Markets Rip Higher On Tariff Pause… And Why China Isn’t Getting Any Relief 04/09/25

0:01Live from the Nasdaq market site in the heart of New York City's Times Square this is fast money Here's what's on tap tonight. A pause that refreshes stocks with an historic rip higher on the back of President Trump, putting reciprocal tariffs with over 75 nations on hold. The Dow climbing over 2 ,900 points. The Nasdaq surging 12 percent, staggering. Another S &P 500 closing up another 9.5 percent higher today. But can you trust this rebound? We'll debate that. Plus, Trump versus China. While tariffs are on hold for other countries, China's getting hit even harder. President Trump upping the ante again against Beijing.

0:34So how will this battle between Trump and she play out? Former Morgan Stanley Asia Chair Stephen Roach is standing by. And later we'll go inside the rebound sector by sector from retail to airlines to pharma, banks and more. A must-see hour coming up. I'm Melissa Lee coming to you live from Studio B at the NASDAQ on the desk tonight. Tim Seymour, Bono and Eisen, Guy Adami and Michael Schumacher of Wells Fargo Securities. Welcome, Michael. We start off with a pause heard round the world. Stocks roaring higher midday after President Trump said he authorized a pause on most tariffs. The S &P, which had seesawed between gains and losses all morning, surging more than 9 percent on the news, its best day since October 2008.

1:10The Dow swinging 3 ,500 points from low to high, clocking its biggest point gain on record. The Nasdaq surging 12 percent, its best day since January 2001. Even the small cap Russell 2000, up nearly 9 percent. Take a look at mega cap tech. Tesla soaring 22 percent. Apple up a blistering 15 percent, its biggest gain since 1998. Together, the magnificent seven added$1.8 trillion in market cap today alone. But even with today's gains, major markets still down sharply in the week since the tariffs were first announced. And most are still down more than 10 percent from their records. For the latest on what has been coming out of the White House all day, and it's been a lot, let's bring in Eamon Javers.

1:51Eamon. Hey there, Melissa. You're right. The headlines have been coming fast and furious from this White House. We've been getting some insight into the president's thinking over the past couple of hours as to why he made this decision when he did. He said he was watching the bond market, some anxiety there. He's watching financial markets. He said people were getting a little yippy in markets. And he also said that he was watching Jamie Dimon on television earlier today, who was making the case that, you know, this could be a recession if these tariffs stay on. All of that clearly brewing in the president's mind.

2:22And just within the past little while, he's been in the Oval Office taking questions from reporters. He said in there that he views this as the top end for tariffs on China. He said, I can't imagine putting additional tariffs on China. He also said on U.S. Steel that he wants to keep U.S. Steel American. He doesn't want to see that company sold to the Japanese. That moved that stock as well. And then he also talked a little bit about this idea of whether this was a negotiation or not. He was asked by a reporter in the Oval Office why it was that his aides and staff members here at the White House were saying this is not a negotiation when the president today is saying it is a negotiation.

2:59Here's how he answered that question a short time ago. A lot of times it's not a negotiation until it is. And that happens. And, you know, I said outside that you have to have flexibility to do it right. And that's what we have. We brought everybody to the table. And it may not be a negotiation. It may not last. I mean, you know, things may be asked that I think are not fair to us. So the president's saying there of this 90-day pause, it may not be a negotiation. It may not last. So the devil clearly is going to be in the details here in terms of all of these 75 countries that have approached the White House about the idea of negotiation.

3:36And now, Melissa, what you have in terms of market uncertainty is this question of all of these simultaneous negotiations going on while the tariffs are paused. We're going to get a lot of, you know, sort of blips and readouts and movement in all of those negotiations over the next 90 days. And so all of that is presumably going to be influencing financial markets as we go through the next three months. Eamon, thank you. Eamon Javers joining us from the White House. The bottom line here is we still don't know what's going to happen in 90 days. We know that the 10 percent tariffs are going to still be in place across the board.

4:08Are we better off now, Guy, than we were before? Through the lens of the market, yes. So a couple of things. I think the stock market was probably annoying this administration. I think the bond market specifically last night scared the administration, or at least it should have. And the fact that President Trump says, you know, he watched the bond market, he listened to Jamie Dimon and he made a decision based on that. I actually admire it because things were going a little bit sideways for a period of time. So that's the good news. The bad news, I think, is the move that we saw today rivals moves we've seen historically.

