Mag7 Results On Deck… And The Non-U.S. Equity Trade 1/23/26

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21:04Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money, a news alert on NVIDIA. Board member Persis Drell resigning from the board effectively, effective immediately, according to the company. Drell will be pursuing a new professional opportunity. Meantime, Intel sinking 17 percent today, its worst day since August 2024. The chipmaker reported earnings last night, giving soft guidance for the current quarter and warning of a supply shortage. Shares are still up 22 percent this year, more than 90 percent over the last six months. Tim, what are you doing with your position? I covered calls I sold. I mean, it was I didn't expect this kind of a move.

21:38I expected it overbought conditions. I was selling that upside vol, taking advantage of deltas that that had this thing way too bullish. But again, volatility attached to it. I mean, it doesn't often work this well. And it was a case where shorter dated was also the better way to play it. So that's true. I will say after this move, the stock's only back to where it was on January 9th or 10th. So and again, this is part of that call, which was I didn't really understand the 16 or 17 percent we had in a couple of days going into it. I still don't. But but ultimately, there was never a valuation argument for Intel.

22:14There hasn't been even at its low levels. There has been this strategic element. I won't bring up the great term that Mr. Too rich to fail. He coined it. We did bring it. That was a good one. And I think Intel meanders here. Yeah, I think the call pretty much underscored that this very much is still an early innings turnaround story, not an AI story. And I think to Tim's point, or perhaps maybe I'm just kind of rejiggering his point, the fact that this thing has run up the way it's run up, I think has been kind of a follow through of people expressing an AI view. And I really don't think that Intel is an AI story at this particular point.

22:55You talk about the losses in foundry, you guide down, you have a situation where you have supply constraints. The foundry business, it's a third of the business that's essentially weighing on whatever profitability that you might see. You have had some pockets of positive free cash flow, depending on what time frame you're looking at. But this is still very much a flat to negative EPS story. Very early innings in the turnaround. And I just don't think the price action that we've seen is justified.

23:22Tim Seymour:I like what Gene Munster said yesterday night, and that is that Intel is a meme stock. It is a meme stock. It's become a meme stock. It has the backing of other semis to it. It has the backing of the United States government. It went to Tim's point from 20 to 54. I was in it. I sold it way too early. I sold it around 40. I missed that upside to 54. Now I think it could come back into that 40-ish level. But remember, it's a supply-side issue, not a demand-side issue. I'd still be a buyer of Intel. All right. There's a lot more Fast Money to come. Here's what's coming up next. Pedal to the metals.

24:00Gold closing in on the$5 ,000 mark. But is it just a bit too precious? Why one of our traders says there may be a pullback coming soon. Plus, the skinny on early demand for Novo Nordisk's weight loss pill. The numbers and whether the stock can sustain its momentum. Next. You're watching Fast Money, live from the NASDAQ market side in Times Square. We're back right after this.

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26:02Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. Novo Nordisk would go be pale off to a strong start. According to Reuters, citing IQVIA data, the oral GLP-1 drug topped 18 ,000 prescriptions in its second week since launching versus 4 ,300 in its first week. Some analysts estimate that number to hit more than 20K. Novo shares eked out a gain today and are up almost 23 % so far this year. So how much further could this run? We should note that that data does not include the prescriptions written from NovoCare, which is the DTC site from Novo Nordisk. So potentially it could be even higher than the 18 ,000 that people are so excited about.

26:35I some of this long novo and feels it was punished overly on the downside with with from sentiment just related to even kind of trial and data related to how much weight loss percentages, et cetera. I actually think, therefore, it's it's deserves what it's getting to the upside here, which is that I don't think their overall volumes are all that much better. The oral pill. It's a very important strategic move. Is it a structural change in their business? I'm not sure, but there's no question volumes have been excellent. But the overall size of their sales and their market share hasn't really changed.

27:08It's almost expected and demanded that they had to be here into this spot. I think the stock was oversold. I think it was interesting and I think it goes higher.

