Semis Slide, Oil Climbs, Nike Results on Deck… And The Latest Use Case For GLP-1’s 3/30/26

21:36Karen Finerman:Yeah, Alcoa, remember my girl? Sure. My girl from days gone by. has doubled over the last few months. And I think at this point, this is a case of a shock that I'm not sure is sustainable. I'd rather own the inputs into it like a Rio Tinto or a BHP. Before, I know we've got to get to break. I apologize. Oh, we do.

21:54Dan Nathan:The Clash, the only band that matters, self-proclaimed. I went to see The Who in 1982 at Shea Stadium. The Clash was like a warm-up band. They got booed off the stage at Shea Stadium. No, they didn't get booed off the stage.

22:07Karen Finerman:David Johansson did. And The Clash did. I was there, Tim. You know what? I think, again, you're transferring. Look, I love the who, but you have to love the cash. No, you don't. You were saying this backstage. Continue this. We will. Yeah, in the break, I'm sure. Coming up, banks catching a bounce, but still deep in the red for the year. The next move in money centers and why Wall Street is getting bullish on one beaten down credit card stock. Plus, Nike running downhill. How our traders are handling the tripped-up athletic wearmaker ahead of earnings tomorrow. Could we see a swoosh after the report?

22:37Which direction? Don't go anywhere fast when he's back in two.

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24:07Don't just clean, Lysol clean. Welcome back to Fast Money Financials, trying to bounce back after last week's losses. But the XLF is still well below its 200-day moving average. The ETF now down nearly 12 percent this year. But Wells Fargo is seeing some upside for at least one name in the space, reiterating its buy rating on American Express with a$425 price target, saying that AXP's more affluent customer base should be in good shape and that fear of AI job replacement of the white-collar workers is overdone. What do you think of that call?

24:39Dan Nathan:I understand. They're playing a little stock market here. I admire the call because the stock has gotten basically beat up with some of the other members of the space. I don't necessarily believe it. I get the affluent customer. I get they should be sort of protected from or insulated from what's going on. I'm not sure, though, that's the case. And if credit defaults start to pick up, at some point it's going to make its way into the higher end. And I think American Express has been sniffing that out for a while. How do the charts look? You know, we're getting close, I think. It's oversold and it's into support from that cloud model that I use, but no shift yet, no momentum discovery.

25:13So to me, it's early.

25:15Karen Finerman:I think you're trying to buy selective weakness in banks, assuming we're not going into this epic growth scare. I mean, I think there's been a lot of concern on the credit. Citibank's another example. We were talking about this, you know, maybe this regional bank there thinking about picking up on Friday. I just think people are looking for reasons to sell. By the way, I referenced this period of what Meta had done over the last four and a half years. on an annualized basis, Citibank's outperformed meta over the last four and a half years. And it tells you where I also just think, you know, financials as a sector were so underweight for years after the financial crisis, I think they've gotten back to a market weighting.

25:49Karen Finerman:And in fact, I think they were overweight. I think there's a lot of people feeling some pain on some banks right here. I think you need to hang in there. But in terms of a call like an American Express versus a call like Citi, Citi obviously benefits from a lot of the volatility as well. They will benefit from a lot of the big IPOs coming out this year. They'll benefit from any M &A that's going on to offset maybe some credit weakness they may have in their portfolios. I think I think American Express, even before this war, was under a lot of was under pressure that Katie references. And I believe this is part of the cycle of their business and the greater concerns around private credit, which equals job loss.

26:23Karen Finerman:I don't think we know. And I think it's a company that long term has found. Remember when we said like cashless payments were going to basically be the end or after COVID? People are so worried about taking out a card. MasterCard, Amex, and AXP have continued to reinvent themselves, and I think they continue to.

26:43Dan Nathan:Citi is a relative value game, I think. Valuation, it's still a lot cheaper than its peers. They report, I think, on April 14th. So that's coming to a theater near you. Jane Frazier's done a great job. The turnaround story is intact. To me, if you want to be along a bank, you're along Citi. There's a lot more Fast Money to come. Here's what's coming up next. running on empty nike stocks sliding more than 30 percent since august as the retailer laces up and looks for a rebound what to expect out of those numbers next plus ai and the future of pharma how eli lily's latest deal could bring ai developed drugs to market and whether there's more mna action in store for the space you're watching fast money live from the nasdaq market site in times square We're back right after this.

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28:37My mom inspired me to dream big and work hard. Siner Adams! What would you like the power to do? Bank of America, proud to be the official bank of U.S. soccer and FIFA World Cup 2026. Bank of America NA, member FDSP. Welcome back to Fast Money Nike. He set to report earnings tomorrow after the bell. The stock lower again today, trading at more than eight-year lows. It is down 22 percent just since his last earnings report. Is there anything the company can say tomorrow to turn things around? Can a kitchen sink even help, you think, Tim? No, I don't think we want a kitchen sink anymore.

