Software Leading a Market Rally… And What To Expect from Yen Intervention. 8/3/26

17:49Tim Seymour:So even if there are cuts here, which could affect the shorter term end of the curve, how do you guys view the longer term end of the curve, which can affect things like your housing market and mortgage rates and things like that? Like, will that come down also? What's your view there? Yeah, unfortunately, I would like to say that it is coming down, but I think we're getting to a new normal. And really, the intermediate sort of part of the curve is probably the best place to place clients' fixed income or duration assets. And in terms of the individual investor, I still think there needs to be some kind of relief for these first-time homebuyers and things like that.

18:24The mortgage rates might go back to what the norm was back in, I don't know, the 90s or so, where it was more like a 6%. You got to be getting questions about SpaceX going into it, and I guarantee you're getting it now. Talk about SpaceX. Technically, I can't speak about individual stocks. However. However, I can speak about IPOs and things like that. So I would say, you know, traditionally we have seen wealth creation during the IPO. right immediately following. But in the last few years, we've seen a transition, a shift, and that's in the private market space where value is created early on.

18:57And you have to be a private investor to participate in that. Now, what can happen is you'll go to the IPO, you won't see that wealth creation right up front. But I would say if you have a long-term view of a company or a sector, you should either buy at the dip, maybe not be part of the IPO. If you're a long-term investor, maybe wait until you see a little bit of a pullback and go in, or just say, at the end of the day, it's going to fluctuate in price. And when you can go in as it drops, hopefully you get points to purchase.

19:29Tim Seymour:Are you hearing from clients, for instance, that may have had exposure to these high-flying IPOs, these well-known headline-grabbing IPOs like a SpaceX or Jersey Mike's that are down, that they've gotten bitter over the IPO process. I see two kinds of investors, really. There's the ones that are going in for the fast money, and there's the ones that are there for the long haul because they really want to own that company. So I've had conversations with different clients over the years with, you know, IPOs that they're interested in, and they will say, no, I want to hold it because I want to hold this for a long period of time.

20:08And you think back to a lot of the early stage technology companies, you know, 20 years ago, we've seen incredible growth in wealth. So sometimes, you know, there's opportunities for trades and sometimes there's opportunities for long term thinking and you have to find that balance.

20:23Tim Seymour:Kathy, you've got to leave it there. Good to see you. Thank you. Thank you. Kathy Antwistle. Well, what do you think? The cleansing of the MAG-7 is interesting and part of what we talked about. And I think this is it's important because I think there are clients out there that actually they saw the types of moves in Meta. They saw the types of moves in some of the other names. And it's like, hey, should we be doing something here? I think I think those instincts have been obviously right. But I think people don't want to get too far away from these trades. The IPO market and SpaceX was such a unique story in terms of where people are playing the long game there.

20:57But this is something that, you know, the question about the valuation was so difficult going into that IPO. that it's hard to say I told you so. It just feels like there was room to wait, and there will be those IPOs that you have to own, but this wasn't one. We play the game, if I told you this, what would... And if you had said to me, SpaceX is going to break price in a week, and it's going to be trading either side of$105, what's the broader market? I'd be like, the broader market's getting smoked because it was such a consumer sentiment thing in terms of what people were focused on, and it has not played out that way at all.

21:31And if you look at what's going to happen with open AI, and some of the other names that are coming public this year. Market doesn't seem to care.

21:37Tim Seymour:Coming up, Boeing catches a tailwind. The FAA green light that sent shares soaring today and why one Wall Street firm just flipped from bear to bull. Plus a retail reawakening, the big news breathing life into the sector today and whether the rally has more room to run. Don't go anywhere fast when he's back in tune.

21:55This is Fast Money with Melissa Lee right here on CNBC.

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23:32Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. Shares of Boeing soaring 8 % on two bullish catalysts. First, analysts at BNP Paribas upgrading the stock to outperform from underperform, boosting the price target to$300 from$230. The FAA also certifying Boeing's 737 MAX 7 plane, the smallest model in the 737 line, the move following almost a decade of delays tied to deadly crashes of the company's MAX 8 model. Is this the B in Timbo? No, it's not. It has been much like a guy looking back on his hopes gone by. This was this might have been the B and Bicep. Bicep, yes. Yes. But but I do think the Max 7 approval is an important moment sentiment wise.

