In short
Fast Money (5/12/26) focuses on how hotter inflation is pushing bond yields higher and pressuring stocks, while investors still chase the AI trade.
Key claims
CPI rose at its fastest pace in nearly three years, driven by energy; services inflation is “sticky,” making quick rate cuts unlikely; global yields are hitting multi-year highs (Japan 10-year >2.5%, UK gilt 18-year highs, U.S. 30-year back above 5%).
Notable examples
tech down ~0.75% (Nvidia briefly dipped then finished up); hyperscalers committed ~$700B capex; SOXX rally led by AMD/Micron/Intel despite long-term execution concerns. Guests/participants: Karen Finerman, Dan Nathan, Guy Adami, Julie Biel (desk panel); Angelica Peebles (FDA commissioner update); Jared Hulse (Mizuho, pharma/FDA impact); Dan Ives (Wedbush, China/AI tech outlook). Also discussed: Amazon expanding 30-minute Amazon Now; eBay rejecting GameStop’s $56B bid; Trump’s China trip with 16 CEOs (Elon Musk, Tim Cook, David Solomon, etc.); FDA Commissioner Marty McCary stepping down.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Chapters
Tap a time to open that second in VOThe Impact of Rising Inflation on Markets
1:42 to 2:58
Discussion on how rising inflation and yields affect stock performance globally.
“We start off with the inflation jolts that ripple throughout the markets today.”
Assessing Market Reactions to Economic Indicators
2:58 to 5:32
Analysis of the current market conditions and how inflation is influencing investor behavior.
“And at some point the market wakes up and say, wait a second, maybe these valuations don't make sense in a higher yield environment.”
The Role of Semiconductor Stocks
5:32 to 8:00
Exploration of the semiconductor market's dynamics and investment potential amidst economic pressures.
“I mean, already with today's CPI report, it was 3.8 percent headline.”
FDA Leadership Changes and Their Implications
8:00 to 11:20
Overview of the FDA commissioner change and its potential impact on the pharmaceutical industry.
“You know, they're going to be creating all of this infrastructure that's going to be leveraged over the next 5 to 10 years.”
Investor Outlook on Pharma After FDA Resignation
11:20 to 14:00
Discussion on how the FDA's changes in leadership could affect biotech and pharma stocks.
“They hope to name a permanent successor in a matter of weeks, but it's too early to name potential replacements.”
FDA Controversies and Company Impact
14:00 to 18:43
Discussion on the impact of FDA leadership changes and how companies may respond.
“Angelica had touched on, for instance, the national priority vouchers and the questions about that.”
Delivery Updates and Market Reactions
18:44 to 19:42
Insights on delivery services, particularly Amazon and FedEx, and their market impact.
“We saw the reactions, Unicure, Replimune, also Moderna, some questions about whether or not vaccines, how they'll be viewed under a new FDA commissioner.”
Amazon's Delivery Service and Competitive Analysis
21:09 to 25:08
Analysis of Amazon's delivery service expansion and competitive positioning in the market.
“You've got to chill out and not come on too strong.”
eBay's Rejection of GameStop's Offer
25:09 to 28:00
Discussion on eBay's rejection of GameStop's takeover bid and implications for both companies.
“Obviously, the valuation reflects that, but I'd still rather go with the higher quality play.”
eBay's Current Standing and Market Dynamics
28:00 to 31:20
Discussion on eBay's recent performance, acquisitions, and market valuation.
“I remember a case that they were making about all the data that they have.”
Show all 19 chapters
Transition to Upcoming Topics
31:20 to 31:45
Brief transition before discussing Trump's trip to China.
Trump's China Trip: Implications and Attendees
31:45 to 35:28
Analysis of Trump's upcoming China trip and its potential impacts on U.S. CEOs.
“investors digested this morning's hotter-than-expected CPI data.”
Tech Market Trends and Analyst Insights
35:28 to 38:10
Expert insights on tech stocks, demand for chips, and future market directions.
“Yeah, I think, I mean, that definitely is a play.”
Analyzing Gold Miners and Market Sentiment
38:10 to 41:41
Discussion on gold miners' performance and investment strategies amid market changes.
“I think there's something really interesting happened today that we have mentioned.”
Discussion on Gold Valuation and Market Trends
42:05 to 43:25
The hosts discuss the current valuation of gold and its place in investment portfolios.
“It was a great, listen, valuation is not a problem, although it's more expensive than a Newmont, for example.”
Small Caps and Investment Opportunities
43:25 to 45:38
Julie Beal analyzes the performance of small-cap stocks and highlights specific companies.
“the Russell 2000 nearly doubling the gains of the S &P 500 since the beginning of the year, up nearly 15 percent.”
Final Trades and Market Insights
45:38 to 46:52
The hosts share their final trades and reflect on the evening's discussions.
“But most of the business is really kind of the core infrastructure that I think has more earning stability to it.”
Final Trades and Market Insights
47:10 to 47:26
The hosts share their final trades and reflect on the evening's discussions.
Final Trades and Market Insights
47:31 to 47:44
The hosts share their final trades and reflect on the evening's discussions.
“You've handled drop-off, emails, walk the dog, and it's only noon.”
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:00Introducing the Total Solutions Advantage only from Comcast Business. It's the largest, fastest fiber-powered network for small business. Gig speeds with equipment and security included, and a five-year price lock. No one does business like Comcast Business. Switch today. Get started for$60 a month for 12 months when you add an advanced solution to a qualifying internet package. Limited time offer. Restrictions apply. New customers only. Requires 300 megabits per second internet, security edge, and additional qualifying service. One-year agreement, paperless billing, and auto pay with bank account required.
