. Morgan note I looked at earlier before the show just to kind of see where they are versus a Goldman who's, I think, valuation is about as high as it's been, and they're going to grow at around 5%.
15:29The argument here is that banks are more profitable. They're growing at a better rate. They've never been more efficient, and they should be re-rating, is my view. Citi at 1.1 times tangible, 1.3 price to tangible book versus J.P. Morgan's 3.2 is the obvious stock to continue to own, and I am long the name, and I do think it will continue to trade well because of the turnaround that goes on there. I just think investors need to think about should banks be re-rating? And in fact, yes, they should. Also, steeper yield curves are part of this story. Yeah. At what point does the administration come after the banks?
16:03I mean, like, think about it. You can just kind of tick it off one by one a little bit. And, you know, I mean, that's something I don't know if it means anything for the price action. What we just talked about in these other groups, it could just be a one-day thing. It might very well be. I would look more at the investment banks. And we've talked about this a bit over the last few weeks or so. Goldman Sachs up 25 % in about a month and a half or so. What is that discounting, right? Is that discounting SpaceX? Is it discounting Stripe? Is it discounting Anthropics? Is it, you know, OpenAI? I mean, at some point, you think about the market cap they're gaining just to have access to be on these deals.
16:35Obviously, trading is going to be great for these sorts of things. But I think you pulled forward a lot of enthusiasm about something that has not happened yet. I'm with Tim on Citi, though, real quick. They report a week from today. So next Wednesday, we're going to hear from Citi. We're going to hear from the other banks as well. And he did the math for you. And I think of J.P. Morgan's 3233 tangible book. It's reasonable to think that Citi could be half of that or even maybe one turn more, you know, 1718. And we've done this before. That gives you about$150 stock,$160 stock. And I still think that's probably where it's headed.
17:04Yeah, no, I agree with all of that. And then also one other thing, talking about potential efficiency improvement. Right. All of the banks, I really do believe that that is a tailwind along with, I think, lower regulation. Yeah. So I like Citi as well. Mike Mayo, who had an excellent call on Citi last year, still likes Citi. I think it's his number one pick, maybe among the big money center. We are in one of those situations, though, and you talk about this all the time, Karen, where banks have rallied a ton going into earnings. So it's hard to feel great. Citi's got a couple things going on. They've written off their Banamex business.
17:36They have to sell down Russian assets to zero. I mean, there's going to be some sloppy stuff in there, but that's the one place I feel most confident. So I'm short some upside calls just going into earnings. Yeah. On the Wolf Research, though, their top picks, because we reshuffled the picks, obviously, top picks, Wells Fargo and Morgan Stanley. Morgan Stanley, I can get around Wells Fargo, not as much, especially if there's going to be a deterioration in the labor market. That's just me. But Morgan Stanley, I can understand why, you know, they continue to like that name. All right. Coming up, chart trouble for some big tech names.
18:07Warner traders are seeing the moves of Oracle and Dell and where those stocks are heading from here. Plus, another streaming snub, Warner Brothers rejecting Paramount's latest offer and standing by its deal with Netflix. The latest on the media bids and what Netflix's co-CEO sees for the streaming giant. Don't go anywhere. Fast Money's back in two.
18:27This is Fast Money with Melissa Lee right here on CNBC.
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19:42Earning cash back on what you buy every day. And with Discover, you can. Get this. Discover automatically matches all the cash back you've earned at the end of your first year. Seriously, all of it. And we trust you to make smart decisions. After all, you listen to this show. See terms at discover.com slash credit card. Welcome back to Fast Money. Hard start to the year for a few hardware names. Dell down 3 % today. It's third day of losses. An exec casting doubt over demand for AI PCs at CES yesterday. The company also facing headwinds from soaring memory prices. Dell shares have lost over 20 % in three months.
20:20Oracle shares have also been under pressure lately, down more than 30 % in three months. What do you make of this weakness, Dan? Yeah, well, Oracle in particular, the lack of balance after such a devastating last few months or so. The five-year CDS has barely come in, right? So the stock doesn't rally. CDS doesn't come in. It's just telling you how the market is voting on this one and their ability to fulfill those contracts for OpenAI and the funding, obviously. And then on the Dell front, I'll let these guys speak to it, but it's trading at the exact same spot it was last year at this time. And if you think about it, all that pricing dynamics that we've talked about with the storage and the memory and other components, that just squeezes their margins.
