Netflix On The Move After Reporting… And Mideast Energy Infrastructure Damage 4/16/26

16 Apr 2026 · 44 min · 20 chapters

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In short

The episode is about markets and earnings: Wall Street’s tech-led rally (Nasdaq 12 straight up sessions) versus warning signs from inflation, oil volatility, and consumer sensitivity. Panelists debate whether the rebound is momentum/short-covering or a “back-and-fill” before earnings guidance clarifies. They cite inflationary price hikes (Pepsi, PPG) and argue energy infrastructure damage in the Middle East may be underpriced, with restoration competing for equipment/labor and taking longer than markets assume. They also discuss Netflix’s Q1 beat but weak Q2 guidance and Reed Hastings stepping down from the board, plus broader tech/semis/transport moves (Taiwan Semi, AMD, truckers).

Guests

David Zervos (Jeffries chief market strategist; 35-year macro strategist) argues productivity is the core bull driver and supply shocks are temporary; Rich Greenfield (LightShed Partners) says Netflix’s stock fell due to guidance disappointment and investor concern after Hastings’ departure.

Notable examples

oil infrastructure repair costs up to $58B (Reistad), Netflix sports strategy/NFL talks, and transport chart breakouts (J.B. Hunt, Old Dominion, Landstar, Ryder).

Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.

Chapters

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Market Overview and Earnings Report

1:42 to 2:32

Discussion on Wall Street's record highs and implications of recent earnings reports.

“Come to you live from Studio B at the NASDAQ.”

Inflation Concerns and Market Sentiment

2:32 to 3:56

Analyzing inflation risks highlighted by major companies and market reactions.

“You could say that estimates that were for this quarter don't include those pressures.”

Consumer Spending and Market Engagement

3:56 to 4:55

Examination of consumer spending resilience amidst economic uncertainties.

“And the probability of those risks is much lower today than it was a couple of weeks ago.”

Market Trends and Technical Analysis

4:55 to 6:41

Evaluating recent market trends and the potential for pullbacks in stock prices.

“A lot of them might cancel each other out.”

Software Sector Insights

6:41 to 7:39

Discussion on the software sector's performance and investment opportunities.

“What is notable about this run, and we touched on this yesterday, is sort of the notion that people are taking flyers or going into the areas that had been underperforming.”

Challenges in the Technology Sector

7:39 to 8:31

Addressing concerns in the tech sector regarding valuations and market dynamics.

“The one thing I'd say about that, though, is if you look at the hyperscale, look at Microsoft in particular, right?”

Market Rally and Productivity Insights

8:31 to 11:54

Insights on the ongoing market rally and the role of productivity in economic growth.

“And, you know, Microsoft, maybe it's an outlier.”

Productivity and Market Dynamics

14:00 to 20:40

Explore the impact of productivity on market growth and supply shocks.

“And I think there's a lot of things to launch us.”

Netflix Earnings Disappointment

20:40 to 24:33

Analyzing Netflix's earnings call and its implications for investors.

“Streaming service beating Q1 revenue estimates but giving disappointing guidance for the current quarter.”

Netflix Earnings Disappointment

24:38 to 25:04

Analyzing Netflix's earnings call and its implications for investors.

“Choose Power Home Remodeling and remodel how you think about remodeling.”
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Taiwan Semi and Market Reactions

25:04 to 26:00

Discussing Taiwan Semiconductor's performance and the broader semiconductor market.

“So while others are busy talking, we're busy building.”

Taiwan Semi and Market Reactions

26:04 to 28:06

Discussing Taiwan Semiconductor's performance and the broader semiconductor market.

“Welcome back to Fast Money, a trio of semi-headlines catching your eye today.”

Market Concerns and Semiconductor Vulnerabilities

28:06 to 28:55

Discussing the potential vulnerabilities of Taiwan Semiconductor amidst market fluctuations.

“Since he alluded to you and what you might say, what would you say about Taiwan Semi?”

Transport Sector Analysis

30:34 to 33:30

Analyzing the performance and future of the transport sector and trucking industry.

“Transport's trucking to new record highs today.”

Netflix Conference Call Insights

33:30 to 37:18

Rich Greenfield shares insights on Netflix's recent performance and stock movements.

“Coming up, Netflix's conference call just wrapping up.”

Future Growth and Potential Acquisitions for Netflix

37:18 to 40:04

Discussing Netflix's potential for growth and future acquisition strategies.

“Now, I'm with you, by the way, but I'm just curious as to what you think.”

Impact of Middle East Energy Infrastructure Damage

40:04 to 42:00

Examining the extensive damage to Middle East energy infrastructure and its market implications.

“Yeah, everything he makes, all the points he makes make great sense.”

Oil and Gas Sector Damage Estimates

42:00 to 44:10

Learn about the extensive damage to oil and gas facilities in the region and its economic implications.

“The price tag is highest for downstream refining and petrochem assets, given their complexity.”

Dairy Queen's AI Order Revolution

44:10 to 46:20

Discover how Dairy Queen is integrating AI to enhance drive-thru ordering and its impact.

“How Dairy Queen is changing the way it takes orders and what it means for costs and for jobs.”

Final Trades and Wrap-Up

46:20 to 47:00

Hear the final trades from the Fast Money team and reflections on the episode.

“Final trade time, Stuart Kaiser of Citi.”
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Transcript

Automatic transcript. May contain errors.

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1:28Tim Seymour:flag on inflation. Are transports about to start trucking even higher? And crude oil still trading in the mid-90s, but are markets underestimating the supply disruption from the straighter poor moves? A look at the real risks to energy infrastructure. That's coming up. I'm Melissa Lee. Come to you live from Studio B at the NASDAQ. On the desk tonight, Carter Braxton Worth, Dan Nathan, Guy Adami, and Stu Kaiser, head of equity trading strategy at Citigroup. Well, Netflix down big after reporting Q1 earnings. We'll get details on that move in just a moment. But we start with fresh record highs on Wall Street as the S &P 500 and Nasdaq build on their recent momentum.

