In short
Fast Money (5/28/26) covers a “software surge” rally alongside a hawkish, controversial Fed call and broader tech/consumer credit themes. Topic: IGV and software names rebound (IGV near four-month highs; Snowflake up ~35%; Dell up ~20% after a beat). The desk debates whether the AI-driven rerating is sustainable or a bubble-like chase, arguing rates matter less while AI capex visibility remains strong, but warning that extreme price moves could eventually reverse. Key claim from guest Joe LaVornia (SMBC chief U.S. economist; former Treasury economic counselor to Scott Bessent): today’s Core PCE (3.3% y/y, nearly three-year high) implies the Fed should hike at least 100 bps, not cut; inflation is partly a supply shock (energy/commodities/supply-chain fragility), and bond markets would likely handle a well-telegraphed hike.
Notable examples
Dell’s AI-server demand and ~$10B Pentagon software deal; Snowflake’s enterprise AI growth and AWS partnership; Anthropic’s $65B funding/Claude Code demand.
Guests
Joe LaVornia; Medhi Hosseini (Susquehanna senior equity analyst on Dell).
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Chapters
Tap a time to open that second in VOInflation and Fed Rate Plans
1:38 to 2:56
Discussion on inflation and the potential need for the Fed to hike rates.
“All three major averages closing on records today with software names, some of the biggest winners.”
Bond Market Perspectives
2:56 to 4:52
Insights into how the bond market reacts to Fed rate hikes and inflation dynamics.
“There's no tightening of financial conditions, and the inflation numbers, the three - and six-month change show inflation moving up towards 4%.”
Consumer Impact and Stock Market Dynamics
4:52 to 7:18
Analysis of consumer confidence data and its implications for the stock market.
“So, Joe, when you look at this, it's either inflation is either a demand pull or a cost push.”
Earnings Alerts and Market Movements
7:18 to 12:00
Updates on earnings reports from Dell and the overall software market performance.
“At some point, it will be if the economy slows or the earnings aren't met.”
Concerns Over Market Behavior
12:00 to 14:01
Debate on the sustainability of current stock price movements and potential market corrections.
“What does raising rates by 100 basis points?”
Evaluating Software Stocks and Market Dynamics
14:01 to 19:04
Discussion on the growth and valuation of software companies, especially Dell and Snowflake.
“you have 85 percent growth, whether it was in NVIDIA, whether it was in Micron, whether it was here this quarter, you know, I mean, in earnings growth, it is truly, truly astounding.”
Anthropic's Funding and Market Position
19:04 to 20:38
Insights on Anthropic's recent funding round and its implications in the AI market.
“CNBC's Kate Rooney has the details there.”
Pricing and Demand for AI Services
20:38 to 21:54
Exploration of the pricing strategies for AI services and the impact on businesses.
“Kate Rooney, what do you make of this chase here?”
Impacts of Major IPOs on the Market
21:54 to 24:10
Discussion on the upcoming IPOs and their potential effects on the stock market.
“And, you know, the stocks at ninety one dollars or wherever close it is too cheap.”
Retail Earnings and Consumer Trends
24:21 to 28:00
Analysis of recent retail earnings reports and consumer spending behavior.
“So while others are busy talking, we're busy building.”
Show all 24 chapters
Costco's Membership Dynamics
28:00 to 29:14
Discussion on Costco's membership retention and digital sales growth.
“A CEO saying on the call just now, Fuel is driving membership gains, with some locations requiring multiple fuel deliveries daily.”
Valuation and Competitor Analysis
29:15 to 30:29
Analysis of Costco's valuation and comparison with Walmart and Sam's Club.
“She's a big fan of her son and of Fast Money, number one.”
Preview of Upcoming Segments
30:30 to 31:02
Teasing segments on Caesars and auto loan trends.
“Tillman Fertitta's entertainment company placing its bets on the casino name.”
Discussion on Caesars and Economic Outlook
32:12 to 33:51
Discussion on Caesars acquisition and its implications for the gaming industry.
“the fights we must win the future we must secure together for our nation this is what's in front of us this determines what's next for all of us we are marines We were made for this.”
