In short
Fast Money discusses a tech-led market rally driven by AI/memory semiconductors, while debating whether Mag 7 strength is masking broader weakness. They also cover macro signals (jobs vs. consumer sentiment), Treasury yields/possible rate path, gold and gold miners, and geopolitical risk tied to the Iran ceasefire and the upcoming Trump-Xi summit (including rare earths and Taiwan).
Guests
Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research; Dennis Unkovich, partner at Meyer, Unkovich and Scott; Sharon Epperson, CNBC; plus on-desk analysts Melissa Lee, Tim Seymour, Steve Grasso, Guy Adami, Bono Anaysen.
Key claims
AI earnings growth is real but concentration risk remains; CapEx flattening could be the “canary” for the memory/semis trade; consumer sentiment suggests a “K-shaped” economy; Fed is on hold with rate cuts unlikely; 10-year yields could rise toward ~5%.
Notable examples
Micron +38% since Monday; Intel “sentiment trade”; Samsung/Hynix memory names; Apple preliminary Intel chip-manufacturing deal; gold miners (AEM/GLD/GDX); rare earth leverage (China refining 80–90%); Gen Z income stacking and multiple jobs.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Chapters
Tap a time to open that second in VOAI Trade and Market Performance
1:39 to 2:41
Discussion on the AI trade and how it is impacting market performance.
“But we start off with the AI trade powering markets to new heights.”
Analyzing Earnings and Market Concerns
2:41 to 7:45
In-depth analysis of earnings growth and concerns about the broader market.
“It used to be someone to say, you know what, Tim, you make a negative symbol.”
Consumer Sentiment and Economic Indicators
7:45 to 11:15
Discussion on consumer sentiment and economic indicators amidst market trends.
“Now, we're all talking about Intel versus NVIDIA.”
Federal Reserve and Interest Rate Outlook
11:15 to 14:00
Insights on the Federal Reserve's position on interest rates and economic outlook.
“I would get on a couple of the other ones.”
Market Predictions Amidst War
14:00 to 18:11
Discussion on the potential for rate hikes and market reactions due to ongoing geopolitical tensions.
“I don't think he even has the votes at this point.”
Updates on the Iran War and Ceasefire
18:11 to 20:36
Megan Casella provides the latest updates on the U.S.-Iran situation and implications for international relations.
“Let's get to Megan Casella at the White House.”
Market Reactions to Geopolitical Developments
20:36 to 21:24
Analysts discuss how the market is responding to ongoing geopolitical issues and the upcoming Trump-Xi meeting.
“And that bar being high has enabled the markets to climb to new highs, right?”
Market Reactions to Geopolitical Developments
22:22 to 22:47
Analysts discuss how the market is responding to ongoing geopolitical issues and the upcoming Trump-Xi meeting.
“Well, with Mathnasium, every kid can be a math kid.”
Market Reactions to Geopolitical Developments
22:50 to 27:05
Analysts discuss how the market is responding to ongoing geopolitical issues and the upcoming Trump-Xi meeting.
“Apple rising 2 % to all-time highs on reports that the company struck a preliminary deal for Intel to manufacture chips to power its devices.”
Apple's Stock Surge and Strategic Moves
27:09 to 28:00
Discussion on Apple's recent stock performance and its strategic partnership with Intel for chip manufacturing.
“Hi, I'm Angie Hicks, co-founder of Angie.”
Show all 22 chapters
Apple's Market Position and Supply Chain Strategy
28:00 to 30:23
Discussion on Apple's strategic moves and market reactions post-earnings announcement.
“You know, they were definitely laggards into that massive upward AI trajectory.”
Upcoming Topics and Market Insights
30:23 to 30:59
Preview of discussions on gold prices and the Trump-Xi summit.
“What's driving the precious metals' latest rebound?”
Gold Market Trends and Investment Opportunities
30:59 to 32:52
Analysis of current gold market trends and potential for investment in gold miners.
“The precious metal running a four-day winning streak on hopes of a U.S.-Iran peace deal and a weakening dollar.”
Analyzing the Trump-Xi Meeting and China's Position
32:52 to 36:44
Discussion of the key issues surrounding the upcoming Trump-Xi summit, focusing on China's leverage.
“Welcome back to Fast Money Stocks, ending the week on a high note following the better-than-expected April jobs report, the Dow eking out a gain of 12 points.”
Taiwan and China's Strategic Moves
36:44 to 39:28
Exploration of China's interest in Taiwan and implications for U.S. foreign policy.
“About two-thirds of the technology globally now is from the West, generally the West.”
Job Market Trends and Income Stacking
39:28 to 42:00
Analysis of job market data and the rise of multiple job holders in response to economic pressures.
“We've been talking about Taiwan for a long time.”
Introduction to the Episode
42:00 to 42:12
Introduction of the topics to be discussed in this segment.
“all the details on income stacking when Fast Money returns.”
Understanding Income Stacking
42:12 to 43:52
Discussion on the rise of income stacking in the U.S. job market.
“CNBC's Sharon Epperson joins us to discuss the trend and its implications.”
Economic Implications of Income Stacking
44:00 to 45:58
Exploration of economic factors leading to the trend of income stacking.
“Sharon, you're actually seeing this firsthand in your own household, aren't you?”
Momentum in Memory ETFs
45:58 to 48:03
Discussion on the surge of DRAM ETFs and their market impact.
“Coming up, momentum in memory, the hottest ETF since the Bitcoin boom is on a tear as investors look to cash in on memory mania.”
Analyzing ETF Action
48:03 to 49:19
Analysis of trading behaviors and implications for investors in memory stocks.
“So to Bono's point, I mean, 55 % or two different names, just buyer beware, I would say.”
Final Trades and Closing Thoughts
49:19 to 50:37
Hosts share final trades and key takeaways from the episode.
“High quality compounder with inflation linked revenue.”