29:13Karen Finerman:I think they need to point out the turnaround that's already happened. I'm going to quietly say I think this is interesting. I think Elliott Hill has overcome North America. There is innovation. They're pushing the whole running shoes. Guys out there every day in those things running. He's like Forrest Gump. And I do think you've got a dynamic here where there's there's so much negativity around. The inventories are clean. I think you look at it's one point six, one point seven times price to sales. This is the kind of a company that I think you buy it. And I think as BK once said, you put this one in the top drawer.

29:49Karen Finerman:I think this is one that you actually, you know, I'm not telling you can't go lower. I think the macro could get worse. But the big issues that they have to still solve are China and digital. And I'm not sure there's a medium to answer. But North America was up 9 percent last quarter. China is 15 percent of revenues and was down 16 percent last quarter. And what's happening in China in terms of oil prices? Terrible. High.

30:11Dan Nathan:We know a lot about what the street's expecting. I mean, gross margin is supposed to be about 40 percent, which would be about 180 basis point decline year over year. So that's factored in. I mean, there's a lot of bad news in the stock. I think the last couple of quarters, we've had analysts come out and say that's the worst is over and the stock is ready to inflect. And for a week or so, that appears to be the case. Until again, it's not. Competition is fierce. Valuation is OK. I don't know if they're going to kitchen sink it, but I think there's further decline here in Nike. What do the charts say?

30:41It's really interesting. So we've seen a downtrend in Nike for several years now. And the last downdraft was really strong, more than 25 percent since the February high. So when you come into an earnings report, this oversold, you know, it's more likely that you will see a positive reaction. Nike does have support around 50. That goes all the way back to 2014. And it does have the tendency to gap up or down around earnings. Coming up, another potential use case for GLP-1s. The additional opportunity Eli Lilly is investigating for its weight loss drugs and how it could impact the pharma space. The new host, Jared Holes, will join us next and dig into it all back in two.

31:26Missed a moment of fast? Catch us anytime on the go. Follow the Fast Money podcast. We're back right after this.

31:40Welcome back to Fast Money. Stocks starting the week off with an intraday reversal finishing well off their highs as oil ticked higher. The Dow managing to end with a small gain. The S &P on a three-day losing streak, now less than 1 % away from correction territory, and the Nasdaq dropping nearly three-quarters of a percent today, now down more than 13 % from highs, all three tracking for their worst quarter since 2022. WTI crude, meantime, rising more than 3%, settling above$100 a barrel for the first time since July of 2022. Well, Eli Lilly rising a percent today, the Zetbound maker announcing over the weekend a$2.75 billion AI drug development deal with Hong Hong Kong-based in silico medicine, aiming to accelerate Lilly's R &D efforts across multiple therapeutic areas.

32:23And more signs of the growing use cases for weight loss drugs, biotech startup Baseline Therapeutics, the latest company testing its GLP-1 for substance abuse disorders. It follows a similar move by Lilly in studying obesity drugs to treat addictions. For more on all this, Mizuho Healthcare Specialist Jared Holes joins us here on set. Jared, great to have you with us. Thanks a lot. How will this change the InSilico deal? How will that change the costs for Lilly? Don't exactly know. I think what it's going to do is it broadens the pipeline for sure. You know, InSilico is working on a bunch of assets over in Hong Kong and probably globally as time goes on.

33:03I think it gives Eli Lilly more shots on goal and further drug development that's going to help them five, ten years down the road. They don't need anything today, obviously. So I think this is a longer-term strategy to diversify and using their assets to get there. Meantime, in terms of testing, baselines testing the GLP-1 for substance abuse, I mean, we'd known this was a potential use case. Does this change? Does it move the needle at all when it comes to your perception of what the TAM could be? I don't think so. I mean, if anything, there's upside. We've really only spoken about it as far as weight loss is concerned in terms of the numbers that have been built out.

33:40There's been a lot of talk lately about the duration of therapy, patients going off, then back on. I think that's, you know, something that I've been doing more work around trying to figure out from a modeling standpoint how that's going to look like. This is all additive, I think. There's no question that the drugs are going to work to some degree. It's just going to be how much or how beneficial they are. We know it works for food. I think it works for anything. Alcohol, smoking, anything where there's intake. I think there's definitely going to be an effect. It's just going to be how significant.

34:12Dan Nathan:What kind of valuation cushion, if any, does Lilly have if competition would meaningfully come in and if pricing starts to sort of fall away? I mean, it trades at three turns their competitors. Yeah, I don't think much. It just I think the valuation cushion is sort of, you know, they need to continue to kick out new drugs and get the street more excited than they already are. But we've seen multiples go super high. We've seen them go to levels that we never thought possible on the downside, Novo Nordisk and a bunch of others, Pfizer at times, Bristol at times. That's, I think, what they're most susceptible to, is that the street walks away from obesity as this major catalyst.