27:15Tim Seymour:I think one outstanding question also will be to what extent, if any, will sales of Oral cannibalize sales of the shot, Mike? And that we just don't know that yet. Yeah, I think it's hard to say. I mean, it would seem optically like that would be appealing. I will say that we did have quite a lot of activity in this one. Also, on the options side, we saw calls outpacing puts by almost 3 to 1. And one of the big trades was a roll of the 63 calls out that expire this month out to the 70s that expire in February. I think that was an overwrite. So somebody who owns the stock. The stock right now is trading right around that sort of tough level that we saw back in September.

27:54And the next stop, I think kind of to Tim's point, is going to be up around 70 bucks, which is where the stock was last July. I think it looks like that's where it might be headed. I think it's going to cannibalize the shots. And I think it's going to open it up to a bunch of people who don't want to take a shot. So 50 percent of people who could take a GLP don't want to take it because they're afraid of the needles or they don't want to deal with the regimen or they don't want to they don't like the injectable. So they're going to take the oral. Now, the problem they have is the oral has less margins.

28:24Right. So it's 10 to 20 percent less margin than the injectable. But I think they make it up in volume. And ultimately, it's probably going to mostly oral on both of these drugs.

28:37Tim Seymour:On some dosages, it is more effective to have a shot, the higher doses. So for morbid obesity, for instance, some may prescribe still these shots. So there are reasons or clinical reasons to still stick with the shot. But I get your the thesis that oral is much more appealing for many people for many reasons. I mean, and for some reasons, I mean, I hear what you're saying in terms of margins, but in terms of the pressure on infrastructure and supply chain, I mean, I would argue that the pill is actually much more sustainable. You don't have cold sores. You don't have any of the transport issues in terms of temperature regulation and the type of transport and trucking that you would need.

29:11So I think, yes, there will be some cannibalization. If the logical person is given the choice between all things else being equal, between taking a pill and getting a shot, I'm sure people would intend to take the pill. With that said, I think Nova's in a spot where, yes, like, is it a structural change of their business? No. But we wanted to see them kind of defend turf. And I think the concerns were that they were going to continue to lose market share at a rapid pace to Lilly. And I think this is a resounding them saying, listen, we are here. We are here to play and for real. And I think that story where it's a two-man race is kind of supported by this recent data.

29:50Tim Seymour:Coming up, gold ever so close to the$5 ,000 milestone. While silver settled above 100 for the first time in history, what is next for the move in metals after this break?

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30:17Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money Stocks. Ending the week mix, the Dow losing 289 points, the S &P just sneaking into positive territory, and the Nasdaq up about three-tenths of a percent. All three, though, down for the week. Small cap slamming the brakes today, the Russell 2000 ETF having its worst day since November and falling into the red for the week. The Russell still vastly outpacing the other major indices this year, up more than 7%. Meantime, gold and silver settling at new records once again today. Gold getting within$10 of the$5 ,000 mark. Silver now north of$100. And treasury yields falling across the board.

30:52Tim Seymour:India's holding of U.S. debt falling to five-year lows as the country looks to support its own currency and diversify its reserves. So what do these moves say about U.S. assets? And remember, the theme at Davos this past week was European officials, non-U.S. officials, officials from other countries saying, we want to diversify a way that there's a new world order here. We can't rely on the old rules anymore. There's no question that if you were, you know, if gold was significantly lower levels, you came out of Davos and said, I need to go buy gold. Gold's not at lower levels. Gold's at much higher levels.

31:29And so a news flow aside, and as someone that's been talking about gold for years, and I expect I will be talking about it for years, we talked about central bank reserve ratios. And I mentioned China at 8 percent when Germany's at 80. I still think these things take gold higher. Where gold has gone, and I think big round numbers like 5 ,000, I think an 83 RSI, I think the over-exuberance here, I think Davos, I think Fed, I think Venezuela, I think Iran. I think all of these things mean I think we're going to see 4 ,600 on gold before we see 5 ,100. I think we're going to get a 5 % correction in gold.

32:03I was selling upside calls in GDX. I'm not, again, it's a trade I'm really happy about. I think the miners continue to be more profitable, more efficient, and we're still not with the right gold price input in models that's incredibly powerful in terms of the valuation. But, again, I say be careful here. It doesn't mean that long term. I think every money management firm is wondering, do we have enough gold? And I think the retail sector thinks they're very underweight gold. I think it's going higher. But I think this trade has gotten in the short run, very short run overdone. Yeah. And I think, you know, everything that Tim was talking about with other countries geopolitical, their sanctions have stopped people from moving money around.

