In short
Fast Money covers a market selloff tied to Trump tariff threats over Greenland, rising Treasury yields and a weaker dollar; Netflix’s earnings/guidance and its bid to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery; natural gas surging on Arctic cold; and company-specific moves including Intel, Lululemon, United Airlines, and Structure Therapeutics.
Guests (backgrounds)
Rich Greenfield (Lightshed Partners) covers media/streaming equities; Stuart Kaiser (Citi) is head of equity trading strategy; Scott Kirby (United CEO) leads airline operations; plus CNBC reporters Melissa Lee, Eamon Javers, Phil LeBeau, Julia Boorstin (journalists).
Key claims
Tariff headlines are driving risk-off via bond yield pressure; Netflix’s quarter beat but guidance and margin talk spooked investors; Netflix is “dressing for antitrust” and is confident on regulatory approval; natural gas jumped ~26% due to heating demand; United demand is strong with premium share gains; Intel’s rally is supported by an analyst upgrade and improving foundry/PC outlook; Structure Therapeutics’ GLP-1/amylin pipeline supports a higher valuation.
Notable examples
S&P -2%, Nasdaq -2.4%, 10-year yield ~4.3%; Netflix pauses buybacks to fund Warner deal; United adds ovens in coach and up-gauges aircraft; nat gas drillers jump; Seaport upgrades Intel to buy; Guggenheim lifts Structure Therapeutics PT to $140.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Chapters
Tap a time to open that second in VOMarket Reaction to Tariff Threats
0:00 to 0:22
Analysis of market downturns due to tariff threats from President Trump.
“Mazda has been named Consumer Reports' safest new car brand.”
Market Reaction to Tariff Threats
1:38 to 4:00
Analysis of market downturns due to tariff threats from President Trump.
“We start off with the market route coming after President Trump threatened new tariffs on European countries over the weekend as part of his push to take control of Greenland.”
Impact of Tariffs on Stocks
4:00 to 6:39
Discussion on how tariffs influence stock performance and investor behavior.
“We just don't know which President Trump we're going to see tomorrow.”
Economic Concerns and Bond Yields
6:39 to 9:01
Exploration of rising bond yields and their implications for the economy.
“I think global bond yields, and I mean sovereign bond yields moving higher, is a risk that equity markets have not had to encounter in a long time.”
Global Market Implications
9:01 to 11:19
Discussion on global market reactions to U.S. economic policies and tariffs.
“Morgan, for instance, it really hasn't been able to get out of its own way since it reported.”
Investor Strategies Amid Instability
11:19 to 14:03
Insights on investor strategies during periods of market instability.
“Obviously, headline risk is going to be, you know, going to be quite elevated as we go into Davos, et cetera.”
Market Analysis: Small Caps and Cyclicals
14:03 to 15:51
Discussion on small cap performance and market trends.
“You actually had a day where small cap was up and cyclicals did okay, but it was really staples and IWM were the two best performers.”
Netflix Earnings Report: Key Insights
15:51 to 17:24
Breaking down Netflix's earnings report and market reaction.
“The streaming giant reporting earnings just slightly above expectations, a milestone, 325 million paid subscribers.”
Netflix's Competitive Landscape and Acquisitions
17:24 to 20:02
Exploring Netflix's competition and the Warner Brothers acquisition.
“Sarandos just moments ago talking about what a big rival YouTube is.”
Reactions to Netflix Earnings and Future Outlook
20:02 to 21:03
Panelists discuss their views on Netflix's earnings and future guidance.
“And I mean, Tim's point about the advertising thing, I think that'll probably fit better in some of these new properties that they have.”
Show all 21 chapters
Impact of Cold Weather on Natural Gas Prices
22:41 to 24:22
Analyzing the effects of winter weather on natural gas prices.
“Brutally cold temperatures hitting much of the U.S.”
Semiconductor Market Trends and Intel's Performance
24:22 to 28:00
Discussion on Intel's stock performance and the semiconductor industry.
“Coming up, a bright spot in today's Sea of Red, why shares of Intel bucked the trend and where the traders see that name heading next.”
Semiconductor Market Resilience
28:00 to 28:59
Discussion on the resilience of the semiconductor stocks amidst market trends.
“And in fact, the semiconductors chart looks a little different here.”
Market Overview and Lululemon's Struggles
29:07 to 30:21
Overview of stock market performance and issues faced by Lululemon.
“Stocks dropping to start the holiday shortened week.”
Netflix Earnings Call Insights
30:21 to 36:30
Insights from Netflix's earnings call and implications of potential acquisitions.
“The stock around the lows of the after-hour session following the streamers narrowed.”
United Airlines Earnings Report
36:32 to 41:03
Discussion on United Airlines' earnings and CEO insights on demand and growth.
“Coming up, we're watching United Airlines after its latest earnings report, the details from those results, and what CEO Scott Kirby has to say about the quarter, the exclusive interview when Fast Money returns.”
Airline Industry Analysis
41:06 to 42:01
Analysis of the airline industry and specific insights on United and Delta.
“I think Delta's a$100 stock in the next 12 months.”
Airline Guidance Discussion
42:01 to 42:40
Exploring guidance inconsistencies and airline stock valuations.
“I mean, and I would have said this to him.”
Structure Therapeutics Price Target
42:40 to 44:22
Discussion on Structure Therapeutics' boosted price target and potential.
“Structure Therapeutics getting another boost today after Guggenheim hiked its price target to$140 from$90 a share.”
Market Speculations on Novo
44:22 to 44:57
Speculations on whether Novo could be a buyer of Structure Therapeutics.
“Look, there's an argument that actually it takes the valuations of these others higher, that the addressable market is that much more secure.”
Final Trades and Market Insights
44:57 to 46:01
Final trades with insights on airlines and Netflix from the hosts.
“Time for the final trade on this Tuesday.”
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:02Mazda has been named Consumer Reports' safest new car brand. It starts with our approach. Every Mazda comes standard with proactive safety features. So you're more aware of what's around you, more focused on the road ahead, and ready before problems ever start. Mazda. More of what matters most to you. Go to mazdausa.com to learn more. Consumer Reports does not endorse or promote any product.