0:29Taxes and fees extra. At Edward Jones, we believe rich is more than caring about the latest and greatest. It's also taking care of what gives your life meaning. That's why your dedicated financial advisor meets you where you are with personalized financial strategies that help protect what matters so you can preserve your progress while creating a path forward. The key to being rich is knowing what counts. Let's find your rich together. Edward Jones, member SIPC. Live from the Nasdaq market site in the heart of New York City's Times Square, this is Fast Money. Here's what's on tap tonight. Rising inflation yields spiking here and around the world and stocks pulling back from records as inflation climbs to its highest rate in nearly three years.
1:14Are climbing yields a warning sign stocks should pay attention to? We'll debate that. Plus, delivery updates out of Amazon and FedEx. eBay passes on GameStop's offer. Surprise, surprise. Some big opportunity in small caps and a technical check on one of Guy's old clam stocks. Why the chartmaster says one gold miner could be losing its luster after shining bright over the last few years. I'm Melissa Lee. Come to you live from Studio B at the NASDAQ. On the desk tonight, Karen Finerman, Dan Nathan, Guy Dami and Julie Beal. We start off with the inflation jolts that ripple throughout the markets today.
1:46Headline CPI rising by its most in the three years, led by soaring energy prices, though food and shelter costs also rose sharply. that nudge the S &P fractionally lower, pushing tech stocks down nearly three quarters of a percent. But the real impact being felt in yields here and around the world. Japan's 10-year government bond yield topping two and a half percent now at 29-year highs. Over in Europe, the UK 10-year gilt hitting 18-year highs, while French and German notes hit near 15-year highs, with traders betting on ECB rate hikes. And here in the U.S., treasuries were weaker across the curve, two-year yields hitting their highest level since late March, the 10-year rising almost five basis points, while the 30-year yield reclaimed the 5 % level.
2:29So what message are all of these moves sending? Guy, what do you think? Well, inflation is a problem without question. This is a global thing as well. And I think there are also global credit concerns, but they have not manifested their way into our stock market for whatever reason. You know, we had a guest on last night. He talked about four and three quarters in a 10-year being sort of that line of demarcation, maybe, but at some point the market's going to wake up and say, hey, I understand yields are going higher because there's some growth here and the economy's not as bad as people like me say that is.
2:57But I think 70 % of it is there's an inflation problem and it's a real problem. And at some point the market wakes up and say, wait a second, maybe these valuations don't make sense in a higher yield environment. Yeah, but the market has to wake up, right? If you think about four, four, five in the 10 year, you know, last time we were here meaningfully was back in July at 2025 and you had an S &P that was 6 ,000, here it is at 7 ,400. It just doesn't seem to be bothered whatsoever. And obviously I think there's gonna be a point in which to guys with 475 or five, it's gonna matter that equity risk premium is something that's razor thin right now.
3:31And sooner or later when you have to have some sort of fundamental shift and it might not be something geopolitical, we've been talking about rising yields all over the world for a long time. I'm just a dumb stock and options guy. I don't know what that means, but it hasn't meant anything for a while, at least for our stock market. If you look at what's going on in the option market, it's a free-for-all. I mean, the skew to the call side is something that's very unique. You usually see it in times like this, maybe right before you're ready for a bit of a pullback. It just shows a level of euphoria that we haven't seen in a long time.
4:00But the one thing is like when we're waiting for a sell-off, I mean, just think of what we've had over the last few years. Every time the market sells off, we're making new highs in the not-so-distant future. This one's a runaway breakout here, and I just don't know how it's sustainable, but I'm not sure yields is going to be the thing right here. So I think the market is just sort of looking through this Iran conflict and that ultimately there'll be a resolution and things will calm down and that we will see oil come down. And so as that happens, that deflationary effect or less inflationary effect will be positive.
4:31However, you know, I think we've all said it, oil is not going back to where it was. It's going to a floor that is much higher than the old floor. So I do think that inflation is here to stay. I don't know if it's going to be this hot or not. We'll see. But I do think this tiny pullback, and this pullback is so tiny, what happened today, relative to what has been happening. It could hardly be called anything. I don't think that this is the end of the AI run. The spend is just too big. I don't know when it will happen. It will surely happen at some point. But I don't think this is the end of it.
5:09Could it go down more than here? Of course. And still have that be not a consequential move at all. But I think there's still optimism about oil coming down, inflation being under control. But we're far from a cut. I don't think we're anywhere near a cut. Yeah. Or should this work cut out? So if inflation remains higher for longer, at a higher level, if energy prices remain at a higher sort of base level, even if they come off, Julie Biel, I mean, the question is, can the consumer who's already stretched weather that? I mean, already with today's CPI report, it was 3.8 percent headline. Average hourly earnings increased 3.6 percent in the last read.
5:44So, you know, basically inflation is eating up wage gains at this point. That's trouble. It's for sure trouble. We know that any time we have this kind of outpacing of wage growth relative to overall inflation, that can be trouble. And we know that oil prices are more meaningful for the low-income consumer than they are for the mid - and higher-income consumer. It takes up more of their wages. So they're already very much under pressure. And I think what's important to note is when you peel apart the layers of CPI, what you're seeing is where is it sticky and stubborn, and that's in services. And I think that actually makes it a little bit harder to say that we're going to have a real big snapback very quickly.
