Proposed Iran Peace Deal Sparks Market Rally… And the Future of Perpetual Futures 6/15/26

15 Jun 2026 · 44 min · 27 chapters

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In short

Fast Money (6/15/26) covers a market rally after a proposed U.S.-Iran peace framework deal, plus debates on energy stocks, Fed policy, SpaceX’s IPO aftermath, Uber’s ad push, Fox-Roku streaming, Amazon’s pullback, and the rise of “perpetual futures.”

Guests/panelists

Carter Braxton Wirth (Fast Money host; birthday mentioned), Karen Feinerman (trader/investor; buys energy on strength), Guy Adami (market commentator; focuses on VIX/volatility and energy value), Julie Beal (rates/market strategist; oil normalization timing), Michael Selig (CFTC Chair; regulates perpetual futures), Joe Zidl (former Blackstone chief investment strategist; runs Zidl Macro Strategy Group), plus CNBC’s Megan Casella and Julia Boorstin as reporters.

Key claims/examples

U.S.-Iran MOU extends ceasefire 60 days, reopens Strait of Hormuz toll-free for 60 days, sanctions relief is performance-based; oil volatility may stay cheap; energy value shown by OIH/drillers holding up despite crude down ~5%. Perpetual futures: Selig argues they’re regulated “contract for future delivery” cash-settled products with daily funding rates; rejects political-pressure claims; says approvals are asset-by-asset. Examples: Western Digital +16% to all-time highs; Micron/Marvell +10%+; SpaceX shares +20% day two; Uber ad formats using Meta/Google first-party data; Fox buying Roku for $22B; Amazon bouncing at its 150-day moving average.

Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.

Chapters

Tap a time to open that second in VO

Market Reaction to Iran Peace Deal

1:47 to 3:38

Discussion on market reactions to the U.S.-Iran deal and stock performance.

“breathing a sigh of relief after the U.S.”

Volatility and Energy Market Insights

3:38 to 4:50

Analysis on market volatility and the energy sector's performance.

“I do think, I do hope and think that ultimately there will be a deal.”

Expectations for Oil Prices

4:50 to 6:22

Insights on oil prices and factors influencing future market conditions.

“It feels like a lot of enthusiasm for sure.”

Broader Market Dynamics

6:22 to 8:10

Discussion on the broader market trends and sector performances.

“Karen, do you think that this, do you agree with that?”

U.S.-Iran Deal Framework Details

8:10 to 9:40

Details on the U.S.-Iran deal framework and its implications.

“Julie, do you think that we are in for broadening?”

Impacts on Federal Reserve Policies

9:40 to 14:00

Discussion on how the Iran deal may influence Federal Reserve policies.

“CNBC's Megan Casella has a developing story from Geneva.”

Inflationary Challenges and Fed Decisions

14:00 to 18:07

Explore the complex factors influencing inflation and the Fed's response.

“My view is the inflationary challenge that the Fed faces right now is only one part due to oil prices.”

Anticipated Rate Hikes and Market Reactions

18:07 to 19:19

Discuss the potential for upcoming interest rate hikes and their market implications.

“And that meeting came out with the most divisive Fed that we'd ever seen.”

Job Market and CapEx Demand

19:19 to 20:14

Analyze the impact of a strong job market and capital expenditure on inflation.

“is change process more so than necessarily the direction of interest rates.”

Gold Market Trends and Predictions

20:14 to 21:05

Evaluate current trends in the gold market and potential future movements.

“Meantime, let's check out gold climbing higher today, jumping more than two and a half percent, adding to Friday's three percent gain.”
Show all 27 chapters

Introduction to SpaceX Trading Debut

21:05 to 21:31

Overview of SpaceX's initial trading performance and its market impact.

“And I think this is the beginning of what should be a multi-day move.”

Introduction to SpaceX Trading Debut

22:31 to 22:46

Overview of SpaceX's initial trading performance and its market impact.

“Traditional home security only alerts you after a break-in, and that's too late.”

SpaceX Market Analysis and Projections

23:00 to 24:15

In-depth analysis of SpaceX's market performance and trading dynamics.

“It is day two for SpaceX public trading and its first full day of trading after its historic debut on Friday.”

Uber's New Advertising Strategy

24:15 to 28:18

Explore Uber's new advertising initiatives and their implications for growth.

“But that's not where the bulk of the value is in the stock.”

Uber's New Advertising Strategy

28:32 to 29:54

Explore Uber's new advertising initiatives and their implications for growth.

“Uber shares up nearly 6 % after announcing new advertising plans.”

Upcoming Discussion on Perpetual Futures

29:54 to 30:11

Introduction to the next segment about perpetual futures and its implications.

“Coming up, the future of perpetual futures.”

Market Surge Highlights

30:11 to 30:39

Overview of stock market performance and notable stock jumps.

“The Dow jumping 469 points, closing at a record high.”

Exploring Perpetual Futures

30:39 to 33:12

CFTC Chair Michael Selig discusses the approval and implications of perpetual futures.

“The Commodity Futures Trading Commission approving prediction market operator Calci late last month to trade Bitcoin perps.”

Concerns Over Investor Risks

33:12 to 36:35

Discussion on the potential risks associated with perpetual futures for investors.

“These contracts, of course, are cash settled like others.”

Future of Innovative Products in Finance

36:35 to 39:44

Dialogue about the future of novel financial products and regulatory approaches.

“Is that at all a concern of you, or is that just sort of that's on the consumer, that's on the investor, the trader who decides to enter into a perpetual futures contract?”

Debate on Legal Definitions

39:44 to 40:05

Discussion on the legal definitions surrounding perpetual futures contracts.

“And a quick note here, CNBC and Calci have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.”

Fox Acquires Roku: Market Impact

40:05 to 40:55

Analysis of Fox's acquisition of Roku and its consequences for the streaming industry.

“He said the law states that at best these are swaps, not futures.”

Roku's Position in the Streaming Landscape

40:55 to 42:00

Further exploration of Roku's value and implications for Fox's strategy.

“Fox announcing it will buy streaming platform Roku for$22 billion.”

Analyzing the Roku and Fox Deal

42:00 to 43:38

Discussion on the implications of the Roku and Fox deal for investors.

“Now, bears warn of this deal that Roku's value is in part due to its neutrality to distribute a range of apps.”

