Memory makes a comeback... And can gold reclaim $5k an ounce? 8/17/26

16:31Melissa Lee:Yeah. And to Tim's point, you know, the Wall Street Journal had a great article yesterday, I think, about all the off balance sheet debt that's used to finance. It's getting to about two trillion dollars. And when you think about the yields, I think the average yield on that is about five and a half percent. So you are being very competitive with the 10 year yield, which is supposed to be the risk free rate. Microsoft has a higher credit rating than the U.S. does. So think about that. So you can get maybe five, five and a quarter or something like that with some of the Microsoft debt. It's going to be higher for the meta and Amazon's going higher and the neoclouds, that sort of thing.

17:05Melissa Lee:Some of those are above Oracle. Obviously, they're getting close to 9 percent. So you could see a lot of competition with U.S. treasuries, which wouldn't be a great thing on the yield front.

17:14Tim Seymour:Coming up, a big dollar move brewing. Is there more downside ahead for the greenback? Well, your next guest says the move could send gold prices soaring back above 5K. Plus, a Nike nosedive inside the stock slumped at 12-year lows. And what the sportswear giant needs to do to find its footing once again. Don't go anywhere. Fast Money is back in two.

17:34This is Fast Money with Melissa Lee right here on CNBC.

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19:08Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. A new batch of data showing China's economy lost momentum in July. Retail sales rising six-tenths of a percent. Missing estimates for 1.5 percent growth. Industrial output also coming in below expectations. For more on what this means for the global economy and the dollar, We're joined on set by Vanda, President Jens Nordvik. He's also the founder of Exante Data. Jens, always good to see you. So it's interesting because China seems to have like a two-speed sort of economy. Domestically, it's terrible. And then exports are fine. And then you have like the AI models, which are scaring everybody with the competitiveness there.

19:44Tim Seymour:So how do you assess where we are with China and what their grand plan here is? I would say exports are more than fine. Like, you just look around the world. Like, we can't really see it in the U.S. because we don't have Chinese cars here, but you travel to different countries around the world. Every single one. It's just moving so fast. Like, compared to what Japan did in the 80s, like, Japan was viewed as, like, taking over the world in cars, right? But the speed of China is moving in these EVs is way, way faster than Japan ever did. So can't underestimate that. And going back to the currency question, right, We have this weird situation where the economy looks weak, domestic demand is soft, real estate is terrible, and the currency just continues to grind stronger and stronger because it's a unique situation.

20:29The trade surplus is enormous. They have an enormous trade surplus, and the currency continues to trade stronger, even if the economy doesn't look that hard. We're used to thinking about, OK, monetary policies support the currency, but China's is different. It's the flip side of what's going on in Japan, but all roads lead to gold on the back of this. And you're starting to see it in a pretty meaningful way over the last two weeks or so. The move in gold, I think, shouldn't alarm people, but it should have people paying attention to what's really going on here. Well, I guess it depends on whether you're long or short, whether you're alarmed.

20:59But I think what's so interesting about gold is that we've had an incredibly flow-driven environment since 24. Chinese flows have been important. The retail flow coming in has been important. And then we had a huge washout from March up until a couple of weeks ago. Just positions got totally cleaned up. And now they're starting to kick in, all of them again. The Chinese flow, spec flow, really, really strong. Option activity starting to really pick up. ETF flow really begun. So it's across the board really now that from this very, very clean position, we're starting to have a real run. And I certainly think gold has potential here.

21:41And it helps if the dollar is weak, right, because gold does trade with the dollar. But gold, as we've seen for the last several years, has its own driver as well, right? So I think gold can trade pretty well, even if the dollar is not really in play. You know, the saying, when China's weak, they act strong and vice versa. Do you have an opinion on that, what it looks like right now? Are we getting the real weakness out of China, or is it even bigger than we think? And I'll just throw in a little just yes or no. Do you think the invasion of Taiwan is that on or off the table in the next year or so?

22:16I think China has a plan. They would prefer to gain control over Taiwan in a peaceful way like they did with Hong Kong. So I don't think they're in a rush. I think they're politically maneuvering in the background and making some progress along this long-term plan. So I think that's the more likely scenario.

