In short
Fast Money (4/21/26) covers: (1) U.S.-Iran ceasefire extension and Strait of Hormuz blockade implications for oil, volatility, and global growth; (2) market positioning around earnings and macro risk; (3) company-specific earnings/updates: Intel, United Airlines, UNH, Tesla, Apple leadership transition, Welltower short, Target rally; (4) Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh’s Senate hearing on inflation, rate cuts, and central bank independence.
Guests and backgrounds
Tom Michaud, CEO of KBW (a Stifel company), bank/financials analyst; Jonathan Lidd, founder/CIO of Land and Buildings, activist investor; Steve Leisman (CNBC) reports on Warsh hearing; Phil LeBeau (CNBC) covers United results; Kate Rooney (Bloomberg) reports on Anthropic “mythos” breach.
Key claims/examples
Trump extends ceasefire unilaterally while maintaining blockade; VIX “too low”/complacency; oil from ~$65 to ~$120 then ~$90; banks credit quality “spot on”; KBW favors Citigroup/KeyCorp/Citizens; Intel bullish upgrades cite CPU demand/possible shortages, but EPS down ~90% and valuation “makes zero sense”; United beats but jet fuel up 12.6% and wide EPS guidance; Warsh suggests new inflation framework and independence; Welltower short alleges CEO comp up to ~$3B and valuation ~150% premium to real estate; Anthropic mythos cybersecurity model accessed by unauthorized users; Target rally attributed to inventory control and higher-margin mix.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Chapters
Tap a time to open that second in VOCeasefire Update and Market Reaction
1:46 to 4:55
Discussion on President Trump's ceasefire extension with Iran and its implications.
“We start off with that breaking news in just the last hour.”
Geopolitical Impacts on Markets
4:55 to 7:07
Analyzing how geopolitical tensions affect market dynamics and oil prices.
“Eamon Javers, keeping abreast of all of the developments out of Washington, D.C.”
Market Sentiment and Earnings Season
7:07 to 11:01
Exploring current market sentiment and insights from earnings reports.
“And that is where those AI chips are being manufactured right now.”
Insights from Tom Michaud on Banking Sector
11:01 to 14:00
Tom Michaud shares insights on banking sector health amid macroeconomic uncertainty.
“Yeah, we're going to talk about airlines.”
Financial Services Reset: The Future of Banking
14:00 to 17:11
Explore the exciting changes and valuations in the financial services sector.
“And I think there's a whole reset happening in financial services with the fintechs getting bank charters.”
Intel's Earnings: Bullish Trends and Concerns
17:12 to 19:23
Discuss Intel's recent market performance, analyst upgrades, and potential earnings outcomes.
“And your level's not seen since the turn of the century.”
Analyzing United Airlines Q1 Results
19:24 to 21:34
Examine United Airlines' Q1 performance, jet fuel costs, and market demand.
“This was the great one, and now it's like the one that can't maybe now come to light, but can't.”
Analyzing United Airlines Q1 Results
22:01 to 22:23
Examine United Airlines' Q1 performance, jet fuel costs, and market demand.
“The GLP-1 pill you've been waiting for is now on row.”
Analyzing United Airlines Q1 Results
22:31 to 22:47
Examine United Airlines' Q1 performance, jet fuel costs, and market demand.
“and boxed warning associated with GLP-1s.”
Future Outlook: Market Trends and Predictions
22:48 to 27:22
Discuss upcoming trends for airlines and tech companies in the current market.
“So let me go and run down essentially what we heard from United with the Q1 results that came out after the bell.”
Show all 23 chapters
Future Outlook: Market Trends and Predictions
28:26 to 28:52
Discuss upcoming trends for airlines and tech companies in the current market.
“The GLP-1 pill you've been waiting for is now on Rho.”
Market Update: Stocks and Oil Trends
29:05 to 30:12
Discussing market movements, particularly in stocks like UNH and Tesla ahead of earnings.
“Stocks falling today as oil ticked higher.”
Fed Chair Nominee Kevin Warsh's Senate Hearing
30:12 to 31:53
Exploring Kevin Warsh's hearing, his responses to lawmakers, and implications for the Fed.
“So to the extent that it gets brought up, that's going to be the thing that I will listen to.”
Interesting Exchange: Human Sock Puppet
31:53 to 32:18
Notable moment from the hearing regarding Warsh being called a 'human sock puppet.'
“I mean, he got grilled about his holdings.”
Market Reactions to Warsh's Testimony
32:18 to 33:51
Analyzing market reactions and implications of Warsh's independent stance.
“believe that he is imminently qualified.”
Apple's Leadership Transition and Market Impact
33:51 to 36:23
Discussion about Tim Cook's stepping down and the potential impact on Apple’s stock.
“What Wall Street says about the news and what the chart master sees in the technicals that could lay the foundation for the stock's next move.”
Concerns in the Senior Housing Market
36:23 to 37:40
Examining Welltower's stock and the impact of executive compensation on its valuation.
“It's one of these announcements that we've kind of been expecting for some time.”
Deep Dive: Welltower's Executive Compensation Issues
37:40 to 42:06
Jonathan Lidd explains his short position on Welltower due to its compensation plans.
“Welltower shares had been on a tear over the past year, up 44 percent.”
Market Analysis: Ventas vs. American Health Care
42:06 to 43:20
A comparison of company strategies and performance between Ventas and American health care.
“Ventas, we put two people on the board in 24.”
Anthropic's Mythos AI Model Breach
43:20 to 44:16
Discussion on the breach of Anthropic's new AI model and its implications.
“We've got a developing story on Anthropics' new mythos AI model.”
Concerns Over AI Model Security
44:16 to 45:06
Exploration of potential risks associated with the unauthorized access of the AI model.