24:14I think it's very important. Also, tailwind wise, I guess pun intended. I don't know. But it's less about these upgrades today. It's more about a company that does seem to be on the right side of the regulatory environment. And I realize that could change. But remember, this has been such a long term thing and the company has been looking for some guidance. I don't know that the investor community has been waiting for this. I think the analyst community actually likes it. I do think it's a case of free cash flow once again with Boeing. I do think this is a company that will surprise to the upside.

24:44I do think that the re-rating that's going on in the airline industry could be played upon what's going on on the industrial side. Yeah, free cash flow, Tim Nelda. And I think they reported on the 28th or so in the quarter suggested exactly that. So you rarely see it. Was it a double upgrade? You don't see that that often. It's very rare. It's like a double secret probation. Double what? Double secret probation. Double secret probation, of course, is what happened to the fraternity in Animal House. They were put on double secret probation. I didn't expect you to know that, by the way. With that said, you rarely see it.

25:18But this one's justified. So they've been getting in their own way now for the last five or six years of Boeing. Finally, they seem to be getting out of their own way. I think this is the right move.

25:27Tim Seymour:I mean, it's interesting. You mentioned the earnings before. They were mixed results. It's not like this double upgrade came on the back of Gangbuster's results, and it was like right afterwards sort of a delay, and it wasn't clear that this was going to be a double upgrade candidate out of earnings. Yeah, but I think this has been a story people have wanted to see for so long. There has been a turnaround. This is a duopoly. They should eventually come back up to speed here, but they have just had setback after setback, and I think we've had a long enough period here where that turnaround is getting believed, and I think that's what those double upgrades are showing, is that people are actually really getting behind this story.

25:55Tim Seymour:And I think that's a good sign. Carter, are you behind the chart?

25:59Guy Adami:Yeah, I mean, just as you all have articulated, it's something that's gone nowhere, done nothing, has sort of been non-participatory. In fact, it's the exact same level it was in August of 2021. The stock was around$230 then, and here we are at$233. three. I think it's an excellent kind of thing to have in a book rather than just having only high flyers that are working and then all of a sudden crashing and all of the things that are in the news. It's always good to double back, find something like this that's sort of off the radar, that hasn't participated and favor it. And so I would. All right.

26:35Tim Seymour:There's a lot more fast money to come. Here's what's coming up next. Retail therapy. Investors flocking back into the discretionary trade? What's driving big gains in names like Target and Macy's? And which stocks should you add to your shopping cart? Plus, a yen intervention inside the historic move to prop up Japan's currency and the potential ripple effects on stocks, bonds, and beyond. You're watching Fast Money, live from the NASDAQ market side in Times Square. We're back right after this.

27:13Tim Seymour:The board recommends approving... Regarding that seat on the committee, we're promoting... To boost quarterly earnings... Every day, shareholders meet to discuss important matters about the companies you invest in. Now you can easily make your voice heard. Vanguard Investor Choice gives you a say in the companies you invest in. With just a few taps, you can set your proxy voting preference for your index funds. Visit vanguard.com slash investorchoice to learn more. Vanguard Investors own shares of our index funds, which own shares of the companies they invest in. Available for Vanguard Index funds that participate in Investor Choice.

27:41Vanguard Marketing Corporation distributor. Support for this podcast comes from Progressive, America's number one boat insurer. We've all made mistakes on the water, but there's one mistake you shouldn't make, being uninsured. With Progressive Boat Insurance, you can choose coverage for most mistakes you or other boaters could make, helping you float carefree all season long. Quote today, Progressive Casualty Insurance Company and Affiliates, number one rating based on 2024 filings with State Departments of Insurance.

28:08Tim Seymour:When you partner with CDW, you get more from your devices with solutions that take modern work to the next level. CDW experts are delivering powerful productivity with Lenovo AI PCs, helping users block out distractions, access virtual support anytime, anywhere, and share content seamlessly between devices. Make amazing happen. Learn more at cdw.com slash Lenovo. Welcome back to Fast Money, a rally in the retail space today with the XRT ETF up almost 2%, closing near its highest level in nearly five years. Among the big winners, Abercrombie & Fitch with its best day since November, long-struggling target also higher, closing at its best level since November 2024.