22:37Karen Finerman:Let's talk about your namesake. So ultimately, the Japanese currency is is caught in between fiscal policy, which is seemingly out of control, which is great for equities and great for the economy. Some view that they don't even care about inflation that they finally have after three decades. Should we be scared? Because we talk about it all the time. I'm just trying to understand this seems like systemic risk personified. Yeah. I think one thing that has really happened in the last couple of weeks that is very, very unusual is that we've started to see the market price in the Bank of Japan rate hike in September.

23:13And the currency just can't benefit from it. It's literally the biggest two-year move we've seen in decades in Japan. And the currency is not moving. So there is some concern about what's going on in the long end that's holding people back. I speak to fixed income investors all around the world. Like, are they buying JGBs? No. Right. So we need to have some kind of reset of policy to get investors any kind of confidence that this is the asset to buy. And we're not there yet. So we need to have the hikes. They've been behind the curve. They need to get ahead of the curve. Right. But that comes before the conference comes back.

23:45So we need to have that sequence.

23:46Tim Seymour:How do they get ahead of the I mean, they're going to hike in September. What else can they do to get it? They've been jawboning. They've been they have a thing with the U.S. I mean, what else can they do here? Just give you an example. Right. We had a meeting in July, and they didn't move, right? But there was nothing priced for that meeting, right? So how can you be a serious central bank that is worried about inflation, and then you've communicated in a way where there's nothing priced for the meeting? That kind of shows what kind of defensive posture they have. They need to get on the front foot and say, we're serious about this issue.

24:20We're going to do something in September, and we're ready to do something more, if needed, at the next meeting. And that communication we just haven't had yet. They need to take that step.

24:29Tim Seymour:Jens, always good to see you. Jens Nordvig, 159. Yeah, they're waiting for Treasury to bail him out, I think. And the flip side of that coin is, listen, Scott Besson understands that there's a problem. Acknowledgement's a good thing. It's what can he do to sort of figure it out. And he has said openly that they're going to do whatever it takes to get this situation under control. But what that takes could be a real sell-off in the equity market. And quite frankly, the Japanese to wake up one day and decide they're going to sell treasuries and equities, that's not going to be a good day to be along the equity market.

24:58And I think that day is coming sooner rather than later.

25:01Karen Finerman:Japan needs coordination. I know it's not supposed to happen, but between their fiscal and their monetary policy, unlike any other time in their history, Takeichi is great for the economy, for fiscal spending, but it's the wrong time. And I would just get back to the conversation we were having before. But long story short, you've got deficits running crazy around the world and they're pulling rates up higher everywhere.

25:22Melissa Lee:You know, back to the China growth thing, it's worth noting that we spent a lot of time talking about 800 billion, maybe a trillion dollars in CapEx here. And what percentage of GDP growth that we're seeing? Well, China, the big four, it's the ByteDance, the Baba, the Baidu and the Tencent. They're expected to spend 100 billion dollars. That's it this year. And so when you think about that, if they were kind of going pedal to the metal like we are, maybe that growth gets going. We know that consumer consumption is really weak. And as Ian just said, that export is the whole thing there. But it is interesting.

25:55Melissa Lee:It's worth noting. We spend so much time debating how much we're spending there over here and what they're doing and what they're being able to create. But you have to think on a relative basis that if they were to spend a few hundred more billion, it would be a better contributor to their growth.

26:08Tim Seymour:There's a lot more fast money to come. Here's what's coming up next. SpaceX cleared for takeoff. Shares jumping as some Wall Street Titans reveal major stakes in the rocket company. But does the rally have enough fuel to stay in orbit? Plus, meta in the hot seat. The landmark social media addiction case heads to trial. What's at stake? And whether the verdict could reshape the social space. You're watching Fast Money, live from the NASDAQ market site in Times Square. We're back right after this.

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27:37Karen Finerman:Spritz Vibe Summer Edition is ready to refresh your routine. Go find your Spritz Vibe before summer ends.