2:02Tim Seymour:The tech heavy index posting 12 straight days of gains. That is its longest winning streak since July 2009. One more up day would be its best run since 1992. But there may be some warning signs creeping into view in its earnings report before the bell. Pepsi cautioned that the war in the Middle East has made the global economy volatile and uncertain. And yesterday, paint manufacturer PPG said it would hike global prices by as much as 20 percent across the board due to disruptions in its supply chain. So should investors be on high alert for inflationary pressures to come? You could say that estimates that were for this quarter don't include those pressures.

2:39Tim Seymour:And we're going to listen to the forward guidance. So a lot's going to happen in the next couple of weeks.

2:44Melissa Lee:I agree 100 percent. Yes, they should. Inflation is a problem. And what you heard from Pepsi and PPG raising prices does nothing to change my mind. about that. And I think the latest data suggests, you know what, it's a lot stickier than people thought. Here's the rub. The bond market can sell off on the back of that. I think that it will. I don't think the equity market at this point really seems to care. The equity market is basically discounting any of these bad news that we talk about and say, you know what, earnings growth is robust enough. We've learned how to deal with these things before, and we're going to sort of muddle through it again.

3:15Melissa Lee:And that's why we're here. And I want to be crystal clear. I have not been and I am not bullish, but I understand the price action and what we're seeing now looks hauntingly familiar to what we saw a year ago in April.

3:26Tim Seymour:Are we too complacent at this point, Stu? Look, I think parts of the market are parts of the market. And I would say the two risk dominoes that haven't fallen yet is one oil volatility while it's come down is still double what we averaged last year. And secondarily, and I think it relates to Pepsi a bit as well as consumer durable stocks and household product stocks are still down more than double digits and they have not bounced. And I think that speaks to the sort of ongoing inflation risk. So risk at large does feel maybe a little bit complacent, but I just, I really don't disagree with it.

3:55Any risk you could highlight, we knew about two or three weeks ago. And the probability of those risks is much lower today than it was a couple of weeks ago. And I think that's what's getting people more engaged in the markets.

4:05Melissa Lee:Yeah, and I'd say the risk, I guess the consumer spending, we just heard from all the bank CEOs, they didn't seem too bothered. I mean, they just kind of, you know, said the consumer's in good shape, resilient. We've heard that again and again over the last few years or so. But, you know, the cumulative nature of what we've talked about, these supply chain disruptions that have been going on now for years, obviously going back to COVID. But a year ago when we kind of, you know, had that little tirade as it relates to tariffs, I mean, they really haven't changed a whole heck of a lot. Right. So inflation readings, they've been here.

4:30Melissa Lee:They've been there, you know, 10th of point. I mean, it doesn't really matter. I mean, this is going to be a situation where if gas at the pump stays where it is, if input costs are higher for a lot of these staple companies and the like. We've already seen some weakness in consumer discretionary. You know, the market back at these highs, what is it discounting now? I guess that is the sort of question. But, you know, we get through earnings season. As you said, Mel, I mean, we're going to get a lot of data points. And you know what? A lot of them might cancel each other out. We might be sitting here at 7 ,000 in a month from now.

4:58Melissa Lee:Is that what you think? You know, listen, I think Guy and I just had a great conversation with Mike Wilson, right, the chief equity strategist of Morgan Stanley. And, you know, his view was like, OK, not discounting a whole heck of a lot. Could we come in and back and fill a little bit? There is a gap. I'm sure my main man Carter is going to speak to that a little bit. I mean, we're not just going to rip from here, you know, that sort of thing. So could we see it right around here, 6 ,900, 7 ,100? Sure.

5:22Tim Seymour:I mean, we should theoretically rest or retest, Carter. In principle. But here's a little bit something that's uncomfortable for, and you started the show with it about 12 sessions in a row, uncomfortable people like myself. It's been a fairly prominent bear period where over the past six months the median stock has lost about 25%, 27 % of its value. But this ricochet is so violent, we now know for the Nasdaq 100, which is the leading light, right, it's up 12 sessions in a row. That's only happened about 11 times in the history of the data going back to the early 1980s. And the index is higher every single time, three, six months, 12 months out.

5:55Doesn't mean you can't get that kind of pullback as you back and fill out the high. But there's an expression, nothing succeeds like success. This is the thing that draws people in, makes them encouraged. right or wrong. It's been a lot of short covering, as we know, CTAs in particular. So the momentum is a powerful thing. And if you look at the other instance where it's come from, it happens after a prominent sell-off, that kind of thing from a COVID low, right, or from a tariff low, or from a 1990s recession low, or it happens towards the end of a great run. It happened in 86, where you've got some periods, and in early 87, where you're going up day after day.

6:35It feels as though it's going to follow through, meaning we're going to, you know, whether we back and feel or not, that we will move higher.

6:40Tim Seymour:Huh. What is notable about this run, and we touched on this yesterday, is sort of the notion that people are taking flyers or going into the areas that had been underperforming. I mean, within the Mag 7, it's not just the Mag 7 doing well. It is, in particular, the Microsofts, Tesla catching up, IGV continues today, AMD and Intel, huge runs, maybe breakouts at this point.

7:02Melissa Lee:Let's drill down on software a little bit because maybe three or four weeks ago we were a tad early. But, you know, it's not like they got crushed over this period of time. And I do think there's an inflection point coming here in software. Now, I want to be clear again. I thought that a long time before as well that was wrong. But recently you see some things that actually somewhat encouraging here. And it feels as though all the news that we've been talking about is more than now discounted into these names. And anything on the margins positive for Microsoft or Palo Alto or Oracle, I think these things move.

7:34Melissa Lee:And I think you can buy all the names into the earnings releases in a couple of weeks. Yeah. The one thing I'd say about that, though, is if you look at the hyperscale, look at Microsoft in particular, right? The rally that it's had over the last week and a half. I mean, this stock couldn't get out of its own way. It hadn't seen an uptick, I want to say, in like three months or something like that. So this is purely technical, the way the stock bounces. The higher it runs into that print, I mean, there's a lot of things that have been going on for the last three, six, nine months. in this story.