0:30Tim Seymour:At Edward Jones, we believe rich isn't about having life all figured out. It's opening yourself to all the possibilities. That's why your dedicated financial advisor provides long-term planning built around you, meeting you where you are, and helping you get closer to where you want to be. So no matter where you're starting from, you can move forward with confidence. The key to being rich is knowing what counts. Let's find your rich. Edward Jones, member SIPC. Live from the Nasdaq market side in the heart of New York City's Times Square, this is Fast Money. Here's what's on tap tonight. A market meltdown on the threat of new tariffs, sending major indices to their worst day in more than three months.
1:12Tim Seymour:One-time flying tech stocks leading the way lower. How much more pain is there to come? And how do you position yourself right now? We'll get some answers. In a big night of earnings, Netflix shares dropping despite a revenue beat. What is driving the move? The latest of the streamers bid for Warner Brothers Discovery. And that's not the only report we're watching. shares of United Airlines taking flight. We'll get the details behind the numbers from CEO Scott Kirby later on this hour. I'm Melissa Lee. Come to you live from Studio B at the Nasdaq. On the desk tonight, Tim Seymour, Karen Feinerman, Dan Nathan, and Guy Adami.
1:41Tim Seymour:We start off with the market route coming after President Trump threatened new tariffs on European countries over the weekend as part of his push to take control of Greenland. Stocks closing year session lows with major averages, each putting in their worst days since October 10th. The S &P sliding 2 percent, erasing its year-to-date gains. The Dow shedding 870 points, while tech led the losses with the Nasdaq down 2.4 percent. The Magnificent Seven collectively dropping 3 percent today. That's an aggregate market cap loss of nearly$650 billion. That's more than the size of Visa. And while stocks pull back, longer-dated Treasury yields are on the rise, a benchmark 10-year yield hitting its highest level since August, the dollar index dropping, while gold and silver settled at fresh records and Bitcoin slipping almost 4 percent now back below 90 K.
2:28Tim Seymour:Also today, President Trump joined the White House press briefing room to mark one year since taking office. Eamon Javers is in Washington with all those headlines. Eamon.
2:37Melissa Lee:Yeah, Melissa, that's right. The president spoke for about an hour and 45 minutes in the briefing room, reliving what he views as the highlights of the past year on a whole host of different topics. But take a look Look at this graphic, which shows the timeline here for the tariffs that the president announced over the weekend. February 1st, he says it will be a 10 percent tariff on all goods, that is goods involved with countries that sent their forces to Greenland to protect it from a potential U.S. invasion. On June 1st, he said that will increase to 25 percent. And he said those tariffs will be charged until a deal is reached for the United States to purchase Greenland.
3:15Melissa Lee:And so at this point, that's what the president says is going to happen. But remember, Melissa, we saw the president announce tariffs last week. He announced 25 percent tariffs on countries that are doing business with Iran and including potentially China. The president said several times last week that those tariffs were in effect. They are not. We have not seen those noticed in the federal register yet. So nobody is collecting the tariffs that the president said went into effect last week. It's not clear whether these will go into effect or whether the president will be able to come to some terms tomorrow.
3:44Melissa Lee:But he does leave tonight to head out to Davos, and he is expected to address the World Economic Forum tomorrow. And he's also going to talk to CNBC tomorrow. So all of this coming to a head as the president goes sort of eyeball to eyeball with those European leaders in Davos tomorrow. Will the president be in a deal-making mood or will the president be in a military action type of mood? We just don't know which President Trump we're going to see tomorrow. So we'll keep our eyes on it.
4:08Tim Seymour:On what basis, Eamon, is President Trump threatening these tariffs? since the tariffs that were already in effect are being decided on by the Supreme Court?
4:17Melissa Lee:Yeah, so this is, these would be, we believe, IEPA tariffs. That is the same law that the Supreme Court is considering right now, whether it's constitutional or not, to use that law to impose tariffs. So the president could be imposing tariffs both here and in the Iran situation last week, using a tariff authority that he claims that the Supreme Court could then shut down. We don't know. The Supreme Court is taking its time coming up with this ruling on tariffs. And meanwhile, companies, you know, the meter is running on these tariffs. Companies are paying these tariffs every day that the president put in place back on Liberation Day, as he called it last year.
4:52Melissa Lee:So this is real dollars and cents for a lot of companies. They want some resolution to this. And for the president, he wants to be able to continue to flex in terms of foreign policy by using these tariffs to push countries to do what he wants them to do. All of that really up in the air. It's just an incredible moment, Melissa.
5:08Tim Seymour:Yeah. Eamon, thank you. Eamon Javers in Washington. And do not miss Joe Kernan's interview with President Trump. That's live from the World Economic Forum in Davos tomorrow, 1 p.m. Eastern time, right here on CNBC. What's fascinating about this terror threat this time around is that it's not for trade reasons or economic reasons. It's for geographical reasons, the ability to actually seize a country, which is sort of strange to think about. Play with fire often enough at a certain point, you're going to get burned. And as much as the president will say that he doesn't watch the stock market, I guarantee that he knows the S &P was down 2 percent today, one of the biggest one-day moves we've seen in quite some time.
5:44So there's a very good chance that some of this rhetoric gets ratcheted back. But your point is well taken. But the most concerning thing for me today, forgetting about the stock market, was the fact that 10-year yields are now basically 4.3 percent on the back of a dollar that's seemingly starting to weaken again, which is historically something you see in, like, developing economies. This is not a developing economy. So a weaker dollar, weaker bond market is problematic.
6:07Karen Finerman:Well, you still I mean, I call this the emerging market trade the day when your currency, your stock market, your bond market sell off. This is what you see when there are political crises in emerging markets. I mean, we have seen this and we saw this in April. And you combine that with and which is the tail and which is the dog or which is, you know, one which is leading the other. But the move in JGB yields, as we've talked about, I mean, this is on top of also Takeuchi with policy that is very concerning for credit investors, for people that are worried about sovereign sovereignty. And this was a sell America day.
6:38Karen Finerman:And whether you're worried about the Danish pension fund or not, the fact that they were able to get out there, were selling treasuries not based upon what's going on in Greenland, but in fact, were worried about the country's finances. I think global bond yields, and I mean sovereign bond yields moving higher, is a risk that equity markets have not had to encounter in a long time. Because in April, it was the U.S. market. JGB yields were under control, even though we've been talking about that for a while. So today was a day when you combined what's been simmering in the pot with U.S. headlines, and it was a sell America day.