6:25When we have services, inflation, it tends to be stickier than when we just have core goods deflation and inflation. So that's my concern, actually, is that the underlying dynamics are not just oil. We point to oil because it's really easy to point at. But actually, that other elements of the economy are quite strong and that that's causing a lot of upward pressure on pricing. That's fair. And again, inflation has been a problem. It continues to be a problem. Karen just mentioned Kevin Walsh is walking into a bus, so I agree. And now the fact that there's only one rate cut, I think, priced into September of 2027, and there's just so much chance of a rate hike over that period of time, I think is interesting.
7:02I think the good news at Karen's point is the S &P 500 is at an all-time high year. It doesn't seem to care. But at what point does it care? And I do think we're getting precariously close. I think the problem that the market's going to find is in the form of a bond move. That's something that Paul Tudor Jones said recently. And Jamie Dimon said the same thing a couple of weeks ago. The market wants to, though, continue to buy the AI trade. I mean, within underneath the surface, what you saw is semiconductors were down six percent at lows and they finished the day down three percent. NVIDIA, right, hit a new high, went down by a percent or so and then finished the day higher.
7:34I mean, there is this want to still cycle into these trades despite what's going on with the economy. Right. Because it's one of the things that I guess you can put your finger on that's working. I mean, Karen just said it. We just got earnings from the hyperscalers. They just committed to$700 billion in spend over the next 9 to 12 months. And, you know, again, that's been going on. It's been doubling. It's been doubling. But at some point, it's going to decelerate pretty meaningfully. We haven't seen a pullback in demand yet. If there is a pullback in demand, we're going to be looking at an overcapacity situation.
7:59You might say, well, that's great. You know, they're going to be creating all of this infrastructure that's going to be leveraged over the next 5 to 10 years. But the stock market has pulled forward a lot of that. If you look at the SOX, okay, the ETF that tracks the SOX index, the SOXX, not the SMH, which is really top-heavy to the names that have really outperformed. That's NVIDIA and Taiwan Semi. This thing, the SOXX, has rallied 70 % from its March lows, 70%. The top three holdings are AMD, Micron, and Intel. These are three companies that are darlings right now. But if you go and look back over the last 25 years, they've been dogs.
8:34These companies have misexecuted. They've missed entire, you know, segments or themes, you know, secular shifts in the market. and they're not good at manufacturing. And that's the Intel thing. Intel's gone back and forth, back and forth. They're going to be a fab. They're not going to be a fab. So I just don't know why you're going to buy the socks here when those three names have had these 200, 300 % rallies just in the last year. And they're driving the train in this thing. To me, I just feel like if you look at the socks that was down one point today, 5%, 6%. If we have an S &P that's down 5%, these are going to be down 15%, 20%.
9:08So did you say the last 25 years when you were talking about these names? Of course. I mean, like, but my point is the cyclical nature of them. And Intel missed almost every major technological ship. AMD was just an also ran for years and years. Well, I think it's hard to say AMD is terrible and Intel is terrible. What happened was that AMD got better, got way better. They still both suck. Well, I don't know. I didn't think. I mean, Jensen probably thinks they both suck. I don't know what Jensen thinks, but I don't know. Jensen's not particularly worried, OK, about AMD. and he hasn't been over the last three years.
9:43You know what I mean? And Intel, maybe they serve some sort of function now because he used to say, hopper's gonna be great for inference, but then a lot of folks are like, hopper's too expensive. And if you're telling me that the depreciation of these things is four, five, seven years, then why do I need to upgrade? Because I already bought these things, right? So all of a sudden now CPU clusters are gonna work. Well, they're gonna work until there's major advances and they're just not up to speed. So NVIDIA remains in the catbird seat despite all of this custom silicon, TPU, all this sort of stuff.
10:12Now, everyone is scattering really aggressively trying to get second, third sources, but that doesn't make these good companies. And really, we're not going to know for a while until we see this sort of performance. So to me, you know, have a ball. Go buy Intel from 20 to 125. Julie, your thoughts? I mean, would anyone here really want to own AMD or Intel for the next five years, eyes closed, go off to a desert island? Like, I wouldn't, right? I think that it's really in vogue in the same way that low-wasted genes have made a comeback, and that's horrific too. I just don't think that these are the highest of high-quality companies.
10:45They're just really benefiting from a cyclical trend and upswing. And, you know, just like low-wasted genes, this too shall pass. I hope. I hope. A wondrous hope. Now let's get to a big change at the FDA. Commissioner Marty McCary is officially out after more than a year at the helm of the agency. The details and the impact now from Angelica Peebles. Angelica. Hey, Melissa, So that's right. McCary is out and top food official Kyle Diamantis will step in as acting commissioner, a senior administration official telling me that McCary's ouster is really the result of a series of issues versus one final straw.
11:18That official says that they're moving quickly. They hope to name a permanent successor in a matter of weeks, but it's too early to name potential replacements. A new commissioner would need to be confirmed by the Senate, and it could be politically tricky right now, especially since they'll need the blessing of Senator Bill Cassidy. Remember, he nearly blocked RFK Jr.'s nomination and Trump endorsed Cassidy's opponent in his reelection bid. So that's a question mark. And in the meantime, McCary's departure leaves another hole at the FDA, where you already have acting directors leading some of the major senators, including those that oversee the regulation of drugs and biologic.
11:52Then there's the status of programs that McCary created, like the Commissioner's National Priority Voucher Pilot Program. And there's a hearing for that scheduled in June. So we'll have a sense of what happens there pretty soon, guys. Angelica, in terms of the acting heads of the two other centers for biologics and drug evaluation, was it up to McCary to appoint those? Or, I mean, why did those go? Why are they still vacant, effectively? Well, I think that's a big question mark, right? Because you, of course, you remember what happened with CBER. You had Vinay Prasad, who was McCary's pick, and he was very vocal.
