In short
Podcast Notes: CNBC's "Fast Money" Episode
Episode Title
Mary Barra on GM’s Partnership With Tesla, and Why Businesses Are Leaving San Francisco
Air Date
June 8, 2023
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Summary In this episode of "Fast Money," host Melissa Lee and a panel of expert traders discuss significant market movements, particularly focusing on General Motors (GM) and Tesla's new partnership regarding EV charging stations. The episode also covers the ongoing challenges businesses face in San Francisco, including closures due to crime and the impact of the pandemic. The episode features an exclusive interview with GM CEO Mary Barra and insights from the trading panel on various market dynamics.
Key Highlights
GM and Tesla Partnership
- Announcement: GM partners with Tesla to utilize its North American charging network.
- Impact on Stocks: Both GM and Tesla shares rose following the announcement.
- Customer Benefits: The partnership aims to almost double the access GM customers have to charging stations starting in Spring 2024.
- Strategic Consideration: Barra emphasized that the charging standard chosen is better for consumers and aligns with the broader automotive industry's shift towards a unified charging standard.
Interview with Mary Barra (GM CEO)
- Why Now?: Barra explained that the decision to adopt Tesla’s standard was influenced by the need for improved customer experience and reliability at charging stations.
- Challenges in EV Adoption: Barra acknowledged frustrations consumers face with current charging stations, citing reliability and availability issues.
- Cost Efficiency: The collaboration with Tesla enables GM to save costs in building its own network, allowing for faster deployment and improved capital efficiency.
- UAW Concerns: Discussed the upcoming UAW contract negotiations and expressed optimism about reaching an agreement that benefits both employees and the company.
San Francisco Business Landscape
- Business Exits: Major companies, including Hilton and Nordstrom, are closing locations in San Francisco, citing issues such as crime and office vacancies.
- Optimism from Local Leaders: Alex Bastian from the Hotel Council of San Francisco argues that there is hope for recovery, with the city working on public safety and tax reforms to support businesses.
- Historical Resilience: Bastian noted that San Francisco has weathered past crises and can rebound if stakeholders collaborate on necessary changes.
Market Insights
- Insurance Sector Concerns: The episode touched on the insurance industry’s struggles with climate risks, particularly following Canadian wildfires impacting the East Coast.
- Tech Stocks Rally: Discussion around legacy tech companies like Adobe and Oracle benefiting from the AI trend, with both companies seeing stock increases.
Closing Remarks
- The trading panel shared insights on various stocks, including views on GM and its prospects following the Tesla partnership. They noted the broader implications for the EV market and the valuation dynamics for automakers.
- The panel also highlighted the significant challenges businesses face in San Francisco but maintained that recovery is possible with the right investments and policy reforms.
Key Takeaways
- GM's strategic partnership with Tesla signifies a pivotal move towards standardizing EV charging infrastructure, expected to benefit consumers and boost GM's market position.
- Challenges persist in urban business environments like San Francisco, but optimistic local leadership aims to drive necessary reform and recovery.
- Broader market trends show legacy tech companies adapting to new demands and leveraging AI technologies, impacting their stock valuations positively.
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Discussion Points
- Impact of Partnerships in EV Market: How strategic collaborations can influence market dynamics and consumer access.
- Urban Recovery Strategies: The potential for cities like San Francisco to recover from economic downturns and how businesses can play a role.
- Insurance Industry Adaptation: The need for insurers to reassess risks and pricing structures in light of increasing climate-related events.
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Final Thought The episode encapsulates the intersection of innovation in the automotive sector and the varying landscapes of urban business resilience, providing listeners with actionable insights into market trends and investment opportunities.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:01Right now on Fast, Tesla's new charging partner, the EV giant inking a deal with GM to add the automaker to its network of charging stations. Both stocks higher after hours. The details of this tie-up and a live exclusive with GM CEO Mary Barra coming up. Plus, West Coast walk away. A major hotel operator decided to stop paying back loans on two massive hotels in San Francisco. With retailers closing due to crime and office buildings still reeling from the pandemic, is there a path to bring the Bay City back from the brink? And later, the air in the Northeast may be starting to clear, but the insurance industry is hardly breathing a sigh of relief.
0:35A look at the summer fears beyond these Canadian wildfires. All that and a chart of the day from the scrap heap to firing in all cylinders. Is this move too good to be true? I'm Melissa Lee. This is Fast Money. We're live at the NASDAQ MarketSite on the desk tonight. Tim Seymour, Karen Feiderman, Dan Nathan, and Guy Adami. And we start off with that major EV charging partnership between General Motors and Tesla. GM announcing about a half hour ago a special deal to use Tesla's North American charging network and technologies. Tesla and GM shares both getting a boost on the news here. Philip Bowe joins us now with the CNBC exclusive interview.
1:08with GM CEO Mary Barra. Phil. Thank you, Melissa. Let's bring in Mary joining us from Detroit. Mary, I just heard the Twitter Spaces conversation you had with CEO of Tesla, Elon Musk. Why now? Why did you make this decision that it's the smart time to say we're going to go with the Tesla charging standard? Well, Phil, appreciate the opportunity to talk to you today. And it is, you know, really good news from a customer perspective. But when we looked at the situation and looked at, you know, really the North American charging standard, I think from a design and a performance perspective, is better for the customer.
