Markets Rally Ahead of Trump’s Iran Address… And Fading The Bounce 4/1/26

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17:23Melissa Lee:I want to grow the game so every kid can fall in love with soccer like I did. So I asked myself, what would you like the power to do? My answers inspired me to invent a pop-up soccer goal that can turn any basketball court into a street soccer pitch. Bank of America champion street soccer advocate Kyle Martino. and everyone who dares to ask, what would you like the power to do? Bank of America, proud to be the official bank of U.S. soccer and FIFA World Cup 2026. Bank of America and a member FDSP.

17:54Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. Nike's sinking over 15 % as weak guidance cast out on the sportswear giant's turnaround. The company warning of declining sales for the rest of the year due to weakness in China, where revenues are expected to drop 20%. This quarter alone, shares now trading at their lowest level in almost 12 years. For more, Guggenheim Senior Managing Director Simeon Siegel joins us on the Fast Line. He's got a buy rating and a$74 price target on Nike. Simeon, great to have you with us. Good to be back. I like that pause on the price target comment. I feel like caught you by surprise there.

18:26Tim Seymour:Well, no, I mean, I talked to an analyst yesterday who had a$120 price target on the stock. But$74 does seem, you know, much higher considering how the stock has traveled today. today. What are you seeing in terms of, you know, the progress that it's making? Because Elliott held himself that the progress is much slower. But what are the sort of the one or two things that you're seeing that really make you hold on to that buy rating, make you hold on specifically to the$74 price target? Because so many of your brethren on the street have lowered that today. Yeah, well, they're a lot smarter than I am.

18:59So we can start from there. But so listen, I mean, you and I talk about this a lot more so alike. I think there's a big distinction we need to make between what happened versus what they guided. And so you even started, I think you're exactly right. Their guidance is uninspiring. Their guidance is scary. And I think people are just sitting here with this shame on me if you fool me so many times and you're just losing patience. I think the amount of times today talking to investors that I heard, we're just losing patience. Life's too short. We're playing whack-a-mole. That's become the theme because to your point, all of a sudden we're talking about China being down 20%.

19:31I think what's interesting about that is this quarter, China was actually a lot better than people thought it was going to be. And that was this huge fear. Last quarter, you and I would have talked about being really worried that China is this kind of like endless black hole. And the reality is they put up still declines, but meaningfully less bad declines in China. And they put up really good margins. And what's interesting there is that echoes the fact that a year ago when you and I talked about Nike, there was no chance North America revenues were going to grow. And yet they're growing and they're growing nicely.

20:04And so I think what the narrative of the guidance is, oh, my God, it's going to keep getting worse. The reality of what they've done is tariff notwithstanding, these results this quarter were actually signs of moving in the right direction. Obviously, the stock doesn't show it because of that guidance. And that's important. And I think it makes a lot of sense. But if what we are seeing is that Elliott did turn around North America and now we're working through this China conversation, we're going to have to deal with EMEA. But he's putting these processes in place. That's where I think it could get interesting.

20:37It's Karen. Thanks for being on. I understand why they would maybe want to give guidance that's, you know, somewhat conservative, let's say. I would think everyone should. But this quarter, though, it was the quarter that ended February 28th. So none of this other stuff had happened yet. And China as well. They're really affected price of oil. So I'm wondering, 77, how do you get there? What's the multiple that you used and the EPS you used to get there? Yeah, absolutely. And so just to be fair, 77 went to 74. So give me those extra three bucks if we're going to go there. But I'm just I'm just kidding.

21:13But I think 70. There you go. We're playing with dollars here. So it's 30 times the number that we're looking at. But I would argue or I would I would hope and maybe that's the point of kind of what's asking about holding. So maybe it's the hope here that as we look at earnings power, I would hope that my number is too low. And so I think this idea of if China is conservative, as they normally do, they normally guide low. and then B, maybe there's a conversation there to be had. If you're not getting credit for guiding low and blowing it out of the water, maybe don't guide as low. And that's a separate conversation.