4:40So 15 of the greatest moves of this magnitude, eight of them took place in the 1920s and the early 1930s, some of them during a great financial crisis and some of them during long-term capital. So I'm not suggesting we're at any of those levels, but these are the types of moves we've seen in times of uncertainty. I'll also say this quickly. On Monday, none of us were breathless here. We said the market traded down to a four-year trend line. Carterworth pulled the chart up. We said at least in the short term, that's a good level to trade from. We actually said this S &P could trade up to 5 ,500 over the next few weeks.

5:12I didn't think it would happen over two days, but here we are, Mel. What did you make of the move in the Treasury market over the past couple days, Michael? But most notably, I mean, we're at 4.35 right now on the 10-year yield. Pre-Liberation Day, you know, the close of 4.1, we were at 4.17, so we're still higher here. Yeah, it's interesting, Melissa. The 10-year began this year at 4.55, 4.60, kind of in that ballpark. But the move the last couple of days downright scary. So there's been a lot of selling of cash treasuries really throughout the last week, eight, nine days, something like that.

5:44Generally speaking, that was offset by flows and derivative markets, but not in the last couple of days. People were just saying I'm out. Really, it was a flight from balance sheet. Any sort of transactions, any trades positions are required. A lot of balance sheet. People like to talk about hedge fund basis trades being liquidated, things of that sort. But there was really no bid coming out. And also you had the 10 year auction today. 30-year bond auction tomorrow. Talk about raising the U.S. Treasury's funding costs. This was it. So I can understand why Trump reacted to that. Yeah, I agree. It's great to be unliberated.

6:15And it does feel as if this is an equity market day. It's an equity market story, but it's really the bond market. And the bond market and even the currency markets are pushing us around. In other words, if we looked at, you know, 1245 even, the bond market was telling us something. And it's definitely, you know, I think something we need to listen to. All right. Well, the driver for today's massive market turnaround, the president's announcement of the reciprocal tariff pause for 75 plus countries. One of the key players in the middle of today's decision, Commerce Secretary Howard Ludnick. He joins us live from the White House right now.

6:46Mr. Secretary, great to have you with us. What a great day for America, isn't it? It is a great day. If you take a look, though, at the pre-Liberation Day close on the S &P 500, we're still lower from where we were then. And we did suffer, you know, not only declines in the equity markets, but also, you know, some crazy moves in the fixed income markets. Did the market reaction cause the administration to rethink its tariff plan? Absolutely not. Absolutely not. The tariff plan for the president. Look, he's trying to fix the fundamental trade imbalances that have been going on for this country for 35 years.

7:25I mean, we were just in the Oval Office, and he said, I don't blame China. I blame the people who sat behind the desk in the Oval Office for letting this occur. It is time to take back the ability to trade with America, and Donald Trump is leading the charge to do that. We understand that. That certainly has been the administration's thesis this whole time, Howard. But at the same time, we had Wall Street, your former compatriots, come out, raising the odds for recession, lowering price targets across the board. There wasn't any element of that feedback that entered the thinking because some would posit that if Mr.

8:04Trump and the administration actually listened to Wall Street and took a look at the reaction, the financial markets, the global markets for that matter, they would find solace in what the administration is doing. Look, President Trump made it clear that he's got a reset trade. He's got allies and foes, both, friends and foes. So what happened is we have so many countries who want to do deals with us. It's just not possible to talk to all over 75 countries coming in who want to redo trade, who are taking a good hard look at their trading, their rules, their non-tariff trade barriers, their tariffs, their subsidies, their currency manipulation.

8:46they're finally willing to say, we'll make a better deal with the United States of America. Can we just have the time to do it? And the president listened to them. And of course, China took the exact opposite path and you see what's happening. So if China's going to take that opposite path, the president's going the other direction. But for all those countries who wanted to work it out with the United States and make sure they create a fair trading model for the United States, President Trump was ready and willing to sit down with them and make a deal with them. And that's the position we're in now.

