In short
Fast Money covers Nvidia’s earnings and stock reaction, SpaceX’s IPO S-1 filing details, then shifts to retail and travel stocks, and ends with a macro segment on falling rates/oil and Fed minutes.
Guests (on-air panelists)
Melissa Lee (host); Tim Seymour, Dan Nathan, Guy Dami, Michael Coe (panel). Guest analyst: Leslie Picker (covers SpaceX filing). Guest analyst: Christina Parts Nevelis (covers Nvidia earnings call). Guest analyst: Chris Rolland (Susquehanna). Macro guest: Mike Schumacher (Wells Fargo Securities). Also referenced: Andrew Ross Sorkin (interview host for Jeff Bezos segment).
Guest backgrounds
Leslie Picker is a reporter analyzing SpaceX’s S-1. Christina Parts Nevelis is a market reporter covering Nvidia’s call. Chris Rolland is an equity analyst at Susquehanna. Mike Schumacher leads macro strategy at Wells Fargo Securities.
Key claims
Nvidia beat revenue, authorized an $80B buyback, kept ~75% gross margin, and reiterated no shipments to China; China impact seen as limited/“one and done.” SpaceX S-1 shows ~$29B long-term debt and Q1 2026 CapEx ~$10B, with Elon Musk ~12.3% ownership; lockups use conditional “drip” releases tied to stock price. Rates rally is attributed mainly to oil pulling back; oil remains a key driver.
Notable examples
SpaceX capitalization/debt and CapEx breakdown; Nvidia edge computing categories (gaming, pro visuals, robotics); retail: Target raised outlook but shares fell; TJX rose; airlines rallied as oil fell; Intuit planned ~17% workforce cut; Elf Beauty rose after earnings.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Chapters
Tap a time to open that second in VOSpaceX IPO Insights
1:43 to 3:15
Explore the latest details on SpaceX's IPO filing and its implications.
“We will get to NVIDIA in just a second, but we start with that long, long-awaited IPO filing from SpaceX.”
Investor Sentiment on SpaceX
3:16 to 4:48
Delve into investor expectations and perceptions surrounding SpaceX.
“I think a lot of investors are excited about this, right?”
NVIDIA's Earnings Report
4:49 to 8:02
Analyzing NVIDIA's latest earnings and market reactions.
“Well, it's beyond is I mean, that really covers everything at that point.”
Market Reactions to NVIDIA
8:03 to 14:00
Discussing the implications of NVIDIA's earnings on the stock market and options.
“We'll get back to Leslie as she's coming through that S1, maybe running it through Gemini.”
Options Action and NVIDIA's Performance
14:00 to 21:48
Learn about the options market's behavior and NVIDIA's recent performance amid AI investments.
“Mike, I'm wondering what the what the options action has been like leading up to this moment.”
Retail Earnings Reports Overview
21:48 to 28:00
Explore the impact of recent retail earnings reports from Target and TJX on the market.
“Mark is probably going to look through a lot of this stuff right now.”
Travel Stocks React to Geopolitical News
28:55 to 29:49
Discover how President Trump's comments impacted travel stocks positively.
“WTAG crew dropping after President Trump's suggestion that the Iran war will end very quickly.”
Airline Stocks and Oil Prices Analysis
29:56 to 31:07
Analyze the relationship between airline stocks and fluctuating oil prices.
“Yeah, I think the oil trade has a ways to go.”
Upcoming Market Insights
31:11 to 31:38
Get a preview of upcoming discussions on stock performance and yields.
“Love the way you slid that would you rather in there.”
Market Rates and Oil's Role
31:42 to 33:49
Understand how oil prices influence market rates and investor sentiment.
“A top market strategist will join us next to help break it all down.”
Show all 19 chapters
Global Debt and Investment Strategies
33:51 to 34:50
Examine the implications of rising global debt on investment strategies.
“I think they probably sort of want to hike, but they're not terribly comfortable.”
Equities vs. Oil Price Risks
34:54 to 37:49
Explore the risk of underestimating oil prices in equity markets.
“And you think about when the year began, I would say people generally believe there'd be a lot of issuance, but not this volume.”
SpaceX IPO Structuring Insights
37:50 to 38:47
Discover the novel structuring of SpaceX's IPO lockup period.
“I also think rates are going higher because I don't think the energy trade is over.”
Market Effects of SpaceX's IPO
38:49 to 42:06
Learn about the potential market effects of SpaceX's IPO and investor behavior.
“Basically, they say kind of the second full trading day on NASDAQ immediately following the public release of our quarterly financial results.”
Investing Perspectives on SpaceX and Tesla
42:06 to 43:11
Discussion on the relationship between SpaceX and Tesla investments.
“Well, one of the things that's going to be ATM'd is what Dan was talking about at the outset of the show, which was that, you know, presumably a lot of the people that are investing in SpaceX are investing in Elon.”
Jeff Bezos on AI and Labor Market Concerns
43:11 to 44:10
Jeff Bezos discusses the impact of AI on jobs and the economy.
“What he had to say about AI's role in the labor market, the details when Fast Money returns.”
Connecting AI Productivity to Labor Shortages
44:10 to 45:00
Exploration of how AI-driven productivity may affect workforce dynamics.
“Maybe now we're just in a sort of transition period where we're seeing job losses or maybe it's AI washing.”
Insights from NVIDIA's Conference Call
45:00 to 46:21
Analysis of key points from NVIDIA's conference call regarding chip pricing and market outlook.
“Getting some more details out of NVIDIA's conference call, let's get back to Christina Parts Nevelis.”
Market Strategies and Final Trades Discussion
46:21 to 47:16
Participants discuss market strategies and share final trade recommendations.
“I'll go back to what Chris Rollin told us, and that is that ARM makes a very competitive CPU.”
Transcript
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0:31Karen Finerman:Never bet against American grit or American energy. Through innovation, Venture Global is not only building some of the largest energy facilities in the world right here in the United States, but delivering American energy at a fraction of the cost and a fraction of the time. So while others are busy talking, we're busy building. That's venture global. That's unstoppable energy.