20:56So, yes, that's definitely part of it. And I don't see that abating maybe in the short term. I also think they can minimize that somewhat, but not entirely. But I think the bigger part was they did a giant mea culpa in PCs. Like, we blew it. You know, we had a strategy. It was wrong. We blew it. What does that tell you about how the next quarter is going to be on that part of their business? Right? Not good. And so I think that's more of what the move today is. I'm not 100 % sure, but I was more optimistic than I should have been and than the market was about PCs. And so they had the overall PC sales were weaker and Dell lost share.
21:36And this is a big embarrassment for them. And Jeff Clark has been this a while ago already. Jeff Clark moved from the COO role to the CSG. And and now they're getting a new head there. But clearly it didn't go well. So I think we're going to see that reflected in earnings. Is that enough in the price? I'm not sure. Right. But that's what it was today. In terms of the storage, you know, costing a lot more, costing of inputs, et cetera, it doesn't really make that much sense to your point. I mean, most of their sales of PCs are to corporate customers, so they could raise price. Yes, I feel like there's demand.
Read the full transcript
22:12Yeah, exactly. Yes, so I'm not a consumer market. It's 80 percent is to corporations, so they have that sort of pricing power in a way to raise some price because of soaring memory prices. But who is the AI PC intended for? And I don't know if I know the answer. They're saying they blew it. We thought there should was one, though there was interest, and there wasn't. Tim, your point is, though, if Microsoft can't get uptake of Copilot, who the heck needs to buy hardware that has that on the edge? Maybe it's the rhetorical question that I wasn't sure I was asking, but I'm not sure this is a hardware story.
22:43I mean, this is a software story for most consumers. If I have any concerns, it's a couple. I mean, technically, major double top at 165. If you pull up a chart, you'll see exactly what I'm looking at, number one. Number two, there's no real valuation concern here. I mean, it's reasonable. It's been reasonable, yet it doesn't trade particularly well. Then the third thing is they don't report until the end of February. So you've got a lot of time between here and now before there's something, some sort of catalyst that can come out. Now, maybe you'll get some earnings ahead of time that you can do sort of a draw a line to Dell.
23:12But short of that, I mean, this stock is in sort of dangerous territory. Back to Oracle. I mean, I don't know, Dan. The fact that the chart hasn't bounced, I hear you on that. But I think that the chart is stabilized in this one kind of 90 area for a company that's not really pricing in any of this AI build out or this business that they might not fulfill, which the first headline that says that they might not fulfill it doesn't the stock rally. I mean, I just don't think you're paying for it at this point. You might be paying for the credit impact that is yet to happen. There's a lot more fast money to come.
23:44Here's what's coming up next. A streaming love triangle. Warner Brothers Discovery, again, rejecting Paramount's advances. But will a deal with Netflix actually get done? Plus, the next move for the energy sector, as President Trump promises Venezuela will turn over millions of barrels of oil to the U.S. The details on the deal and the potential impact on prices. Next. You're watching Fast Money, live from the NASDAQ market side in Times Square. We're back right after this.
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25:48Welcome back to Fast Money. Shares of Paramount Skydams dropping today after Warner Brothers Discovery again rebuffed its takeover bid. Instead, it still favors the offer from Netflix. Julia Borson's got the details on this show. Oh, come on. Two days in a row. I mean, seriously, why not? That's worthy of a clap. One time this week is great. It's always great to be here. Well, a Warner Brothers Discoveries board said today, quote, Paramount's offer continues to provide insufficient value, including terms such as an extraordinary amount of debt financing that creates risks to close. Our binding agreement with Netflix will offer superior value.
26:24Meanwhile, Netflix responding co-CEOs Ted Sarandos and Greg Peters saying the company supports Warner Brothers commitment to their deal. Now, I recently spoke with Ted Sarandos for our new series, which is premiering tonight, called Leaders Playbook. He talked to me about his strategy around taking risks. Don't be afraid. There is a lot of trial and error in this business. There's a lot of trial and error in all businesses. This particular one is dependent on the taste and the trends of the public. So if you're not kind of being a little bit flexible about what people are going to like, you can find yourself in this habit of just keep doing the same thing until it doesn't work.