“It's being used by those outside of the group that was intended for.”
Target's Stock Performance and Strategy
45:06 to 46:30
Analysis of Target's recent stock performance and strategic management changes.
“Shares trading at their highest level since February 2025.”
Final Trades and Market Predictions
46:30 to 47:03
Hosts share their final trades and predictions for the market.
“There was a lot of hype tonight about my Citibank.”
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:00Tim Seymour:At Edward Jones, we believe rich isn't about having life all figured out. It's opening yourself to all the possibilities. That's why your dedicated financial advisor provides long-term planning built around you, meeting you where you are, and helping you get closer to where you want to be. So no matter where you're starting from, you can move forward with confidence. The key to being rich is knowing what counts. Let's find your rich. Edward Jones, member SIPC. Are you as confident as you should be when it comes to growing your business? Is your strategy ready to execute today? If cash flows aren't where they need to be, growth could be at risk, especially in the eyes of your investors, board members, and the business press.
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1:28Tim Seymour:quietly climbing to more than 52-week highs. How much farther can the T in Timbo run? We'll get some thoughts. Maybe from Timbo himself. I'm Melissa Lee coming to you live from Studio B at the NASDAQ. On the desk tonight, Tim Seymour, Timbo, Carter Worth, Dan Nathan, and Guy Adami. We start off with that breaking news in just the last hour. President Trump saying the U.S. will extend the ceasefire with Iran until the country's leaders submit a new peace proposal. Our Eamon Javers is at the White House with the very latest on the Middle East. Eamon.
2:00Melissa Lee:Yeah, Melissa, it's been a busy afternoon here at the White House. We've had basically hot and cold running motorcades over here on West Executive Drive. A lot of activity, not a lot of communication from the White House throughout the course of the afternoon. But then we got this social media post from the president. You just referenced it. He said, we have been asked to hold our attack on the country of Iran until such time as their leaders and representatives can come up with a unified proposal. I have therefore directed our military to continue the blockade and in all other respects remain ready and able and will therefore extend the ceasefire until such time as their proposal is submitted and discussions are concluded one way or the other.
2:39Melissa Lee:So, Melissa, generally speaking, a ceasefire is an agreement between two parties to stop firing. What we have here is a unilateral extension of that ceasefire. No indication from the Iranians that they are going to participate in a ceasefire. We'll see how they react just before we saw the president's post on social media. We did have a statement from Iranian social media saying that they would not participate in talks in Islamabad. There have been a lot of question about that over the past 24 hours. Vice President J.D. Vance was apparently at one point ready to get on a plane to go to Pakistan to conduct those talks.
3:14Melissa Lee:But the Iranian side never signaled their participation. And then finally today said they wouldn't participate at all. And so now the question is, how long does this unilateral ceasefire last? Can it really hold if the Iranians don't agree to it? And what is the president talking about here when he talks about this idea of another proposal expected from the Iranian side? Is there a document incoming from the Iranian side that the U.S. is expecting that might lay out some terms of the negotiation? The Iranians have said today that they won't negotiate in a situation where there are threats and threat of force, and they won't negotiate in a situation where there's a blockade.
3:53Melissa Lee:The president has said he's going to maintain the blockade. So that leaves you with an open question about how all this can get resolved, Melissa.
4:01Tim Seymour:And, of course, there is the element of what the president said this morning on Squawk Box about resuming bombing of Iran to throw into the mix.
4:09Melissa Lee:Yeah, he said he expected to resume bombing of Iran. But that was this morning, and this is now. And now he's saying, no, he's going to extend this unilateral ceasefire. So that seems to be an indication. Now, if you want to sort of read the nuance here, maybe this is the president going halfway toward what the Iranians were saying. They said, we won't negotiate in a situation where we're under the threat of force. Well, the president has just unilaterally extended the ceasefire. So maybe that extension creates room now for the Iranians to come to the table. He didn't go all the way because they also said they don't want the blockade to be in place.
4:47Melissa Lee:He says that will remain. But it is movement toward the Iranian position, if you look at it that way, from the president.
4:54Tim Seymour:Right. Eamon, thank you. Eamon Javers, keeping abreast of all of the developments out of Washington, D.C. What is clear, though, is that the strait will remain blocked. And from the market standpoint, that is probably the most consequential outcome of this. he said, she said geopolitical drama that we're in right now.
5:11Karen Finerman:And if you look at the VIX and if you look at measures of risk, I mean, the market's certainly not pricing in that we're out of this. But I think the market is also not really pricing at ceasefire. And in fact, I think we're at levels in terms of volatility measurement. And this is a very broad measurement and there's different ways to measure it. But I do think that the view is that there's a lot of complacency here every day that goes on, what you hear oil traders talk about is seeing less demand, the dynamic of what is truly happening below the surface, what's going on in terms of commodity prices that are a byproduct of oil products.
5:47Karen Finerman:So it's to me a situation back to where the markets are. Again, you're talking about an almost 17 percent move in the Nasdaq and outperformance also over the S &P, a sign that you should be reaching out and grabbing growth. No, I mean, And a lot hasn't been agreed upon. Israel, Lebanon, still kind of a tinderbox. And I do think oil prices remain high. Dan?
6:09Melissa Lee:Yeah. I mean, listen, the blockade of the blockade is probably doing more damage to our allies and those in Asia in particular, right? And so to Tim's point about lack of demand that you're seeing on oil, just wait if you can't get some of these byproducts to Asia that make or help make semiconductors. If you think a bottleneck in oil in the Strait of Hormuz where 20 percent of the daily oil is supposed to flow through there, if you don't have these chips being made and they are not being shipped around the world, then all that CapEx that's driving so much growth here in the U.S. is going to slow down.