32:43So they're using gold to do that. Diversifying away from U.S. treasuries. China's been doing it for 12 years. Russia's probably been doing it for the same amount of time. India is doing it. It's shorter term process in Japan as well. But when you look at supply, demand, deficit, silver is the only one that you could actually because it's an industrial metal. And they miss by about two to three hundred million ounces per year. So if you're looking for a reason to buy it at these levels, other than emotions, silver is probably the metal that you stick with.

33:12Tim Seymour:It's an industrial metal. And also we were talking to John Champaglia of Sprott yesterday. And he was saying that there is some substitution effect because gold is so high. Indian customers, for instance, aren't buying gold. They're substituting it with silver. And I thought that was really interesting, Mike, that idea that some prices are so high, so you go down to the next level of metal. We're also seeing that when it comes to aluminum, aluminum as a substitute for copper in some applications. Well, yeah. I mean, we have exposure in one of the discretionary funds to basically the whole complex.

33:44We've got GDX. We have GLD. We have SilJ. We have Southern Copper. I will say that at some point, I'm kind of with Tim here. You know, it's getting into this moment where I'm really looking for that downside reversal day. That situation where you see it open, it gaps open to a new all-time high, and then closes sharply lower. When I was back on the NYMEX, that was typically the most bearish pattern that you could see in a commodity. We do feel like there's a lot of enthusiasm. Look at SLV, the ETF. Jeff, that they traded 2.9 million options contracts today. This is something that, you know, a half a million contracts six months ago would have been a big day for this thing.

34:26So, you know, there's a lot of exuberance. And I think that's something to keep an eye on. Yeah, I mean, I'm not really surprised to see BRICS players continuing to look to diversify away from U.S. Treasuries. I don't think that's new. Clearly, you know, with the Davos announcement, I think it's like front and center on everyone's mind. What concerns me, although I do understand the fundamentals around why we're seeing a rotation into real and hard assets, this is really a hedge to your portfolio. At least traditionally, that's the way it's been pitched. And so when you're kind of seeing these parabolic moves in what is supposed to be a hedge, you really wonder if you're going to start to see one-like correlation on the downside, where you would expect the safe haven type of trade to happen within these metals.

35:06If we see a pullback in equities and other risk assets, if you continue to see a collapse across. And I think that's slightly concerning and seemingly kind of flying under the radar.

35:16Tim Seymour:Coming up, Mamdani effect. What Mamdani effect? Owning Manhattan star and luxury real estate powerhouse, Peter Zasap, says the New York City property market will set records this year. He'll break down what he is seeing in the Big Apple next. More Fast Money in two.

35:40Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. There may be a lot of uncertainty over the housing market right now, but our next guest sees a record year for New York City real estate. Peter Zaitsev joined season two of Netflix's Owning Manhattan. The luxury broker sold a$60 million duplex in Manhattan last year and says the uber wealthy aren't getting spooked by Mayor Mamdani's threats to tax the rich. Peter joins us here on set. He is the sales director of new development at Sorrent. Great to have you with us. Thank you for having me. So specifically, you're talking about the luxury market, which is$4 million plus.

36:10Tim Seymour:And what are you seeing? Correct. $4 million plus what we've seen post-Mandani is still record numbers. So November was 25 percent higher than October. And 2025 was the best year we've had since 2021. We've also seen not just my record fail at 60 million dollars, but we saw another record deal at 140 Jane for over 80 million dollars. And subsequent to that, another deal at A.D. Clarkson for$129 million. I love that apartment. It's a sweet apartment. Wish I had a little more room. It's a sweet apartment. So if anything, trophy apartments are selling, and they're selling at record numbers. Not just that, rental numbers are through the roof.