Dell's Earnings and Market Position
33:52 to 35:16
Review of Dell's earnings report and market valuation insights.
“Stocks hitting fresh record closes today as investors cling to hopes for an Iran peace deal.”
Understanding Dell's Margin Dynamics
35:17 to 37:38
In-depth analysis of Dell's margins and competitive landscape.
“If you look at one of the key competitors like Supermicro, in addition to all the investigation, the company cannot get the margins much above the single digit.”
Market Trends and Future Projections
37:39 to 39:11
Insights on broader market trends and future projections for memory stocks.
“Well, I'm not going to answer that question now because all the estimates are under review.”
Auto Loan Market Overview
39:12 to 41:45
Analysis of rising auto loan payments amidst climbing vehicle prices.
“So it just reinforces the area of the market.”
Consumer Spending on Vehicles
41:46 to 42:07
Discussion on consumer behavior regarding vehicle purchases and financing.
“And of those loans, you'll be surprised to hear what those people are buying.”
Auto Market Trends and Consumer Behavior
42:07 to 44:38
Explore the rise in auto loan payments and the implications for the market.
“The chip crisis in 21 and 22 meant you saw a big spike in transaction prices for new vehicles.”
Impact of Interest Rates on Subprime Borrowers
44:38 to 45:21
Discuss how rising rates affect subprime borrowers and auto companies.
“And Capital One, just to bring it back to the stock market, Capital One is the largest lender of subprime loans.”
Federal Probe into Reid Hoffman
45:21 to 46:08
Get insights into the federal investigation involving LinkedIn's Reid Hoffman.
“why this trade is sitting out the rally.”
Bitcoin's Struggles in the Crypto Market
46:08 to 47:27
Examine Bitcoin's performance against the backdrop of a rally in tech stocks.
“While the crypto did close off session lows, it is now down more than 5 percent over the past week.”
Final Trades and Market Opinions
47:27 to 48:08
Hear the final trade ideas from the Fast Money team and their market insights.
“This is a company that's expected to have 95 % earnings growth, 75 % sales growth this year, 86 % gross margins.”
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:00Joe Lavorgna:At Edward Jones, we believe rich isn't about having life all figured out. It's opening yourself to all the possibilities. That's why your dedicated financial advisor provides long-term planning built around you, meeting you where you are, and helping you get closer to where you want to be. So no matter where you're starting from, you can move forward with confidence. The key to being rich is knowing what counts.
0:25Fast Money Hosts:Let's find your rich. Edward Jones, member SIPC. Never bet against American grit or American energy. Through innovation, Venture Global is not only building some of the largest energy facilities in the world right here in the United States, but delivering American energy at a fraction of the cost and a fraction of the time. So while others are busy talking, we're busy building. That's Venture Global. That's unstoppable energy.
1:01Joe Lavorgna:Live from the Nasdaq market site in the heart of New York City's Times Square, this is Fast Money. Here's what's on tap tonight. A software surge, the IGV hitting four-month highs with Snowflake gaining more than 35 percent just today. What's behind the big bump in these long-lagging stocks and how much more room is there left to run? And elsewhere in the tech trade, Dell soaring after a monster earnings beat. We'll talk to one top analyst about the next move for this stock. And rapidly rising car prices are sending auto loans to dizzying new heights. the latest eye-popping numbers, and the surprising makes and models seeing the greatest demand.
1:34Joe Lavorgna:I'm Melissa Lee. Come to you live from Studio B at the NASDAQ. I'm the desk tonight. Steve Grasso, Dan Nathan, Guy Adami, and Danny Moses, hosts of On the Tape podcast and co-author of What Are We Doing? Contrarians at the Gate on Substack. All three major averages closing on records today with software names, some of the biggest winners. We'll get to that in just a moment. But first, a controversial call from former top economic advisor to President Trump, Joe LaVornia, who's now chief U.S. economist at SMBC, contends the inflation numbers out today reinforce the need for the Fed to hike rates, get this, by at least 100 basis points.