1:45And also when you think about the fact that, you know, Ford, General Motors and Tesla are all now on this charger, every American automaker, I think this goes a long way to getting the right standard for the United States. And I hope others will follow. But I think this is really important because from a General Motors perspective, this almost doubles the amount of chargers that the GM customers will have access to starting, you know, in spring of 24. Mary, did Ford's decision a couple of weeks ago to go with the Tesla standard influence your decision? And by extension, how long do you think it is before ultimately the auto industry and everybody in the EV world says, let's just go with the NACS standard?
2:31Well, I think, again, when you look at the fact that, you know, three pretty large companies are saying that they're committed to that standard, I think that goes a long way for for for others to follow. And I hope that they do. And I hope this does become the North America standard. You know, clearly it's going to have a lot of momentum when you think about, you know, what we've announced and the fact that, you know, we're on plan to have a million EVs for sale in 25. And this will have our first vehicle ready in 25 and then quickly switch over the entire fleet. Importantly, you know, it starts for the consumer, you know, early next year.
3:10So I think when we looked at everything and, you know, good ideas can come from anywhere, Phil. So when we focus on what's best for the customer, what's going to be best for the industry, we thought this was the right move. Mary, you're an engineer, and I know that you've seen a lot of public charging stations in your time. You know what the reports are out there. They're a mess. About 20 percent of the time, people don't even use them because they can't make them work or their credit card doesn't work. What's the problem? How did this become a stumbling point, if you will, for EV adoption in this country?
3:45Well, you know, Phil, I agree with you. When I talk to consumers and I talk to a lot of them and when I see what we have, I mean, there is there is a frustration of, you know, when I get to a charging station, is it going to work and is it going to be available? And then is it going to work? And I think this moves a long way to getting us there. You know, when you look at the reliability of this charger, I think that's another point. But, you know, one of the reasons we have the very strong partnership with Pilot Flying J is the fact that it's going to be the chargers that we'll install there and we'll be talking to them as a key partner on, you know, the standard we think that would be good for them and for General Motors, that there's going to be someone there who immediately knows, is it working?
4:27And I think there's a lot more that can be done to be monitoring. And we're going to be working with all the all the companies that are already in our partnership and comprise the chargers, the 13 ,000 fast chargers that are available for our consumers to make sure that they're improving their reliability and the performance overall, because you're absolutely right. It's so important. And so one other point I want to mention is, you know, we're General Motors is aggregating. So if you have a Chevy Bolt, we're going to have the My Chevy app that will allow all these chargers to be available. You can pick your best route.
4:58You know, we're going to work to make sure that, you know, we can make it easy to pay, easy to reserve. So there's a lot of work to be done. But I agree with you. It has to be done quickly to enable EV adoption. Mary, it's Melissa Lee at the Nasdaq Market Site. How do you share the cost or revenue of the charging network with Elon Musk, with Tesla? And does this mean that you might be partnering in the future? Because Elon Musk has tweeted just recently on the heels of the Ford announcement that he would be willing in the future to license other Tesla technology like full self-driving and autopilot?
5:32Well, I think from a full self-driving perspective, General Motors has crews, and we're already operating level four autonomy in three cities with two more being added. But of course, we're going to always look for ways to be more capital efficient. And this arrangement alone, this collaboration that we're doing nearly doubles the amount of chargers that our GM customers will have access to. And frankly, we think we can save up to$400 million in the original three-quarter of a billion dollars that we allocated to this because we've been able to do it faster and more effectively. And we're really looking for ways that we can be more capital efficient as we go forward.
6:14So if there's other opportunities to partner, we're going to be very open to them. In addition to this collaboration with Tesla, we also have a very important collaboration with Honda as well. So, you know, we're demonstrating that we're going to continue to do that because I think being capital efficient in this environment that will allow us to get the best EVs out to the market is is crucial in this transformation.
6:43Mary, it's Phil. I have one other question for you. We are just a few months away from the UAW contract expiring, and you've heard the comments from Sean Fain, the president of the UAW, basically saying, hey, look, you and the rest of the big three have had big profits over the last several years and that it's time for you guys to, quote unquote, pay up when it comes to the rank and file members who are building GM vehicles. Are you confident you can avoid a strike in the fall, given the rhetoric that's already out there from the UAW? Well, you know, Phil, I think it's important that we actually get to the table and we start to problem solve.
7:24Of course, we have different differences. But, you know, as you talk about record profits, one of the things I'm very proud of is we've shared that with our employees from a profit sharing perspective. So they've done quite well in participating in the success that they're important and vitally important to. When I think about, you know, the men and women of General Motors and the fact that just a few weeks after we shut down, when no one knew what was happening in the world with COVID, they came back, they followed the safety protocols and really, you know, just did a phenomenal job. So I couldn't be more proud of the men and women of General Motors that work in our, whether it's our factories, our warehouses, across the company.
