Oil Spikes On Latest Mideast Developments… And Opportunity In The Volatility 5/4/26

19:58Tim Seymour:Coming up, all the after hours action. The details and numbers moving Palantir, Paramount, Pinterest, and more. But first, a supply chain drain for the transport trade. How Amazon is expanding its logistics network and why it's weighing on names like UPS and FedEx. Do not go anywhere fast when he's back in two.

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21:49Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money UPS and FedEx. Plunging today after Amazon announced it will open up its supply chain and logistics networks to other businesses via Amazon supply chain services. The new initiative has already inked deals with names like Procter & Gamble, 3M, American Eagle Outfitters, and more. Those companies will now have access to Amazon's 100 plus cargo planes and its massive network of warehouses. Andy Jassy is speaking to our Jim Cramer earlier today. Saying transports aren't the only industry. There are billions of people around the world with no broadband connectivity, and there are many, many thousands of companies and government entities that want visibility into those assets where they can't get them.

22:30There's going to be more than one successful company. I mean, there are going to be multiple. Now, I think when we get our constellation up, And we have, you know, about 300 satellites that we've launched with 20 more launches coming this year and 30 more launches coming next year. But when we have our constellation up, they're really going to only be two companies with this leading edge technology.

22:52Tim Seymour:So how bad is it? Is it as bad as the declines in UPS and FedEx? I think it is. I mean, I'm trying to think what you know, what are some bad headlines you could wake up to? This would be one of them if you're if you're the CEO of either FedEx or UPS. They're an enormous competitor. You know, it's it's I think there could be a lot more to it. It's interesting as an Amazon shareholder, you know, the retail business, the logistic business is sort of a sideshow now relative to AWS. But this is an enormous, enormous business. And one thing about Amazon, they know how to scale in a huge way. So I don't own FedEx or UPS.

23:29I wouldn't start today. It's not the headline you want to hear, especially at a time when FedEx and UPS have been about margin accretion, UPS especially. They're not going to spend the way Amazon has and will. And Amazon's already devoted a ton of CapEx and focus on this. This is what Amazon does. So while we've been getting used to UPS actually moving on in a world without Amazon, to their benefit, ultimately, although it's been part of, I think, a reassessment. I know the other part about today in the transport space, though, it's not just this headline. It's it's what's going on with energy prices.

24:05It's there's no question. I mean, obviously, the airline component of the transport index don't like it. The rails had an incredible earnings season for the most part. And I think some of this is just a little bit of a give back. So let's you know, overall, the group, I think, had reasons to be selling off as well.

24:22Tim Seymour:Carter, I don't know if you want to take from the transport side or the Amazon side. Well, just trying to tackle all of it. But I mean, the main subject being these two that are under pressure based on prospective news and change in the landscape. UPS has been obviously the one that's been the idiosyncratic problem, obviously down some 60 % from its highs of two years ago and not much above its own COVID low, which is quite remarkable. FedEx, different story. But either way, I think one has to, and this is always the idea, to respect price action. The dropping and gapping in both stocks, news related or not, is a negative.

24:58They're dropping and gapping on very heavy volume. And if one at a minimum is long, one should take measures.

25:04Tim Seymour:All right. You can catch Jim's full exclusive interview with Amazon CEO Andy Jassy, Mad Money, at the top of the hour. Coming up, shares of Palantir on the move after reporting the details and numbers out of the latest quarter. Next, you're watching Fast Money live from the Nasdaq Market Site in Times Square. Talk right after this.

25:28At Venture Global, we think about what can be done, not what's usually done. Through innovation, Venture Global is not only building some of the largest energy facilities in the world right here in the United States, but delivering American energy at a fraction of the cost and a fraction of the time. So while others are busy talking, we're busy building. That's Venture Global. That's unstoppable energy. At Uber, every single driver is required to pass a thorough background check before they can start driving. That means any prospective driver goes through a multi-step screening process, checking for any impaired driving or criminal offenses.