7:59Melissa Lee:This started to roll over long before the NASDAQ did, long before the war was here. And so it was like, OK, was CapEx being rewarded the bigger that you spend, the more contracts that you have, the bigger uptake of Office 365, that sort of thing. But a new concern has come in, like the cash flow situation, right? How are you financing this sort of stuff? And we're seeing these neoclouds, they are raising money at like junk levels, junk levels. These are companies that have negative gross margins, the unit economics do not work, and they're the ones sopping up all this kind of excess capacity. So I just I still think there's some problems there.

8:32Melissa Lee:And, you know, Microsoft, maybe it's an outlier. Maybe it's just a reflexive sort of situation. But to me, after these runs, I'm not buying a Microsoft. I know there's a gap above there, but I'm just not buying that.

8:41Tim Seymour:We're going to get into the debt, but there's a huge appetite for that junk debt, by the way.

8:45Melissa Lee:I mean, three times oversubscribed the one that we're looking at. But I mean, it's always all of this is such a one, it's a very difficult proposition to try to get it right more than wrong. But to the how terrible valuation. I mean, to think about micros going from$350 a year ago to$550, back to$350, now bouncing just in a matter of hours of$350,$450. Or Intel, what you cited, the stock has gone from$40 to$68 in the matter of six weeks. The price target on Wall Street is$52. It's now trading at$68. Just days ago, when the stock was at$40, the$52 looked like a reasonable price target for a bunch of educated analysts.

9:17Now they have$52, and now it's$68. Now what do you do? Messy, right? And that's the nature of a highly volatile moment, you know, macro-related or whatnot. The real question ultimately from here is this ricochet, which is incredible, whether it's Intel or Microsoft at the low, as well as the continuation of those that never stalled, the SanDisk. Are we cumulatively in a position to rest and back and fill, what you cited, or is it just run away? It has some rest punchable, but you have to acknowledge the momentum is the most recognized factor as a success factor of anything. This momentum has a lot of power to it.

9:51Tim Seymour:Yeah. I would just say I agree with the momentum point, but I would say that if you look at most momentum trades now, capital goods, energy and utilities are actually the momentum stocks now. It's not, you know, tech in the way it has been. And I think, look, you know, maybe not as bullish around the table, I think, as most of the clients we talk to are. I mean, I think people are expecting this to blow through the top.

10:09Melissa Lee:Do you watch the shows, Stu? I do. OK, that would be surprising if you thought we were as bullish as your clients. No, I mean, I think people are talking 7 ,200, 7 ,300, 7 ,400. 7 ,400.

10:19Tim Seymour:I mean, the bullish folks are. And the only thing I would say about earnings to be careful about is this has not lasted long enough to really impact earnings. If you go back to last year at this time, two-thirds of companies did not update guidance. They basically said this is too uncertain to do. So we might walk in, get prints that are in line to slightly better because you haven't had an impact, and really not get as much information on the guidance as we were hoping to get. So it's going to be interesting to have the walkers. The absence of information is a good thing in this context? When momentum's on your side.

10:48You know what the ultimate absolute iteration is? When a company has no profits and no earnings, that's when the multiple is the highest. That's of course it is.

10:56Tim Seymour:Do you think the market is, I mean, in terms of base case scenarios, I mean, are we factoring the possibility that oil stays where it is now, that commodity prices stay, that there's a longer period of higher prices, maybe not as high as we've seen during the conflict, but higher certainly than when the conflict started. Just because of the supply disruptions, things are taken offline. I mean, there's an aluminum, two aluminum sites in the Middle East offline can't restart for like a year. That's what the Alcoa CEO just told us.

11:24Melissa Lee:So my yes. And in my opinion, would the answer your question? No, I don't think the market is pricing in a prolonged period of time where energy prices are trading anywhere remotely close to we are now. I think there's a belief that this is going to get reconciled in a couple of different ways. And oil is going to sort of sift back down into the mid 70s. So people are looking past it. I am not one of those people. I think it's problematic. I think it's a lot more deep-rooted than the market has taken into consideration. But the market is in right now. You know what? We'll deal with that if and when.

11:52Melissa Lee:And they've been right so far. Yeah. Last thing on the earnings front. And again, you know, it seems like folks are really bullish on a quarter-over-quarter basis as we think about expected year-over-year earnings growth. But you think about the move in the dollar over the last few weeks. You think about the move, you know, in yields. We've had like 15 basis points lower in the 10-year. And, you know, if you do have crude, there's some sort of, you know, kumbaya sort of situation. You're back below 80, maybe on your way to like the mid-70s. That is probably a big tailwind for equity. So the idea of fading it here, given everything that you've said about momentum, you know, this is – wouldn't you say this is kind of a difficult level?

12:24Melissa Lee:You get back to that prior high sort of thing. So like a back and fill in the stock market makes a little sense. The idea is that you typically, when having lost capital and returned to the point where the losses are now gone, you contend with that fact. Supply comes in from above, people who are breaking even. And then people who just, dumb luck or brilliance, bought at the low 10 days ago. They have a nice trade on their hand, 10%, 12%, 50%, and they exit. So you contend with. All right.

12:49Tim Seymour:Our next guest says there's a lot of juice left in this market rally. David Zervos is chief market strategist at Jeffries. And as CNBC contributor, David, it's always great to see you, especially on set. Great to be here. You have been a staunch bull, and you've been right. Where do we go from here, though? So I've just tried to keep out of the geopolitics because I don't think we on Wall Street collectively are really very good at it. So and I think we like to make a lot of mountains out of molehills and try to pretend like we're armchair geopolitical experts and we get ourselves pretty tripped up.

13:20But I think there's another thing, Melissa. I think the market gets very emotional. There's a lot of politics that's dividing the country. There's a lot of emotion that's dividing the country. And people are letting that affect their fiduciary responsibilities. I think they let them that happen last time with tariffs. They've let it happen again. And you're sort of seeing a market that just it's sort of it has a contingent that wants to root for failure of U.S. administration policies. And people get really caught up in that and they start selling and they start hedging and they start doing silly things.