28:56Tim Seymour:And Macy's gaining 5 % today, the stock ending the day near more than four-year eyes. Once upon a time, you had Macy's. I did. And it might have been in the me trade. I don't know. But there's no question it's a name that I've owned at different times. And I was looking at it in my screens today and it jumped out because ultimately, what has really changed to Macy's? Their addressable market hasn't really changed. The margin profile has. And this is a company that has figured out how to operate in this declining department store space, but also with their online business and also their real estate value and a much better balance sheet.

29:31So I think this is indicative of where the market is looking for consumer names going into retail earnings with a consumer that is better. Macy's is not expensive. It's probably trading sub kind of eight times. And I think he can go higher on this one.

29:44Tim Seymour:How are you feeling about Macy's, Carter, or retail in general?

29:48Guy Adami:Well, starting with the XRT, which you mentioned, I mean, it's slowly poking its head up now well below its all-time high of 2021. But I think the bias is up here and I would be long that particular instrument, XRT. Macy's fine, closed around 25, 26 that I would play for 28.

30:10Tim Seymour:Yeah, and I think what this does is it challenges the idea that the consumer is falling apart. They're clearly holding in, I think, better than people have been giving them credit for. But you do want to be selective of names here because people are being choosy of where they spend their money. So just looking at this, like for example, Macy's is up 14 % since the beginning of the year. Take a name like Lululemon is down 40%. So I think you just really want to look at where you're spending your money. I wouldn't look at this as a sector on its whole, but I think there's names that'll work here.

30:35Tim Seymour:And I also like the idea that you're seeing names like this working alongside the AI trade. It's just, again, indicative that this is a broad market rally, and that's what I like to see. The turnaround in Target, as Tim has talked about, is clearly underway. That is in my acronym. That is the T for Tim, though. Is it this year? Yeah. Oh, wow. Good to be on time, right? This one, you know what? You got this one, cold because, I mean, the stock's up 80-something percent since the lows, which is amazing. They don't report their off cycle. August 19th, it probably continues to rally because it's broken a downtrend that's been in place since the summer of 2021.

31:07So good on target, as they say. I also think because Walmart had taken so much oxygen out of the room, and I think Walmart, and I'm reading reports from the street, Wolf had a note where they said they actually think that same-store sales could be a little messier than people think. You have a dynamic here where they're moving in two different directions in terms of the trends on same-store sales and the overall merchandising mix. And I think giving room to other names because Walmart is such a massive name and it's been everybody's favorite stock, not so much.

31:37Tim Seymour:Yeah. Carter, quick on Walmart.

31:38Guy Adami:Well, I mean, to Tim's point, it's not just Walmart. It's Walmart, it's Costco, it's TJX, the three biggest winners of all. It's just the same circumstances in the market overall. The winners, the high flyers are under pressure. its rotation, and people are doubling back and finding laggards and trying to play them. All right.

31:56Tim Seymour:Coming up, the next move for Japan, why the U.S. just swooped in to bolster the long struggling yen and the major implications it could have for markets. Fast Money's back right after this. Missed a moment of fast? Catch us anytime on the go. Follow the Fast Money Podcast. We're back right after this.

32:23Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. Stocks in rally mode to start the week. The Dow rising nearly 700 points to record close to close up records. Excuse me. The S &P gaining a percent and a half. The Nasdaq rose over two percent. Exxon and Chevron lower after President Trump said the companies made, quote, too much money on high oil prices tied to the Iran war. Both companies reported profit windfalls in their latest quarters. Exxon ending down just a quarter of a percent, while Chevron fell nearly two percent. And some stocks on the move after reporting in the last hour on semi-surging after topping estimates, saying it expects AI data center revenue to more than double this year.

32:56Tim Seymour:Whirlpool dropping after missing estimates and cutting full year guidance, setting an updated interest expense outlook. And Snap soaring after revenues and daily active users came in ahead of expectations. You can watch, by the way, Snap CEO Evan Spiegel in a CNBC exclusive interview tomorrow morning, 8, 10 a.m. Eastern time on Squawk Box. I didn't want to go to oil because you said last week that for sure all these companies would have targets on their backs because of their strong quarterly report. Yeah, that's what we got right. And it was pretty I thought over the weekend you'd hear it on the weekend shows.