1:01Tim Seymour:Live in the Nasdaq markets, I did in the heart of New York City's Times Square. This is Fast Money. Here's what's on tap tonight. NVIDIA in focus. Shares of the AI giant seesawing after earnings. We are bringing you all the numbers from the quarter, diving into the details of the trade. And countdown to liftoff. SpaceX officially filing to go public tonight. What we know now about the Blockbuster IPO and the other behemoths waiting in the wings to hit the market. Plus, rates pull back after their recent rally. Two retailers move in vastly different directions after their earnings. And airline stocks flying.
1:32Tim Seymour:What's behind today's boost to the travel trade? And can the gains keep coming? I'm Melissa Lee, coming to you live from the studio via the NASDAQ. On the desk tonight, Tim Seymour, Dan Nathan, Guy Dami, and Michael Coe. We will get to NVIDIA in just a second, but we start with that long, long-awaited IPO filing from SpaceX. Leslie Picker has been picking through the document, has the latest details on it. Leslie. I probably should have put it through Grok, but I'm doing it myself, Melissa. And I just wanted to share a couple more details that we've learned from this multiple hundreds of pages of filing here.
2:04First of all, we're looking at$29 billion in long-term debt in terms of the capitalization here. Total CapEx had some kind of interesting details showing about$10 billion in total in the first quarter of 2026. A billion of that was for space, about a billion three for connectivity and seven point seven billion dollars of that first quarter CapEx was due to A.I. Also looking at some some shareholder ownership here, it appears that Elon Musk owns about twelve point three percent. Antonio Gracias has about seven point three percent. The rest of those details will fill in a bit closer to when this company starts its roadshow.
2:46We talked about last hour the banks that were managing this offering. I also see that in addition to Goldman leading, having that lead left position, which often involves allocation and pricing and valuation and so forth, Morgan Stanley is listed in this filing as the stabilization agent. And they're also running the directed share program. So we continue to dig in. There is a lot of information here, and we will continue to bring you the latest, guys.
3:13Tim Seymour:OK, Leslie, thanks. Keep us posted there. Again, it's going to list on the NASDAQ SPCX dual class shares. That's not a surprise. What are you looking for? I think a lot of investors are excited about this, right? I expect a lot of cash to come out of Tesla. We've been talking about that for a while. If you want to bet on Elon Musk, it's the way to do it. I think the XAI and the money losing there is important in the near term. But I think a lot of what this company is going to be built on is on the back of that and those investments. One of the things that's interesting, though, when you look at the filing, you know, Starlink revenue was probably 75 percent of 2025 revenue.
3:46But it's only about 50 percent of the implied value there. So at some point, you're going to see whatever the space stuff is ramp. And, you know, if they ever get the spend down on XII, it's going to obviously have a larger contribution. So, again, there's so many moving parts on this one. It's going to be a really interesting one. I don't think the street is going to be too particular about a lot of those metrics. I think they're going to be all in because this is one of the first really interesting stories to come to market in a very long time.
4:12Karen Finerman:You know, it's interesting after kind of the courtroom drama. It does seem as if XAI might be treated as with a discount, when in fact it may be quite the opposite. I think this is what Dan's saying, at least in terms of the opportunity here. I think the opportunity at XAI, at least given where other cops are, and again, not totally knowing how the different pieces and the sum of the parts are adding up here, I think it makes it interesting. I do think, you know, record IPO, I do believe there are a lot of folks that believe this to be a holding company for all that they want to own for tomorrow.
4:43Karen Finerman:And they're willing to override valuation. Boy, isn't that consistent with Elon Musk companies.
4:48Tim Seymour:Yeah. Mike and I were just talking the last hour because this thing just crossed, you know, like 15 minutes ago, that a lot of this is is sort of the the Elon Musk magic of promise the future. Right. And so within the filing, it says SpaceX, SpaceX expects space efforts to catalyze transformative breakthroughs that could reshape terrestrial industries and lead to the emergence of new trillion dollar markets on the moon, Mars and beyond. Oh, boy. So talk about promising. Well, it's beyond is I mean, that really covers everything at that point. But that's the kind of investor that will be attracted to this filing.
5:24And they've been attracted to Tesla, now a trillion and a half dollar company. Yeah, he makes outlandish remarks a lot of times that come to fruition. Sometimes not so much, but the market rewards him for that. I think amongst the many winners here, the Nasdaq is a big winner here as well. Congratulations to them because the stock is being listed here. You know, it's interesting. I had a conversation last week with a brilliant VC investor. His name is Shaheen Farshi from Lux Capital. They're early space investors. And he said he made a really good analogy to what's going on here with space. He said, you know, 25 years ago, 30 years ago, people used to call it the Internet economy.
6:00Now it's just the economy. And when you think about space, he's like space and the stuff that goes into it is going to touch everything. And in 20 years from now, it's going to be the economy. Right. When you think about how many different businesses are going to be, you know, kind of intertwined. And I think that's an interesting way to think about it. And I think that you saw that Antonio Gracias, he's a investor and look at the shareholder he is. he's been there the whole time. And I think a lot of these folks who have these sorts of visions, this is what they see. They're not looking five, seven years out if you're a VC.
6:26These people are looking 30 years out.
6:28Tim Seymour:If you were an investor, Mike Coe, though, I mean, would you be an investor, I guess, is the first question. In small size, why not? Because I think you're backstopped by a lot of people who have tremendous enthusiasm, basically, for this whole area and for Elon Musk specifically. You know, Guy was pointing out that he has promised the moon and the stars forever in a lot of his other enterprises. And sometimes those didn't get delivered on time, but a lot of them did end up getting delivered. I mean, it would be a very difficult thing to imagine starting a car company from scratch, starting an EV company from scratch, starting it in California and making it profitable, making it the only one that was profitable in the country selling EVs.
7:07So that kind of performance, even if it did come a little overdue, is the kind of thing that people are betting on when they're betting on Elon Musk. And they're not looking for the valuations because if they were, Tesla wouldn't trade where it is, and we wouldn't be looking at an IPO of the size.