8:06And, you know, we want to make sure that we problem solve. Again, we want to find a solution that's good for our employees, good for the company, because we need to continue to reinvest. And, you know, right now we've made some important announcements about reinvesting in these plants, because I think job security is very important. to do that. The company has to be successful so we can continue to develop new products that customers want to buy. So I look forward to being able to have conversations and work through the issues that we have to get to a successful agreement.
8:40Mary, I've got a question for you regarding Twitter. When you tweeted about the spaces that you're going to do with Elon today, that was the first time that you were back on Twitter since October 27th, I believe the date was when Elon Musk took over. At that time, GM also discontinued advertising on the platform. Are you back on Twitter? Is GM going to continue its advertising? Well, we've been on Twitter, especially for our customers, as they have questions, as they have comments, as they have issues. So we've been on Twitter all along. You know, we're in the process right now of reimagining marketing.
9:13You know, I think it's known that we are in the market to bring in a new head of marketing. And so I think that's a a good question and will be one of my first questions when this new person joins the GM team. So I definitely think it's possible. Mary, thank you for joining us today. GM CEO Mary Barra joining us from Detroit. On a day, Melissa, when this is significant news, you now have two of the largest automakers in this country, especially when it comes to EVs, joining in with the largest EV company, Tesla, and saying that's the charging standard that we're going to go with in the future.
9:51Melissa, back to you. Phil, thank you. Phil LeBeau. And our thanks, of course, to Mary Barra as well, the CEO of GM. A real positive here. We're seeing the stock higher in the after-hours session. As it should be. I mean, I think that I listened to the spaces. I thought it was very elegant, actually. I thought it's a really, it makes sense for both sides. I think it's actually more generous of Tesla because they, I don't think they necessarily need that. They already are the standard. I think it's more important for GM. And so I don't know. Good for them. They're just trying to knock down all the obstacles to getting an EV.
10:28Yeah, I think it's also opportunistic by Tesla. I mean, they're going to get access to billion dollars of federal funding that was going to go towards building out EV stations. I mean, they're not doing this for free and their EV charging stations now across Europe are probably going to also get a similar bid to that capacity. And I think it's great for Tesla. The interesting dynamic here is, as you think about conversions of technologies and you think about common standards, GM and Ford can only get pulled up in the valuation dynamic. In other words, what their businesses are worth and or Tesla can get pulled down.
11:04And I realize you can't just immediately make that transference onto multiples. But there's no question that at some point, they're all moving together. And this is why we get to this place where Tesla is an auto company. And so what should you be paying for this company? Clearly a massive lead. And then there's the other side of this that just gets into EV. And what kind of capacity do these guys have to really build out all this stuff, lithium, et cetera, supplies? It's a fascinating time. It's interesting. I mean, Tesla's up 60 percent from its post earnings low. And again, you know, I thought that earnings call was not particularly great.
11:37I thought the margin detail was not particularly great. I think some of the competitive situations, let's say outside North America, weren't particularly great. But the fact that that stock has gained hundreds of billions of dollars in market cap in just a month and a half, I mean, I want to almost broaden that out a little bit and just say we're seeing a lot of really crazy stuff. The stock sold off for fundamental reasons, to Tim's point, because people were looking at some of the valuations in and around their competition. And now to have this sort of run, and I look at the way this stock traded today, and just so you know.
12:07I mean, I took a lot of my position off post earnings. OK, and I started coming back into it. This is on the short side in Tesla. And today I got back into the office and I started doing it again today. And it just was right in my face. And it really felt like somebody knew that this was coming. I just want to be really, really clear about this, especially on a day like yesterday when we saw all those major Nasdaq names sell off three percent. And this thing was up two and a half percent and kept on going. There's like some fishy sort of stuff going on in this name right now because it's not trading on fundamentals.
12:35Again, it is a three quarter of a trillion market cap company again. But some of the technicals, I'd just say on the stock, I mean, it got through the 200 day. If you look at this move, especially this after hours move, it's kind of punctuated a move through that downtrend from November of 21 that it's been fighting up against multiple times. And this kind of takes it through it. So the technicals continue to be very strong. Guy, is this better for Tesla stock or for GM stock? I think it's better for GM stock, but I can understand why people would flock to Tesla. Listen, I thought, you know, we've been talking about it.
13:08First, I want to say I've been wrong, but thought$2.25 to$2.30 would be resistance. We're clearly through that now. And Tim's point about breaking through that resistance is spot on. But I think GM, I mean, the tremendous savings I would imagine would be incurred by GM. Mary Barrett just spoke to it. And now you can make a case that the$43 level that we traded to in February should be within sort of earshot here. And, you know, it's not that far away. Evaluation is compelling, which it clearly has been for a number of years for GM and Ford. And you start to get some momentum and some money put in these stocks.
13:41I think$43 is not that unrealistic given the market we're seeing right now. Yeah, this looks like the after-hour session highs here. I mean, Dan had mentioned raw materials. So let's say adoption is much easier now because they're part of this great charging network. They've signed, GM has signed all sorts of agreements with miners. Yeah, they're set. lithium and cobalt, et cetera. Right. Are they ready to go? Do we just clear the last hurdle for GM? Well, they're at 100 percent capacity to do two million units on EV in terms of nickel and lithium through 25. You know, I don't even are they going to do that many units?