27:03You'll hear more from Sarandos and Netflix Chief Content Officer Bella Bajaria about their strategy tonight at 10 p.m. with the premiere of Leaders Playbook. That episode is followed by our episode with Shake Shack founder Danny Meyer and CEO Rob Lynch. Melissa? Guy actually worked for Shake Shack. I did for a day. I'm not sure if you know this. I was employee of the month. I just worked there for a single day. I feel glad for all the other employees. So they were happy. So the 29 days you didn't work there made you the best employee I see. And Julia asked Danny Meyer what he thought about you as an employee.
27:37He said no comment, although you need to tune in to really get the story. I didn't wear a hairnet. Which is a huge violation, but that's a whole other story. In terms of Sarandos, I assume that he was not talking specifically about what was going on. Well, so we actually did this interview before the deal was announced. But what was so interesting about this interview with Sarandos is that this latest deal with Netflix, which is a huge departure from their strategy of building rather than buying. They've never made a big acquisition before. It's just the latest example of that. And I asked him about why after years of saying they weren't going to do ads, they weren't going to do sports, they weren't going to do live, they have done all of those things.
28:11And he explained that he has a strategy of never say never. This idea that you don't do something, but by not doing it, you're also saying we're committed to not doing advertising, but to debate me on it. And it invites internal discussion and debate. And then when it seems like the market has changed and the situation has changed, then never say never. Now we're going to do ads. Now we're going to do sports. And he talks a lot about that in the interview we did for the show. Then they announced this deal. And what they did with this deal is another perfect example of never say never. Yeah, it does seem like they have had a history of where they would pivot on certain things, whether it be pricing pivots or plan pivots and or the advertising.
28:47And they've found success by making that pivot. So you've got to sort of give them the benefit of the doubt when it comes with a deal. I do. The pivot to go into the content business, I thought, no way would that ever work. That was extraordinary. Can I ask a question? Why hasn't Paramount raised the deal? In other words, we've gotten the financing. We've proven that Larry Ellison is behind this, and that's fine, and that's great. It's about saying this is a better offer. I mean, what would it take to just ante it up that much more? Well, I think that's probably what they're discussing right now.
29:18We haven't heard a response from Paramount Skydance since we got this news from Warner Brothers. Discovery and then that that press release from Netflix that followed. They believe that by showing that they had Larry Elson's full committed support, that they were saying we do have a better deal. We do have a better offer. Remember, these deals are not apples and apples, right? They're apples and maybe something else entirely. So the question is whether now they decide to raise that bid. Netflix reports, I think, on the 20th. To me, and if I'm wrong, I'll be the first one to say it. But into earnings, I think you want to be long this stock because this could be a quarter where they say they bring out all the guns and they actually surprise people to the upside.
29:55And we trade it down to the April lows. Valuation for the first time is as reasonable as it's been. I love Netflix and earnings. So this deal is sort of fascinating. It's a Delaware company. So they're in Revlon mode. We talked about that before. They have a duty to take the highest offer, right? And so it seems clear this is the higher offer. Paramount has the higher offer. But they don't have to do it yet. Paramount isn't they're not able to close yet. We'll see how many shares get tendered in. They get what message they get from the market. If they don't get a lot of shares in, that's because people are saying you have to you have to bump.
30:31And then we'll tender it. And then they both go down the path of getting a deal. What's your position right now? I'm long a little still. OK, I'm long. Yeah, I'm long WBD. Yeah, it's going higher, I think. But you know what else is going higher? Leaders Playbook, obviously. Yes. 10 o 'clock. I'm locked in. Yes. Yes, Ted Sarandos, followed by Danny Meyer. Julia, thank you. Thanks so much for having me, Julia Borson. Coming up, the next move for oil prices. The Trump administration saying up to 50 million barrels of Venezuelan oil is heading to the United States. The impact on the energy space and what the Secretary of Energy has to say about all of this.
31:06Fast Money is back in two.
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31:23Welcome back to Fast Money Stocks. Pulling back after touching intraday records early in the session, the Dow dropping 466 points, the S &P Dow 3 tenths of a percent, snapping a three-day winning streak, but the Nasdaq squeezing out a small gain. Some pharma moves today, Merck announcing it closed its acquisition of biotech company Sidara Therapeutics for more than$9 billion, and shares of Eli Lilly jumping more than 4 % in anticipation of a deal to buy Ventix Biosciences for more than a billion dollars, which would add drugs for inflammatory bowel diseases and for Parkinson's to its pipeline.
