In short
Fast Money episode covering (1) Mag 7 stock momentum—Tesla’s AI chip news and Microsoft’s potential software/earnings bounce—plus broader market rotation; (2) U.S.-China-Iran tensions after China criticizes the Strait of Hormuz blockade and Trump claims China agreed not to send weapons; (3) market impacts from ASML’s China export restrictions; (4) fertilizer price shock to U.S. farmers; (5) critical minerals/rare earth financing via royalties; (6) meme-stock style surge after Allbirds’ “AI pivot.”
Guests
David Riedel (Riedel Research), China/EM expert; Brian Pace Fraga (Metals Royalty Company), critical minerals/royalty finance CEO.
Key claims
Tesla up on A15 inference chip for full self-driving; Microsoft bounce possible after “software” underperformance and Copilot uptake remains tiny (about $15M vs 480M seats). China is frustrated and positions itself as stable partner; Strait closure hits China’s oil (China buys ~90% of Iran oil exports). ASML beats guidance but China sales drop due to export controls. Fertilizer costs jump (example: $139/acre to $217/acre) and may reduce yields. Metals Royalty argues U.S. mineral sovereignty needs alternative finance (royalties/streams) since permitting averages 29 years in the U.S. vs 15–20 elsewhere.
Notable examples
India cooking-gas cylinder panic buying; Target bullish note; Bank of America record EPS; Live Nation/Ticketmaster antitrust remedy uncertainty; Allbirds stock +582% on AI pivot.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Chapters
Tap a time to open that second in VOTesla and Microsoft: Recent Performances
1:43 to 3:54
Discussion on the recent performance of Tesla and Microsoft stocks.
“Tesla and Microsoft both seeing their best days and pacing for their best weeks of 2026.”
Market Trends and Software Sector Insights
3:54 to 6:13
Insights into market trends and implications for the software sector.
“I mean, it's sort of an interesting tell maybe on the markets in terms of where the markets are gravitating towards.”
Concerns Over Economic Indicators
6:13 to 9:10
Discussion on economic indicators and market resilience amidst global tensions.
“Another name I think you want to stay with.”
China's Role in Global Oil Supply
9:10 to 14:02
Exploration of China's position in the global oil market and recent geopolitical tensions.
“on top of which of exit 18, which has been the low we've seen over this last six to nine months.”
China's Economic Resilience Amidst Global Tensions
14:02 to 16:20
Explore China's economic strategies and vulnerabilities in a global recession.
“But I think Iran's burned a lot of bridges in the region.”
Investment Insights on Chinese Tech Stocks
16:20 to 17:26
Discussion on investment strategies for major Chinese tech companies amidst market volatility.
“If you're looking at making cap China tech while we're having, you know, we just talked about a renaissance.”
Market Reactions to ASML's Earnings Report
17:26 to 18:20
Analysis of ASML's performance and market challenges following earnings report.
“In fact, you're actually, you know, you've bounced a little bit at a key support level.”
Market Trends and Projections in Semiconductors
18:20 to 19:15
Insights into semiconductor market trends and future projections for major players.
“Why one trader says the company is having its micron moment.”
Market Trends and Projections in Semiconductors
19:19 to 21:02
Insights into semiconductor market trends and future projections for major players.
“Never bet against American grit or American energy.”
Target's Market Performance and Future Outlook
22:59 to 24:16
Review of Target's stock performance and expectations from analysts.
“I mean, you know, we're all talking about the same chain of right of demand.”
Show all 19 chapters
Consumer Trends Impacting Retail Stocks
24:16 to 24:53
Exploration of consumer spending trends and their effects on retail stock performance.
“live from the NASDAQ market side in Times Square.”
Consumer Trends Impacting Retail Stocks
24:57 to 28:00
Exploration of consumer spending trends and their effects on retail stock performance.
“We think about what can be done, not what's usually done.”
Consumer Spending and Retail Dynamics
28:00 to 31:00
Discussion on the shifting consumer spending patterns and their impacts on retail.
“Valuation's never been a concern, but the entire way down, you can make a case.”
Impact of Rising Fertilizer Costs on Farmers
31:00 to 36:23
Analysis of how increased fertilizer prices affect farmers' strategies and financial health.
“We're just going to break because it's just too much.”
Critical Minerals and U.S. Supply Chain
36:23 to 42:00
Exploration of the importance of critical minerals and their role in the U.S. economy.
“It's going to be every step of the process, right?”
U.S. Mineral Supply Chain Dynamics
42:00 to 44:34
Explore the changing dynamics of the U.S. mineral supply chain and the implications of recent geopolitical events.
“WTI was a premium to Brent Crude for the first time in at least my lifetime.”
Allbirds' Bold AI Pivot
44:34 to 46:35
Discussion on Allbirds' surprising shift from sneakers to AI computing infrastructure and its market implications.
“And what is next after today's massive stock pop?”
Market Reactions and Absurdities
46:35 to 47:55
Analyzing the market's reaction to Allbirds' pivot and the resurgence of meme stocks.
“Look, there's been a lot of FOMO and euphoria over the last few days in the market.”
Market Reactions and Absurdities
48:39 to 49:56
Analyzing the market's reaction to Allbirds' pivot and the resurgence of meme stocks.
“to severe obstructive sleep apnea, OSA, and adults with obesity.”
Transcript
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1:28Tim Seymour:get some love on Wall Street and tracking the gains in copper prices. We'll talk to one critical mineral CEO about the metal moves and the impact on the U.S. economy. I'm Melissa Lee. Come to you live in studio. Be at the NASDAQ. On the desk tonight, Tim Steymour, Karen Feinerman, Guy Adami, and Julie Beal. We start off with two dogs of the Mag 7 finally having their day. Tesla and Microsoft both seeing their best days and pacing for their best weeks of 2026. Let's start off with Elon Musk's auto slash AI slash robotics company. Tesla riding a five-day winning streak up more than 14 % in that time.