7:14So I agree with both of them. I thought the bond move was particularly interesting. A couple things I thought. It was somewhat reminiscent of Liberation Day, but we'd been through one Liberation Day. We saw that it was just, that was, you know, within a few days, that was the peak, bottom. And so, you know, I think people are more sort of tempered now. There was an interesting interview Sarah did with Secretary Lutnik where he seemed to say, we're not, we're, you know, the trade deal is as it is. It's not changing. He sort of made it sound like we're not breaking up. We're just, you know, we're just in a fight.
7:48That's how it sounded to me. The other thing that I found really interesting was the lack of move in the VIX, right? This wasn't we got nowhere remotely close to a panic territory at all. So maybe that's coming. You got a couple of days.
8:02Karen Finerman:Yeah, yeah, yeah. No, I absolutely could. I bought a tiny bit of stock today. I bought Amazon, traded below 230. I thought, all right, down nine bucks. You know, I want to be bigger anyway. Other than that, I did nothing.
8:15Melissa Lee:Yeah, to your point about the kind of post-April period when we had that tariff situation. And investors got okay, I think, to some degree about what was going to be out there, what was going to be pulled back or so. But it really did take a few months to get a lot of clarity yet. And so when you think about this sort of situation, we do have the cumulative nature of these tariffs. We do have a situation where if we have that level of uncertainty going forward, you might have a lot of companies kind of pull back on some of those plans for 2026, whether it's capbacks, whether it's hiring, that sort of thing.
8:48Melissa Lee:And especially when you think about just how volatile, I guess, if you just look over the last couple of weeks or so, a lot of policy, not just on foreign policy, but just think of the banks and how they traded after last week's earnings with that threat of a cap on credit card rates. And if you look at J.P. Morgan, for instance, it really hasn't been able to get out of its own way since it reported. And it reported a quarter and gave guidance and had commentary that we all sat around saying that looked pretty good, right? And so you're seeing some of the money center banks really got hit hard towards the end of the day.
9:18Melissa Lee:So if you think about where we are, if rates are going to go higher, if uncertainty about the economy here, but also the global economy is going to kind of get ratcheted up, then at some point, if you're a strategist or you're an analyst covering a sector, you're probably going to get a bit more cautious on what you expect to happen in 2026. So, again, you know, this is one day. One day does not make a trend. We did have, you know, a 6 % or so sell-off that came, I think, in November. And then where we were a few weeks later, we were just kind of pressing against new all-time highs.
9:48Tim Seymour:All right, let's get more on the sell-off with Stuart Kaiser. He's Citi's head of equity trading strategy. Stuart, great to have you with us. A lot doesn't work if bond yields go higher here in the United States. I mean, you think that the problem here in terms of the market sell-off really started with JGBs? Yeah, Mois, I do. I mean, I think you have JGB yields moving higher. You did have, obviously, the tariff from Greenland headlines. And then also you had, look, positioning was quite long, and you had a nice kind of cyclical rally to start the year. So I think investors were not looking to hang around once they got that kind of bad news.
10:21But of the three, we do think the global bond yields was a number one risk. And frankly, I think that's been a risk that's really been in the background probably since July of last year, when 30-year yields in the U.S., U.K., Germany, and Japan all got above 3 percent for the first time in history, basically. So this has kind of been a simmering risk in the background and, you know, decided to kind of rear its head this week.
10:42Tim Seymour:How long do you think this lasts? I mean, when we take a look back at Liberation Day and that low that we saw, that was a great buying opportunity. Are we going to look back at a day like today and think the same? You know, we definitely could be. You know, for now, I'm kind of equating this a little bit more back into October when you had that brief kind of tariff escalation between the U.S. and China. And President Trump kind of threatened 100 percent tariffs again on China. We got about a 5 percent pullback in U.S. equity markets. So to me, that timing is a little more consistent with where we are today than what we got back in last April.
11:18You know, we'll have to see. Obviously, headline risk is going to be, you know, going to be quite elevated as we go into Davos, et cetera. But for now, I think we're thinking about this a little bit more like October on the tariff side of things. The JGB yields, that's something that can be a little persistent. If those yields start to rise and we start to see them spill over a little bit. You only had the U.S. 30-year up eight basis points today. Gilts and bunds didn't move as much. If that kind of starts to cascade, I think that is the risk I'd be worried about that could be a little bit more persistent and a little more damaging to markets.
11:49Yeah, Stuart, I'm glad you mentioned that because I watch that more than anything is the fact that, again, yields in Japan every day seemingly a new record high on the backdrop of a currency today, notwithstanding, that's been weakening right before our very eyes. And at some point you're looking at what we saw in July of 2024, if you remember, into August of that year when the whole trade unraveled. This is a little bit different this time because of the bond market. But speak to that. I mean, the fact that it can make its way to our shores very quickly. Yeah, you know, I agree with that 100%.
12:20I mean, I think if you go back to that past summer you're describing, that was more of like a yen carry trade unwinding. And that's going to kind of operate more in the front of the yield curve. We haven't seen that metric kind of start to blow out, that vol to carry ratio on the yen. To your point, what we've seen is the 30-year and the bond term premium kind of continue to rise. It would definitely be concerning to us if we saw the yen volatility really kind of inflect higher, because then you sort of have both the front and the long end of the curve operating from a negative risk perspective.
12:51So I agree with you. We've got our eyes on both of those things. For now, it's the long end of the curve, and you're kind of watching, does that create a global spillover? And then obviously, got your other eye kind of on that yen carry trade and see if that starts to dislocate. But for now, I think pretty comforting to see that the currency side of that hasn't been activated as a risk.
13:10Karen Finerman:Stuart, Tim, so where do you think we are most extended here? I mean, look at the rally in gold today. Look at the fall in the dollar. We've talked about JGB yields, wherever you want to quantify or assess the credit profile and what's going on with Takahishi. Any of these trades seem as if they've gone too far to you. And again, you talked about positioning from investors that almost seemed complacent going into this. Yeah, I mean, it's hard to say anything that's gone too far at this point because the trend, you know, to Guy's point earlier, the trend in the 30-year GGBs has just been, you know, very persistent.