21:44But right now on my published numbers that I look at, I'm looking at 30 times in line with historical. And then you should push back on me and say, yeah, but they're not growing like they used to grow historically. And I think that's very fair. And then what I would look at and say, okay, do I believe they're under earning as they now re-embrace wholesale care? And you and I talked about a couple of years ago, as they went full force into D2C, Wholesale is the higher margin business for them. And that's very hard for us to really think about because you think if there's a middle person, they're making money.

22:13And that was the whole pitch of going direct to consumer was eliminate the middle person, cut out the retailer in between, make their money. And what we have learned is you don't cut out the middle person. You become the middle person, and the middle person doesn't make very much money. And so I think this notion of wholesale does give them distribution, but it also actually gives them the ability to regain that margin. If we can get to double-digit margin, my 30 multiple looks lower because my earnings look higher. And so I very much understand this is not linear and this is not happening tomorrow.

22:42But I think as we look through that, what we are seeing is we're watching demand creation go up. We're watching overhead go down. And that's what Nike used to win with. They used to win because they had great product and they had marketing budgets that no one could compete with. When they pivoted to direct and had to spend a lot of money on operating overhead because direct costs money, they had to pull back on demand creation. They gave up not only on product, but also on that marketing story. I think that's where, as we look forward and again, looking into next year, where we could start seeing this as being a lower number than it actually turns out to be.

23:13But that's why I was looking at the third quarter. What did they actually just do versus where's the guidance? Because the stock deserves to be where it is today based on that guidance. There's no questions asked about that. The question is whether the guidance proves conservative. All right.

23:25Melissa Lee:Here's a curveball for you, Simeon. I think in 2024, Bill Ackman bought like a quarter billion dollars worth of stock. That's as close to an activist, I think, as we've seen. I think he sold it out as well. I don't know what Phil Knight owns and controls. He can't be happy about this. Is this ripe, in your opinion, for an activist investor to step in? That's so funny. I was having this conversation about three other companies under my coverage literally today. Because as you look at a lot of these retailers, there's a lot of things that people look at. And you and I would say, you know what, it looks so obvious what we should change.

23:56It looks so obvious what to do. I don't know that I would say that for Nike. because I hear you, like it makes sense. We're looking at the disappointing share price, but in terms of what you and I, let's say, would do differently, what would we do? We'd want to focus on product. We want to focus on making sure we're speaking to the customer. We'd again return, I would argue, to being willing and able to spend on marketing to create that moat that no one else could fight against. But first and foremost, what we would do is recognize that we gave up so much share to these emerging competitors by walking away from retail partners, from Dick Sporting, from Foot Locker, from all of the wholesale partners.

24:31And we'd re-embrace that. And that's the first thing Elliot did. And so I think when you think about a business that does 45 to$50 billion of footwear and apparel revenues, which is unheard of. There's no one who comes close to that. Like when Nike is losing, they are still winning. They start from zero every year and get to 45 plus billion dollars of revenue. I think to move that shift does take a lot of time. And that's why I think it feels like, it's not the story. This isn't what they're saying. But it feels to me like what they're doing is they're triaging. Let's fix North America. Then let's fix China.

25:01Now let's fix EMEA. And then we'll get to Converse. Like, it feels like he's working his way down the road. But all we're seeing is this game of whack-a-mole.

25:08Tim Seymour:Simeon, great to speak with you. Thank you. Good to be back, guys. Simeon Siegel of Guggenheim. All right. So are you patient with this? No. Yeah. I sold it today. A couple of reasons. One, this was very, very disappointing. Two, I just, you know, you gain some objectivity from not owning it. And three, I'm going to take a tax loss. So I have in my calendar 31 days, whatever it is, May 4th is the first trading day I could buy it back. I'll relook at it then. Maybe I'll feel differently. But in the meantime, it's sort of maximum frustration. Yeah, along with a lot of other people out there. So that may be the bottom, just to mark it.

25:48Tim Seymour:So we crossed well below 50.

