In short
Episode topic: Fast Money market wrap focused on a semiconductor pullback ahead of Nvidia earnings, plus macro/rates and geopolitics (Iran sanctions, Treasury bond buyback funding), crypto rebound levels, media M&A (Paramount/Warner), restaurant stock calls, and an NFL investing playbook.
Guests
Tim Seymour, Steve Grasso, Dan Nathan, Guy Adami (Fast Money desk). Julian Emanuel (Evercore ISI). Logan Ryan (two-time Super Bowl champion; CBS Sports NFL analyst).
Key claims
Semis may be setting up for a Nvidia-driven inflection, but investors are worried about debt/CapEx financing, margin pressure, and China risk. Nvidia’s price action is “cheap for a reason,” and the sector may not get rewarded broadly. Treasury/secondary sanctions and bond-market “massaging” are bond-bearish. Bitcoin’s rally has catalysts but may see profit-taking near $80k.
Notable examples
SMH ETF down 2%+; Micron -6%; Nvidia seven straight down days. Nvidia price increases (17%) and customer-chip backstopping (25%). Iran sanctions with a “cure period.” Paramount/Warner merger litigation fee ticking $7M/day. Baird restaurant picks: Cava/Brinker/Starbucks/Dutch Bros; upgrade Darden; neutral Chipotle/Domino’s. Logan Ryan: never spent NFL salary; diversified across stocks/bonds/real estate; retired at 33.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Chapters
Tap a time to open that second in VOAnalyzing the Semiconductor Slump
0:33 to 0:53
Discussion on the recent performance of semiconductor stocks and NVIDIA's challenges.
“Every Mazda comes standard with proactive safety features.”
Analyzing the Semiconductor Slump
1:45 to 2:52
Discussion on the recent performance of semiconductor stocks and NVIDIA's challenges.
“On the desk tonight, we have Tim Seymour, Steve Grasso, Dan Nathan, and Guy Adami.”
Potential Inflection Points in Earnings
2:53 to 3:18
Exploring whether upcoming earnings reports could signal a market turnaround.
“I push back and say it's cheap for a reason.”
The Competitive Landscape for NVIDIA
3:19 to 5:50
Insights into NVIDIA's competitive situation and market predictions.
“I don't want to steal all of his thunder, but he believes that these earnings are an inflection point for the market.”
China's Impact on the Semiconductor Market
5:51 to 8:11
Discussion on how China's advancements in tech affect U.S. semiconductor companies.
“And so the question was, could Nvidia turn around the market?”
NVIDIA's Strategy and Market Position
8:12 to 9:42
Examining NVIDIA's business strategies and potential challenges ahead.
“What you're calling circular financing, and a lot of people are in all fairness, is this potentially, could it be actually the moat that NVIDIA is trying to build?”
U.S. Sanctions and Economic Impact
9:43 to 12:10
Analysis of new U.S. sanctions and their implications for the market.
“So they want to continue to have these companies that are building agents to continue to consume a lot of tokens so they can sell them the next generation chip, whether it's Blackwell or Rubin, that sort of thing.”
Market Risks and Future Outlook
12:11 to 14:03
Evaluating risks in the market and discussing future trends.
“Guy, I want to come over to you on these new potential economic actions and then possible impact on the broader market.”
Market Insights with Julian Emanuel
14:03 to 18:22
Julian Emanuel discusses market conditions and the impact of NVIDIA earnings.
“let's bring in our Julian Emanuel, Senior Managing Director at Evercore ISI.”
Diverse Investment Strategies
18:22 to 19:54
Discussion on negative beta stocks and their role in current market dynamics.
“You're also calling for IMW November put and SPY October put.”
Show all 24 chapters
Bitcoin and Market Reactions
21:20 to 25:02
Analysis of Bitcoin's recent surge and the factors influencing the market.
“Discounts not available in all states or situations.”
Financial Wisdom from Logan Ryan
25:02 to 28:00
Logan Ryan shares his journey to financial freedom after his NFL career.
“inside his portfolio and the money lessons he's learned on and off the field.”
Personal Financial Journey
28:00 to 29:00
Explore the personal financial lessons shared by an NFL player about managing wealth.
“My mother worked in, you know, selling insurance or handling insurance claims.”
Investment Strategies in Sports
29:00 to 30:14
Discussing diversified investment strategies and risk management in sports.
“I do want to talk about where you're putting your money.”
Challenges of Financial Literacy
30:14 to 31:29
Addressing the lack of financial education for athletes and the impact on their careers.
“Logan, Rutgers has become defensive back you, thanks to you and a couple other guys.”
The Importance of Saving
31:29 to 32:53
Highlighting the significance of saving over spending for financial security.
“Hey, Logan, Tim, the most impressive thing I've heard about you today and is really how you were raised and that work ethic.”
Professional Experiences in the NFL
32:53 to 33:41
Reflecting on the guest's NFL career and its financial implications.
“So do I know more than him about finances?”
Market Overview: Stocks and Trends
33:41 to 33:58
Discussing current stock market trends and performance.
“All right, coming up, M &A Mayhem, the latest wrinkle in Paramount's planned merger with Warner Brothers and the outlook for media stocks right now when Fast Money returns.”
M&A Landscape in Media
33:58 to 36:50
Examining the merger between Paramount and Warner Brothers and its implications.
“Stocks mostly lower to kick off the week.”
Analysis of Restaurant Stocks
36:50 to 38:16
Analyzing the latest trends in restaurant stocks and market predictions.
“Now, M &A lawyers tell me that this battle could have a chilling effect on media M &A, But sources tell me to expect more partnerships in the absence of big deals in the near term.”
Josh Harris on NBA and Lakers
38:16 to 41:00
Billionaire Josh Harris discusses the valuation of the Lakers and sports investments.
“Baird naming Cava, Chili's owner Brinker, Starbucks, and Dutch Brothers as his top picks in the space, upgrading Darden to outperform.”