13:43So, you know, it's hard to see where support, you know, for that trade could be. In terms of U.S., I mean, you know, I think Karen mentioned we haven't really seen, you know, the VIX move all that much. You know, today felt like more of a positioning type sell-off, right? It was tech, it was MAG-7 that underperformed and actually, you know, significantly underperformed IWM. IWM. You actually had a day where small cap was up and cyclicals did okay, but it was really staples and IWM were the two best performers. So I don't know looking at it today that I would identify anything that on a tactical basis looks extremely oversold, which for that reason, I do think you want to be kind of a little bit cautious going into the overnight because I don't see massive dislocations.
14:24I think Karen mentioned Amazon moved about nine bucks. It's a nice move, But, you know, that's not a, you know, just close your eyes and buy type level. And I think it's hard to identify any assets that would fall into that category, you know, sitting here today.
14:37Tim Seymour:Stuart, thank you. Stuart Kaiser of Citi. And I think that's a great point in terms of the move lower that we did see. It was a move lower, but it didn't change anything in terms of the trend line of the markets. I mean, we're so close to all-time highs here. It wasn't like a big correction.
14:52Melissa Lee:Yeah, and I guess in days like this, and I think Karen does this too, and I think you're speaking to that with like an Amazon, you really try to get your hands around what was moving lower and why, right? And how it was relative to, let's say, the broad market and then some of its peers. And, you know, one of the names that stuck out to me was Taiwan Semi. We know how important this company is to so many aspects of the generative AI trade. And you think of this thing was trading, I think, on Friday afternoon at an all-time high. But then we think about all of these other companies. You know, you mentioned an Amazon, but look at NVIDIA, how that's traded.
15:22Melissa Lee:Look at Microsoft, how that's traded. So we've been talking about this underperformance by many of the MAG7 over the last few months. And so, you know, I like to see, is Taiwan Semi going to start to follow some of its major customers or not? Is it going to follow it for fundamental reasons? Well, here's a company that just reported last week and had great numbers and really had good commentary. So maybe some of these names have just gotten ahead of themselves, both in sentiment terms, but also valuation and expectations. And so to me, I think Taiwan Semi is one of the more interesting names in the market today.
15:50Tim Seymour:All right. We've got an earnings alert on Netflix. shares are under pressure after hours. The streaming giant reporting earnings just slightly above expectations, a milestone, 325 million paid subscribers. The conference call is underway. CNBC's Julia Borson's got the latest on this. Julia. Hey, Melissa, that's right. Netflix shares are about four and a half percent lower in after hours trading on guidance that is short of expectations. The company guiding to first quarter earnings, five cents short of estimates and revenue a hair short of estimates and first quarter operating margin. They're guiding to 32 rather than the 34 % that analysts were looking for.
16:24The company also announcing it's pausing its share buybacks to accumulate cash to help fund the pending acquisition of Warner Brothers. On the conference call just now, executives updating on the Warner Brothers deal. Take a listen. We're working really hard to close the acquisition of Warner Brothers Studios and HBO, which we see as a strategic accelerant. And we're doing all this while we're driving and sustaining healthy growth. We forecast 2026 revenue at 51 billion, which is up 14 percent year on year. It's an exciting time. You know, this is an exciting time in the business. Lots of innovation, lots of competition.
17:00Co-CEO Ted Sarandos, along with his co-CEO Greg Peters, also weighing in on some questions about the integration of the two companies, saying they're enthusiastic about Warner Brothers' theatrical business.
17:10Tim Seymour:And when asked about pricing as a result, changing pricing as a result of the deal, they said there is no change to their approach on pricing for Netflix. They also said they are confident about the deal getting regulatory approval. Sarandos just moments ago talking about what a big rival YouTube is. So that's sure to be part of that argument to the Department of Justice. Back over to you, Melissa. Julia, thank you. Julia Boorstin. Karen, what did you make of these numbers? So I thought the numbers were pretty good. I also think of Netflix as not a great sort of estimator of their own future earnings.
17:46So I kind of discount that somewhat. They went to sort of great lengths, as Julia alluded to, about how competitive the space is, which is a message to regulators of, you know, you've got to approve this deal because it's so competitive. I mean, Warner Brothers is so far from over. This bump is not going to get it done. They know that. But so looks like they're going to end up paying more if they want it. They seem to want it. So I'm long. This hasn't been a great run for Netflix, but I'm staying long. I didn't see anything that was particularly troubling here. The valuation's a little bit stretched, as it has been for a long time.
18:25The cash flow is good, though.
Read the full transcript
18:27Karen Finerman:Well, you know, I'm technically long as of last week. I thought the setup for the earnings was really in the favor of the bulls. And I think if you can look out 12 to 18 months, there's no question that the multiple is interesting as you get into 27. Listening to Sarandos, there's two or three things that sound horrible for margin. The competitive landscape, and he's emphasizing it. They're on the tape talking about production capacity that they now have. And they're saying we're no longer making cat videos. We're a TV company. I mean, do you want to be a TV company? And, I mean, cat videos, you know, I think are fine.
18:59Karen Finerman:But ultimately, the messaging from Netflix here is a 35 multiple, which you were paying last year and OK to pay. It's a different time. And that's the biggest issue. The earnings were fine. The earnings are going to be fine. The ad generation. And so the you know what we're getting in terms of those ad comps north of 50 percent growth going to be great. Are you paying 35 times for it? I don't think so.
19:24Tim Seymour:Is there some degree, though, of playing down everything on the part of Sarandos so that the deal, I mean, it looks like it's a super competitive industry and the deal has to go through because of all these pressures that they are facing. Antitrust. He doesn't win if he's saying everything is great and we've got great margins and we've got pricing power. I mean, it just doesn't work that way. Yeah. They want to be an under-promise, over-deliver, right? Yeah. And that's what happened. These numbers are actually, for this quarter, very good.