2:01Tim Seymour:Today's leg higher coming after Musk overnight unveiled Tesla's A15 AI chip, a next-generation inference chip designed for full self-driving. Musk also saying that work is underway in the next next-gen chip, as well as a new AI model training initiative. So does the recent action of this name show that the Mag 7's second-worst performer this year is back on track? Guy, what do you think? I think, yeah, I absolutely think so. I mean, we've seen drawdowns and rallies in Tesla like this many times over the last few years. I don't think it's anything out of the norm. I'll say quickly about Microsoft.
2:35That's the one I think you want to hone in on. And I think finally, for the first time in a while, although it didn't get down to last April's low, it might have gotten close enough. Reports on April 29th. This is one that inline slightly better. And I think this stock is sort of on a hair trigger to do a lot better. I also think, and we thought this a few weeks ago, maybe incorrectly, but the IGV might have put in a short term bottom as well. So I think Microsoft in earnings becomes very interesting.
3:00Karen Finerman:Yeah, I think Tesla tends to kind of trade in its own little lane. And so the fact that people are focusing in on robotics and driverless and all the things that really have always been the reason to outperform, not a big surprise. I think back to Microsoft, this is of called it the Mag 6 that I think has been the most obviously disappointing. but the one where there's really more existential risk than anybody else. We're starting to wonder, are they the biggest software company in the world? But I do think the fact that they may be pushing out with their own frontier model, that they, too, could be doing a lot in-house, who really knows?
3:33Karen Finerman:I think it gets back to a valuation story. So when this thing got down to 21 and a half times forward, I think, you know, I think that's where it got really interesting.
3:41Tim Seymour:From a barter perspective, though, when you take a look at the Nasdaq going to new highs, the S &P going to new highs, and you see the laggards on the MAG-7 on heavy volume today, move higher, but the rest of the MAG7 moving higher, but not on heavy volume. I mean, it's sort of an interesting tell maybe on the markets in terms of where the markets are gravitating towards. You want the old plays, but you want the areas where you might get a flyer on a catch-up trade. A momentum trade. Yeah, maybe. Or a FOMO trade. Or a FOMO trade, yes. I mean, I think Microsoft, I think, of the underperformance was the software part of their business, right?
4:15So that if we've seen a bottom, and we may have in the software trade. It's not surprising then that Microsoft would bounce off of that. I mean, it's just, I mean, it's a huge, giant market cap stock like all the Meg7. I looked at Microsoft, what's their beta? Not shockingly, one, 1.00. So to the extent that the market rebounded sharply, Microsoft then did as well. I don't want to switch to the ones that have underperformed a little bit because I like the ones that I own and they're not going to trade exactly what they're worth, But over time, I don't want to trade around it and miss something big.
4:51Tim Seymour:Yeah. Julie, what's your take on the move today? Yeah, I do think that there's an element of mean reversion that's happening where people want to find the things that are a little bit beaten down. And those are the things that they've been chasing. We've been seeing a lot of that behavior, not just in the mag seven, but in the broader market where, you know, the dogs really get bought very, very quickly before there's any kind of fundamental news that moves them. I think Microsoft is particularly interesting because at the end of the day, if you think of their products, their core products, they are wildly disappointing, right?
5:24Excel is still a frustration. Outlook can't find my emails. And yet it's what we all continue to use. So the level of lock-in that they have is substantial. And I think that that's something that allows them to leverage AI in a pretty meaningful way.
5:38Tim Seymour:If they can get people to pay for Copilot, which has not panned out so far. I mean, what was the last number? It was$15 million. Right. 15, 1.5 out of 480 million seats. So ridiculous. And I've made the point now, whether it stands to be correct or not, we'll see. But if the unemployment rate, which in my opinion is going to sort of trend higher, Microsoft doesn't win to that. But what I will say is I think this recent downturn probably prices that and a little more in. So, you know, you want, Tim said FOMO, momentum, whatever you want to say. I think their momentum is now back in the software names, at least into earnings.
6:12And real quick about Google, very quietly, you're right back to all-time highs in an earnings release on the 29th. Another name I think you want to stay with.
6:19Tim Seymour:The setup into earnings is pretty bad. Well, at this point, it's a little concerning. It's a little concerning.
6:25Karen Finerman:But I'll just say that, you know, you've seen equal weight underperform. And what's wrong with rotation back into the biggest stocks in the world? I mean, this was – they have not been a popular trade and a popular rotation probably back to July of last summer. Relative outperformance for the Qs against the S &P really for the first time. I mean, getting back near those July relative highs, still not at relative all time highs to the S &P. Yeah, I mean, NVIDIA was 212. I think it hit an October high. But one more thing about Microsoft, though, I do think that the cloud business will, I think for all the cloud businesses, whether it's AWS or Microsoft or Google, they're going to be very, very, very strong.
7:01So that would be another thing for them to, you know, have a little bounce on. Although I do remember Bing. Do you remember Bing?
7:08Tim Seymour:Hardly. Does anybody use Bing? I only use it by accident when it makes me use Bing. Right, and then I'm upset that I went to Bing instead. Exactly. If I said Dave Bing to you ladies, would that resonate? No. Well, I mean, yeah. Well, no, Sandy's here. Sandy Candle is here.
7:24Karen Finerman:I think we're talking about a guard for the Baltimore Bullets at some point, or the Washington Bullets. Yes, at the time. That might have been. Anyway, back to you, Melms. Yeah. Really? Well, Dave Bing could play. I mean, he had a handle. I mean, back in the day when Clyde was playing, obviously you had a guy like Phil Chenier. But he's not the most famous bang.