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26:59Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. Earnings alert on Palantir, the software stock beating top and bottom line estimates. Shares, though, are up just barely. That's the call kicked off at the top of the hour. Seema Modi joins us here on set with the very latest. Almost a head scratcher, how little the stock is moving, given its history of moving big and given the report. It really is, Melissa. that we've been on the call. And what's clear is that as the Department of Defense continues to lean into technology, Palantir is emerging as a clear winner. And that's clear from the company's guidance raise. Alex Karp telling CNBC he plans to grow sales 100 % next year and that the company is doing it with less people, adding we have more free cash flow this year than revenue last year.

27:37And with the war ongoing, it's incredibly busy. Karp sharing, quote, I just am in the trenches here building Palantir. I barely go out. Now as to why the stock perhaps is not fully reflecting Palantir's growth story. Karp said the market is off and off by six to eight months. It's not off by six to eight years, adding, quote, I don't think there will be a disconnect very much longer. He also went on to talk about the large language models, calling them commodities and said Palantir remains agnostic and that it can plug and play any in and out of its platform. He adds, though we are not agnostic to leaving soldiers on the battlefield, we will use whatever technology is available.

28:15We've been watching shares move just fractually here after hours. Melissa, one thing to also mention is while government did grow, commercial also grew by 133 percent year over year. But the street was expecting 137 percent year over year growth. So a slight miss on that front.

28:31Tim Seymour:He seems to be calling for the stock to go higher, though. I mean, you read between the lines and that was the message. Oh, absolutely. That's been one of the challenges for Palantir. even going into this report, is distinguishing the company from the broader software displacement fears. While it is a company that primarily sells its technology to defense contractors, it is, as in a day, a software company. It is in the IGV software ETF. So that key distinction is what the company has been trying to do with this very strong report. And these numbers, we'll see if it starts to resonate. Yep. Seema, thank you.

29:02Tim Seymour:Seema Modi, what did you make of the quarter? I think the quarter was actually excellent. The commercial growth, as Seema pointed out, triple digits. And in some sense, I think the analysts, the market is more pivoted towards that. We know that the U.S. government opportunity, the Maven deal, USDA, we're hearing about a couple of these other things that are big, big opportunities. I think they stay as big as always. The thing is, I just I can't chase this one here. What makes me feel best about it is this one actually was. and Carter may have a view, the price action during the software route, I thought was better than I would have expected for this kind of a high flyer.

29:39And I think software trades very well over the last couple of days. Look at Oracle. This one is just on valuation, too expensive for me. I know I could have said that so many, you know, 100 points ago, but I don't know. I still, it's not for me. Good quarter, though. Interestingly, the straddle, the 146 straddle at 14 bucks, which is expensive. And tomorrow, or for whatever, May 8th, it would go to zero. That would be a good trade. I didn't have that on.

30:08Tim Seymour:Carter, does it look like this one can escape IGB, or will it trade along with? Well, it's surely on its own. I mean, with great reward comes great risk. We know that, I mean, just to put it in context, Palantir, in the 2022 bear market where the S &P dropped 27%, the Qs dropped 30%, it dropped 87%. We know that in the tariff kerfuffle, it lost 46 % in a matter of weeks. We know that it's down right now 41 % from its highs of October. But it also, one could say, it came from 5, 6 on the lows of the bear market three years ago to 200. Meaning, you know, you get sort of what one anticipates when you get something that can win this much.

30:49It also has setbacks that are epic and major. The real question structurally, of course, is this, and the chart really defines it, a bullish two-bearish reversal sell. A great and important advance that has lost its way, uptrend no longer, and the question, does it have downside risk? That's my hunch. If I were long, I would trim, exit altogether, sell calls, take some measures.

31:12Tim Seymour:Yeah. The conference call is ongoing, and the stock is now down by about 1.1%, so it has moved in just the past few minutes. We'll keep an eye on that one. Coming up, the sounds and sights from the Milton Conference in Beverly Hills. We'll hear from TCW Group CEO Katie Koch about where she sees the market heading next and where she is finding opportunity in the volatility. Fast Money is back in two.