19:51Melissa Lee:Well, there's an argument to be made that maybe Paramount goes to the Warner board and says, hey, look, these guys aren't doing it. I mean, there's lots of different ways to think about that, right? I mean, I would have thought coming into this, you'd rather be in a position of strength. You'd rather put up a big quarter with good guidance and be able to articulate how your company is going to be able to better integrate Warner Brothers and how they're going to be able to take costs out and actually grow margins and the like. And I mean, Tim's point about the advertising thing, I think that'll probably fit better in some of these new properties that they have.
20:20Melissa Lee:They've been growing it really fast. It's really great margin sort of business. But, again, I think it's really hard to say. I would have, if I'm Sarandos, and you guys would all like me to be Sarandos, there'd be no cat videos, Tim, in that world. You know, I'd probably want to have a stronger outlook than what they did. I think there were lots of puts and takes for both. What's a cat video? That's the YouTube. What's a cat video? The cat videos, that's what the people are there for. It's not a euphemism for anything, guys. You just keep moving. I'm hoping that it's not. It's not your joke. I thought the quarter was fine.
20:49Melissa Lee:I thought the quarter was real. I think the guide scared people and the fact that they talked down margins. But, listen, I said last week I thought it set up really well under earnings. That's clearly wrong. But I think the sell-off, now it's completely overdone to the downside.
21:03Tim Seymour:Coming up, we'll keep watching Netflix after hours, bringing the headlines from the company's conference call as we get them. Plus, the details reunited the latest quarter in an exclusive interview with CEO Scott Kirby on the airline's next move. But first, plunging temps sending net gas prices spiking. the next move in energy as millions face a blast of winter weather. Don't go anywhere. Fast Money is back in two. At Venture Global, we think about what can be done, not what's usually done. Through innovation, Venture Global is not only building some of the largest energy facilities in the world
21:36Karen Finerman:right here in the United States, but delivering American energy at a fraction of the cost and a fraction of the time. So while others are busy talking, we're busy building. That's Venture Global. That's unstoppable energy. My mom inspired me to dream big and work hard. Sign her annums! What would you like the power to do? Bank of America, proud to be the official bank of U.S. soccer and FIFA World Cup 2026. Bank of America N.A., member FDSE.
22:09Melissa Lee:It's my first day of work and I need to make a big impression. From executive producer Mindy Kaling.
22:14Tim Seymour:This is our sexual harassment training. Hands off your co-workers. Now sign this saying that I trained you or you're fired. Yes, ma 'am. Work relationships are too messy. I just met the woman of my dreams. You gotta chill out and not come on too strong. That goes against my entire personality, but I'll try. Watch Not Suitable for Work, now streaming on Hulu and Hulu on Disney Plus for bundle subscribers. Terms apply. Welcome back to Fast Money. Brutally cold temperatures hitting much of the U.S. as Arctic air blasts through major cities. And there's more to come. A big winter storm forecast to hit the southern Rockies and the Plains and the South by Friday, eventually reaching the East Coast this weekend, according to the National Weather Service.
22:56Tim Seymour:The frigid weather causing natural gas prices to soar nearly 26 percent today. That's the biggest jump in four years as heating demand spikes. So major moves here. We saw some nat gas drillers moving sharply higher in today's session. I mean, Paul, for you and G-Chart, and I'm not advocating to get into this because it's a very poorly constructed. But when you see a move of this magnitude today, I mean, it tells you everything you need to know. In a past life, we call natural gas the widow maker. And that's exactly for things like today. Now, the weather will pass and this will pass as well. However, the energy trade will not pass.
23:31I think this is just one more reason to like what's going on in the energy space.
23:35Tim Seymour:There's an economic impact, though, theoretically, for a prolonged cold streak. People aren't going out as much. They're not shopping maybe as much. They're not, you know, doing all these things.
23:44Karen Finerman:Yeah, I think that's right. I mean, structurally, it's hard to feel like anything has changed. But there's no question this has been an extreme winter across actually a lot of parts of the world. And the cyclicality of that will affect. There's also been an element of where lower gas and energy prices have been a tailwind to a lot of economies, especially Europe, that about, you know, certainly go all the way back to Ukraine invasion, where, you know, biggest impact on Germany outside of defense concerns was the impact on energy. So higher net gas prices, not great. Chenier LNG is a name I think is very interesting here.
24:16Karen Finerman:After you've priced in a lot of bad news over capacity, and I think actually was cheap going into this, there's one to look at.
24:22Tim Seymour:Coming up, a bright spot in today's Sea of Red, why shares of Intel bucked the trend and where the traders see that name heading next. Plus, all the headlines from Netflix's conference call what one top analyst is hearing and the latest details on its Warner Brothers bid. You're watching Fast Money Live from the NASDAQ Market Site in Times Square. Back right after this. Right there, behind you.
24:48At Venture Global, we think about what can be done, not what's usually done.
24:54Karen Finerman:Through innovation, Venture Global is not only building some of the largest energy facilities in the world right here in the United States, but delivering American energy at a fraction of the cost and a fraction of the time. So while others are busy talking, we're busy building. That's Venture Global. That's unstoppable energy.
25:18Tim Seymour:I'm honored to make history and to make my community proud. What would you like the power to do? Bank of America. Proud to be the official Bank of U.S. Soccer. Bank of America and a member FDSC.
25:33Melissa Lee:It's my first day of work and I need to make a big
25:36Tim Seymour:impression.
25:37Melissa Lee:From executive producer Mindy Kaling.
25:39Tim Seymour:This is our sexual harassment training. Hands off your co-workers. Now sign this saying that I trained you or you're fired. Yes ma 'am. Work relationships are too messy. I just met the woman of my dreams. You gotta chill out and not come on too strong. And that goes against my entire personality, but I'll try. Watch Not Suitable for Work, now streaming on Hulu and Hulu on Disney Plus for bundle subscribers. Terms apply. Welcome back to Fast Money. One bright spot in the semi-sell-off today. Intel resuming its rally, jumping almost 7 % at its highs and ending the day up 3.4%. Analysts at Seaport upgrading the stock from a neutral to a buy.
26:16Tim Seymour:Sending an improving foundry outlook and strong PC sales. Intel shares are up more than 30 % since the start of the year. The company reports earnings on Thursday. Dan, what did you call? Use the D word? I don't know. What's the D word? The D word. Dumb. Oh, that's a gentle D word.