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:00At Edward Jones, we believe rich isn't about having life all figured out. It's opening yourself to all the possibilities. That's why your dedicated financial advisor provides long-term planning built around you, meeting you where you are, and helping you get closer to where you want to be. So no matter where you're starting from, you can move forward with confidence. The key to being rich is knowing what counts. Let's find your rich. Edward Jones, member SIPC. Is your business achieving its current strategic goals? Are operations as tight as they should be? Are finances in a realistic place for expansion?
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1:28Tim Seymour:Gen Z taking on multiple jobs to supplement their incomes. What's behind the trend and the implications as it starts to seep into older generations? I'm Melissa Lee. Come to you live from Studio B at the NASDAQ. On the desk tonight, Tim Seymour, Steve Grasso, Guy Adami, and Bono Anaysen. But we start off with the AI trade powering markets to new heights. The S &P and NASDAQ both closing at record highs again today, notching six-week winning streaks. The AI surge in memory stocks fueling the fire. They are micron up 38 percent since Monday. its best week since the financial crisis. Sandisk up for a sixth week in a row.
2:02Tim Seymour:Intel posting its best week since the turn of the century. The Mag 7 having a strong run as well. Actually, turn of the century is not that long ago. Tesla and NVIDIA each up over 8 % since Monday. Google and Apple both gaining 4%. Investors seeming to shrug off continued uncertainty around the Iran war, but is the rest of the market keeping pace? Six Mag 7 stocks that have reported this quarter have seen earnings grow nearly 60 percent, according to LSEG. Without them, the S &P is up less than 20 percent. NVIDIA expected to have the single biggest impact on earnings growth when it reports in two weeks.
2:35Tim Seymour:So are the broader market gains, masking, trouble under the surface? Guy, what do you say? Well, the earnings growth is there. Hello. I missed. Welcome back. Did you miss me? It's nice. Were you gone? No. Just kidding. You don't ask if somebody missed. I know, right? It used to be someone to say, you know what, Tim, you make a negative symbol. Did you miss her? I did, but I was hoping for reciprocity. You were fishing. I was fishing. Anyway. I watched the network yesterday. Oh. I watched the Squawk Box. Paul Tudor Jones was on. You're familiar with PTJ. And he actually, you know, he has some reservations.
3:09But he also said that, you know what, he's along these AI stocks, and he thinks there's a lot more, not a lot more room, but he thinks there's another 25 or 30 percent. And he got a lot of it today. So despite valuations, which continue to be concerning, you look at Intel, say what you want. I mean, we'll give them maybe 30 % EPS growth. It's a stock that's going to earn maybe a buck and a half, maybe a buck and a half trading at$125. I mean, that's not 100 times, but you can do the math. So it's expensive. People say, you know what, they're making the turns. They're flipping it from GPUs to CPUs.
3:41That's important. It is important. Is it that important in terms of valuation? Well, I think it's that important if you are looking for reasons to upgrade. And again, you get back to this whole CPU to GPU ratio dynamic. Evercore has done a nice job with this. Mark Lepasso, who talked about how we might have been one to eight. We could go to eight to one. But more importantly for Intel, the company is being run very differently. It's being run with better operating margins. They've cleaned up the balance sheet. There's no question. But, you know, I mean, today's announcement, maybe an Apple deal.
4:14But on top of what you've got with NVIDIA out there, what you've got out there with the U.S. government, with Tesla, this is a story where I'm not saying you go in and chase Intel. And I have not been saying that for probably$60. But I do think there is an argument and what we're seeing. And we saw this in Korea last night. What's going on with Samsung and Hynix? And the memory names aren't expensive by forward multiples. And so I do think it is a day where if you're looking at your portfolio at home and if your top names are AMD and memory and Intel, fantastic. Your portfolio had a fantastic day.
4:51But my guess is there are a lot of people out there looking and say, hold on, son, NASDAQ was up 2.4 percent and this and that. Semis were even farther ahead of that. And there's a lot of flat out there. There's a lot of down. And I feel like on this desk this week, we've talked about retail and the struggle. And we had a fantastic payroll number today.
5:11Tim Seymour:Financials, utilities, industrials. I mean, I don't know. If you go back five years, there's a handful of names that have been carrying this market for the last five years or so. It's prevalent. But back then, NVIDIA, I think it was a lot more of a divergence back then where the other names were 6 % growth. NVIDIA was 60 % growth. So I think now if you take away those three names, it's still 12 % growth, right? Is that where it was at? It was 12 % that it doubled to 24, 27. So I do think that there's still some growth here that you can rely on. I wouldn't be a buyer of NVIDIA. I wouldn't be a buyer of Intel.
5:53So I think the names that have spiked up dramatically, Intel's a sentiment trade now. You have the U.S. government behind it. Can it go higher? Of course it can. I wouldn't feel comfortable buying it here. I was long lower. I wouldn't touch it up here. AMD, though, has the same type of a spike on a chart. But as Tim said, Lisa Su talked about 1 to 8 CPU, GPU. That could go to 1 to 1. If that goes 1 to 1, then you really have, forget about it going 8 to 1. If it goes 1 to 1, then it's a huge tailwind still for a name like AMD, who was just the second, distant second to NVIDIA.
6:29Tim Seymour:You know, Bono, we probably could have had this conversation and maybe we have had this conversation every week, every, you know, once a week for the past six weeks, because that's basically the time frame of the semiconductor rally that we've seen. But it's worth doing because at this point we now have a new narrative. I mean, that's it. You know, Ben writes this. was talking about yesterday on Closing Bill Overtime, is that the names that are participating now, the narrative has changed. And so therefore, you can get behind these names despite the huge run. You can get behind the intel because that narrative has changed compared to even six weeks ago.