25:51Guy Adami:What's the outlook here? You have a breakout or a breakdown when you're sitting at 52 highs or lows. This is the opposite of a breakout. It's broken down today on heavy volume, on news with a gap. It's usually, I mean, that's good technique. It's very hard to, there's nothing wrong with being wrong. It's staying wrong. We all have to at some point say, this is just not right. I'm in the wrong direction. Go the other way. Selling something that's down, taking the loss, it's the way to do it. There is no technique known to say it's cheap. It's gone down so much I should buy it. And speaking of, and it's not about one man or one woman, the high on the street, there's a price target of$120.

26:28Tim Seymour:Yeah.

26:28Guy Adami:The low on the street, there's$23. How could one man or woman think the stock, you could sell, you study the sneakers, study consumer trends, disposable income, better than it is, worse than Puma. And one person can say it's worth$120 and one can say it's worth$23. What the what? It's absurd.

26:44Melissa Lee:Yeah, I agree. You know, Simeon said they're going to get to Converse last. They're going to fix that last. This guy, what sort of innovation was it in the 50s when they introduced the Congress all-star that you started wearing? Well, I will tell you, since you know, it was Chuck Taylor's. Yeah. That was groundbreaking sneakers. The canvas Chucky Tees, we used to call them. Yeah. Okay, just checking. I was scared. I mean, like, you know. I'll add something if you'd like, Melissa. I mean, I'm usually the one with the tomfoolery. But here's the good news, I think, if there is. Traded about eight times normal volume today, which we haven't seen Nike trade over 100 million shares in quite some time.

27:15Melissa Lee:That, to me, speaks to at least the beginnings of capitulation. So maybe the end is somewhat near her and Nike.

27:22Tim Seymour:There's a lot more Fast Monday to come. Here's what's coming up next. Countdown to liftoff. SpaceX confidentially filing to go public. The banks lining up to get a piece of the IPO. And just how big the rocket company's offering could be. Plus, believe the market bounce. Why our next guest doubts the turnaround. and how he's positioning for even more uncertainty to come. You're watching Fast Money, live from the NASDAQ market side in Times Square. We're back right after this.

27:59Tim Seymour:Your data lives everywhere. On-prem, in the cloud, across apps. Bring it all together with EverPure. The platform that acts like a living system, delivering the latest in data performance, security, and innovation without ever slowing you down. sophisticated enough to anticipate your ever-changing data needs yet simple enough to feel like second nature tame your data chaos with ever pure and make storage and data management the simplest part of your business visit everpuredata.com to learn more from college send-offs to retirement dreams life is filled with many important milestones and making sure you have a plan in place to protect the people you love can give you confidence for whatever comes next State Farm Life Insurance can help protect your family's financial well-being through life's milestones.

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28:57Melissa Lee:I want to grow the game so every kid can fall in love with soccer like I did. So I asked myself, what would you like the power to do? My answers inspired me to invent a pop-up soccer goal that can turn any basketball court into a street soccer pitch. Bank of America champion street soccer advocate Kyle Martino and everyone who dares to ask, what would you like the power to do? Bank of America, proud to be the official bank of U.S. soccer and FIFA World Cup 2026. Bank of America N.A., member FDSC.

29:29Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. The countdown for NASA's Artemis II mission has begun. The rocket set to launch from the Kennedy Space Center in Florida in just about an hour, carrying four astronauts on the trip around the moon. It would be the first time astronauts have returned to the vicinity of the moon in over 50 years. Meantime, Elon Musk's SpaceX, a partner to the Artemis missions, confidentially filed for an IPO today, sources telling CNBC. The rocket company is eyeing a potential valuation of over$1.75 trillion. This is according to Bloomberg, which would make it the sixth largest company in the country, bigger even than Tesla.

30:07Tim Seymour:They could be seeking to raise about$75 billion of that$1.75 trillion valuation. So it's a small slice of what it is actually valued. What do you make of it?