Market Reactions and Future Outlook

43:38 to 43:57

Exploration of market reactions to stock movements and future implications.

“Coming up, why the chart master thinks Amazon's June drop is overdone.”

Amazon's Performance and Technical Analysis

43:57 to 45:58

Technical analysis of Amazon's stock and its potential bounce back.

“Amazon under pressure over the last few weeks, down more than 9 % since the start of June.”

Final Trades and Predictions

45:58 to 47:11

Panelists share their final trades and predictions for the market.

“And you would think with the, you know, if the war is really over, that's like a real additional boost.”
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Transcript

Automatic transcript. May contain errors.

0:00Tim Seymour:At Edward Jones, we believe rich isn't about having life all figured out. It's opening yourself to all the possibilities. That's why your dedicated financial advisor provides long-term planning built around you, meeting you where you are, and helping you get closer to where you want to be. So no matter where you're starting from, you can move forward with confidence. The key to being rich is knowing what counts.

0:25Dan Nathan:Let's find your rich. Edward Jones, member SIPC. Never bet against American grit or American energy. Through innovation, Venture Global is not only building some of the largest energy facilities in the world right here in the United States, but delivering American energy at a fraction of the cost and a fraction of the time. So while others are busy talking, we're busy building. That's Venture Global. That's unstoppable energy.

1:01Tim Seymour:Live from the Nasdaq Market Side in the heart of New York City's Times Square, this is Fast Money. Here's what's on tap tonight. A Monday market surge. Stocks rallying as the U.S. and Iran reach a deal to end the war in the Middle East. The major moves in chips, AI stocks and storage names that are leaving the gains. Is there more for this market to run? We'll debate that. And the future of perpetual futures. How the no expiration contracts are soaring in popularity and why Wall Street is divided. CFTC Chair Michael Selig joins us in just a few minutes to discuss. Plus, SpaceX still in the stratosphere, the latest media deal in the streaming space, and Prime Technicals with the trimester season store for Amazon after a rough few weeks.

1:39Tim Seymour:I'm Melissa Lee. Come to you live from Studio B at the NASDAQ. On the desk tonight, Carter Braxton Wirth, Karen Feinerman, Guy Adami, and Julie Beal. But we start off with markets breathing a sigh of relief after the U.S. and Iran reached a framework deal to end the war. Stocks putting in a third straight winning session, the Dow notching a record close, adding 470 points. It was up more than 700 points at session highs. The S &P rising over a percent and a half, and the Nasdaq leading the way, gaining over 3 percent for its best day since March. Crude oil, meantime, pulling back nearly 5 percent, now trading at its lowest level since the early days of the Iran war.

2:13Tim Seymour:And while energy lagged the S &P, the tech sector was in the lead position, rising over 3 percent, much of the gains coming from semiconductors and storage stocks. Western Digital, the best-performing S &P stock, up 16 percent to all-time highs. Micron and Marvell, both jumping more than 10 percent. And in mega-cap tech, all of the so-called MAG7 stocks rose today, led by Meta and NVIDIA, the group collectively, adding close to$600 billion in market value, roughly the size of an ExxonMobil. So did stocks just get the all clear to resume the record rally, or should we brace for some more volatility ahead?

2:48Tim Seymour:Guy, what do you think?

2:49Dan Nathan:Well, first of all, the most important part of the day is Carter Braxton Worth is celebrating a birthday. Yes, a big birthday. So on behalf of all the Fast Money team, happy birthday. Number two, listen, now it's the middle of July, excuse me, June. Last week, I think it was last week, Karen said that the VIX doesn't live at 19 and a half. And she was right. If you remember, the next day I think it traded up to 23. But just like it's hard to trade it at 19, at 16, I think it's begging you to. Now, we're going to be quarter end before you know it, which the market will sort of levitate into it.

3:17Dan Nathan:But I would submit that we're far from over in terms of what we're going to see with the energy market. And I think volatility is too cheap. All clear? Probably, yes, as we get into month end, but not all clear in terms of the VIX. So, obviously, good news, right? That was great. But I'm somewhat pessimistic on it, this being smooth sailing from here. I think we've seen so many iterations. I do think, I do hope and think that ultimately there will be a deal. So that would be good. I agree with your end of June, end of quarter sort of, you know, portfolio window dressing, whatever it may be. That certainly as well.

3:53Dan Nathan:You know, it's interesting that MAG7 had really been performing badly. They came back really strongly, even though they're relatively isolated versus so many of the other things that we talk about, which are affected way more by energy and what's happening in the rest of the world. So, I mean, it was fun, but some of it kind of faded, actually. You know, the banks really started off super strong, ended up mildly up. The regionals were down. So a nice, very nice bounce back in the AI trade.

4:22Tim Seymour:Yeah, KRE, KBE, both down a percent.

4:24Dan Nathan:Yeah, I mean, it was the same tape as it was on Friday. I think the advance decline was even, 256 stocks up, 246 down. But it was staples that were down. It was utilities, everything defensive, consumer, and so forth. And energy, of course, down because of the news. But remarkably, if you look at the most cyclical area of energy, the OIH, the drillers, barely moves. And I'm of the opinion that energy is value here.

4:49Tim Seymour:Julie, what are your thoughts about this rally that we saw today? It feels like a lot of enthusiasm for sure. And I think the expectation that, OK, great, like now we don't have this inflation problem. This is a much better setup for the Fed, et cetera. I think it's going to take a little bit of time for lower oil prices to filter through, particularly since there is so much demand to fill the reserves that have been depleted as a result of these actions. And China has talked about expanding their already gargantuan reserves. So I think everyone is going to be looking to fill that in. And so there's a lot of underlying demand here that makes me think that oil prices probably have hit a real concrete floor here and will struggle and could go higher.

5:33Tim Seymour:Pippa Stevens in the last hour said, you know, according to her reporting, there's still three to six months to normalization of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, even if they said right now it's open, go ahead. I mean, do you want to be the first ship to sail through?

5:47Dan Nathan:Probably not. But first of all, I don't like being on ships in general. You want to have a minesweeper. Right.

5:54Tim Seymour:You need to sweep the mines first. You want to make sure that none of the proxies are going to launch any attack. I mean, there are a lot of things that need to go on before anything can actually happen.