7:09Tim Seymour:All of a sudden, you need CPUs. The memory narrative has changed because now there's a subscription business associated, so it's not as lumpy anymore. Would you get on board that, or are you still worried about how far this group has run? Can I meet you in the middle? I do think that the narrative in the interim has changed. So the short to intermediate term, certainly. You talk about some of the recurring revenues. I think that's always healthy when you're looking at a company from top down. There is still a cyclical nature to these companies, however. And if you're concerned about CapEx and expansion, then this still falls squarely within that.
7:47Now, we're all talking about Intel versus NVIDIA. And I think it's healthy in terms of us broadening out from like the core five or six names. But what we're seeing is still a rotation within technology versus a broadening out away from technology. And that still speaks to the concentration risk. So, yes, fine. If it's seven names now versus versus five names prior, that's that's healthier on the margin. That's, you know, positive. But what I would like to see is a broadening out. And if you look at the equal weighted S &P or even if you look at Russell today, you're seeing that underperformance.
8:23And I do think that that does start to, you know, kind of point to something that we're not seeing the expansion. We're not seeing the median S &P name still above that 200 day moving average. and have that golden cross type of narrative that we'd like to see if we were to say this is a risk on bull market next later.
8:45Tim Seymour:Okay, so I mean, that gets to the core question. I mean, is AI and the gains made specifically in the AI space papering over some underlying weakness within the markets? You could have made that case though about the MAG-7. You could have made, I mean, all along the way, we're too concentrated, we're too concentrated and you would have missed out. So should we just forget about that? Like, why should we worry about that? You could, and I probably did make that argument 20, 30, 40 percent ago, and it's been the wrong thing to do. I mean, it doesn't mean it doesn't exist, but it hasn't had any impact on the market.
9:17So I think those concerns are still there. I mean, a lot of people voice similar concerns over the last couple of weeks, but they're unfounded in terms of what it means to the broader market. Well,$300 ago on Micron, this conversation was being had. So, you know, I think this market is forcing a lot of investors and yours truly in terms of assessing where valuations are. They always matter, but we know they're not a timing mechanism. But really, find me a name within MegaCapTech. And I'm even saying$100 billion or more, maybe with the exception of the software space where you've been burned by chasing momentum in the last three years.
9:53I mean, even a Tesla, which at times there's been absolutely the wrong time to buy Tesla. But when you're talking about companies that are fundamentally and secularly in the middle of something where the growth is there, and even the hyperscalers, I know it's been disappointing for Microsoft shareholders. I know it's been a tough nine months for meta shareholders. But over the long term, I get the sense, and this is certainly where we hear from retail, they're not vacating on these down moves. They're looking to add. And I think that that's part of where we are. And I think for people that are looking at the tech trade here, and memory is the biggest test of this.
10:28I'm not sure you're going to be disappointed if you bought. And it's CapEx, right? So if CapEx starts to round over, I think that's probably the canary in the coal mine. When you start to see the investment drip or flatten out, that's the time when the trade is over.
10:45Tim Seymour:Stocks will have moved already by then. By the time you see it actually roll over, trade's done. I don't think it's a trade. Is it going? It's$700 billion. Is it going to a trillion? So right now, if I was forced to make that call, I would say you should probably exit and go to things that haven't run up as fast and exponentially. I'm surprised, actually, because you're usually the one who's willing to ride something. Yeah, I think it's been a hell of a ride. I think you have to change horses. Bono said I would get off the horse of NVIDIA. I would get on a couple of the other ones. Meantime, job growth coming in better than expected in April.
11:21Tim Seymour:nonfarm payrolls rose by 115 ,000 versus a 55 ,000 estimate. And while that suggests economic strength, consumer sentiment fell to a record low in May. The University of Michigan, which has been tracking the data since 1952, citing cost pressures from surging gas prices. Joining us for more, Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research. Jim, great to have you with us. You know, this is sort of the same conversation that we were having about the broader stock market, that AI is sort of economic data seem to be fine. Maybe it seems to be stronger than you expect. But then you see little pockets of weakness like this consumer sentiment number.
12:00Tim Seymour:And granted, normally, you know, markets don't move on consumer sentiment. But it's not just this. It's a commentary that we've heard out of corporate earnings about the consumer being stretched. I mean, Kraft Heinz saying at the end of the month, their consumers are running out of money. I mean, at what point should we start paying attention to these sort of anecdotal and sort of these softer measures as opposed to the headline data, which will paper over some of those weaknesses. It depends on who we are. If who is a politician, you should be panicked about this right now. If you're investors, maybe not yet.
12:32And what I mean by that is consumer sentiment at a 74-year low, according to University of Michigan, that is the broad measure of lots of people. But let's remember, according to Mark Zandi, that about half of all consumer spending that is done by the top 10 % of income, they're doing fine. They're spending fine. The headline numbers will continue to look good. And so they will power along all of the economic data higher, but the masses of people as expressed by the University of Michigan consumer sentiment are very unhappy. And as you pointed out, They're very unhappy about affordability. Prices are too high.
13:12There's too much inflation. There's too much accumulated inflation. What I just described is the K-shaped economy, and it's getting more K, if anything, if I could use some bad English there. And Jim, as you know, Michigan typically skews towards inflation, as you just said, which is why it is where it is. And my question to you is, you know, the Federal Reserve finds themselves in a really awkward position, I think. I don't think they have a rate cut. I saw Steve Leesman today price in until September of 2027. And there's just as much chance now the rate hike as a rate cut. I mean, does it even matter at this point?
13:44Well, it matters for the president because he's getting his new guy next week. Jay Powell's terms up one week from today and Warsh is going to come in and there's high expectations from the president. He's going to be cutting rates. And I don't think, Jay, Kevin Warsh, not only can he make an argument to cut rates, I don't think he even has the votes at this point. He's got to get six other people on that committee to vote with him to cut rates. So the Fed is on hold right now. But let's remember two months ago when the war started, we were pricing in two or three rate cuts. If this war continues to drag on and prices go up, there's an argument to be made by the middle end of the summer.