27:46Tim Seymour:Something amazing is happening in animation. Studios are processing data faster. That's because CDW showed them new ways to maximize their infrastructure, then built a flexible Dell Technologies data solution. More automation led to reduced maintenance times and greater efficiency, so that creativity stays the star of the show. Dell Technologies and CDW. Make amazing happen. Learn more at cdw.com slash delldatacenter. Welcome back to Fast Money. Nike is sinking 4 % today for its lowest close since September 2014. Shares have fallen nearly 40 % this year alone and are almost 80 % off the all-time high hit in late 2021.

28:31Tim Seymour:Closely followed retail analyst Matt Boss at J.P. Morgan downgrading the stock earlier this month saying attempts at a turnaround have yet to make their way through the company. I think that was apparent through results. But Tim, what do you make of this low?

28:44Karen Finerman:Well, I will say I actually sold a little bit of Nike in a couple of accounts today because the sense is that I don't think this is going to be getting away from you in terms of catalysts in the near term. North America actually looks a lot better. I think the inventory dynamic, I think a lot of the infrastructure shirt around DTC looks a lot better. I think there's a turn coming. And I think this is one of the world's foremost brands, certainly that in athleisure. But I think the consumer just doesn't need a lot of what they have to sell right now. That's the part of discretionary I worry about.

29:21I think the DTC model that they did probably gave away a lot of that shelf space to Ahoka, Orin, On. And I think they need to sort of reverse that. And that's when you see wholesale was up in North America at 10%, probably stands to the reason they should take back some of that shelf space. They saturated the market with Air Jordans. All the vintage stuff they saturated with because that was where they were only getting the bites from. They still need new blood at the top. Elliott came back, but he's a career Nike guy. Right? So you need somebody. And then you also, they're still spending the same amount of ad dollars, 1.7 billion in North America that they've spent for years.

30:01It's only been ratcheting up. You need to get into the influencer market the same way that everyone else is on social media. The legacy ad campaigns that they're doing just aren't working anymore. Turns out they probably did need stores more than they led you to believe that they did, number one. And competition comes in very quick ways. And when you don't realize it's there, you fall victim to it. And there's a lot of, listen, self-inflicted wounds without question. If there's good news, traded two and a half times normal volume today. So maybe you're seeing signs of capitulation. I don't think they report until September 24th.

30:31So I still think there's downside here.

30:33Tim Seymour:We had an analyst on a while ago on closing bill overtime about Nike, and they're going through sort of globally all the competitors in the local markets. So not just in the United States, but also, let's say, in China. You have Li Ning, and you have a lot of sort of homegrown competitors, things that U.S. investors aren't even thinking about because these are brands that we are not familiar with, But they are real competition in the other markets where Nike is hoping for some growth.

30:57Karen Finerman:Well, there's no question you can get some fashion buzz, Guy, and a pair of sneakers that actually you could probably still, you know, play your racquetball or whatever you do. I mean, I think it's a case where you have some designer sneakers out there or trainers, as they call them, across the pond. And I'm sorry, Guy, you need to probably get in here. First of all, I had a pair of Air Jordans. I had the original Air Jordans. What happened to them? I'll tell you what happened to them. One Halloween when my kids were very little, they asked our nanny at the time, Adriana, who may be watching, to make a scarecrow for Halloween.

31:30Tim Seymour:Oh, she used them as a shoe. She used some of my clothes and my sneakers. Of course, it rained that Halloween and subsequently ruined the Jordans, which would be probably worth a lot of money in today's dollar. Had they not been rained on. Had they not been rained on. Coming up, Metta's Big Tobacco Moment. Could the next major social media addiction case mark a watershed moment for the industry? what it all means for the Instagram parent when Fast Money returns.

32:02Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. Stocks lower to kick off the week. The Dow shedding 270 points for its fifth down day in six, while the S &P and Nasdaq posted back-to-back losses. Vista Energy jumping five and a half percent after Peter Thiel's hedge fund disclosed a stake in the Argentine oil producer. Teal Macro reporting it owns 1.2 million of the company's U.S.-listed shares, worth about$76 million at the end of Q2. That's the fund's second largest disclosed position behind Amazon. JetBlue dropping over 7 percent after Seaport downgraded the stock to a neutral from buy. Analysts say the airline could face prolonged high jet fuel costs as the straight of home moves looks unlikely to reopen soon.

