Meta’s Social Subscriptions… And Building A Cash Buffer Amid Market Irony 5/27/26

18:02Melissa Lee:What happened to all that deregulation that was supposed to come, right? Like, that was like a big, you know, supposedly a tailwind into the new administration, right? We haven't really seen any. We haven't seen any real M &A. You look at the fact that the banks, you know, have not confirmed any of the new highs in the S &P 500 over the last couple months. We haven't seen the regionals. And they were supposed to be a big beneficiary of dereg. I just find it interesting that this group really lags the broader market. And I just can't remember a time where you've seen this sort of outperformance by some big drivers.

18:30Melissa Lee:And we know where it's coming from. And then you just have the banks. And listen, there is dispersion right now. If you look at Morgan and you look at Goldman, they are trading like they're going to bring a bunch of trillion-dollar IPOs. But at the end of the day, J.P. Morgan is going to be involved in all those deals. And that's not trading particularly well. So to me, I just think that's something to keep an eye on. I always thought it was sly as a fox. I mean, cunning is fine, by the way. Cunning is a fine word. I think cunning is a great word. I don't think it's used enough. And I think sly as a fox is probably a lower brow version.

19:01You know, a good point.

19:01Melissa Lee:It's an excellent point by you, which is why I would, yeah. I gravitated towards that. You went to higher level.

19:07Tim Seymour:Sly versus cunning?

19:08Melissa Lee:Yeah, well, I mean, actually, if anybody cares, my nickname in college was sly. You do best with one-syllable words. Monosyllabic. Yeah, yeah.

19:17Tim Seymour:Yeah, that's my history. All right, coming up. We're watching Shares of Salesforce after its latest earnings report. The details and numbers in the latest quarter next, plus an energy drain hitting crude prices. WTI back below 90 bucks a barrel. How much lower could prices go? What does it mean for energy stocks? Do not go anywhere. Fast Money is back in June.

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20:58Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. An earnings alert on Salesforce, the enterprise software giant lowered despite posting top and bottom line results at Beat Street estimates. Conference calls underway. CNBC's Seema Modi has the latest. Hey, Seema. Melissa, we're on the call. and CEO Mark Benioff really reinforcing the growth in AgentForce, its key AI agent platform with annual recurring revenue now above$1 billion from$800 million in the previous quarter. I also spoke to Salesforce's chief operating and financial officer, Robin Washington, and when asked about the Q2 guidance, which came in a bit short, she pointed me to the full year raise that the company revealed.

21:29Tim Seymour:And in response to the flurry of executive departures to OpenAI and Anthropic, a story that we've been reporting on, she said, we're going to lose some talent to startups. It's the nature of what happens in Silicon Valley, and that's giving them the opportunity to elevate existing talent and recruit. This as Snowflake shares continue to skyrocket, up 32 percent. Product revenue outlook came in much better than expected, and that, Melissa, is really throwing cold water on these competitive concerns, the likes from Datadog, which operates in the data infrastructure space. Snowflake also beefing up its investment in Amazon Web Services to$6 billion, which includes its custom chip.

22:07Tim Seymour:And again, the stock is higher, Mosa. Seema, thank you. Seema Modi. And be sure to tune into Mad Money tonight. Jim will talk to the CEOs of both Salesforce and Snowflake. It all starts 6 p.m. Eastern time. You will not want to miss this. It's an interesting contrast in terms of how the stocks are performing, what they've said, and the fact that CRM is legacy enterprise software. Snowflake is not. Investors are willing to see sort of a narrative change in Snowflake.

22:33Melissa Lee:Yeah, I mean, I almost feel bad for Mark Benioff. I mean, he's been talking about agents for like a long time, and you would have thought they'd be in the catbird seat to do this and kind of fend off, you know, some of these upstarts and some of these, you know, LLMs that have just come in harder, these frontier labs. And, you know, it's just that the investors are not buying it. I mean, we talked about this last week. We saw Workday up, you know, 8, 9 percent in the aftermarket, filled in that gap almost, you know, immediately. Zoom did the same thing. Yeah, ServiceNow. There's still not a bid for them right now.