2:10Joe Lavorgna:Of course, Trump has been calling for cuts for years. This morning's release of Core PCE, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, showed prices rose at an annual rate of 3.3 percent in April, a nearly three-year high. Let's bring in Joe Livornia. He most recently served as Treasury Secretary Scott Besson's economic counselor. Joe, great to have you with us.
2:27Fast Money Hosts:Great to be with you. Thank you.
2:29Joe Lavorgna:Why at least 100 basis points?
2:31Fast Money Hosts:Because if you look at core inflation from where it was before we attacked Iran, it's going to be up at least 100 basis points. So in simple, basic math, your real interest rate has collapsed 100. You'd want to offset that by raising the funds rate at least by that amount. And, of course, as you said at the highlight at the beginning of the show, these equity averages are at all-time highs. The credit spreads are super tight. The dollar is high, but not excessively high. There's no tightening of financial conditions, and the inflation numbers, the three - and six-month change show inflation moving up towards 4%.
3:06Fast Money Hosts:So what's going to force that back to 2 %? It won't happen magically.
3:12Joe Lavorgna:How urgent is your call for at least 100 basis points? In other words, if the Fed stands pat, which it might very well do for the next couple of meetings. Is that going to be a policy mistake looking in the rearview mirror?
3:24Fast Money Hosts:Maybe. It's hard to say because at some point you could make the argument that Kevin Warsh is going to make, which I understand, which is we're going to increase the supply side of the economy, shift that aggregate supply curve down and to the right. That will increase growth and lower inflation. That's a legitimate forecast. They could wait in the short term because market-based expectations, inflation expectations are contained, and you haven't seen an acceleration in wage growth. But, Melissa, if either of those two developments change, there's going to be tremendous pressure on the Fed to hike as soon as September.
3:56Fast Money Hosts:I think Kevin Walsh will do a very good job and will push back against it. But if the economy is growing reasonably well and inflation is moving further away from target, why wouldn't you be hiking? What happens to the bond market? By the way, Joe, I appreciate that. We've been talking about this on not 100 basis points, but the need for a hike instead of a cut. What happens to the bond market under the set of circumstances you're putting out there? I think it would be positive for the bond market. Won't be positive initially, Guy. I mean, we did price about a tightening and a half a few weeks ago, a week or so ago, when two-year notes got up to around four and a quarter.
4:29Fast Money Hosts:I mean, the curve will bear flat, and so your short rates will move higher than long rates. Long rates, maybe you could push back to 475, 480. I don't think they'll go to 5%. So the bond market will suffer. But, you know, the way the Fed will do it is they'll make sure there's a consensus. It'll be well telegraphed. The bond market, I think, will do reasonably OK. It won't be until the market thinks the Fed's done or they actually reverse course in ease that you see a big rally in rates. So, Joe, when you look at this, it's either inflation is either a demand pull or a cost push. Right. It could be both.
4:59Fast Money Hosts:So it could be both. Right. So it could be. So I sense that that's probably where you're at, that it is both. Actually, Anash, you don't think it is. And this is the problem because I was very much in the disinflationary boom camp on February 27th before the U.S. went into Iran. This is now really the economy is doing OK. You've got this inflation shock, which is going to play out, I think, a lot like post-COVID, where you've got not just energy costs, but fertilizer, nitrogen, helium, these other products. And it's a supply chain disruption. So it's not just the demand pull cost push, which is actually happening on the data center AI build out, which is pushing energy costs higher, but rather just the supply chains, the fragility of these supply chains likely to continue to push prices higher.
5:39Fast Money Hosts:You see it in a variety of survey data. That, to me, is what the market is missing. Joe, what do you think would happen, obviously, to the lower end of the K in terms of the consumer? Obviously, it would be hit on that, I would think. Secondly, what's the impact to the stock market? And the last part of that was what is Warsh's equation with shrinking the balance sheet versus raising rates? And how do you how do you view that? You see in the consumer confidence data, there's certainly a perception that there's significant distress and and the lower end household is suffering real wages. When I was there, we're accelerating and it looked like we were going to repeat a Trump one point.