32:41Tim Seymour:Constellation Brands falling 6 percent for its worst day since February. Berkshire Hathaway revealing it liquidated its position in the maker of Modelo Beer and Kim Crawford Wine during the second quarter. And Alibaba rising nearly 1 % on reports it is planning to sell its game development business for$1.5 billion as the China tech giant looks to keep funding its pivot into AI. Meanwhile, MetaShare is dropping 3.5 % just a day before the social media giant heads the federal court in the landmark child safety case. Julie Borson's got the details here. Julia. Well, Melissa, this trial is the highest stakes test yet of youth safety allegations against Meta because it's several states coming together for a bellwether case.

33:21A key plaintiff, California Attorney General Rob Bonta, saying ahead of opening arguments tomorrow, quote, exploiting our most vulnerable residents to boost corporate profits is not only morally wrong, it's also illegal. Now, this is just the latest in a slew of lawsuits prompting Meta to report$2.4 billion in legal costs last quarter. And those figures could grow dramatically. Meta is saying in a filing that they think damages from this trial could be as high as$1.4 trillion.

33:48Tim Seymour:The lawyers from the state say they're asking for$200 billion. Now, just as potentially damaging, the states are asking for big changes to Meta's algorithm that could damage its revenue down the line, including eliminating features such as infinite scroll and notifications, asking the court to make Meta prioritize content focused on well-being instead of engagement, asking it to implement age restrictions and time limits for young users. Now, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg and Instagram head Adam Mosseri are both expected to testify, though, Melissa, we're not sure just when yet. We'll be hearing from them yet.

34:23Back to you.

34:23Tim Seymour:Julia, you were pointing out before that the amount that Meta could say the case could cost versus what the state AGs are saying, it's a huge difference. It's a huge difference. And I think what Meta is trying to do is say this incredibly large amount that they are asking for, which is effectively the same amount as Meta's market cap, is an inappropriate amount of damages given all the efforts that Meta makes to protect kids and teens on their platform. So I think we're going to hear a lot about how their ask, the state AGs' ask is unreasonable. and we'll also probably hear a lot about all the good things that Meta does as part of Meta's defense that we'll hear tomorrow, starting tomorrow.

35:05Tim Seymour:Julia, thank you. Julia Boorstin. Why is this different this time around? We've been through all sorts of different tests of Meta's ethics when it comes to children, when it comes to data privacy, etc. Why is this one doing this to the stock?

35:22Karen Finerman:Well, it does seem to have more momentum in multiple locations. And I do think there's an element here of social media that the public has gotten sick of. I really do. I mean, I think there's there's an if you listen to young people, many of them will tell you. And I think this is if they're if they're living a much healthier life, that it's become much less part of what they're trying to do. Doesn't show in Meta's numbers. I think this is a story you have to listen to. But I will say it doesn't usually stick. It's bipartisan here. It's global. So, yeah, it's clearly a problem. But then you ask yourself, OK, it's off 28 percent-ish from the all-time high.

36:02I think it was this week last year that it traded up to, what, 790 or so. So what is priced in? I mean, you can't really argue with it on valuation. Now you're just concerned with headline risk. But I think you're getting pretty close here just in terms of being able to buy this. You figure the headlines will sort of go away and then people wake up to, wait a second, this is just way too cheap.

36:20Melissa Lee:Yeah, and that's a lesson we've learned over the last 15 years when it comes to these platforms. You know, anytime anyone comes for them, it ends up being, yeah, there's a bunch of hullabaloo, you know, they go in front of Congress or this or whatever. You have all these Congress people who could not be less, you know, I mean, like the questioning, their lack of understanding of these platforms. And maybe that's changed a little bit. But when you think about it, I mean, their revenues keep going up. Their time on the platforms keep going up. Who's that upset about this? It's like, listen, it's not my jam.

36:48Melissa Lee:And I wish that my people, like my kids and everything like that, were not on it. But they're addicted. They've broken our brains. And for many of the folks that are actually bringing their suits, it's the same thing. So, again, I think it's going to be, you know, any damages are not going to be$1.5 trillion or anything like that. And if it's like anything near what their legal fees have been, you know, a couple hundred million here or there, I just think that to Guy's point, I think it probably ends up rallying if it's not as bad as people think. If you look at it, it's had a declining trend line for a year now.