7:21Tim Seymour:And you've got to accept the bumps in the road that come along with it on that journey, because we've seen plenty when it comes to Tesla, not just the ups and downs of the business cycle, but the ups and downs of Elon Musk himself in his personal life, as well as the statements that he makes in relationship to the companies he governs.
7:39Karen Finerman:You know, funding secured. I mean, we all remember that headline. And there's been a whole lot of ones that no one gets the benefit of the doubt more than Elon. No one probably deserves it more in terms of adding and creating value literally out of thin air. I think the market's learning at a discount. A lot of the rhetoric comes out, which is probably a good thing at this point. Five years ago, it's a much different conversation than today.
8:02Tim Seymour:Yeah. All right. We'll get back to Leslie as she's coming through that S1, maybe running it through Gemini. We'll see what that would turn out. We'll keep you posted. So let's turn out to NVIDIA's latest earnings report. Shares of the chip giant were really seesawing in the after hours upon the release, going up as high as a percent. It is now down by just about a percent. Beating on revenues, authorizing an$80 billion stock buyback. The call kicked off top of the hour. Christina Parts Nevelis has been all over it, Christina. Yeah, the call is underway right now. The CFO is speaking, providing the same commentary that was just released.
8:33She's also breaking down how the businesses are going to be changing data center revenue and then edge computing. Edge computing will be composed of gaming, pro visuals, robotics as well. And I wonder if that's almost a marketing strategy. It's a smaller subset. And so when you start to see growth there, like, let's say, 30%, 40%, you can go with that. If data center revenue is just, you know, continuing at a flatter growth rate. In regards to just the buyback, that's substantial. The buyback,$80 billion. And to go from$0.01 dividend to$0.25 dividend maybe tells the market, too, that there's some confidence in their future cash flows and just sustainability in cash flow.
9:09The OPEX, the operating expenses, did increase 42 % year over year because of compensation as well as R &D. The CFO reiterated there's been no shipments to China, even though we heard from Jensen Wang at GTC saying that there were Chinese orders. So I'm sure that she's going to explain what happened during that time frame.
9:25Tim Seymour:There could be orders without them shipping. Without the shipments. But he was very, I spoke to him myself, he was very confident they were going underway, that they had revenue coming in from that. He told an entire audience, and then I asked him again in the hallway. So something happened between mid-March to end of April during that time frame coming from the Chinese government side to stop it. And so just in regards to just the signaling, too, they also had in the notes, too, or the comments, I should say, they secured inventory and capacity, which is another strength for those concerned about memory prices and how it would impact NVIDIA.
9:57NVIDIA is able to secure things one to three years or even longer compared to a lot of other companies. Yeah.
10:05Tim Seymour:The stock is down one and a half percent. I feel like it is the victim of its own success in some ways. It's raised the bar every single quarter. It's done quite well every single quarter in relationship to consensus estimates. Stock doesn't respond to that much anymore.
10:19Karen Finerman:Well, maybe that's good news. And so we've seen kind of the progression of the beat or it's been a massive beat and raise typically for the last two and a half years. But in 2024, what we saw is that that outperformance actually led to the stock outperformance in the aftermarket. The last three quarters, actually, I think we're kind of minus four, minus four, minus eight. The fact that we're kind of flat here does like the numbers that had to be there. Gross margin at 75 percent, up about 340 basis. Once in line sequential, you know, it's flat quarter over quarter, but kind of in line. I still think that the China dynamics around H200 are the big deal.
10:56Karen Finerman:And there are at least headlines out here that they're still not sure they're going to be allowed into China, even though we all came off the jet and felt like we were ready to roll.
11:06Tim Seymour:Does it matter? I mean, there's nothing there. There's no China in any of the forecasts, any of the consensus estimates.
11:11Karen Finerman:So and they make that clear, too. And that's great. And that's why I think this is probably upside. And I think that's why we felt that once, you know, Jensen was picked up in Alaska, that this was a good sign for the stock and that the stock actually started to rally. Yeah, but I hope he got air miles because he didn't get anything out of that thing. He went over there. Just for half the trip. All right. So he got like 7 ,000 miles. But the one thing I'll say is while he was over there, China put their gaming chip on a blacklist. I mean, like, you know, this was, again, disappointing on so many different levels.
11:42I think the good news about the China stuff, it would be only incremental if there was anything that came through. Last year at this time, I think they took a charge against some of the inventory that they couldn't sell over there. And so, you know, on the buyback thing, we talked about it a little bit last night. I mean, there was a Wall Street Journal article talking about mega cap tech and their kind of lack of buybacks. They're using a lot of their free cash flow to buy back stock. You know, this$80 billion, I mean, they had$95 billion in free cash flow last year. This is going to be spaced out over a period of time.
12:09I cannot imagine they're buying the stock up here. But it's about one and a half percent of their$5.4 trillion market cap. So that's not something I think investors, you know, are going to get behind right here. We are fortunate to have Christina on the beat. We're going to let her go, though, because there's a conference call. She's got to go listen to the conference call. I don't want to leave, but yes, okay. You'll be back. You'll be back. You'll be back. Dan's point about the buyback, I think, is spot on. It's a big number, yes, but in the context of a$5.5 trillion company, not so much. However, you've got to give them credit where credit's due.
12:38They continue to beat top line and bottom line, which is extraordinary, and they continue to guide higher. Percentage-wise, in terms of the guides, less robust than they've been historically, but the absolute numbers are huge. What I'm most impressed by continues to be the fact that after beginning, I think, the first quarter last year, when margins decelerated and they told us in the second half they'd pick back up. That's what's happened. And they've maintained the 75 percent gross margins in the face of some competition, but some other factors as well. Good for them.
13:06Karen Finerman:I also think that a buyback and a div, which we're all acknowledging, means very little in terms of market cap on a relative basis, is a sign possibly of some fiscal discipline. It is a sign that they're not pouring all kinds of money into CapEx or becoming even more vertically integrated. I mean, this is this is another big issue with NVIDIA over the last year and a half. It's been more about the other businesses that they're buying into or the other piece of kind of them becoming the AI infrastructure trade. The fact that also that Rubin will be shipping second half fiscal is positive that they're reiterating that they're not affected by global supply chain for now.