31:36Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. Stocks seeing losses to kick off the week. The Dow falling 557 points. The S &P down four-tenths of a percent. The Nasdaq with a small loss down two-tenths of a percent. Bitcoin breaking above the$80 ,000 mark for the first time since January after lawmakers reached an agreement on the Clarity Act, new language would preserve stablecoin reward programs if used to incentivize things like trading and staking. And some more after-hours action shares a paramount beating estimates on the top and the bottom lines. Pinterest surging after its own earnings beat. Vertex Pharma missing revenue estimates on semi-topping estimates and posting better-than-expected guidance.

32:10Tim Seymour:And Duolingo falling as monthly active users came in below estimates. Let's head now to the Milken Global Conference in California. of CNBC's Sarah Eisen. This is TCW Group CEO Katie Koch in a first on CNBC interview. Sarah, take it away. Thank you so much, Melissa. Yes, here with all the heavy hitters in the markets. Joining me is Katie Koch. She's head of Trust Company of the West, one of the biggest bond investors in the country. It's great to have you here. Thank you for having me. And I did want to start on private credit because I remember at this conference, three years ago, we were on stage together and you were out there saying, private credit's getting frothy.

32:46Everybody's jumping into this. I mean, that was like the golden era where everyone was in. So now that we're really starting to see a cycle here, you must not be surprised. What do you think is happening? Yeah, we're not surprised to see a cycle. We saw cracks previously and were vocal about that. And now we see a lot of opportunities. So it's important to know at TCW, we manage credit across both public and private markets. And in private credit, just for context here, we've done it for 26 years. We've maintained the same discipline. So three to four times leverage. The market's much higher than that.

33:19We have covenants. We have documentation. We say no a lot. We maintain pricing discipline. So you don't have any problems. So we, of course, this is leverage for dead. So there's always problems. But for an example, we don't have any software exposure. And people ask us like a lot. Why is that? Why did you avoid it? Everybody else seems to. And it's not because we predicted the, how do we say that? Saspocalypse. Saspocalypse. Is that how we say it? Yeah, I guess. Saspocalypse. We did not predict that. But we just maintained the same discipline for 26 years. And if you did that, you would have not made loans to those companies or they wouldn't have wanted your money because it was expensive with a lot of strings attached.

33:50And that has led us always to have highly differentiated exposure and to right now not have software exposure. And just one other thing I wanted to say on that in terms of, you know, what what did we see? I said it before. A lot of money was being put to work. There was a lack of discipline and we did get sector concentration. That's probably not something we want in leveraged finance, because in leveraged finance, something is always going to go wrong and always go sideways. You have to be able to work out of those situations, have the documents, have the experience to work out. You never want those all concentrated into one sector.

34:23And I think that's going to be a learning from this is to maintain discipline and also maintain better portfolio. So now that it's getting washed out, is it a buying opportunity? We absolutely think that there is tremendous opportunity here because you're going to get better terms at better returns. This is the time when everyone's heading for the exit. in our view that people should be entering the asset class. And in two specific areas, new vintage private credit shouldn't be a vintage sensitive asset class. But now that people are retreating, you are going to get the opportunity for better returns.

34:56And this could be actually the first distress cycle in this asset class, really since the global financial crisis. And we see a huge amount of demand in the distress space for private credit. And we think that's going to be a great opportunity to buy. Yeah, absolutely. So it's going to get worse and then better? Yeah, I think if, well, first of all, if you've maintained discipline through this whole period, your portfolio is going to be able to navigate this well. What you're going to have is a lot of manager differentiation. And we really haven't had that in private credit before because rates were zero, it was easy to lend money, and people weren't differentiated.

35:31Now we're going to have an environment of differentiation. And obviously we think we'll be on the right side of that, and we're excited to deliver for our existing clients on that. And then new vintages should have higher return opportunities. And again, there's not going to be an opportunity in distress for private credits. Different than Q-SIP liquid distress. This is going into private credit, senior secure for lending. And you get a PIC component. You get a high coupon, take warrants on the equity. This could have returns, in our view, that not only out-returns the credit markets broadly, but also out-returns private equity.