37:00We did another deal for a record price per square foot uptown at the Benson for$288 a square foot,$95 ,000 a month. So if anything, I haven't seen any Mondani effect in the numbers and in the data. And then if you walk outside New York, I've been here for the better part of 30 years. I haven't seen New York this busy in my lifetime. I look at photos of the 80s, right, where everybody's walking on Park Avenue and all the traders are walking to work. It reminds me of that. You can't get a reservation anywhere. You know, your lines out the door for coffee. So the city is very alive and well.

37:43Tim Seymour:Yeah, the back to office has had a huge impact on all of that. But when it comes to, I mean, if you take sort of a broader view of things, the price point that you're talking about, those are people who can afford whatever tax increase Mamdani will bring. They've got the funds to weather whatever comes through Mamdani. I would argue that the people below$4 million are suffering the most or would suffer the most theoretically. So are you seeing a big difference in terms of the desire, the listings, the apartments sitting on the market for the lower price points? Lower price points you still have.

38:17New York City is the cultural capital of the world. It's the financial capital of the world. It's the real estate capital of the world. And it's always been that way and it will remain that way. So a mayor is not going to dictate what this city is and what we've had bad mayors in the past. We've had OK mayors in the past, but it doesn't change the makeup of New York City.

38:41Tim Seymour:We haven't had socialist mayors in the past. That's true. Great point. That's sort of the difference. Right, right. But contrasted, I mean, wasn't weren't there a lot of inbound calls before when he was first elected between November and the end of the year? concerned about what's going to happen to real estate? Yeah, of course there's concern, but it hasn't, in terms of the data, in terms of the data that I've seen, it hasn't changed the makeup. And people still want to be in New York. Peter, how about foreign investors? How about investment properties? Obviously, because there are those buyers out there.

39:14But how much of that? Because when rates were low, we were seeing dynamics. When there were different trends in terms of unrest in other parts of the world, we obviously know there's certain parts of the world where there's a lot of money that comes here. What do you see in there relative to the world you've been in for the last five, 10 years, those two parts of the buyer? You've certainly seen more money come out of Asia into the United States or into New York in terms of real estate, which is increasing overall demand and competition for local buyers. So it's making it more difficult to buy.

39:48And I think the biggest thing that's going to happen in 2026 and 2027 is a lack of inventory. We're at a low, a record low for inventory. And there's only 1 ,900 units planned between now and the end of 2027, which will basically, by the end of 2027, if you're not buying now in the next six, eight to 12 months, you're not going to be able to buy because there's no inventory.

40:14Tim Seymour:Has the intention of the buyer changed at all in terms of, you know, people who are buying are intending to either live in it or have it as their own pied-a-terre versus people who are buying with the intent to rent it because of the uncertainties around Momdani? I think people are still buying homes in New York to live in their homes. You do have some investment, but primarily people want to, you know, even if it's a pied-a-terre, they still want a place in New York. What's the most important amenity now? What's the, especially in these luxury things, what's the coolest cool thing? That's part of what people want.

40:46A cold plunge, for sure. Especially after cold plunge. And saunas, infrared saunas. I think health and wellness have played really big into what happened after COVID because we all want to be healthy. We all realize how time is limited on this earth, and people want to be healthy.

41:05Tim Seymour:All right. Good to know. Cold plunge. Cold plunge. Good to see you. Thank you. Thank you for having me. Peter Zaitsoff, also known as apparently on the show as Sexy Rabbit. But that's as good of a nickname as you're going to get out there. Not with this crew. Coming up, Boeing, Starbucks and beyond. The non-tech earnings catching our eye for next week and the biggest bets from the options market. More Fast Money in two.

41:39Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. It's not just tech on deck to report next week. UPS, Boeing, GM, UnitedHealth, Starbucks, and more, all set to release results. So, Steve, which names are you watching? Can you keep to this list and not bring in other names? Oh, boy. Oh, look at that. Look what you did. I'm just preempting this because I sensed it. Boeing, I've been long, a smidge below 200. I think it goes higher. And every time you hear one of these buildup of defense names, I think it still has a little more room to run. But I have been flirting with taking some off the table and seeing where it fits in.