13:51And and then it turns out that that's not really the right thing to do. We shouldn't let our emotions get in the way of our fiduciary responsibilities. And we're sort of back at that square one where we were kind of last May before we launched significantly higher. And I think there's a lot of things to launch us. I think productivity is the biggest story. That's really the driver here. Maybe there's some Fed at the later later part of the year once we resolve the sort of Kevin J conundrum that we're going to try to figure out over the next few months. But leaving the Fed aside, I just think we have a real productivity story that's just super exciting for capital, super exciting for earnings, super exciting for growth.

14:28And I'm just I'm pretty pumped up on that going into the end of the year as a macro guy.

14:34Tim Seymour:I get what you're saying in terms of not, you know, there's no place for politics here. There's certainly no place for emotions in trading. That's for sure. At the same time, in order to create the base case scenario for stocks or the context in which this rally will happen, you sort of have to take a leap and be that geopolitical analyst when it comes at least to some of these supply shocks that we've seen in the Middle East in terms of assumptions that you have to make about the Strait of Hormuz, assumptions that you have to make about certain facilities that were struck by missiles, drones, et cetera, coming back online.

15:04Tim Seymour:Is it your base case scenario that all of this returns to normal pretty quickly? Well, you know, I guess I'm a student of supply shocks, and I've looked at all of these supply shocks going back into the 70s. And people, when this initially happened, were like, oh, we're going back to 1973, 1974, we're going back to 79. It hasn't happened. By the way, we've heard that story for decades, and it hasn't happened with a lot of supply shocks that were significantly worse than this in terms of the sustained strength of oil and the curve. Remember, the forward curve in oil is still pricing a pretty significant drop off as we get in toward the end of this year.

15:42So I think I'm just looking at our ability to withstand these negative supply shocks, what we did in the 2000s, the 2010s and the 2020s. We've had a lot of them. We kind of get through them. It's just they pass. And the market figures it out. Supply comes online. Shale picks up. Other people come in. we figure it out. And I think that's more or less as strategic as I'm going to get with the geopolitics. The idea that we go back to the 70s has just been such a faulty idea on so many levels for me in my career of 35 years on Wall Street of people telling me we were going to go back to the 70s and the bond market was going to lose its luster and the credibility of the Fed was going to go and the credibility of the dollar was going to go.

16:26It's a great headline and it sells. People put it out there all the time. It just doesn't happen. So I'm kind of betting on the temporary nature of this negative supply shock. And I feel pretty good today about that. It doesn't always feel good. And there were parts of this past month or so that it didn't feel great. Just like the negative supply shock that we got on terms of trade when we had to think about what was going to happen with all the tariffs and how we were going to come back from that. That's another negative supply shock in an economic model.

16:54Melissa Lee:All right. So negative supply shock. Let's fast forward two, three months or something like that. We have Kevin Warsh, let's say he's a Fed chair. What does he do with yields? Let's just say because of this near-term uncertainty, you're seeing inflationary pressures that kind of stick around, but a lot of folks are going to say it's transitory, right? We're going to get right back to it. What does Kevin Warsh do when, and do you assume that the president's going to be leaning on him to lower interest rates? I mean, I think that's a given. I mean, I would assume that they've had those discussions and the discussion was somewhat favorable to lower interest rates.

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17:25Kevin did, you know, carve out some turf in that debate, if you've listened to him speak, going into this. And he hasn't been that judicious with his speeches, probably a good thing in many ways. But he's been talking about how the balance sheet can come down and that would open up an avenue for lower rates. You could have a more restrictive balance sheet, not get caught up in this ample liquidity storyline, let that kind of die off a little bit more, and that opens up some room to bring rates lower. I think that debate is going to actually pick up a lot of steam. You saw Stephen Myron got a paper out on that or put a paper out on it.

17:59Then Lori Logan came out with a paper that said, I don't believe what you guys are saying. So there'll be a battle, and there will be. But I think that balance sheet rate trade-off, which we've talked about on this show a number of times over the years, and I think it's an important sort of monetary policy discussion, I think that's the avenue that Kevin will pursue to kind of keep the lower rate mantra going and at least be seen by the president as someone who's pushing that mantra, even if inflation is staying a little bit sticky at the headline level. If it's stickier at the core, we get into more problems.

18:36But most of the core storyline has been pretty good and kind of improving. So I think he's got that to work with and he can kind of talk temporary And he can use this sort of, you know, this little game of, you know, hide the ball under the cup thing and talk about effectively the balance sheet as a way to bring bring rates lower. So I think that's where you're going to see the debate going. I'm not as excited as I was at the beginning of the year about sort of two, three or even four rate cuts. I think we're probably still talking in the one to two region. But again, I don't think we need them to be talking about a really bullish environment for returns on capital.

19:17I think we've just got a great productivity story. We've been living it for years now, three years now of strong growth. The unemployment rate's been rising while we've had strong growth for three years. We're getting more output per hour, more output per worker. It's just a great story for capital. And so I don't want to lose sight of that fundamental. And then if I get the rate kicker on the side and it all comes together and the inflation story is a little subdued, then happy days. We'll have another 20 percent year. Maybe we only get a 10 to 12 percent year if we don't get the rate kicker.

19:48But, hey, I'm kind of feeling like we're going to get double digits either way. I'm just debating whether it's going to be a 10 and change or a 20.

19:56Tim Seymour:David, always good to see you. Great to be here. David Zervos of Jeffries. I'm curious, Stu, the clients you speak, you mentioned 7 ,400. What is that scenario? What is the commodity price scenario? What is the inflation scenario? What is the Fed rate cut scenario? Honestly, I don't think Fed rate cuts play all that much into that bullish view. I think it's much more driven on oil prices coming down. Positioning is quite light. Valuation has become a non-headwind. For once, we've actually grown into our valuation, right? So maybe the first time of my career, I could say we actually grew into valuation.