31:53The deal formally announced after the close. And check out Alphabet passing Apple in market cap for the first time since 2019, making it the second most valuable company in the world behind NVIDIA, both companies just under the$4 trillion market cap level. Meantime, Reuters reporting Chevron is in talks with the White House for an expanded license in Venezuela. That, as the administration negotiates to import up to$2 billion worth of oil from the country. Oil prices settled below$56 a barrel today. Our own Brian Sullivan's been following this developing story. He spoke exclusively with Energy Secretary Chris Wright earlier today.
32:27Brian, what's the latest on this? Well, I would say the one CEO that was not here at the Goldman Energy Conference was Chevron, but they may be at the White House Friday meeting with oil executives. We will wait and see. Either way, let's fast money up what happened today because whatever your thought is on more Venezuelan oil coming to the United States, who's going to process it? What is the mechanics? What are the logistics of how it actually works and who might benefit? Well, you got names like ConocoPhillips and Exxon. They're out of Venezuela. There's a lot of talk about will they go back into Venezuela at some point.
33:02But the market today, guys, reacted with Valero. How come? Well, Venezuelan oil, as all of you very well know, is called heavy sour. It's dense. Who is good at refining? Not the only refiner, but who's good at it, who's big at it, and who's in the Gulf region where that importation may happen? That is Valero. So Valero was a stock on the move today. But we're here at the Goldman Energy Conference. Venezuela obviously was a huge part of the story, but it wasn't the only story. We talked about all kinds of energy, and that included nuclear. And in fact, Goldman Sachs is head of natural resources, stock research, Neil Mehta, not to be mistaken with Mehta, the Facebook company, but Neil Mehta talked to us as well.
33:45And he said he likes the nuclear story, particularly a company that I know a guy named Tim Seymour has talked about. Listen. We love the electrification theme, though. So we are still very much a supporter of a number of stocks that have exposure to it. One example who presented at the conference is Cameco, which... Uranium company. Uranium company, the largest uranium producer in North America. And nuclear is going to be a necessity to meet all of this baseload power needs that data centers are going to provide. So Venezuela, Melissa, was obviously the topic du jour, but it wasn't just about them.
34:27Talked a lot about Uranium Corp., Cameco, some of the nuclear plays as well. I know Tim's got a view on CCJ. I do. Definitely bullish. Definitely bullish. But, Brian, I'm curious about your conversation with Secretary Wright in terms of, you know, how I'm sure he's talked to these oil companies, how willing they are to go in and commit these big dollars when there's so much uncertainty when it comes to what the regime will be, what sort of security there will be, and whether or not they actually want to make these commitments with oil trading where it is. That's right. Right. Those are all good questions, questions that still need to be answered.
35:03So are they willing to go back into Venezuela? I don't know. I can't speak for them. I can tell you this. My reporting says that there is no plan for any new company, Chevron, of course, already there, but no plan for any other American company to go into Venezuela anytime soon. I think, as usual, Melissa, you nailed it, because here's the other thing about investing tens of billions of dollars. You have to do it economically. Crude oil is at 56 bucks. Venezuela is cheap oil, but it's expensive to operate in. It's expensive to refine. It's dangerous. You need security, etc. So when these companies make their analysis, make their final determination, the president can encourage them, cajole, push, prod, whatever word you want to use.
35:46these companies that go to Venezuela, they have to, number one, be concerned about the safety of their employees first, political stability. Can they make money on it? And oh yeah, in three years, maybe we have another administration in the United States, which doesn't feel the same way. And if we go back to the previous administration, then guess what? You're going to see an oil environment that may change and it may not make it as attractive to be in a country like Venezuela. A lot of questions. Maybe we'll get more answers on Friday at the White House. All right. Brian, thank you. Brian Sullivan with some great reporting on this.
36:21So we've been talking about Valera for a while here. And we know in the short term there will be crude, this heavy crude, coming into the U.S. So we do know that there will be short-term beneficiaries, even if we don't know what the long-term path is. Yeah, I mean, they win to that without question. They also win to, we talk about the crack spreads. They buy oil cheap. They sell the products rich. They're winning to that. That valuation, not so much. But Valero, it's not the only game in town, but they're the best game in town. I think we've been steadfast with this. Despite the move, I think analysts will start to play catch up.