7:41Tim Seymour:This is too much too early on in the show. There's one bang that really. Too much too early on in the show. In terms of this rally back, though, to all-time highs, should we say, oh, you know what? Of course it's clear. You know? Fix is down. It's below pre-conflict levels. Everything's going to be okay. It might be okay. That's fine. I just, you know, I'm always long. So I'm going to be long. I was long two weeks ago when that was not very good. I'm long now. At the moment, it seems nice. I'm not changing that strategy.
8:10Karen Finerman:Look, the banks have given people a lot of reason to feel OK about the economy and the consumer. And forget the fact that their trading business went through the roof. But that also you're seeing M &A. You're hearing the banks talk about an M &A pipeline. The resiliency here is extraordinary. We now everybody now knows if they didn't already know that the gas budget is three to five percent of the American consumer, a big deal, but not catastrophic. So I'm not telling you that we shouldn't worry. And I'm concerned here. If I was concerned two weeks ago, I'd be a little concerned here. Right now, really, no ships are getting through the strait.
8:45Karen Finerman:China's starting to we're going to talk about this tonight. They're not happy. The threats for recession are probably the same as they were two weeks ago. But the market's a lot higher. The oil is a story. I don't think that story is going away as well. You mentioned the VIX. I think an 18 VIX actually is a bit of a warning sign, especially in a situation now where as oversold as we were four and a half, five weeks ago. and everybody was saying that, that's how probably overbought we are in some of the short-term indicators as well, on top of which of exit 18, which has been the low we've seen over this last six to nine months.
9:16Tim Seymour:All right, let's get to the developments in the war with Iran. China weighing in on the U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. CNBC's Megan Kisela has got the details. And Megan, this is strong language finally coming out of the Chinese. That's right, Melissa. Beijing had been playing a quiet but notable role in pushing the U.S.
9:32Karen Finerman:and Iran towards that ceasefire, and they have been critical of the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports. That's when they started to speak out more forcefully. But this morning, President Trump wrote on social media that China was, quote, very happy that he would be permanently opening the Strait of Hormuz, saying he was doing it for them and the world. The president also saying China had agreed not to send weapons to Iran and added, President Xi will give me a big, fat hug when I get there in a few weeks. We are working together smartly and very well. And then he added this ominous line saying, doesn't that beat fighting?
10:03But remember, we are very good at fighting if we have to far better than anyone else. And Melissa, that post came after Trump gave an interview to Fox News earlier this morning, during which he said he and Chinese President Xi had exchanged letters over Iran. He said he'd written to Xi asking him not to supply weapons to Iran and that Xi then wrote back saying essentially he's not doing that.
10:23Karen Finerman:So he's sort of trying to keep things civil here while also keeping alive that threat of fighting. And keep in mind, as you know, China had been purchasing about 90 percent of all of Iran's oil exports. So now with those now effectively blocked, that's a direct hit to Beijing. And all of this, of course, coming just a few weeks ahead of when President Trump is set to travel to China.
10:42Tim Seymour:Melissa. All right, Megan, thank you. Megan Casella. For more on where U.S.-China relations stand, let's bring in David Riedel. He's an expert in China, of course, president of Riedel Research. David, always great to have you with us. Thank you. What do you make of what Trump is saying? I mean, the language out of Beijing, at least overnight, may be prior to Trump saying that he exchanged letters and they promised him not to send weapons, all of that, was pretty fierce. I mean, you know, President Xi said the world order is crumbling and pointed directly to what was going on in Iran. I mean, what's your take on this whole situation?
11:15Well, I'm going to believe what Beijing is saying a little bit more these days than what we're hearing out of D.C. I think that Beijing is frustrated by this. I think that they don't want the U.S. meddling in what is an important chain of supply for them in terms of oil and energy. They think that the U.S. doesn't have any right to be doing what it's doing. And they're also pitching themselves as the more stable, predictable global partner to some of those allies in Southeast Asia that are really getting hurt by the higher fuel prices.
11:52Karen Finerman:Hey, David, Tim. So I guess that's where I would go with this because I saw both in your notes and what we know about China is they've been stockpiling for years and that they've also diversified into wind, into solar, into nuclear. It doesn't mean that this isn't an incredibly important source of oil for them. But is this more posturing? So we're listening to them. But this is really China, who has a lot of work to do in the region to befriend people that they, you know, and again, it's going to be, I would say, convenient on their part to do it when it makes sense for them. But how much of this is to play the role that you just said, which is we're actually the safe pair of hands around here?
12:27I think it's a very good chunk of it. It's because I think it gives them more leeway with regard to Taiwan, protecting what they see as a domestic waterway, the straits between them and Taiwan. I think they can position themselves as, hey, we're the reasonable arbiter. We need to control the global chip supply because we're the people that can be a reliable someone to rely on for free trade. It's a terrible win that we're giving them in terms of giving them all this diplomatic opportunity to work with some of these potential partners of ours in Vietnam, Indonesia, the Philippines, and places like India.
13:09David, will this administration use Taiwan as a pawn in this entire thing? And if so, if that's the case, is that an existential risk that the markets are pricing in? You know, I've been concerned for a long time that she is going to act on his long time, just lifelong ambition to make sure that that happened, the reunification happens under his watch. I think if they were looking for any reason to do it or any OK from the global markets to do it, they've gotten a couple of them in the last few years, Ukraine and now this war on Iran. David, it's Karen from some of the other countries in the Middle East.
13:43How much sway or not do they have with Iran? Very little. I mean, they've really shown that Iran is willing to lash out at anybody. They're not looking for any friends. They feel confident in their position. And they're not looking for any friendships. So Pakistan kind of coming out as the winner on the diplomatic front. But I think Iran's burned a lot of bridges in the region.
14:09Tim Seymour:What is the state of the Chinese economy I mean, and what's your forecast if this conflict goes on, if China will actually have to dip into those reserves and whether or not they could insulate themselves to some degree from, you know, a prolonged closure of the strait? You know, they spent the last 20 years protecting themselves from any sort of external shocks. They were very surprised by the global financial crisis coming out of the developed world. And they created a just a fortress economy that really protects themselves from that in a big way. On the energy side, you just heard it, nuclear, wind, solar, all kinds of things in addition to the stockpiles.