22:58Melissa Lee:And when you see all the money where it's flowing, it's like people are not willing to take a shot. Now, whatever's going on in Snowflake just seems a bit unnatural. But, you know, short squeeze, I don't know. It is, yeah, 6 % short. I just think the most important thing about Snowflake is that they increased their fiscal 27 guidance by 4 % from February. This is supposed to be the time when software companies are getting their lunch taken, eating, all of those things. And, in fact, if anything, they're reasserting their place here, essentially with the same clients and who probably have more demand.

23:30And new clients, a lot of new clients at Snowflake and bigger clients as well. So that's some pretty good momentum. But the magnitude of the move is surprising. Guy, are you okay? Are you sweating a little bit? What's the matter, Guy? A couple things. Is it wet there? What happened?

23:43Melissa Lee:Can we do a close-up on my – I don't know. You're schvitzing? What are you doing? I'm not schvitzing on my shoulder. You've got some pits going. No, I don't have pits. Those are not my pits, Tim. I mean, you're familiar with what armpits are? Well, I mean, sometimes. My shoulder, I was congratulating a colleague on something, which I won't get into detail. And I probably got his or her makeup on my shoulder in our embrace. And in the break, I asked Miles to get it off, and Miles screwed it up, as usual. Why did he screw it up? Well, because he just didn't do it correctly. As the saying goes, if you want something done, do it yourself.

24:16Melissa Lee:By the way, once again, an animal reference, catbird seat. Oh, yes. That's why you're grimacing. I was grimacing. Like a Cheshire cat. We love Miles. It wasn't Miles. It was my fault. But thanks for pointing it out. Well, I think the folks at home probably in the A block realized you were soiled.

24:34Tim Seymour:And now he's wet. But by the way, with the sales force, the guidance on Q2 was down a little bit,

24:42Melissa Lee:but just trust us in the back half. Remember the back half loaded? Don't love that.

24:46Tim Seymour:A lot more Fast Money to come. Here's what's coming up next.

25:15Times Square. We're back right after this.

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26:24Tim Seymour:and to make my community proud.

26:26Melissa Lee:Oh, what a brilliant tackle from Naomi Kerma.

26:30Tim Seymour:What would you like the power to do? Bank of America. Proud to be the official bank of U.S. soccer. Bank of America, N.A., member FDSE. Welcome back to Fast Money. Oil prices tumbling today on hopes of progress in U.S. negotiations with Iran. WTI crude settling below$90 a barrel, its lowest price in over a month. Brent was below$95. Secretary of State Marco Rubio saying during the White House cabinet meeting today that the U.S. will give Iran talks, quote, every chance to succeed as the war close in on 90 days. And Karen, you made some trades in oil today. I did. XLE, which I have been adding.

27:07I added from lower, added from higher because it was higher yesterday. So that sort of means you went home long as if you bought it there. But I added some today. I think oil could come in more for sure, but I really like the underpinnings of the energy trade.

27:20Melissa Lee:For some reason, the OIH decided to carry today the downside. I think it's an opportunity. Schlumberger sold off, but not nearly commensurate, I think, with the broader ETF. I'm with Karen on this. I think you've got to still stay along these oil names. I'm long SLB. We can't call it Schlumberger anymore. Apparently we were doing it wrong. And active rig counts jumped last week, really for the first time since the war began. So I think you're seeing a delayed response. And what we all have said and pointed out is that the need to restock and build and remove energy insecurity, in other words, by doing everything you can to find new places and drill, is great for Schlumberger, SLB.

27:57Tim Seymour:Are you surprised, though, that there wasn't more market reaction to oil prices moving to the lowest level in six weeks? The stock market reaction? I mean, I thought, you know, yesterday. Well, yeah, I guess that's I thought bonds would move more. Yeah. So that was a little bit surprising. But I think but we'll see. We have some PPI data coming up as well. PC tomorrow. Tomorrow. Yeah. Right. So that's been weighing on the market. You look like you've cleaned yourself up a little bit. It's dry. It's dry. That's what happens. I didn't I wasn't able to get your blow dryer in the break. Well, it's in the it's in the room if you need it.

28:31It's a part of it.

28:32Tim Seymour:Anyway, coming up, building a cash buffer, how a top market strategist is positioning amid all the uncertainty and why he says there's irony playing out in the market right now. The details when Fast Money returns.