13:41Karen Finerman:So, again, with a relatively muted stock reaction here so far, I call this a win.
13:48Tim Seymour:I'm getting some more detail about the revenue diversification or lack thereof. More than half of its revenue in the quarter came from three customers representing 21 percent, 17 percent and 16 percent of total revenue in the quarter. Mike, I'm wondering what the what the options action has been like leading up to this moment. Yeah, I mean, it's a great question. Well, first of all, you just mentioned those three customers when Tim was talking about CapEx. Obviously, when we think about the CapEx that's going on in the AI trade, it's going to NVIDIA, not out of it. They're the recipients of the CapEx largesse.
14:20That's basically what the whole trade is about. The options market was behaving a lot like the stock is now. So it was implying a move of just over 5 % as we were coming into the print. On Monday, the options market got net shorter by about a billion dollars, not huge relative to the overall size of the company. The last two days, so Tuesday and today, also was very similar. So somewhat muted volumes, huge, of course, compared to almost every other stock, but relatively muted compared to its own volume. I think it traded about 3 million contracts today, calls out pacing puts by about 2 to 1. There was a big near-dated call spread, about 50 ,000 contracts went up that way.
14:59But it does seem like the options market's expectation is we're just not going to get the big moves one way or the other. And, you know, premiums coming out of it. When you think about that customer concentration, and Tim just kind of spoke to this a little bit, right? So all the investments they've made, also using that free cash flow,$60 billion over the last two years. Where did it go to? All right, well, you know where it went to. It went to XAI. It went to Anthropic. It went to CoreWeave, Nebius, Cohere. I mean, the list goes on and on. every single one of those companies are their customers, but they're not even in the top three, right?
15:31So how do you keep them going? How do you get them into that CUDA sort of ecosystem and keep them locked in? So you could say that's a great use of$60 billion over the last two years rather than buying back their stock at these sorts of levels because it's not doing a whole heck of a lot for them to buy back$80 billion worth of stock up here.
15:46Tim Seymour:For more on the quarter, Susquehanna's Chris Rolland joins us now. Chris, what did you make of the quarter and how does that That's a stack up to how the stock is moving in the after our session, which is right now down about a percent. Fantastic quarter, be it our number by to be the guide by for be. This was actually a nicer quarter than they typically put up. So, you know, I give it right now an A minus. We have the rest of the call to go. But this is a solid report. I mean, down one percent is not a minus. So I'm just wondering, and you can replay this quarter after quarter after quarter at this point where they put up good numbers and the stock reaction doesn't necessarily reflect what all the analysts are telling us about how the quarter actually was.
16:37Tim Seymour:So why do you think that is at this point? Yeah, I mean, buy side expectations probably got a little bit ahead of themselves. And we're also talking about the largest market cap company in the world. And just finding new flows to put into this name gets difficult when we're talking about the law of large numbers here. So there are some technicals beyond this report that might be playing in here. But the report itself is really solid. Solid gross margin, solid OPEX numbers. So really across the board here, we thought it was a good report. You know, Chris, your price target 275 suggests you believe, and probably correctly, by the way, that they deserve a valuation that they haven't been, in terms of price to earnings, that they haven't really been granted for a while.
17:24Can you walk us through that? Yeah. I mean, of all the AI names out there, NVIDIA is the cheapest. Again, we have this law of large numbers problem, maybe putting a cap on that multiple. But we think it at least deserves a 30 times multiple. And it's trading in the 20s to get to get to our price target. We'd be at just 30 for next year. So, you know, we we think among the A.I.
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17:52Karen Finerman:names, it really is the cheapest. So, Chris, then what do you do? What do you do with the valuation and certainly the upside on China, especially as we just discussed, not really in these numbers? There seems to be a fog that might be lifting somewhat, at least in a part of their business, that could be significant. And at least those are the headlines last week. What does China do to your multiple? It does very little, only because AMD has already gone through this. They were able to ship again to China last quarter. It seemed to be a one and done. And we would expect something similar, perhaps, for NVIDIA as well.
18:31I know there's some confusion as to why they're not shipping. We have heard that it's not necessarily a CCP ban, but rather a provincial ban on NVIDIA GPUs that might be playing in here. But we would think it would probably be something like a one and done or a small contributor, perhaps, to upside moving forward. Chris, how should we think about margins? You just mentioned it, you know, fiscal 25, there were 75 percent ish and they saw a downtick to 71 and a half percent fiscal 26. Now they just put up a 75 percent number. That's basically the expectation for the balance of the year. What would be some of the things that would put pressure on it?
19:11And would that be something that you'd start to rethink that 275 price target if you did start to see more competition leading to pressure? Yeah, that's it's a great question. I think memory prices, as they continue to climb here, NVIDIA is going to have a hard time essentially quadrupling the prices that they're getting for that memory and passing that along. So we would expect, as memory prices continue to climb, and it's a large part of the bill of materials on these GPUs, we would expect gross margin, as NVIDIA does not make memory, we would expect their gross margins to decline on those memory price increases.
19:57I don't know how investors are going to react to this. I think they'll probably look through it. The gross profit dollars still should continue to climb for NVIDIA, but gross margins could, in fact, come down over time.
20:12Tim Seymour:We're seeing some commentary across the wires, Chris, from the CFO about Vera Rubin, saying that the Vera CPU opens a new$200 billion markets. They are expecting$20 billion in CPU revenues this year. They are on track to start production shipments of Rubin in the second half of the year. Is that all on track for you? It is. I think we've talked about this before, Melissa, with ARM holdings, for example. We are in a CPU renaissance right now with Gentic AI. The only issue for NVIDIA is they're going to want that 75 % gross margin on their CPUs. Guys like ARM are actually going to have a chip out with probably 40 % gross margin on their own chips.
21:00I think people, if they're really just looking to do agentic AI on a CPU, they might favor ARM their own chips as opposed to NVIDIA. But this is a new opportunity for them for sure.