30:15Melissa Lee:You know, I wonder what it means for Tesla, actually, because if you were offering me a share of Tesla right here, like$1.5 trillion or a share of SpaceX at like$1.75 or something, I'd take SpaceX every day of the week. You know, and I wonder what sort of focus that, you know, Elon might place on SpaceX. You just mentioned Artemis. I mean, they are going to be a huge commercial partner of everything that NASA is doing. Starlink is a monster. If you think about XAI, I have no idea what's going on there. But they put, what, a$250 billion valuation or something like that? Anthropic is probably$400.

30:49Melissa Lee:I'm sure if you want to give the little pixie dust for the space stuff or anything like that, you know, you probably could find your way to a trillion and a half dollars. Tesla made its all-time high, I think, in December. it's gone from basically 500 down to the current levels now. So maybe in some weird way, this move in Tesla to the downside, which we haven't talked about now in weeks, is maybe some precursor to this IPO. And maybe you buy Tesla on the actual event. Maybe that's the setup here, to be along Tesla on the back of the SpaceX IPO.

31:18Tim Seymour:So you think that Tesla has been the ATM for this as opposed to other mag-setting stocks?

31:24Melissa Lee:I don't think that's unreasonable to think that. So it's interesting how big the private deals are now. And I love that this was confidentially. Right. Except that they whispered to Bloomberg. Except every single person knows. So this is this. OK, 75 billion is actually not that much when you put it in the context of what OpenAI just raised at 120 billion dollars. And you had Anthropic raised, decent raised, but nowhere near that. I think it could be interesting. I don't know. If you had the same question, would you rather, I'd rather SpaceX than Tesla if that is the valuation, one and a quarter.

32:03How does the Tesla chart look to you?

32:05Guy Adami:A pair of twos for me. Oh, okay.

32:07Melissa Lee:Wait a second.

32:08Tim Seymour:Were we playing the would you rather game? No, but Karen knows a lot. I understand this. You didn't even flinch. No, I don't. I give her dispensation. Coming up, stocks surging again as investor optimism for an end to the Iran war continues to grow. But our next guest says the market rally may have already gotten ahead of itself while he is calling the bounce premature and what he is doing instead. Fast Money is back in tune. Missed a moment of fast? Catch us anytime on the go. Follow the Fast Money podcast. We're back right after this.

32:45Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. Stocks continuing their bounce to start the new month and quarter. The Dow jumping more than 200 points. The S &P up nearly three quarters of a percent, and the Nasdaq climbing more than a percent. Crypto asset manager CoinShares making its U.S. debut on the Nasdaq today via SPAC. Shares dropping nearly 22 percent in its first day as Bitcoin and the broader crypto trade continue to struggle. Bitcoin trading below$70 ,000. Raymond James upgrading Disney to an outperform rating. Analysts there establishing a price target of$115, saying they believe the stock remains historically cheap.

33:17Tim Seymour:Take a look at Microsoft, down two-tenths of a percent. The only member of the MAG-7 in the red today. The stock is down 23 % already this year. We don't want to pick on Microsoft, but really the stock performance has been terrible of late. On a day when the markets were up, you know, in the NASDAQ in particular, for it to be down, sort of stands out. No bounce.

33:37Melissa Lee:I mean, it's had a couple bounces, but the bounces have been short-lived. I mean, this is another stock that made its all-time high in the fall of last year. I mean, look at what the tape has done over just the last couple days. and Microsoft, you'd think you'd see a relief rally. You're not. So, again, I understand it's part of software that is not loved right now, but Microsoft might be one of the five most important companies in the world and it has not traded well now for quite some time.

33:58Guy Adami:And a direct overlay to Oracle. I mean, two very prominent names that cannot catch a bounce. And then the two other very prominent names that were sort of saying something all along, semis up, up, up, but Ivago and NVIDIA, dead flat, six months. These are issues.

34:13Tim Seymour:All right. Our next guest suggests we are in the midst of a premature market rally. Michael Kantopoulos is head of multi-asset macro investing at Janice Henderson Investors. All right. Michael, welcome. Thank you. Congratulations. Come on. All right. The deal is official today. It is already been purchased by Janice Henderson. So congratulations. Nice new title, too. Thank you. Why is this rally premature? Well, I think, listen, there's a ton of uncertainty still out there, Most importantly around inflation with oil prices being higher. I think what we saw is in April of last year, you really had a bottoming of core PCE.