Valuation of Sports Franchises
42:01 to 43:58
A discussion on the rising valuations of sports teams and the factors influencing them.
“You know, the interesting thing is, why would you not think 20 times revenue, which is what the Lakers are going to sell for if the deal goes through, is high?”
NBA Team Dynamics and Predictions
43:59 to 45:41
Analyzing the dynamics of NBA teams and making predictions for the upcoming season.
“Did the situation with the Dodgers come up in your conversation?”
Final Trades Discussion
45:42 to 46:31
Hosts share their final trade recommendations and opinions on various stocks.
“Coming up next, we've got your final trades.”
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:00Say you always wanted to have a backyard oasis. Here's the thing. If you get smart with your money, you can do things like that. With Empower, you can start making the most out of your money so you can go out and live a little. Isn't that why we work so hard? To have some fun with our money? Like treating yourself to something special or spontaneously doing something extra for a loved one. So use Empower and get good at money so you can be a little bad. Join their 20 million customers today at Empower.com. Not an Empower client paid or sponsored. Mazda has been named Consumer Reports' safest new car brand.
0:36It starts with our approach. Every Mazda comes standard with proactive safety features. So you're more aware of what's around you, more focused on the road ahead, and ready before problems ever start. Mazda. More of what matters most to you. Go to mazdausa.com to learn more. Consumer Reports does not endorse or promote any product. Live from the Nasdaq market site in the heart of Times Square in New York City, this is Fast Money, and here is what's on tap tonight. A semi-slump ahead of key earnings this week with the recent chip action is telling us about the AI trade. And can NVIDIA turn things around after a nearly two-week-long rough patch?
1:18We're going to debate that and more. Plus, how the Treasury plans to fund its bond buyback plans. Bitcoin closes back in on a major support level, and Disney very quietly, quietly climbs to seven-month highs. And two-time Super Bowl champion Logan Ryan shares his investment philosophy, why he never, never spent a dime from his NFL paychecks, and how he is viewing the market right now. I am Frank Hollinen for Melissa Lee, coming to you live from Studio B at the NASDAQ. On the desk tonight, we have Tim Seymour, Steve Grasso, Dan Nathan, and Guy Adami. And we got to start with chips. Just getting kind of checked on Wall Street.
1:53The SMH Semiconductor ETF dropping over 2%, posting its lowest close since the start of this month. Among the laggers today, memory makers like Micron shedding nearly 6%. We also got AMD, Marvell, and Intel also seeing some very substantial losses. A lot of red there on the screen. And take a look at NVIDIA, now riding a seven-day losing streak, tying its longest downdraft since September of 2022. The world's biggest company reports its earnings on Wednesday. We're going to talk a lot about that coming up later in the show. And while it's still outperforming the MAG-7 so far this year, it's down nearly 12 percent from its May record and has shed more than$600 billion in market cap since.
2:32So will Wednesday's report, will it turn things around for the semi-trade? Guy, I'm going to start with you. Well, welcome, Frank. Obviously, it's always great to have you. And the short answer is, I think, yes. I mean, just given the size of the company, it can absolutely turn around. The SMH is probably down, I think, 18 percent from its all-time high that we made back in June. So the setup is probably as good as it's been. The problem, of course, is why has it been going down and why does it trade at a trough valuation that it does? I mean, that is a concern. Now, some people say it's cheap.
3:00You got to buy it. I push back and say it's cheap for a reason. Maybe the market is sniffing something out. And you mentioned the memory names. Listen, we see 8 to 10 percent moves now two or three times a week, both up and down Micron, Sandisk, Western Dig. I think that's a precursor to a bigger move in the semi. So we'll see how it plays out. Dan, is this an inflection point? Julian Mayo is going to come up later. I don't want to steal all of his thunder, but he believes that these earnings are an inflection point for the market. Do you see it the same way? Well, we've said that now, what, for three and a half years every quarter.
3:28And, you know, what's interesting about NVIDIA is that all of their customers, competitors have already released their earnings, you know, like a month or so before because it's late in the cycle. I can't remember. This is what I think is different this time. I can't remember so many announcements coming out of the company that might affect future earnings. Not right now. You know, the one yesterday or over the weekend was that they're going to raise prices on some of their latest chips by 17 percent. Now, the problem with that is if you're their customers and they're very concentrated, but there's also a lot of competition coming in right now.
3:58I mean, that really hurts. Right. That really hurts margins right there. But it's also this company, they did this facility with all the major private credit, private equity guys a few weeks ago where they're backstopping 25 percent of the chips that their customers are going to buy. They're investing in power generation. They're investing in land. They're investing in perplexity, which is an agent provider, and poolside. All of this stuff's going on. You can draw a line back to the fact is that they're creating demand through the investments that they're making. So into the earnings, you can say to yourself, well, that's going to be great because they're going to give you a big tailwind and they're going to have a bigger backlog, that sort of thing.
4:33Or is it making up for something in the near term? And we're just not going to know, I think, until Wednesday night. All right. So a lot of people like you seem to be trying to sniff out things, a lot of whisper numbers out there. One stat that's not a whisper number, it's not speculation, negative earnings response in six out of the last eight quarters, Tim. Well, first of all, let me echo. Great to have you. And I like the setup that is seven straight down days, I mean, worse since 2022. and at this multiple because we've priced in all of this. We've priced in a lot of dynamics around where there's not only circular demand, but I think we've started to also in the last few weeks try to figure out where there's really credit exposure for NVIDIA across a lot of these deals.
5:09I mean, last week it was Broadcom really actually having, being on the hook, and tying in with a couple of the big lenders that we've talked about, whether it's the Apollos or the KKRs, but, I mean, truly where there is balance sheet dynamics. We've seen what's going on with the CDS. we've seen what's going on with 220 billion of issuance of high grade that's having an effect on this entire treasury markets. All we do talk about it, but it's also bring it back to that market. And I think you've priced in a lot of bad news. For Nvidia, to me, I feel like I'm buying a holding company at this point.