42:14So that's one of the names I've been watching. And I think that's going to tell the tale for the rest of the defense space. So I'm looking for Boeing, although it doesn't have the percentage of contracts that should be in the defense area. It's still a quasi barometer for the defense stocks. Yeah. Vonowen? I mean, I think it's meta. We kind of alluded to it earlier. For one, it's, you know, discounted to the rest of the MAG-7 complex. Also, I want to see really if they're able to monetize the flywheel. I think that Jeffries Snow made a lot of sense. I think it's a possible opportunity to own it at a discount, and the bar is low.

42:47So any follow-through from earnings, I think, tends to kind of propel the stock forward.

42:51Tim Seymour:The game this time was to do non-tech earnings, Bonoan. Oh, oh, boy. Can you give me a non-tech company? Sure, listen. GM, UNH, Boeing. UNH makes sense, but actually I want to see UPS. Listen, I think this has been under pressure for quite some time. It's been a longstanding kind of barometer of the general economy. I think that's shifted quite a bit, but I still want to understand.

43:15Tim, do you have a non-tech name? I sure do. Well, first of all, I mean, I was going to talk about UPS, and I'll talk quickly, and then I'll move on to GM. But I think the trough is in the rearview mirror. I think the transformation is in progress. I think this stock is on a major turn. And I think this was one of the biggest underperformers that has turned. I like GM. I think the story here and the context is what we've now learned about their EV business and some restructuring. And I think we've actually put some of that in the rearview mirror. I think people are now focusing on the gross margins and the profitability of a company that's never been run better.

44:00It's outperformed. I think it's going higher. All right.

44:02Tim Seymour:Meantime, the options market is betting Starbucks could be brewing up a big post earnings move. So Mike, some following this one, Mike. Yeah. So right now, Starbucks is implying a move of about 8 percent, actually slightly more than that by the end of next week. That's far larger than the stock has historically moved. It's moved an average of about five and a half percent or so over comparable periods, just looking at the last eight reported quarters. Now, if we take a look at today's flow, you know, normally when we take a look at this, one of the things we're interested in figuring out is, okay, are the traders making a bet to the upside?

44:34Are they making a bet to the downside? They are taking the under, but not on the stock's move, but actually how big that move is going to be. We saw a big sale of the 90-105 strangle. We saw 1 ,500 of those sold for$2.40 a contract. Basically, the translation is that somebody is taking in premium on the bet that the stock is going to be range-bound between those two strikes and saying it's probably going to be closer to that 5.5%. We've got a new CEO in there trying to turn the company around. But the question, of course, is, is it going to be the business or the CEO that drives it? And I would say that the person who's selling these triangles thinks it's going to be the business.

45:12Tim Seymour:Interestingly, after earnings, the next day they've got an investor day, Tim. So it's a weird setup here. Well, and we only have investor days when we've got good news to talk about. So that's what I think. And this has been a nice little mini run here for Starbucks. I think the chart is interesting. Steve, what do you think about Starbucks? Yeah, I've said it many times. You buy the CEO, and Brian Nichol has really been that guy that you wanted to buy into. And he's had a tough time because I think he thought it was going to happen, his turnaround, a lot quicker than it is happening. But I think it's starting to happen.

45:42You're starting to see some upgrades. And once someone starts to upgrade it, I think it's followed by a bunch more on Wall Street. I'd be a buyer here.

45:50Tim Seymour:All right. Up next, final trades.

46:02Tim Seymour:Time for the final trade. Mike Coe. You know, the chart looks a little bit difficult, I would say, in Vistro. But right now, it's trading 18 times forward earnings. And that's a relatively good valuation. I think around$150 ,000, you want to start adding that one. Tim? Yeah, gold bug being tactical in gold here. So I want to make it clear. I'm selling calls in GDX. I'm not abandoning this trade. In fact, hedging up. But I also think gold's a little overdone here. Bonoan? Highest quality way to own AI infrastructure with real earnings and free cash flow behind it. Microsoft? Steve? Everyone be careful with the storm.

46:37Let's hope it under delivers come Sunday and Monday. I'm going with Darden.

46:42Tim Seymour:Yeah. Don't forget to use your knees and not your back when you're shut. Oh, wow. No. News you can use. Thanks for watching Fast. Have a good weekend. Mad Money starts now.

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