14:14What's that? Through or in 25? From now through 25. They've been delaying. I mean, this this is this is great for them. And I think it's better for GM than it is for Tesla, but they're talking about 2025, right? So that's... No, but you can use an adapter, like, starting pretty soon. And there's some, like, literally plug-in adapters. You can start using this. You know, one of the things that's really interesting is that ChargePoint, which is the biggest actual... Loser. A huge loser. Well, listen, can I tell you something? When I had the Ford Mach-E, and I loved that car, ChargePoint... You could get nowhere.
14:47No, it was a disaster. And when Phil just said that about getting to those stations, needing that sort of thing, it was really bad. I wonder how Tesla customers are going to feel, especially in very dense populated areas where they rely on these superchargers. It was part of the selling point. It was definitely part of this ecosystem that would draw you to that when they start seeing Ford Priuses pull up or Ford. It's not going to cause them to not buy a Tesla in the future because if they've switched to another automaker, they'll face the same line. Well, my point is, it seemed like the only game in town for a long time.
15:19And now there's going to be a lot of other options to do that. And a lot of people in America have affiliations with Ford and GM and that sort of thing. So I guess my point is, is a lot of these charging stations are super packed as it is. Right. And so unless they keep up with the building of these stations, it's going to be a hard thing that, listen, maybe ChargePoint goes under and maybe Tesla takes them all over and that's going to be a huge business for them. I just don't know the economics of the business right now. Well, we don't know the exact economics, but that's why I'm curious from your question about what will what is the deal?
15:47Right. So they're not getting a free ride completely, but I think they could end up, I mean, this could be good for Tesla if GMs and Ford, you know, take a lot of the cost burden and create more capacity for everyone, including Tesla. Yeah. Charge point, by the way, is down 38 percent over the past 12 months and is down more than 2 percent in the after our session. Coming up, AI on the sly. We're checking in on some not so obvious ways to play the hottest new trend, how two old tech names are getting in on the action next. Plus some fast movers catching our traders eyes. Casinos folding while analysts get bullish on Wayfair.
16:19How should you be trading these names when Fast Money returns?
16:28Welcome back to Fast Money. It isn't just mega caps like NVIDIA, Alphabet, and Microsoft getting in on the AI rally. Legacy tech names like Oracle and Adobe each surging more than 30 percent this year. Adobe gaining nearly 5 percent today after announcing plants offer its generative AI tool Firefly to large business customers, and Oracle jumping 2 percent today's session. Hovering near all-time highs, the software company building AI into its core offerings with analysts expecting continued integration into its application suites. Dan, you're talking about this on the call today. Yeah, interesting because both these companies report next week and I think they're going to be in focus in a market right now where we were, you know, focused on the trillion dollar sorts of names and how they're kind of leveraging at least some of the themes in this little bit of a bubble right here.
17:09And Adobe is interesting to me. On May 22nd, the company put out a press release talking about some of their offerings in generative AI and how they're going to be working through a lot of their offerings. And the stock just went parabolic. I mean, just look at the chart there. You can see what happened here. And on a day like today, I mean, listen, this is all great news. And I mean, a company like Adobe should, and they already, they've been working on machine. That's kind of my point. Like, this stuff is all here. So the press release is the thing that actually causes investors to say, oh, this stock's much cheaper than some of its peers, that sort of thing.
17:37And that's what they're rushing into. So, again, just understand that things that go up in a straight line often tend to discount a lot of future sort of fundamental sort of news. And so, you know, I'm not buying here. It does look cheap-ish, and they're doing the right things across their platform. Guy Oracle? I think you can stay with it. I mean, I understand why you'd be inclined to pull the ripcord here. It's been a pretty dramatic move. And we just traded to the levels, the prior all-time high from December of 21. But basically trading just a wee bit higher than a market multiple. You probably have 13 % earnings growth.
18:09I think about 12 % or 13 % of the overall revenues now are from cloud. And you saw cloud growth last quarter grow 45 % year over year. So there's a lot to like here, especially if you're looking for, in my opinion, a reasonable valuation stock that's in a space that everybody seems to love. And the valuation is, you know, we talk about it all the time. You know, back to Adobe, which has been such a big winner over the years until it wasn't. You know, if you look at some of the upgrades we've seen, and they're not really playing around with the AI numbers. They're playing around with the MAU growth, which actually just got up to 20 percent or so.
18:42Their digital media, which is 73 percent of sales, is actually looking pretty strong here. It's at 25 times 2024 if I'm looking at a couple of reports that I'm looking at here. So it's not crazy expensive. Oracle never is. And it's just interesting you look at the overall market as much as we talk about six stocks. Software companies have been very much a part of whatever we're calling this move. And obviously, Adobe is ahead of the line. Where are you on software? You had been short at one point. Yeah, I covered some of it. I'm still short a little bit. I mean, I think it was a little bit of a Fed play, right, interest rates and just valuations being high.