6:03Dan Nathan:Yes. And the market, as you also know, is a discounting mechanism. It will discount that. And I think to a large extent it already has with this move. But I'm with Julie on this one. I think Karen Carter just said it. I think energy stocks are providing value here, regardless of what you think the underlying commodity is going to do, just based on balance sheets alone and valuation alone.

6:21Tim Seymour:Yeah. Karen, do you think that this, do you agree with that? Very much. I bought more energy today.

6:26Dan Nathan:Every time that there's some good news there, you know, in energy trades off, I use that as an opportunity to buy some. Like you said, the OIH really didn't move at all well below what the underlying oil move was 5 % on West Texas. And they were down, I don't know, 2 and change percent. The XLE was down a little bit more. So we've talked about this for a long time. The sort of, I guess it's, I don't know, the weighting in the index versus what it used to be is materially smaller. And I do think that that's going to broaden out. So I'm bullish on the story longer term for the reasons that you said, though, also rebuilding and the idea of you don't want to rebuild to where you were.

7:05Dan Nathan:You want to rebuild with extra resources. Right. Exactly. Yeah. I mean, again, you know, value is obviously, you know, a terrible timing tool. And so to say it's cheap, that is an unknown thing. But I think there's value. And I think that's what we're all saying in having an overweight energy. It's a teeny weight in the whole market at what, three percent, three and a half. But there are certain tells. And, again, the way the drillers acted on a day like today, they could have been creamed and they weren't.

7:31Tim Seymour:Right. But do we need to see tech sort of move back, Guy, in order for energy to actually catch a bid?

7:38Dan Nathan:We've seen glimpses of it without question. I mean, you see how quickly the market – I believe the market's on a hair trigger to sell things. I understand. And you talk about panic selling. Well, in some ways, a lot of things you saw today I think would be panic buying, quite frankly. And that's just as, in my opinion, just as bad for the market is on the sell side. So I do think you're going to have to see some cooperation on the tech side of things, but not entirely. I mean, energy to me deserves its own sort of, I don't know, place in the spotlight right now. Again, regardless of what your views on the underlying commodity are.

8:10Tim Seymour:Julie, do you think that we are in for broadening? I mean, whenever there is an excuse to rally, it's always to the old trades that worked. It's not to the broadening trade. because a lot of what's happening is that it becomes this environment where people are really anxious about something and then we clear the decks. And I think when people feel the decks are cleared, they don't necessarily have a sense of where the direction is. And so they go to the things where they already know there is good, strong, secular demand. But really, there are so many places you could go because there's so much broadening that's happening throughout earnings, especially in the small and mid-cap land that I play in.

8:45I think that what is tough is that people feel very latched onto this AI trade, particularly on the semi-side, because I think they feel really confident that the earnings are here and now and they're going to stay with us for a while.

8:59Tim Seymour:Do you think that the Carter, the move higher in the memory stocks and semiconductors, socks, new high today, I mean, does this all look extended?

9:10Dan Nathan:It is extended. I mean, I think by any measure, whether you use a price oscillator or one wants to talk about valuation, you can always find a statistic to make your case, right? But we know that, again, the Sox is 100 % year-to-date and far above trend. And my hunch is that just as we got a quick drawdown last week, the week before, that kind of thing is out there. I would be hedging aggressively.

9:34Tim Seymour:Now to the U.S.-Iran deal framework. President Trump indicating it will be formally signed this Friday and the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened. CNBC's Megan Casella has a developing story from Geneva. Megan. Hey, Melissa, that's right. There's a lot of market optimism around this deal, that the text of which we are still waiting for. And at its core, it's a memorandum of understanding that extends the ceasefire for 60 days while launching a new round of technical talks led by the vice president on all of the most difficult issues. That's Iran's nuclear program and, in exchange, sanctions relief and the unfreezing of Iranian assets.

10:07Now, a few of the top-line details that we've heard from officials throughout the day today. The first is that this has already been digitally signed by the president, the vice president, and the Speaker of the Parliament in Iran. So both sides have already put pen to paper on this. This will be an immediate reopening, toll-free reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. But U.S. officials did acknowledge, of course, that it will take some time for traffic to get back to pre-war levels. And that timeline could be extended while there is still some uncertainty surrounding the strait. The sanctions relief for Iran will be performance-based.

10:36So no funds will be unfrozen. No sanctions will be lifted until we start to see Iran make some changes. And the signing ceremony, as you said, will be scheduled for Friday. Now, Melissa, one note on those tolls that I do want to flag here. This was a senior U.S. official talking with reporters earlier today who said that the no tolls is only guaranteed for 60 days. So far, Iran has only agreed to it for that time while these negotiations are ongoing. Now, the U.S. official said there are a lot of different ideas of what exactly it will look like at the end of those 60 days. They say the U.S.'s position is still for no tolls.

11:08But the quote here was that there are some other options that people in the region may like better, and we will entertain those. So a lot of questions to be addressed still there on what exactly the reopening of the strait will look like for the long term and whether something like tolls or some other arrangement might still be in place. That's going to be one of the biggest questions when the G7 leaders are meeting tomorrow. And I'll flag here, too, that President Trump has a number of meetings with Middle Eastern leaders on his schedule. He'll be sitting down with the heads of the UAE and Qatar tomorrow, and there will also be a working lunch with all of the G7 leaders and Middle Eastern leaders as well.

11:42So lots of time there to be discussing all of these questions on the strait, on what a long-term resolution might look like, on whether, as some G7 leaders have said today, they might like to be pivoting away from relying on the Strait of Hormuz over the long term. Lots to be discussed. All of this top of mind tomorrow. Melissa?

11:59Tim Seymour:In terms of the no tolls, Megan, I mean, what are some of the other proposals that could possibly, you know, satisfy the Trump administration? I mean, it was very clear that they didn't want any tolls in any way. Absolutely. And I will say, you know, U.S. officials have continued to emphasize throughout today that that is still their position moving forward. They say they're explicit in the MOU that the straits will be open toll free for 60 days. Really what this signals is that Iran still feels like they have some leverage here, that they have exercised their leverage over the strait in really an unprecedented way over the past few months of this war.