34:53At least for some period of time, they can always come back. But I don't really think they have that much cushion at all. Or for you're expecting to be FDA approved in April, April 10th, I think you said? I think so, yeah. Is that going to be a catalyst or is it going to be like Novo Nordis launch of its weight loss pill? Well, basically no effect to down. Right. I mean, it's it's mind blowing. This is probably the most under heralded, amazing drug launch that we've ever seen. I mean, close to half a million patients on the drug in three months. Yet there's all this fanfare around Orpho. I'm not saying that Orpho is not a good drug.

35:29I think we all agree that Wegovi and Orpho are both very solid. But for Novo to get no credit and then thinking that Lilly is going to get a ton of credit, I just think is a little bit contradictory. Obviously, the halo effect around Lilly has been going on for quite some time and the opposite for Novo. But it doesn't really make sense to me that you're giving one company zero credit and their launch has been excellent. Yet we're all, you know, very hot and bothered over this Lilly launch.

35:57Karen Finerman:I like where you're going on that pair of trade. I'm with you. Let's talk, though, about, again, Oral Wagobi and the broadening just of the category. In other words, that really forget everything else. I mean, that and we're still in the early rounds here. Yeah. Are you impressed? Are you less impressed? Did we price this in already? Again, the stocks run into it has been a very difficult run for the stock after being a hero really until two months ago. Yeah. I mean, the issue is their their guidance assumes that the drug does pretty well. And still, they're not going to grow the top line this year, which is pretty incredible to think about when Lilly is growing north of 20 percent, most likely, or 15 to 20 percent.

36:39I think the launch has been great. The stock has gotten no credit. I think they have to, again, prove themselves as time goes on that they have a stronger pipeline, that the pricing dynamic doesn't get worse. That's been, I think, the biggest issue here is that you went from$1 ,200 per month to$149 for the oral. But as time goes on as well, as patients start to take higher doses of oral Egovi, the pricing is going to actually go up. So hopefully that helps them in time. I want to ask you about Merck because you had an interesting thought. I mean, Merck has done a series of acquisitions. Why spend on R &D?

37:14And you point out that Keytruda, of course, its main drug, wasn't developed in-house either. So what's the point of you even trying at this point? Just use the dollars for something else, like continuing to buy things. Yeah, I mean, it was a little bit of a hyperbolic comment. But I think that the basis is if you're going to spend$15 billion a year on R &D, at some point, I think you have to show something that you've been able to take that R &D spend and generated assets that are commercialized. I can't really remember the last time Merck internally developed a blockbuster. I mean, there is one.

37:49I just can't think of it this very second. And then now they're spending, I think they've done five or six deals since 2022. that will definitely ease the burden of Keytruda. But you have to start to question the R &D spend if you're also going to go out and spend$25,$30 billion on acquisitions, which is what they've done. Jared, thank you for coming by. Thank you. Always good to see you. You too. Jared Hulse of Mizuno.

38:13Dan Nathan:Look at you. Keytruda was a drug created by Organon. Organon was bought by Shearing Plow, which was bought by Merck. This drug was on the shelf. A scientist saw it and said we should take a look at it. Isn't that amazing? That is an amazing story, and you knew that. No, I didn't. I mean, I knew that in the back of my head, but Jared wrote that in his note. Oh, good note by you, Jared. Well done. I wish I read your note. How did the charts look for any of these? Well, I mean, naturally, as a technician, I go for the uptrending stocks, and that is Lilly. That is Merck. The momentum's still there longer term.

38:48And Lilly had the breakout in November, and the breakout was made decisive. So it puts you in the mode of buying into weakness, even though I don't have any short-term countertrend signals yet. Coming up, charting metas sell off. Even with today's pop, shares are down more than 25 percent over the last two months. Can the social giant recover? We are going into the charts to find out when Fast Money returns.

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40:53Welcome back to Fast Money. Meta breaking a five-day losing streak, popping 2 % after Morgan Stanley reiterated its overweight call in the stock. But shares are still down almost 19 % since the start of the year. And Katie, you don't see any reason to find any hope in you? No. Again, my theme today is we're not there yet. So I think Meta, you know, it's a long-term topping formation, unfortunately. The head and shoulders top, we all know it. It's a lower high effectively and then a breakdown below a neckline or a support level. And that breakdown occurred a few weeks ago and we've seen very significant downside follow through.