6:41Melissa Lee:I mean, they're going to have to slow down, right? If you can't get the chips that go into the servers, that go into the data centers, that train the models. And that's the reason why they're raising all this money. And it's supposedly creating a whole heck of a lot of productivity, but also activity, economic activity. That could be a problem. And that's how you can say that we're energy independent. But if that comes back to hurt us in a prolonged sort of blockade without a ceasefire, then you do see a material global growth scare.
7:07Tim Seymour:Taiwan is not energy independent. South Korea is not energy independent. And that is where those AI chips are being manufactured right now. The president is going to be in China, I think, a month or so from now. I mean, does Taiwan become sort of a pawn or a chip in this whole game? You know, I'm not sure that technicals mattered for the S &P, but I'll throw it out there. It's great having Carter on. Today, new all-time high in the S &P 500 early in the day, closed on the lows. Technically, we have what we call an outside day. Obviously, today's high higher than yesterday's high, but we closed lower than yesterday's low, which theoretically should mean something.
7:42Tim's point about the VIX is well taken. I think the VIX is too low here, but it's been creeping higher over the last week or so. So, again, if technicals matter, if this whatever salvo happened in the aftermarket isn't market moving, then today could be one of those days we look back upon. I mean, we've recovered to a former high. And in principle, you it's hard to move through that. So backing and filling here perfectly normal. But crude is really the story to go from 65 to 120 and then to pull back to essentially 90. It's a 50 percent retracement and it's just stuck here, meaning this is the proper price in the market.
8:15There are all these it's going to 200. It's going to 250. It hasn't happened. It's going to go back to 60. We've surged from 65 to 120. We've fallen to 90 plus minus. And I think we just sit here. Crude is an instance where you bet against volatility.
8:30Tim Seymour:We sit here, though, and this is still too high. I mean, a lot of the analysts out there are forecasting, you know, if oil stays for the U.S., WTI, if oil stays between$70 and$80 a barrel over the foreseeable future, then the markets can handle it. We're fine. But if this is, in fact, if your chart work is where it's at, Carter, and 90 is it, that's bad news. Well, it's not going to stay forever as this gets resolved at some point. But, I mean, just remember this, the crude oil adjusted for inflation, the same level was in 1984, right? So crude costs as an input to all manufacturing is much lower than it was.
9:0290 is high, but it's not what it could be.
9:05Karen Finerman:Look, I know the U.S. consumer runs the world, but we had retail sales numbers that showed that the U.S. consumer is fine. We've done our fresh math calculations in terms of how much gasoline is the overall spend. And we know it's not really it's it's a big deal, but it's not that which is going to push us into recession overnight. I do think, though, we are underestimating the knock on effects and the demand dynamics. And I think whether whether it's the tech world or whether it's the industrial world, I think we are seeing demand destruction right now. And I think this can't go on as it is right now.
9:36Melissa Lee:Yeah. Industrial world. I mean, you guys saw GE, right? And you saw it fill in that entire gap going back from two weeks on the guidance that they gave. And, you know, I think industrials in general and those exposed to defense, you know, this has been a story that should be working. And those stocks had not been working, actually, since the war had started. And when you see this sort of activity in a group like industrials, I think it's got to get your antennas up a little bit. So we spent a lot of time talking about tech. But there's some other things going on in the market where I think maybe we're a bit too complacent watching stocks like Caterpillar.
10:06Melissa Lee:Obviously, they don't have any exposure, right, to defense. But some of these names just go. Yeah, and they just, they look like they cure cancer. They look like they kind of sell into data centers, that sort of thing. And that's not particularly normal, I think, at this stage in the market.
10:20Tim Seymour:But, I mean, okay, so what do UNH, GE Aerospace, 3M, Northrop Grumman have in common? This is a rhetorical question because if it's an SAT question. Okay, they all beat. Yeah. And they reiterated their full year guidance. So they did not raise their full year guidance by as much as they beat. So earning season is great. Earning season is great. But the outlook is so cloudy. Yeah, and I think my instinct suggests the market might give companies a pass, given the murkiness that we find ourselves in. But your point is well taken. Beat and raise has been the thing. Beat and basically in-line guidance.
10:57I'm not certain that's going to be an environment that is sustainable. It's sustainable now, given the uncertainty. Long term, not so much.
11:03Karen Finerman:Yeah, we're going to talk about airlines. And I'll just say this. I mean, UNH beat and essentially hitting guidance or estimates is a very UNH story. That is a reason why you'd be rallying UNH, not necessarily some of the other industrial names. And agree, I'm not sure Caterpillar is supposed to be making fresh eyes here. Right.
11:21Tim Seymour:For more on how macro risks are impacting markets and the banking sector in particular, let's bring in Tom Michaud. He's the CEO of KBW, a Stiefel company. Tom, great to have you with us. It's always great to get your insights. We've pretty much gotten through bank earnings season. And we've gotten a very good message from bank CEOs in terms of the health of the economy and the health of the consumer. As one yourself, what is the asterisk as we sit here and there is more uncertainty about the war and where the ceasefire talks are going? Well, first of all, I would like to reiterate what you just said, which is the quarter was very, very good.
11:54It was fantastic, actually. And really, if you're talking about all these macro risks, you immediately want to go look at credit quality. Credit quality was spot on excellent in the quarter. There have been no big headlines that have happened so far. And so credit quality is good. And it's really pretty much everywhere, including the consumer. The credit card companies all produced earnings in line or a little bit better, both in terms of delinquencies as well as usage of the cards. So the feeling is whatever the risks are, they weren't in the numbers on March 31st. That's for sure. And the banking industry had a very good quarter.