14:48So they're actually in pretty strong case for their domestic economy. This really becomes an issue for China when it becomes a global recession, when global trade starts to ameliorate. You know, they've diversified their customer base away from the U.S., but very heavy in Europe and in other emerging markets around the world, all of which are getting severely battered by these higher fuel prices. So that's when it becomes a real problem for China, when it's a problem for the rest of the world.
15:16Tim Seymour:I mean, India is already being hit. I mean, you just came from India, David, and it struck me in the notes that there's a shortage going on in the cans that hold fuel, which is also in short supply. That's right. It was really shocking to land there in the middle of this war and be there for nearly a week. I was in Mumbai, and I really noticed a lot of panic buying of these cylinders of cooking gas, which are ubiquitous across South Asia. And in India, they've had to put controls on them. They can't let people buy too many of them. A lot of people are actually, poorer people are leaving the cities and going back to their villages because the costs have gone up so much for them to eat out the food stalls and the roadside stalls and so on and so forth that are really their lifeline.
16:00So you're seeing millions of people leaving Mumbai, which is devastating for construction sites, which have lost a lot of their workers, as well as a lot of the things that keep the Indian engine running. I was really surprised to see how what a big hit India is taking from a result as a result of this war.
16:17Karen Finerman:So, David, let's cut to the chase on Chinese equities. I mean, it's been a 40 percent drawdown. If you're looking at making cap China tech while we're having, you know, we just talked about a renaissance. What are you doing with China tech here? Yeah, I'm buying the ones that have super strong brand names. You know, I'm buying Tencent and Baidu and these guys that have good domestic positions. I wouldn't want to touch anything in the energy sector because I think that if anyone gets sacrificed by Beijing, it's going to be them. I think you've got to be wary in the banks because I think that there's going to be some credit problems once these higher prices really start to bite.
16:51But anyone who has a good defensive and consumer-oriented brand, and a lot of the tech companies are right there, I'd be a buyer.
16:59Tim Seymour:David, always great to speak with you. Thank you. Thank you. David Riedel, Riedel Research. Have you been buying, Tim?
17:06Karen Finerman:No. I think emerging markets as an asset class I've been nibbling, and certainly in terms of an allocation, it's made sense. It's been an outperformer on the way back up. I have a good-sized position in Alibaba. I do think Baidu is fascinating here, and I think Tencent might be the best kind of holding tech incubator in the world. So if you look at that K-Web chart, which tends to be a portfolio of many of these, you're back to two-year lows. In fact, you're actually, you know, you've bounced a little bit at a key support level. I think valuation, you can, you know, it's never really been the issue, but I think it's very compelling here.
17:41I agree with that. And I think Alibaba, I didn't think it was as low as it did. It did, but it seems to be bouncing now. But last night I was made fun of for the 40-year Toyota chart, but EWZ. I was like, for what? There's so many different. Be specific. Because it was 40 years.
Read the full transcript
17:55Karen Finerman:Yeah. But EWZ is now broken in 18-year downtrend. And the Brazil ETF, if you want to play emerging markets, is something we've talked about here for a while. That still has some room. Banks and resources and energy still work. 18 is different from 40.
18:10Tim Seymour:It's almost a little more than half.
18:12Karen Finerman:Yeah, well, 18 kind of takes you back to the financial crisis, right? Right, so it's fine, but 40 is... You know what, that's an excellent point by you. That's what I do.
18:19Tim Seymour:All right, coming up. Shares of a chip equipment maker, ASML, getting hit despite strong earnings and guidance. Why one trader says the company is having its micron moment. Plus, another bank bump, Bank of America rounding up money center earnings, the results taking that stock higher. And what the CEO had to say about the health of the consumer banking sector. Don't go anywhere. Fast Money is back in tune.
18:40This is Fast Money with Melissa Lee right here on CNBC.
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20:51Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. Shares of Dutch semi-equipment maker ASML down after its report this morning. The company beating earnings and revenue expectations and raising its 2026 sales forecast, but seeing a drop in sales to China thanks to new export control restrictions. You're watching this out. What did you call it? It reminds me of what. So Micron had that huge run up into earnings. It reported a crazy good quarter and then spent the next week and a half trading straight down. This had a huge run up in earnings. We actually traded up to the prior all time high from February. I thought the quarter was fine.
21:24It's the price action that I think should be a little concerning. Traded almost five times normal volume. Obviously never really bounced today. I think the setup is such where you could see a downdraft in the name and you saw the downdraft in Micron. It's now back to where it was. But I think over the next week or so, there could be some damage to the downside.
21:42Karen Finerman:This stock, first of all, I'm long the stock in Idevo. It's a stock that's doubled, as you talked about on price, but gross margin of 53 % was extraordinary. They're 51 % memory, 49 % logic. They've reduced dependence on China. They're seeing the same demand outstrip supply dynamics as everybody else. They are also really investing in their business. So it's something to worry about. I hear you on this one, but I feel this is a less of a one trick pony. And I think this is one that actually has a more diversified customer base. So I stay long.
22:17Tim Seymour:Do you want a diversified customer base or do you want it to be more sort of AI focus, Julie? No, I think you definitely want a diversified customer base. I think that's the number one knock that I have on many of the hyperscalers and NVIDIA is that they have so much concentration in their base. And ASML is much, much broader. I think people would love to see a little bit more diversification away from China, given the match act that's in place. I don't know if Trump and Xi and their little like pen pal relationship have been talking about that. But I think it's actually pretty meaningful in terms of China's ability to continue to innovate.
22:52And ASML having and losing a pretty deep and important market. So I think that's really at play. And that's the real question is how quickly can we move away from that in order to meet those huge targets they set out for the next three years? Yeah.
