Looking Ahead To Fed Decision; Waystar CEO on AI in Health Care 9/15/25

0:00Hi, it's Melissa. Before we jump into today's show, I've got something exciting to share. On December 11th, we are hosting a special edition of Fast Money Live. trading the holidays right here at the Nasdaq Market Site. You get to watch a live taping of Fast Money, meet and interact with the traders, and of course, celebrate the holiday season with us. It's stocks and cheers in the heart of the city, Times Square in December. You will not want to miss this. Tickets are available now at CNBCEvents.com slash Fast Money.

0:27Live from the Nasdaq Market Site in the heart of New York City's Times Square, this is Fast Money. Here's what's on tap tonight. A China boom. Beijing's tech stocks jumping today as President Trump reportedly gets ready to meet with Xi Jinping. What it means for trade between the two nations and investing in emerging markets. And the newest member of the$3 trillion club, how Alphabet got back on top in the AI race and where the stock goes from here. Plus, Tesla keeps rolling after a big buy from the CEO. Is it time to sell Citi as the stock gets 17-year highs? And Novo gets a nod. The data that has the weight loss drugmaker higher today.

1:02I'm Melissa Lee coming to you live from Studio B at the NASDAQ on the desk tonight. Tim Seymour, Karen Feyerman, Steve Grasso, and look who's back, Guy Adami. And we start off with another round of records on Wall Street as U.S. and China trade talks reclaim the spotlight. The NASDAQ and S &P both setting intraday highs while the Dow gained nearly 50 points. Chinese stocks higher with the tech-heavy KWeb ETF at nearly four-year highs. Large-cap stocks in Beijing also seeing gains. Early today, Treasury Secretary Scott Besson said the Trump administration had reached a framework deal on TikTok.

1:34All this amid reports the president will meet with the Chinese counterpart at a summit on Friday. For the very latest, let's bring in CNBC's Eamon Javers, who is at the White House. Hey, Eamon. Hey there, Melissa. Officials here have not provided any new details throughout the day of what they're calling this framework of a deal. So we don't know yet who the buyer is going to be, how much the buyer will pay or exactly what the assets are that are going to apparently be sold here. Treasury Secretary Scott Besson, as you point out, said this morning in Spain that more details won't be available until later this week.

2:08I think the framework is for it to switch to U.S. controlled ownership. But again, I'm not going to get ahead of the leaders call on Friday. we have a framework, they'll have to confirm the deal. Now, the Chinese side put out a statement on Monday confirming the idea of a framework and also suggesting there may be more in play here than just TikTok itself, writing that the two sides reached a basic framework consensus on properly resolving TikTok-related issues through cooperative means, reducing investment barriers, and promoting relevant economic and trade cooperation. So a key question here is whether the Chinese side will allow the sale of the actual TikTok algorithm or if the U.S.

2:53buyers will be expected to produce their own version of it. All of this seems positioned to clear the decks for the possibility of an in-person meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi somewhere in Asia sometime this fall, Melissa. And you heard the Treasury Secretary there reference it. They are talking about a call between the two leaders as soon as Friday. And that might be the final agreement. minute, we might get more details on this TikTok deal, of which we only have a framework for now. Melissa, back over to you. Call me a skeptic, Aimee, but it doesn't sound like they've agreed to all that much.

3:26I mean, if at issue is still whether or not they're going to allow for the sale of the algorithm, that seems like a big potential stumbling block that they hadn't agreed to in the past. And the vice commerce minister also said today in Madrid that they will agree to the idea of a framework, but they will not sacrifice their principles. Yeah, there was some pretty tough rhetoric from the Chinese side today. And I think, Melissa, either there's two possibilities here. Either there's a deal and it's just waiting to be blessed by the two leaders in this call on Friday, and that's as soon as they can have the call, or there's not really a deal.

3:58There's an agreement to kind of generally pursue a deal, and they'll see if they can finalize it on Friday. We just don't know which one it is. Officials here at the White House not giving any answers to my questions today on exactly what's been agreed to, exactly what the sales price will be, who the buyers are, any of the basic parameters of any deal. But the U.S. side has clearly said that there is a call scheduled. I only ask this because Yunus Yun in the last hour said there's no reporting on the Chinese side of any sort of conversation scheduled for Friday. Yeah, I mean, you heard it there from the Treasury Secretary in that soundbite that we just played.