12:29Tim Seymour:So you're feeling good despite this uncertainty. Every headline is we don't know how long this is going to. We can study and control and whatever impacts the banking industry. I mean, whatever happens in the macro side, it won't be just the banks. It'll be everything you were just talking about. So so look, the economy matters. If you had said to me eight weeks ago, what are things I might worry about that could go wrong? One hundred dollar oil in a military conflict in the Middle East would have been on the list. But to date, the resilience has been remarkable, both in the markets and in the economy.
13:04And really, there's nothing we're hearing from the banks that are telling us. Even private credit has all been, I think, the credit quality and private credit's been perfectly fine in the first quarter. Yeah, I know, Tom, before the show we were talking, just the power, the importance of passive investing, which is something that you see. I mean, that's great on the way up. Everything gets sort of raised up. But when passive becomes active, it's never active going up. It's active going down. Is there anything on Horizon that suggests going to precipice of something like that? We can't see it. And we also think that the headlines that are happening out of the macro issues out of the Middle East are causing some other really big things not to be in the front page.
13:46For example, there's a massive regulatory reset happening right now. And I think what's happening in private credit is not a credit story. I think it's a growth story. There's no way, in my opinion, the next five years, I think growth will be like it's been in the last five years for this sector. And I think there's a whole reset happening in financial services with the fintechs getting bank charters. And I think what the financial services sector looks like in five or 10 years is actually really exciting. And there's a lot happening every day in that sector.
14:17Karen Finerman:And I'm excited. And I think excitement, it translates into higher multiples and deserved higher multiples. I mean, deregulation and that tailwind. And I guess I would ask specifically because I get pushed back when I say this. I think European banks have a better tailwind from deregulation than U.S. banks because of where they're coming from. And I own a lot of European banks in my. I'll tell you, our analyst is making a very solo call at the moment. We were nervous that the U.K. budget gap is going to be cut by taxing the banks more. So we're out with actually a cautious call in the U.K. banks.
14:52Generally, I would agree until I read that note this week, by the way, from our firm.
14:56Karen Finerman:How about valuations, though, for the sector? Because, again, we've had a 20 percent move off the lows back in the old days. So, you know, so we were talking earlier about the market. And so the stock market's at an all-time high, essentially, in most of the indices. There are a lot of banks out there. One of our favorite ideas is Citigroup. Trades around 130 of tangible book value. The stock trades at a very low P.E. multiple, let's say around 10 times. They're having an analyst meeting on May 7th. We think they're going to change their guidance for their profitability target. And I'll tell you, there's a theme that's happening in the banks right now is the return on tangible capital is driving an outcome on price to tangible book.
15:37And our three favorite stocks at this moment are Citigroup, Keycorp and Citizens Financial. We think those three banks have very steady, predictable improvement and profitability stories. The stocks, in some cases, even still have big dividend yields. They trade at good valuations relative to the book and good valuations on a P.E. So if you do get a market sell off, it's not like these things are in rarefied air from a valuation perspective.
16:03Tim Seymour:Tom, it's also always great to see you. Thanks for stopping by. Great to be with you. Thank you. Of KBW. By the way, Steve has done a great job as well. And Tom's great to have him. Glad he brought up Citi. We've been talking about that in a similar vein. And, you know, Jane Frazier has done a great job. And if the metrics on the 7th are better than the street was looking for, if they can sort of approach where JP Morgan is on the metrics he mentioned, then one and a half times price the tangible book might actually be too cheap for letter C. I mean, C is the best looking bank, right? It's the only one that didn't violate its 150 day.
16:33It's always the sort of it's a troubled bank. It's cheap, maybe cheap for a reason. But in terms of the banks overall, it's important to say that the BKX index is beating the market on a one and two year basis. But on a five and 10 year basis, it's trailing by almost 50 percent. So either that's a catch up opportunity or it's what value traps really are, that they're cyclical, they're dangerous if things get dangerous. Right. That's the nature of lending. And my hunch is it's an equal weight. I don't think that banks as an investment could be held long term. They're trading vehicles.
17:07Tim Seymour:Let's turn now to Intel, the chipmaker, going warp speed into Thursday afternoon's earnings trading. And your level's not seen since the turn of the century. And only now are analysts jumping on board. This morning, HSBC upgrading Intel to a buy from a hold, sloughing a new street-high$95 price target on the chipmaker. RBC also saying CPU demand should set up a beaten race scenario, while BNP Paribas upgraded the stock to a neutral from underperformed yesterday. So why all this bullishness now after Intel's Torrid run and before earnings? What do you think? Is this too much ahead of earnings?
17:42Melissa Lee:I think we've seen this over the last year, you know, this kind of rolling bullishness in different parts of the kind of server AI, you know, infrastructure. And, you know, we just have spent a lot of time talking over the last six to nine months about memory. And so the CPU story was one that really started to kind of take hold, you know, I want to say six months ago, maybe nine months ago, when NVIDIA took an investment. This is right after the government did in Intel. I think a lot of us thought that was a bit curious. But when we've kind of seen this, you know, story about custom silicon, and now we're seeing CPU and clusters there for inference, I guess the demand story finally is catching up to the product that Intel makes.
18:20Melissa Lee:And so, but you tell me, 70 % in a month? I mean, I think it's discounting a lot of good news here. I mean, it's not, you've got to go back a very long time to remember Intel trading like this.
Read the full transcript
18:29Tim Seymour:These analysts, though, are putting forth the S word when it comes to the story shortage. Shortage has driven Western Dig and Seagate to new highs in today's session. I mean, that is the key here to the ones that have been able to sustain their runs. Now they're saying CPUs will be in shortage.
18:45Karen Finerman:And I think that's probably right. But I mean, talk about shortages. How about supply chain? How about production for them? They can't ramp up production right now. I think they're in a really difficult position. Let's not forget this is going to be EPS is going to be down 90 percent on an adjusted basis. And you're going to see revenues down on the quarter sequentially. So I think the S is strategic. I think this is people feel like this is, you know, chip USA. And there's a lot of people that want to get behind this company. And I get it. And I think it's probably in the best interest of this country.