23:06Tim Seymour:And you are in NVIDIA. In NVIDIA. Right. Right. I mean, you know, we're all talking about the same chain of right of demand. What's the right way to play it? I'm not sure. But NVIDIA is where I started a few years ago and sticking with it. This one, it's far more expensive just on a PE basis. But you could say, all right, it should be. But I'm going to stick with NVIDIA. Is it the N in the bedang? No. No. OK. What would that make too much sense? Novo. That's right. That's right. Novo. which is rearing it. Yes, it's a little life. We share an N. Yes, we do. But since I only have four letters and Karen has like eight letters.
23:46Six. Well, your junk's a little smaller. My junk is smaller. It's more compact. The junk has been awful. But it's well put together. Well, constructive.
23:55Tim Seymour:A lot more Fast Money to come. Here's what's coming up next.
23:59Karen Finerman:Backing up the bullseye. Why Wall Street is getting behind Target and the retailer reconnecting with an old flame to bring some heat back ahead of the summer. Plus, the results out of Bank of America, Uber's RoboTaxi investment, and the fertilizer fuss hitting farmers ahead of an important planting season. You're watching Fast Money, live from the NASDAQ market side in Times Square. We're back right after this.
24:27Comcast is delivering extraordinary experiences in live sports through the incredible broadcast and storytelling from NBC. innovative and personalized viewing features on Xfinity and Peacock and the country's most reliable Wi-Fi. Viewers can enjoy every game-changing play faster and more seamlessly than ever. All on a network built to deliver unforgettable moments as close to live as possible. The ultimate experience for the American sports fan.
24:53Tim Seymour:Learn more at comcastcorporation.com slash sports. Adventure Global. We think about what can be done, not what's usually done. Through innovation, Venture Global is not only building some of the largest energy facilities in the world right here in the United States, but delivering American energy at a fraction of the cost and a fraction of the time. So while others are busy talking, we're busy building. That's Venture Global. That's unstoppable energy. I'm Cindy Lauper with fellow Cosentix advocate, Chef Michelle Bernstein. We'll share our experiences with plaque psoriasis, with psoriatic arthritis, and Dr.
25:39Panico will talk about the possible connection.
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26:28Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. And a target popping nearly 3 % today on some love from Wall Street. Morgan Stanley out with a bullish note saying the company is moving in the right direction with a path to credible improvement. Analysts rate the stock overweight with a$140 price target. Jeffrey is also seeing improving margins and says EPS upside is underappreciated. Shares are up about 25 % this year. So finally, for so long, since 2021, when it had that sort of inventory issue. Yes, yes. Right? It's not for a turnaround. They're going to improve things. And finally, it's kicking in. Well, I have to go to Timbo on this one.
27:06Karen Finerman:I appreciate that, because, I mean, there are those that say the turnaround in the stock was when it was put as the T in Timbo. Of course, we've talked a lot of acronyms tonight. I believe this is three things that are happening all at once. First of all, the story around inventory, but the normalization of, I think, their sales mix. So the different segments, I think, is part of this. The margin recovery, unquestionably. And clearly the sense is there's confidence in new leadership. The sense is that it was time for change. It's going to take some time. There was probably a bit of kitchen sinking going on there.
27:40Karen Finerman:Hardly expensive. If the consumer is OK and we're starting to again to see, I think it really is in the product mix. And that's something that's been part of what they've talked about. It's all time high in 2021. It's been in this five year downtrend, which, by the way, this rally from December has probably gotten us to the third point of that downtrend. Valuation's never been a concern, but the entire way down, you can make a case. And I don't think they've figured out their problems. And I do think they're sort of in the middle in the retail environment where the last place you want to be is in the middle.
28:11I guess the good news is they don't report until May 20th or something. So there's some times to figure it out. And maybe it continues to levitate. But the rallies, we saw a rally like this in 2022 where the stock went from 115 to 175 over the course of a couple of months. and then it gave the entire thing back. I think we're in the midst of that now.
28:28Tim Seymour:The key to this turnaround is the mixed shift to discretionary, which is a higher margin. If you believe the economy is great, the consumer is in good shape, then fine. If you do not, and you think that consumers will not spend as much on throw pillows and mugs and things like that. Potpourri-scented candles. I don't know. I guess that's where you get your potpourri-scented candles. Why wouldn't you? Then that turnaround is in jeopardy. Yes, it is. And I mean, if the consumer is still employed, That's great. But if the mix of how they have to spend their money has to go up because groceries go up, gas goes up, then that's less, you know, higher margin.
29:04What would you get? I don't know. Something for your kitchen, I think, is really like that's that's their sweet things for the home. Yeah. Margins.
29:13Karen Finerman:Honestly, I'm doing my kitchen stuff at Williams-Sonoma. I mean, I just, you know, right. I'm doing more. You can never have enough Dutch ovens. Yeah, linen closet stuff, probably. Scented candles, potpourri. I used to get scented candles from Henry Bendell. Oh, I love that. That's not a Target brand. It's very fancy. I didn't say that it was. They're showing off now. They have that great show up.
29:37Tim Seymour:Big spender on candles. Not just the Glade. Nice candles. Or Yankee candles. Meantime, Sydney Sweeney getting back together with American Eagle Outfitters teaming me up for the retailer's jean shorts campaign this summer. You may remember her ad last year, sparked some controversy, but was also credited with driving demand. American Eagle shares popping more than 9 % today, but the stock is down more than 27 % this year. I feel like Julie knows about the Jean Short revival or whatever you want to call it. Yeah, no, I'm a big fan of jorts. Love seeing them on everyone possible. I mean, it's such a classy look.