34:49And, you know, since then, inflation has been trending higher. The economy was quite strong going into this war. You saw ISM prices paid today was through the roof. And oil prices are certainly not helping. And so I think inflation is going to be elevated for some time. Investors aren't giving that enough due. Rates probably need to go higher. and that should suck out some liquidity from the market.

35:11Tim Seymour:Walk us through why you think inflation will stick, because I feel like that is the out-of-consensus view and that most people think that this is a shock and that when the war is over, things will go back to normal and inflation levels will return to what they were prior. So why do you have that view? Well, I do think that's a possibility. But even if oil went back down to the 60s or 70s, you're still going to be well above 2 % on inflation. And you were going into the war. And I think people forget that. You know, we'd had we didn't think the Fed was going to cut going into March. We think if things go back to the way they were, they're still not going to cut.

35:49The economy is quite strong. Earnings growth is pretty strong. Inflation doesn't seem to be trending towards two percent. Certainly not the inflation the Fed cares about. And so there's a chance that oil does go back down. You see headline come down a little bit from, you know, the four percent estimates or whatever. some of the economists out there are saying today. But it's hard to envision where you get to 2 % without a real growth shock. So if let's say Warsh becomes the new chair and there's some resolution with what's happening in the Middle East, do you think it would only be labor that would get the Fed to cut or just Warsh cut no matter what?

36:27Well, I think there's what should happen and what will happen. I think if worse cuts in labor doesn't weaken materially, that's going to be a mistake. And I think the markets are going to punish the Fed pretty meaningfully in that case. And the Biden vigilantes are going to come out and you're going to see much higher rates. You saw that last year or two years ago in 2024 when the Fed cut 50 rates went higher. You saw really since they've cut this go around rates have gone generally higher. And I think if they were to do it again, given current growth levels and inflation, rates are going higher.

36:58So I do think labor is most likely going to be the fulcrum that determines whether or not the Fed cuts. But obviously, if there's some intervention from the administration, then you could have a mistake.

37:13Melissa Lee:What do much higher rates look like, 4.5%, 4.3%, is it 5 % in a 10-year? Yeah, I think it depends on really two things. One, if the Fed cuts in the context of 3.5%, 4 % inflation, I think you can go well north of 5%. If you kind of go back to where we were pre-war and you're just hovering around 3, 3.2 percent, something in that neighborhood, now four and a half, four and three quarters, I think that's probably where you could settle out. So it's higher from here, I think, on the rate side. It's just a matter of to what degree.

37:44Tim Seymour:So with this backdrop, you say raise cash? Yeah, so we're raising cash. That sounds like a bunker trade, Michael. What's that? That sounds like a bunker trade. I wouldn't necessarily say it's a bunker trade. For me, a bunker trade would be shifting our entire portfolio to staples, health care, utilities, really defensive positioning. We actually maintained a I wouldn't necessarily say a pro cyclical stance, but we stayed, you know, overweight emerging markets, overweight international, overweight industrials and energy and materials in the U.S. on an equity only basis. But in our balanced portfolio, we did raise cash to account for uncertainty.

38:21And if the world goes back to where it was, those international plays, emerging markets, industrials, the broadening that we saw going into March, we'll carry our portfolio forward. But if obviously the bottom falls out and you have a big growth shock, we'll be happy we had some cash, too.

38:37Tim Seymour:Michael, great to see you. Thank you. Likewise. Michael Cantopoulos of Janice Henderson. Coming up, which one's the easiest pill to swallow? The pros and cons of farmers' oral obesity drugs after the long-awaited approval of Lilly's latest offering. what it means for the biggest players in the space when Fast Money returns.