5:42I feel like I'm buying something that's trading at a discount to the market. I feel like something where the pessimism is so extreme. I think if there's one place you want to play, it's here. It's not in the memory names. And so the question was, could Nvidia turn around the market? Well, the question is, will it? And I'm not sure it has to. And it's also clear. Semis failed off of that great rally at the 50 very clearly, as did Korea and the Cosby, as did a couple other big names. So I'm not sure the market's ready to reward the entire sector. Grasso, I think you hit on it where six out of the last eight quarters, there was no real price follow through, even though they beat on earnings.
6:18It wasn't it wasn't enough. I think the debt financing of the AI spend has really gotten into the heads of investors for NVIDIA. CapEx has always been leading. CapEx leading way ahead of revenues. So that was the number one thing. Database push back 38 now, 50 states. That is a huge thing. If this is so intensive and you need those databases and you can't get them, you're out of luck. The last thing was Tim mentioned the memory chips. If you're going to have Apple access Chinese memory companies, that's going to hit Micron. That's going to hit SK Hynix. That's going to hit Samsung. So there's a lot of things brewing here.
6:58I don't know if NVIDIA can save the day when we haven't seen the follow through. But I will tell you down 10 % into the print is probably the best case scenario for them. You know, you've got to hit on something I was thinking about. And anybody can jump in here. The China factor here. The idea that China can produce not only memory chips. And I don't know if you guys saw this over the weekend. They did kind of like a robot Olympics. And it seemed to just kind of be a show and tell. Like, listen, we have the chips. We have the artificial intelligence. We have the technology to compete with you.
7:22And, Tim, you're nodding right now. Did you see it that way, too? Because it wasn't about track and field with robots. It's funny because a guy called me up over the weekend and said, are you checking out this robot Olympics going on? And, you know, so we tuned in. And, no, but I was actually writing down China as you just brought this up. That's the part of this trade that we know it's toe to toe. We know China is open source. China last week said they were actually loosening restrictions on H200 chips because, in fact, I think they want a quid pro quo. They want a little bit more like they're giving some ground inside of China for the U.S.
7:51while they flood the rest of the world. So, you know, we may be very much the leader of our market in terms of chips and semis and build at home, et cetera. China's trying to get the rest of the world. And right now, that's the biggest issue to me almost on NVIDIA. It's not a question about their leadership. It's not a question about their balance sheet, really. It's a question about what's going on with China. Dan, I want to go back to you. What you're calling circular financing, and a lot of people are in all fairness, is this potentially, could it be actually the moat that NVIDIA is trying to build?
8:18They're funding companies saying, use our chips, and as a way to kind of protect themselves from encroachment from China or anywhere else. Yeah, I guess the point is, is that they had this tremendous customer concentration. You know, a lot of folks have been talking about the competition that was going to be coming, whether it was, you know, Amazon's Terranium and TPUs from Google or Radeon from AMD or clusters from Intel of CPUs. You know, and it's an interesting time right now for all of that because, you know, I read something earlier today. 70 % of Microsoft Azure's revenue is coming from OpenAI.
8:50So it's not too different than what's going on with OpenAI. And here was a company, Microsoft, that had this, you know, growing cloud business. It was meant to, you know, be in the catbird seat, and it was with OpenAI. But their inability to diversify away from that, to me, is very interesting. So you have this single point of failure as it relates to the model makers. And then you also have that with the chips, right? So we call that a dual point of failure. But they're kind of different verticals for all intents and purposes. And one that starts to pull back or starts to come unwind a little bit, it's clearly going to have an effect on the other.
9:23So, yes, you could call it a moat, but think about how much capital they are deploying, how much they might end up backstopping a lot of their customers. Or to Tim's point, I think that was a great way to kind of, you know, this is a holding company for all intents and purposes now. And the fact that they're going to invest in a company like Perplexity, I think it's really interesting. And Poolside. These are agent companies. They're a lot more data intensive, let's just say, than inference. So they want to continue to have these companies that are building agents to continue to consume a lot of tokens so they can sell them the next generation chip, whether it's Blackwell or Rubin, that sort of thing.
9:58All right. Conversation is just starting again. NVIDIA earnings after the bell on Wednesday. Meanwhile, the Trump administration is unveiling his plan to punish countries doing business with Iran In an effort to choke the Islamic Republic's economy, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessing getting details on Operation Economic Outcast earlier today. CNBC's Eamon Javers has much, much more in this developing story. Eamon, what's the latest? Yeah, Frank, we heard from the Treasury Secretary at the Treasury Building today. They did issue these new sanctions on Iran, enumerating a number of individual entities, a number of individual vessels that they said had been violating U.S.
10:33trade policy in Iran. And so those sanctions going into place today. But the Treasury also holding off on these massive secondary sanctions against countries doing business with the Iranians that a lot of people had expected. The Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, was asked why not follow through on those bigger sanctions today. Here's what he said. We are giving everyone the opportunity to remedy bad behavior. Why would I want to blow up the global financial system? We believe that it is important to level set and give people a cure period, but they should know that that will move very quickly and that we are serious.
11:13So the Treasury Secretary not saying exactly how long that cure period is going to be or what the United States will do if countries don't meet U.S. expectations, but saying that the United States is serious about this. Meanwhile, a response from the Iranian side, here's what they had to say. They said, we are fully prepared for the U.S. sanctions. They cannot cut off our financial arteries. That's from the Iranian economy minister today. And all of that, of course, Frank, coming on a day after a weekend in which we saw these massive new tariffs with Canada after the breakdown of those Canadian trade talks last week.