21:14Tim Seymour:All right. So basically, they would choose on price. They would choose on price. There's not a huge difference in performance, in our opinion. All right. That would be a headwind. Chris, thank you. Keep us posting all the details as they come from the call. Chris Rowland of Susquehanna. That is a good point. We are seeing the stock down by a little bit more than a percent at this point. Well, what you speak to is the inevitable competition that's going to come and what it does to margins and prices, which all makes sense, which is something, by the way, I thought was going to happen a long time ago.
21:44It has not yet. Now, maybe this is a glimpse of what the future holds. But again, he just said it. Mark is probably going to look through a lot of this stuff right now.
21:52Tim Seymour:All right. Coming up, the real read from retail. What we are hearing out of Target and TJX in the latest earnings reports. What to expect from Walmart tomorrow. Plus, drop oil prices. The drop in oil prices, fueling the travel trade. All the stocks taking flight. And weather, it's all smooth skies and calm seas ahead. For the group, do not go anywhere. Fast Money is back in two.
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23:32Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money 2, retail heavyweights moving in different directions after earnings this morning. Target, beating top and bottom line expectations, raising its full year sales outlook. Same-store sales jumped 5.6 percent, the first positive number in five quarters. Still, shares were down almost 4 percent. TGX, meantime, jumping over 5 percent after reporting better than expected earnings for its Q1. Management saying the buying environment for quality branded merchandising remains outstanding. Those shares are having its best day since 2024. All of this, of course, ahead of Walmart's report tomorrow morning.
24:04Tim Seymour:Those shares hit our record yesterday, but we're down 2.5 % today. I mean, part of why Target turned around was a commentary from the CEO saying, you know, they're not going to have the tailwind of the tax refunds anymore. It's going to be a little bit more of a difficult environment. Yeah, which I think we all expect. I think that's reasonable. The valuation suggests that maybe that's going to create a little bit of a headwind, but Walmart's a tech company. And I think that's why they're given the valuation that they're given. I expect great things out of Walmart. Maybe it's run too much in earnings.
24:33We just made a new all-time high. But as we've said many times on this show, you don't run away. I'll say this quickly. Good for Target. I've been a hater for a while. It's right about 50 % off the recent lows, which is extraordinary. But they finally got their inventories in line. Just look at that inventory number against sales. So at least they're finally doing something right.
24:50Tim Seymour:It does seem like there is traction to this turnaround story at this point.
24:54Karen Finerman:There's no question, especially on the merchandise front. And also just some big changes in the ranks. A lot of people thought this was going to be more of a status quo continuation. In fact, there's been some aggressive shakeup in the C-suite. I think the market likes it. I was surprised at this. I'm buying weakness. But, of course, this is the T and Timbo.
25:12Tim Seymour:Yeah. Yeah, of course it is. Everybody knows that. Except Tim, who, I mean, last week forgot what the T and Timbo was. Did you really forget? No, I thought you didn't know what the I was or something like that. I'm not sure what the I is either. Intel, maybe? No, it's iDevo, my ETF.
25:28Karen Finerman:But it's the B. I didn't remember. Oh, that's right.
25:32Tim Seymour:No one else did either. Micah, where do you go in retail? Yeah, I mean, it was interesting. So both Target and TJX saw very heavy options volume on the back of those two respective reports and kind of consistent with the stock price action. TJX did see its bullish bets outpacing its bearish ones by about 20%. But interestingly, in Target's case, some of the bigger prints that I saw were some sales of some downside puts. So is that a hugely bullish bet? No, but what it is doing is drawing a line in the sand and saying, you know what, I think this thing has been beaten up enough, and people are looking to start dipping their toe in the water.
26:07Yeah, talk about beaten up enough. Look at Nike. I mean, this thing had a day today for really no good reason. Obviously, a lot of retail stocks or apparel names did rally today, and this is one where, you know, Tim just mentioned turnarounds. I mean, this could be in the very early stages, or not just because the stock was up today, but looks a bit washed out. Maybe it gets a little tailwind into the World Cup that's coming next month. So again, Nike looks It's pretty washed out. You can't wait for the World Cup. Can't wait. Are you kidding me? Riveted. Who's your favorite team? Ecuador. The Cosmos?
26:35Tim Seymour:Did you just blurt out a random country? Of course I did. I don't even know if they're in it, but they should be. Miles is so disappointed that Italy didn't make it. Italy, it's a joke. How is Italy not in the freaking World Cup? There's a lot more fast money to come. Here's what's coming up next.
26:49Karen Finerman:Oil prices pulling back today. Why, that could mean it's time to pack your bags. The moves across the travel trade that are catching our eyes today. Plus, stocks rallying as the interest rate rally cools, why yields are retreating, and what the latest Fed Minutes tell us about the central bank's next move. You're watching Fast Money, live from the NASDAQ market site in Times Square. We're back right after this.
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28:51Tim Seymour:Bank of America and a member FDSP. Welcome back to Fast Money. WTAG crew dropping after President Trump's suggestion that the Iran war will end very quickly. That move giving travel stocks a pop. Cruise lines, Airbnb, be online booking sites all ending the day in the green. Take a look at the airlines. Delta having its best day since last July. United, American, JetBlue, Southwest also seeing outsized gains. I mean, it feels like oil down, these stocks up. It's very reactive at this point.
29:19Karen Finerman:Very reactive. But the re-rating that's been slowly going on in the airline sector is something that I believe is a trend. And I believe we're getting the kind of numbers out of these folks, but United and Delta specifically. I don't think you are going to see oil prices necessarily down tomorrow. You might. But the point is, we're still in an environment where this is a trade. Airlines have historically been some of the greatest trading stocks, except for I think you're supposed to own Delta for the long term. OAH made a multi-year high today, closed on change. But the fact that it hangs in there in the wake of oil going lower today speaks at least tells me that the oil trade is far from over.
29:56We've been saying that for a while.