4:30He's referencing a call between the two leaders. I've talked to some officials here today who say, you know, they're not going to be able to read out any details at all on this framework until perhaps later in the week. So it's all pointing toward the end of the week, Friday, as the day where we might see that call between those two leaders. These things can be moved around. They can be scheduled at late notice. So it does seem like there's something on the books for Friday. But whether that happens or not, you know, we'll just have to follow the bouncing ball. Yep. And so it bounces. Eamon, thank you so much.

5:01Eamon Javers at the White House. Well, whether or not there is the idea of a framework, a framework, something agreed upon, not agreed upon. It's better than both sides walking away with nothing, Tim. I mean, it does sort of pave the way, at least for the possibility that there could be a conversation on Friday, which is a good thought. And President Trump is speaking in glowing terms about their relationship. I think there was three exclamation points after he talked about that relationship. And it's, look, framework for a deal, that's great. Chinese, you made a great point. They're not going to sacrifice their core principles.

5:33You know, what's a bit ironic here is where are the core principles? We talk about state ownership of a company, and that's something that we kind of want to have here. And so we'll see. I think ultimately it has set the backstage for two things that are driving outperformance for emerging markets and for China tech, which include the Fed. Let's not forget what's going on this week. You know, an easier backdrop for U.S. interest rates in a world where growth doesn't fall apart is great for EM. A weaker dollar is great for EM. And then you have a dynamic with China tech. We've been we've been getting great numbers.

6:05We've been getting and again, people have been able to drill into the fundamentals around Alibaba, which include Ali Cloud, which includes some of the other drivers, Tencent. You know, these are stories about I mean, I'm long Alibaba. It's the largest position in my ETF. So, I mean, I think there's a lot more to go. I think there's a case here that you can see in emerging markets, which now if you look at the composition of the EEM 10 years ago, there's a lot of oil and gas and kind of low multiple stocks and this and that. The top five names are Taiwan Semi is 11 percent. You get Alibaba. You get Tencent.

6:36You get Samsung. You get Hynix. I mean, you've got an exciting tech play to invest in emerging with. And I think I think you should. Guy, welcome back. Hello. Hello, everybody. Yeah. Just one couple. A couple lackluster. I expect nothing but lackluster. Hello. But we got to go back to you on on tube. We haven't gotten your tube even in your app. How could you forget? I mean, even in absentia, my tube is always around somewhere. And there it is. The tube is Ali. I'm just looking at the screen now. And Tim's right. I mean, this stock had closed 155, the highest level we've seen in quite some time.

7:12But K-Web, if you want to sort of play ETFs, it's absolutely a bearish to bullish reversal. If Carter were here, he would say that. And once we got above 39.5, it broke this level that we've basically been flatlining at over the last three years. FXI definitely has broken out to the upside. And if you want to sort of stay domestically, look at Wynn, for example, which is now through a seven-year downtrend line pretty impressively. So I think all these stocks, and Tim is right, despite the fact that Alibaba moved the way it has this year, there's still further room to the upside. Yeah, I agree with both of them.

7:45I think the point about the relationship maybe being on better terms between the U.S. and China is definitely better for these names. like we're seeing NVIDIA now sort of caught in the crosshairs, maybe, maybe not. It's sort of rallied as things on the day seem to get friendlier, I guess. So that is good. I mean, anything that would allow this question mark of how are these stocks going to be caught in the crosshairs, if we can remove that, the valuation on Alibaba is still extraordinarily attractive. It is up 86 percent year to date so far. So that might be a little bit of a pull forward on that.

8:24But if you think about the trade extensions for TikTok, January, April and June, those are the three times that extended the trade deadlines. And I think that setting it up right now with the framework, I think, is setting up for another extension. There's nothing on fentanyl. There's nothing on chips. There's nothing on IP. So this is just enough to keep it going until November where that deadline is. I think that's enough, being as though we have the Fed this week. That'll be China, November. I'm curious, Tim, if there is a real thawing of relations, and let's say there's a China trade deal, and granted, we wouldn't know the details, but let's say that there is a deal, both sides are happy, et cetera.