28:49Missed a moment of fast? Catch us anytime on the go. Follow the Fast Money podcast. We're back right after this.

28:59Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. Stocks in and out of positive territory today, but major indices all setting record closes today. The Dow jumping nearly 200 points, the S &P and Nasdaq both fractionally higher. Cybersecurity firms Zscale are dropping more than 31 percent despite beating top and bottom line expectations in its report last night. The company giving weak guidance and striking a cautious tone around customer acquisition. acquisition. And check out Cathie Wood's ARK ETF over the past month, up less than 2%, underperforming the broader tech space. The Nasdaq up more than 7 % in that time frame.

29:29Tim Seymour:She recently bought$32 million worth of newly public Cerebris stock. And some more after hours action, HP topping expectations, Synopsys beating top and bottom line estimates, Marvell doing the same, hiking Q2 earnings and revenue guidance, that stock up 12%. FedEx Freight, which will be spun off from parent company FedEx next Tuesday, will join the S &P 500 when it starts trading. It's replacing EPAM Systems, which is moving to the small cap index. We're seeing a slight pop there. FedEx Spray will also join the Dow Transports, replacing American Airlines. Well, investors may want to consider increasing their exposure to cash with stocks at all-time highs.

30:07Tim Seymour:It's an asset Mike Cantopoulos likes right now. He is the head of multi-asset macro Investing at Janice Henderson Investors. Michael, great to see you. Nice to see you as well. How high are you in cash and how unusual is that for you? We're about 7 % cash across our portfolios. That's a little unusual for us. I mean, equity markets tend to go up, as we all know. And so you don't want to be underinvested per se. But I think during these times where you have so much uncertainty around what's going on with Iran, what's going on with inflation, the potential for rate volatility, which I think could be quite, quite large.

30:40I don't think you want to be overexposed either to the equity market here. And so what we did in our portfolios is we raised cash, but we didn't change the overall structure of the portfolio. So it's not like we added defensive stocks. We didn't go and buy staples, healthcare, and utilities. We actually still continue to have a cyclical bent, but we just raised cash to have on the sidelines in case there's a drop in the market to be a little bit more opportunistic.

31:02Tim Seymour:In terms of how we should think, though, I understand that the overall construction remains the same, but it's got to come from somewhere. So walk us through where it comes from. It does have to come through somewhere. So the way that our portfolio is currently positioned is we're overweight international markets, underweight the U.S. We brought down basically Europe and Japan, but we also brought down value in the U.S. And I think that's the right call. The expression is, again, more about volatility and being prepared for higher volatility than it is about crawling into the fetal position under your desk and being scared of what's out there.

31:40The macro environment is actually quite strong. So I think this is more about waiting out the storm.

31:44Melissa Lee:What does bond volatility look like? We got up north of 460. The market did not like that. What does it look like to you? You know, Guy, I've been saying this for a while as a view. I think the 10-year is going higher. I think that you could see real serious gaps in the 10, and I think you could easily approach 5%. And, you know, if Chair Warsh were to somehow convince the committee, which I don't think he'll do in fairness, but if he were to convince the committee to cut rates, I think you could gap very quickly to five and a half percent. I mean, the economy strong earnings growth we're seeing is fantastic.

32:16There's no lack of credit availability, which is the whole point of tight monetary policy. And so if the Fed cuts rates into inflation that's going up and growth that's strong, then we're going to see five plus them the 10 year. If they keep where they are or even hike, which they could do, I think you're going to be range bound between that 4.4 and 4.6 range. So does any of your cash allocation, is any of that because cash is actually paying something right now as opposed to just a dry powder? 100%. I mean, you know, the calculus was we can sit there and earn 5 % or roughly 5 % in cash and, again, have that dry powder and put it to work at some point.

32:56or we can own a highly volatile equity market or a fixed income market that could see some price loss as rates go higher. And so absolutely, Karen, the 5 % or 4.5 % cash level is definitely reasonably attractive here.