26:33Melissa Lee:It's one of the dumbest moves I've seen in the stock in a very long time. You think about that upgrade. I mean, here's an analyst who's been bearish. And again, it probably was easy to do so on fundamental reasons. And something changed, obviously, this summer when the government took a stake. And then obviously this company, you know, just said they're going to get into manufacturing. But on the PC front, I do think it's worth noting that obviously, you know, Intel is a huge customer of Dell. Dell is down 35 percent in the last month and a half. And Intel is up 35 percent in the last month and a half.
27:02Melissa Lee:So when you think about this disconnect, you think about what analysts are talking about with PC demand. It has not been apparent. I mean, Dell told us that when they reported last month. And if you're waiting for a AI PC upgrade cycle, I wouldn't hold your breath. Yeah. So Dell, I mean, PC refresh, which I've been much more optimistic about than was warranted, hasn't happened. But for Dell, not only did not happen, they lost share in the PCs that did get sold. So I don't know that I would call this dumb. I agree that the valuation here seems stretched and a lot of good things priced in. For Intel.
27:38Yeah, for Intel. I know CPU demand if, you know, if PCs really take off. But I would not be a buyer here. And D, of course, is the. D is the. It's a letter in my acronym.
27:48Tim Seymour:Bidang. Bidang. Bidang. Bidang. Yeah. Meantime, we did see huge gains in the memory stocks today.
27:56Karen Finerman:And they seem to be immune from the broader cell. Also, if you look at the semiconductor index, the stocks, SMH, whatever you're tracking, Unlike the NASDAQ or Triple Q's or the SPYs, which went through the 50 today, we talked about the start of the show, the semiconductors have not. And in fact, the semiconductors chart looks a little different here. And it has been more resilient because of this view of different parts of the memory complex, which I don't know how you don't get back to their commodities. And at some point there's a production response because that's truly what it says. It does tell you demand is not abating.
28:33Tim Seymour:Yeah. Guy. Micron was a$90 stock in March, so less than a year ago. It's trading$365 today. Forget about valuation. It's not about that. It's your belief that somehow a highly cyclical, highly commoditized industry is now no longer that. And I don't believe that to be the case. It's not different this time. Coming up, all the headlines from the Netflix conference call what's moving the stock after hours and where shares are heading next. More Fast Money in 2.
29:07Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. Stocks dropping to start the holiday shortened week. Major averages all posting their worst day since October. The Dow falling nearly 900 points. The S &P down 2%, falling below its 50-day moving average for the first time since December 18th. And the Nasdaq leading the losses down 2.4%. Shares of Lululemon dropping 6.5 % today. Founder Chip Wilson reportedly looking to oust private equity firm Advent from the board in an ongoing proxy fight launched late last month. Separately, Lulu also pausing online sales of a new workout line of leggings after complaints the material is too sheer and not...
29:41Tim Seymour:Okay, this is in the prompter. It's not squat proof. You didn't say that. You did not say that. I swear, it was in the prompter. She had to read it. But that's a complaint. What does that even mean? What does that even mean? What does it mean? It's called the go-low line. Right, it's too sheer. They've had this sheer problem before. But what happens when you squat? Well, it's not squat proof. Maybe it becomes too sheer. I guess it's a big problem.
30:03Karen Finerman:I guess. Be careful of the squat. You want to be able to squat. Look, New Year's resolutions are out. I think there's probably more squats in 26.
30:11Tim Seymour:Especially in January. Squats are seasonal, maybe. Anyway. We can go on. But we won't. I promise. Another check on Netflix here. The stock around the lows of the after-hour session following the streamers narrowed. Earnings beat the conference call wrapped up a few minutes ago. Let's bring in Rich Greenfield of Lightshed Partners, who was on the call. He's got a buy rating on Netflix stock. Rich, great to have you with us. I don't know how I follow that last segment. It's not easy. It's not fair. You don't have to talk about squats. What did you make of this quarter? And what did you hear from Ted Sarandos about this deal?
30:48That they are absolutely committed to getting to close, right? Like, they want this transaction. Obviously, they showed flexibility in adjusting to all cash. I think that's great, makes it easier and faster to move this forward from a proxy standpoint. They'll probably get a vote in March or April. And look, I think this really you see how focused Netflix is on winning this. I mean, again, nobody thought they were a bidder. And look, I think even listening to Ted and Greg on the call today, they were pretty clear that when this all started, they were sort of anti acquisition. And as they got into it and they started doing due diligence on Warner Brothers, they believe this was something they had to have.
31:30And so I think that this is what makes it really hard. You know, you saw the commentary in the proxy this morning from Warner Brothers. It's going to be really hard for Paramount to come back because there is more value to the Discovery Global, the to be spun off piece of this that Netflix isn't buying than what Paramount had talked about. They had said it was worthless. Warner Brothers has said it's worth three, four, five, maybe even six dollars a share. That makes it very hard for Paramount to come back unless they're willing to really overspend on this, like to do something truly crazy from a valuation standpoint.
32:05And I don't think that makes sense for Paramount. So Paramount should just, I think, pack it in and go do something else with their cash rather than overspend to buy Warner Brothers. I doubt they'll do that, but I hope they do. For Netflix, I think they're really focused on winning. And it was interesting. they are far more confident in regulatory approval than what investors currently, when I talk to investors, they do not have Netflix's level of confidence on the regulatory side. And that was interesting to hear today. Richard's Karen. So are you happier with Netflix? Let's say there were no Warner Brothers deal.
32:39Let's say it were just continue to remain independent. Do you like Netflix now with a combined, let's say they pay up some more from here, which I think they will have to do to close, or would you have preferred old Netflix?
32:55Look, at this price level, Karen, I'm not sure it matters. You know, you've sort of been tagged for, right now you're tagged for doing a large deal. Netflix has never done a large deal. So you're sort of in that deal hell right now or deal limbo. Paying a couple dollars more in the scheme of Netflix. I mean, they just they're going to generate 11 billion dollars of free cash flow, at least in 2026. So I don't think paying a couple dollars more is all is not going to skew this. I think the question is, is does Paramount come out with some, you know, 35, 37? Like, do they just literally go for broke?