9:03Is that better for Chinese stocks or U.S. stocks? Which would react more sharply? Well, I think U.S. stocks have kind of forgotten about China. I really do, with the exception of a couple of the big mega caps, and we still think there's an overhang, and Karen brings up, Every day, there's seemingly some concern that China could say, hey, we've got a compliance issue at NVIDIA. But I think ultimately this is about China. And I know that when we were investing in Alibaba and Tencent, there were people that said, well, what do you do if you get delisted? And I think that was something that was out there.

9:36I think people think about it. And the extreme case are Russian ADRs, which were wiped off of people's portfolios. I think if you have a green light in terms of the China tech sector, and then what we've been talking about for a year on this show, is that China is making their tech companies more investable. So, you know, some of the biggest tech companies in the world, and, you know, let's not forget about Alibaba. I mean, excuse me, Baidu. Let's not forget about JD.com. Let's not forget about NetEase. I mean, there's a lot of, you know, go through that K-Web. You can see these are other names.

10:04I think it's better for them. But I also think that EM underperformance of developed markets for how long? If you want to make a case that there could be mean reversion here, again, you can't have growth fall apart. But if the Fed is your friend and rates are weaker and the dollar is weaker, much better for international. They're an export economy, though, so it has to be bigger for them. We have a more diverse economy, so China is reliant on this deal going through because you can make the case that China's economy is weaker right now than the U.S. is. So they're dependent on this because they don't have that many dimensions to their economy the way that the U.S.

10:39does. But in terms of China tech companies aren't necessarily exporters, right? They're domestic companies. I'm talking about China as a whole. Sorry. The Chinese economy as a whole. I think it's a better, bigger win for China if this dispute gets settled. Yeah. I think for the markets, though, I mean, I can't speak to the economy, but for the market, I think the Chinese market absolutely is the big winner here. And, you know, not that any of this matters, but Alibaba was probably a$600 billion, maybe more market cap company five years ago when everybody loved it. So, you know, we're basically halfway back.

11:15I think 180 is a very reasonable level, which would be a 50 percent retracement of that all time high in the recent low we saw at the beginning of this year. OK, let's get more on the China rally and bring in Allspring Global Senior Portfolio Manager Derek Erwin. Derek, welcome to the show. Thank you. Hi, how are you? Good, good. Your portfolio is emerging markets overall. So how do you view the China trade talks? What has progressed so far? What hasn't progressed in relationship to what we've seen in terms of the gains in stocks? Are we spring-loaded for more should there be a further thawing?

11:48Look, I think that the trade talks are going to be really important, and I'm glad we're talking about them. But I think your point with the broader Chinese rally that we've seen is really about a lot more than just the trade talks. Right. So it's about AI, as you've talked about already with Tencent, with Alibaba and China emerging as an AI force. It's about after four years of very difficult anti-growth policies, a policy switch toward growth. And I think that those have legs. So I think for certain sectors of the Chinese market, they will continue to do well. And I'm very optimistic, just as you are, particularly on the tech and AI side.

12:31Now, in terms of the broader market, I think the trade will be very important. My sense is that while the news today is very positive for trade talks, I think there's a lot of positive expectations already priced in. We've had delay after delay with TikTok. We've had a pushback on a lot of deadlines. And I think the general sense among investors I've talked to in China is that the direction of travel on trade talks is reasonably positive. The direction of travel. So which side is fielding the inbound? Yeah, no, I think in the sense that we should see an improvement in relations and trade relations between the U.S.

13:15and China one way or another. I think that the risk of trade talks falling apart or going backwards is much less than progress on trade talks. And certainly today, despite the NVIDIA news, I would say we've certainly seen that. Derek, it's Karen. Thanks so much for being on. What would you say is the most likely thing to trip up the talks if that happens? Is it AI? Is it China's relationship with Russia? What do you think it is? You know, I think the Russia issue is a big one and bigger than we think, right? If we look at what Trump was willing to do in India on the back of Russian oil, he's made a lot of noise about Russian oil being sold into China recently.