12:34And now they're trying to see how much more that they can get. So the U.S. side still says no tolls. It's not clear what anyone else in the region would be OK with. Tolls are, of course, when you talk about other arrangements, that's what comes top of mind. And they would have to get creative to possibly find some sort of a middle ground that would satisfy both the U.S. and Iran. But we've already heard G7 leaders, France and the U.K., leading the way here, saying Europe is ready to play its part on demining the strait, on clearing it, on making sure that it's fully reopened. That is the key for these European leaders who never wanted to get into this war in the first place.

13:06They want to make sure that it's fully reopened. So we'll see a lot of pressure on that. When Qatar and the UAE and some other Middle Eastern leaders are here tomorrow, you've got to think that this is going to be really what they're most focused on as well. if there's any sort of compromise that would give Iran more than what it had before this war started, but still less than a full toll that all sides could be OK with.

13:29Tim Seymour:All right. Megan, thank you. Megan Casella. The countdown is on to Wednesday's Fed decision, the first with Kevin Warsh at the helm of the Central Bank. For more, let's bring in Joe Zidl, former chief investment strategist at Blackstone. He now runs Zidl Macro Strategy Group. Joe, great to have you with us. Thanks for having me back. Do the developments with the MOU change your outlook for how the Fed can sound, hawkish or dovish? Yeah, it's a good question. First thing I say is there's a lot that we still don't know about the direction of oil prices and what happens over the course of the next 60 days.

14:00My view is the inflationary challenge that the Fed faces right now is only one part due to oil prices. But there are many other moving parts here that the Fed's going to deal with. And if you look at that inflation picture, inflation was already accelerating before oil prices moved up. There was an inflection point in the CPI and PCE data way back in January when these things started to firm up. And then obviously higher oil prices really added more pressure to the Fed. But if you think about these higher oil prices, even if we do get a resolution over the course of the next 60 days and we do get more certainty on oil, we know these things tend to go up like in elevators and come down in escalators, right?

14:39It's going to take time even for lower oil prices if we ultimately get there to filter through to the larger economy. I think there's a bigger inflationary problem that the Fed faces. And I think Warsh's first Fed meeting, I think he takes over the Fed at a really interesting time because you've got these multiple cross currents. You've got a number of other things are going to be called in question, particularly around what is the forward communication policy look like for the Fed. And so I think it's a super important meeting over the course of the next couple of days.

15:03Dan Nathan:You know, the president was asked a question about inflation last week, and he said it. And I love inflation, but in the context of inflation is good because it suggests the economy is doing better and all those things. I don't want to take it out of context. My point is, is somebody in his ear saying, you know what, rates going higher are foregone conclusion. Let's pivot and say rates are going higher for the right reasons and maybe take some of the heat off the Fed. Yeah, and you're absolutely right about, you know, some aspects of inflation being good and healthy. You know, in an inflationary environment, it's sort of like, well, I'm going to spend today because the price of something is going to go up tomorrow.

15:35If you think about the alternative, it would be deflation. And Japan faced deflation for 25 years. There's a reason why the Japanese are the best, highest savers in the world, because for 25 years they walked around in a deflationary environment thinking, why spend today? Because the prices are going to go down tomorrow. So a little bit of inflation is healthy. The challenge here is that the inflationary backdrop or picture in my mind is really about AI. AI is inflationary. And if you think about AI, there's a, you know, over the last couple of years, It's been a trillion dollar sort of build out in AI.

16:06It's the largest build out that the United States has seen since the railroads in the 1870s through 1890s. And and you can't build all that overnight. It's created a lot of shortages. There's shortages in terms of commodities and supply chains. There's massive shortage in labor. I think there's something like four hundred thirty nine thousand construction. I think the construction is short four hundred thirty nine thousand workers. You've seen companies like Meta and Google now introducing worker training programs to try to get more people into construction. I think Meta committed$115 million to a job training program.

16:38Google another 50. I would do that for a couple reasons. Number one, it would make me handy around the house. Number two, it would be kind of a cool way to get Google or Meta on my resume. So, you know, we do have these shortages out there, and I think it's going to be a challenge for the Fed.

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16:52Dan Nathan:Do you think, given what's happened to the front end of the curve, they change it all the way they fund the deficit ongoing? Yeah, it's a good question. I don't get overly concerned about the way the deficit is funded because, you know, when you think about it, the United States is still the reserve currency. We're always going to attract the flows because simply there is no other sort of currency out there in the world that can compete against the dollar. So I don't get overly concerned about it. If they do sort of change the way they fund it, maybe they push out a little bit further on the curve to try to bring the 10-year Treasury down a little bit.

17:21That certainly could occur. My personal view on the 10 years that it ought to be at these levels or maybe even a little bit higher. My personal view on the 10 years, it sort of generally reflects the U.S. economy. Right. So over time, it sort of gravitates toward, you know, sort of like GDP plus inflation, like the nominal economy. So, you know, we could see some shift along the curve. But generally speaking, I think the real action here is in the underlying fundamental economy. It continues to be pretty strong and it continues to be pretty strong in the face of, you know, sort of higher the prospects of higher rates.

17:54I think we're in a pretty good spot.

17:56Tim Seymour:Last time you were on, you talked about insurance rate hikes and you expected one by the end of the year, two in 12 months. Does that view still stand? I think we will see at least one this year. I think there's a possibility that we might even see two before the end of the year, simply because if we think about where we were between, say, the April 28th, 29th meeting of the Fed. Right. And that meeting came out with the most divisive Fed that we'd ever seen. There are four decents, most divisive Fed since 1992. Since then, the inflationary data has only deteriorated. It's only gotten a little bit worse.

18:30So where I thought there was room for one insurance hike in 2026, I think we might actually see two. Two insurance hikes is actually something that the market still can digest. Generally, the market responds pretty positively to insurance hikes. We saw it in 1997. What the market doesn't react well to is full hiking cycles. So I think if we pivot from one to two hikes, you know, mid-cycle adjustments, into something that looks more like a full tightening cycle, that's a much different conversation to be had. I don't think we're there yet.