19:14Karen Finerman:But the valuation makes zero sense. I think it's going to be disappointing. I mean, a hell of a bounce, as they say. The question is, I mean, it's still below its dot-com peak, which means here, too, adjusted for inflation-like oil. The thing's still down 60%, 70%. Why, right? This was the great one, and now it's like the one that can't maybe now come to light, but can't. This dog won't hunt. My hunch is you fade it. Dog won't hunt. I love that.
19:39Tim Seymour:And here, too. Carter's the only man on this network who can use here, too. Yeah, and he does it extraordinarily well. So not that anybody seemingly cares about valuations, but Intel's about three times the price to earnings of NVIDIA and less than half of the gross margins of NVIDIA. So you explain to me, and listen, maybe they have figured it out, but it's all about data center, in my opinion, and they have not seen it, at least over the last couple quarters, a meaningful acceleration yet. Look at how the forward PEs compare. Yeah, it's coming off a low base, obviously,
20:09Melissa Lee:because they were losing money not too long ago.
20:12Karen Finerman:Well, the cheaper NVIDIA gets, we sell it, And the more expensive Intel gets, we buy it. It's like a commodity company.
20:18Melissa Lee:Well, you guys know what happens to dogs that don't hunt, don't you? What happens? Uh-oh. Not good. Uh-oh. No? Not good. You have a dog that's the size of a raccoon? I read Chrissy Jones book. Does that hunt that dog?
20:29Tim Seymour:I mean, not good. We got to go. Not good. Coming up, we are watching United Airlines on the move after reporting the details and numbers of the latest quarter. That is next, plus the jump in UNH after its own earnings. The traders take on Tesla ahead of results tomorrow. and the chart master slices into Apple's technicals in the back of last night's big news. What he sees in store for the tech giant in its post-Tim Cook era. Do not go anywhere. Fast Money's back in two.
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22:35Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. United Airlines shares are higher, just under a percent here, despite beating top and bottom line estimates for the first quarter. CNBC's Phil LeBeau has got the details here. Hey, Phil. Hey, Melissa, this is all about jet fuel costs, not just for United, but for all the airlines. So let me go and run down essentially what we heard from United with the Q1 results that came out after the bell. As you mentioned, they did beat on the top and the bottom line. Look at the fuel costs, up 12.6 percent, basically$340 million more in jet fuel costs compared to the first quarter of last year.
23:09Pre-tax margin came in at 3.4 percent. The demand side is what so many people are questioning. Are people still booking trips? Well, in the first quarter, it didn't slow down at all. Look at the revenue in terms of each of the classifications for the tickets that United sells, Whether it's domestic, international, premium, corporate, they were all up double digits. So there's still demand there, and they are not seeing it slow down. None of the airlines are, even though they have raised fares along with jet fuel prices. As you take a look at shares of United, a couple of things to keep in mind.
23:44They are making their second half capacity come in flat to up 2 % versus plan. You might on a normal year, you would see that be higher than flat to up 2 percent. But this is the prudent move to do in in relationship to you're not really sure what's going to happen with jet fuel prices. You want to limit capacity growth. Q2 EPS guide of a buck to two bucks a share. The street right now is at 208. I wouldn't put a lot into that. The street estimates have been coming down dramatically and they're all over the place. And then the EPS guide for full year earnings between$7 and$11 a share. Previously, they were at$12 to$14.
24:23So, yes, they have brought it in a little bit. But that wide, look, between$7 and$11, they're not entirely sure what to expect from JetFuel, aside from the fact that it will be higher for longer. So that's why you have a wide guidance there. Don't forget, tomorrow morning, Melissa, we're going to be talking with United CEO Scott Kirby first on CNBC. We'll talk about the Q1 results. And yes, we will talk about his suggestion to the White House, which the president today on Squawk Box said is not, in his opinion, a good idea. The idea of perhaps United buying American.
24:57Tim Seymour:Phil, thank you. Phil LeBeau. What was interesting was in the numbers first cross, the stock took a dip lower and now they're sort of firming up around up one percent here. What's your take on on the results?
25:07Karen Finerman:Well, the guidance, the cut on EPS was was shocking. Right. Except for the fact that it wasn't really shocking. And what's interesting is that airlines, the stocks responded more on the fear of what your jet fuel prices would do. One of the things they said is that they will recover most of the price increases in jet fuel by the third quarter if they can extract 70 to 80 percent of that cost. It means pass it on. And let's see what that means to demand. But I just think this also juxtaposes to Delta and Delta, who talked about the trainer refinery adding, you know, 15 percent or 20 percent ultimately of their fuel and how they can be more resilient.
25:47Karen Finerman:I think it's never been a time to look at the highest quality airlines. United is one. But, you know, I think Delta is a higher quality play.
25:55Tim Seymour:And so far, the higher margin seats, they're they're doing well. I mean, in terms of growth year on year premium seats, for instance, up double digits. And they're going to rate, to Tim's point, 70, 80 percent of the recovery of fuel costs are going to come into form of fares by the third quarter. So buckle up. No pun intended. The other thing that I took away from it, by 2028, they're going to take another 250 new planes at United, which is fantastic. Because I've been on some of those planes. And not that it bothers me, but a little bit.
26:22Karen Finerman:You ever sneak through a flight without your buckle on? No, Tim, I don't do that. Just don't buckle up. You know why? Because I'm being safe for the other flyers as well. I'll be on a plane tomorrow in case anybody cares. No, I get in my—I put my ass in the chair. Whoa, whoa, whoa. Family show. I sit down. I put my seatbelt on. I stare straight ahead. And you wear a tie. And I will be—and I don't move. Yeah. And apparently that's called something. The middle seat, the aisle seat. Wherever seat I'm in, Carter, I'm happy. And it's called raw dogging. I don't know what it's called. It's crazy.