33:27But you heard it from the president directly again talking about how well these companies are doing. And I'm saying vilifying, but saying we need to get prices down. So I think the stocks were definitely in the crosshairs. By the way, the quarters were really, really strong. I think these stocks should continue to go higher. But for a couple of days, at least you can see what the problem is going to be.

33:44Tim Seymour:I mean, he singled out Chevron and its CEO, Mike Wirth, saying, oh, well, you should be thankful to President Trump and the great administration. Venezuela, exactly. And I guess what's fascinating here is a political base that's very supportive of these oil companies. So it's, you know, this is politics and this is how you have to play it. And ultimately, it's not a reason to run away from the oil companies. That free cash flow dynamic that was well beyond high expectations is something I think you can still invest behind. I think they continue to re-rate. Carter, would you rather integrated or refiners right now?

34:21Guy Adami:Well, the refiners are pretty darn stretched. I'd rather go after Exxon or Chevrolet. I mean, that was very succinct.

34:30Tim Seymour:That's good, yeah. I mean, he could have played it up a little bit. Well, Mel, since you're asking me to play the game, which I enjoy. He doesn't engage in such competition. No, Tom Fullery. I know this. All right, let's get to the yen. Strengthening today after the U.S. stepped in to buy the Japanese currency over the weekend. It was the first intervention since 1998. The yen hit its lowest levels in almost 40 years last week. For more on the ripple effects of the move, FedWatch Advisors founder and CIO Ben Emmons joins us now. Ben, great to see you. Good to see you, Mel. It was good to be on.

34:58Tim Seymour:It was a coordinated intervention, which maybe is more important. And I'm wondering how long you think this works for. Yeah, that is actually an open question because, you know, this is the first time they do coordinate it. And as I looked at the data, there was a big spike in yen volume on Thursday. But on Friday, the euro volume, which the Treasury traded in, was actually really low or nothing. So my guess is they're going to come back with more, Mel. They're going to try to push this yen a little lower. And I got to note that the yen is hovering just above 155 to the dollar, which is a pretty key technical support from since 2022 move.

35:38So I think that they're going to try to break through that. And that could give us a little bit more rally in this yen. Now, we know what happened two years ago in August of 2024 when yen strength led to this carry unwind, this yen carry unwind. So I have to watch that, too, because if you're getting more squeeze on the yen down, stronger yen, And then that carry trade comes to play. Ben, Tim, what's a more powerful force for the BOJ and the political cycle at home in Japan? Is it inflation that clearly is in Japan and something that is starting to bite the consumer? Or is it the fact that it's been such a tailwind for Japanese exporters?

36:16The Japanese stock market is one of the best performers in the world on very long Japan. I would be concerned about an overly significant move in the unappreciation. Yeah, I think that's right, Tim, because it has been a major tailwind and they've been very careful with raising rates. Now, also because the banking system sits in so many JGBs, there's a lot of risk there. And then this inflation picture in the meantime is accelerating and they are relying almost 90 percent of their energy imports from the Strait of Hormuz. So I think what we're dealing with here is that this is maybe the compromise, get the yen somewhat stronger to the dollar and the euro, but not such extent that it affects their export machine or their banking system for that matter.

37:01So I think once the yen sort of like pears out, which is going to happen with these interventions, this is actually a buy, right? The Nikkei becomes interesting. That's kind of traded off from the high. I think there will be an opportunity. And Treasury getting involved suggests everybody realizes this is a problem. I would say all roads lead to gold on the back of this. Any thoughts on that? Yeah, it would be a difficult road here, Guy, because the history of interventions, even the coordinated ones, at some point the market knows that they're in the market, so it doesn't have much surprise element.

37:35If you look at this data, they have something like one to one, a half trillion of a war chest, if you will, but that would include also selling treasuries. So there's a limit to how much they can do. So the only way they can actually get the yen really materially down would be a peg on the yen. And that requires like a really significant policy commitment on both sides, which I don't think will happen. So I think the yen intervention will be with us for the next sort of week to two weeks. But then it fades off.