20:25But I think it just has a lot to do, frankly, with positioning at this point. I mean, in our view, generally, if we cut rates four times this year, it's bad for equities because I think you would need a payroll environment that would be kind of unfriendly in that case.

20:38Tim Seymour:Let's get to Netflix now. Shares are tanking in the after-hours session. Streaming service beating Q1 revenue estimates but giving disappointing guidance for the current quarter. Co-founder Reed Hastings also saying he will not seek re-election to the company's board. Mackenzie Sagalos has got the details here. Hey, Mac. Hey, Mel. Yes, those shares plunging now nearly 9 % after hours despite a nearly 50-cent beat on the bottom line and coming in ahead of the street on revenue. You said it, the streaming giant missed on second quarter guidance and left its full year revenue guide unchanged. Investors may also be concerned about future leadership at the company after co-founder Reed Hastings announced that he would step down from the board.

21:13The earnings call underway now not doing much to inspire confidence either. Netflix's other co-founder, Ted Sarandos, brushing off the loss of the Warner Brothers Discovery deal, saying the company is confident in its core business as is. He added that they're planning to invest both organically and opportunistically with M &A while maintaining strong liquidity and returning excess cash to shareholders through share repurchases, something that they remember put on pause when that WBD deal was still on deck. Sarandos also singling out sports as an important piece of its live strategies. The company looks forward, including expanding its relationship with the NFL and Netflix saying that those discussions are ongoing right now.

21:54Mel?

21:55Tim Seymour:All right, Mac. Thanks. Mackenzie Segalos on Netflix, again, as Mac had said, the shares are down 9 percent. Pretty steady in the after-hour session in terms of the reaction to the earnings and how it's trading as the conference call goes on. Interesting what she said about sports, because that implies that they're going to be—it's a bidding war for these sports rights. That is just going to be a continuous drain into an area where it's very competitive. They're going to have to spend a lot of money, and it's not like you build your library by bidding on live sports.

22:24Melissa Lee:They've been tactical around that. I think they've done a good job to give them the benefit of the doubt. Sure. And I thought the quarter, we talked about it on your great show. They call that the CBOT. Closing Bell Overtime. Which I just. With Mike Santoli. Which I enjoyed being part of that show. Thank you for having me. And I thought the quarter was fine. Look at the metrics of the quarter. I think they were very good. The concern was the guide for the second quarter, which I think they're sandbagging, but they still guided a 13.5 % revenue growth. And the fact that Reed Hastings stepped down.

22:52Melissa Lee:And as Mike mentioned, the fact that the stocks had a big run. Dan was right last night over the last week to be cautious going into earnings. I was not. I thought it would continue to go higher. But I think if you look at the numbers and look, they still seemingly are in the pole position. I think it's a sandbag in terms of the guy. And I think you buy the stock. They've done a really nice job using those sports, right, to get subscribers. And they're not giving us subscriber numbers anymore. Maybe you can back into it a little bit. And I think the concern, obviously, was that operating margin where it's not bad.

23:18Melissa Lee:I mean, it just wasn't as high as the street fell. And this quarter was a great quarter. I mean, the quarter that they put up is huge EPS upside. So to Guy's point, it might be a little bit of sandbagging, 45 percent from those lows up into the print. I just want to make one other point, though. I mean, this is a stock from the highs in 21 to the lows in 22 that sold up 70 percent. OK, so the notion when this thing had just been down 45 percent or so that couldn't continue to go. And if this company was to put up, you know, miss this lower guidance and we're looking at this in three months. I mean, these are the sorts of stories where you can start looking past and say, you know what, maybe AI is not part of this story.

23:53Melissa Lee:And I know they've been using machine learning and they've been doing recommendations and stuff. That's been their secret sauce ever since they got away from the DVDs. But maybe it's one of those stories that they're not using this technology as well. And maybe there will be some disruption. So, again, I don't find it particularly interesting down 10 percent right here.

24:08Tim Seymour:All right. We'll keep you posted on Netflix coming up. We are keeping an eye on Netflix, of course, dialed into the conference call. We'll bring you the headlines as we get them. Plus, analysts' reaction to streaming giants, the streaming giants' quarters, that's ahead. Speaking of earnings, shares of Taiwan Semi is dropping despite the top and bottom line beat. The details behind that move and what it says about the state of the semi-space do not go anywhere. That's when he's back in two.

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25:33Tim Seymour:LinkedIn is pretty amazing at helping you grow your small business. We cannot make your email response time faster. We can help you sell, market, and hire in one place. We cannot help you find space for your three desk drinks. Why do you have three? And while we can't help you find the perfect volume for your presentation video, LinkedIn can help you find the perfect audience for your business. Grow your small business on LinkedIn. Learn more at linkedin.com slash smallbusiness. Welcome back to Fast Money, a trio of semi-headlines catching your eye today. Shares of Taiwan Semi dropping 3 % despite posting a quarterly earnings and revenue beat.

26:13Tim Seymour:The AI chipmaker saying profit surged 58%. Meantime, CoreWeave inking a$6 billion cloud deal, announcing$1 billion in new funding. And AMD surging another 8%. The stock is now up 12 sessions in a row. That's its longest winning streak since 2005. It is up 41 % in the past month. And Dan, you alluded to the Corweave debt raise.

26:37Melissa Lee:I need to do a better job reading that rundown. You know, the thing that they send us and tell us what we're going to talk about. But it was like a little tease. You gave me a little bit of the evil eye. Yeah, I know it was. You know, this is one of those ones where look at what Corweave did. I mean, this stock, off of its recent lows, I think it's up like 70 % or something. And, you know, we just saw what happened in Allbirds and this, that. There are meme stocks. There are big meme stocks out there. And I know we don't talk about them.

26:57Tim Seymour:You're saying Corweave is a meme stock.

26:58Melissa Lee:Oh, yeah. I mean, this is a company that, like, horrible, like, this is not good performance on a relative. You know what I mean? Like, yes.