9:17According to reports, you met with the various bank CEOs over the past couple of days, and they all expressed their reservations about how the policy was playing out and the impact on the markets. I'm curious, because you've worn that hat as well not too long ago, Howard. And would you think that a 90-day pause would cause businesses to then resume spending, resume deals, resume their activity as they had planned to do at the beginning of the year? I mean, is that enough to sort of spur them to get back on track? I think it is clear. People want to come and build factories and reassure their production in America.

9:58That's why the president talks about the huge commitment of building in America. So the companies are going to come back to America. The fact is these countries understand that it was time to rethink the way they trade with America. But I'm talking about U.S. businesses just doing business here, you know, in terms of, you know, for instance, Walmart pulling its guidance. I mean, what will give them? Do you think a 90-day pause is going to give companies enough confidence to actually give guidance, to be secure in how they're planning for their businesses for the year, headcounts, CapEx, etc.? I think it's important for companies to understand that the countries that they do their business in matter.

10:44If you do business in China or you do business with a country that basically is just a proxy for China, that you're going to have to deal with the fact that President Trump does not think we're being treated correctly. But if you're doing business in other countries, really understand the country you're doing business in, understand their relationship and push them to make sure their relationship with the United States of America is fair and correct. And that will be good for business. So what you're going to see is the greatest set of announcements of companies going to build in America. And of course, they're going to build in America.

11:17That's what's happening. And you're going to feel it all across this great nation. People are going to build in America. And the job creation in America is going to be fantastic. You just have to let Donald Trump drive the car, drive the ship, drive the plane, however you want to call it. Donald Trump is in charge. He understands how to do this. And no one could do it better. And that's just what the market told you today. I understood they doubted it. I understood they were uncertain. But that's what you get. Never bet against Donald Trump. Mr. Ludnick, Mr. Secretary, does the administration feel that every trade deficit by definition means we're getting ripped off or losing?

11:55I mean, I would submit that we could be getting ripped off sometimes. But a trade deficit in and of itself doesn't mean we're losing. By the way, I know you know this. We're 5 % of the global population. We're 30 % of global GDP. So it's really hard to say we're getting totally ripped off. Well, look, you have to look at things like Europe, right? Their population is bigger than ours, right? Their GDP is a little smaller. Why would they have a$235 billion trading surplus with us? Why would we have a deficit with Europe? It's not their cost of production. It's not the regulatory framework. They're the same, if not worse, than we are in every way.

12:32It's because they're not having fair trade with us, and that needs to be addressed. So what happens is everywhere the leadership of the United States blinked before, some country came and used it as a launch pad to do business in America. I mean, why is Europe doing so much business with China? Because it was basically a tariff arbitrage. Sell to Europe and have European companies then sell to us. So the idea is let's end that. Let's call it for what it is, which is Chinese companies, they do business through China. They do business through Vietnam. They do business through Thailand. Come on, they do business through Malaysia.

13:09We've got to really address it the way it is and say we want fair trade. We want to be treated the way we deserve to be treated. And that's what's happening now. So we have tariff, 10 % tariff around the world today. And we are calling out China because they are going in a different direction. We're going to work with each of these countries. And we're going to come up with a great deal for America. And hopefully a deal that they think is appropriate. and off we're going to go for the golden age of America. It's coming now. You feel it now. Finally, someone is behind the desk in the Oval Office who's going to protect America and the world.

13:46And it's coming and it's coming now. And I tell you what, it feels great. Mr. Secretary, I guess the question on how we are focusing on country by country and you talk about bringing jobs back to America, there's some sense, and please clarify this for me, are we trying to re-industrialize America? and are we also looking to have a trade balance? Well, I mean, it seems to me we re-industrialized, we industrialized America 150 years ago and that jobs went overseas because it was more efficient to do that. And we're also at record unemployment. So I'm just trying to understand how all this makes sense together.

14:22So we can't be a nation that invents everything but has everything built somewhere else. Eventually, you become subservient to the people who build things for you. If you make nothing, but all you do is think about it, then someone else will be the builder. And if you also allow these giant trade deficits and you let yourself have budget deficits, what ends up happening is the rest of the world also owns you. In 1980, we owned more of the rest of the world than they owned of us. And now the rest of the world owns 18 trillion net more of the United States than we own of them. So 60 % of our GDP is now owned by outsiders.