37:19I'm not worried about the damages. I'm worried about if they change the algorithm. And this seems like the most at risk on that side of the equation. So I would wait on buying it, putting new money to work on Meta until you actually see it clear this.

37:31Tim Seymour:Coming up, reaching for the stars, what is behind the latest jump in SpaceX stock and whether the next big share in law could put the rally to the test. Fast Money is back right after this.

37:43As America celebrates its 250th anniversary, CNBC spotlights the companies that rose with the nation and continue to shape its future.

37:54Tim Seymour:I think America is incredible. It's this combination of innovation, optimism, capital formation and talent. I'm Yishan Hung, president and CEO of State Street Investment Management. State Street Investment Management is one of the largest asset managers in the world. I'm incredibly proud to be a part of State Street. This is a company that has a history that is more than 230 years old. When I think about the history of State Street, it very much mirrors the many chapters of America's economic history. We rose through the industrial growth, the rise of the public markets, globalization trends, and today's modern investing environment.

38:40Tim Seymour:I'm a daughter of immigrants and a first-generation American, and my parents came to this country with the belief that education, hard work, and opportunity would create a better future for their children. And it is that belief that has really shaped my entire life. So when I think about the American promise, it's not so much that success is guaranteed, but that opportunities exist and that your starting point doesn't necessarily determine your ultimate destination. This is a country where people believe that tomorrow can be better than today, where people are willing to take risks, solve big problems and invest.

39:21Tim Seymour:And you couple that with one of the deepest and most dynamic capital markets in the world where you have transparency, rule of law, All together, I think this is what makes our environment here, our financial markets so exciting.

39:46Tim Seymour:We've got a news alert on a potential stake sale for the L.A. Lakers. Alex Sherman's got the details. Alex. Yeah, so some breaking news here, Melissa. About 90 minutes ago, ESPN broke the story that the Buss family is selling its minority share stake to Bob Iger and Josh Kushner, who, of course, last week bought the majority or agreed to buy the majority of the Lakers from Mark Walter. However, CNBC has obtained a letter from the attorney for Jeannie Buss. Jeannie Buss is the governor of the Lakers and the controlling shareholder of the team. I want to read the first paragraph of this letter. This letter is from Jeannie Buss' attorney addressed to the attorneys of her siblings.

40:34It says, as you know, this afternoon, Shams Charania, who's the reporter for ESPN, falsely reported that the six Buss siblings voted to sell the 17.8 % ownership stake in the Lakers to Josh Kushner and Bob Iger, and that my client Jeannie Buss is out as controlling owner. This is just the latest instance of a years-long pattern whereby Joey and Jesse Buss leak false, defamatory, and pernicious information to Mr. Charania for the malicious purpose of doing harm to the Los Angeles Lakers, so long as Dr. Buss's chosen successor Jeannie Buss carries out her father's wishes. The letter goes on to make the case that Jeannie Buss is not in favor of the sale of the team and that her controlling ownership should trump any sort of majority vote that the siblings may or may not make because of a 2017 ruling where the court basically affirmed Jeannie Buss as the controlling owner.

41:31There's still, we've yet to hear a response, of course, is that we're just getting this letter for the first time from the Buss siblings in response to this letter. But what we can at least tell you is that Jeannie Buss is clearly not for a sale. People familiar with the matter have told me she's not for a sale. She believes that there is still more value to be gained in the Lakers by holding on to the to the minority stake that the Buss family currently owns. All right.

42:01Tim Seymour:Complicated story, Alex. Thanks for breaking it down. Alex Sherman is developing story here. Now let's get to SpaceX firing on all cylinders to start the week. Elon Musk's rocket company surging four and a half percent today. After the latest 13-net filing showed some big buys in the second quarter, Alphabet disclosing the biggest stake, more than 500 million shares worth about$94 billion. NVIDIA reporting a$21 billion position. Harvard and AMD also reporting significant stakes. So interesting to see who's getting involved in the latest quarter. These are not necessarily long-time holds.