27:05Tim Seymour:They just sold a bunch, like, more than$2 billion in debt at a price of$0.102 on the dollar.

27:13Melissa Lee:More than last week. Have a ball. I mean, like, but my point is, like, sooner or later, there will be a major digestion period. And these stocks, like we just saw, are going to front run it. And the first ones that are going to get killed, in my opinion, are going to be these neoclouds. So, again, you're buying the debt. You know, it's junk debt. You might see it trading much worse than 102. You know what I mean? If things start getting a little strained. But I'm not a debt trader. Can we go to Taiwan Semi? Because the quarter you just said, I mean, revenue was up 31.5 % year over year. I think net income almost 50%.

27:46Melissa Lee:Now, Carter will point out that the stock made its all-time high. I think in February, traded off. We recently traded. Didn't get back to that prior high, but we made a run at it. Now we're selling off. What is this trying to tell you? I don't know, but I would submit that maybe Taiwan Semi is sniffing out something in terms of the President Trump, President Xi meeting a month from now. And if there are any concerns in terms of what's going to happen with Taiwan as a chip in this whole game, that's why Taiwan Semi could be vulnerable.

28:13Tim Seymour:Since he alluded to you and what you might say, what would you say about Taiwan Semi? Well, it brings up the bigger subject. It's the one area of the market where the dream is alive and never was filtered, the Semi's, right? So we've not seen any trouble. They did check back substantially, you know, 15 % and 20 % moves and whatnot with the markets, 10 % self. But the ability to recoup those highs is impressive. If and as the SOX trade ends, which ultimately, look what happened to software, that will be something that will hurt the market in a more substantial way than almost anything. Coming up, the chart master will hit the transport technicals, where he sees the planes, trains, and automobiles heading after their already record run.

28:51Tim Seymour:You're watching Fast Money Live from the NASDAQ Market Site in Times Square. Back right after this.

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30:34Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. Transport's trucking to new record highs today. The index now up 25 % on the year. It is up 17 % just this month. But is the trade about to shift into even higher gear? Carter, what do you say? Well, I think there's more to go. Let's look at it. First, what we know, of course, is that transports, and you'll see a comparative chart here, are way ahead of the sector of which they're in, industrials, which in turn, industrials are leading the market. So a subset within a sector within the whole. Let's move forward and take a look at some charts that relate to the aggregate and then some individual stocks.

31:07Truckers have seemed the most interesting. So we have a very well-defined setup, of course, a nice uptrend off the low. We've bounced to the penny off the trend line. And we have just now broken out. But this setup you're going to see is also the same setup for several truckers. So if we go forward, let's look. Here's J.B. Hunt. And we really have the same thing, right, where we have this prospects and just now starting to take out those highs. Let's look at the next trucker. You'll find the same circumstance, Old Dominion. Again here, this is the setup. This is the prospective breakout moment, and we like it long.

31:45let's do another one. Two more to go. Then we've got Landstar. Has been a laggard, but it has all the elements, right, of a bearish to bullish reversal, but then here again, this setup for the perspective move higher. And then finally, Rider, symbol R, one more time, playing for the presumptive breakout. And you'll note that truckers, whereas rails have lagged, right, UNP, NSC, and so forth, This is an area that looks like it's just about to launch, going the way of the industrials and going the way of transports in particular.

32:24Tim Seymour:Carter's going to make his way back to the gas. As he should. Do the fundamentals line up with this? Because theoretically they're hit by higher fuel prices in a big way. But they could pass that on in theory.

32:35Melissa Lee:Fair enough. Now, as you mentioned, so this is the use, the transports, Union Pacific, Uber, UAL, UPS. and their FedEx has obviously made its way into the top three because of the performance. But to your point, that's been mitigated by some of the stock moves. I mean, look at what's going on in some of these rail names. It's held in there on the back of Uber and on the back of FedEx, which I still think have some room to the upside. So if you like Uber at 18 percent of this ETF, I'm with Carter on this one. I think the IYT can continue to go higher.

33:06Tim Seymour:Avis, though, is part of the transports as well. And that's sort of distorting. Well, it's got bonkers. That's what's caused a little bit of that, right? And it's also the odd thing. Of course, it's a price-weighted index versus market caps. So you can have a small thing like JetBlue have one one-hundredth the value of a rail in terms of influencing on the index. But either way, it is making a new high. And it did it before the S &P did it. Oh, interesting. All right. Coming up, Netflix's conference call just wrapping up. LightShed Partners, Rich Greenfield, will join us and dig into all the headlines moving the stock.

33:36Tim Seymour:That's when Fast Money returns.

33:44Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. A couple of movers catching our eye today. Charles Schwab dropping nearly 8 percent after missing revenues this morning. The brokerage also taking a hard look at launching prediction markets. Shares of Dell jumping 9 percent today, hitting a fresh all-time high. Goldman Sachs upping its price target from 195 to 215, citing increased confidence in Dell's ability to manage through supply chain constraints. The stock is at more than 53 percent this year already. Let's get another check on Netflix. Shares are still down about 9 percent. The conference call just wrapped.

34:14Tim Seymour:LightShed Partners Rich Greenfield was on the call. He joins us now. Rich, great to have you with us. Thanks for having me. What was your take on the quarter? And why do you think the stock is down 9 percent still? Look, I think the reality is investors were hoping for, you know, a raise in guidance or an acceleration, maybe in better margins, it was largely as expected. And I think the stock had rallied, obviously, a lot off the bottom from, you know, during the pursuit of WBD. And then you have the obvious, you know, Melissa, Reed Hastings leaving, right? Like, yes, he was no longer CEO, but he was on the board.

34:52I think Ted Sarandos at the end of the call, you know, said Reed was sort of planning to be on the board for 10 years. And, you know, he's gone. And, you know, I think, you know, like part of that is, you know, I think investors are sort of getting their hands around like, you know, they were very clear on the call. He didn't leave because he disagreed with the WBD acquisition attempt. He's just leaving to do other things and leaving it in the hands of his two CEOs. But there is no doubt that that is spooking investors. And I think it's going to take time for them to process Reed being gone and then believing that the current management team can continue to grow revenues, you know, at this type of rate.