33:30And even though it's too much and too overvalued to do it, do it anyway? And I think Netflix will pay any price. So, Karen, I think there is a price where Netflix walks away. I think they really do want this. So I think you're in this position now where Netflix wins within this range of a couple dollars. The stock's going to go up over the next year. They end up losing because of a knockout bid from Paramount stock is going up because it shouldn't be this far down on this process. So I think Netflix ends up being sort of a win win. Which do I prefer? I mean, look, I think from the power that, you know, if you think about sort of the what they can do with Warner Brothers, I think it's hard not to be attracted to the opportunity.
34:11If you think back to Disney and Bob Iger and what he was able to do, he made the acquisition of Lucas, Pixar, and Marvel. And those content acquisitions were transformative. I think of Warner Brothers as sort of being a similar transformative acquisition. Just imagine what Netflix can do with all of that IP over the course of the next decade.
34:33Karen Finerman:Rich, before we started talking about squats, which I'm guessing you're wearing good old-fashioned sweatpants in the gym. I'll do squats with you anytime, Tim. Let's go. Wow. Let's take this offline. No, I think it's great. But the conversation was more about, are some of these headlines that we're seeing out of Netflix, are they dressing for antitrust? Are they dressing for selling the Warner Brothers board? I mean, they're talking about here how excited they are, and we know they are, but about what they're going to do with their theatrical distribution business, for example. So I'm just curious, should investors kind of read through some of this, including the things that we thought were margin negative and know that some of this is window dressing?
35:11Look, we called Ted out on it directly. Ted Sarandos, the co-CEO of Netflix. We called him out in a piece we wrote this morning that he's made very public comments that consumers don't hate movies. They hate having to go to theaters and the long windows. and he's now talking about the fact that they're going to buy Warner Brothers with 45-day windows enacted for all of those Warner Brothers movies. Those obviously seem very much, you know, like they don't make sense when you put them back to back. He literally came out and responded to that question we had on the conference call and said, look, when I made those comments before, we weren't in the theatrical business.
35:48We make this acquisition, we are in the theatrical business, and just like we've evolved on advertising, evolved on live programming, and evolved on sports, We're going to evolve on theatrical. You know, obviously, you know, who knows ultimately what happens? I mean, there is this larger question. Forget about what the window is today, Tim. The larger question is consumer behavior is shifting. Forget Netflix. Forget Warner Brothers. People are going to the movies far less than they used to. Attendance, meaning butts in seats, are down 50 percent from pre-pandemic times, meaning 2019. So whether or not the window stays at 45 days, the whole theatrical business needs to change.
36:25with or without Netflix.
36:27Tim Seymour:Rich, thank you. Thanks, Melissa. Lots and buts in the same segment. I mean, who would have thought? Coming up, we're watching United Airlines after its latest earnings report, the details from those results, and what CEO Scott Kirby has to say about the quarter, the exclusive interview when Fast Money returns.
36:51Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. United Airlines shares are higher by about 3 % after hours. The company posting better than expected earnings for Q4, saying 2026 is off to a strong start. For more on the results, CNBC's Phil LeBeau joins us with United CEO Scott Kirby. Phil. Thank you, Melissa. Scott, Melissa set us up by explaining the results from the fourth quarter where you beat the street. I want to talk about what you're seeing right now. How strong is the demand you've noticed, even in this short three-week window of 2026? Yeah, well, I'll start by saying thank you to the entire United team for a great 2025.
37:24A lot of headwinds in the industry, but we have a no excuses culture at United. We're the only airline in the country that managed to grow EPS year over year. But as we enter 2026, there's really cause for optimism. We're off to a really strong start. Demand is really strong. The last two weeks have been the first and second highest booked revenue weeks in our entire history. But business demand is up well into the double digits. In fact, the five biggest booking days for business in our entire history have all happened within the last two weeks. Demand is off to a really good start. Premium revenue up 9%, basic economy up 7%.
37:59But you've heard the talk of the K-shaped economy. Are you worried about the basic economy consumer, if you will, slowing down or not being able to keep up or showing cracks? Well, you know, at United, we do index more to the premium, to the other leg of the K economy, and that's helped us do well. But we've focused on the entire airplane and the entire cabin and winning share. And we've been winning share. And so our main cabin is not doing as well as premium, but it's still doing pretty well. And so we've been winning share there. And we've been investing in that. Like one of the cool things we just announced this week, we're the only airline in the country that has ovens in coach, and we're going to have hot meals where customers can order in advance in code.
38:39So we've been investing for the entire cabin, and that's paying off with winning customer share across the board. You're also bringing in, what, about 120 aircraft this year? Most of those are going to be single aisle, but you're also bringing in 787 Dreamliners, and you've also converted some of your order for the larger variant of the Dreamliner. Is that a reflection of the fact that you want to up-gauge as much as possible coming out of the U.S.? Well, we are trying to up-gauge, and it is exciting next year. We're going to take about hundred narrow bodies twenty wide bodies that three wide bodies by the way is the most in the u.s.
39:10airline is taking a single year since nineteen eighty eight uh... so we are excited about that growth the updates is seventy seven dash ten you know is really it's somewhat reflective of of uh... a demand environment where we want higher gauge we have limits on our ability to grow in a place like newark only to run one set of parallel runways uh... and getting bigger it was also really just tactical about where we're gonna fly the aircraft so those sort of normal tactical adjustments that we make. The tariff headwind was one that you felt in the first half of the year. All airlines felt it. Are you worried about what you're hearing between the U.S.
39:42and Europe over Greenland and a possible another tariff war? You know, we've spent a decade trying to build a brand loyal airline for customers. That's the best airline in the history of aviation. And what that means is that there's ups and downs all the time. There were a lot, you know, of issues that happened in 2025, and yet the team had no excuses culture and still delivery. You build a brand loyal airline like that, you can kind of get through these events that are going to happen. That's just part of our business. As I look at the full year, our guidance, we also guide conservatively. And even with this, our guidance is probably more conservative than normal as we had in the year.
40:19And you're still expecting a record year, potentially profit-wise. Yeah, we are expecting it. Certainly if demand continues anywhere close to what it is now, our guidance will appear conservatively. Quickly on the corporate side, If there is a tariff war, does that reflect in corporations saying, let's dial back on travel? You know, it can, but it tends to be short-lived. So, you know, Liberation Day last year, you know, we had a few weeks where bookings kind of pulled back, particularly from corporate. But it was only a few weeks when they started recovering again. And so these things tend to have a pretty short impact in the booking window.