33:10Melissa Lee:Well, you just mentioned that you're moving more towards a cyclical sort of bent. What does that look like to you? Like what would be one sector that would start to think a bit more cyclical, less secular, that we should be keeping an eye on? So we've liked industrials for a little bit. You know, if you actually look over the last 10 years, even small and mid cap American industrial companies have outperformed the Nasdaq, which is a pretty crazy stat. So we continue to like industrials. It's been somewhat of a mainstay in our portfolios when we think, you know, there's some cyclicality and some positive momentum in earnings.

33:46Materials is another space. We've been overweight emerging markets ex-China this year, which has obviously been a nice call. Now, you got a little bit of that sort of chip momentum in play there. But the actual underlying fundamentals for emerging markets, excluding China, are quite good. And so those are three cyclical areas of the world and at a sector level that we like. I like EM, too. I still don't believe EM can do what it's doing if rates go higher. And that is something you're concerned. And what I hear, you haven't really quite said it, but it's asymmetric risk in the rates market here, no?

34:20I do think it's asymmetric risk. I think there's a world in which EM does OK with higher rates. I mean, it's obviously done well as rates have gone from about 390 to 460. And emerging markets ex-China has done quite well. So I think there is a world in which it does well. Remember, much of emerging markets is exposed to the commodity complex, certainly the producers from Latam. And so if those rates are being driven by higher commodity prices, I mean, you could see that feed through and see some positive catalyst for emerging markets or parts of emerging markets. Yep.

34:49Tim Seymour:Michael, always great to see you. Thank you. Thank you. Michael Cantopoulos. Do you agree with this notion that we are at a point now where you should pare back risk?

34:58Melissa Lee:I'm not. Well, I've thought that for a while. It's been wrong. But I think in terms of his timing, I think it's probably right. And his concern about the bond market, the concerns that I share. And I think the worst, if you want rates to go lower, the last thing you want is for the Fed to cut rates, which, by the way, I don't think they're going to do. Karen? Well, you know, with the VIX here, it seems like it's a little too rosy for me. So I'm always long, but I do want to have some protection. So that's been basically selling some calls against things. Implied vol in the Treasury market is back to pre-war levels.

35:29And you can't tell me we should be there. I mean, that's the asymmetric side of this. I don't know that we have to go running to 5 % on the 10-year. Not saying that, but risk-reward, agree. I think it's pricey.

35:41Melissa Lee:It's pretty amazing, though. Think about how many things have been thrown at the market. Guy was just talking about 4.7 in the 10-year. Now it's 4.45 or whatever it is. I mean, like the market doesn't like the stock market investors just don't care. I mean, there's nothing that you can throw at nothing geopolitical, you know. And, you know, when you're looking at 25 percent year over year earnings growth, I don't think anybody was coming in and thinking that, you know. And so the idea that you would cut interest rates into that sounds absolutely ludicrous because the market hasn't cared with Fed funds at, you know, four and a half.

36:09Melissa Lee:It didn't care at five and a half. Although it is cheaper to fund the deficit, though. We've got inflation like we haven't had since since late 2022, really. I mean, and again, the numbers don't print that, but it's in the pipeline. But some of the asset prices and some of what we're seeing going on in private markets and we talked about sports teams last night. I mean, you can't tell me this isn't a world where I think I think the Fed could go and all would be fine. And I mean higher.

36:36Tim Seymour:We have a news alert here on Dell. We want to get to shares are higher after the Pentagon announced a nine point seven billion dollar deal with the company to supply software to the military. CEO Michael Dell pledged more than$6 billion last year to fund Trump accounts. Dell reports earnings after the bell tomorrow. Shares close at a record today. They are higher by about 3 % in the after-recession. You're a shareholder. I am. Dell is now, through Dell's trajectory, my biggest position, which wasn't what I thought it would be at the beginning of the year. So it's 315 and change in the aftermarket now.

37:12I guess that's not shocking to anyone. They are tight, Dell, and the Trump administration. Clearly. Good for you for holding on. One of the hardest things to do is to hold on to your winners. And people tend to sell them too soon. I've sold some calls against it. Any call I did sell wasn't great. Tomorrow will be less great.

37:31Tim Seymour:Coming up, sweetening the deal. The CEO of Cygnos joins us next to discuss the case for glucose monitoring to boost weight loss and how the health tech startup's freshly announced funding round could strengthen its role in the booming obesity management market. More Fast Money right after this.