18:58Tim Seymour:Joe, great to see you. If this macro thing doesn't work out, we know where you're headed. Give me a hammer. Exactly, in a hard hat. Joe's idol. Julie Beal, a rate hike or a couple rate hikes could also build the credibility of Kevin Warsh as an independent Fed chair. Yeah, I think that's an important point, too. A lot of what it seems like he wants to do is change process more so than necessarily the direction of interest rates. And I think that's a good approach, right, because we don't know how the data is going to be trending. But I think some process in terms of taking away how they do their forecasting, It takes away a little bit of the visibility.

19:37I would argue that probably we should be independent of it rather than relying so heavily on the dot plot. But I do think it's going to be a tricky time for him to be able to incorporate all of the data that's coming in a stronger job market than what we started with in the year. and this kind of insatiable CapEx demand that is price insensitive and could really have a profound impact on the economy, both in terms of putting money into people's pockets, which I think is a great thing, but also in terms of straining inflation for a lot of the components that are being used.

20:14Tim Seymour:Meantime, let's check out gold climbing higher today, jumping more than two and a half percent, adding to Friday's three percent gain. Miners also rallying. The GDX gold mining ETF jumping 6.5 percent. Newmont, Agnico and Barrick all with sizable gains. Do you think this continues?

20:29Dan Nathan:I do. And Carter was on this last week, so he caught the bottom as usual. The GDX is in a downtrend since February-ish, but I think we're about to break to the upside. And I think, look, I was surprised at how poorly gold traded over the last couple of weeks. I didn't think we'd get through the 200-day to the downside. It did, but it's recaptured it. And I think we're going to start to accelerate here. And now this could be the environment where gold actually rallies on the back of higher rates. So stick around for this. I mean, it should get more than one day. But to be down 37 percent from its peak, it's just a lot.

21:00Dan Nathan:And even if you're very bearish on gold, the sequencing would call for some sort of bounce. And I think this is the beginning of what should be a multi-day move.

21:08Tim Seymour:Coming up, SpaceX still in orbit. Shares taking off after Friday's record-breaking debut. The volume in the stock's first full trading day and where traders see this one heading. plus Uber's five-star advertising plan, how the rideshare giant is partnering with Google and Meta, and if the move can fuel shares to new heights. Don't go anywhere. Fast Money's back in two.

21:30From college send-offs to retirement dreams, life is filled with many important milestones. And making sure you have a plan in place to protect the people you love can give you confidence for whatever comes next. State Farm Life Insurance can help protect your family's financial well-being through life's milestones. Your State Farm agent can help you choose flexible coverage you can adjust as your family's needs change. Contact your local State Farm agent today. Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there. Never bet against American grit or American energy. Through innovation, Venture Global is not only building some of the largest energy facilities in the world right here in the United States, but delivering American energy at a fraction of the cost in a fraction of the time.

22:18So while others are busy talking, we're busy building. That's Venture Global. That's unstoppable energy.

22:31Traditional home security only alerts you after a break-in, and that's too late. SimpliSafe is changing that.

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23:01Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. It is day two for SpaceX public trading and its first full day of trading after its historic debut on Friday. The shares surging 20 % today and are up 43 % from its initial pricing of$135. The company said it has now raised$85.7 billion after underwriters exercised their green shoe option to sell additional shares. Robinhood also getting a boost from the SpaceX retail activity, which is driving app downloads. That's stuck up 5 % today and 15 % in just one week. So the ripple effects are certainly out there.

23:36Dan Nathan:Yeah, I actually think it's got to go to 200. I mean, easily. It's just the sort of gravitational pull of that round number. I think it'll go there. And yeah, it just is like spinning money off to anyone remotely related. It's which is kind of amazing, actually. But, you know, I think Elon was out maybe making projections, which I think you're not really supposed to do. But SEC rules have never been his thing. He can do it. I know we were talking about what are they going to do? Fine him. OK. I've got a trillion dollars. Go ahead. So, you know, that's Elon being Elon. You know, as a value investor, it's sort of hard to get on board.

24:11Dan Nathan:Two of the businesses, they're all interesting businesses, but the ones that are actually where you have some value of revenue, you can see, that's more interesting to me. But that's not where the bulk of the value is in the stock.

24:22Tim Seymour:We should note that there are at least eight or so ETFs based on SpaceX, 2X, inverse. Every flavor under the sun on SpaceX exists there. And then options should start trading tomorrow, which will be interesting.

24:37Dan Nathan:Fast-tracked in the NDX. I mean, so what the tangential plays continue to be, look at the way Goldman Sachs traded. Obviously, Citi had nothing to do with this, basically. But, you know, Citi in the banking world continues to trade extraordinarily well. The Nasdaq, as it should, because that was flawless in terms of execution. And, you know, you don't have to hear Elon Musk. Listen to what Ron Barron said today on the network. I think he talked about a$10 trillion pathway for revenue over the next five years or so, which is obviously a vast multiple of what they're doing now. And he has been and continues to be extraordinarily bullish on everything Elon Musk related.

25:11Dan Nathan:And quite frankly, he's been right to be.

25:13Tim Seymour:He has been right, Julie, hasn't he? Yeah, I mean, of course, of course. It's not just that there's a struggle with the valuation in this business specifically. If you spend a lot of time in the S1, which I did because I'm a nerd, a lot of the disclosures are things that give me pause, even on the good businesses, like the connectivity business. But I think even if you just look at the deals that they announced with Google, if you do the calculation and compare the price that they're giving that compute to Anthropic versus Google, Google's paying almost twice as much as what Anthropic is. Google, this like well-established company.

25:50Why is that? It's because they own 6 % of SpaceX. They have a real incentive to make this company look amazing. That's the kind of stuff that makes me worried.

26:00Tim Seymour:Carter, I'm not going to ask you about the charts because there is no chart at this point.

26:04Dan Nathan:It's funny, I get, you know, sometimes PMs will call and say, what do you think of this one? And I have insufficient price history, no pattern to interpret.

26:12Tim Seymour:When is a pattern enough for you?

26:14Dan Nathan:I mean, I guess six months is enough to have, because you need price discovery, right? Right. People having bought, having sold, people having lost money, made money, people having tried to short it. And then you can lay out, you know, a range and see where you might be headed based on that. Do you ever use a totally different stock as a potential model for what price discovery might be here or what a pattern could be? Well, I suppose in a commodity, if you're going to look at Dow and DuPont or trucking companies, then there's a high. But I'm not sure what one. Own animal. Yeah, it's its own animal.