35:32Because I think there is a fear that it's slowing down towards 10 percent and then 8 percent and then 6 percent. Can they continue to grow double digits? We believe they can. But there is definitely investor fear of what growth looks like ahead.

35:45Tim Seymour:I'm just curious, Rich, because as I understand it, the price increases were expected later on in the year. They came a little bit earlier than what many on the street had expected. Were those price increases included in consensus guidance? They were. There's no doubt. They don't give you timing of when. They don't tell you when they're going to raise price. So, you know, there was a fear. I'll tell you, Melissa, you know, if you go back two months during the Warner Brothers process, I think the number one question we were getting from investors was, could they raise price during an acquisition attempt?

36:20You know, just from a political standpoint, could you be out there raising price? And so I think, you know, relative to where the expectation was in sort of the January, February, this is certainly earlier than people expected. But, you know, again, it may have always been planned for now. They don't obviously disclose it. And again, it isn't happening now. It rolls out over the course of Q2. So it's just announced now, but it flows in over the course of the quarter, which is why revenue growth actually slows down in Q2. And I actually think you're going to see an acceleration in revenue growth in the back half of the year.

36:53Melissa Lee:All right. So, Rich, that's smart to market because it was June of last year that there were stock was trading all time high, reported a quarter. There were some things to be concerned about. Tom Rogers sat on this desk. And for the first time, in my recollection, he was concerned. I think you were as well. So here we are, some$38 from those all-time highs. Is it time for a re-rating? Because they enjoyed a premium multiple prior to June of last year. Now, I'm with you, by the way, but I'm just curious as to what you think. Look, if you can grow revenues in the low to mid-teens, let's just say this thing can grow revenues towards the mid-teens over the next several years and grow earnings at 20 percent plus, this thing is going to continue to command a premium multiple.

37:35And they're gushing cash. I mean, this thing is gushing cash. And I think, you know, the reality is they're actually having this type of growth and performance. And it's not like there's been a breakout hit like they haven't had a K-pop Demon Hunters or Squid Games. Like, you know, it seems like it happens. I don't want to say once every 12 to 18 months. There's something that sort of breaks out on Netflix, but it does feel sort of serendipitous, doesn't it? Like you can't predict it, but they keep having those moments over the course of the last decade. I can't tell you when it's going to happen, but they're seeing very solid growth even without it.

38:12And my guess is at some point over the course of the next year, there is that sort of accelerant event that happens. But again, I think it's going to command a premium multiple until they actually can't sustain this type of revenue growth.

38:25Tim Seymour:Do you think that there's a possibility that they I mean, Sarandos did mention opportunistic M &A, and obviously they did display discipline by walking away from WBD to some extent. And so is there another target out there? I mean, is there something else? I think it's an excellent question, Melissa. I think as currently constructed, I don't think so. But, you know, think about what David Zaslav did. He was really smart in deciding to separate the company. Obviously, in the end, somebody bought the entire company, but he separated the company into two pieces. One that was far more attractive, you know, is, you know, if you think about what could happen in the years ahead, would Brian Roberts at Comcast, your parent company, ever separate out the studio and streaming assets?

39:11You know, we've argued pretty publicly that Josh DeMauro, now that he's starting off at Disney, should break off ABC and ESPN and leave studio and theme parks and streaming in a standalone entity. So my guess is given how much is changing in the media world, you know, you're looking at potentially more NFL games going over to YouTube. You're looking at, you know, the the the continued drumbeat of the march towards streaming. The Gen. AI world is obviously going to alter media in many, many ways over the next five plus years. I think there's going to be assets that free up. Obviously, Warner was a unique opportunity.

39:47But my guess is that's not the last opportunity to buy something that Netflix is going to get that might fit that unique asset over the course of the next five plus years. And the good news is the balance sheet is exceptionally strong. I mean, they're going to generate, you know, 15 billion dollars of cash.

40:03Tim Seymour:Right. Rich, great to get your take. Thank you. Thanks. Rich Greenfield of Lightshed. What do you make of Netflix here?

40:10Melissa Lee:Yeah, everything he makes, all the points he makes make great sense. And I think the cash generation is a big one. I mean, you brought up the bidding for sports rights, that sort of thing. I think that there's probably a story here where maybe he just used the K-pop example and the serendipitous or whatever. Maybe there's something out there with cheaper content as it relates to AI. I know that a lot of Hollywood is up in arms about the potential for that sort of thing. But there could be a thing where the price increases, drops down, it's margin, right? And then you have some sort of cheaper content creation that actually allows you to bid for sports rights.

40:42Melissa Lee:So there are a lot of things you can see that could really go right for this story in the next year or two. How's the chart look? Well, maybe I'll just reiterate. Mike and I had an old school options action on Friday. Sure. Nice. Thanks for the look. That's cool. Whatever. And it was fade Netflix into this print. And here we are. We're pleased with that.

41:01Tim Seymour:Yep. Down 9 percent. Coming up, oil prices may be off their post-war highs, but are markets appreciating the real impact of the meat-ease war? We'll take a look at the state of infrastructure, what it means for prices here at home. when Fast Money returns.

41:19Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. Crude oil prices popping nearly 4 % today and Brent closing back in on$100 a barrel. As a war in Iran nears 50 days, energy infrastructure in the Middle East is seeing extensive damage. Are energy markets underestimating the impact this will have on prices? CNBC's Pippa Stevens got all the details here. Hey, Pippa. Hey, Melissa. Well, damage to energy infrastructure in the Middle East could cost as much as$58 billion, according to new analysis from Reistad, extending the timeline for when operations could return to normal. The key issue here is that these restoration projects will be competing with projects that were already in the pipeline for things like equipment and labor.

