Navigating 3 Big Stock Moves… And Opportunities in Private Credit 6/3/25

0:02Live from the Nasdaq market site in the heart of New York City's Times Square this is Fast and what it says about the future of AI. Plus, CrowdStrike drops from their all-time highs after its latest earnings report. Dollar General hosts its best day ever. And Ford gets a big bump in sales in May. Can the carmaker keep driving higher? I'm Melissa Lee. Coming to you live from the studio, be at the NASDAQ. On the desk tonight, Tim Seymour, Karen Feinerman, Dan Nathan, and Guy Adami. We start off with a tale of three stocks driving today's action. Boeing rising nearly a percent. Netflix dipping slightly into the red after hitting an all-time high early in the session.

0:47We start off with NVIDIA surging almost 3 % in a strong day for chip stocks. The chip maker also catching a bit on headlines out of Taiwan Semi's Investor Day, with that CEO brushing off concerns over the impact of tariffs so far and saying that AI demand remains robust. NVIDIA surpassing Microsoft to once again become the most valuable stock in the market, with a total value of almost$3.5 trillion. It's the first time at the top since January 24th. But what do you do with the shares here? Buy or sell? Guy. Well, you're familiar with that meatloaf, the singer. Mr. Loaf. Mr. Loaf. Two out of three.

1:23Exactly. Do you have a real name? Do you have a real name on meatloaf? Not Jim Steinman. It was like Mackinac or something. I'm sorry. I apologize to you. NVIDIA is the out of the two. That's the third one that I've obviously not gotten right. And here we are. One forty one, which is where we're trading after they reported earnings, an earnings report that we collectively said was very good. The margins were great. Everything was alike. The stock actually sold off in a few days after, got down to 134, and it felt like a sort of a replay of what we saw in January. But it's not. Now you have analysts sort of piling in.

1:56You still have to take at that 153 level. And given today's price action, it feels like it might happen. And there's also a report, I think, in the information yesterday that they're going to develop a new China chip, basically, that goes right up until the, you know, the limits in terms of exporting AI chips, the H30, I think, you know, B30, excuse me. Yeah, and this happens. Obviously, there's been a lot of back and forth. And, you know, we throw NVIDIA in that sort of final battle fought with U.S. tech brands and Tesla, Apple are right in there. They thought they got some sort of exclusions and then it's gone back and forth.

2:26And I think it's about as clear as mud what's going to be going on there. And, you know, listen, again, I have no idea. I'm with Guy last week. It felt like a lot of folks were really excited about the guidance that they gave the trip that Jensen Wang had gone on with Trump to the Middle East. You know what we call that? What do we call that? We call that gensanity. Oh, my gosh. Oh, nice job. I can't believe everything else. I forgot all about that. It's so catchy. So we're not just about acronyms here. We're about, like, nicknames, too. We're going to terms. I mean, we're doing a lot. No, I mean, that is something that I think a lot of people look by some of the issues as it relates to China.

2:56You know, I'm still in the camp. I mean, you can kind of look at a core even. You say, look what's going on here. You can kind of look at Microsoft back towards those all-time highs, despite that we don't see any meaningful pickup in co-pilot and that sort of thing. We saw Azure kind of do better than expected. So I'm just in the camp that sooner or later, you know, I've been saying this for a year, you're going to get a bit of a digestion. But the one thing I just want to say here is that, you know, we talked about this, whether it was going to be from 153 or$200, these stocks can get cut in half.

3:23And it happened in a very short period of time. So there are risks when you're buying into this where sentiment feels absolutely great. And that's one of the reasons why I think it's really important to keep touch or close to these data points in Taiwan Semi, which makes up almost 90 % of NVIDIA's high-end GPUs, if you're hearing it from there, if you're hearing it from there, you're hearing the guidance, you're hearing a new channel, then I guess that's fine. I'm just not a buyer here. I wasn't a buyer. I should have been a buyer at 95. Everyone should have been a buyer at 95, but who knew? Well, that was the digestion, right?