11:47We've got new sanctions on wine, furniture sanctions, tariffs, new tariffs on wine, furniture, dairy products and clothing. So a whole host of categories here now facing that new 50 percent tariff in the United States. So the Treasury Department and Commerce Department's fighting a number of fronts in this economic war globally. Back over to you. All right. Eamon Javers live from the White House. Eamon, thank you very much. Guy, I want to come over to you on these new potential economic actions and then possible impact on the broader market. Well, I mean, Iran and China have a pretty good relationship, it seems like.
12:21So the ramifications of this are pretty far reaching. We'll see how China reacts. But I look at this and say, OK, what does it mean to the bond market? What does it mean to the commodities market? And I look at it and say, you know what, none of this is bond bullish, in my opinion. So one of the many reasons I've been bearish of the bond market is for things like this and things that continue to happen. And obviously this global debt thing, you just throw this in the mix. It means to me, regardless of some of the things they're trying to do, it means the bond market sells off. It was a day where the bond market, you know, there was more news of digesting what the Treasury really can do.
12:53Can they put their cash on account to work, to use buybacks? Are they going to just really issue significantly shorter and whatever they're going to be doing? That idea of member, like the greatest rhetoric that was ever issued by the U.S. government to push back speculators was was was Hank Paulson and the bazooka that he had in his pocket. And it worked. I'm not sure people feel and we're in a very different time in terms of the U.S. government's balance sheet, for that matter, to threaten the ability to go out there and do whatever needs to be done. Having said that, yields have come a long way.
13:28You could make an argument if you're glass if you're glass half full, meaning positive or I think this is overdone. I don't think yields are going to the moon. You can say yields have been kind of hanging around here at four seventy, four seventy five for a month. I mean, they've had plenty of opportunity to tick higher. And I know there's been different dynamics. So I just to me, it gets more and more uncomfortable when we start talking about massaging the Treasury bond market. And it does feel a little bit more desperate than it should. Yeah, I mean, clearly everybody's seeing a lot of risk in these rising bond yields.
13:59And talking about risk, joining us now to talk much more about the risk facing the markets more broadly, let's bring in our Julian Emanuel, Senior Managing Director at Evercore ISI. I don't know if you're ours. I think you're Evercore ISIs. Julian, great to have you on. Great to be here. Let's finish this conversation we were having earlier. I think it's something you want to talk about, about NVIDIA being an inflection point for the market. And you're seeing a lot more risk post-NVIDIA earnings looking at the VIX, only at about 15. You're saying that's a bit low. It is definitely low. Look, seasonality aside, we've been talking about it just these last few minutes.
14:30This is one of these times where the most important relationship, the most important chart in the world is the 10 year yield. It's not always that way. But this is one of those times because the pressure has been on the bond market because it's going to be very incumbent on yields to remain in check into September. when there's going to be renewed issuance, the capital markets, you know, we've taken a couple of weeks here and the capital markets are going to open up again. And there's just going to be lots and lots of issuance, not just from hyperscalers, not just from global sovereigns, of course, from the U.S.
15:06as well. And all of that feeds into this idea that you are at a potential inflection point where the other part of the narrative is that earning season is over And earnings season, as we all know, has been an incredible catalyst this quarter, was an even more incredible catalyst in April and May. But that's now behind us. And so what you're left with is the kind of setup that we've seen several times along this bull market where you're just hanging out with macro risk. So, Julian, when you have your bull case of 9 ,000 by year end, you spend a lot of time on yields there. So I'm going to ask you out of three things, or maybe it's all three of them.
15:50Is it earnings, yields or FOMO that gets us to your bull case? Well, it's definitely FOMO. No question about it. And, you know, realistically, when we suggested 9000 at the end of the year, at the beginning of this year, we're not going to get there this year. But we do feel very confident that sometime before this cycle ends, we will get to a number like 9000. Because if you look at these structural tech-driven bull markets, whether it was the work from home 2020 into 2021 or, of course, the one that everyone is talking about, which is Y2K, as a comparative, you always got intense amounts of FOMO, surges in capital market activity.
16:34And, you know, there are going to be bigger and more significant IPOs ahead of us. OK, so, Julian, you're talking about all this FOMO, but at the same time, you're making a call on negative beta stocks. That's not sexy at all. I don't think anybody fears on missing out on negative beta stocks. Talking about names like McDonald's, PepsiCo. Why put the money there right now? And for a sexy guy, by the way, to be going on sexy with your picks. No, you would be you would be shocked at the eyeballs at negative beta, because, frankly, if you think about it right. Part of why you've had the sharp moves from time to time that you've had is because essentially people that use hedges, index hedges, lost tons of money owning puts and gave up on that at the times when it was necessary.
17:21But actually, what we found is these negative beta stocks, which correlate inversely to the S &P day in and day out, are actually a way to get index like returns and get diversification from the fact that everything looks like the AI trade. You know, and we think there's more legs to go there. By the way, according to your research, it's like a quarter of the S &P is a negative beta stock. It is. It is incredible. But, you know, no question. And we can certainly understand energy and we can certainly understand how there's more software names, given how software behaved at the beginning of the year.
17:58Less understandable are places like utilities and insurance stocks. But as we all know, financials have been on fire this year, but they've been more a story about the rise in yield. So it kind of makes sense that on rising yield days when the S &P is pressured, maybe insurance stocks do well. So, Julian, I agree you are sexy, but we are out of time right now. By the way, you also made it. You mentioned the puts. You're also calling for IMW November put and SPY October put. We can't talk about it, but I'm just throwing it out there. Julian Emanuel from Evercore ISI, really good to see you as always.
18:32Thank you very much. Guy, I want to come over to you. I dig Julian. And, you know, the negative correlation, negative beta trade. I'll say this. You throw gold in the mix is my sense. And that's having its day in the sun for a myriad of different reasons. I think one of the main reasons is it's not being talked about now the same way it was talked about, you know, last fall into spring of this year. So I think gold's going to catch a lot of people by surprise. I would throw Julian in like the Clooney of strategists. You see the way he's getting the salt and pepper thing going on? Julian, you caught that?