36:52I think Valero continues to go higher. Marathon Petroleum is another one with exposure to golf refining, and ConocoPhillips has mentioned. The other part of this is there are the folks north of the border who don't love any of these headlines. So a lot of the Canadian, which is also a similar accrued in something that actually would be better positioned to take in through the Gulf. You started to see some of those trade off over the last couple of names into nuclear. Nuclear, independent of what happens in Venezuela, is something that continues to happen. And back to those that have exposure here, in addition to Cameco, I just think of Constellation Energy.
37:25That Calpine acquisition was as much about nat gas as it was also about nuclear. And I think that's a story that's very interesting and kind of combines all of these trades. Coming up, taking the pulse of the retail trader, We'll talk to one fintech CEO about individual investor trends in the year ahead and how the emergence of the prediction markets is changing the game. More Fast Money right after this.
37:52Welcome back to Fast Money. Retail investors were very busy in 2025 buying dips, going global, moving beyond stocks into alts like the growing prediction markets. For more on emerging trends in the year ahead, Bill Capuzzi joins us here on set. He's CEO of Apex FinTech Solutions, a digital infrastructure provider for the FinTech industry. Bill, great to have you with us. Great to be here. I was reading through the notes. What's interesting is how active individuals are, like, so quickly. When the Venezuelan news broke, you saw the action immediately. Immediately. Not just the active session on Monday, the overnight.
38:26So coming into Monday, now you can trade stocks, equities starting Sunday night. The amount of activity in like Chevron on Sunday night was incredible. 500 ,000 shares, which in a big scheme of things is an incredible amount. But there's an overnight market now. You can trade equities from 8 p.m. until 4 a.m. And so that activity started on that Sunday night, last Sunday night. What is your sense as to the overlap between the people who trade in the prediction markets and the people who actively trade in equities? And I'm wondering this because, you know, in some of the prediction markets, there were heavy odds that Maduro would be ousted before it actually happened.
39:06I'm just wondering if these are the same people. Yeah, there's a correlation for sure. I mean, the speculative, most of the prediction markets today, we have big supporters of Calci. Most of what's happening inside of the prediction markets are in and around speculative trading. Same held on the equity side. So those two things are definitely correlated. And what we're watching is people are using information out of the prediction markets to make decisions in terms of equities. So, Bill, I've never seen a product gain as much steam so quickly as prediction markets. And you just said, you know, CalShield is obviously very early in that, and they're doing partnerships all over the place.
39:44But one of the things that – Including CNBC. Yeah, including CNBC. And, you know, for me, and I've traded options. Your parent company is a massive options trading company, market-making company. When will market makers come into the prediction markets? Because that's something I think will bring it sort of mainstream in a way when you have the sort of liquidity that market makers can provide. I mean, they're there today. So, for sure, there's a lot of activity. When you think about prediction markets, rewind the tape to 2024, there was roughly$100 million per month traded notionally. Today, if we rewind to December, it was$13 billion notionally traded.
40:18So, there's a lot of activity. They are in pockets, though. Calci is one. There's obviously PolyMarkets. Robinhood's doing its thing. There's not one central limit order book. Each one is doing their own thing. A good amount of liquidity in each one of those is coming via market makers, via liquidity providers. Yes, there's matching buyers and sellers because you're using an exchange type of structure to trade them. But there for certain are market makers that are injecting liquidity onto one side of that market. Growth and sophistication of the retail trader is epic. And a billion options contracts traded at Apex last year.
40:55And you would think a lot of those are zero data export. It's not. So speak to what you're seeing in terms of options. Yeah. Rewind the tape to 2021, right? Greatest kind of gold rush for retail investors. Everyone sitting at home, PPP money coming in. Most of what happened, people were buying calls, buying puts, right? Speculative trading of options in 2021. Fast forward to 2025, pretty amazing to watch. It's much more about how to hedge a portfolio, about how to generate yield, premiums, and much less about the speculative. I'm not saying it's not there. So we look at our, over the course of 2025, you mentioned a billion trades that we cleared.