30:12Look, I think, look, broadly speaking, I think it was actually pretty successful having her. They were able to really generate a lot of press. It wouldn't be the type of press I would love about myself, but, you know, to each his own. But I do think it is going to get some excitement. And, you know, Jorts need to have their moment every two or three years. Right. Or not. I mean, it's not crazy expensive at all, but, you know, good for them. They should go back and work. Why not keep doing it? I just feel like it's going to not work for a long-term trend, a long-term plan for them. So I'd rather be in something else.
30:49You should ask Guy about his George, his Daisy Dukes, right? Yeah, you should ask me because I wear them proudly every weekend. As a matter of fact, now that the weather's nicer to him. Folks at home, that is a tough visual. It is terrible.
31:01Tim Seymour:We're just going to break because it's just too much. Coming up, we've got our eyes on a couple of fast movers. Bank of America's beat, Uber's robo-taxi strategy shift, and a surge in fertilizer prices hitting U.S. farmers at the worst time. Fast Money's back in two. Missed a moment of fast? Catch us anytime on the go. Follow the Fast Money podcast. We're back right after this.
31:28Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. The S &P 500 and Nasdaq both setting new record highs today. The S &P closing above 7 ,000 for the first time ever, and the Nasdaq extending its winning streak to 11 straight days, its best run since late 2021. The Dow, though, posting a small loss, dragged down by a 3 percent drop in Caterpillar. J.B. Hunt shares, meantime, moving higher in the after-hours session by a little bit more than a percent. The transport company beating expectations on the top and the bottom lines. And REIT operator S.L. Green is lower by 2.5 percent after missing revenue estimates. Shares of Bank of America up in the regular session after topping estimates for the first quarter.
32:04Tim Seymour:Net income up 17 percent to$8.6 billion, or$1.11 a share, the company's highest EPS in almost two decades. And shares of Live Nation dropping more than 6 percent. A jury and an antitrust trial finding the company and its subsidiary, Ticketmaster, illegally monopolized the ticketing market by controlling concert booking venues and promotions. Karen, you're in this one. I am. I've been in this one for a long time. Actually, the thing that got me into it was the purchase of Ticketmaster. So this is going way, way back. But this is not a great position to be in. The stock probably doesn't have a lot of near-term upside, at least until this remedy situation is resolved.
32:45Interestingly and confusingly, the government did settle a number of cases, a number of states. So those states will not participate in whatever the remedy is. They already have a different deal. But the bigger states, the New York and California, did not settle. So this will be interesting, painful for Live Nation. However, they faced a lot of threats in the past and somehow have been able to work their way out. I don't know if this this will be one of them, but we need to get a little more clarity to see. We have no idea what the remedy is. The ultimate remedy is you have to sell Ticketmaster.
33:20Tim Seymour:Yeah. Yes. Wow. We've got a news alert meantime on the future of Live Golf. Dom Chu joins us on the Fast Line with more on this. Hey, Dom. All right. So, Melissa, I just got off the phone with a senior source familiar with the investment and operations over at Live Golf. And there have been a lot of reports out there about whether PIF is committed and whether the Live Golf League is going to cease operations. Again, according to a source very familiar with senior management and operations and the investments at Live, they're saying despite reports of the league losing funding and closing on after or following Live Golf Mexico, which is the event this week, the season is confirmed to be continuing as planned.
34:02Again, that's a source familiar with Live Golf as investments and operations. So it's unclear right now what that means in terms of PIF's total commitment or level of commitment. But for what they're saying right now, it seems as though they are going to continue as planned with what's happening right now with the event that's currently slated for this week, which is in Mexico, Melissa. So that's what we have for right now. I'll get back to you guys as I know more. But that's kind of the story that's being told out of the live golf ranks right now.
34:32Tim Seymour:All right, Dom, thank you for the update. Dom Chu. You got it. Meantime, shares of fertilizer stock, CF Industries, up more than 20 percent since the start of the war in Iran as shipments to the Strait of Hormuz remain blocked. That is having a big impact on American farmers, which could in turn affect your grocery bill. Our Brandon Gomez joins us here on set with more. You've talked to a lot of these farmers. They're feeling the pain right now. Yeah, absolutely. Farmers on the ground, they're the ones you want to hear from. A new survey data from the American Farm Bureau Federation shows nearly 60 percent of U.S.
35:00farmers say their finances are getting worse just as spring planting season ramps up. Now, fourth generation farmer Lorenda Overman telling me fertilizer and nitrogen costs on her North Carolina farm jumped from$139 per acre last year to$217 an acre this season. Now, the pain isn't evenly spread. Southern farmers are getting hit harder, just 19 percent locked in fertilizer early, and now nearly 80 percent say they can't afford what they need. Overman says last year's harvest let little cash to pre-buy, and they're more exposed to price hikes. Now, farmers are making tough trade-offs, and that could hit yields.
35:38Rice, cotton, peanuts, most at risk. Overman's Farm cutting back on corn to shift to soybeans, which need less fertilizer. Oklahoma farmer Tommy Salisbury also making a similar move. While the strategy to protect margins, you know, it comes at a risk. Changes can mean lower yield, tighter supply. And with planting underway, timing couldn't be worse for a lot of these farmers, Melissa.
35:59Tim Seymour:Is there any, you know, let's say the straight opens up. Could they then buy fertilizer cheaper for during the season? So what's difficult and the reason why it's so important that I'm talking to these farmers now is that these decisions are already being made. So even if they were able to secure supply, they're already changing their growth strategy, and that's already impacting their bottom line. They're reworking their books here. So how long is it, you know, the crop and then food prices when we see that sort of increase in price translate? It's going to be every step of the process, right?
36:27Because the farmers aren't the ones that are deciding the prices, right? They're going to give them to the distributors. The distributors are going to give them to the retailers. The retailers are then going to pass those costs on to the consumer. And so you're going to see increases incrementally along the way at each of those breaking points. So perhaps the consumer might not see the full impact of what inflationary costs might be, but there's definitely going to be something. And again, for those commodities that are more directly impacted, rice, peanuts, what Smucker's going to do, right, with peanut butter?