3:50And so, I mean, you said there will be a digestion again, I'm sure, but it's a trillion dollars since that low point. And And what we got the other day from NVIDIA was at least a handful of answers that were really important. We had a China answer, I think more broadly, even not just on earnings. We've had some answer in terms of export restrictions and also, you know, where NVIDIA was really on the other side of the U.S. government. NVIDIA right now seems to be, you know, alongside the U.S. government running around the world cutting sovereign AI deals. We're going to talk a lot more about Meta's deal with Constellation.

4:22But that's just another reaffirmation that the demand out there for AI data center is alive and well and hasn't even altered at all. So I think Blackwell Supply, some of the dynamics, I think, around just what's going on with their next wave of chips has now been answered. There's still some uncertainty. But why would we doubt NVIDIA after they've delivered on everything else? But most importantly, it gets back to valuation because this is a company that's trading 27, 28, 29 times 12 months forward with a Nasdaq that's at 25, 26 times. What would you rather own here? Would you rather own NVIDIA and its growth or the entire index, which people say is also expensive?

5:01Would you rather? Self would you rather? Yeah, what would you rather? But I do own a number of them. Right. So I do own it. I think the demand story being intact was very much, I think, the most important thing, because if we see that, then we'll see the margin improvement as they're able to fulfill that demand. And we saw it again with Dell. Demand story is there. So I'm long. I do agree that this is susceptible to a change in sentiment. It's also very susceptible to China-U.S. relations, I think. Right. I think that's why it sold off a little bit after, even though that great report ran up so much into it.

5:39So I'm staying long. I do think we're still at the earliest stages of AI. And so the demand will continue for a while. I know the stock will peak before demand peaks, but I don't know when that is. All right. Now let's get to Netflix. Shares had been up nearly a percent of their highs of the session, touching a new intraday record. Jeffrey's raising its price target on the stock to$1 ,400 from$1 ,200, forecasting more growth tied to U.S. price hikes and a robust content slate. Both shares up over 36 % year-to-date. Is the stock running into some resistance here? Tim, what do you say? Well, after running like a bat out of hell.

6:16Oh, nice job, Tim. I think we say it all the time here. We said it for the last, by the way, Marvin Lee a day. That comes from Sandy Cannell. That's Mr. Loaf. I didn't know Meat Loaf's real name, even though I should. I think you're at a place here where that's the problem. The problem is nothing to do with the content release and Guy watches all of these. I mean, he's usually games and he's on the adolescence. I remember was one of his big ones. But I think it really is very difficult to give Netflix a hard time, especially when you look at what they're doing with the ad supported models. It seemed to be somewhat recession proof that may as to be seen international growth.

6:53It's about the valuation. And I think at some point that really does matter for a company. that probably no one dislikes, and that might worry me as a trader. Well, Tim, you took the words. Nice. That's so good. No, that is so good. That really is good. That really is good. Again, you want to fight against an evaluation? Well, people have been shooting against it for the last five years, and it's their world. You're waiting for a day, and today was not that day, but a huge volume day, new all-time high, and it closes on the lows. Now, you had that sort of today, but traded half the amount of volume it typically does.

7:27Wait for a day where it trades 15 or 20 million shares and reverses. We haven't seen that. Yeah. So going back the last 15 years, I feel like we've talked about this name an awful lot. Right. And there's been a few folks on this desk who've been buyers on every point. All three of you, by the way. And our main man, Tom Rogers. And, you know, it was Netflix's game taking the words out of my mouth or your mouth. And everyone else has just been kind of, you know, thrown to the side. Right. But the problem that you have here is that, you know, every time you see a dip in the stock, you know, folks just say continue to own it.

7:57And, you know, sooner or later, there will be something fundamental. We go back 15 years, 10 years or whatever. There were fundamental mishaps, right? People like used to sell the stock on price increases, right? But it's proven to be recession proof. So at some point, might there be something that they kind of hit up against? Maybe. And listen, I think you just keep owning it. I don't think you buy it. And I would have said that, you know, a week ago, two weeks ago, two months ago. It's just a really hard name, despite the fact there are a runaway winner, like very few runaway winners that we've seen in technology that have been able to keep that pace over the last kind of 10 years or so.