19:01He's laughing. That was great. That was good sound effects. I like the call. Well, I like the fact that Julian is able to look at the bigger picture and be pretty bullish on this tech-driven rally, but talk about tactically where there's some opportunities here and where we are going into a seasonal dynamic. But I think the most important thing is, and we talk about it in the show, second quarter numbers were incredible. But we also know if you strip out those numbers and you strip out some investments in AI and a few dynamics and three companies, those second quarter numbers weren't so good. Yeah, Julian Emanuel, great take on the market and can take a compliment.
19:33He wasn't like, oh, no. Or laugh at all. He just accepted it. He just accepted it. All right. Coming up. Believe the Bitcoin bounce. What to make of crypto's big rebound and the key support levels to watch right now. Plus winning on and off the field. How a former NFL star found financial freedom through investing. And we're going to give you his market playbook right now. Don't go anywhere. Fast Money's back in two.
19:57You're watching Fast Money here on CNBC. We'll be right back.
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21:25We've got a newsletter on a potential IPO for Fitness Tracker, or our Brennan Gomez has the details. Hey there, Frank. That's right. Smart Ring Company, Aura, filing for an IPO, according to Bloomberg, seeking$3 billion. We knew the company did file confidentially back in May, a reported$16 billion valuation. Now, CNBC last had the company valued at$11 billion in October as a Disruptor 50 company. The company could come to market as soon as September. Some competitors on the market already. You have Garmin. You have Apple's watch as well. So we'll just have to see how investors digest another product in the space.
21:56We know there are some other fitness names possibly in the IPO pipeline, too, like the fitness app Strava. So, again, Frank, we'll have to see how the market digests another one. Our Brandon Gomez, the very latest in the fitness space. Brandon, thank you very much. Meantime, we've got Bitcoin rallying today as it hits its highest levels since May. The token up about 22 percent over the past week, closing in on the$80 ,000 mark. Ether, also higher, now trading around$2 ,500. Levels not seen since all the way back in January. Grasso. Yeah, I mean, this stole the heart of a lot of different people, right?
Read the full transcript
22:26Even the people that are hodlers, they got crushed over the last year or so. I own ETH and I own BTC and the Grayscale ETFs. This is something where it's a prove-me state now. You've got to get back. So 80 ,000, yeah, it's a huge mark, but we're at 126 ,000. This happens often, but there's a lot of tailwinds now. So you had the White House meeting last week. You've got stable coins coming into it. You've got maybe possibly the devaluing of the dollar furthering out. So that's gold and that's Bitcoin. So I think you might have a little bit of a runway. But to hit that 80 ,000 mark, you might see some short-term profit taking.
23:04OK. Tim, you got your thoughts on this, Ralph? I mean, Steve's hit the catalyst here. I think the White House was the most important one. I think going into what we're... The clarity, though. What's that? You're talking about clarity? No, last week's meeting. Yeah. And ultimately, you know, legislation around more regulation and more clarity. And the fact that we usually and we have seen some of the biggest moves in Bitcoin and peripheral assets during those times. Yes, gold has rallied almost 20 percent off of the lows. This is a time when they are rallying together. There have been many times they have rallied together for that same reason, that diversification reason.
23:38So, you know, I'd be more cautious here. It doesn't mean that I still don't think that there's not some piece of your asset allocation that, you know, Bitcoin could hold a piece of. But I believe there is really a new catalyst that's needed here. And I'm not sure. I'd rather own gold. Rather own gold. I mean, you already made your case for gold. I mean, Bitcoin, gold, if you had to pick one. Yeah, in the game, we play this game, Would You Rather? You're familiar with that game? I'm very familiar with that. So in the game of Would You Rather, it is gold, in my opinion. I mean, Bitcoin's had a great move.
24:05Good for it. But I think gold is where people are going to wind up being at the end of the day. Tim, can I bounce something super technical off you? Hopefully, I can bounce it back. Let's see what happens. All right. Firm 22V came out. This is in the weeds, man. I'm going to give it to you. Basically, it's a big, fantastic. It's 200 day moving average. Also did a seven sigma move. And this could lead to further substantial gains. Well, when I hear seven sigma moves, I hear about things that are extraordinary. This is technical as I'll get. Those typically are the ones that have defined a change in the character of something.
24:35So, yeah. What's who? 22V. I've got to give him credit. 22V. That's the call sign for this guy. Look, 22V may be onto something. A seven sigma move is not something you see every day. There we go. All right, a lot more Fast Money to come. You do see Fast Money every day, but here's what's coming up next. A different kind of retirement plan. Two-time Super Bowl champion Logan Ryan says he's never spent a cent of his NFL salary inside his portfolio and the money lessons he's learned on and off the field. Plus, Paramount put on notice. how the latest standoff in California could impact its mega merger plans, and the landscape for media M &A now.
25:16You're watching Fast Money, live from the NASDAQ market side in Times Square. We're back right after this.
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27:04And welcome back to Fast Money. Two-time Super Bowl champion and now CBS Sports NFL analyst Logan Ryan made millions during his 10-year NFL career. And today, he still has every penny from his pro football paychecks. Ryan was quite frugal during his playing days, wanting to be able to retire once he walked away from the game at 33 years old. Here to break down how he did it, where he's investing his money, and his advice to other pro athletes, let's welcome in Logan Ryan. Logan, welcome to CNBC, your first time on. Great to have you here. What's going on, Frank? Thanks for having me. I appreciate the opportunity.
27:35All right, Logan, you're living a lot of dreams. You played in the NFL. You won two Super Bowls. You got a broadcasting career. And you also are able to live off your investments. That last one, I think, is the dream of most of our audience. So kind of give us the playbook. How did you do it from the beginning until now? Yeah, it's a great question. I think it starts with why. You know, why did I want to take this approach to be so frugal? And I think, you know, it has to go back to my parents. I came from a family of two hardworking parents. My father was a cop in New Jersey. My mother worked in, you know, selling insurance or handling insurance claims.