41:55And repair work does not

41:56Melissa Lee:create new capacity, but redirects existing capacity. The price tag is highest for downstream refining and petrochem assets, given their complexity. And overall, the firm said repair costs for oil and gas assets could reach$50 billion, but damage to aluminum smelters, steel plants, power stations, and desalination facilities costing another$8 billion. Iran has the highest number of damaged facilities, as well as the longest repair timelines, thanks to restricted access to Western EPC contractors and OEMs. Qatar's Ras LaFan Industrial City facing a multi-year timeline to return to pre-war output, with refineries in Bahrain and Kuwait also suffering extensive damage.

42:33Melissa Lee:Melissa?

42:34Tim Seymour:Pippa, thanks. Pippa Stevens. And, of course, this means that the timeline for getting all this on, you know, restarted is much longer than what maybe the markets are pricing in.

42:43Melissa Lee:That's how we led the show, talking about that. Exactly.

42:46Tim Seymour:Exactly.

42:46Melissa Lee:And I agree with Pippa, and I agree that the market's probably not taken into consideration. But I think the market is saying, you know what? We've learned how to deal with things potentially worse than this. We'll deal with this as well. And sometimes if you're waiting for the worst case, you're going to be waiting in perpetuity. But I still think, and if Karen were here, I think she'd say the same thing. You've got to own energy stocks. OAH has hung in there like a champ. XLE has pulled back, getting back on its horse. The refining stocks are doing well. Energy, to me, regardless of crude oil, is going higher.

43:14Yeah, look,$58 billion doesn't sound that much if you're paying$72 billion for content. So maybe it's not as big a paycheck as you're worried about. Look, I think the key here is you look at small business sentiment, you look at consumer sentiment, both kind of stepped off the cliff the last couple months. And if you get oil sustainably higher for an extended period of time, I think you worry about what does this do to both business and consumer sentiment going forward. I think from an equity perspective, we look at two-year oil to just see where that outlook is because energy tends to trade off the swap.

43:42And then we're going to keep a close eye on sentiment because that's how this is going to manifest itself, I think.

43:46Tim Seymour:It seemed like when oil peaked, a lot of people went underweight energy. Is that the right move? Well, I mean, think about it. The energy stocks led. In the month of February, oil was unchanged, up 2%, 3%. XLE was up 13, 14. OIH was up 17, 20. Anticipating what might have come. And then going up 45%, much of it was priced in. I think you stay underweight. Coming up, your next DQ Blizzard order may be handled a little bit differently. How Dairy Queen is changing the way it takes orders and what it means for costs and for jobs. More Fast Money in tune.

44:26Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. Putting the AI in dairy clean. The Wall Street Journal reporting. That's clever. Is that from a fig and a... I don't know. It sounds like it. The ice cream chain is rolling out artificial intelligence chatbots to take orders at drive-thrus in dozens of its U.S. stores. This after Starbucks announced yesterday it is launching a beta app within ChatGPT where users can turn their feelings into a custom drink. Artificial intelligence will apparently take inspiration from their vibes to create personalized orders. That should be interesting. Would they serve you up tar, guy?

45:04Tim Seymour:No, it's not interesting. No, it is interesting. No, it's not. Because this is the way AI innovates, and this will bring costs down for the restaurant stocks. Okay.

45:14Melissa Lee:But I want to walk into the DQ. There's one in Basking Ridge or Bernersville. This is for drive-thrus.

45:19Tim Seymour:This is for drive-thrus.

45:20Melissa Lee:You shouldn't be going to the drive-thru ever. Go and speak to a human being. Get out of your freaking car. Sometimes you don't want to take two kids at a car seat in order to go into a store. That was a good get-off-my-lawn rant.

45:35Tim Seymour:I don't know. I hear you. My experience at drive-thru is you cannot understand the person. They can't understand you. You get the wrong order. But apparently what this chat does is it is able to accurately take the order and also upsell the menu.

45:46Melissa Lee:Stop it. Diction is important. You have to use your words properly. I don't know. I think the fact that they can't hear you at the drive-thru is half the fun. It's part of the experience. It never works. It's not a bug. It's a feature. There's another way to think about this, guys. If companies like Dairy Queen are not using chatbots and they're not being hosted on a cloud, then this whole thing doesn't work.

46:10Tim Seymour:So it's good for the AI trade that there is actual adoption in industries you would not expect.

46:15Melissa Lee:It sounds goofy, but we're going to need to see pickup.

46:19Tim Seymour:Up next, final trades.

46:28Tim Seymour:Final trade time, Stuart Kaiser of Citi. We'll go EWI, Korea, lean into the AI bottleneck trade. Carter Braxton Worth. Oil lower, USO, seller. Dan.

46:39Melissa Lee:Adobe long into their summit next Tuesday. We're family here at Fast Money, as you know. We are. Back in E.C., that's Anglewood Cliff. Steve Blazo, our director's birthday. I don't know how old he is.

46:50Tim Seymour:Happy birthday. No idea, but listen, happy birthday.

46:52Melissa Lee:Enjoy it. Many, many more.

46:54Tim Seymour:Give me a final tray, please.

46:55Melissa Lee:I believe it would be the Netflix, Melissa.

46:57Tim Seymour:All right. Thank you for watching Fast Money. Mad Money with Jim Kramer starts right now. All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet, or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such.

47:31To view the full Fast Money Disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com forward slash Fast Money Disclaimer. This summer, the Atlas Obscura podcast is going on a World Cup adventure. From late May to mid-July, we are dropping special episodes every Monday and Wednesday, exploring the strange, incredible, and hidden places in all 16 host cities. Think unexpected museums, secret landmarks, stories you won't find in any guidebook. Whether you're traveling for the matches or just listening along, we will take you somewhere surprising. New episodes all summer long, wherever you get your podcasts.

From the publisher

Netflix on the move after-hours following its latest earnings report. What we’re hearing out of the company conference call, and what a top media analyst sees in store for the streaming wars. Plus Taiwan Semi delivers results, The Chartmaster boards the Transports train, and the impact on oil and gas prices as analysts digest the energy infrastructure damage through out the region.

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