39:00Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. Eli Lilly rising almost 4 % after the FDA greenlit its weight loss pill, Fundeo. It is the second GLP-1 pill to hit the market following Novo Nordic's launch of oral Wagovi earlier this year. For more on how the drugs stack up to one another, let's get to Angelica Peebles. Angelica. Hey, Melissa. Well, Lilly will launch Fundeo just three months behind Novo's Wegovi pill, and Fondaio isn't as effective. It delivered about 12 % weight loss at the highest dose on average in a phase three trial. And in a separate trial, the Wegovi pill showed around 17 % weight loss. Now, both of those are less than Lilly's weekly shot Zeppound, which has consistently produced more than 20 % of weight loss in studies.

39:39And both of those pills will cost about the same for people paying out of pocket. They'll both start at about $149. And the highest dose of Lily's pill is$50 more a month than Novo's. And where Lily thinks that it has the edge is convenience and accessibility. Fondeo can be taken at any time of day and at the same time as other medicines, whereas Novo's pill needs to be taken first thing in the morning on an empty stomach. That's one thing that doctors say could be an inconvenience. And Lily can make more of its pill since it's a small molecule. And Lily says that it'll be able to supply more than 40 markets where it's expecting approval over the next year.

40:13And international sales are expected to play a major role in Fondeo, reaching the$15 billion that analysts expect by 2030. Now, back in the U.S., I do want to talk about another company we're watching. That's Kylara Therapeutics. They're seeking to go public. And this is a company that's backed by well-known biotech investors like Bain and Atlas. And they built this company by licensing experimental obesity drugs from China's Hongrei. So that's one to keep an eye on, Mel.

40:39Tim Seymour:Yep. And then there's structured therapeutics, of course. Angelica, thank you. Angelica Peebles. So there could potentially be other competitors that we don't, we're not, you know, in the market soon between GPCR and perhaps Kyler. Kyler is, by the way, still experimental.

40:55Melissa Lee:With each passing day, you know, in the boardrooms, it's saying we've got to get in the game. How do we get in the game? We have to make an acquisition. What's the acquisition? Structure Therapeutics is one. Viking is another one we've talked about. They have an oral. So we rarely say things like that, but I think it's almost a foregone conclusion that those two names at some point get acquired this year. Yeah. Yes. It's the gene. The gene might be dang. Yes. Right. No, I agree with everything Guy's saying. That's why I own it. It's just let me back up one second, though. It's interesting to me that differential in weight loss between those two drugs.

41:29And yet the expectation is really that Lily's drug is going to do a lot better. Yeah. It shouldn't, but I don't know. Novo, you know, that's the other, another N in my bedang, NG, which now stands for no good. But I think Structured Therapeutics,$2 billion market cap right now. Now you are going to have to eat some additional expenses as they can hopefully get to a place where they have a drug to sell. But it just seems like this is an enormous opportunity. That is not a lot of money for a big cap farmer or even a medium cap farmer.

42:05Tim Seymour:Like$6 billion or something? I'm thinking I just threw that out there of, you know, that wouldn't be a ton. And the whole enterprise value now is$2 billion.

42:13Guy Adami:I mean, the real question for Lilly, of course, is you could not have a bigger run up over the past 10 years. And then yet its relative performance of the market peaked 18 months ago. It is still below where it was in the autumn of 2024. So is it all priced in or is much of it priced in? And is this sideways grinding for the better part of two years reflecting that? That's my hunch. A pair of twos for me.

42:35Tim Seymour:A pair of twos on Lily. Coming up, they're more than great coats. Why the chart master says shares of specialty retailer Burlington are heading higher from here. And here's a sneak peek at the Kramer cam. Jim is chatting exclusively with the CEO of research and analytics firm Semi Analysis. Catch the full interview. Top of the hour on Mad Money. More Fast Money in two.

43:02Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. Shares of specialty retailer Burlington up 14.5 % this year. And the chart master says the stock has more room to run. So, Carter Braxton Worth, what do you see?