38:03Tim Seymour:There are some talk then that there is beyond what happened recently that in September there will be coordinated central bank action that both will hike. Do you believe that's going to happen? We're going to see both banks hike rates. So that's interesting dynamic, Mel, because the Bank of Japan will raise rates again. They've signaled that. But we know with the Fed what's happening. So we don't know exactly about that. But if they both do that, then you're not going to see much of a yen strength from here. I mean, if anything, I think the dollar would actually rally more on a Fed hike, given what's happening with our economy and what happened last Wednesday, and the way interest rates reacted to the press conference.

38:46So I think it's an interesting way of thinking about it. My guess is that they will stay coordinated to an extent, but it actually puts the yen in some sort of a range once they hike both. My guess is we're going to end up somewhere in the 150 to 155 range on the dollar yen if they both hike interest rates.

39:05Tim Seymour:All right. Ben, good to see you. Thank you. Thank you. Ben Emmons of FedWatch. By the way, be sure to catch Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Squawk Box. That's tomorrow, 730 a.m. Eastern time, right here on CNBC. So I'm sure he'll get a lot of questions about this intervention and coordinated action. At what point do you start getting concerned about your Japanese stock holdings? Well, I think somewhere kind of around 154, there's some levels there that I think would really trigger next level down or strengthening of the yen. I do think Japan is certainly still considered an export economy.

39:36I think the Japanese banks would be most exposed here. And I do think that there's a credit dynamic at some point. All of this should, though, help the rates dynamic. And what we've seen with JGB yields is they've been moving in the other direction of the currency that's been depreciating. So that would take some pressure off the banks.

39:53Tim Seymour:What do you see in Japan, Carter?

39:56Guy Adami:Well, I mean, the sell-off is sort of in the same time frame as it was the Nikkei sell-off, as the Kaspi, the Taiwan Stock Exchange, the U.S. SOX index and so forth. But it was the most sort of mild of all, dropping only 17 percent, where those others have dropped much more. My hunch is to play the Nikkei for a bounce here.

40:16Tim Seymour:And I think when you look at markets today, you're seeing oil down and rates are down, which markets are liking. But what this does risk is that there has to be treasuries that are sold off in order to support this, which could potentially send rates higher. And I think that's one of the concerns here, which would put into question your longer duration assets. So I don't think we're there yet, but I think that's why you need to watch this. Coming up, a screaming biotech buy, the technical signals that have the chart master turning bullish on Amgen and the key levels for investors to watch when Fast Money returns.

40:48Tim Seymour:Welcome back. Shares of Amgen, down ahead of its earnings report tomorrow afternoon. Shares of the biotech hit a record on Thursday, and the chartmaster says there are more gains to come. Carter, what do you see?

40:58Guy Adami:Well, let's get right to it. So I have five charts, four daily and then one long term. So here is Amgen's chart with no judgments. Let's go ahead and annotate it. First iteration of three more. It's all very symmetrical, right? The sell-off since March 2nd, the recovery right back to the level from which the sell-off occurred. And here we are trading exactly at the former high. Another way to draw the lines, just to reiterate just how remarkably similar the recovery has been to the preceding sell-off, literally the same number of days, weeks, hours down, and then right back up. The sort of technical way to draw it, next chart would be whether you call it an ascending wedge or an ascending triangle.

41:44Guy Adami:This setup more often than not is resolved higher, where you come away from a peak, return to it, and then that's what a breakout candidate is. Final chart. This is a long term, and these are perfectly mathematical 45 degree lines. The stock has ascended north by northeast, higher, steadily higher, never getting extended for the past 10 years. Just to get to that upper boundary is about 412. And that's a nice sort of 8, 9 % move from here. And we think it's right to be long into earnings. Guy. They have$6 billion drugs. I mean, valuation is definitely not a concern. If there is a concern, it comes in the form of that trend, which we're at the upper end of.

42:26And the fact that of the 35 analysts that cover it, the average price target is about 358, which is obviously lower than we are now. So this would be a classic breakout. You need them absolutely to crush on the revenue side, which I think they're capable of doing. We've seen it before. I think they've beaten revenue 18 in the last 20 quarters, and I think they've beaten EPS 16 in the last 20. So it's poised for this type of move.