42:34Karen Finerman:Well, if this was if this was, again, SpaceX, the private company, none of this. It's not that surprising to hear about where there are investments and significant ones by other companies and private investors. I would just bring it back to the second quarter numbers. I don't think SpaceX is worth the sum of the parts right now. I think the view is that, like we've been talking about with other companies like Anthropic, the annual run rate is very impressive when you look at those second quarter numbers. And they were across all three segments. So I think the numbers were strong enough. But let's make no mistake.

43:08Karen Finerman:If we're back in the free fall that got the whole part of that world bouncing on July 29th, SpaceX would not be bouncing now if the rest of the world in AI and memory was not bouncing. I think it was a huge short squeeze as well. So you had an over 30 percent short interest in the stock. It was trading at$104,$105, down from$225. You have a who's who of who owns the stock right now. You have another unlock coming in the next couple of days. Not as big. It's a third of the last one. But everyone was afraid of that one. So you have to have the shorts back out to get another real run in it. But I think people want to own the name right now.

43:43Tim Seymour:Dan wasn't afraid. You were not afraid. You said it would bounce.

43:46Melissa Lee:Yeah, and it bounced because the sentiment got so bad. I mean, here's my takeaway from this and all those disclosures. I mean, they're all in it together. It's not just the circular financing. It's not just the deals with each other. It's like all the frenemy stuff. And now let's just own each other's stock. You know, that sort of thing. It's just when this goes wrong, it has the potential to really snowball in many different ways.

44:08Tim Seymour:Coming up. I was going to say, well, what I was going to say was, before the show, Tim, Melissa was saying that Elgin Baylor was her favorite Los Angeles Laker. Which I really found fascinating.

44:19Karen Finerman:Well, I thought she would have gone with like a Jamal Silk Wilkes or a Mitch Kupchak or possibly a Michael Cooper or a Rambis.

44:26Tim Seymour:There's too much to talk about here. Sorry. Coming up, we're hammering down on home improvement, Home Depot and Lowe's earnings on deck. What to expect from the Retailer's Report and the other key housing data to watch this week. More Fast Money in two.

44:44Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. Retail earnings season kicks off tomorrow with Home Depot before the bell shares up nearly 14 percent in the last three months. The report as the housing sector remains plagued by affordability concerns. The August reading of builder sentiment showing just a small uptick from the prior month. stubbornly high mortgage rates, obviously a huge factor in Home Depot's underperformance relative to the markets. Bouncing into earnings, but I mean, it's been an underperformer now for a year and a half or so. I mean, I don't think you can look valuation wise 21 times. I don't think it's unreasonable given where it's been historically.

45:18I think the problem is interest rates are going higher and I think the labor market is deteriorating. So it's hard to be bullish in the home builders at this point, I think.

45:26Tim Seymour:And the CEO's on medical leave, so there's another sort of element of uncertainty to the story.

45:31Karen Finerman:Yeah, I just believe that we don't know the dynamics around margin. They've gotten a little bit worse. We know the home equity market is something that's at least more pressure than ever. I just think also they've run into price increases across core products that are unsustainable for a lot of people. So I like the stock at 300. I don't have to buy it here.

45:52Tim Seymour:All right. Up next, final trades.

46:01Karen Finerman:final trade time timbo alibaba valuation makes sense a lot of cash in the balance sheet and guess what also an ai play the uri united rentals had a beat and raise last two quarters i think it has more juice dan yeah tim i don't think you chase work day okay but i think where there's

46:17Melissa Lee:smoke there's fire and i don't chase a thing don't chase you know actually byron scott's Melissa said you were her favorite lake of all time. Arizona. Agnico Eagle Mines, Melms.

46:31Tim Seymour:Thanks for watching Fast Money, Mad Money with Jim Kramer starts right now.

46:52expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Fast Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com forward slash Fast Money disclaimer.

47:13Karen Finerman:Most ice cream is good, but not Jenny's. Jenny's ice cream is more like an obsession. What you get from over two decades of tasting and tweaking and throwing it out and starting over, chasing flavors until they feel alive. That might sound crazy, and that's because it is. Jenny's. Often imitated, never duplicated, always splendid.