12:25And arguably, you could say one of McCary's biggest problems. And so that now that we haven't seen a replacement could have to do with this. And we'll have to see exactly what direction that they take that in. And right now, the acting head of Cedar, Tracy Beth Hoag, is also seen as one of McCary's people. So that, I think, her status is a big question to me. What happens to her? Does she become permanent? And, you know, that has just been both of those positions have really gone through these back and forth. They've had people in and out really over the last year since McCary's been there. And so those are two positions that I would look forward to see.
13:00Do you see those named in the absence of a permanent commissioner? Or do we need to wait to have that next person come in and see who they decide to put there? But again, that could take some time. Yeah, it's been a real revolving door. Angelica, thank you. Angelica Peebles. For more now on the impact, today's resignation of the FDA commissioner will have on pharma and biotech. Let's bring in Mizuho's Jared Hulse. Jared, great to have you with us. I would think initially it's a positive, but then there's a whole unknown of, well, who's going to replace him? Right, exactly. That was my thought, too.
13:29I mean, on the surface, I think investors never really liked this Macari administration from the start. So I think you get a boost in valuation maybe over the near term. But again, we don't know whether the new, you know, acting commissioner, interim commissioner will stick around for too long. And if not, who that replacement will be? Will it be someone who's more aligned with RFK? Will it be someone who's not? So I think, yes, on the surface, positive, but a lot of questions here. What is the biggest outstanding issue in your mind? Angelica had touched on, for instance, the national priority vouchers and the questions about that.
14:08I mean, are there certain companies that have more on the line tied to what McCary has done at the FDA under his tenure so far? Well, I think companies like Unicure and Replimune and arguably Biohaven and Disc Medicine have all been in the crossharrows to some degree with respect to the FDA and some of the FDA decisions. And then what McCary and Prasad have said about those decisions and reversed them, flipped them, delayed them, what have you. So there have been controversies. Obviously, the index, the XBI, has been very good despite it all. So I've kind of been of the view that, yes, there's been some theatrics for sure, but it hasn't had a massive impact big picture.
14:50But I mean, realistically, let's say for Replimune, right, which had early indications that its experimental cancer drug would be approved and then there was a reversal there. They ultimately had to lay off 60 percent of their workforce afterwards. I mean, are they mortally wounded or is there actually hope if there is an FDA commissioner whose views are aligned in science and seen as more stable? Yeah, it's possible that it's not it's certainly not dead yet. A lot of these companies reincarnate over time and reinvent themselves and they have to go through things that are unfortunate, but then they they kind of find better footing.
15:23So, again, depending on who the personnel is, maybe there's a meeting of the minds that happens at some point and that can be rectified. Understanding it's a couple steps away, but can you make a through line to M &A activity in the space through the FDA, depending on who he or she is? that's a really tough one i think what it comes down to is if there is a there's a better sort of pattern between companies and the fda that's more predictable and we can look at what the agency has said to you know any party and we can bridge that through the development timeline to the approval timeline and large cap pharma is sort of on board and every everything sort of make sense from a general standpoint, then I think it will lead to more.
16:10You would have to think that if there is more visibility on these programs, then that will lead to more deals in time. I mean, we already think it's going to be a great year, of course, but could be better. How would you characterize the drug approval process under Marty McCary, just so we can gauge how that could change? I mean, was it that chaotic? Was there not a lack of transparency? were there a lot more unknowns than in other FDA commissioner tenures? I mean, not in my opinion, really. I mean, I know a lot of other investors and analysts across the street have said that this has been an incredibly disorganized administration at the FDA level so far.
16:50I think it's debatable. I think we can go back through the COVID years. There were a number of complete response letters and about faces that the FDA had when we thought there was line of sight and there actually weren't. it just it it's not totally clear whether we're ever going to be in a position where the first meeting between the FDA and any company in this industry is going to be sort of the final the final final with respect to timelines and how these development stage companies track we don't know the rules can change intermittently I think that's been the biggest issue that investors have had with Macari is that the FDA personnel employees have given some sort of feedback and then Macari and or other people under his leadership have said, actually, no, we're going to do it our way.
17:40You kind of want a commissioner here who's very hands-off and lets the FDA leadership do what it does and steps back unless there's a major ordeal. You don't really want someone that's as publicly facing, I don't believe, as Macari has been. So if you were Trump, would you pick someone that the RFK junior contingency would like, or would you go the other way and pick somebody different than that to sort of please as many people as you can? I mean, I think at the end of the day, you want someone who's not very controversial and, again, who will let the FDA, you know, the people that have worked for the FDA for a number of years and have the expertise kind of decide the fate of the companies in this industry and not meddle as much.
18:24I think that would be the preferential. What Trump decides to do is obviously impossible to call. I mean, it could be this interim, you know, the interim FDA head for a while. We don't know that, you know, that could last a number of years. That could last two weeks. Don't know. Jared, thank you. Thank you. Jared Hulse of Mizuho. We saw the reactions, Unicure, Replimune, also Moderna, some questions about whether or not vaccines, how they'll be viewed under a new FDA commissioner. Yeah, that's why I asked the question, because I think you can make a argument that in a new regime, you could have more M &A because you could potentially have more clarity and basically more stability in those seats.