14:19We could be talking about rate hikes at that point. You know, if the war ends and things settle down, then that'll go away. So we are moving in that direction towards rate hikes right now. But you're right. Rate cuts are off the board for a long time. Jim, Tim, switching gears a little bit. Once again, we got right up to that 445 level in the 10-year and didn't break higher. We've talked often with you about the dynamics around the deficit, around refunding, and some of these periods where we get the TRA, and sometimes it matters, sometimes it does not. Bad English on my own here, sorry. Where are you on this?
14:56I realized today was a day where the 10-year liked kind of what the payroll number taught us. Are we just missing this move higher in rates it's about to hit? Yeah, you know, for the last several years, I've argued that the low in rate, probably the low for a decade or two, was August 2020, 50 basis points. That's not a hard call. It was 50 basis points. It can be harder to get lower than that. And I also don't think that the rate hike or the rate rise, I'm talking about the 10-year yield, ended when it went over 5 % in October of 23. I still think we're going to go higher than that, maybe over the next year or so.
15:29The last couple of years, you're right, the 10-year yield has been for something. So it hasn't proven me right, and it really hasn't proven me wrong. It's just kind of been sitting there sideways. I think what we're going to see is we're going to finally see that move higher. And the reason is the economy is doing well. You guys were talking in the previous segment about earnings, about the stock market. We had a decent payroll report today. The economy is doing well. We're just creating more inflation. And if you're creating more inflation with the economy doing well, then the path for yields, bond yields, is going to be higher.
16:03And I think we're probably going to see that 5 % yield in the next year. Now that I've said that, I don't think it's a problem. I don't think that if we see the 5 % yield, yeah, people in real estate business won't like it. But it's not going to be a drag on the economy because that's the natural rate that it should be doing is going up.
16:20Tim Seymour:Jim, good to see you. Thanks, Jim Bianco, Bianco Research. You think we see 5? I mean, it's obviously possible in this. Anything's possible in a spike. I just don't know. With the supply issue that you're having, supply shock, there's nothing that the Fed can possibly do in its toolbox to handle a supply shock issue. you. If they do, they just make it harder. So Jim said 50 % of the population is buying the goods and services right now. The bottom 50 are not. So now they have a supply shock with gasoline at the pump, and then everything that they do to buy their livelihood is on an interest rate or on a card, or they don't have a house.
17:03So everything becomes more, less affordable for the bottom income earners if rates go up. So I understand what everyone's thinking about that we can't possibly have a rate cut, but I'm just not sure who it really helps, but I know who it hurts. It hurts the bottom income earners if rates stay where they are. I don't think, I mean, listen, I don't think they're going to move. I think the right move is to do no move at all. And I think he, Kevin is probably smart enough. And as Jim mentioned, he's got to get people to sign on anyway, either way, and you're not going to do it as the most divided fed in history.
17:35But I will say to Jim's point, I do think rates go higher. What the market's going to come to grips with is rates going higher because things are getting better or because there's a debt problem. And that's the rub. Right now, the market's saying higher rates are OK because there's growth. I think there's, you know, back to both rates and consumer and where the market is and even jobs. I mean, I look at Home Depot and Lowe's and I say I think there's an opportunity there. I know we've talked about the consumer being out of some powder here. I think sentiment has gone far past where the fundamentals are.
18:07And I think those are names that are worth looking at here.
18:09Tim Seymour:All right, let's get the latest developments out of Washington on the Iran war. Let's get to Megan Casella at the White House. Megan. Melissa, a somewhat quieter day here as the United States awaits Iran's response to its latest peace proposal. That was that one-page, 14-point memo to end the war that Iran said earlier this week that it was evaluating. Now, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said this morning that the U.S. had been expecting a response today. But as of now, no word yet here that that's been received. In the meantime, the fragile ceasefire that's been in place for a month now appears to remain in place.
18:39That's despite the U.S. and Iran exchanging attacks for the second straight day today. The U.S. military saying this morning it had struck two Iranian oil tankers in the Gulf. That's what you're seeing footage of here. It was a step that U.S. officials said was necessary to enforce the blockade on vessels entering or leaving Iran. And those attacks came after the two sides exchanged fire also on Thursday, each claiming at the time that the other side fired first. President Trump, though, said the ceasefire was intact and downplayed those attacks, describing them as just a love tap. Melissa said it may be exceedingly fragile at this point, but the ceasefire is still in place.
19:13Tim Seymour:Strange thing to call a love tap. When I hit a guy with a love tap, it's just not close. It's almost not surprising, Megan, that the bar for violating the ceasefire would be so high, given the Xi-Trump summit next week. I mean, that ceasefire has to hold for that summit to take place. And both sides, particularly, you know, our side, really wants that summit to take place. Absolutely. The president does not want to have to postpone that meeting again. He already did it once because of this war. And he also does not want to go into it with a weaker hand. And he thinks the war ongoing would give him something of a weaker hand.
19:48He wants to go in with as much leverage as he can with President Xi. He wants to be focused on that meeting. Some of our colleagues in China today were reporting that while the president and the U.S. wants to really focus on trade, Iran is going to be undercutting that because, of course, it has to be a major topic. So at least the U.S. wants to do as much as they can to try to minimize it and not make it front of mind. Clearly, the bar for what will amount to a violation of the ceasefire is pretty high at this point. It was sort of remarkable to hear U.S. officials multiple times this week lay out the number of attacks that Iran has made since the ceasefire began, but then still say none of that rose to the level of restarting military operations.
20:24It's not clear at this point what would rise to that level since we have seen fire exchange back and forth. We just have to assume, I guess, that it's higher than we thought it was and that that bar is likely to stay high in the near term, at least.