13:58I think that can be a real risk. The big concern that we have with trade policy since April is that we've moved from trade focus to the U.S. trying to reorganize global trade systems to using tariffs and trade policy as a geopolitical tool. So I worry about that only because it is very unpredictable. We just don't have much visibility there. Derek, Tim, what is the one EM stock we're not talking about that you love? People know about Alibaba. What stocks in your portfolio, highest conviction that it doesn't have to be a small cap? It could be one of these big caps that we haven't named. Yeah, well, I'll give you two.

14:38But the easiest one for me, you've been talking about Alibaba. And I fully agree that the opportunity in Alibaba is a good one. But I think the other big elephant in China is Tencent. And I think Tencent is as well positioned or maybe better than Alibaba, particularly as AI in China develops. simply because Tencent has such a powerful ecosystem with all of their apps that can work together so well and use AI as an agent to accomplish so much, arguably with less investment in AI than maybe Alibaba has. So I'm really looking forward to the opportunity that Tencent has to exploit what is incredibly powerful AI in China.

15:22Derek, where does Taiwan fall into all this, if at all? Are they a chip in the negotiations in these deals, do you think? Oh, that's a good question. I don't think so. I think that both sides would really, really like to punt that question as far down the road as they can. I think that both sides of the negotiation recognize that that's a third rail for China. And the less we can talk about it, the better for now. So I don't think as a trade bargaining chip, Taiwan will be on the agenda. Derek, great speaking with you. Thank you so much. Thank you. Derek Irwin, what's your favorite? Well, of stocks people can buy.

16:08I mean, Hynex to me is another one of these names that most people don't know. And in terms of tech and infrastructure, I think it's really exciting. I'll go with Tencent. In fact, I believe I've said before, I think Tencent is maybe outside of Google. the greatest global incubator in the world. And it's also got a lot of social media elements to it. And I think it's wildly undervalued. And it's the number four, or actually the number three weighted stock in the emerging markets index that a lot of people don't own. Baidu, I think, listen, it's had a move recently, but nothing nearly as close as some of the other names we talked about.

16:42So if you look at a 10-year chart of Baidu, it feels like it's just getting going now. So that would be the other one in this list. If you think before that there are national champions in China, I mean, you would think that now there's more so national champions as we have this AI war, right, east versus west, sort of the dividing line is being drawn. And they really have to make sure their AI industry is seated and is supported here. Well, we saw that with DeepSeek, right? So we just don't know how deep they're going to go down the chain. And there are a handful of companies the same way that we have a handful of companies that signify their technology and that signify their markets as a whole.

17:16But if you look at J.D., same token with Baidu. It hasn't done anything for so long. Just one point on your question earlier for who would benefit more. If you look at Bob and think of them as the Amazon of China and you back out the extraordinary amount of cash, you're looking at like a 15 multiple. And when you look at Amazon, which actually is net debt, not for them, but at 35 times, I've got to think that Alibaba would be the beneficiary over Amazon. The B in CARB, of course. Thank you. As opposed to the C, Chinese Internet. No, it's not the B encarbed. It's the A encarbed. The B is Boeing.

17:51What is the B? Oh, is it Boeing? It makes perfect sense. Of course it makes sense. It's in there. It's the R that's so troubling. Anyway, all of that is troubling to me. The whole thing's troubling. By the way, make sure to tune in to Spockbox tomorrow for an interview with Treasury Secretary Scott Besson for the latest on the China Trade Talks. That's 7 a.m. Eastern Time only on CNBC. Meantime, Google parent Alphabet becoming the fourth company to reach a trillion,$3 trillion market cap in. With that, the MAG-7 is worth roughly$20 trillion in combined value. That is more than China's entire economy, according to the IMF.