26:46Tim Seymour:Coming up, the ad deal boosting shares of Uber. And we'll ask if our traders see green lights ahead for the stock. You're watching Fast Money Live from the Nasdaq Market Site in Times Square. Back right after this.

27:03From college send-offs to retirement dreams, life is filled with many important milestones. And making sure you have a plan in place to protect the people you love can give you confidence for whatever comes next. State Farm Life Insurance can help protect your family's financial well-being through life's milestones. Your State Farm agent can help you choose flexible coverage you can adjust as your family's needs change. Contact your local State Farm agent today. Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there. At Venture Global, we think about what can be done, not what's usually done. Through innovation, Venture Global is not only building some of the largest energy facilities in the world right here in the United States, but delivering American energy at a fraction of the cost and a fraction of the time.

27:53So while others are busy talking, we're busy building. That's Venture Global. That's unstoppable energy. Traditional home security only alerts you after a break-in. And that's too late. SimpliSafe is changing that.

28:10Dan Nathan:Stop. This is SimpliSafe. Police are on the way. We don't just alert. We stop crime before it starts. SimpliSafe. Plan starting around a dollar a day. Save 50 % on your new system with professional monitoring at simplisafe.com slash sxm or with promo code sxm. Outdoor deterrence requires a SimpliSafe Active Guard outdoor protection plan starting at$49.99 a month. Visit simplisafe.com slash licenses for alarm license information. Tennessee 2012.

28:34Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. Uber shares up nearly 6 % after announcing new advertising plans. A rideshare app will sell off-site advertising for the first time outside of its own platform, as well as new ad formats like sponsor discounts and brand takeovers on Uber Eats. Advertisers will be able to use the company's first-party data to reach consumers on Meta and Google Shopping. Both of those stocks popping on the news. This seems really logical. I feel like it should have existed before.

29:01Dan Nathan:Yes, it should have. I mean, Uber, I can see why Uber was up so much. I mean, the margin differential between an advertising business and what Uber currently is doing is very big. Although for those other two, this is a small partnership. Something else was going on in Meta. Maybe it's just the and Google, actually, just the Mag7 bid overall. But I mean, maybe Uber has finally bottomed. I think so. I mean, the low teens price earnings with revenue growth that justifies a much higher valuation and earnings growth as well. As you remember, Melissa, Uber was the you in my tube. I mean, that's coming going.

29:39Dan Nathan:And analysts have one hundred five dollar price target on it. I mean, I think it's finally sort of hitting its stride. And I think it goes, they don't report until August 4th. I think it goes higher in earnings.

29:48Tim Seymour:Quick on the charts? Yeah. Small. Small long. Let's not pound the table. All right. Coming up, the future of perpetual futures. CFTC Chair Michael Selleck joins us next to dig into the asset class taking Wall Street by storm and why the contracts are storing up so much controversy. The details from Fast Money Returns.

30:10Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money Stocks surging to kick off the holiday shortened week. The Dow jumping 469 points, closing at a record high. The S &P up more than 1.5 percent. And the Nasdaq soaring more than 3 percent, posting its best day since the end of March. All three indices now on three-day winning streaks. Shares of DoorDash jumping nearly 12 percent. Analysts highlighting the move lower in oil, helping some fuel-sensitive names. DoorDash still is down 25 percent this year. Now to the surge in popularity of perpetual futures or perps. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission approving prediction market operator Calci late last month to trade Bitcoin perps.

30:45Tim Seymour:But that decision has divided the markets and both sides of the debate have happened right here on Fast Money. The way perpetuals are set up, they incite bad behavior. Why? Because of the way the funding rate works.

30:57Dan Nathan:So if you're short a market and I'm long in the market, I'm right. I still have to pay you even though you're wrong. So that could incent you to trade even more because, you know, if it goes against you, I have to fund your bad position. They're simpler, they're cheaper and they're more accessible for consumers.

31:13Tim Seymour:The regulator at the center of this debate joined us now, CFTC Chair Michael Selig. He's been instrumental in approving perpetual futures. Michael, great to have you with us. Thanks for having me. What do you say to the people who are against perpetual futures? Too late? This is what we've done and that's the way it is? Well, incumbents are always going to fear the future, but we're looking forward. We saw this product flourishing offshore. The product has been around for a very long time. We've also had very similar products, perpetual style contracts listed here in the U.S. for just about a year now.

31:46And it's time to approve regulated futures contracts that have no expiration date. These are perpetual futures contracts. They trade very similarly to other types of contracts within our markets. But, of course, they don't expire. And that's good for investors in many cases. They don't have to roll their positions. And we're going to make sure the product's available, but it's well regulated here in the U.S.

32:06Tim Seymour:One of the arguments that was presented to us by Terry Duffy of the CME Group is that perpetuals aren't a futures contract because there is no expiration date. And that you guys change the definition of a futures contract. You change the notion of futurity under the Commodities Exchange Act, which is an act passed by Congress, which only Congress has a right to change. How do you respond to that? What gives you the authority to change what the definition of a futures contract is? That's completely not true. The Commodity Exchange Act does not define the term futures contract. Actually, believe it or not, the term is not used in the act.

32:42The term used in our act is a contract for future delivery. And that's been interpreted over the years by the courts. And we've looked to the court's interpretation there. The commission's also interpreted the term in many contexts, as it has the authority to do, as the regulator that's responsible for interpreting the act. And the courts have looked to various factors. They've looked to the notion of futurity. So that doesn't necessarily mean a fixed delivery or end date for the contract or an expiration. It looks at the question of a future price, future value. We've had cash-settled derivatives contracts for a very long time in the United States.

33:15These contracts, of course, are cash settled like others. And there's exchanges of payments made in the future. On a daily basis, there's a funding rate. And the long or short is going to pay the funding rate each day. So these are no different than other types of products in our markets. And we in the United States under the Trump administration are looking to bring novel derivatives products within the regulatory framework. And this is just another example of how we're delivering results for the American people.

33:41Tim Seymour:I understand the point that you made in terms of these perpetual futures contracts existing overseas. Has there been increased pressure more recently because of the rise of the predictions market, specifically of Calci and Polymarket U.S.? And has there been more sort of political pressure in any way on your agency to do this, maybe because the Trump administration wants to bring in these products of the future, Maybe also because Donald Trump Jr. serves as a paid strategic advisor to Calci and serves as an advisor to Polymarket as well. Is there any connection? These sort of insinuations are laughable.