6:11Fast Money Hosts:Now, at the moment, it's going the other way. I optimistic it will change at some point, but the low end is going to get squeezed. You know, on Kevin Warsh, you know, he's going to have to get a consensus of people. that are going to want to actually cut, or maybe that's the thought of cutting. And they've talked about trimming the balance sheet and then cutting. But the Fed gets into the mechanics of the balance sheet. The Fed is not going to cut the balance sheet. It's possible they could take some of the bank reserves and there's a shift into bills so they could say, OK, we've lowered the balance sheet.
6:43Fast Money Hosts:But the way the Fed operates monetary policy is just not going to happen. And Kevin Warsh think it would be good. And Kevin's a traditional institutionalist kind of person. He's not really a dove. And I look at when I talk to people, I think it was going to be more like a judicial nominee. We've got a long history of how he's voted, a long history of what he said. He's not going to just change to, I think, to appease the president. He's going to move based on the data and where he sees the economy. And by the way, now that Steve Myron's left, there's nobody there to argue for cuts. And nor should they, because that's not cutting.
7:14Fast Money Hosts:And there was a second point, but I missed the second. Stock market impact. Oh, the stock market. Right now, I mean, there's such a bulliance in the market and the AI spend. I just don't think rates are a factor. At some point, it will be if the economy slows or the earnings aren't met. But to me, it's just two parallel worlds. In fact, I'd argue the longer the stock market is robust, through the wealth effect and companies not having pressure necessarily to cut their costs and lay workers off, makes it more likely the Fed hikes, not lower. And the question is, OK, is it at least 100? Is it more?
7:44Fast Money Hosts:And then we could worry maybe the bond market does worse. But I don't see the market at the moment having a problem because nobody's deciding, well, I want to buy a certain basket of AI stocks versus buying the Treasury at 450. It's just a different universe of investors. Joe, let's say Fed hikes and growth does slow. OK, what sort of situation does the Fed find themselves in six months if you do have inflation sticking around despite the hikes? I mean, if we have some sort of sagflationary environment and you saw Q1 GDP, where it's track and that sort of thing, it's not above trend right now, if you think about it.
8:16Fast Money Hosts:And I'm just curious, like, how that shakes out. So this is so normal. So if the economy slows, if the unemployment rate starts to go up, that'll be a sign the Fed can stop tightening. Or if it just started to go up right now, they actually might ease. And I would be wrong. They might ease. But this is different because normally you have the demand pull cost push inflation. Economy is operating above its long term capacity. Inflation pressures build. And then the Fed reacts and has to hike and often hike too much. This is different. Economy is doing well. We have a supply shock. So we get the inflation not with a lot.
8:45Fast Money Hosts:We get it right now to these supply disruptions with energy and other energy sensitive commodities. So the question is, how much demand destruction is there? Given where oil is, you're not going to get much demand destruction. So you're going to get a small stagflationary environment. Let's say two percent GDP and a three and a four percent GDP deflator, which is not horrible. But if you're the Fed, you either change your target, you ignore and sort of talk around it, which is going to be hard because the Fed's tone has certainly shifted. or you actually try to take action to raise rates and slow things.
9:15Fast Money Hosts:And unfortunately, if we want to get really negative, how many times in the past has inflation fallen 1 % to 2 % to get to wherever the perceived target was? Generally doesn't happen unless there's a recession. So you've got to hope this AI bill actually delivers on the supply side. People think it might.
9:31Joe Lavorgna:Joe, great to speak with you. Thanks for coming by. Thank you. Joe Livornia. I'm going to pick it up from where Danny left in terms of, I think it was part two of your question or B, part three, subsector A, part one. What does the market do if the Fed does, in fact, hike?
9:47Fast Money Hosts:I think the market would be OK. I know it's somewhat counterintuitive, the same way I think the bond market would be OK. An acknowledgment that we have an inflation problem, and good for Joe for pointing it out, is something the market probably needs to hear and wants to hear. I think a rate cut, counterintuitively, would be bad for the market. I think a rate cut would be bad for the bond market as well. If there was a projected 100 basis point increase over the next year, the stock market would not do well. It's not they can't it would not price that in well, in my opinion. It's not ready for that.