37:49Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. Health tech startup Cygnos announcing a$20 million funding round today as the AI-powered glucose monitoring platform pushes deeper into the red-hot obesity market. The deal backed by Google Ventures, Dexcom, and Blue Cross Blue Shield of Alabama also includes a distribution deal to put Cygnus' subscription plans on Dexcom's direct-to-consumer site. Here on set for more is Cygnus' CEO, Sherem Faladgar-Mercer. Sherem, great to have you with us. Thank you for having me on. What does the money allow you to do at this point? It allows us to start to really expand this and focus on how do we help our members across three different paradigms.

38:24We have the first one, which is Cygnus. Is there a core audience for people that don't necessarily need to be on a GLP-1 or don't want to be? And then we have the second one, which is Cygnus Plus. GLP-1 and Cygnus. This is for the fact that the number of Americans that are getting on a GLP-1 has doubled from 6 % to 12 % just in the last 18 months, in the last 12 months. And I think the reality here is that you can now see the impact of your behavior, see the impact of your exercise, of your diet, and of your GLP-1 on your glucose. And taking that and how do we help you optimize that. And then the third one is how do we help with people that are getting off the GLP-1.

38:58There's 15 ,000 people getting off of GLP-1 every day, and the latest stats are showing within 12 months we're gaining all the weight back. We created the Cygnus GLP-1 graduation program to help people when they're ready and make sure they have the diet, the exercise, and changes to maintain that weight.

39:14Tim Seymour:In case viewers didn't see you the first time on Fast Money, it's actually a device, and you put it in your arm. They're like little needles that actually read your glucose real time, and you can see everything sort of on a dashboard on your phone or computer. It's an app. And it tells you when your glucose is spiking, when you're not, you've logged what you eat, et cetera. I'm curious, though, because there's a cost involved. It's a monthly subscription or an annual subscription. And how that has been shaped, if anything, by the lower cost of GLP-1s now. I mean, it costs very little to be on a GLP-1 pill, for instance, every month.

39:51Tim Seymour:So are you finding that consumers are comparing? You know, do I pay for this or do I pay for this? And I can get a GLP-1 pill for this much a month instead of paying for a Cygnus subscription, which requires a lot more work. Yeah. No, I think there's a lot of both opportunity, but also as people look at this, they think, what is right for me? Some people don't want to be on a medication, whether it's a pill or whether it's an injectable. And in that scenario, it's how can we help keep them where they are? And then others think, hey, if I'm going to combine this together, what is the most effective way to ensure that I'm successful on my weight journey.

40:24And I think the struggle we face with 75 % of Americans that are overweight or obese is the fact that a lot of us have lost a few pounds here or there, but we've struggled to keep it off. So I think both parts of that weight management journey are a struggle.

40:35Melissa Lee:Talk about the novelty aspect. It's great for the first couple weeks, couple months. Do people stay with it or is there a waning period where, and is there a next-gen device where it's maybe not as intrusive? Yeah, no. What's really interesting here is we see the typical customer arc when they come on the solution, they have within the first week, three or four aha moments. They have the salad at the restaurant next door and they don't realize it has as much sugar as four Oreos in it from the salad dressing. And they're starting to put that together and realize this is what's affecting me. I don't see the results till I get on the scale and that's a lagging indicator.

41:09That's usually one, two, three weeks away. How do we help you today in anticipation of you're on the right path or we need to adjust slightly? And that's where I think this is really exciting for meeting people where they are at the right time and giving them the toolkit that hasn't existed. Historically, you don't drive your car without looking at the dashboard and figuring out the signals you see. We want to help you on that journey. Sharon, what about your dashboard or your technology or your hardware? It gives you a competitive moat. Seems to me there's a lot of good technology out there. You have incredible partners, by the way, and your position, I think, may have something to do with it.

41:40But what's the answer there? Yeah, I think the key really is not how do we just give someone an AI coach. It's how do we build the AI into the user experience so that the more you use our system, the more successful you are in our weight journey. And that's what we see. I wish, frankly, every app I used on my phone did that. I'd be thrilled to use my phone more often. And I think for us, taking that technology and making it feel like you don't need a PhD in statistics to figure out all of this data that you have. For example, we give you a weight signal that incorporates all this information and helps you decide and figure out, are you on the right path before you see it show up on the scale.