20:36Tim Seymour:Right. Megan, thanks. Megan Casella. And that bar being high has enabled the markets to climb to new highs, right? I mean, that's part of it. It's like, OK, so that's not a violation. That's not a violation. That's not a violation. We're in a good place here. On that front, I mean, we've learned how to deal with$100 oil. The market doesn't seem to care about that. Geopolitical is not a big deal. The meeting, I think, is a big deal. And what comes out of the meeting, and is Taiwan some sort of bargaining chip that either side tries to use? That, to me, is the rub going into this meeting. Coming up, Apple ripening to record.
21:08Tim Seymour:The stock climbing to all-time highs as the company reportedly taps a new chip maker. What the latest partnership could mean for the iPhone maker next. Plus, gold's glittering gains of precious metal rebounding this week and taking miners along for the ride will debate how to play the pop. Straight ahead. Don't go anywhere. Fast Money's back in two. This is Fast Money with Melissa Lee right here on CNBC.
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22:53Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. Apple rising 2 % to all-time highs on reports that the company struck a preliminary deal for Intel to manufacture chips to power its devices. Up until now, Apple had relied on Taiwan Semi to produce all of its chips. Apple up nearly 5 % since Monday, its best week since February. It is now up seven weeks in a row, its longest streak since 2023. Bonoan, has Apple awoken? I think it has. You know, they were definitely laggards into that massive upward AI trajectory. And we kind of batted around whether or not it was smart or thinking on their part or whether or not they were behind the ball.
23:31Well, after what we saw from Meadow, it seems that investors are willing to reward companies that have shown capital discipline. That company with the service growth, I think, puts Apple squarely back at the top of the investor list. In terms of the news today around this preliminary deal with Intel, I think this is smart broadening in terms of their supply chain constraints. And we're talking about the China summit coming up next week. Well, if there is anything, any wobble there whatsoever, you're seeing a company proactively look to onshore and diversify away. So I think it's a net positive.
24:04Tim Seymour:Yeah, Grasser. Yeah, I agree. I think to sub out all these things is a huge advantage for them. They don't have the spend, as Bono had said. And early losers, late winners, I think that's what you're looking at with Apple, where they just don't have to. They didn't have to have the deep pockets, although they do. So they have the capability of pivoting whenever they want. Although it's unclear what chips Intel would make or what chips Intel would be capable of making in terms of capacity to make the chips. But right now, details don't matter in today's world. You get headlines and you go with them.
24:35I mean, I'm not going to pretend I'm in bullish in Apple. I have not. Tim has. But on April 20th, when it was announced Tim Cook was stepping down, we said, you know what, 10 days before earnings, it probably augurs well for the stock. And here we are. The question is, is this sort of a new range? The prior all-time high, I think, 284 back in December. Do we go back and test that, which is not far away? But clearly the market likes what they're hearing right now. Is it expensive at this point? On multiple? Yeah. Yeah, but I'm not sure it matters. I know that sounds crazy. But again, there's nothing in the last report that we heard that also doesn't hear that they're not totally in charge of the manufacturing at a time when memory.
25:12So again, I'm just going to echo the same thing. This is about flexibility. This is about controlling the supply chain, keeping it in here, especially when Taiwan on semi, if that's ever a problem, it's a big problem. Right now, it helps. And playing nice with Trump and the administration, right?
25:27Tim Seymour:I mean, smart to. Right. The administration bought Intel at 20 bucks a share. So good trade. Yeah, good trade. Nice trade. A lot more fast money to come. Here's what's coming up next. A rally worth its weight in gold. What's driving the precious metals latest rebound? And is it ready for a breakout to new highs? Plus, big shots head to Beijing. We set the table for next week's Trump-Xi summit and what investigators can expect to hear from the lineup of CEOs in tow. You're watching Fast Money, live from the NASDAQ market side in Times Square. We're back right after this.
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27:41Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. Apple rising 2 % to all-time highs on reports that the company struck a preliminary deal for Intel to manufacture chips to power its devices. Up until now, Apple had relied on Taiwan Semi to produce all of its chips. Apple up nearly 5 % since Monday. Its best week since February. It is now up seven weeks in a row. Its longest streak since 2023. Bonwin, has Apple awoken? I think it has. You know, they were definitely laggards into that massive upward AI trajectory. And we kind of batted around whether or not it was smart or thinking on their part or whether or not they were behind the ball.
28:20Well, after what we saw from Meadow, it seems that investors are willing to reward companies that have shown capital discipline. That company with the service growth, I think, puts Apple squarely back at the top of the investor list. In terms of the news today around this preliminary deal with Intel, I think this is smart broadening in terms of their supply chain constraints. And we're talking about the China summit coming up next week. Well, if there is anything, any wobble there whatsoever, you're seeing a company proactively look to onshore and diversify ways. So I think it's a net positive.
28:52Tim Seymour:Yeah, Grasso. Yeah, I agree. I think to sub out all these things is a huge advantage for them. They don't have the spend, as Bono said. And early losers, late winners, I think that's what you're looking at with Apple, where they just don't have to, they didn't have to have the deep pockets, although they do. So they have the capability of pivoting whatever they want. Although it's unclear what chips Intel would make or what chips Intel would be capable of making in terms of capacity to make the chips. But right now, details don't matter in today's world. You get headlines and you go with them.
29:24I mean, I'm not going to pretend I'm in bullish on Apple. I have not. Tim has. But on April 20th, when it was announced Tim Cook was stepping down, we said, you know what, 10 days before earnings, it probably augurs well for the stock. And here we are. The question is, is this sort of a new range? The prior all-time high, I think, 284 back in December. Do we go back and test that, which is not far away? But clearly the market likes what they're hearing right now. Is it expensive at this point? On multiple? Yeah. Yeah, but I'm not sure it matters. I know that sounds crazy. But again, there's nothing in the last report that we heard that also doesn't hear that they're not totally in charge of the manufacturing at a time when memory.