36:03Okay, I want to ask you about the public market, too, because you guys are also huge in the bond market there. And just, I mean, the equity market, the bond market, do you think it's priced correctly given, you know, oil prices have surged and there's increased geopolitical risk? There is. And we are value managers. So our observation would be, given how much current negative news flow is out there and potential for future disruption, a lot of which is really outside of our control in the near term, there is absolutely going to be more moments of volatility and dislocation ahead. It would not be our view that equity risk premiums should be negative right now, which they are, and that credit spread should be as tight as they are.

36:47So across all of our... I think equities are overvalued. I do. We do writ large. There are parts of the equity market where we see long-term opportunity, AI, not the index. Some of that is overextended, but in the companies that are actually going to use that to transform their business models, lots of opportunities there. And we're invested in that in one of our ETFs, AIFD, and in the power transformation that is going to support AI and the electrification of everything. So not only AI, but also the fact that we are electrifying everything with vehicles and that we're bringing some of this manufacturing home.

37:20That is still a great opportunity in the equity market. But overall, for equity risk premiums to be negative at this point, I mean, that should give people some pause and some concern in our view. And being active and selective, important there. And in the bond market, we are overweight. agency MBS where we see better value and good liquidity. We're underweight credit. And we think the market's going to give us the dislocation opportunity to lean in and buy more credit. We're actually half our pure weight in credit and very underweight the benchmark. And our view in this world of probabilities that we live in is that we're going to be able to get be given the opportunity to lean in and do more in credit.

37:55And in the private credit side, we're going to be out there deploying when other people aren't. Yeah. Well, that's why we love to talk to you. A lot of contrarian ideas there. And thank you for putting the view out, both on public and private credit, and what you guys are doing. I always love talking to you, but it's my favorite to talk to you when we're in my hometown and not on the road somewhere exotic around the world. I know, last time was Riyadh. I hope we get back there for a lot of reasons. Land of the big fund fund managers. Katie, thank you. Katie Koch. It's always a pleasure. I hope we get back there too this year.

38:26That's Katie Koch, TCW CEO. Back over to you, Melissa.

38:29Tim Seymour:Sarah, thanks. Sarah Eisen with Katie Pekach. A lot to unpack there. I don't know if that's good news in terms of there's a buyer out there for a lot of these assets. There's a buyer. So there's two things. There's sort of, all right, what happens to the portfolio that's existing? And then what happens to the business right now? It's changing where the businesses, there's more opportunities, the better pricing. All those are good things. You know, I'm talking my book. I'm long private credit. Yes. Yes, you are. Yes, I am. Well, I think what's interesting is this is a chance for people that are being opportunistic to actually go in and buy private credit.

39:04I thought the story about the public credit side was interesting, like not that interested, looking a little concerned about where we are in a credit cycle, which ultimately for equity folks, that's not going to go well. If you look at the KKRs, the Blackstones, even the Owls, those have all kind of, you know, the charts are interesting. And again, we've got a guy that can probably comment on that. But, you know, Al, to me, is the one everyone is watching. And it's now back above the 50.

39:30Tim Seymour:Hey, guy who can comment on charts. Who's that guy? Who would that be? Anyway, everyone's entitled to have a judgment on the price action. But if you want mine, I concur. Tim is making a point that they have stabilized. And in fact, each has this slight look of a curling up circumstance. And I would embrace them as speculative longs. All right. Coming up, a box office bonanza for The Devil Wears Prada sequel. How the film delivered one of this year's biggest debuts and how legendary film producer Wendy Feinerman brings the magic to the silver screen. She will join us next when Fast Money returns.

40:13Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. It was a blockbuster weekend for The Devil Wears Prada 2, the highly anticipated sequel, making its theatrical debut 20 years after the original with its star-studded cast, Meryl Streep, Anne Hathaway, Emily Blunt, Stanley Tucci. The film strut its way to number one at the box office worldwide with$234 million in ticket sales, beating out the Michael Jackson biopic and the Super Mario Galaxy movie. Joining us on set is the film's producer, Academy Award winner, Wendy Fyreman. And let's clap her in. Let's clap her in. She's family. She's Hollywood royalty. Otherwise known as Karen's sister.