15:05It's time for that to be right-sized and fixed. We're going to reassure great industrialization, bring back those jobs here, and we're going to strengthen America so that America plays the right role in the world and is not just the biggest consumer who overspends and eventually is owned by the rest of the world. That is just not going to happen. My grandchildren had a great day today because my grandchildren had a great day when Donald Trump was elected president. That's what's changing. It's America for the long term of America. Someone had to do it. And you're feeling that's what's happening now.

15:41When you talk about reindustrialization, Mr. Secretary, what do you want to be made here? I mean, how do you envision that manufacturing economy of the future? Are we talking about bringing back textiles, T-shirts, sneakers, home goods, appliances? What? Everybody always talks about these silly things. Some would argue that those are lower value goods, and you want those goods to be manufactured abroad so that the United States can manufacture higher value goods. And who's going to work those jobs? So let's just go through this. So you have TSMC, right? So semiconductors. If you think about what is a semiconductor, every button you push means it has a chip.

16:25It may not have the newest chip that's in an iPhone, but it has an old chip, your microwave oven, your refrigerator, your alarm clock. Everything's got a chip in it. And that chip is all made in Asia, right? Taiwan makes virtually everything. Taiwan is 81 miles from China, and China has said we're going to take it over. Imagine if China went and took over Taiwan and every single thing that we want to produce that has a plug, that has a button, is now owned by China and we have nothing. It is outrageous that we allow that. I get that argument. That's a national security argument. There's no national security argument for bringing back a client.

17:02All right. Well, how about pharmaceuticals? You got a problem with pharmaceuticals? You don't have a problem with pharmaceuticals. How about how about steel and aluminum? You have a problem with steel and aluminum, right? You need you need all these things. And what's happening is you need to address it in bulk. You need to address the fact that we can't sell a car in Japan or Korea or Europe. You know, it's just so blatantly unfair. At some point, our economy, our farmers need to be able to sell corn. Our beef, our ranchers need to be able to sell beef. We've got to have the world stop taking advantage of us to the tune of$1.2 trillion and have our economy unleashed and be unshackled, finally unshackled.

17:44Our farmers have no idea what it's like to actually have a full world to sell to. Our ranchers, our seafood and our fishermen, they have no idea. These will be fundamental changes. That's why Donald Trump says make America great again. That's why he says bring back the golden age. It's really allowing the United States of America to sell its goods to the world. We're only selling them to ourselves, really. We have a$1.2 trillion trade deficit that means everybody else sells to us. And we're not allowed to sell to them. Doesn't that seem unfair to you if you're in business? Doesn't that seem unfair when he unleashes America on the rest of the world and gets fair trade with the rest of the world?

18:25America's GDP will grow. Our jobs will explode. Better jobs, higher paying jobs. That's the point. We shouldn't be growing our GDP 2 percent. We should be growing our GDP 4 and 5 and 6 percent. And no one's ever thought about it. And no one's ever tried. And that's what we're doing here. And that's what Donald Trump is doing. And we are all, all of us who work for Donald Trump, we are his spokesmen. But he is the driver. And don't get confused. Donald Trump is the driver of the policy. He authorized just the other day to negotiate. He authorized yesterday, and he came out with this policy today.

19:02And it was not the policy before then. He also seems to be a great stock pundit, Mr. Secretary. Earlier this morning, before the pause, he put out a message saying it's a great time to buy, and here we are. Here we are, much higher. I'd always bet on Donald Trump. Every time I'd always bet on Donald Trump. He also wrote DJT, which is a ticker for his media company. No, no, no. Every text he does. Every text he sends to me, that's his name. But that was a great time to buy the market, right? I mean, uncanny. Look, Donald Trump understands that America is the greatest country. All right? We are the greatest country, and we have the capacity for incredible greatness.

19:42but someone needs to take the shackles off. Someone needs to let our farmers sell corn to India. I mean, we had Modi come to visit us, 1.4 billion people, and we can't sell a bushel of corn. It just is not right. It's time for fair trade, fair to America. It's been fair to the rest of the world. It just hasn't been fair to us. All right. Mr. Secretary, always great to see you. Thank you for your time. Thank you. Great to see you. Howard Lutnick. Um, 5633 was the S &P 500 close on 4-1. We are still below that. We're 700 points, in fact. Didn't the market rally today because we paused this policy?