18:25So the significance of obviously a huge pop after the antitrust ruling, that was a huge sigh of relief for shareholders like yourself. Yes. Yeah. And in fact, I on Friday put on a collar. I feel like that run was was really extraordinary. I mean, things are great. We all know about the nano banana, nano banana coming in. number one of image generation and editing. I have not used it yet, Nano Banana, but the idea that, okay, Google is in front on the AI, not behind, has also been very good. I think Tim has used a Nano Banana before. I was going to ask whether, when's the Nano Banana going in your tube?

19:04Well, a lot of people wonder that. Can we get onto it before we go too far down this? Google, we talked about a couple weeks ago, we said once it got through that prior high. We can make a valuation case somewhere between 242 and 245. It overshot it a little bit here. But, you know, this is the level that it should be trading, I think, on a valuation basis if you just want to throw a market multiple. So this move actually does make sense. Still cheaper than a lot of the Mag7. It's about 10 turns cheaper than the closest one, really. I mean, and I would just point out that I think in the case of Google, what were we talking about before the antitrust case was all about how somehow Google was not in the game in terms of their core search or how they're where Gemini was in the new world order.

19:47I mean, basically, the antitrust result has unlocked value on the core businesses in a way that I don't think I don't think the street had predicted. The analyst community had not predicted. Most investors had not predicted. I mean, it's up 18 percent since the antitrust ruling. Totally. And it caught everyone off guard. But it seems like that was the only tailwind that people were looking at. And when I look at the valuation, I think of it as lack of growth that's pushing it, not maybe a pseudo value trap. But obviously, the movement that we've seen has been incredible. Going from$2 trillion to$3 trillion, NVIDIA did it in 96 days.

20:21Google did it in 900 days. I think people have been betting against the stock for so long, they were so surprised, I would sell it. Coming up, Citi Surge continues. Shares of the Money Center Bank hitting$100 a share today for the first time since the great financial crisis. Why one of our traders says it may be time to take some profits. That's next. Plus, boosting uranium. The news sending nuclear stocks, well, nuclear. Can the names keep the rally going strong? Don't go anywhere. Fast Money is back in two.

20:53This is Fast Money with Melissa Lee, right here on CNBC.

21:05Welcome back to Fast Money. Shares of Citigroup touching$100 a share today, bringing its gains for the year to nearly 42 percent. On a split-adjusted basis, that's its highest level since November 2008, but it's still a fraction of what it was before the financial crisis. Guy, you say maybe time to take some profits? I think collectively, when I say collectively, everybody on this desk has been talking about how Citi is, in terms of its valuation price to book and plan to JP Morgan, it just doesn't make sense. And now at least it's gotten itself to a reasonable level where if you've been fortunate enough to be long the stock, you have to do something here.

21:40So we thought maybe between 100 and 105, it got there today. I think you've got to be moving your feet here. So whether that's selling a quarter, third, half your position, but to think that it's going to go down to 125 in a straight line, I don't think that happens. Look, I know Citigroup was a poster child for everything that was wrong around the great financial crisis. And they were overextended. They didn't know what they owned. They blew up in many different ways. And I don't think we're doing that here. But that chart is meaningless. It's what's it going to do tomorrow. And, in fact, this is a bank that's still cheap to the other money center banks.

22:14CFO Mark Mason just, yeah, I think, yeah, I was trying to get his pronunciation. Mason, pretty straightforward. Mark Mason, you know, we're sensitive about those things here. Mark Mason gave an update at a conference that he talked about the capital markets business and really the earnings profile of that business. And it left the street in a place where they were upgrading both revenue and profitability for a bank that all we've done is talk about the expense cut. I mean, to me, the story really is the year of efficiency or the three years of efficiency that the C-suite has undertaken. So I stay long.

22:47And I think of the money center banks, and I think money center banks are the perfect way to play what's going on with rates and the economy. Stay at Citi. I agree. I mean, a lot of great things going on there for all of them, for all the money center banks. I mean, look at the amount of activity we're seeing in capital markets, in IPOs. But at 15 times earnings for Citi, they have to really start, I think, accelerating on the promise of some of those efficiency gains. And I think they will. So I'm staying long. I have put on a 100 by 110, but overridden. So selling extra 110s because I agree with guys run a lot.