8:28So what would be the bear case in your view? I guess very accelerated competition from others that really start, which is not happening, right? That would be a case. I mean, this company has managed to remake themselves over and over and over again. And successfully. Successfully. And now, you know, doing much more live sports now. And so they just seem to be everywhere that you want to be ahead of everyone else. Also their balance sheet ahead of everyone else. I've also been thinking that, you know, with a lot of the AI stuff in terms of how would that affect content costs, I have to think they've got to go down dramatically.

9:04That's important for them and everybody, any streamer, any creator of content. That's important. I like everything about it except the price, but I'm willing to live with it. It's so expensive, but it's worth it. However, I have sold calls against it, and that has never been a good trick. That's really interesting what you say about AI and content costs. That is going to be a battleground. That might be the sort of thing that causes some of this A-list talent that's been gravitating towards their original content to kind of go the other way. I mean, this is something that you keep hearing about in Hollywood, but we haven't really been faced with that sort of challenge.

9:37But my only point is it could go either way. What do you mean? So where does that – let's say that those people do it on their own. How do they get on a platform? They go back to a more traditional platform. Like, think of it. Adam Sandler, he's doing this second – There's like a revolt against AI. There could be, and we've seen that before. What I'm saying is who knows if this technology is going to be such a sea change for so many other industries and it's going to put a lot of pressure on a lot of things we haven't even figured out. That might be one of the most important points, one of the most important challenges, I guess.

10:03All right. Let's move on to Boeing. You're hitting a 52-week high. Bernstein naming the stock its best idea in aerospace and defense thanks to accelerating production, attractive fundamentals, and a compelling valuation. Shares are up more than 65 percent from their April lows. Boeing is the B in carbed. Yeah. It is the B in carbed. Of course. Karen. Yes. And so you like the stock. I do like the stock. I did really, really love that giant capital raise. What? They're so ridiculous. I mean, looking good, by the way. That's a great photo. Being carved, whatever that is. I thought it was the A. I thought it was A.

10:38I thought it was aerospace and Boeing was aerospace. No, A is Alibaba. Come on. Come on. Yeah, she plays the game so badly. Harvard. She went to Harvard this one. And the A in Alibaba is throwing her for a little bit. There it is. They put it back up for you. There we go. So I loved that capital raise, that giant capital raise when they did, you know, what, a$20 billion debt and equity. And then it's just about getting deliveries out the door. This is a cash flow story. You can't do it until you start getting deliveries. That's happening. I feel like there has really been a change here. And so we're early on.

11:11They also just did a divested Jepsen. That's about$10.5 billion. A little more help for the balance sheet there. So a lot of things just going. Now it's just execute. That's it. Execute. Well, this is also the B in band. I don't want to steal the B in carb, but this is the B in band. And so, look, I didn't really like Netflix. I like Netflix, and I love Boeing. So, Guy, two out of three ain't back, right? Yeah, we're right back to that. We'll take that. And I love Boeing. And it's interesting how they call it a momentum stock because that's not what you usually hear about Boeing. And if anything, you have that momentum.

11:46I also find it interesting to refer to it in terms of an attractive valuation. This is a company that doesn't make money, hasn't made money, but I know where they're going with this. And it's going to happen quickly. The cash flow flip is going to happen in the second half of 25. That's 735, 737 ramp, excuse me. We absolutely have demand exceeding what they can do on production well into the 2030s is kind of their call. This is a stock that really could actually be a safe pair of hands for a lot of people. So I think it's under-owned. I think the analyst community is just coming around, and we probably need a little more follow-through on cash flow, but no one's expecting any.

12:19That's great news. It's momentum since April, certainly. It's up more than 60 percent from the lows then. It's got more room. Our crack staff in EC, if you go back to February of 2019, the stock was making an all-time high north of 450. That was the first point of a downtrend line that is about to be broken to the upside, which theoretically should get us to the highs we saw a year and a half or so ago, which is 260. So I still think that's in the crosshairs. And if I may for a second, are you familiar with Greg Maddox? Just say yes. Sure. The umpires would give him the benefit of the doubt because he was so great.