28:09And I remember when I got drafted, I received a signing bonus. And everybody, you know, every question you get asked is, what's your first big purchase? What are you going to do? And I remember thinking about that before the draft. And I talked to my dad. I'm like, hey, what do you and mom want? You guys found a way to get me cleats every year. You guys found a way to drive me to practice. whatever it took, a camp, a trainer, they found a way. And my dad said to me, you know what, son, don't worry about us. I'll take care of your mother. You, you earn this. It's your money. You take care of your money.
28:38And that told me right there that my parents didn't need to change their lifestyle. I wasn't going to change my lifestyle. So the checks didn't change my lifestyle. I kind of came in how I came in and I found a way to get the bare essentials of what I needed, but my lifestyle didn't change just because my tax bracket did. So Logan, great story. Props to your parents for raising the way they did. By the way, I know you're from the Philadelphia area. I know you're an Eagles fan, but we're not going to talk about that. I do want to talk about where you're putting your money. Is it stocks? Is it alternative investments?
29:05Is it real estate? I mean, where's this money going? Yeah, you know, honestly, it's really diversified through it all. It's diversified through all the assets. It's balanced. It has been for quite some time against all of it. You know, stocks and bonds and real estate, you name it. It's built to be very safe and sound. But as I've kind of have been able not to touch the salary and the salary has grown every year and compound interest and my money is making money for me and I'm living under that budget, that budget that the returns give me. That's how I kind of budget year to year. Now I'm able to take more calculated risks.
29:41Now I'm able to take more risks into venture capital, into AI, into other things I'm sure we'll get into. But now I've taken more calculated risks longer in my investment game, similar to a player. When you come in in the NFL, you can't be going all over the place. At cornerback, fans know I can't just be getting beat deep because I want to make an interception every single play. I want to make a big splash. I kind of got to earn the respect of my coaches and my teammates by doing it the right way, doing it the safe way. And then you kind of earn your stripes to take more calculated risk when you have more money to protect yourself.
30:14Logan, Rutgers has become defensive back you, thanks to you and a couple other guys. But I'll ask you this. You're the exception, not the norm. Why aren't more guys and gals for that reason now with women's sports doing what you're doing and just following your advice? You know, we're not really taught it. We're taught don't go broke. But they don't tell you my financial literacy was low when I came in the NFL. My parents didn't know a lot about it. They were really working middle class people. I'm sure they refinanced their homes a couple of times and were living on credit card debt. So I didn't know anything about it.
30:46And I was also raised to not talk about your money or not talk about another man's money or woman's money. That is kind of mind your own business in terms of money. So I see so many athletes. I see the negative stories with athletes and money. I see athletes going broke. I've seen athletes mismanaging. I've seen athletes living a certain lifestyle we know is not sustainable throughout their entire lifetime after they retire because it's a click blimp. I retired at 33 years old. I got a lot more life to manage my money after that. So I wanted to speak about the success stories. I want to speak about the power of investing, the power of compound interest.
31:21If we don't touch the money, how much money that would occur throughout our lifetime. And then we can eventually live on that, retire on that and let the money continue to grow for generations. Hey, Logan, Tim, the most impressive thing I've heard about you today and is really how you were raised and that work ethic. And and so I guess let's get into financial literacy and what you can espouse and what you can talk about to those folks that are going through this for the first time, that first contract. What what outside of watching Fast Money, what would be the number one thing you would suggest to a number one pick coming into the league today?
31:56Well, I think your time and attention to finances and your financial literacy is the most important thing you need to know outside of playing football. Football is the main thing or sports from the number one pick. That is kind of what's going to pay your bills. But it doesn't matter how much you make if you spend it all. It only matters how much you save. The player that makes$100 ,000, right, if they only spend$500 ,000, obviously there's taxes or whatever. They only spend$50 ,000. They have more in their bank than the guy that made$10 million and spent$9.9 or$9.75 million of that, clearly, right?
32:33So it's only about how much you save. So the more you can get with a financial advisor or someone that you trust to advise or learn from. And I think that's been the biggest thing. We've obviously see a lot of stories of financial advisors taking advantage of athletes. But I think you've got to build a relationship with someone and learn. And my financial advisor, Doug Rates, has done a great job of teaching me as well over the years, bring me to the meetings before potentially investing with some of these venture capital funds are teaching me the process of compound interest and what I'm investing in and why I should invest in that, or if I don't want to.
33:07So do I know more than him about finances? No, it's not what I went to school for. It's not what I know day to day. But do I spend the time to get to know so he's a peer and we can talk to each other and I can ask a lot of questions and I can learn on the fly at 34 years old? I do that a ton. So I would tell athletes, obviously our whole goal is to make a lot of money, but we also need to know how to save and grow the money as well. So Logan, I'm sure your FA appreciate the shout out. I'm going to give you a shout out. I've actually met you before. I was there in Houston for the 28-3 Super Bowl.
33:35You were a beast in the second half. You killed it, man. It's great to have you on the show. Welcome to CNBC. Logan Ryan, thank you very much. All right, coming up, M &A Mayhem, the latest wrinkle in Paramount's planned merger with Warner Brothers and the outlook for media stocks right now when Fast Money returns.
33:58I knew you had it. Welcome back to Fast Money. Stocks mostly lower to kick off the week. The Dow rising 140 points. The S &P down nearly a third of 1%, while the Nasdaq and the Nasdaq 100, the East lost nearly 1%. HIMSS and HERS, we talked about this stock earlier, sinking 8%. According to Bloomberg, Visa notified the telehealth company of a surge in card customer complaints centered around HIMSS weight loss subscriptions. Trucking stocks also taken a hit after President Trump postponed 50 percent tariffs on Canadian cars and trucks to January 1st. Old Dominion, Nightswift and J.B. Hunt, all of them you can see here firmly in the red.