42:14Tim Seymour:Shoram, great to have you back. Good to see you. Keep us posted. I appreciate it. All right. Karen, what do you make of, I mean, it's an interesting device in this sort of space, which is really focused on pharmaceuticals. Well, as someone who's very connected, though, I'm charging my Oura ring right now, and I got that eight away and all the kinds of things. I mean, people like the data. Sometimes, though, I don't know. How much data do we all want to have? Yeah, it's overwhelming. Every morning on the way to school, my son asked me as if to show off, Dad, what was your sleep score last night?

42:47I don't have a good sleep score. And so maybe too much data.

42:53Tim Seymour:Coming up, what is driving auto stocks? Shares of GM and Ford are speeding higher today. How are traders are steering into the group? More Fast Money in two.

43:12Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. The automakers are revving up again today. General Motors and Ford have both rallied double digits in just one week, with Ford hitting its highest in almost four years. Today's gains spurred by a report that both companies want preliminary approval for industrial bank charters from the FDIC. That's according to the New York Times. This is sort of an interesting one. Well, it's funny because, and Dan brought up maybe the lack of D-Reg going on in the finance world. There's been a lot of nice D-Reg if you're an automaker. Everything from emissions to what's going on in the broadening of their businesses and where they're actually expanding into ancillary businesses.

43:46So it gets back to valuation and free cash flow. This is an interesting concept. But, you know, GM right now, even based upon the numbers we have in the move in the stock, even after today's move, is trading south the seven times forward. And that's very attractive for a company that's executing.

44:01Melissa Lee:GM is still the place to be. Tim and Karen have talked about it. Good for Ford, by the way, for figuring something out. But in the game of would you rather, I think it's still General Motors over letter F.

44:10Tim Seymour:I mean, there's also the undercurrent of their now energy plays in terms of Ford energy and its use of batteries. And also GM, you know, developing a battery for the use of moon rovers, basically. I mean, so this is an interesting sort of twist also for these automakers. Yeah. So one of the things I was thinking about is Silverado and how how great those margins are and how how vulnerable they may be. But I actually thinking with all of the infrastructure build, we'll continue to see some strength in Silverados for a little while. I always look over to Dan. Oh, what is that noise? Is that are you have a hair dryer on set?

44:53I can't hear you.

44:56Tim Seymour:Thank you, Miles. Well, it's now dry. Easy on my hair dryer. Take it easy. Amazingly way of going to plug this in on Santa.

45:04Melissa Lee:You guys don't find it interesting that GM and Ford can't make electric cars, but they can make energy packs and things that are going to...

45:15Melissa Lee:By the way, Jim Farley.

45:16Tim Seymour:Yes.

45:17Melissa Lee:Georgetown grad. Georgetown grad. Spoken Georgetown's graduation last week.

45:21Tim Seymour:Nice.

45:22Melissa Lee:He was great. All right.

45:23Tim Seymour:Just saying. Up next. Go Horace. Final Trades.

45:43Tim Seymour:Final Trades, Tim. I hope you didn't blow a fuse on my baby bliss hairdryer. GM, buy it. Karen. I've got to zig when the market zags and buying some XLEs. Here, Dan.

45:57Melissa Lee:Yeah, you know what Guy always says? Bulls make money. Bears make money. Pigs get slaughtered. Back to the animal house. You don't chase the SMH. You don't chase the SMH.

46:09Tim Seymour:Dan, Guy, can we level with America?

46:13Melissa Lee:About?

46:13Tim Seymour:The hairdryer.

46:14Melissa Lee:I did not actually plug it in. I had a hairdryer application sound that I played and it went through my microphone. And it's not my hair dryer, by the way. Oh, really? Oh, yeah. Yeah, it's a better one. Dollar gen.

46:26Tim Seymour:Much bigger. That money's up next. All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet, or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such.

46:57To view the full Fast Money Disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com forward slash Fast Money Disclaimer. Hi, I'm Jennifer Garner.

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