20:24There's still, I mean. I'm trying to understand the cause and effect here. I mean, if this is a great day because markets rallied, markets rallied because, in fact, we paused what seemed to be an issue. Terrible. I'm just trying to, you know, I'm just trying to, let's call it what it is. Then call what it is on the way down. Let's call it what it is. I mean, and again, it was a day where the market felt like it was great to not be freed. So, you know, that's the dynamic. I'll say something else about today's markets move. It doesn't really instill a lot of confidence in markets. And if you think about how there's a lot of retail investors out there that really, I mean, this has been, and I would just caution that if you think about the 12 % move in the NASDAQ today, the last move, I mean, this pretty much matches the day that we had.

21:10I think it was December 3rd in 2008. And then the next two days, you were down 4.8 percent and then down 6.6 percent. Now, history is very different. They're very different conditions. But I think, you know, what markets have done, and we've talked about this, Michael's referencing the volatility in the bond market. This is the kind of stuff that doesn't really instill confidence. I tend to agree. if you look at the path of how we got here, ultimately we all lay out these, whether it's support levels, Fibonacci retracements, 20 % bear market thresholds, you don't really get to decide how you get to that entry point.

21:46So kind of having somewhat of a systematized way of entering the market does make a lot of sense here. I think Tim really hits a nail on the point. We talk about confidence and we have seen a pullback in the VIX. You call it confidence, you want to call it fear, you want to call it volatility. I mean, they're all essentially, you know, pointing to the same situation. And ultimately, you know, we still lack clarity on what these trade agreements are going to end up being. Is it going to be a country by country bilateral situation or is there going to be a more holistic approach as we look at capital flows, as we look at foreign investment here?

22:19And I would like to see more clarity on there before I declare victory. With that said, I will call out both sides. I do think it does take a little bit of humility to say, hey, perhaps we We got out in front of our skis. We're going to pause and we're going to reassess. I don't think anybody said that. Nobody said. In fact, he said it was not anything to do with that. It would have all been better. This was a victory lap. I'm trying my best. This was a victory lap. I'm trying my best here. All right. Let's get to the 10-year Treasury yield. Retreating from session highs of over 4.5%, a better-than-expected auction, as Michael had mentioned, and the tariff pause factoring into the move.

22:52CNBC's Rick Santelli, what do you make of all the action today? Wow, Rick. Well, first of all, let's go through four charts real quick, and then I'm going to ask the panel a question. First one, he mentioned that strong 10-year auction. It certainly was. So from 1 o 'clock Eastern to 1.26, we moved from 4.46 to 4.33. We dropped 13 basis points, and that was the catalyst for much more going on. The rest of the charts occurred from about 1.17 to 2.11 Eastern time. The Tuesdays' 10th spread moved from 67 down to 39, dropped 28 basis points. Two-year note yields surged 35 basis points from 368 up to 403.

23:36And these Fed funds, from 118 to 211, they dropped 44 basis points and ended up settling down 27 basis points. And I love this panel. And everybody on the panel asks the one important question to Howard Ludnick. Are we better off after all this? Now I'm going to ask you and I know the answer. Nobody at that table says yes. You know what I say? I ask you a different question. Who on the panel thinks globalism is stronger today than it was a week ago? Anybody? Anybody think globalism is in stronger hands today? No, of course not. Because to me, that's the benefit. That's the benefit. You want to know the benefit?

24:19Globalism coming to an end. It wasn't fair to America in many ways. Trade deficits, listen, I don't know how any of this stuff's going to turn out, and it's super messy. But in the end, there's no resets in a crisis. Everybody's bringing up past crisis. Next couple of days, historically, you're down. You don't get resets in the Tidebot. You don't get resets in COVID. You don't get resets after a tech wreck. You don't get resets after the credit crisis in 08. You got to reset today. This is different. How did we lose in globalism? Can you explain that? How did we lose in globalism? I don't want other countries to tell the U.S.