40:52And I would guess the same will be true this year. Scott Kirby, CEO of United Airlines. Hey, they're celebrating 100 years. New livery on the plains back here down in Houston. Guys, we'll send it back to you.
41:02Tim Seymour:All right, Phil, thank you. Phil LeBeau with United CEO Scott Kirby. Tim, you like this trade?
41:07Karen Finerman:I like the trade. I like airlines. I like Delta more. I think Delta's a$100 stock in the next 12 months. What I love about what Delta and United are doing is, like, you may not like it as a passenger, but they're extracting money from every part of the cabin. The premium, the front of the bus, the demand that he's talking about, and the margin that's there is extraordinary. They've never been run better. I think airlines are yet to really re-rate from pre-April, where they were starting to re-rate. I think that's a case. The free cash flow yields on these companies are great. It's around 8.5 times forward on United.
41:39Karen Finerman:I think you can own both, but I prefer Delta.
41:41Tim Seymour:Ovens and Coach. That could be a big draw. I like my warm nuts. I don't think they're going to be warming nuts in those ovens in Coach, but that's my guess. You said meals.
41:50Karen Finerman:Do you do it yourself?
41:58I'll say this quickly. Listen, great quarter. I mean, and I would have said this to him. First of all, the videos are great. The safety videos are entertaining as hell. But when you guide the first quarter for$1 to$1.50, why bother? I mean, that to me is like, you know what, full year guidance is what it is. First quarter we're not going to guide. Valuations are always reasonable. The question is, are we sort of at the other end of the spectrum here? If the unemployment rate starts to move, airlines will suffer from that.
42:23Tim Seymour:Coming up, the surge in structure. The biopharma stock on a huge tear this year. The reason for today's move. And can the stock push even higher? More Fast Money in two.
42:40Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. Structure Therapeutics getting another boost today after Guggenheim hiked its price target to$140 from$90 a share. Analysts expecting the biotech company's Phase 3 oral GLP-1 drug and, as it's Phase 1, amylin agonist, both to be commercially successful. The new price target implies a move of more than 50 % higher from today's close. Structure is already up 30 % this year. It is the G in bedang. Exactly. So easy to get. Bedang. At least you follow the rule there. Yes. Well, I was actually, you know, I just first saw just the headline 140. I thought it must be on a, you know, that must be on a takeout expectation or something like that.
43:21This is not what that was. As you said, this is just them getting to, you know, commercial viability and what they think they can do. And I know, Guy, you think this, too. It's not a crazy thought that this is a target that is right for somebody. I know you did the interview with the CEO last week. I have to think his dance card was absolutely full of the JP Morgan conference. And I know he didn't want to say anything about it, but how could it not be? So I do think a takeout is likely, I don't know, possible for sure. If I knew how to jam structure it in my junk, trust me, it would have been there.
43:56But unfortunately, I couldn't do it. With that said, good for Karen for getting it into D-bang or whatever bang is going on. Because it makes a lot of sense. And I do. Six million dollar company. Look, in my opinion, by sometime towards the end of this year, it's a double from here. And the fact that they got through that move to$70 and now there's a proof of concept, this makes them far more valuable now than when they were$20 stock when people were sort of on the fence. So I think it goes higher.
44:23Tim Seymour:You see this go higher. Does that make you think Novo?
44:27Karen Finerman:Well, no. Look, there's an argument that actually it takes the valuations of these others higher, that the addressable market is that much more secure. But, you know, this has been part of the conversation. Is this now getting to a place where you have real players, I should say, players that are able to extend the move that Lillian Novo have had? I'm Long Novo. This doesn't scare me.
44:49Tim Seymour:What if Novo is the buyer? Oh, that's interesting. Yeah, they did try for MetSara very hard and they did not get it. So, yep. Up next, final trades.
45:07Tim Seymour:Time for the final trade on this Tuesday. Let's go around the horn, Tim Seymour.
45:11Karen Finerman:Yeah, we flew around a lot of topics tonight on this desk, but the topic of airlines I think is one that will continue to re-rate. I like Delta. Karen. Yes, Missy, congratulations on your additional show. Thank you. You didn't seem nervous. I think you did an excellent job. She can get through this. I mean, right. So Netflix, I would wait a day or two, but I do like it here. Dan.
45:34Melissa Lee:That little girl's all grown up. You know what I mean? Like, we were all probably on her first show that you hosted. Ever. Ever. All of us. Like, yeah, 18 years ago. Yeah, how about that?
45:44Tim Seymour:Yeah.
45:45Melissa Lee:Intel, I would not chase it into Ernie.
45:48Tim Seymour:Guy. Guy, wait, wait. No potty mouth in the final trade. I didn't say it. We had a lot of potty mouth tonight. Disappointing. Okay. I won't say it. You only have 15 minutes. You got TransOcean. Comes out rigged. All right. Thanks for watching. Fast 20. See you tomorrow on Overtime. Mad Money with Jim Carrey starts right now.
46:33upon as such.
46:34Tim Seymour:To view the full Fast Money Disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com forward slash Fast Money Disclaimer.
46:39Karen Finerman:There's a pill version of Ozempic! Hello, I'm Ozempic, and I'm other GLP-1s kind of like him. Hey, did I hear there's a pill version of Ozempic? Yep, you sure did. Ask your doctor about which FDA-approved uses of the Ozempic pen or pill may be right for you. Call 1-833-OZEMPIC or visit Ozempic.com to view the medication guide and learn more about Ozempic semaglutide tablets, 9 milligrams, and Ozempic semaglutide injection, 2 milligrams.
47:06Melissa Lee:There's a pill version of Ozempic!
From the publisher
Shares of Netflix and United Airlines on the move as the company report results. The latest on the streaming giant’s bid for Warner Brothers Discovery, and what United CEO Scott Kirby has to say about the company’s latest numbers. Plus, the latest out of President Trump’s White House briefing, the surge in Natural gas prices as freezing temperatures hit millions across the U.S., and the stocks that bucked today’s sell-off.
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