12:52So a ball a couple inches off the plate would be called a strike. Not unlike Karen. Could we put the carved back up? The R in carved is URI. I mean, come on. It's rentals. Come on. I mean, come on. That's fantastic. Enough rick your goals for this. Let's get to Constellation Energy here. finishing in the red after being up more than 9 % of the highs of the day. The company is securing a 20-year agreement to supply meta with 1.1 gigawatts of nuclear power starting in 2027. Names like Vistra, Talent Energy, NextEra also getting a boost from the news. For more on what this means for the nuclear energy landscape, let's bring in KeyBank Managing Director and Senior Analyst Sophie Karp.

13:30She has an overweight rating at a$337 price target on Constellation. Sophie, welcome. Good to see you. Good to see you. Thank you for having me. It seems, at least to me, that maybe the deal is a little bit opaque in that we are not really sure if they're getting a premium in this deal in terms of price per megawatt hour from Meta. Yeah, we don't know the details of the deal in terms of the price that's being paid. And I think that's becoming increasingly common for players in the power space to not disclose such details for competitive reasons. I do believe they're getting the premium versus the market price, considering that the press release states the matter is paying for the environmental attributes, such as zero emission nuclear energy.

14:17And usually there wouldn't be any reason to really do a deal without the premium, right? You can always hedge at the power curve if it wasn't the case. So we like the deal. I think what we've seen in the market really is a little bit of a profit taking. The deal was somewhat anticipated, another deal this year. So that's what we're seeing. I think just the fact that the deal came through pretty early in the year just reinforces the thesis that Constellation is really well positioned to monetize its fleet. It is unique. It's getting more valuable intrinsically by the day because it's getting more expensive to build new generation in this country.

14:53And we really like our thesis here. I think the Constellation will continue to do well. Sophie, it's Tim. Thanks for joining us. Deep Seek really knocked a handful of the utility, the power utility, the energy data center plays. This may be more than any other than Vistra. But before all that, people like I'm long the stock and very excited about that Calpine deal. And again, you combine maybe the best nuclear play, at least in terms of scale. You combine the gas assets. I mean, talk about this as a utility. Leave all the AI hype aside and talk about this name from those perspectives. Absolutely.

15:29And the demand for power has been rising before the AI came to the scene. And DeepSeek really did not put any dent into the CapEx budgets for AI data centers as an aside that we have seen so far. And the companies in our space have signaled no slowdown in demand on the inbound interests that they're seeing from large load customers. But the demand for power is definitely rising regardless. And the fact that Constellation has been able to assemble this portfolio of baseload assets, such as nuclear, and load following and peaking assets from Constellation that are positioned in growing markets, in attractive markets, that makes this company very valuable.

16:11And like I said, it's getting more and more difficult to build a new generation in this country. So whoever owns the existing portfolio of these assets, they're intrinsically increasing in value. Like it takes seven years to get a gas turbine right now. Right. You cannot just build a gas plant tomorrow. The repeal of the IRA that's kind of ongoing in Congress, that's going to make it more expensive to build renewable generation. That has been actually the majority of the additions recently. So as it becomes a new nuclear, that's years away, right? The SMRs, something like that, there's something that's years away.

16:45Potentially, like we're looking at the next decade when those are going to be at scale. So in the meantime, there really is very limited new generation coming online. So when you see Constellation and they have this ability to do a little bit of up rates, increase the capacity of the existing plants, they've assembled this great portfolio of assets that can address different pockets of market demand. They have a retail book to match that. This is the company that we like. Sophie, thanks so much for joining us. Appreciate your insights. Sophie Karp of KeyBank. Uranium stocks also got a bid today on the back of this deal.

17:20And what was interesting in terms of noting where the valuation is on Constellation, it is approximately the same on a forward basis as Meta. Not expensive. But look at the price action today. I mean, again, if you think, and Tim is right on this, if you think it's a secular story, you just want to be long in space, I totally get it. But you look at a day like today, we traded up to the prior high. We opened on the highs today, 342-ish, closed on the lows on about three times normal volume. So you might have put in a short-term double top. It doesn't mean this trade is over by any stretch of the imagination, but the formation is a little scary.