26:51Tim Seymour:All right. There's a lot more Fast Money to come. Here's what's coming up next. Warsh in the hot seat. The Fed chair nominee faces questions on Capitol Hill, what he had to say about inflation, potential rate cuts, and central bank independence. Plus, the future of Apple as Tim Cook gets ready to hand over the reins with the Sharkmaster season store for the stock after yesterday's surprise announcement. You're watching Fast Money live from the NASDAQ market side in Times Square. We're back right after this.
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29:04Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. Stocks falling today as oil ticked higher. The Dow falling nearly 300 points. The S &P and Nasdaq both dropping more than a half a percent. WTI crude selling above$92 a barrel. Shares of UNH jumping nearly 7 percent after topping earnings and revenue estimates this morning. The insurer also hiking its 2026 profit outlook as a company better manages high medical costs and streamlines its operations. Today's move, erasing the stock losses for the year. And Tesla lower ahead of its earnings report tomorrow. Investors watching for more information on the cyber cap timeline.
29:37Tim Seymour:Insight into its Austin TerraFab facility and A15 chips, as well as signs of stabilization in automotive margins. Annual revenue fell last year for the first time ever. Tesla stock down more than 14 percent so far this year. What will we be watching for? Tesla? Yes. Margins, auto margins. I mean, they promised us better. They promised us a reacceleration of margins, I think, a year and a half, two years ago. It happened for a quarter. It hasn't happened since. But you know what? I don't even know if that matters anymore at this point. I mean, that to me is like that's yesterday's news. I think people are all excited about SpaceX and what it potentially means for Tesla.
30:16So to the extent that it gets brought up, that's going to be the thing that I will listen to.
30:20Tim Seymour:All right. Meantime, Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh facing lawmakers on the Senate Banking Committee today, where he suggested the central bank needs a new framework to deal with inflation. Steve Leisman's got the details here. Hey, Steve. Hey, Melissa. Yeah, Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh getting strong support from Republicans, but undergoing sharp questioning from Democrats about potential conflicts of interest from his vast holdings. Democratic Senator Warren accusing Walsh of being President Trump's sock puppet, who would lower rates at the behest of the president. That led to this exchange later with Republican Senator Kennedy.
30:55Are you going to be the president's human sock puppet? Senator, absolutely not. Are you going to be anybody's human sock puppet? No, I'm honored the president nominated me for the position, and I'll be an independent actor if confirmed as chairman of the Federal Reserve. worse decline to say if lowering rates to one percent as the president has demanded would cause inflation they said that tariffs had not caused inflation we ask ourselves whether the generalized change in prices is having second order effects on the economy again they're not where they should be but i think that the trend is quite favorable war sticking to his optimism about the positive impact that productivity would have on inflation and the u.s growth rates and he said the Fed needs to use different data to gauge inflation, focusing on underlying price increases to make policy.
31:46For the record, the Fed already does this, and several of those measures are also elevated, Melissa.
31:52Tim Seymour:All right, Steve. Thank you, Steve Leisman. Stock puppet. It was an eventful hearing. I mean, he got grilled about his holdings. My favorite, I mean, the whole thing about the stock puppet, human stock puppet specifically, as opposed to just being a sock puppet. He had to say human sock puppet many times. That really struck me as interesting. Anyway, I think it's not, I mean, I think most people in the markets believe that he is imminently qualified.
32:20Karen Finerman:He's buying his bed chair. I don't think his resume is at all in question. By the way, Guy is a sock puppet on his Pinterest page.
32:26Tim Seymour:A human sock puppet. Yeah, I don't know if it's human or not.
32:29Karen Finerman:It's a sock puppet. But the three things I heard today were independent. I heard less accommodative. And I heard a focus on inflation. And those are things that if you break it down, the less accommodative Fed and a focus on inflation is more hawkish, seemingly, except for the independence dynamic is very good for equities and very good for bonds, more to the bond point. So not surprisingly, some fireworks. And I think a guy who is qualified for the shot.
32:59Melissa Lee:Yeah. You know, 10 years, sticking around four and a quarter and just, you know, the longer this war gets pushed out. That's where I think it creates a difficult situation, I think, for Kevin Warsh, who's coming in with the expectation that he's at least going to be accommodative. I heard everything that you heard. But like once he's in the seat, we know that the president is not going to go from just bashing Jerome Powell, you know, the way he has, you know, every week or every day for the last few months or so and just kind of allow. There will be a honeymoon, like make no mistake about it. But at some point he's going to expect rate cuts no matter what happens.
33:30Market doesn't expect him, though. I think it's a 40 percent chance of just one rate cut the rest of the year. Maybe that's good news because the market at all time highs says, you know what, rate cuts don't necessarily matter. But I think he's extraordinarily well qualified. But I was shocked that President Trump actually put his name in because of the independence I think he's going to bring to the Fed.
33:50Tim Seymour:Coming up, Apple's next move, shares dropping today after Tim Cook announced plans to hand the reins later this year. Hand them over to John Ternus. What Wall Street says about the news and what the chart master sees in the technicals that could lay the foundation for the stock's next move. Back in two.
34:13Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. Shares of Apple dropping 2.5 % today as investors digested. Last night's news that CEO Tim Cook would step down from his post on September 1st. Current hardware head John Ternus will take over. Many Wall Street firms seem positive on the leadership change. Melia saying Ternus was clearly the right choice, and TD Cowan views the promotion as a positive for Apple. But what do the charts say? Carterworth, what do you think? Well, it's dull. I would just put it that way. So that's another way of saying a pair of twos. But let's just talk about it conceptually for a second.