19:18But I'm still short a little bit of it, though. Just one thing on AI, you know, I am long in video, which is the pick and shovel. But also Google is a really, really inexpensive way to be playing the same thing. Yeah, really quickly, when you just said like these cloud names, I mean, that was the last bubble that we had. It was metaverse. I mean, think about how those names corrected because they were supposed to benefit from this new sort of consumption that we're having work from home, school from home. That's because metaverse collapsed, right? I mean, that's a big part. Really, that was an enterprise thing.
19:46It was also a consumer facing thing. I mean, think about the slack. Think about the zoom. I mean, there's a lot of things. So I'm just saying, like, just remember, people like I mean, history is rhyming here. OK, but if you think of the zoom valuation. Yeah, I just didn't mean it as a one off. I think as a monolith, I know you like to use that term. I mean, SaaS was one of the biggest bubbles that we've seen in tech in the last five years. And on average, most of those names, not the totality of the market cap because it's concentrated among a handful of names, but most of those names have been more than cut in half, and they're probably down 60%, 70 % across the board from their 2021 highs.
20:18There is a lot more fast money to come. Here's what's coming up next. You got to know when to hold them and not when to buy them. That's the call one analyst is making on a pair of casino stocks. Why, he's starting to hedge his bets. Next. Plus, putting the good in home goods. Wayfair rallying on some positive calls out of Wall Street. So recline and put your feet on the ottoman. The furniture trade is next. You're watching Fast Money, live from the NASDAQ market site in Times Square. We're back right after this.
21:02Welcome back to Fast Money, a pair of casino stocks claiming your call of the day. Jeffries downgrading both Las Vegas Sands and Wynn to a hold from a buy, saying the bull and bear cases are more balanced now and that the Macau recovery is well understood by the market. Analysts noting that upside remains for the companies but recommended owning without adding. Is that where you think we are, Tim? It's similar to what I've been doing. I've been long Vegas Sands for a year. I was early and then it's actually been good to be patient, especially with the recovery in Macau. I've been selling upside calls around 65.
21:32When I hear owning without adding, that sounds like someone that's selling calls. So it's almost like this is my report. And I kind of buy it. They identify the things that I think are still the reasons to hold it, which is we're still early in Macau. Their Singapore business is crushing it. And I think the valuation still is very cheap relative to its history. Yeah. Do you have to be a believer in the Chinese recovery guy, which has shown signs of sputtering? certainly not reflected in China's stock market, in order to be a believer in SANS, Wynn, etc. I think to a certain extent, absolutely.
22:03They're also talking about building another airport in Las Vegas due to the amount of traffic. So there's a Vegas story here as well that I don't think people fully, at least not comprehend, but take into consideration, I should say. I understand why people would say it's strictly a Macau story. It's not. I'll say this about Wynn quickly. They still have a$114 price target, so it's still reasonable upside. But stocks in a basically nine year downtrend. You go back to, I think, February of 2014, it was 240 something. And we're still in this downtrend, despite the fact that we've had a significant move higher.
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22:35There's going to be a level where the same analyst says now it's time to get in again. And I think we're pretty close. So I wouldn't run too far from when here, Melms. Was this in anybody's acronyms this year? Because it had been in your Don guy. It was in mine last year. It was in live. It was in live. Or live, actually. I think we want it to live next to you. Whatever you want your acronym to be. Meantime, Wayfair talking the tape today, soaring more than 7 % after a trio of Wall Street firms got bullish on this stock. Citi, Bank of America, DA Davidson, all issuing positive notes on the stock, citing strengthening demand and its extensive use of AI in the e-commerce space.
23:13In its business update yesterday, Wayfair announced improving sales trends and a shakeup to its CCO position. AI. We were just talking about this yesterday with the use of Scully and Truist in terms of... If everybody's got it, it's a zero-sum game. Exactly. And how exactly does that help me buy more rugs or footstools or whatever they're selling on Wayfair? This is what this stuff exists for. This is why these companies have had these digital transformations. It's called machine learning. It's helping you make suggestions. I mean, if they don't have this sort of stuff, they're going to go the way of the dodo.
23:50I mean, like, so to me, the fact that there's any, like, imputed, like, higher valuation based on this company, this company loses a ton of money, too. Okay? Like, that's the other thing. All right? Like, they're going to lose on a gap based on, like, a billion dollars in net income this year. So, like, and their revenues are declining. So, like, to me, don't buy this stuff for AI. Like, please. Please. As we were talking about last night. Right. On the ride home. On the ride home. On the ride home. We discussed a lot of things. You guys are, I mean, if this is what you're chatting about on the ride home, I'll tell you what.
24:22Have you ever done it? I thought you were snappy, happening chicks. It's like the Web Extra, but in an Uber. It's like, geez, remember the Web Extra? How unbearable they were? Some of the time. But this way we were discussing. So Wayfair, one thing, you know, my kids, college, get them Wayfair stuff. I found the number of offerings overwhelming. overwhelming maybe if they can really zone in like yeah this is what you need this color this size don't even show them all the rest maybe that's true i guess produce a higher hit rate why is this called ai and maybe that's just my it was already in a commerce you see and my you know lack of familiarity with with ai specifically but how is it different from what it had three months ago when i was just searching for footstools well you have this guy buying an extra dutch oven at Williams-Sonoma because of this.