41:29When you do see that immediate follow through, that tends to be also bearish and most recently broke some support at the November low. So as you continue to see these support levels taken out, that's a message from the market. There is an additional support level around 500, so we can watch to see if it holds there. But until we see that momentum improve, these are topping formations that can have implications, unfortunately, for six, nine, even 12 months. Morgan Stanley, sorry. No, go ahead. 775.

41:58Dan Nathan:They lowered their price target. So Carter Braxton, worth the aforementioned from over the show, he had a note out a couple weeks ago, and he talked about a breakdown in the stock. The level that Katie just talked about is the April low from last year, which I think it closed around$500. They don't report until the end of April. I think, you know, on a benign to negative tape, it trades down to that$500 level.

42:20Karen Finerman:On a trailing basis, this company is trading around 16 times. I mean, it's very cheap. As it relates to both the litigation and the overhang and the monetization of the age group that was in question in the lawsuit, not a big deal. If you get to a place where there have to be product enhancements, for all we know, this could be something that's ultimately they turn a negative into a positive. Right now, I think that headline is overdone. It happened on a day when the markets were under a lot of different pressure. The chart may not be good, but I think if we're talking about the tobacco moment for Google and Meta, I don't think so.

42:58Karen Finerman:And I think, as we talked about earlier also, I mean, the CapEx dynamic is fluid. They don't have to chase anything. That's right. They can dial it back any time. And that would be perceived positively. Very, very. Yeah. You think so?

43:09Dan Nathan:Perceived positively for the names. But what does that mean for the broader market? If names like Facebook and the other names that have been spending hand over fist all of a sudden decide, you know, we're going to ratchet back CapEx. A lot of the broader market has been built on the thought that there's CapEx is somehow etched in stone. There's a sanctity to CapEx. Well, I mean, I believe that. But Nvidia doesn't show the sanctity.

43:30Karen Finerman:I mean, Nvidia shows that they're peeling it back. And I think all the news flow that we've had, and whether it's AMD, I mean, the in-house CPUs, the white-label CPUs, anyway, I feel as if the market has gotten some sense that some of this growth should be tempered. And I think Medi can reel it in. Coming up, a K-pop collaboration, how McDonald's could capitalize on the popularity of K-pop demon hunters. And why analysts say it could be a golden opportunity. More Fast 20 in 2. K-pop.

44:08Welcome back to Fast Money. McDonald's is betting on the success of Netflix's K-pop Demon Hunters with new themed meals hitting restaurants tomorrow. The menu includes Korean-inspired breakfast, lunch and dinner combos based on characters from the animated film, plus an a la carte derpy McFlurry featuring berry-popping pearls. McDonald's shares basically flat this year. They're trading almost 10 percent below the 52-week high hit in February, arguably with rising gas prices. This will hit the demographic that McDonald's relies on the most.

44:43Karen Finerman:You should be calling on Guy because he's a huge K-pop fan. Oh, I know. And he has that McFlurry every turn. No one markets better than McDonald's. No one puts a meal together than McDonald's. No one gets through difficult times. And actually, the headwinds around their core consumer, I do think this is overdone. I think this is a company that you should feel good about owning in a difficult environment.

45:01Dan Nathan:Go back eight years of this uptrend, and we have seen moves of this magnitude of the downside at least 10 different times over those eight years. They report in April. Valuation is always a little stretch, but I don't think it's ridiculous. I don't know what Tim is talking about. What did you say about my K-pop infatuation? Yeah, you, come on. I would admit it if I knew what it was, but I don't know. You were cutting your hair like that guy. Which guy?

45:25Karen Finerman:The guy that was on the side of the Happy Meal. That guy. The guy on the left. I was a short, Katie. You know, long-term steady uptrend, just like Guy says, it's a secular uptrend. So maybe not the best entry, but to me it's a good long-term hold. We haven't had a taste test in a very long time. No, we've got to do that. We used to do that in the past 20 days of yore. I killed that. And this could, I feel like it's a candidate. Let's do it. Let's do it. What's the purple sauce? A purple dipping sauce. What is a purple dipping sauce? We're going to find out. A purple dipping sauce that is purple, Tim.

45:55Karen Finerman:But what flavor could it possibly be that would be at all appetizing? That would be a lavender base to find out, wouldn't it? Let's up next to be continued. The final trade.

46:14Final trade time, Tim.

46:16Karen Finerman:This went pharma stocks breaking out after a couple of years. It's Tim's pharma PFE. Stay there. Katie Stockton. I'm going to go with the moon ETF. So M.O.O. It's agribusiness, and it looks very different from the S &P. Thanks for being here, Katie.

46:31Dan Nathan:Big Fast Money fans, the DeFray family is here in studio. Yeah. The A and my clam. That's like Nico Eagle Minds. Thanks for watching Fast. Mad Money starts right now. All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet, or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion.

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