19:08And it gives big cap pharma sort of the, I think, the confidence to sort of make these deals. I have to say this because over the last couple weeks, I've been dead wrong. Insmed, very quietly, has been cut in half since I think the last time he's been on. I don't think the story has changed at all. Obviously, the stock has, but I think there's a huge opportunity in INSM right now. All right, coming up, a delivery update. While your next prime package could be at your doorstep in just 30 minutes and what the CEO FedEx had to say about his company's recent rally, plus credibility concerns why eBay is shrugging off GameStop's takeover bid and the choice words they use to describe the offer, Don't go anywhere.
19:42Fast Money's back in two.
19:47This is Fast Money with Melissa Lee right here on CNBC.
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21:06Now sign this saying that I trained you or you're fired. Yes, ma 'am. Work relationships are too messy. I just met the woman of my dreams. You've got to chill out and not come on too strong. That goes against my entire personality, but I'll try. Watch Not Suitable for Work, now streaming on Hulu and Hulu on Disney Plus for bundle subscribers. Terms apply. Welcome back to Fast Money. Amazon announcing it will expand its 30-minute delivery service, Amazon Now, to more cities around the country as it lands the latest blow in the delivery wars. The service originally rolled out in Seattle and Philadelphia in December.
21:42Amazon Now delivers things like groceries, household essentials, and locally relevant items, but it's not cheap. $13.99 for non-Prime customers and$3.99 for Prime subscribers, plus a$2 fee for orders less than$15. They were allowed not Not enough to keep Amazon from getting caught in today's tech sell-off, nor was it enough to scare Target and Walmart investors, both of those Amazon competitors, jumping today. It is amazing how quickly you can get things and how quickly people want things and are willing to pay for things. But Julie, I'm wondering what you think this means for Amazon's business.
22:14Well, I mean, I always say that the worst thing that ever happened to the rest of retail was Amazon figuring out that they could sell excess capacity because it meant that they could really continue to invest aggressively in their go-to-market with their delivery business. And they have these really analog moats around the business in terms of delivery trucks and just like very physical infrastructure. And I think they're just continuing to plow money into that as they continue to be able to really generate a lot of revenue in their hyperscaler business and continue to be really relevant as a behemoth.
22:43The problem is, is it's really hard to find alternatives outside of Amazon once you're really hooked in. And I think that they recognize that the faster they do it, the more that becomes true. I mean, they just do an enormous, tremendous job of just locking you in. And, you know, it's just so easy. And I don't even use Alexa, and that would be just so even easier if I did. But, you know, it's interesting to me when I look at Amazon, the stock, and I think about the valuation there. And I don't know what AWS should be. It should be high, that valuation. And you look at Walmart, and that P.E. is much higher than Amazon, right?
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23:19And if that's just the retail part of the business, then, oh, my God, what are you getting the rest of Amazon for? And so, I mean, I think, I don't know, Amazon has a lot of upside from here from both sides of their business. Right. Years ago, a lot of analysts did these sum of the parts, right? And they were basically saying that you're getting the North American retail business for free. And so when you think about the adoption of Prime over the last, you know, 15 years or so, and you just gave the pricing for what this sort of delivery is going to be, you know, they've had tremendous operating margin improvement.
23:47I think that's had something to do with at least, you know, growing into that valuation ex-AWS. It was sub, I think, 1 % going back to 2022. Now it's close to 7%. So near term, I suspect this to be a headwind to margins as they get greater adoption. But ultimately, like Amazon does, it's going to be like a big leverage story from then on. Meanwhile, FedEx CEO Raj Subramanian telling Jim Cramer in a wide-ranging interview he's not impressed by Amazon's new service. Take a listen. The true network is something you can pick up in any one part of the world and get it to any other part of the world in a couple of days.
24:23And for that, you need a system like what we have here and the networks around the world. That's not what was announced at all. Catch a full interview on Mad Money at the top of the hour. Finally, you can, you know, the case we had made for years of valuation in FedEx, which didn't work, is actually now starting to work. I mean, FedEx has been doing extraordinarily well to stock over the last couple of months. And I still think it's cheap here at 17 times next year's numbers. And juxtapose what FedEx has done over the last year with what UPS has done. I mean, UPS is right around a multi-year low.
24:58So FedEx is trading at an all-time high and probably deservedly so. Yeah. Julie, do you like FedEx or UPS? Probably FedEx, I think, from an execution standpoint. I think they've been in a much better position. Obviously, the valuation reflects that, but I'd still rather go with the higher quality play. There's a lot more fast money to come. Here's what's coming up next. Turning down a bid. Why eBay is passing on GameStop's takeover proposal. and the choice words they had for the offer. Plus, a technical take on one gold miner that could be losing its luster. What the Chartmaster sees in store for one of Guy's old clam stocks.
25:38You're watching Fast Money, live from the NASDAQ market site in Times Square. We're back right after this.
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27:23welcome back to fast money today ebay rejecting game stop's 56 billion dollar takeover bid saying quote it is neither credible nor attractive cnbc had asked game stop ceo ryan cohen last week about how the company would fund the deal but he offered few details ebay shares ending the day of two percent while game stop dropped more than three percent excuse me i'm not sure if this is actually a surprise i mean ryan cohen last week i've just kept saying half cash half stock look at the website. But apparently eBay looked at the website and didn't like it still. What do you think, Dan? I think that if everything from the year 1999 is making new all-time highs, eBay should also be, which it is right now.
28:03But this is also a company. I remember a case that they were making about all the data that they have. This goes back five, maybe seven years or something like that. And the opportunity that that may be even longer to take that unstructured data, have it structured, get basically, you know, a more, I guess, a better retail experience, compete better with some of the existing states. This company, you know, has a good balance sheet. You know, it's got good growth still, believe it or not. There's a lot of things that AI could probably really help them do. And I would expect them, I didn't listen to the last call, but they're probably saying a lot about AI, and there's probably a future for them as you think about it.