34:45So Apple's relative performance, the tech sector, peaked in September of 2022. Here we are in the spring, summer of 2026. And there's every possibility that that relative peak will stand for many more years. But here and now is a chart. It's meandering. It hasn't made a new high. It is underperforming on a past two, three-year basis, both the market and its sector. And to my eye, it's neither fish nor fowl. Is there a big thesis to be long and overweight? Not really. Is it imminent short? Not really. And so I would characterize this as do nothing. Maybe if you're benchmarked to an index, you have to have it.
35:25But is it actionable, exciting, dynamic? No.
35:30Tim Seymour:So then it would seem that John Tornas has his hands full.
35:34Melissa Lee:Well, he does. I mean, when Tim Cooks takes the stage, and he will be taking the stage at WWDC, you can make the argument that expectations are kind of low. Two years in a row, I think that they've kind of released a product that people were not exactly excited about. And then you have to kind of bridge the gap until they introduce the iPhones in the summer, right? So it's going to be, or excuse me, in September, October. So it's going to be a bit of a wait until we know exactly what their AI strategy is and what it looks like on device, because we know that one of their big focuses is obviously security.
36:04Melissa Lee:And it's also, you know, they didn't spend a lot of time or money kind of building out models. They're going to be licensing them. So putting all that together, I mean, that is Apple's strategy. And I suspect at some point in 2027 that will be realized in the stock. But between here and now, I'd be surprised if it did, if they get the benefit of the doubt in that regard.
36:23Karen Finerman:It's one of these announcements that we've kind of been expecting for some time. It's one of these announcements that no one really knows. I mean, the things that have defined Apple over the last five to ten years are not just the underperformance or the last three, but the fact that Apple doesn't go out and buy anything. And so if that changes, that's a big deal, because part of the reason Apple's been so defensive during down periods is that's as bulletproof of a balance sheet and a free cash flow generator as any place out there. The fact that they've elevated a product and hardware head is, you know, you have to be positive and view that innovation on the product side is something that at least could be out there.
36:58Karen Finerman:But right now, I like the fact that Apple hasn't spent on AI. I like the fact that it doesn't have an AI multiple. And we talked about this last night. Tim was not here, but he would have thought, I think, similar, that with 10 days until the earnings release, there's a very good chance that in his last earnings release, this will be one for the record books. Now, whether or not the stock rallies on that, we will see. But I think you can pretty much foregone conclusion this will be a record quarter.
37:24Tim Seymour:Coming up, a short in the senior housing space where our next guest is concerned about one real estate operator and where he sees the stock going from here when Fast Money returns.
37:41Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. Shares of senior rental property operator Welltower under pressure today after activist investor Land and Buildings revealed it is shorting the stock, citing major concerns with the company's executive compensation plans. Welltower shares had been on a tear over the past year, up 44 percent. Jonathan Lidd is behind the short. He's Land and Buildings founder and Chief Investment Officer. Jonathan, great to have you with us. You went short two weeks after the proxy. Is that when you discovered the executive compensation plan? First, thanks for having me on. We knew it was out there, but we wanted to see the final form, which came out in the proxy two weeks ago.
38:17Yeah.
38:17Tim Seymour:Okay. So what was so shocking about it that made you want to go short? So probably the best way to set this up is think about Charlie Munger and his famous quote, show me the incentives, I'll show you the outcomes. This plan can pay the CEO$3 billion over five plus years. $3 billion with a B. $3 billion over five years. And this is in cash, and this is stock? Stock. Units. Now, if you generated an enormous return, maybe that's OK. He gets a substantial piece just for being in the chair for five years. He gets another substantial piece for generating a return greater than zero. So any return will get the next round.
38:54And he pays a dividend. So there's going to be a return. He's got to do some other things. But the numbers are staggering. And when we think about the legendary CEOs and REITs, David Simon at Simon Property Group for 30 years, Hamid Mogadam at Prologis for 30 years, they never earned anything anywhere near this. Now, three billion isn't the only reason. It's the incentives. He's got an incentive to grow the size of the company, but not to increase the share price by any meaningful amount, which means he's going to grow it. And we've been here. I've been on the show before with companies that have done that on the short side.
39:33And it's highly problematic and it's not aligned with shareholders. Stock trades at 150 percent premium to about underlying real estate. Thirty three times multiple. Its closest peers. It's got to go down 60 percent to get to its closest peers. We own the peers. We think the business is fantastic. We just think that incentives here are wrong. Valuation's wrong. And it's set up for a bad outcome for sure. Well, that would be my question, because the valuation would, you know, they could earn seven dollars maybe in the off next year. So you can do the back of the envelope math and they traded a premium.
40:06How important is this earnings release? I think on the 28th. I mean, is that something that regardless of outcome, you're going to stick to your guns on the short side? He is going to continue to buy like crazy. Right. It did thirty five billion or so last year because he's going to make more money the bigger he gets the company. Not necessarily by making us the shareholders money. He's going to make more money just by getting the company's total market cap up. When is that going to unwind? I think sooner rather than later. It might not happen tomorrow. You know, I came on on Alexandria in 23.
40:39The stock was 120, got to 40. And so I think it's going to happen. I think it's going to be painful for shareholders. I can't pinpoint the timing.
40:46Tim Seymour:You say potentially a 60 percent drop. How do you come by that number? That's just to get to the value of the peers. Ventas and American Healthcare, which we own both of. And they've performed similarly since 24. By the way, Jonathan, we should point out that we did contact Well Tower and we invited them to come on the show. They declined to come on the show. But this is what they did point us to. They pointed us to page 39 of their proxy report in which they basically say they have to pay this amount to the CEO and other members of the executive committee because they don't want to lose them.