41:3640 % of it was zero DT. So there's certainly quite a bit still speculative trading in and around options. But that number was much higher four years ago. So people are becoming much more sophisticated on how to use tools, retail investors, how to use tools like options to create yield within their portfolio. Bill, we're going to have to leave it there, but it's great to have you come by and tell us what is going on with the retail trader, Bill Capuzzi of Apex. You know, we've been doing the show for a very long time. At the very beginning, 19 years ago, we made it to January, guys. So it's almost 19 years.
42:15This week. We wouldn't talk about the retail trader that much. I mean, the rise has just been astronomical, Karen. Yes. The thing that's to me most astronomical is that the retail trader did not go away after the period you were talking about during the pandemic. Right. When that rise really happened and stuck. That was sort of amazing to me and is growing probably from there. Well, part of that is also post-financial crisis. There was this whole kind of disenfranchised retail investor that felt that the game was rigged. The nice thing about being a retail investor right now is that the playing field has been, I would say, largely leveled in terms of information flow and transparency into pricing.
42:53Those are the two biggest things. And then obviously that translates also into zero-cost trading, which has made it easy to trade. Coming up, the moment you have been waiting for, like for a long time, I'm sure. We will reveal the winner of the 2025 Trader Academ Challenge. Was it Guy's Tube or Karen's Carved or Courtney's Global? We'll spell it out for you. That is next. More Fast Money in two.
43:24Welcome back to Fast Money. It is time to unveil the winner of our 2025 Fast Money Acronym Challenge. So who came out on top? Drum roll, please. The champion is Guy Adelie with his tube. Yeah. 35.6%. You the man. Yeah, thank you. You the man. It was, though, a photo finish. Dan Nathan's Gen AI came in a close second with a 34.4 % gain. And in third place, Karen Fireman's carved at 33.8%. But only one person gets a trophy. Yeah, that's right. Yes. If you're not winning, you're losing. Let me say this, though. You know, I put my pants on one leg at a time. Just like anybody else. Just like anybody else.
44:10But the fact that my tube was able to perform as well as it did for the entire year just speaks to the teamwork that we had. Wow. And the people supporting me. So on behalf of my tube, Melissa, thank you. I like that. Really, I mean, he gave credit to the whole team. You doubled up the S &P 500. And many of these multi-strat hedge funds that charge$2.20, they're like single digits or something like that. Right. Guy Donnie. That's a strong showing. You held firm. And the trophy is spectacular. I think we could put it in between us. I think it was less than 1%. Yeah. It was noticeable. Someone was missing from that top three.
44:46Tim, I think you came in, was it eighth place? I don't know. I really don't know. Eighth place. It was eighth. It was eighth place. Look, was there a nine? 14 % though. 14 % is quite good. 14 %? Quite good. Look. Not as good as the two. No. No, it's okay. This is a humbling sport. And, you know, it's going to be interesting to see how you sort of, how can you build upon your two? Yeah. And we're going to learn about that probably next week. Yes. The traders, by the way, will start unveiling their 2026 acronyms on Monday. Amazing. So you will not want to miss that. Guy, I trust that you'll take home that trophy and display it proudly.
45:26Be careful getting home. Someone might just, like, mug you. Oh, I thought it was going to fall apart is what you were saying. Or that. Yeah. Spelled acronym wrong. I think that's a good way to spell acronym. That works. We know what it means. Of course you would think that. Yeah. Up next, final trades.
45:53Time for the final trade, Timotei. Congratulations, Guy Adami. I mean, I think we need to do that one more time. That really is a hard spell. Yes. You know, yes, tube is number one. There were a couple of components of the band that did OK. The B in band, it's not going to be an acronym next week, but Boeing is performing and it will continue. Karen. Yes. So as we go into bank earnings, this huge bank run, I'm going to be selling some city upside calls. Dan. Yeah. Proctor 180 to 140 in not too long a time here from the beginning of the year. Last year, I think it's getting a little overdone. Mr.
46:29Champion. Yes. I'm just going to bask in the afterglow. Are you going to Disney World? You know what? That's right. You're right. We should have done that. Yeah, next time. Next time. Maybe next year. Get a trade? On Netflix. All right. Thanks for watching. Mad Money starts right now. All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet, or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion.
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Major changes could be coming to the housing and defense sectors. The stocks seeing an impact from President Trump’s latest announcements. Plus, Oil in focus as up to 50 million barrels head to the U.S. from Venezuela. What it could mean for prices at the pump, and what the Secretary of Energy has to say about the moves.
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