30:00So, again, I'm just going to echo the same thing. This is about flexibility. This is about controlling the supply chain, keeping it in here, especially when Taiwan semi, if that's ever a problem, it's a big problem. Right now, it helps. And playing nice with Trump and the administration.
30:15Tim Seymour:Right? I mean, smart to. Right. The administration bought Intel at 20 bucks a share. So good trade. Yeah. Good trade. Nice trade. A lot more Fast Money to come. Here's what's coming up next. A rally worth its weight. In gold? What's driving the precious metals' latest rebound? And is it ready for a breakout to new highs? Plus, big shots head to Beijing. We set the table for next week's Trump-Xi summit and what investigators can expect to hear from the lineup of CEOs in tow. You're watching Fast Money, live from the NASDAQ market side in Times Square. We're back right after this.
30:59Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. Gold starting to shine again this week. The precious metal running a four-day winning streak on hopes of a U.S.-Iran peace deal and a weakening dollar. Gold is still down nearly 10 percent since the beginning of the war and more than 15 percent off its all-time high. So is now the time to jump back in. Did you jump out? I think you've always been in. I did not jump out. I do think this is an opportunity for the gold miners. And we're actually in earning season and we're getting actually pretty good numbers. What we're hearing in terms of their operational leverage is that right now, the inflationary aspects that were really hurting them back in 22, 23 and needed to wane before you had this breakout and this outperformance of gold miners, I think is under control here.
31:39So AEM formerly, I think, was in Guy's tube. Yeah, clam, Tim. Your clam sounds painful.
31:46Tim Seymour:How do you spell tube, Tim? No A in there. Of course not. Sorry. Just wanted to say it, I guess. But I like miners here. Let's be clear. I understand this has been a risk on trade for many people. That's not my view here. My view here is I want to own gold miners long term. I agree with that. I mean, if you look, GDX sold off correctly in April like the commodity, but it's actually traded OK since in a gold market. It's been sort of flat to maybe slightly higher. So if gold were to stay at this price in perpetuity, which it won't. But if it were, I think gold miners are screaming by here. Miners usually outperform in a case three to one.
32:22And we haven't seen that recently. And they're all sort of stacked up on top of each other. You have GLD, GDX, and the junior miners all trading up around the same amount. If you think gold is going higher, I would just go for the real beta and go for the junior miners as well.
32:39Tim Seymour:Coming up, approaching the summit, The countdown is on to next week's Trump-Xi sit-down in Beijing from the Midwest-Mideast war to trade the rare earths. And we will talk all the key issues on the docket next. More Fast Money right after this. Missed a moment of fast? Catch us anytime on the go. Follow the Fast Money podcast. We're back right after this.
33:11Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money Stocks, ending the week on a high note following the better-than-expected April jobs report, the Dow eking out a gain of 12 points. Both the S &P and Nasdaq is setting records with the tech-heavy index gaining 1.7 percent. Dow surging 13 percent after President Trump said at a press conference earlier today to, quote, go out and buy a Dow. That coming after he thanked Michael and Susan Dow for their$6 billion donation to his Trump accounts initiative. Tesla charging 4 percent higher, bringing its gains for the week to nearly 10 percent. The stock now sitting at three-month highs.
33:43Tim Seymour:Cybersecurity and cloud company Akamai jumping more than 26 percent. The company said a leading U.S.-based frontier model provider has committed to invest$1.8 billion over seven years to its cloud infrastructure services. And Moderna surging 12 percent. The company said it is researching vaccines to protect against Hantaviruses after several infections and three deaths were reported aboard a cruise ship earlier this week. In the meantime, President Trump is set to travel to China next week to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in what would be the first U.S. presidential visit since 2017. The CEOs of Boeing, Citigroup, NVIDIA and more are expected to join the trip.
34:19Tim Seymour:With the Iran war expected to dominate the visit, our next guest says China could be in a better negotiating position than the U.S. Dennis Unkovich joins us now. He's a partner in Meyer, Unkovich and Scott. Dennis, great to have you with us. Thanks for having me back, Melissa. You've actually got a few different reasons why China could be in the driver's seat next week. What is the number one, though, in your view? We have what are called rare earth elements or rare earth minerals. And you just today had a great stock market where everything, all the tech stocks were up. They're all dependent on these rare earth minerals.
34:54The one thing that China has over the head of the United States is that they refine 80 % to 90 % of these rare earth elements. Now, they're not really rare earth. You can get them in Africa. China has half of them. We have them in the U.S. But right now, China sees in pain could say, unless you do what I want, I can restrict the amount of rare earth minerals that are coming to these companies. And I think that's the one card, whether he'll play it or not, Melissa, I don't know. But that's the one thing that the Chinese have over the Trump administration next week.
35:29Tim Seymour:They've had this bargaining chip forever, Dennis. I mean, I'm sort of exaggerating, but they've always had this sort of advantage in terms of rare earths. Would there be any reason why now they would play that card? Their economy is really being hurt by the war in the Middle East. Fifty to sixty percent of the oil and about a third of the natural gas that they have comes through there. And one thing that China does have, they have the largest strategic oil reserve in the world. It's about 1.4 billion barrels, which is about three times what the U.S. has. But nevertheless, they really do need that energy.
36:05And I think if China was ever going to play the card, this would be the time to put it to the U.S. Dennis, China always plays the long game. And my sense is that there's a the greatest objective here is is call it tech, Internet superiority, certainly the digital world. What do you think they want to try to get out of the medium term here? Because, again, we all understand what the headlines are going to look like going into this meeting. But we know what's been on the table for the last, call it, two years. The medium term is that the U.S. should not unreasonably restrict the Chinese ability to develop their own technologies.