41:22Tim Seymour:They have been key to the performance of the company. They don't want to lose them. So they've structured this sort of incentive plan. There's the excerpt from the from the proxy statement. This is a classic, classic compensation committee jargon. We're going to lose them. I'd like to know if Apollo or Blackstone is going to pay this guy$3 billion to leave to run their health care. They're not. They don't do that. It goes the other way. The guys go from the Blackstones and the KKRs to the REITs and to be public market CEOs. It doesn't go the other way. We can find great CEOs for a lot less than$3 billion to run a REIT.
41:56It's not a complicated business. This isn't rocket science to put a point on it or other businesses that are quite, you need that character. You have two companies. We're just going to go back to this. Ventas, we put two people on the board in 24. American health care went public in 24. American health care has crushed Welltower's returns. That CEO isn't getting$3 billion. The CEO of Ventas isn't getting$3 billion, and they don't have an incentive structure to get it. They're going to keep driving those returns. If the CEO wants to leave, God bless, go get$3 billion somewhere else. That shouldn't be coming out of shareholders' pockets with this kind of a plan.
42:31Tim Seymour:Jonathan, great to see you. Thanks for coming by and explaining the short Johnson lit in buildings. I mean,$3 billion for anybody is a lot of money. It's a lot of money. And to Jonathan's point, I mean, that's one of the reasons, probably the cherry on top. But, I mean, remember he came on with Alexander, A-R-E, and look at where that stock traded down to. It made levels we last saw in 2008, 2009. So, you know, you don't have to agree with him, but you know Jonathan is absolutely doing his homework here.
42:54Karen Finerman:Well, I was going to say, the kind of work these guys do, it's deep. And to go through what was expected, to be ready for that comp statement and be positioned for it, For a company that the easier part of this short is that it's very expensive relative to peers. And, you know, whether it's 40 percent or 50 percent, there's a number of different analysts on the street that feel the same way. That means at least you could be long the other side and short this one and still be OK.
43:20Tim Seymour:We've got a developing story on Anthropics' new mythos AI model. Kate Rooney is in San Francisco with the very latest. Kate. Hey, Melissa. So Bloomberg now reporting that Anthropics' mythos model, this is the cybersecurity model, that was only released to a small group of companies. Bloomberg reporting that this has been accessed by unauthorized users. They cite a source familiar with the matter and documentation viewed by Bloomberg. We have reached out to Anthropic, and they haven't gotten back to us quite yet. But the details here of this report are essentially that this mythos model was found by a group online, and they got access to it.
43:55Tim Seymour:They're not necessarily using it for cybersecurity, But it does indicate that despite the company's best efforts to really make this a gated release, not release it to the broader public, which they've said they do not plan to do, people have gotten access again, according to Bloomberg. This has not been previously reported. We'll see if we get any response from the company, Mel. But mythos has been breached in some way. It's being used by those outside of the group that was intended for. Kate, thank you, Kate Rooney. Of course, this is based on a report. There's a lot we do not know. But in a time where we were waging an asymmetric war with Iran, I don't know, your mind kind of jumps to what could be the worst case scenario in terms of this very powerful model getting into the wrong hands.
44:39Melissa Lee:Yeah, that was the point. I mean, it was good at identifying things. It was also good at exploiting things. And so here you are right out of the gate. It's looked to be exploiting.
44:47Tim Seymour:Coming up, Target goes streaking. Shares riding days, weeks, and months long run in the green. How are traders are positioning in the name right now? More fast in tune.
45:04Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. Target hitting the jackpot. Shares trading at their highest level since February 2025. And they're on quite a roll. The stock is up six days in a row, five weeks in a row and five straight months. It is, of course, the T in the infamous Timbo.
45:22Karen Finerman:Well, look, it's nice to have one of the horses pulling. And I think this is a combination of a stock that really sentiment was so poor, so underowned. It was a valuation, but it was a value trap for a long time. Change in management. But most importantly, the things that matter, they've got their inventory under control. Clearly, the segment and the mix here are to higher margin products. They don't necessarily have to sell it all just for groceries. I think this is a story you stay with. I mean, it's in a world where the consumer is OK. It's proven that this one, well, it shows that this one will outperform based upon both a change in sentiment and a change in their business.
45:58Karen Finerman:I guess finally comes to mind, right? I mean, we've been watching it. But it qualifies, as charts go, as a bearish, too bullish.
46:07Tim Seymour:stamp of approval from CBW. Real quick before we go to break. It's in that downtrend from the all-time high in the fall of 2021 has not been broken. As a matter of fact, today's move, I think, gets us to the third point of a long-term downtrend. Mel. All right. Up next, final trades.
46:29Tim Seymour:Final trade time. Timothy.
46:31Karen Finerman:There was a lot of hype tonight about my Citibank. And I'll tell you what, I think we are going higher. Let's go to one and a half price tangible book. City. Carter. I'm with you on City, but Eaton Court, major industrial, just now breaking out. Law.
46:44Tim Seymour:Stan.
46:44Melissa Lee:Yeah, Intel, I would not chase into the print.
46:48Tim Seymour:Bye. Tough one last night at MSG, world's most famous arena. As Mel said, Earl, you can't lose that game with a 12-point lead in the fourth quarter. You should. But sometimes you get it kicked into you-know-what. Genuine parts, Mel. Thanks for watching Fast Money, Mad Money with Jim Cramer starts right now.
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From the publisher
Shares of Intel in rally mode, as the tech stock climbs 80% this year as investors eye its next earnings report on Thursday. The reasons behind the move, and why Wall Street is jumping on the band wagon. Plus United Airlines reports results, the Chartmaster hits Apple’s technicals on the back of its leadership shift, and all the headlines out of Fed nominee Kevin Warsh’s hearing on the hill.
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