34:33And Disney rising two and a half percent to its highest level since January. Shares have surged almost 13 percent since the company's August 8th earnings report and are now on a five day win streak. Guy, you actually flagged this. Not that it's all that interesting, but for the first time in a while, Disney actually looks a little bit interesting. And, you know, you go back a few years, Carter would say we potentially are in a bearish to bullish reversal. You need to get above sort of 115 to 118 for this thing to sort of stick. But this is the highest level we've seen at Disney in six months-ish.
35:03And it's been this stealth rally that I think more people should pay attention to. So, Tim, you're also watching this? Yeah, I think, first of all, I'm a believer in just tomorrow. I think it's a new era where there's a focus on the same core. But I think there's an understanding that there's some urgency in starting to deliver on ROE on a lot of the investments in DTC. I think they're happening. I think ESPN is undervalued. I think media, but I think Disney particularly because of the multiple in this market is defensive and people have a lot more confidence. I think the fact that you've made some changes at the top gives people some sense that there's a different story here.
35:38All right. While we're talking about the media business, a new twist in David Ellison's battle to close the merger between Paramount Skydance and Warner Brothers Discovery for the very latest on what it could mean for other media deals. Let's bring in our Julia Borst. Well, Frank, the clock is ticking for David Ellison to settle with California's AG and close the deal because starting October 1st, he's facing a seven million dollar per day ticking fee. Now, Ellison and California AG Rob Bonta were set to meet today ahead of the March trial in Bonta's case to block the merger. But Bonta canceled, saying it's because Paramount did not maintain the confidentiality of a meeting they had Friday, saying they leaked and misrepresented details.
36:21Bonta's office telling is, quote, if the opposing party in litigation wants to meet in good faith to make a sincere effort to resolve the case, we'll meet. Going on to say, as soon as Paramount stops playing games and engages sincerely, my office is happy to meet again. Now, Paramount responding, quote, Paramount has not been the source of the leaks of any of our confidential discussions with the AG's office, saying we remain hopeful and stand ready to continue good faith discussions to resolve the attorney's general suit. Now, M &A lawyers tell me that this battle could have a chilling effect on media M &A, But sources tell me to expect more partnerships in the absence of big deals in the near term.
37:02Now, you can read more about the impact on the M &A landscape of all of this at CNBC.com. Frank? Julia Borson with the very latest. Julia, thank you very much. Dan, I want to come over to you. Listen, the market's pricing like it's going to get done. I mean, the stock's trading at 28, the deal's at 31. Usually you'll see this sort of discount. So, again, you know, if you thought that the federal government was going to be, you know, the real impediment to this deal getting done, we became it became very clear that wasn't the case. And now you got all these states coming at it. So, again, I think at the end of the day, a lot of these states probably are just kind of looking to get some remedies.
37:38They're not looking to block the deal. And we've seen this again and again in M &A. Grasso. Yeah, I mean, to Dan's point, if you look at Paramount, the stock's up for the month, 16 percent or so. Warner's up for the month. So the market's telling you it's going to get done. It might look like sausage making in the interim, but it's going to get done. So I think you just stay the course. All right. Coming up here on Fast Money, biting into restaurant stocks. One Wall Street firm making a slew of calls on that group. The names they say that could serve up some big gains. More Fast Money coming up right after this.
38:15Welcome back to Fast Money. A call today on some restaurant stocks. Baird naming Cava, Chili's owner Brinker, Starbucks, and Dutch Brothers as his top picks in the space, upgrading Darden to outperform. The firm also downgrading both Chipotle and Domino's Pizza to neutral. Analysts pointing to a divergence in the restaurant space as diners. They contend with elevated gas prices, geopolitical uncertainty, and pressures on lower-income consumers. Steve, you have flagged this one. Yeah, I think it's good when you start to look at other stuff besides AI and semis and everything else. And this was an interesting call to me.
38:47And when you look at Brinker International, they just initiated coverage on this one. The stock's already up 77 % year to date. People are still going out to dinner. So if they're still going out to dinner, you have to find what's the most efficient way to invest around that. So we all know about the McDonald's of the world. They're not there. So I thought it was interesting with their call in Brinker. if you look at it, they're going to be pounding the table on this one specifically because they just initiated. So this is going to be the first one that they talk about with any one of their clients.
39:17But I think you have food expenses coming down and you have wages moderating. So those two things that have been incredible headwinds, even if they alleviate to a neutral, huge tailwind for the group. Tim? It's interesting because they also downgraded Chipotle, Domino's, and I think they cited a handful of things, including just margin pressure and growth that's, at least in the case at Chipotle, is very tough to grow at the pace they were. In fact, they were actually talking about some closures. So I think the restaurant space is sideways, meaning I think there are places to own. I do like McDonald's somewhere around 260, 270, but probably hope he can get it around 250.
39:57I don't think it's going to get away from you here. And I do think there's some headwinds that we're going to probably have to process first. Guy? Kava's a big valuation. It probably trades north of 100 times next year's numbers. And margin compression in the space, you know, you want to put a little stock market, I see the upgrade. But this is going to run into resistance on a downtrend we've been in for the last year and a half. So I would fade any rally here in Kava. Dan? I like Tim's call on McDonald's. I mean, you have mid-single-digit earnings in sales growth. It's trading basically below a market multiple.
40:27And I think that investors will come around. It kind of goes back to Julian's negative beta sort of trade. I think at some point you probably look for value. You probably look for inflection points. That hasn't happened in McDonald's yet, but it could be happening soon. One of those negative beta stocks, as you mentioned. All right, coming up, billionaire NBA owner Josh Harris just made some eyebrow-raising comments about the sale of the Lakers in an exclusive interview with CNBC. We're going to bring you those comments right after this break. You don't want to miss it. More Fast in 2.