29:57Tim Seymour:Yeah. Mike. Yeah, I think the oil trade has a ways to go. There's just too much slack that was taken up out of the logistics, out of the supply chain for oil as a result of the, you know, constrictions that we've seen in the straight. And it's going to take a while for that to rebound. One thing that did surprise me a little bit on the airline trade was that Delta had been given the benefit of the doubt because, of course, they own the refinery that they bought back in 2012 from Phillips 66. And so they were better positioned to accommodate higher oil prices. and more importantly, a wider crack spread.
30:30And yet they were the second best performing airline today. I'm kind of surprised that some of the more beaten up names didn't catch a better bid in, say, for example, the Jets ETF.
30:40Tim Seymour:What would you rather be in at this point, oil itself, the commodity or oil equities?
30:47Karen Finerman:Oil equities. And a guy's point on the outperformance of the OIH to the XLE today was notable. I mean, this is a day when it was a negative oil story. But the re-rating going on, and I'm happy to just be long SLB because I think that's 60 percent of the OIH. And certainly look at the long-term chart on that. Look back where we were in 2015 and 16 and look at the earnings power of this company and the operational levers they have at a time when people are going to be drilling everywhere. So I think you stay long there. Love the way you slid that would you rather in there. Unfortunately, I have to agree with Tim on this one.
31:20Why unfortunately? Because sometimes it's better television if I said, you know what, Tim is wrong. No, no, but it's always about what you actually feel. It's not about playing for the audience. But we don't do that here. We don't do that here.
31:32Karen Finerman:They do that on other shows. I agree with Tim. Okay.
31:35Tim Seymour:Coming up, stocks jump and rates drop. What is behind today's pullback and yields? What we heard out of the Fed minutes that may shine some light on the central bank's next move. A top market strategist will join us next to help break it all down. Fast Money is back in two.
31:49Karen Finerman:Missed a moment of fast? Catch us anytime on the go. Follow the Fast Money Podcast. We're back right after this.
32:01Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. Stocks are rallying as both rates and oil prices pull back. The Dow jumping 645 points. The S &P 500 up 1%. The Nasdaq leading the gains, climbing more than 1.5%. Benchmark 10-year yield back below 4.6%. WTI crude falling nearly 6%, settling below$100 for the first time since May 11th. And some more after hours action shares of Elf Beauty higher after topping earnings and revenue estimates. The company also saying it will walk back some tariff price increases amid high gas prices and consumers are, quote, suffering. And tax software maker Intuit dropping after missing revenue expectations.
32:37Tim Seymour:The company also planning to cut its workforce by about 17 percent as it deals with slower growth. By the way, don't miss Jim Cramer's exclusive interview with the CEO of Intuit. That is tonight on Mad Money, top of the hour. Let's get some more on the move in rates now with Mike Schumacher, head of macro strategy at Wells Fargo Securities. Mike, it's always good to see you. Great to be here. It seemed like 4.68 percent. That was like a cap. Do you think we're going to stay within a range that is below that?
33:05Karen Finerman:Honestly, it's all about oil. You look at the move, not so much yesterday, but today. Today was clearly an oil move. There's no doubt about it. Yesterday was really a global, I'd say, case of indigestion for bonds, UK, US, Japan, you name it. But today, things tracked oil really well. Basic rule of thumb is if oil moves 1%, bond yields move about a basis point, something like that. Pretty simple. It's been reliable. Michael, we mentioned and Guy's been particularly worked up about Japan and JGB yields. But, you know, last week was, to me, a seminal week for the BOJ. And it seems like I coined it.
33:38Karen Finerman:It was their 2021 Fed moment when it was obvious how far behind the curve they are. Do you believe that? And do you believe that independent of your view on treasuries, JGB yields will trade on their own? And is that OK? They're in a tough spot. I think they probably sort of want to hike, but they're not terribly comfortable. And they are clearly behind, in my opinion. So I suspect they'll get off the dime fairly soon. But right now, questionable. You saw the Besson Ueda back and forth. And Besson didn't really radiate confidence either. So I think the BOJ is in a tough spot right now. Mike, you mentioned oil being a catalyst.
34:12I agree. I think that's part of it. But global debt now, everybody seems to be talking about. That's the other side of this. And that's not going away anytime soon. So I know you're not discounting it, but the importance vis-a-vis oil.
34:22Karen Finerman:No, it's a good point, Guy. You think about the feedback loop, right? We've got all this military spending going on. You've got countries like the U.S. seriously indebted, others that are going to spend a lot more. And when you think about the price of 10-year Treasury issuance effectively going up, up, up, or 20-year, not today, but generally, that's a problem. So that can kind of feed on itself after a while. So I think that's a good point to raise also. So, Michael, is there any focus in the investment grade space where we see, you know, a lot of the AI infrastructure? It's increasingly more debt.
34:50It's increasingly kind of these interesting sort of structures here. And I'm just curious, like how you think about that, because there's a lot of debt that needs to be rolled over just both sovereign and corporate debt.
34:59Karen Finerman:I think it's a huge point. And you think about when the year began, I would say people generally believe there'd be a lot of issuance, but not this volume. And we could make the case, hey, they're all high quality issuers, really. So it's pretty fungible if you think about government debt. There's a limited universe of buyers. I think that's really starting to wait. And you've got hyperscalers going to market after market. It's not all USD. It's global. So in my view, this is a trend that's going to be in place for probably another six to 12 months. And it's just out there weighing, especially on long-term debt.
35:28Karen Finerman:Not two or three year, but 10, 20, 30 year, that sort of thing. Can I follow up for a sec? So you saw that Google deal. So they're selling debt in Switzerland and francs and here and there and everywhere they can do. What does that mean to you? Like we've seen this before, but not in a while. I think you want to tap every investor base you can tap when you've got to do just massive issuance. So if there are some investors who say, yeah, I've got a big preference for Swiss francs or for euros or what have you, why not hit those currencies? And if you're Google, you can always swap back if you want.
36:00Karen Finerman:But some investors simply will not go overseas. So why not bring it to them?
36:05Tim Seymour:You said oil is the driver to a lot of things, maybe everything in the markets. Do you think equity investors are underpricing the risk that oil remains higher for longer? I do.