25:12Guy, what's going on? Maybe a pineapple lamb. As I'd like to say, if you have one Dutch oven, you don't need any more, Tim, as you probably are well aware. I'll say this. If we could quickly pull up a Wayfair. Well, we'll see about that. Pull up that Wayfair chart real quick, because I think that tells the story. I mean, I think we traded up to 67 or so in February. I mean, that seems to be where we're going. Dan's right. I mean, I mean, this was a$350 stock a couple of years ago. It's obviously cascaded lower, but it doesn't mean it can't bounce. We've seen more ridiculous moves than this. So I think you stay with it on the long side until it gets to those$67 levels.
25:51If the CEO of Wayfair is listening, you have an open invitation to come on the show. Yes. We got a lot of questions coming up. California leaving. Major companies fleeing San Francisco as the pandemic recovery hits some snags. But our next guest isn't giving up hope just yet. He'll lay out his case next. And another huge move for Carvana. Get this, the stock is now basically flat over the past year, but it's what's happening under the hood that has one of our traders kicking the tires. That trade when Fast Money returns.
26:21Welcome back to Fast Money. Stocks climbing today as the market builds on its recent run higher. The Dow jumping 168 points, its third positive session in a row. The S &P up more than a half a percent and the Nasdaq leading the gains up more than one percent. Some earnings alerts on DocuSign and Vail Resorts. DocuSign jumping after being on the top and the bottom line. Bale Resorts lower after missing an EPS and revenues. Meantime, businesses in San Francisco are abandoning the city. The latest park hotel and resorts, which stopped making payments on a$725 million loan linked to two prominent hotels in the area.
26:53But our next guest is hanging on. He wrote an op-ed in the San Francisco Chronicle earlier this week titled, Why Couldn't Quit San Francisco and You Shouldn't Either. Let's bring in Alex Bastian, the president and CEO of the Hotel Council of San Francisco. Alex, great to have you with us. Thank you so much for having me today. I understand your position, especially considering where you work, Alex. But do you feel like you're just sort of shouting from the mountaintops? Because we're seeing businesses cite crime, unsafe working conditions for their staff. And then, you know, there's also the problem with office properties being vacant, which adds to this sort of problem.
27:32Thank you so much for bringing that to your viewers' attention. You know, now more than ever, I do believe that San Francisco is a great investment still. And let me tell you why. For the first time in a long time, we are seeing consensus in our city around issues involving public safety and tax reform. And that is something that the city is addressing head on at this time. We saw a massive investment in public safety with the mayor's budget request. And we are seeing discussions around really restructuring taxes so that businesses can thrive here, so that bureaucratic red tape can be cut. And that's something as a native San Franciscan that I have not seen before.
28:14So what you see before you around crime, those images that many people see on TV are part of the story. It's the other part of the story, which gives me some optimism. Make the case, though, why businesses should take the gamble now and not wait to see these things, not wait to see that consensus that is building in the city to address all of these problems, not wait to see that actually bear fruit. Well, I'll say a couple of things. The first thing is, historically, San Francisco has always been a sure bet. I've lived through an earthquake. I've lived through two tech bubbles here. And people always counted us out every time.
28:53We always come back better and we always come back stronger if we work together and if we employ common sense reforms. That's what we're seeing right now. As far as the investments, we need to make short-term, medium-term, and long-term investments. On the short term, public safety and clean streets are so important. And we're seeing the city really kind of meeting that with the new budget. On the medium term, tax reform is going to be so important. Cutting bureaucratic red tape so that it's easier for businesses to really do things here, open businesses. That is going to be so important. And we're discussing that currently.
29:32And it's so important for business to have a seat at the table in those conversations. And in the long term, what we're really going to need is infrastructure investments. For example, we have the best airport in the world, in my opinion, definitely the best in the country. And what we need to do is find ways to invest in our airport to really encourage more airlift to our great city. You know, this city is a piece of gold and it's been in the mud the last couple of years, partially due to the pandemic, partially our own doing and partially the national mudslinging that we're seeing. But if we clean that piece of gold, if we keep it safe, if we hold it up in the light, it's going to shine bright on the world stage again.
30:11And that's what we're doing as we speak. Park Hotels, they're walking away. You're part of the Hotel Council. I mean, what is the case that you make to your other member hotels, why they should stick in the city? I mean, it seems like businesses are growing weary of San Francisco. I mean, I don't know if there are many conventions that are going to be held in San Francisco anytime soon. Well, actually, that is incorrect. We do have conventions, not quite at the level we did in 2019. But the momentum is headed in the positive direction. I think it's important to note that San Francisco historically was a top three destination for over a decade before the pandemic, with occupancy rates fluctuating around 80 percent.
30:57During the height of the pandemic, occupancy rates dropped to 8%. And when I came up here to visit at the beginning of last year, occupancy rates were around 25 to 27%. You know, I had no interest in coming back to the city. I loved my life in L.A. I felt at home there. That was home for me. However, what I saw was heartbreaking. And I felt obligated to take on this job because I believe San Francisco is a good investment. That's why I came back. And since then, what we've seen is occupancy rates around 60 percent. Now, that's still a far cry away from 80 percent. That's still a far cry away from where we were in 2019.