41:01And welcome back to Fast Money. Billionaire owner of the NFL's Washington Commanders and the NBA's Philadelphia 76ers, Josh Harris. He sat down with CNBC Sports' Mike Ozanian for an exclusive interview in the last hour. They discussed the recent sale of the L.A. Lakers to Bob Iger and Josh Kushner. And, of course, LeBron's huge move to Philly. We had joked, well, maybe LeBron had opted out from the Lakers. And we said, well, maybe we'll go after him. I'm like, man, we were kind of ha ha ha. But then all of a sudden we had a really competitive team. And so we went we went we took it really seriously after that.
41:39I bought the commanders at six billion and everyone said it was the highest price on planet Earth. And I think that now it looks like a good, attractive deal. I think that the Lakers are worth every bit of 12 billion. Well, there you go. Mike joins us now with much more of their conversation. That was eyebrow raising right there. Lakers worth$12.5 billion. What was the rest of the conversation? You know, the interesting thing is, why would you not think 20 times revenue, which is what the Lakers are going to sell for if the deal goes through, is high? I mean, when he bought the 76ers several years, you know, I guess it's over 10 years now, it was like less than three times revenue, to give you a contrast.
42:17He's got his ears into the pipeline of sports because of all the different teams he owns. So he knows the interest, right? He's into the NFL, the NBA, the NHL. English soccer. The demand is there. And these investors, particularly money coming in from private equity now, believe that the revenue growth, both in terms of mixed use real estate, being able to get more fan interest, hospitality, all of these different things, the new NBA Europe League justify the prices. My takeaway was if another premier team in the NBA goes up for sale in the next couple of years, it's going to surpass$12.5 billion.
42:56Wow. And how about that Laker deal? Did you get into just the dynamics with the Buss family and the divisions we've been hearing about within the ranks? And again, some sense that they want a higher price. Didn't talk about that, but you're absolutely right. What's been in the press is Jeannie Bruss thinks she can get a lot more. And based on what Josh Harris said, I think she's right. Yeah, it's extraordinary. And, you know, the next move that I would go is just into hockey. The NHL is now embarking on a period where salary cap's gone higher. There's a lot more revenue in the game. Any thoughts?
43:32Did you hear from him about what's going on with the Devils? He's building out where their arena is in Newark. You know, he's very positive on the sport. Can we say you and I are both big Ranger fans? We can say it loud and clear. I can look at the camera and say I'm a big Ranger fan. We know MSG Sports is sort of moving towards splitting off the two. I mean, that's why I love that stock because, I mean, I'm not a stock picker like you folks, but I mean, I think if you look at how MSG Sports is valued right now, it's valued not even basically just for the Knicks. You get the Rangers for free. Did the situation with the Dodgers come up in your conversation?
44:05It did not. It did not come up. Unfortunately, we ran out of time on that. But look, who knows what the Dodgers would go for if they sell. You know, that's a great, you know, premier brand just like the Lakers. Here's one more question as we're talking about the valuation of these different sports franchises. Did you guys talk about the NFL TV rights and the fact that Fox says they're not going to renegotiate? Obviously, that has an impact, especially on him as the owner of an NFC team. That didn't come up. You know, he's so, I mean, Josh is so busy right now. I've been following this for decades.
44:36I've never seen an owner who has a new football stadium opening up in 2030, a new basketball and hockey arena opening up in 30. Is building out his soccer stadium out for Crystal Palace and building out real estate. And he's starting a new WNBA franchise kick you off in 2030. I mean, it's an insane year. Mike, I held back. I held back. Did you guys talk about LeBron, what it means for the Sixers? I'm a Sixers fan. I'm already making the call. Sixers and four. Like Moses Malone once said. Come on, dude. Faux, faux, faux. Relax. Hey, look, give it up. We'll find out an opening night because the Sixers are the Knicks play, and the NBA and Adam Silver did not do the Knicks any favor.
45:14You're going to put down that banner, and a lot of tears are going to be in. Hey, look, what has the odds gone for a championship before that trade, 20-1? Now they're third-best odds in the league they're tied with. Are there enough basketballs on that team? Come on, man. Ain't going to happen. Tim, come on. Right, guy? Listen. They're going to need a few basketballs for all those gunners. We'll find everything out on opening night. The banners are going to come down, and so are the tears. Your center's got to stay healthy. I promise you guys. That's a variable. All right, coming up next. Thank you, Mike.
45:42Coming up next, we've got your final trades. Do not go anywhere.
45:51All right, welcome back. It is time for final trades. Let's go around the horn. Tim, you're first up. Frank, first of all, great to have you. And I think the sell-off in Alibaba and that issuance, they weren't rewarding it when they were buying back stock. So, I'm going to take the lead from Bear with their outperform on Brinker. E-A-T. Dan? I like Tim's call on McDonald's. I love you, Frank. The Sixers are lucky if they win 37 games. I'm just telling you. You're going to ruin the day. That's a bad final trade. I'll take the under. You know what? Then I'll give you this. How about Dollar Jim? There we go.
46:26We're going to leave it there. Thanks for watching Fast Money. Mad Money with Jim Kramer starts right now. Thank you.
47:03CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Fast Money Disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com forward slash Fast Money Disclaimer. Everyone talks about how challenging it is to raise kids, but what about protecting them? Outlet covers, kitchen cabinet locks, baby gates, where do you even start? Well, protecting your home and auto is a great place to start. Progressive offers customized coverage options so you can be sure you have the right coverage. They're basically the baby gates of insurance. Get a quote at Progressive.com.
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From the publisher
Chip stocks under pressure ahead of Nvidia’s closely-watched earnings due Wednesday. The traders debate what the weakness is signaling about the AI trade. Then, two-time Super Bowl champion Logan Ryan talks investing his $80 million NFL salary and how it helped him retire at age 33. Plus, bitcoin closes in on $80k, appetite for restaurant stocks and 76ers co-owner Josh Harris on LeBron James’ move to Philly.
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