36:42In a book I wrote a couple of years ago, I talked about a two-technology world. About two-thirds of the technology globally now is from the West, generally the West. The Chinese have a third. Xi Jinping has done one thing since he came in in 2013. He has wanted to build up the ability to innovate technology in China, and that's what he's going to continue to do. And I think that they will not—I don't think they're going to pull this big card on the U.S. now, but it has to be in the back of their minds. But unless they can get more oil and not deplete their reserves, and secondly, that their technologies are not going to be blocked by the U.S., I think the Chinese really can play the hard game here.
37:21Dennis, has Taiwan come up in these conversations? That's my number two. The answer is yes. Xi Jinping has been obsessed with Taiwan. Taiwan has 24 million people. I've been there. It's a small country. But it is a thing that China says we want it to be part of China. Now, the U.S. government has said there is one China, but we think they have the right to have a different government. I think that because of the U.S. going into the Straits and what's going on in Iran, this is an excuse for the Chinese to go to the South China Sea and to make more aggressive moves against Taiwan. And the Philippines are right down below there.
38:03So it's sort of like the U.S. went in and said, OK, this is what we're going to do. We're taking this policy. The Chinese are going to say, why can't we do this in the South China Sea? And that's going to be the next big problem.
38:14Tim Seymour:Well, I mean, it's, you know, there's an article, I think, in The Wall Street Journal citing Chinese military analysts, you know, that now would be the perfect time for China to actually seize Taiwan because our weaponry, our resources are depleted at this point. They're being sent to the Middle East and we have to rebuild stockpiles. I mean, do you think that could happen or is China too interested in sort of being the elder statesman on the world stage and not engaging in that sort of conflict? Two answers. I think Xi Jinping is continually obsessed with taking over Taiwan. Secondly, we have a blue ocean navy where we can project power all over.
38:54But with the amount of strategic arms that we have depleted, in a good way, I guess, in Iran, if the Chinese were seeing, is the U.S. going to be weak? Will they be able to stand up strongly in the Far East and the South China Sea as they were before? My answer is they're going to be much more confident now than they were before. Finally, they said by 20, 22 years from now, 2027 or 2028, we're really going to look at Taiwan. If I'm Xi Jinping, I'm going to say, maybe I can move that up just a little bit. Very good question. Thank you.
39:29Tim Seymour:Yeah. Dennis, great to speak with you. Thank you for the analysis. Thanks for having me. We've been talking about Taiwan for a long time. Maybe now the stars have aligned in the sense that we are not in the position to have a new conflict elsewhere right now. It's been one of my concerns for three years, but in terms of the market, it's been completely unfounded. There's no reason to be concerned about it through the lens of the market. Now, I don't think it means it's gotten any better. In some ways, it's gotten worse. And I guarantee it comes up in one way, shape, or form. And maybe given what's going on, it becomes a chip that the Chinese play.
40:01And I don't think that's particularly market bullish.
40:04Tim Seymour:Speaking of chip, though, I mean, Taiwan Semi is so crucial to the AI build out here. If China owned, when I say own, if they took over Taiwan in some way and Taiwan Semi fell under their purview more completely than it may already be, that is trouble. Well, it's a big problem. And I know that we have to be really careful about thoughts that say, hey, why do we care so much about Taiwan? Well, we care about it from a sovereignty perspective, period, and respecting that. But there have been a lot of places in the world and a lot of lines that have been blurred of late. And my guess is there are probably a fair amount of people in this country that don't think it's as big of a deal as other people in this country do.
40:49Taiwan Semi, however, is critical to U.S. strategic interests. And again, we just talked about Apple and Intel and why that gets Apple in a much better place if they have some other place to go other than Taiwan Semi.
41:02Tim Seymour:Bono, and your thoughts? Yeah, I think it's critical. I don't disagree in the least. I am not as concerned that this is actually going to escalate to that point. But in terms of posturing and negotiations, I do think that we could have been in a stronger position. And China will probably find some way to insert that nuance. I just want to share with some people the prowess of Melissa Lee and just sort of the depth of her knowledge. OK, we're breaking some news here on Fast Money. OG Ananobi will not be playing in game three. Mel said two hours ago, there's no way OG should be playing tonight. Yeah, it's incredible.
41:40We were going to open the show with her analysis of that. Well, now you have it. I'm glad we got to it eventually.
41:47Tim Seymour:I try and keep that on the, you know, quiet. Yeah. Coming up, I don't even know who this person is. A Rosie Jobs report may have boosted stocks today, but a rise in second jobs among younger generations could be telling a different story about the labor market. all the details on income stacking when Fast Money returns.
42:11Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. The U.S. economy added more than twice as many jobs as expected in April, nonfarm payrolls growing by 115 ,000, but full-time jobs hit the lowest level since December 2024, and the number of Americans working multiple jobs is on the rise. CNBC's Sharon Epperson joins us to discuss the trend and its implications. Sharon. Well, Melissa, you know, there are layoff fears. There's the inflation squeeze, changes in the labor department. All of these factors are behind the desire to create more than one income stream of household income. Relying on what's known as income stacking or holding multiple jobs has become a growing trend since hitting a low in 2020.
42:52In April, there were about 8.4 million people in the U.S. working more than one job, representing 5.2 % of the workforce. About two-thirds of Gen Z workers ages 14 to 29 surveyed last year cited having multiple ways of earning money as essential for achieving financial security. It's also easier to start a side hustle these days with platforms like DoorDash and Uber for delivery, Fiverr and Upwork for freelancing, and TaskRabbit for odd jobs. More people are also earning income as social media influencers. Meanwhile, economists are closely watching the share of multiple job holders and wage growth to determine whether this trend is a sign of increased demand for workers or consumers facing so much financial stress they need greater income.
43:42And you might want to take a look at my special May issue of the Money 101 newsletter. It's out today. You can also sign up for the eight-week series and monthly additions to help you manage, grow, and protect your income using the QR code right there or go to cnbc.com slash money101.