36:17Karen Finerman:And I think the issue here is that let's say there were all these stories going back and forth about potentially a deal between Iran and the U.S. And we've all heard this about a dozen times. But if something were to kick in overnight, how quickly would this trade reopen? probably a month or two or three. And then you've got a lot of legs in the system after that. So I'm going to guess you've got probably four or five months until inflation looks relatively tolerable, even if things start to go well pretty quickly. That's a long time. That's a lot of inflation. It's a lot of market upset. If equity investors or anybody else want help from the central banks, well, they're not going to get it.
36:52Karen Finerman:So if you're counting on a FedEase, you can kind of forget about that in that particular environment. Yes, I think it's underpriced.
36:59Tim Seymour:But I mean, I'm just you know, every single person who's bullish on the markets, which is a lot of people out there right now, that seems to be the consensus view is that the earnings growth is there. And so therefore, you stay long the markets and it doesn't matter what the rest of the world does. The earnings growth is there. How do you how do you reconcile that notion that we're underpricing the risk of higher oil and yet the earnings growth is there? And so you want to be with the market.
37:20Karen Finerman:Yeah, the earnings growth has been amazing. And last quarter was terrific. No question about it. But still, you've got to think about it in broad terms and say, all right, I get a lot of people stay in kind of an equity bunker. Maybe don't look at bonds that much. But still, at some point, there has to be a cross-market evaluation. And if rates go up, up, up, and if inflation sticks, that can't be a positive. So is it today? Maybe not. But can that weigh in the equity market? I think it probably could. So I do think this risk is underpriced out there.
37:47Tim Seymour:Michael, great to see you, as always. Michael Schumacher. What do you think? I think his points are great. I also think rates are going higher because I don't think the energy trade is over. I think it's going to vacillate. And I think once the – listen, there's no coincidence that yields trade at 4.6.8 and the administration all of a sudden were people talking about this ceasefire or peace plan. I mean, that seems to be sort of de rigueur, as the French say. But at a certain point, the markets look past that, and I think rates go higher from here.
38:12Karen Finerman:Yeah, look, it's been a tough year if you've been a bond investor. And it's been a tough year on a couple different fronts, even though the spreads, for the most part, are still very tight and near where they were. I think this is a great opportunity for people to be looking at prefs, especially in some places that you get some spread widening, especially when you have this kind of interest rate volatility. I realize that's somewhat deep end of the pool, but there's some really interesting opportunities where you're looking 7%, 8%, 9%. And this is a great time to start looking.
38:35Tim Seymour:We've got some more from the SpaceX filing. Let's get to Leslie Picker for that. Les. Hey, Mel. Yeah, we've come across some really interesting structuring of the lockup. The way that they have structured it basically has kind of a drip drip. Rather than subjecting everybody to 180 day lockup period, which is common in IPOs, they have a bunch of conditions. Basically, they say kind of the second full trading day on NASDAQ immediately following the public release of our quarterly financial results. Up to 20 percent of the early release eligible shares may be transferred. And then they say that if the stock that's listed on the NASDAQ is at least 30 percent greater than the public offering price, then they release an additional 10 percent.
39:15So there are a bunch of kind of conditions like that based on the earnings date and the stock price on those dates. And they allow for additional shares to be sold as opposed to waiting the 180 days. Now, what I think this accomplishes, just kind of reading through the tea leaves here, is in order to, when you wait the 180 days, you often have this cliff where people will go into it. They'll short the stock. They'll expect there to be some pressure on supply. And the stock price will go down all at once in anticipation of that day. What this is doing is kind of creating more of a, you know, a stair-like approach where you're kind of allowing for various lockups in the interim there and not just doing it all at one time.
39:55Now, why this is important is because, as we've been reporting and as our Christina Parts Nevelis has been out front on, is the Nasdaq has been changing rules to allow some of these mega IPOs to be included in the indexes on a faster basis. But you need to have a bigger float to do that. So if you are listing a smaller float, but you have a more generous lockup policy than is typical, you can achieve that float on a quicker basis to have a bigger weighting in the index if you're ultimately included.
40:27Tim Seymour:I apologize if I missed it, Leslie, but there's also it sounded like there is also a component of the stock has to trade up a certain amount in order for that additional. So they want to make sure the stock is up on steady footing, basically, before they release some more shares. Exactly. So it says at least 30 percent greater than the IPO price, the ultimate IPO price. If that is the case, they will release an additional 10 percent of early release eligible shares. And they do say this is important that our founder, Elon Musk, is not party to any of the early release provisions during the extended lockup period.
41:01So presumably if he were to sell and he has about 12.3 percent stake in this company, I believe, he would have to wait until that 180 days if he wanted to sell any stock. All right.
41:13Tim Seymour:Leslie, thank you. Leslie Picker. That's an interesting way of. He's not selling. He said that he's not selling. And, you know, if you go back to Tesla, I think the first 10 offerings they did and they did a lot of offerings, whether it was equity, whether it's converts. This is going back after their IPO in 2010. He actually participated buying on them. Right. So he's not going to like I just don't think the little kitty is going to matter much to him. I think he thinks this is going to be the first 10 trillion dollar market cap company. But in terms of changing the way the lockup is real, I mean, that's novel.
41:41Karen Finerman:It's novel. There's a lot of structure and optionality in it. I'll just say that if you're talking about four to five percent of the company's market cap and free float, it's still going to be tiny. And I think perversely, that actually might really help how the shares trade. Yeah.
41:56Tim Seymour:Michael, I'm just wondering, you know, if it is put into the NASDAQ 100 or another index, presumably people have to buy and they'll have to sell something else. So how do you view this sort of ATM effect and what will be, you know, ATM'd? Well, one of the things that's going to be ATM'd is what Dan was talking about at the outset of the show, which was that, you know, presumably a lot of the people that are investing in SpaceX are investing in Elon. And a lot of those people are already invested in Elon because they're invested in Tesla. So it's kind of hard to see why some money wouldn't come out of Tesla and into SpaceX.
42:31So I think that's probably the register is going to get it wrong anywhere. That might be one of the first places I think that's that you're going to see it.