43:13Guy Adami:Let's get right to it. So, three charts, they're all identical. This one has no lines, no drawings, no judgments. But the first thing that jumps out surely is relative performance. Stock market's down 10%. A lot of retailers from Gap to others struggling. Macy's in this at or near 52 week highs toying with a breakout. Second of three charts, one way to draw the lines. That's the prospective breakout. I've got a nice arrow here and I think that's what's coming. A breakout indeed. Third and final chart, just another way to draw the lines. These are subjective. It's what my eye sees. Others might see something different but again I think the clear setup here is a stock that is exhibiting bullish price-fying correlation, an impressive relative thing, toying with the prospects of a breakout to new 52-week highs.

44:00Tim Seymour:All right, Carter, why don't you walk back here? We're back. Walk and talk. Swagger. We've done that for a while. If you overlay the fundamentals. How do we do that with the cameras?

44:10Melissa Lee:The steadicam. A steadicam. Oh, wow.

44:12Tim Seymour:That's a great job. Only we can take a picture of the steadicam. Anyway. So here's what my eye sees. Consumer-seeking bargains. Yes.

44:18Melissa Lee:And TJ Maxx has been a monster. We talk about these names. If our crack staff in EC can give us now a five-year chart, you will see, Carter, because I know you know this, we're up against the levels we saw in the summer of 2021. So the potential for a breakout is clear. There's also a potential for a massive double top in this thing.

44:38Tim Seymour:Dan?

44:39Guy Adami:Indeed. No, that's exactly right. And one another one has been raw stores. Indeed, breakouts. So I think this goes the way of the others.

44:47Melissa Lee:Yeah, I think you want to stay away from consumer discretionary right now. All of it.

44:50Tim Seymour:Yeah. Did you just see him chart? Was that not convincing to you?

44:53Melissa Lee:It was amazing. But now we're talking about this K-shaped thing, and guys brought this up. You know, the American Express has gotten killed. The COF has gotten killed. It just seems like a weird place to be with the consumer right now.

45:03Tim Seymour:Visa was a 52-week low today.

45:05Melissa Lee:And Massey, MassCard, and Visa both look when they made their all-time highs. I'm on TJX. It's not that different than that story. It's all-time high today. Sticking with it, it's not cheap, though. Did you notice Visa had a 52-week low today? We did not. Dan and I talk, we all talk at various points. But I guess the point you would say is there's no credit risk there, but it's like consumer transactions. Transactions. The transaction volumes. And compression on the fees and stuff.

45:29Tim Seymour:And international transactions in particular. All right. Up next, final trades.

45:44Tim Seymour:And it's time now for the final trade. Let's go around the horn. Carter Braxton Worth. Got to go with Burlington for the breakout. Karen Feinerman. Yes, I am always long, which I say, but I am also now long some S &P puts. Want some protection. Dan Nathan.

46:00Melissa Lee:Yeah, yesterday, final trade. I thought you might see a capitulation in Nike. It did not happen. It got really bad. I'm looking to the upside here. Maybe some calls. I don't know.

46:11Tim Seymour:Don't forget, by the way, President Trump addressing the nation at 9 p.m. Three hours. I already forgot. Yeah, about the Iran war. Passover. It is Passover as well. To all our people.

46:20Melissa Lee:Right, yes. We have some time to kill here. Oh, yeah. So we can just sort of ramble on a bit. Well, the Mets lost for you Met fans out there. I'm sorry. They're meandering at 500, which get used to it because that's going to be how they finish the season. Tim Seymour is watching right now. Yankees in Seattle, Mel winning, I think, four zip. Not giving up a lot of runs early in the season. And my final trade for you is Viking Therapeutics. Looking forward to seeing you tomorrow night, Melissa, on Fast Money.

46:45Tim Seymour:I will not be here. Happy Passover to all of you who celebrate. Thank you for watching Fast. Mad Money starts right now.

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47:25Tim Seymour:I'm honored to make history and to make my community proud. Oh, what a brilliant tackle from Naomi Kerma. What would you like the power to do? Bank of America, proud to be the official bank of U.S. soccer. Bank of America and a member FDSE.