28:37So to me, I think eBay is kind of interesting here. Well, so no surprise on the M &A front. It wasn't credible. or it wasn't attractive. Right. Neither of those two. They had to. The only thing that would have been shocking with this rejection is had they not rejected it and said, we'll engage. No way were they going to do that, nor did they need to. And I thought that performance, I don't know what to call it, interview, was absurd. Either he didn't understand, saying I don't understand the question. That's not really what he meant. He meant was you guys are idiots, I think was his Basically.
29:13Right. About the structure, which he never addressed, the collar, the fix, if it was fixed or a collar or anything like that. And there was a great article I read today pointing out they would have to issue more shares than the entire GameStop already. So really, in effect, you are issuing eBay shares to eBay. Right. And a little bit of GameStop business thrown in. Oh. So definitely not attractive. You can see why it was not attractive nor correct. Yeah. Well, when they say not attractive in terms of the valuation, that$56 or$57 billion, because that's... How do you even know that that's a valuation, right?
29:53Well, no. But of course they should say that. So I guess my point is, so for eBay to walk away from that side of it, understanding that GameStop wasn't probably viable. I mean, they're basically saying the company's too cheap here, which I'm sure every company feels that they are. The question is, will we come back a month from now and say, you know what? But eBay sort of tock-ticked themselves because it's had a tremendous run to the upside. It's not expensive, but it's going to be interesting to see where the stock is a month or so from now. A lot of analysts, you know, in response to the GameStop offer, issued notes saying, you know, eBay is very attractive here.
30:24It's in the middle of turnaround. That is really working. We're seeing the results here. Julie, I don't know. Do you like eBay here? I mean, yeah, I think it is doing the right things. And I think it makes sense to be recognizing the operational improvements. But, you know, this is a little bit like my wife and I, we love to go out to dinner. We sit at the bar. There's always some guy that hits on us. And it's neither attractive nor credible to us that they do that. Not for us, you know. And this feels like exactly the same energy. Okay, can I just point out one other thing about this? Besides, that's really funny.
30:59The GameStop thing, I mean, GameStop was several points higher before this started. So it added pressure. And now with the rejection and it seeming to be over for the moment, you would think that GameStop would would go back to where it was. But it's not. But it's not. So what is that? Yeah. Anyway. Yeah. Coming up, Trump's trip to the mainland, all the CEOs he's bringing with him to China and how the meeting could impact their companies. The details when Fast Money returns.
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31:44Welcome back to Fast Money Stocks Closing Mix, but finishing off their lows of the day as investors digested this morning's hotter-than-expected CPI data. The Dow with a small gain, up 56 points, and now on a three-day winning streak, the S &P down two-tenths of a percent, and the Nasdaq falling three-quarters of a percent, its worst day in two weeks. WTI crude jumping 4%, settling above$102 a barrel. Well, President Trump embarking on a major trip to China today, where he will meet with President Xi Jinping. CNBC's Megan Cassell has got the very latest. Megan. Hey, Melissa, that's right. President Trump is now officially on his way to Beijing.
32:19He's set to arrive on Wednesday morning, Washington time. So that's Wednesday evening local. And the real festivities kick off on Thursday. There's a bilateral meeting with President Xi in the morning, and that CEO-studded state banquet in the evening. Sixteen top executives are part of the U.S. delegation and expected to be there at that dinner, including Elon Musk, Tim Cook, David Solomon, among others. Now, the president spoke with reporters from the White House South Lawn on his way out of town today, and he spoke a bit about the trip. He was asked, for example, whether he'd be talking to President Xi for help, whether he'd be asking President Xi for help pressuring Iran to make a deal, and Trump said no because he said, quote, quote, I don't think we need any help with Iran.
32:59He also acknowledged that he has what he described as a lot of things to discuss with President Xi, but he said Iran wouldn't be one of them because, quote, we have Iran very much under control. Now, Trump says that the two leaders will be talking about trade more than anything else. Melissa, I'd say that's showing what he would like to focus on, but clearly Iran is going to be the dominant topic of this trip. Now, one last point, Trump was also asked what his red line would be to end the ceasefire, what would rise to a violation of the ceasefire for him, And he replied, we'll be thinking about that on the flight.
33:29So one thing to watch. Maybe we'll get more on that once he gets there. Melissa. All right, Megan, thank you. Megan Casella. Meanwhile, big tech pulling back from record highs. Today's biggest laggards include Qualcomm, tumbling more than 11 percent. Qualcomm is today's worst performer in the S &P 500. Intel, Micron, advanced micro devices also weaker today. For more on where the tech trade could go from here, let's bring in Dan Ives, Global Head of Technology Research at Wedbush. Dan, great to have you with us. Great to be here. You think the tech trade could go higher by about 10 percent? What fuels it?
34:01I think that could be conservative. I mean, to me, you know, everything we're seeing from the demand perspective, it's accelerating relative to use cases, relative to our Asia trip, demand and supply. Call it 12 to 1 for NVIDIA chips. And I view that just more as a catalyst. In my view, it's third inning, one out. And that's, you know, I think that's bullish relative to software semis and infrastructure. Hey, Dan, where will you go away from semis? I know you were just in Asia. You just kind of referred to that. You spent like a week and a half there. You're probably talking to a lot of hardware makers there.