44:00Tim Seymour:Sharon, you're actually seeing this firsthand in your own household, aren't you? I mean, your son is an income stacker. He's one of these younger guys who needs multiple sources of income. I saw this word. I saw this word. I said, this is Dylan Farley. He is a registered behavior technician. He has a hip hop business that he's trying to do, concert promotions, concert programming. He tutors in Mandarin. He also is trying to sell vinyls from his apartment, whatever works to pay the rent. But they do need to have multiple incomes. It's expensive to live in Harlem. It's expensive to buy groceries these days.
44:35And I think Gen Z, he's 24, are among those who are really looking at ways to do this. Someone did tell me, though, Melissa, isn't this just what we used to call moonlighting? I don't know. But I like income stacking better.
44:48Tim Seymour:That sounds a little more official. My kids need a tutor, Sharon, so I might contact you later. Sharon Everson. Can you imagine that? He's right there. I'm surprised people would see when they've got a leaky pipe, they get on TaskRabbit and Guy Adami shows up. You know, you dox me, but it's true. I do show up with my tool belt. Yeah. Not a lot else. Anyway.
45:17Tim Seymour:This weren't Friday. I mean, that was a big laugh. Because he doesn't do this on Monday. Never on Monday, but never Monday through Thursday. But this really shows you sort of what is going on in the economy in terms of what jobs are available and how expensive things are that people feel the need that they need to do this in order to make ends meet. And where are the places that they're going to be cutting back? Boy, this was the week, you know, whether it was Shake Shack, whether it was McDonald's. I mean, this was a week where we heard restaurants, especially in the line of fire in the bottom part of the K economy.
45:51Not necessarily Shake Shack, but I think this is something we're watching and I'm not sure these charts get a lot better. All right.
45:58Tim Seymour:Coming up, momentum in memory, the hottest ETF since the Bitcoin boom is on a tear as investors look to cash in on memory mania. Why traders can't get enough of this global chip play. Next, more Fast Money in tune.
46:16Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. Roundhill's DRAM digital memory ETF taking the market by storm, nearly doubling since its debut just over a month ago. It's also attracting options traders who want to get their hands on a few names they otherwise couldn't. Oliver Rennick is on the CBO floor in Chicago with more on the action. Hey, Oliver. Hey, Melissa. DRAM did effectively open the floodgates for tech bulls to trade a handful of the hottest international names that had until now eluded them. Two of DRAM's 13 holdings, Samsung and SK Hynix, make up more than half the entire strategy, and both stocks more than doubled this year.
46:52So it's no surprise DRAM is hot and competing for records with some of the biggest ETF launches in history. It took just 10 days for DRAM to cross$1 billion in assets, the seventh fastest debut in history alongside a handful of world-famous funds. Giving it an extra boost is indeed those options. The Korean stocks that everyone wants a piece of did not have ADRs. So until now, options traders had no way to trade them. The result is DRAM today did 75 percent of the volume of the incredibly popular SMH for a total over 100 million dollars of premium with four times more calls than puts. And it's just in from the Roundhill team after the close.
47:34Now, six point six billion dollars under management, Melissa. Wow.
47:39Tim Seymour:What a climb. Oliver, thanks. Oliver Rennick at SIBO. Bonham, what do you make of this action? Well, you can't find the momentum, and I'm not going to try to, but I will point out the 50 % concentration in two names is somewhat concerning. And this can easily roll over as quickly as it soar to the upside. So I would just keep that in mind if you're going to chase here. You would think Micron would be much bigger. I think Micron is only 4 % or 5 % of this thing. At SanDisk, 4 % or 5 % as well. So to Bono's point, I mean, 55 % or two different names, just buyer beware, I would say. Yeah. Well, the Korea dynamic's important.
48:16Now, you could go out and, you know, I own the EWY, which is also 50 percent Hynix and Samsung. Samsung, which now is only trading at about five and a half times next year. In other words, I still think it's wildly cheap. So, I mean, yeah, DRAM as, you know, buying that ETF. But I mean, we I don't know, we spent the first part of this show talking about why I'm I said why I don't know that memory names are turning around overnight. So I get why they're seeing that kind of an interest. Also, when Micron goes up 100 % in a month, it explains to you how the AUM in an ETF that tracks that can move very quickly.
48:49And you want something that's a direct play, that doesn't have a lot of noise around it, and you're going to use it as a hedging product. And it's something where if you just buy the Cosby, you're getting a lot of other noise and a lot of other stocks and a lot of the consumer names that you really don't want. This is a direct play.
49:03Tim Seymour:Up next, Final Trades.
49:18Tim Seymour:Final trade time. Badawan. MasterCard. High quality compounder with inflation linked revenue. Timbo. Good luck with the tool belt this weekend. Clearly the K-Web is starting to take the hammer to things. I think you're getting a breakout. China. Steve. See what he did there? Hammer. A couple of CEOs are going with President Trump to visit Xi next week, and one of them is Boeing CEO. I think there's going to be probably some good headlines coming out of that meeting. Boeing. Happy Mother's Day. Oh, yes. Happy Mother's Day. Yes. If you need a plumber, you know where to get me. Qualcomm, Melms. Guy in his tool belt.
49:58Thanks for watching Fast Money.
50:00Tim Seymour:Have a great weekend. Mad Money at Jim Carrey Research right now.
50:06All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet, or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such.
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From the publisher
Stocks hitting fresh record highs, and notching a sixth straight week of gains, but could there be some trouble brewing under the surface? How stocks are holding up this earnings season when the Mag7 aren’t carrying the weight, and if the lagging sectors can keep up with the AI & tech trade. Plus Intel surges after an Apple deal, the strong memory for one ETF that’s attracting lots of options activity, and what to expect out of President Trump’s meeting next week with China’s Xi Jinping.
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