42:50Tim Seymour:By the way, there's a lot of pharma earnings out this week in particular, Lilly, Novo, Merck, Pfizer. Yeah, and Pfizer for sure looking for that catalyst. I would just go also to even a Biogen, which is the B in Timbo. That's the B in Timbo. As a similar chart. Lakembi is a catalyst. It's certainly been a catalyst to upgrades. I think you look at what's going on in the pharma space today. There was a big, you know, at least a lot of noise around AstraZeneca and Bristol Myers and certainly didn't behave well for AstraZeneca stock, which I am long. So there is some talk and we've talked about this a lot.

43:25There's a lot of money in pharma, M &A, biotech, for sure.

43:29Tim Seymour:Yeah, I think that AstraZeneca news was a big headline today because you're seeing a lot of M &A in this space as they're really having to buy up for their next leg of growth here. And I think you're going to continue to see that. So especially on these earnings reports, I think you want to start to listen to what's next here. Coming up, transports trucking higher inside the stocks leading the group this year. And whether the latest bounce is just a pit stop or the start of a longer rally. More Fast Money in two.

43:58Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. Airline stocks taking off today. Frontier, Alaska, United and American taking off after President Trump backed down from further strikes in Iran. Cruise lines also sailing higher. Norwegian cruise line rising nearly 6 percent. Carnival and Royal Caribbean also seeing a boost today. The move's helping the transports, which have quietly been outperforming the rest of the market this year. The group's 18 percent gain, handily beating the broader industrial sector and more than doubling the performance of the S &P. Tim, you flagged this one. Yeah, it's a lot more than the S &P.

44:28In fact, it's probably a three-bagger to the S &P. And last week was a particularly bad week for transports. Obviously, in the early part of the week, as oil prices went higher, we know the impact there for airlines and related. But it's the rails that were big underperformers. And honestly, there was some bad earnings, but ultimately, I think the whole group got taken down. There's some rotation. I think you go back into that trade. I do think that the numbers there have been fantastic. And I like the rails and the airlines. I'm sorry, real quick. UPS reported that stocks total of 7%. It had a big move into earnings, but I think the pullback, you got to buy it.

45:01I think valuation is still compelling here. And I think analysts probably offside. So I think UPS goes higher.

45:06Tim Seymour:Carter, what in transports do you like?

45:09Guy Adami:Well, rail's a little stretched. Of course, it's a price weighted index, right? So Norfolk Southern and Union Pacific are almost 20 percent of the entire Dow Jones transportation. Those two, I think they're extended. I would double back and favor things like airlines here.

45:24Tim Seymour:Yeah, and I think this, again, it's a really good sign of the broader economy. You're seeing that things are moving right now, which is exactly what you want to see. And I do think this is something you want to be into, especially if you see geopolitical risk is coming down here, which it is. That will, again, improve the space even more so. So I think you absolutely want to be in here. And Guy's a doubt theorist, so he likes this move. Well, Charles and I went to school together, so I was very proud of him when he came up with that. Rest in peace. Up next, Final Trades. Rest in peace.

45:59Tim Seymour:Final trade time. Carter Braxton North are worth charting.

46:02Guy Adami:EJX has stalled, and we think it's in Trumbullet, Walmart, and Costco. They're not a place to be. We're sellers. Timbo. We've got a couple weeks until Walmart and Target, but Target, same store sales. I think they're going to surprise. Second half comps are easy. I think the multiple continues to move higher.

46:19Tim Seymour:Courtney. Ahead of earnings here, I take a look at Caterpillar. It's down almost a quarter from its highs right now, so I think I'd take a look here. Mass exodus at Shea. I mean, they're jettisoning players left and right. Why would we give him so much time today? It's going to be amazing if they could field a team. Mel was just saying it before. Look, those are some great moves by the Yankees, too. And if you're expecting those three old guys to get back on the playing field. Anyway, what's your final strike? It would be Alibaba, Tim. Oh, it's not the beam, Timbo. Thanks for watching Fast Mad Money with Jim Cramer starts right now.

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