36:53Tim Seymour:Right. I mean, we're going to be paying more for your skippy, Tim. The tough choice, though, also is less money for other things like equipment, which we've seen in the past. I mean, that historically is what happens. And look at the move in John Deere, which, you know, Tim has a tractor. Good for Tim. But he's probably going to hold on to that tractor for a while instead of trading it in. And I think a lot of the farmers are making those same decisions. So I think the winners and losers are pretty clear. I think Deere probably loses to this. I think actually Walmart wins to this. Nothing runs like a Deere, by the way.
37:20Karen Finerman:So I'm not trading mine in, and I'm really happy with it. I just think that margins are going to stay high for a bit here. And if you look at nitrogen fertilizer and the potash companies, I mean, the street is late to follow through on this. And it doesn't mean that that's when you should be chasing analysts, except for the fact that the underlying costs, excuse me, the underlying inputs in here are not in the models. And I know we've had a massive move. And I do think that if you believe oil prices are shaking out, you should be doing the same with fertilizer, except this will be stickier. I think Smuckers needs to go with just a little more jelly, I would think.
37:52Right. They're Uncrustables, which is my favorite merger of all time. Great feedback, by the way. All time. Yes. It was Jif peanut butter to Smuckers. And we had a deer also, but Lawrence broke it. Did he really? Yes, he did.
38:05Karen Finerman:Did he try to fix it? How is that possible?
38:07Tim Seymour:He drove over a tree trunk, a tree, like, stump.
38:11Karen Finerman:Yeah. Yes. Well, sounds like it was a fake tractor. Sorry, Lawrence.
38:14Tim Seymour:Brandon, great to see you. Thank you. Thanks, Melissa. Coming up, a critical moment for Critical Minerals, how one financing platform hopes to support the supply chain and the outlet for rare earths as the U.S. looks to ramp up production. The CEO of Metals Royalty Company joins us next. And here's a sneak peek at the Kramer cam. Jim is chatting exclusively with the CEO of regional bank First Horizon on the back of its results. Catch a full interview top of the hour on Mad Money.
38:43Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. Copper prices have been back on the rise, rising 10 percent since President Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran last week. Gold and silver also regaining momentum. Prices of both fell as the conflict began but are beginning to rise again. For more on the metals market and critical minerals in particular, we're joined by Brian Pace Fraga, chairman and CEO of the Metals Royalty Company. Brian, great to have you with us. Thanks for having me. Critical minerals meaning what in metals? Because you think of rare earths, but it's not necessarily rare earths. I think rare earths is just the start.
39:15It's really the iceberg in the whole commodity super cycle that we're in right now. And for the first time in 30 years, it's being led by the United States. I spent a lot of my early career in China. They've been all over this space for 20, 30 years. And I think it's now the most important time for America to get ahead of their mineral sovereignty. And it's the exact space that we're building a business around.
39:36Tim Seymour:Right. And you don't actually mine for any of this, correct? No, no. We're in the finance business. We're looking for royalties, streams. You mentioned wheat and precious metals, companies like that, but with a full focus on American mineral sovereignty. I'll just say real quick, MP Materials is the name we've talked about here. 60 Minutes did a piece. it is top of mind for a lot of people. So as Tim said prior to this, asset light, I mean, it seems like you're in the catbird seat in terms of where the world is going. Yeah, I think the rare earth and the MP story is a critical one, to say the least.
40:09But it's a much bigger reset for America. Over 90 % of most of their metals come from overseas. It's like the oil moment before the shale revolution. And it's actually even more acute. You've got a country that is fully dependent on China, for their critical minerals. And we're not just talking critical minerals, talking iron ore, met coal. You know, we're talking about the whole supply chain for defense, for AI, for semiconductors. It's a big problem. So just to learn the business a little, at what stage of the mining do you get in? When do they look to sell royalties? Usually it's at the early stage when they're actually looking for money to build the mine or through expansion.
40:53The metals industry isn't one that's well-serviced by financial service businesses. So it's companies like ours that are alternative finance businesses that fill that void.
41:04Karen Finerman:Brian, interesting and love hearing you say commodity supercycle, because I'm not sure a lot of people know we're in a commodity supercycle. As someone that spent a lot of time in Eastern Europe and parts of Asia when this stuff was going on 20 years ago, So I'm curious what you see into what is the next metal with a squeeze on it. Is it nickel? You know, for example, nickel, which Russia controls a huge amount of supply, but we also have a lot of nickel here, certainly up in Canada. Or is it manganese? I'm just kind of curious, where's the next squeeze coming in something that maybe the audience who isn't as deep into some of the, you know, some of these minerals could understand?
41:40I don't know if I'm the right guy to speculate on the next squeeze. I would say that all of these metals go through their cycles. The tighter markets tend to have the most volatility. So one of my earlier companies was a lithium company. Narrow market, demand change, the price spikes. I think across the board, we're experiencing a bifurcation in pricing where you've got even Brent Crude and WTI. WTI was a premium to Brent Crude for the first time in at least my lifetime. So I think what we'll see is America just becoming more dominant in the supply chain, whether it's onshore or getting offtakes like the Chinese have done for the last 20 years from places like South America, Africa, even the Middle East.
42:28So I'm probably not the right guy to speculate on the next squeeze. But I think having a diversified approach is the right approach and being opportunistic when things are soft and being more careful when prices are high.
42:40Tim Seymour:In terms of financing, though, are there a lot more projects here in the United States under this administration versus past? I mean, how has that changed with the Trump administration and with the recent conflicts really highlighting the need to have strategic sort of stockpiles or reserves of metals here on our shores? This is part of the challenge. Unlike oil, which is a strong endowment here in the United States through the shale reservoirs, you don't have that same blessing in America of all the minerals that you need. So it's actually going to take a collaborative effort, I think, and hopefully companies like ours can play that role in getting offtakes and supply from other countries and bringing them to the United States.