31:39But we're headed in the right direction. Alex, thank you so much for sharing San Francisco's story with us tonight. We appreciate it. Alex Bastian of the Hotel Council of San Francisco. So we do hear a lot of the headlines of businesses pulling out because the crime is just too difficult to deal with on a daily basis in terms of people going in and just grabbing merchandise and not being able to do anything about it. Yeah, so it's interesting. You know, we talk in terms of trading and investing and stuff like that. If San Francisco was a stock, I think we'd buy it as a value stock because it's got a long history of being one of the most rich, diverse places in our country.
32:18It literally is the home to Silicon Valley. and you think of the innovation that's been created there over the last 50 or 60 years. And when you think about network effects, a lot of Silicon Valley folks like to think about that as they're investing in companies and how these companies can grow. San Francisco and Silicon Valley is that, too. You know what I mean? So right now it feels really bad, but people felt that way about New York City, and New York City's never been better. You know, people felt that way about some of these other cities that, you know, were beneficiaries from some of this exodus of some of these big places.
32:46But I think a lot of those people are kind of leaving. They're leaving Austin. They're leaving Miami. These are not as good of like towns with network effects. So to me, I think San Francisco, a lot of tech folks that I know, a lot of investors have not left. And they're kind of doubling down the way they see it. Yeah. You know, Mike Coe is in the wings. He's been listening to this. He, you know, is one of these guys who's moved away from big cities, moved back. So, Mike, what are your thoughts on this and San Francisco as a place to be? I think it's going to take a little bit of time to recover, honestly.
33:15Let's let's take a look. First of all, the retail situation is quite grim. We've got most of the big retailers down in that Market Street area that are closing. We can see where the prices of office spaces are trading. $350, California just went for about$220 a square foot. $550, California, which is a 350 ,000 square foot office building that Wells Fargo bought in 2005, just went for about$120 a square foot. OK, those are 70 % to 80 % declines in value. So you want to see business return, and you need to have retail return. I don't know why hotels are going to come back if you don't have other reasons to be in the city.
33:53If there's no shopping and there's no business, that's pretty tough. Maybe this hotel thing is good for the remaining hotels, though. Occupancy will go up from, I don't know, the denominator if three close down. That's the kind of thing that creates a bottom. Right. All right. Coming up. Talk about fast money. Carvana on an absolute crazy run. Can this rally continue or is it running out of gas? We'll hit the options pits for a look at how to play it next.
34:22Welcome back to Fast Money. Carvana shares flooring the gas today and improves second quarter guidance. The used car seller saying it expects Q2 EBITDA of over$50 million, and that profit per vehicle will be a record$6 ,000, more than 60 % higher than a year ago. The stock's soaring 56 % today. It's best day on record. It's now back at levels lasting in September. The debt markets, how are they looking these days? So it was interesting. I always think the debt's smarter. Let's take a look at the debt. So during the middle of the day, I said the debt chart over. We have the five and five eighths bonds that mature, I think, in October 2025.
34:59They were 79 at the time, which had been a very nice run off the, I don't know, high 40s, maybe. By the end of the day, that chart was no longer good. They were 84 and a half. And I think we have that now, which is actually approaching, I mean, they're rated junk. You know, the balance sheet's a mess. That$50 million of adjusted EBITDA, I know Dan loves adjusted EBITDA. What's adjusted? It's adjusted. They take out all the things that they lose money on and they leave the things that they make money on. In general, it's sort of that. But I don't know what their specific is. That$6 ,000 profit per car, that's a gross profit.
35:33It doesn't take into account the expenses where they had actually been losing money on each car. So So, I mean, good for them if they can figure the way out of it. If I were they and it traded 175 million shares today and closed at 24 and change, I would be out there trying to sell stock as quickly as possible. I'm sure they're not the only ones who thought of that. I mean, I wouldn't be the only one. Of course, they're going to think of that if they can. But at a 50 plus percent short interest, I mean, it's it's terrifying. It sounds like you think the debt markets are getting this wrong. I feel like if they can issue equity, that near-in bond, maybe they can pay it off.
36:11If they can, then it goes to par. That still leaves billions of other debt outstanding. But if you're profitable, you seemingly can possibly repackage debt. You're going to get people at the table. The problem is back to, I think we all are frustrated to see adjusted EBITDA. And they're talking about also their ability to non-GAAP total gross profit or GP unit would be above$6 ,000. Like, what does that mean? It doesn't mean anything. Again, non-GAAP, I don't want to hear it. Journal had a great article early this week, late last week, talking about we've never had a wider chasm between U.S. GAAP and adjusted earnings.
36:47And during times like this, you just think this company should be held to that standard. Bullish option traders are calling shotgun in this name. Mike Coe's got the action. Hey, Mike. Yeah, I think a lot of this is probably just betting on a big short squeeze here. This thing traded six times its average daily options volume. It was the fifth busiest single stock option today. The largest trade I saw in terms of premium was a purchase of the 22 strike calls. Somebody paid$310 for$3 ,000 of those around midday today. Of course, the stock rose almost another 8 % thereafter. So this trade is actually already profitable.