17:51You know, it's interesting. If you overlay CEG with Meta, they look like the same chart, right? And so I go back to the fall. I think it was Satya Nadella talking on a podcast that he's no longer constrained as it relates to access to chips, but they're power constrained. So if you talk about where the digestion period comes, we don't see a bunch of use cases materialize as we get into the back half of the year. Or, you know, we might see that digestion phase as far as compute and the need for it. And then it comes back to power, how much access. You could also see overcapacity in the power space, right, if you don't see things materialize.

18:23So I guess I'd rather be long, let's say, a meta than a CEG right here. Except can the capacity be picked up by just increasing use of power in general? Yes. By our government. But I mean, isn't this government making it clear that power is one of their biggest priorities? And I think they're right. I'd rather, though, have acid light than acid heavy, which is meta acid light. Right. OK. Meantime, Elon Musk sounding off on the congressional spending bill in a series of posts on X, calling it a, quote, disgusting abomination. Eamon Javers has got the details on this. Eamon. Yeah, Melissa, if that wasn't bad enough for the White House, disgusting abomination is pretty tough.

19:00But then he followed it up with another tweet in which he effectively threatened to primary Republican members on the Hill who don't vote the way he wants. Here's what he said in the tweet that he put up. He said in November next year, we fire all politicians who betrayed the American people. Now, that post on X was a response to a user on X who was complaining about Republicans on Capitol Hill and the way they've conducted themselves and the way they've prioritized things in the budgeting process. Musk there threatening to fire politicians who don't vote the way he wants. That sets up a political conundrum for this White House, which is trying to get that bill over the hump in the Senate.

19:39Russ Vogt, the Office of Management and Budget Director, was out here on the White House driveway just a short time ago talking to reporters, and he explained the pitch that he's making to Elon Musk and others. Here's what he said. We think the bill is a very good one. We think it's very strong fiscally. nothing's changed from our view of the world. We understand where he's coming from. But if you if you have an accurate baseline that treats taxes the same way it treats spending, this budget is$1.6 trillion in mandatory savings. Now, I asked Russ Vogt if he had made that case to Elon Musk specifically.

20:15And he said, I'm making this case to everyone. He also rejected the premise that he needs to do a lot of cajoling to get this bill across the finish line in the Senate. They are saying here at the White House that they feel confident that they're going to get the bill done despite what Elon Musk just did here this afternoon. All right. Eamon, thank you. Eamon Javers. It's amazing what a few days will do. I mean, it was just sort of the beginning of the week. He was in the Oval Office standing right next to Donald Trump, and here he is calling the big, beautiful bill an abomination. Oh, go ahead.

20:45I was just going to say real quick, he's not necessarily wrong. So love him or hate I mean, I think he's on point with this. Yeah, I mean, and this is totally consistent with what he was there to do. A lot of people didn't really like the approach, but a lot of people were very much in favor of cutting spending and cutting a bunch of groups within the government that really weren't doing anything. Yeah, I guess the broader issue is like, OK, it's one thing for the president to threaten his own party to, you know, to primary folks. I mean, the fact that you have these kind of dueling forces, it is a little difficult for our democracy when you think about that.

21:15And, you know, this is the richest man in the world who has, you know, amazing, amazing levers to pull. If you think of the platform he owns, space and all that sort of XAI, which is growing tremendously, Starlink. I mean, the list goes on and on. It's like take every Bond villain of the last 50 years, mash it together, and this is what you got. And you think I'm being, like, hyperbolic. I'm not, at least the way the Broccoli's think of it. You actually had an interesting take in terms of the impact on his business. He could be winning back some more fans. I'm wondering if you're a Tesla shareholder.

21:44Are you happy with these set of tweets or are you not? Clearly, when he went the other way, it had a noticeable impact on his business. He did, however, say, I'm getting out of the politics game. Sort of something to that effect. Not exactly. This is sort of getting back into the politics game a little bit. But I don't know. It's interesting. Coming up, we are watching CrowdStrike after hours. Shares on the move after reporting results. The details and the numbers in the quarter. And how our traders are handling the cybersecurity name. That's next. Plus, a symbolic vote at Warner Brothers. Shareholders rejecting CEO David Zaslav's pay package.

22:16What it means and what precedent it could set. Don't go anywhere. Fast Money is back in two.