34:37So that's where you're getting a sense of the demand. But outside of that, right? I mean, I know that you've been poking around some of these SaaS names. Is there unusual values there? Yeah. Look, Dan, I think that to me is going to be the key trade. I mean, like when I look at what's happened in Microsoft, I think ServiceNow way, way oversold. I look at Salesforce, and I look at cybersecurity, CrowdStrike, Palo Alto, among others. You know, and it speaks to my view. The derivatives, the second, third, fourth derivatives is where you have to see around the corner. And I think software continues to be the area in the winner circle in terms of the use cases playing out, Palantir, among others.
35:17Dan, is there any asymmetrical risk in this meeting tomorrow in China in terms of what what Taiwan is. Is it a pawn? Is it a bargaining chip? Does that come into consideration at all? Yeah, I think, I mean, that definitely is a play. I think the more sensitivity to the market is around NVIDIA chips and just the restrictions selling into China. I could tell you, you know, from being in the region, that is really the hot area that I think everyone's focused on. Because on the other side of the poker game, it's about raw materials. You talk about what could disrupt the trade. I don't think it does.
35:52but those are the keys chips raw materials so is it a bad signal that jensen huang is not on this trip yeah it's funny because i mean you reading into that i actually think there's some poker going on because you don't want the bigger poker chip and what's probably the biggest poker chip it's the godfather of ai jensen and i think him being there is strategic in terms of you know And if he was there, that would be face-to-face with the Chinese. And I think to some extent, that is, for the U.S., the biggest focus. Will they be able to sell chips into the U.S. from China? I think that continues to be the issue.
36:39So, Dan, it's Karen. Thanks for being on. So, what is your number one and two favorite ways to play the whole AI expansion? Look, I mean, we talk about chips, software, and we continue to be bullish on NVIDIA, AMD, and others. But I think it's playing the derivatives. It's on the hyperscale. So I think Google right now is the best position. They check every box in terms of Gemini to what we're seeing on cloud. Amazon, I know you talked about on the show before, an awakening in terms of some of the parts and the AWS piece. And then we talk about Oracle. I think that's sort of the awakening of the giant.
37:17That continues to be a way disconnected trade that we're seeing out in the market. Does the run in memory make sense to you? Does a run in Intel make sense to you, Dan? Till I was in Korea, I questioned it a bit. Leaving there, I don't, I mean, I think it just continues to be. It's a memory super cycle. SanDisk, micro, continue to go higher. Now, look, in terms of Intel, has that gotten maybe over its skis a bit? I think it could have. But I think investors, they're trying to stretch for what are the opportunities on the second, third derivatives. And obviously, Intel, they're in the right spot.
37:57I would still much rather own an NVIDIA or an AMD with Lisa Su than Intel relative to the run it's had. All right. Dan, great to speak with you. Thanks. Thank you. Dan Ives, Wedbush. What do you think, Dan? I think there's something really interesting happened today that we have mentioned. CME Group with a company called Data Intelligence. That's a it's a Silicon Data. Silicon Data. Silicon Data. Maybe. Did you guys talk about it at four o 'clock? We sure did. Oh, geez. I should have been watching. I was getting my makeup on. Look at this. You know, I got to take care of the moneymaker. No. So I think that's really interesting that they launched or they're going to be launching, you know, this this compute futures.
38:34Right. So, you know, you think about how, you know, farmers, you know, hedge with, you know, futures and the like. So if you are a buyer of compute and all the things that go into it, you can actually hedge. And I think that'll be really interesting to see if we start seeing some or less volatility as far as pricing, if you have the ability to kind of think about it from a commodity standpoint and how you might hedge it. Terry Duffy, once again, ahead of the curve. I mean, you know, we're friends, but I happen to think he's the greatest CEO out there. And he's watching. And he's watching right now.
39:02My friendship doesn't mean I'm biased, but it doesn't mean I'm wrong. But quickly, going back to Google, you know, Karen can speak to this. This is one of our, if not biggest, holdings. At 26 times next year's numbers, I still don't think it's expensive, despite the run that it's had. Agree. Yes. I don't even have a ton of time. No, there's so much to like about it. I mean, on every front, it's not a crazy amount of money. And, you know, there's so many parts that are working. We never even get to Waymo and YouTube and Search, which is doing really well. A year ago, things were very different.
39:32Coming up, we're going to check in on Guy's Clam. Or at least one of the socks in his acronym from last year. Why the chart master says the gold miner, this gold miner, is losing its luster and what the technicals are telling him. Fast Money is back in two.
39:52Welcome back to Fast Money, the VanEck gold miner's ETF on an incredible run, doubling in the last year. But since the start of the war with Iran, the miners have been struggling, down over 15 percent. Now, the chart master is saying it is time to put away your picks and shovels and sell one popular miner. It was the A in Guy's CLAM last year. Yes, it was two years ago. Agnico Eagle. What was the CLAM? Was it two years? Last year was two. Oh, last year was two. Two years ago. Time flies when we're talking about bad acronyms. Carter Braxtonworth, what do you see in the charts? Well, it certainly helped your acronym, but let's get right to it.
40:28Five, six charts, they're always identical. That's the plan, and then we put things on them. So the first chart, if you'll see here, is Agnico Eagle, a great winner. I mean, going from 45 to 255 in a beautiful ascent on exactly a two-year period. Now let's put some lines and arrows, the first iteration. You'll see some arrows here, and they look random, but they're not. Third chart, these arrows depict exactly the circumstance that the stock has ascended in this beautiful uptrend line. And now we have converging trend lines. This formation gets resolved one way or the other. Next chart, we have a down arrow.