34:18This has nothing to do with prediction markets. We've seen every major exchange, incumbent, virtually all incumbents, and many of the new entrants wanting to list this product. It's better for investors. It allows for investors to keep their position open without having to roll the contract. It's nothing novel or unique. We've seen other participants list the same product. So this has nothing to do with Kalshi. Of course, they were the first to green light the product on their platform, but there are many others that have done so in the time since. And we're willing and looking forward to work with all market participants who want to innovate, whether they're new or old.

34:56Tim Seymour:So to be clear, there is no political pressure. It doesn't matter. The Donald Trump Jr. connection, that doesn't matter at all in this process. That's absolutely absurd, that insinuation. Does the approval of the Perpetuals Futures contract for crypto, does that pave the way for other asset classes? Is that something that you are considering? We're evaluating it. I've said since day one that we're going to look at this on an asset by asset basis. It's not one size fits all. There are assets that work for Perpetuals. And we were very clear coming out with an order on this point. We put out a kind of a rule, essentially, or interpretation on prediction markets or perpetual contracts, rather, as well as 24-7 markets.

35:39And we were very clear in that interpretation that this is not one size fits all. We will look at each asset individually, and some products may work and others may not. We're not going to force things into a new framework or allow things into that framework that are going to create regulatory issues. The entire approach here is premised upon the notion of we want innovation in our markets, but we want responsible innovation. We want to make sure that these novel products fit within our regulatory framework. We're applying these same sorts of regulatory standards and requirements to these new products that we apply to others.

36:13It's not pushing things square peg round hole. It's finding tailored rules and regulations and making sure that the same sorts of controls and investor protections are in place for these new products as that we have for other types of products within our regulatory framework.

36:27Tim Seymour:You mentioned investor protections, and it's not necessarily in the purview of the CFTC to protect investors and make sure the products are suitable, but some would argue that perpetual futures contracts are dangerous to the average investor who may not understand the role of the funding rate mechanism, for instance, in holding this contract and the cost of that funding rate mechanism and how it can actually erode the value of their position. Is that at all a concern of you, or is that just sort of that's on the consumer, that's on the investor, the trader who decides to enter into a perpetual futures contract?

37:03Well, we have all sorts of novel products within the markets today. We've got zero-day options. We've got swap contracts. We've got all sorts of futures contracts. This is just another type of novel derivative instrument within our markets. And of course, there's an obligation on the exchanges to disclose all this information to the traders. It's no different than anything else. And I think the notion that we should be paternalistic and allow for one type of product because it's easier to understand, I think that's frankly a misunderstanding itself because, of course, options are very complicated.

37:34These products aren't super complicated if you look at the terms of the contract. So we're going to regulate them. We're going to make sure the terms are out there. We're going to make sure there's proper disclosure. And to the extent that there's questions around suitability, of course, the brokers have to make those calls and make sure that they're evaluating the customers that are trading in their markets.

37:53Tim Seymour:And then last question on future potential products. So I'm just curious, Michael, if you actually looked at or watched sort of the hyperliquids of the world in the lead up to the debut of SpaceX, the SpaceX IPO, and you saw how pretty accurately they predicted where SpaceX would end up on the first day of trading. I mean, does that sort of give you a window into the sorts of products that could actually be appropriate? It demonstrates that innovation is happening throughout the world. We want it to happen here. We saw Hyperliquid and all of these offshore platforms really offer novel products that turned out to be very accurate in terms of their ability to forecast the price of the IPO in this context and also have impacted our markets.

38:39We're seeing 24-7 oil contracts that are impacting the U.S. markets. And so, of course, we're cognizant of things happening offshore and recognizing that it's possible that we need to move faster because of these novel innovations happening offshore. Our approach is very much eyes wide open. We recognize that these products are available offshore, and if we don't create a regulated path here in the U.S., then the markets will just flood offshore. We've been clear from day one that if we don't take this opportunity create a regulatory framework for new products, things like crypto prediction markets, novel derivatives like perpetuals.

39:16These markets will develop. They won't develop in the U.S. perhaps, but they will develop offshore. And U.S. persons will find ways to access them. They will certainly go offshore to trade these products because they have true demand for them. So, we're excited to get these products here in the U.S. and make sure that there's really strong and robust regulatory controls around the products.

39:35Tim Seymour:So it's just a matter of not if, but when. I mean, it will happen, it sounds like. We believe so. Yeah. Michael, thanks so much for joining us. We do appreciate it. Thank you. And a quick note here, CNBC and Calci have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment. We've had all sides of this debate on fast.

39:58Dan Nathan:This is the third or fourth conversation we've had about it. I mean, there's clearly there's some argument as to what how the law is written. And Terry brought up his side of the coin. He said the law states that at best these are swaps, not futures. Michael's suggesting otherwise I guess that will get litigated. What I will say is at the center of innovation for decades now has been CME Group. So once the rules are established and the law is established, I guarantee you that they will adopt. Thoughts? I'm not quite sure what to make of it, to be honest. I mean, the part of the prediction market that I find so interesting is something that actually came up today about what's a peace deal.

40:35Dan Nathan:Right. Right? Yeah. How do you actually determine what is the bet that you are actually making? But, I mean, it's here to stay, and I think it's just going to get bigger and bigger.

40:48Tim Seymour:Coming up, Fox scooping up Roku for more than$20 billion, what the combination will look like and the impact it will have on the streaming wars. Fast Money's back in two.

41:02Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. Some moves in the media space. Fox announcing it will buy streaming platform Roku for$22 billion. Roku shares slightly lower today after a 20 percent jump on Friday and speculation of a potential sale. And Fox, the worst performer in the S &P 500 today, posting its worst day ever. Julia Borson's got deal details. Julia.

41:20Dan Nathan:Melissa, Fox share is plummeting down over 15 percent today on concerns the company is overpaying with Roku. And now with this deal, Fox is going all in on streaming and on ads. This deal combines Fox's ad supported streamer Tubi with Roku's very similar ad supported channel. Roku brings 100 million global streaming households and Fox brings its valuable live sports rights. Now, together, this deal will create what will be the fourth largest player in U.S. television by share of viewing with about 10 percent. That would be behind a merged Paramount Warner Brothers Discovery and YouTube, each with 13 percent and Disney with 11 percent.