37:22They spent a little over$900 ,000 in premium, probably up about$350 ,000. making a bet that the squeeze could continue through the end of next week. Mike, thanks. Mike Coe for more Options Action. Tune into the full show. That's tomorrow, 530 p.m. Eastern Time. Coming up, the Canadian wildfires took a toll on the East Coast over the last few days. But what does this extreme weather mean for insurers as they assess risk? We've got a live report on that ahead.
37:54Welcome back to Fast Money as the East Coast recovers. from an amber haze from the Canadian wildfires. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announcing El Nino is here. The climate pattern is expected to bring warmer temperatures and more extreme weather patterns. So what does this mean for insurers as a assessorist? Let's get to our Contessa Brewer for the details. Contessa. Hi, Melissa. It means that you're going to see a higher risk of wildfires in places that we don't really think of as wildfire hotspots like Canada and the northern United States. El Nino just exacerbates weather conditions And already, look at the prediction from the National Interagency Fire Center.
38:30More than normal potential for wildfire in the Pacific Northwest, around the Great Lakes, upstate New York, northern New England. At least for June and July, a lower potential for fire in California. Why? Well, historic rainfall in the spring led to these lush, wet mountains and lower risk. But later this summer, when all of that dries out in hotter weather, it could become tender for wildfires there. And we saw State Farm and Allstate announce no new policies in California. Eight of the ten costliest wildfires across the globe happened in California. Chubb and AIG already gave up on the regulated insurance market there.
39:09And if state regulators don't approve premiums, commensurate with the future risk and with the soaring cost of repair and replacement because of inflation, industry experts predict that we will see other insurers flee as well. And not just in California, but we're looking at Washington State, Louisiana, Texas, New York, New Jersey, all areas where you're seeing elevated risk, lost costs and regulatory hurdles combining, Melissa, to make it difficult for insurers to make the numbers work. Contessa, thank you. Great story. Contessa Brewer. Or in the past, you know, any of these sort of things that would lead to a premium increase was good for the insurers because usually they stick.
39:50They don't pull them back. Right. What does that do to the value of expensive properties? Knowing that you can't insure it. Right. You've got to think twice. Right. In terms of the market. But, you know, in addition to insurance costs, Guy, this is loss of business, right? It's just if we're going to see more of these sorts of disruptions caused by whatever it is, weird weather patterns or whatnot, People are saying home. They're not going out. They're not doing all the stuff that businesses want you to do. Right. But in terms of the stocks, is it already in the valuation? I mean, Chubb was making an all-time high in January.
40:23I think it was$243 stock. So I think we just had the graphic up. It's probably down 15%, 16 % since. But look at the valuation of the stock now. And one thing you learn about these companies, they figured out how to navigate this type of environment. And they will pass on those costs. So regardless of whether or not it's the right thing to do, that's what historically happened. So I think Chubb here at 195 or so at the valuation that it's trading at, given the sell off we've seen already, is really interesting stock to get in on the back of all the news we're hearing now. All right. Up next, final trades.
40:55Welcome back to Fast Money. Today is the 40th anniversary of Eddie Murphy and Dan Aykroyd's classic Wall Street movie, Trading Places. Remember those jam-packed trading pits? So good. So much has changed. That was supposed to be the NYMEX, I think, or the NYMEX. What was that? Or the COMEX. It was oranges. They were trading. Oh, that's right. That's right. Can't do it. Boo, crop reports. Guy, a lot has changed since then, but that movie's still a classic. I worked down there. So those guys you see and some gals, that was filmed on a Saturday. And all those extras you see that appear to be actors, they were actual traders down there.
41:30And it was nuts. But it's a fascinating time. You'll never see stuff like that again. But as you know, Mel, both Jamie Lee Curtis and Eddie Murphy are huge. Huge fans. Fast Money fans. I know they're watching now. Guy, if we looked hard enough, could we find you in one of the scenes? Oh, my. First of all, it was 1983. Okay, wise guy. I was still in college. I mean, I'm old, but I'm not that old. All right. All right, fine. Time for the final trade. You could have been an intern or something. Let's go around the horn, Guy. I was actually a lifeguard back then. Marriott, look at that chart. That sucker's off to the races.
42:11Tim Seymour. Yeah, I'm a karate man. I bruise on the inside. And GM has been a bruiser on the inside, except for I think the valuation gives us reason. Oh, this is a catalyst. I think at least on a range trade, guy talked about those ranges earlier. Karen? Yes, I'm also going with GM. A double upgrade, a double upgrade. Love it. Yes. I like the plan with Tesla. I think it's better for GM than Tesla, but good for both of them. I like it here. Yeah. Dan? Yeah, UUP, I think in front of the Fed next week, this thing might have topped out here. and play for a move back towards support. Yeah. I think I've watched Trading Places.
42:43I've only seen it once. I'll watch it again. Thanks for watching Fast Money. Go watch the movie. Mad Money with Jim Cramer starts right now.
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Shares of GM jumping after announcing a partnership with Tesla on EV charging stations. We’re joined by the CEO of GM to talk the news. Plus Hilton joining Nordstrom and Whole Foods in closing up shop in San Francisco. But should they be giving up on the Bay City?
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