42:38Tim Seymour:Unless you think SpaceX is going to buy Tesla. I mean, that's what Dan Ives just he just put out a report on SpaceX and he said he thinks that it's that's going to happen. That combining SpaceX with Tesla is in the cards. It's been out there. I don't know what the prime mean. I don't know if they do it at existing price or if there's a premium. But I think a lot of people are hoping that that's some sort of exit ramp. And at Dan's point, it creates one of the first, if not$7 trillion,$10 trillion companies. So that's been out there for a while. Coming up, Amazon Executive Chairman Jeff Bezos weighing in on a number of topics in a wide-ranging interview with CNBC this morning.
43:11Tim Seymour:What he had to say about AI's role in the labor market, the details when Fast Money returns.
43:20Karen Finerman:I think there's so many people who are afraid that AI is going to take their job. I think that there's going to be a labor shortage as a result. A lot of people who have two earner income households, one of the people is going to drop out of the workforce. That's why we're going to have a labor shortage. Because of the productivity gains, you're going to be able to afford things. We're going to have, I predict, we'll actually have deflation.
43:49Tim Seymour:That was Jeff Bezos in conversation with our own Andrew Ross Sorkin earlier today on Squawk Box. The Amazon founder saying AI-driven productivity gains could actually drive down prices and create a shortage of workers. He also waved off concerns over an AI bubble, saying heavy investment will ultimately drive the technology's long-term advancement. Maybe now we're just in a sort of transition period where we're seeing job losses or maybe it's AI washing.
44:16Karen Finerman:So let me connect the dots for me on greater productivity leads to a labor shortage and how deflation leads to a labor shortage. I don't really understand that. Seriously. Well, I think you're saying people are going to drop out of the market. Out of the workforce. Out of the workforce. Excuse me. I mean. So technically the pool, the denominator becomes smaller. But why? Why? I mean, because they can't get a job. This is all like sci-fi stuff. Nobody does. They drop out because they can't get a job. Guy, what are you going to do?
44:45Tim Seymour:Why are you yelling at me? He's going to own a robot who's going to go to work for him. Yeah, it's about time. We have like an agent sitting right here. We had a whole conversation. I'll save the vernacular about all this. No, I mean, I'm just saying it's a family show. All right, well, coming up, what we're hearing out of NVIDIA's conference call when Fast Money returns.
45:09Tim Seymour:Getting some more details out of NVIDIA's conference call, let's get back to Christina Parts Nevelis. Christina. Well, NVIDIA's CFO started by saying, I've called it Crest, saying H100 rental prices, these are the Hopper GPUs, are up 20 % year to date, and the A100 cloud pricing is up nearly 15%. That particular chip, the A100, is about six years old. On the China front, we know the U.S. government has approved licenses to ship Hopper chips to Chinese customers, but the company saying they remain uncertain whether those imports will actually be allowed. So that overhang is still an overhang. CEO Jensen Wong making the case that NVIDIA should be growing faster than hyperscaler CapEx, arguing that without compute, there are no revenues and no profits.
45:49And on the next generation Vera Rubin chip, Jensen Wong says every frontier model company plans to adopt it from day one, something he says was not the case with Blackwell, calling in a sign that Vera Rubin will be even more successful than the previous generation. The CEO also betting that there will be supply constraint throughout the entire life of Vera Rubin. Why is that? He's saying that there's going to be billions of agents out there that are all going to need their chips. So very bullish,
46:18Tim Seymour:especially around CPUs. All right, Christina, thank you. Christina Parts Nevelis. I'll go back to what Chris Rollin told us, and that is that ARM makes a very competitive CPU. There isn't much difference between them. And they're going to sacrifice price in order to beat NVIDIA on this front.
46:32Karen Finerman:And they're up 16 % today.
46:34Tim Seymour:Yeah. Mike, how do you sort of see Vera Rubin? Well, I mean, I guess the first thing I would say is that, as they often do, the best solution for high prices, and we've been seeing a lot of high prices based on demand in this entire complex, is high prices. And you start to see competition. The other thing I would say is that this sort of non-move that we're getting, the last earnings was a sell the news event, But then it was an opportunity to buy. I have a feeling this is what this is going to turn into as well. It has outperformed the S &P by double since the last earnings, and it's probably going to turn into a decent buying opportunity.
47:07Tim Seymour:All right. Up next, final trades.
47:15Tim Seymour:We're out of time, so take a look at your final trades. There you have them. Thanks for watching FAST. See you tomorrow. Mad Money. Jim Cramer starts now. All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet, or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion.
47:41Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Fast Money Disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com forward slash Fast Money Disclaimer.
48:20Karen Finerman:their OSA. ZetBound is approved as a 2.5, 5, 7.5, 10, 12.5, or 15 milligram injection. ZetBound contains terzepatide and should not be used with other terzepatide-containing products or any GLP-1 receptor agonist medicines. It is not known if ZetBound is safe and effective for use in children. Don't share needles or pins or reuse needles. Don't take if allergic to it or if you or someone in your family had medullary thyroid cancer or if you've had multiple endocrine neoplasia syndrome type 2. Tell your doctor if you get a lump or swelling in your neck. Stop ZipBound and call your doctor if you have severe stomach pain or a serious allergic reaction.
48:58Karen Finerman:Severe side effects may include inflamed pancreas or gallbladder problems. Tell your doctor if you experienced vision changes before scheduled procedures with anesthesia, if you're nursing, pregnant, plan to be, or taking birth control pills. Taking ZipBound with a sulfonylurea or insulin may cause low blood sugar. Side effects include nausea, diarrhea, and vomiting, which can cause dehydration and worsen kidney problems. Talk to your doctor. Call 1-800-545-5979 or visit setbound.lily.com.
From the publisher
All eyes on Nvidia as the semi giant reports results. The latest numbers and details out of the company’s earnings report, and where a top tech analysts see the stock heading next. Plus Target and TJX Companies give a read on the consumer, crude’s pullback boosts the travel trade, and how the retreat in yields are boosting stocks. A top market strategist joins the Fast Money traders to dig into what we learned from the Fed minutes, and how it may impact the central bank’s rate decision in June.
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