42:00Dan Nathan:Now, bears warn of this deal that Roku's value is in part due to its neutrality to distribute a range of apps. And for Fox investors, this deal is a massive questionable shift in strategy. Evercore downgrading the stock today, but Moffitt Nathanson with a hold on both Roku and Fox,

42:19Tim Seymour:warning, quote, Fox needs to ensure Roku's independence and selling its platform to other media companies isn't put at risk, while also trying to mitigate any cannibalization from

42:29Dan Nathan:keeping two different fast channel brands. Now, Mel, this deal is such a close in the first half of next year, but it's fascinating to see those stocks move in the wake of this big news.

42:39Tim Seymour:Yep. Julia, thank you. Julia Boorstin. Julie Beal, what are your thoughts on this tie-up? I think it's pretty tricky because the conflict is not something that they have any experience managing. And part of what I think has been beneficial for Fox is they've been very disciplined in their acquisition strategy. Their balance sheet has been clean. And I think that's helped them. I've kind of thrown that all away, chasing after some streaming business that I can see that they're really trying to get the growth, but I don't know if it necessarily fits into the longer term distribution strategy for them.

43:11And I think that the conflicts are understated for sure.

43:15Dan Nathan:If you think it's a bad deal, that's what, but to say they overpaid, which is why it's off as much as it is, I think that's foolish. If they had paid$19 billion, we'd be happier. I think it's either the right move and it's a tactical move that's going to set them up. Rich Greenfield talked about it, or they did something they shouldn't have done. It's that simple. Overpaying in this environment, I don't think means anything. And the stock is probably historically as cheap as it's been right now.

43:38Tim Seymour:Coming up, why the chart master thinks Amazon's June drop is overdone. And if the technicals are pointing to a prime pop, more Fast Money in two.

43:56Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. Amazon under pressure over the last few weeks, down more than 9 % since the start of June. The stock is up 3 % today, but the chart master says the stock could deliver an even bigger bounce. Carter Braxton Worth, a worth charting, is over at the Telestrator.

44:10Dan Nathan:Get right to it. So, I mean, what a bust. I mean, here's things to compare it to, but it's all-time high May 5th. Tech sector, Nasdaq 100, the market itself, consumer discretion, of which it's a big part even compared to Walmart. I mean, bringing up the rear here, and I think that's an opportunity. So let's look at the first chart. There are, as always, no lines, no judgments. Let's put some lines and conclusions in. The next iteration. This is important. The stock has dropped, again, 16 % over six weeks, almost straight down. But the most important thing is where it is. So final chart, it is down to the penny to its rising 150-day moving average.

44:49Dan Nathan:So my thinking here is you play this for a bounce. It is such an outlier compared to almost any other sector, big stock, big theme. And it bounced today. This is from a Sunday night report. I think the bounce continues. Karen, that's music to your ears. It is indeed, yes. I mean, you know, I like this company, especially if they do lower valuation. I think that it's a lot priced in for the fear of, okay, they're spending so much money. They can afford to spend so much money. So, and, you know, I think both businesses, retail and AWS are just killing it. So I like it a lot. 150-day moving averages, Carter said, to the penny, as he also said.

45:31Dan Nathan:And valuation-wise, I mean, you're getting Amazon here, what, Karen, 24 times next year's numbers, which is historically pretty cheap. So I know that's not a timing mechanism. I get it. But I like Amazon here as well. Yeah.

45:42Tim Seymour:Julie, quick thoughts? Yeah, no, I agree. I think that this is probably the one that's the most undervalued in the AI trade. I think they're thoughtful about how they spend money. And, yeah, it's got a good positioning. You mentioned the other side of the business, which is interesting, because it's got the AI side and then, of course, consumer. And you would think with the, you know, if the war is really over, that's like a real additional boost. Oil prices come down.

46:04Dan Nathan:But I also think, I mean, they're in such a great spot. If you look at where Walmart trades, that's not what the market is assigning to Amazon's retail business. Something much lower, and I think it should be higher.

46:15Tim Seymour:Yeah. Up next, final trades.

46:33Tim Seymour:Final trade time. Let's go around the horn. Julie Beal. Well, we just watched Mel do an outstanding interview of Michael Selig. And so I really believe journalism is more important in an AI world. So New York Times is my pick. Birthday boy, Carter Braxton Worth.

46:48Dan Nathan:Amazon, got to do it. Sell off to a level where rebound potential is high. Karen. I really like when Carter and I converge on a name, so I like Amazon as well, but that was already taken for the final trade. So instead, I'm doing XLE, which we talked about before, the real energy trade intact. Folks at home should know Melissa Lee watch every minute of Game 5 of the NBA Finals. Every minute of the first 10. That's the one you really want to see, the first 10.

47:17Tim Seymour:All right. Thank you for watching Fast Money. Mad Money with Jim Cramer starts right now.

47:46Neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Fast Money Disclaimer, please visit CNBC.com forward slash Fast Money Disclaimer. Traditional home security only alerts you after a break-in. And that's too late. SimpliSafe is changing that.

48:03Dan Nathan:Stop. This is SimpliSafe. Police are on the way. We don't just alert. We stop crime before it starts. SimpliSafe. Plan starting around a dollar a day. Save 50 % on your new system with professional monitoring at simplisafe.com slash sxm or with promo code sxm. Outdoor deterrence requires a SimpliSafe Active Guard outdoor protection plan starting at$49.99 a month. Visit simplisafe.com slash licenses for alarm license information. Tennessee 2012.

From the publisher

A pending peace deal with Iran sparks optimism as oil prices fall and the Dow hits an all-time high. The traders discuss what investors can expect from a potential end to the war and how that impacts the Fed decision at Warsh’s first meeting as chairman later this week. SpaceX also soaring on its second day on the market, now reaching over 25% since its debut and raising over $85 billion. Then, Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chair Michael Selig talks all things perpetual futures and what regulation of prediction markets could look like. Plus, Fox Corporation seeing its worst day ever after announcing a potential Roku acquisition, and why kids in the UK might be logging off social media for good.

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