40:49Tim Seymour:And I'm known as Wendy's sister. Exactly, exactly. One extraordinary opening. Today is May 4th, so everybody's saying, may the 4th be with you because of Star Wars. Well, you just did. I know, I know, I know. I'm embarrassed. Trekkie. But actually, a film like Devil Wears Prada, I mean, it's remarkable in that you think it's a huge budget film because it did so well. And it's actually not. It's not a huge budget film in terms of what usually would be is what the beginning of summer. And what we don't realize is we look at things globally now. The film business is globally. It used to be what was released here, and then it would be released internationally later.

41:25But globally, this is most of the world's Memorial Day. For some of the world, it was on Friday. It was off, and for some of the world, Monday today is off. And usually, the movies that kick off this kind of weekend are what I like to refer to as cape movies. They're super power, you know, people with massive talents and that are going to jump and dive and do everything. And they're not our kind of cape movies where you take off the cape and you're more powerful. And yet these women in Prada all have super power. They have super power. So it's the first time I, you know, there's so many different numbers, but the first time over a decade where a movie like this has started the summer season.

42:10Tim Seymour:We were talking over the weekend about the fantastic Weekend box office. And you're saying it sort of brings out people who saw it 20 years ago. I mean, I can remember watching it back then. And people are going back to the theaters. And it's the perfect movie, I think, for this time where people want to stay away from politics. You don't want something political. You don't want something violent. You don't want this is it. I've gotten so much feedback in such a positive way of this is like what we need right now. We need to escape. We just need to be entertained. We just want to be having a good time and not having to think about it.

42:48And they also want to walk away and feel like enlightened and feel like better and not feel worse. And just be a little happy. And the other thing that's amazing is the amount of people that is just what you said, Melissa, who went. I mean, there was a group of people from, you know, Boston, friends of mine. Thirty women went together. You know, somebody who's been on the show many times, a really high-powered woman on Wall Street, said, I'm going with the person I saw 20 years ago. We are going together. Families are going. Sisters are going. And the other thing is, and it's not just here, all over the world, people are dressing up.

43:25It's become an event. They're wearing red shoes. They're wearing makeup. They're looking like different characters. They're saying certain lines. So it's become an event versus just going to the movies. And, you know, I'm very happy about that right now because I think we're giving people some relief.

43:42Tim Seymour:You are such an extraordinary film producer. But how tough is the movie business, even for somebody like you these days? The movie business is probably the most challenging, at least in my career, I've ever seen. And I think probably for anybody who's ever been in it. And, you know, aside from the massive change in markets and the way people view things and streaming costs, you know, we had the pandemic. People really kind of never fully came back to those numbers. Once in a while, we'll get to a weekend where we'll look at it and say almost back. It's like pre-pandemic numbers. And then we had the writers and the actors strike and they were all back to back.

44:25And our pipeline still has been effective because of that. And on top of it, we've had, you know, we'll see if they're all proof. We've had a real reduction of the amount of studios that are, you know, supporting, producing, you know, and financing films. And they're finding it a lot more financially, you know, kind of diligent to do it in other ways. And that may be streaming. That may be direct to video. That may be only releasing the movie for a week. And people are forgetting that the essence of people do want to go be entertained. They want to go get out of their house. But the safer way to do it, because the amount of costs that are involved with the theatrical release, is let's play the safe bet.

45:16Let's let them watch it at home. Wendy, first of all, congrats. It's great to have you here. And I'm sure Andy Sachs is a Fast Money fan. Is that correct? Andy Sachs is a fast money fan and an Arsenal fan. Okay. So it's a global industry, as you talked about. Global sales were fantastic. Talk about Disney as a global partner here and distribution. And, you know, I mean, I just love to hear, you know, I mean, as a shareholder in Disney, too, kind of their role here. This is the first film that I've ever made with Disney. And I've got to tell you, never in my life have I seen a machine. I like to think of myself with the long career that I've had and different kind of products and branding and stunts that we've done.