41:04That's a judgment, of course. Others might say, these are beautiful charts, except you've got the arrow around Carter. It's a green arrow. It's going to be resolved up. But what we have here is the topping formation. Next iteration, you'll see it, is a minor head and shoulders top. And I think that is the issue. It's noteworthy before we get to the last chart that AEM is underperforming Newmont, underperforming Barrick. It's at one-year relative lows to those two other marquee names. Final chart, here is the channel. and often you get an equal and opposite move. Having blown out through the upper band of the channel, I think we're going to undercut the lower band.
41:40So we're sellers here of AEM. Just curious, Carter, what do you see more broadly for gold and for miners? Right, well, we have the blow-off peak, of course, of January and we've never recouped those dropping 20 % in two days. And so I think those highs are going to be good highs for a while And I'd be reducing exposure to theme and reducing exposure to miners in particular. All right. Carter, thanks. Carter Braxton Worth. How are you feeling about the clam now? I mean, the clam is in the past. It is in the past. Many things are. 49 minutes of the show is in the past. It was a great, listen, valuation is not a problem, although it's more expensive than a Newmont, for example.
42:23And that head and shoulders is scary. That uptrend line looks extraordinarily vulnerable. So I hear what he's saying. And if rates continue to go higher here, that's going to be a bit of a headwind for gold as well. So, unfortunately, I'm sort of with Carter on this one. Yeah. Julie, does gold have a place in your portfolio? No. I mean, we just, we're really not interested in things that don't cash flow. And that's always been a thing. That said, I love to wear it. So, you know, that's how it shows up. At the bar with her wife. Right. Where a bunch of dopes are, you know. Hidden on them. It's ridiculous.
42:56Good for you that you have had the gold call. for a long time. A low base, and now you look at your high-end space. Well, Louise Yamada. Yeah, the great Louise Yamada. Who's watching right now. Sure she is. Coming up, big opportunity in small caps. The name's Julie Beal is eyeing in the group as the Russell app performs a broader market this year. Those stops when Fast Money returns.
43:25Welcome back to Fast Money. the Russell 2000 nearly doubling the gains of the S &P 500 since the beginning of the year, up nearly 15 percent. But can the outperformance continue? For more on the state of small caps in a few names she's looking at, Julie Beal, what are you looking at? Yeah, it's been kind of an unusual rally that we've seen in small caps. It's really been driven by higher beta names and lower quality. So a lot of industrials and semiconductors, companies with very low return on equity, well outperforming those with higher OEs. It's an unusual dynamic that you see when you're coming out of a recession and you're like, what recession?
44:01Well, small cap was in its own little earnings recession, its own little like private earnings recession that it was enjoying. But going forward, if you look at earnings projections for the rest of the year, small cap still looks like it's going to trend ahead of large cap. So I think it's still a good place to be, but I would prefer to be focused on higher quality names that haven't run nearly as much. One that I like is Cardinal Infrastructure. This is a company that's in construction, but a lot of their contracts are not bid out. So they're negotiated and they have some exposure tangentially to data centers.
44:34It's not the primary part of their business, but you get some of that juice, which I think is nice. And Hinge Healthcare, this is a virtual PT company. I think that AI is a huge benefit to them in terms of being able to automate and make their operations so much more efficient. And it enables them to pass on those cost benefits to the companies that they service. So I think these are two higher quality small cap names. Valuation looks pretty reasonable, believe it or not. And I think gives you the exposure to the asset class with less risk than just owning it passively and having 40 percent non-earning companies.
45:08No, thank you. Cardinal's chart looks like a data center related kind of chart. Julie, what is the primary part of their business? Most of what they're doing is they're building out in the Southeast. And so they have a lot of relationships with home builders to build out a lot of the infrastructure. And they're very vertically integrated. So you don't have any subcontractors that you have to work with. And that's why these larger customers really like working with them. They're able to deliver and deliver really effectively. Some of the business is connected to data centers. And so they're getting some of that juice.
45:39But most of the business is really kind of the core infrastructure that I think has more earning stability to it. Guy, what do you think? Well, it's a sell the news event because they reported this morning. The backlog, I think, was up something like some ridiculous number, 60 percent from the prior year. So good for them. But I think she's on to something here. Valuation is obviously stretched, but the growth is there. All right. Up next, final trades.
46:10Time for the final trade. Julie Beal. Bentley is a software name I think can survive the AI deluge. Karen. Yes, we talked about it a bunch on the show. Google, this is not a name no one's ever heard of before, for sure. But I always come back to this decision. If I own none, would I buy it right here? And the answer is yes, I would. Dan, Nathan. Yes, CME, the aforementioned CME Group. The stock acts contrary to what the stock market does. The stock market's rallied 10 % over the last month or so. I think CME Group has come back 10 % or so. I like seeing you. Okay. It's a fun show tonight. We learned about Julie Beal.
46:45Lots about Julie Beal. She went to the wrong bars, clearly. Gold. All sorts of things. In's Med. Too cheap here. All right. Thanks for watching Fast Money. See you back here tomorrow at 5. Mad Money with Jim Carrey. We're starting right now.
47:00All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet, or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such.
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Yields rising, with stocks pulling back from records, as investors digest this morning’s hotter-than-expected inflation data. How the Iran War and surging energy prices are impacting the U.S. economy, and how the Fast Money traders are navigating the equity volatility. Plus your next lightning fast prime package, Ebay rebuffs Gamestop’s takeover bid, and where the Chartmaster sees one gold miner heading after a big run over the past few years.
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