43:20I think the other thing to mention is most mines take 15 to 20 years to permit. In the United States, the average is 29 years. So this is a challenge that a number of stakeholders need to move forward with, government, communities, environmental agencies. But for the first time in my life, the U.S. is paying attention, and that's the win.
43:45Tim Seymour:Brian, great to speak with you. Thank you for coming by. Thanks for having me. Brian Pace, Braga. If you think about what's going on, again, we've talked about it on this show for a while. Now more and more mainstream media outlets are talking about it, and they're sort of at the epicenter of the whole thing, understanding that, as he said, the U.S. is not the most, I guess, mineral-rich country, but we have friendly nations around us that are, that are actually going to benefit from, I think, a lot of what they do. So it's a great business model.
44:11Karen Finerman:I think if you look at the copper miners, it tells you where it's all going. And that COPEX ETF or Freeport, which is back at those all-time highs, The dynamic here is also that some of these players are also very involved in some of these other precious minerals. And I just think we are in a commodity super cycle. And I think a weaker dollar is also going to take these things higher if that continues.
44:33Tim Seymour:Coming up, shifting away from shoes, the hard pivot from sneaker retailer Allbirds. And what is next after today's massive stock pop? More Fast 20 in two.
44:53Tim Seymour:You remember Allbirds? Allbirds, a sneaker maker, yeah.
44:56Karen Finerman:Sort of.
44:57Tim Seymour:A huge pop in the stock in today's session after the company said it's going to make a hard pivot into being an AI. AI. AI. Yeah, exactly. AI computing infrastructure company. Take a look at that gain of 582 % in today's session. It was up as much as 875 % on the news. Though even with the pop, it's a small market cap. It's like$150 million. So keep that in mind. It had been worth more than$4 billion when it went public. Now, remember earlier this year, Allbirds announced it was closing all its full-price physical U.S. stores. Last month, agreed to sell its intellectual property and other assets for about$40 million.
45:39Tim Seymour:And today's news, of course, what does this make you think of? Right? GameStop. Pets.com, right? GameStop, for sure. Putting a dot com at the end of things. If they have no intellectual property, what is the basis for the AI pivot? I don't know. How about Long Island Blockchain? It was a beverage company. They put blockchain on the name and it became something completely different. What was with those pets? What were we just looking at? Long Island, you know. But the short interest was only 18, which is a huge, but not this kind of squeeze huge. Maybe tomorrow it'll be. Stock traded 275 million shares today.
46:15It typically trades like 125 ,000 shares a day. So you talk about the gamification of the stock. This is at the epicenter of the absurdity that goes on. But you know what?
46:26Karen Finerman:This also makes me think. The top? No, no. In fact, we've just started memeing again. Like we haven't. We've got another 10 % to go in the S &P. Because this we have. Look, there's been a lot of FOMO and euphoria over the last few days in the market. But we really haven't gotten this. This is GameStop. I mean, it's exactly what it feels like.
46:46Tim Seymour:Reversion to the meme. I mean, look at Ho-Chairs, right? Ho-Chairs, huge stretch here. I mean, a lot of the meme-y sort of names, Julie, have had the quantum names, for instance. All of that. Higher. Yes, all the nonsense is back again. I candidly cannot come up with a better line than Dr. Parikh Patel, who said, as the great Warren Buffett once said, the best investment is not in yourself. It's in a bankrupt shoe retailer that pivots to AI data center operations. And, I mean, it's really true. Like, this is the most absurd thing I've ever heard in my life. But I think it really, really highlights where we are in the moment, where everyone just wants a share of this.
47:21Tim Seymour:Yep. Up next, final trades.
47:30Tim Seymour:Final trade time, Julie. The bank earnings talked about good M &A market, and that's what Mullis really specializes in. Timbo.
47:37Karen Finerman:I was just looking down at a 45-year chart of Rio Tinto. Because we are in a commodity super cycle and it took out the old highs guy. Those charts are back.
47:47Tim Seymour:Karen. Nova. Geek. Palo Alto Networks. Thank you for watching Fast Money. Mad Money with Jim Cramer starts right now.
48:39Karen Finerman:Thank you. to severe obstructive sleep apnea, OSA, and adults with obesity. ZetBound is a prescription medicine used with a reduced calorie diet and increased physical activity to help adults with moderate to severe obstructive sleep apnea, OSA, and obesity to improve their OSA. ZetBound is approved as a 2.5, 5, 7.5, 10, 12.5, or 15 milligram injection. ZetBound contains terzepatide and should not be used with other terzepatide-containing products or any GLP-1 receptor agonist medicines. It is not known if ZepBound is safe and effective for use in children. Don't share needles or pins or reuse needles.
49:19Karen Finerman:Don't take if allergic to it or if you or someone in your family had medullary thyroid cancer or if you've had multiple endocrine neoplasia syndrome type 2. Tell your doctor if you get a lump or swelling in your neck. Stop ZepBound and call your doctor if you have severe stomach pain or a serious allergic reaction. Severe side effects may include inflamed pancreas or gallbladder problems. Tell your doctor if you experienced vision changes before scheduled procedures with anesthesia. If you're nursing, pregnant, plan to be, or taking birth control pills, taking Zip bound with a sulfonylurea or insulin may cause low blood sugar.
49:49Karen Finerman:Side effects include nausea, diarrhea, and vomiting, which can cause dehydration and worsen kidney problems. Talk to your doctor. Call 1-800-545-5979 or visit zipbound.lily.com.
From the publisher
Tesla and Microsoft climbing as the two Mag7 laggards pace for their best weeks of the year. The semi and data center details boosting those names, and if this could be the start of a tech turnaround for the stocks. Plus, the restrictions weighing on ASML, Bank of America gets a bump after reporting, and the state of metals and critical minerals as geopolitical tensions weigh on the space.
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