45:53I'm looking out over Melissa's shoulder at some of the films I have. I might have some restaurants over there and some other things that we've done. They are a machine. There is something to be said for them. My hat is off to them. Any time I would look to think of an idea, because I really do enjoy the marketing part of it the most, because that's kind of sometimes where you can get free opportunities. You know, how do we find the synergy? Who do we put together? Whom? What do we do? They were already ahead of it. They have this machine that is fantastic. And, you know, on top of it, what they did, which really helped is and I didn't understand the whole process until you really go through the whole movie with them, because it's hard to see understanding how they have their partnerships until you come out.

46:39And I would be like their partnerships. All these partnerships are so important. and are the partnerships going to impair our filmmaking? You know, we all know that when you watch a movie or something, you go, oh, it's so obvious that so-and-so is paying the money to put in there. And they were so discreet with their partnerships, but the amount of financial support and advertising support that Disney commands is 200 % better than anybody else. I mean, they're just fantastic.

47:07Tim Seymour:Wendy, it was a privilege to have you here on set. Thank you so much for stopping by. Thank you, thank you. Thank you. Easy woman. Happy 20, by the way. I'm 20. I heard they're 20 soon. Yeah, we're getting there. We're getting there. January. We're getting there. Wendy Feinerman. Thank you. More Fast Money in two.

47:26Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. GameStop closing 10 % lower after the video game retailer made an unsolicited bid for eBay. The proposed$56 billion cash in stock deal is worth more than five times GameStop's market value. Cohen avoided specifics on how he plans to finance an acquisition, saying his company can issue stock to get the deal done. Sure, they can. Be very dilutive to shareholders at the same time. But yes, you can do that. That is a way. Well, that was an interesting interview. He was a bit combative, I think. I don't agree that he said it's in the document. It's not. If you're going to issue cash and stock, we know what cash is worth.

48:01We don't know what stock is worth. We don't know if it's a fixed ratio. We don't know if there's any collar. It would need a shareholder vote for sure. And so that part, you know, I think he needs to come out with more details of that. Also, do they have any advisors? I don't know. I found that that was one of the more curious interviews I've seen ever, maybe. Curious is one word that people have said to me. Well, there's other words. Yeah. But I wouldn't I mean, I wouldn't buy eBay on this, I think. No. And again, as Karen pointed out, I mean, how much stock is such an open issue here, especially when there's some speculation.

48:40There's just some concern about how much in this deal is triggered by his own cash position there. So I don't think either are interesting. And, you know, we've been watching GameStop do nothing for a long time with a fair amount of cash. But I this doesn't make suddenly the foundation of eBay's platform look any different than it did the day before. So nothing to do.

49:02Tim Seymour:Yeah. Carter, I don't know if you have any thoughts on the GameStop chart or maybe the eBay chart, because the eBay is actually a turnaround story that analysts were sort of getting excited on. Yeah, the comment we can always issue shares. It's a bit flippant, to say the least. But eBay's had a good steady uptrend. It's been performing well. And I would say of the two, it's the one that – but generally speaking, I'm with Tim. I mean, I would say stay on the sidelines for all of this. Yeah. I mean, it is – he kept saying. Now eBay is such a strong business, such a strong business. It really just makes you want to buy eBay yourself and not games off.

49:38Yes.

49:39Tim Seymour:Sort of an interesting sales pitch on his part. It is time now for the final trade. So let's go around the board. Carter Braxton Worth. Well, I like Apple here. After gapping up on earnings, it's filled that gap. Buy Apple. Karen. Yeah. So I know you had somewhat of a sell-off today. If you just, you know, look at a chart over the last six weeks, This was absolutely nothing. However, I feel like the market's still frothy. I want to buy some protection because I'm always on buying some spider puts. Tim. Well, you're a team player. I think you're playing hurt today. Yeah. I don't know. Five hours she's on the field today.

50:12There's no question. It's impressive. No I in the word Melissa. Disney. Nice to hear how the global prowess in the machine, as Wendy talked about. But they report tomorrow. I'm a shareholder.

50:22Tim Seymour:Thanks for watching Fast Money. See you tomorrow on Swapbox. Mad Money with Jim Primer starts right now. All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet, or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such.

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