10:14Fast Money Hosts:And so I think that would be a shock to the system. Yeah, I mean, we had a Fed funds at five and a half percent. Stock market was doing just fine. You know, and when you think about this, I mean, the stock market's doing just fine with crude oil at 90, 100. It was doing just fine when it was 115, you know, three weeks ago. And I think a lot of what Joe's talking about, like the continued demand and what the upward pressure of this AI infrastructure bill means. I mean, it's really the growth that we're seeing from there as a component of the GDP is outstripping that of a consumer right now. So I think his point is, and we didn't even talk about it.
10:44Fast Money Hosts:We haven't talked about it in a while, actually, the labor market. And, you know, and it seems to have stabilized. We had some weird prints in, you know, late last year into this year. And maybe some of that was affected by the government shutdown and the like here. But it seems like the labor market's OK, right? And so, like, at the end of the day, other than some of the crazy action we are seeing in a sector like SEMIs, up 85 percent in less than two months. And then seeing, like, the names that we're seeing, you know, Snowflake up 35 percent. Dell is all-time high, up 20 percent. I mean, this is not really normal action.
11:15Fast Money Hosts:I know it feels bullish. I know if you're long these stocks, it feels great. But I can't think of anything more bearish, like if we're going to look out a year or so to see this sort of price action, because throughout all of our careers, this has never ended well. And the point is, where does it turn? Nobody knows. But one thing we do know about a lot of people who are self-directed or active. Are we going right into final trades? No. Self-directed, self-directed. What I'm saying is we know that a lot of folks make really bad decisions, you know, when stocks like I think the word that Joe used was a bullion, a bullion, you know, that sort of thing.
11:52Fast Money Hosts:Yeah. And then they and then they average down because, oh, hey, the infrastructure is still going. Like we got to keep buying this. What does what does just to get back to the rates issue? What does raising rates by 100 basis points? Does that produce more oil? Does that open up the Hormuz straight? The only thing to Danny's point is it hurts the lower portion of the K. So the people that live on credit, us around this table, it's going to be an inconvenience. And in order to even think about 100 basis points, inflation would have to really be embedded in showing it. And if that were to be the case, then again, I think we have another whole slew of problems that would exist as a result of that.
12:28Fast Money Hosts:You know, we had an inverted yield curve for a long time. So a hike in rates would definitely move the front end up, obviously. I don't think it necessarily would do anything to the back end. And it's the back end where we need to be concerned about because that's where housing is priced and all those different things. So I know it's somewhat counterintuitive and you can't look into the future and try to do the counterfactual thing. But I think core heads would prevail and say, you know what, actually, they're on to something here. A rate hike is actually probably what we need, not a rate cut.
12:53Joe Lavorgna:All right, let's get now to the earnings alert on Dell. Those shares are surging in the after our session. They're up 22 percent. The computer and server company trouncing estimates for its latest quarter, posting its fastest sales growth since returning to the market in 2018. Driven by demand for AI servers, shares already closed a regular session. at a record after announcing it had secured a nearly$10 billion software deal with the Pentagon last night. The broader software space also seeing some strength today. IGV ETF jumping almost 3%, marking its highest close in four months. The group now up 30 % from its April lows.
13:26Joe Lavorgna:Snowflake, one of the big movers. That was up 36 % in its best day since going public in 2020. The cloud company beating earnings expectations thanks to growing enterprise AI demand and an expanded partnership with AWS. You're just saying this is not normal and it is actually bearish.
13:43Fast Money Hosts:Well, I think it is bearish. I mean, like when you think about some of these moves, we talked a lot about Micron. You talked about these huge beats, these huge rates. This is what just happened with Dell. But the stocks have continued to run in a lot of the multiples. You could say we're in a bubble. Multiples don't matter, you know, that sort of thing. And that is true because that's happening right before our eyes. But at some point, you know, you have 85 percent growth, whether it was in NVIDIA, whether it was in Micron, whether it was here this quarter, you know, I mean, in earnings growth, it is truly, truly astounding.
14:10Fast Money Hosts:But at what point do you pull forward a lot of that? At what point if these companies and just look at these charts on a one, two year basis, if they did not have the visibility in the midst of hundreds of billions of dollars of AI infrastructure spent by all the hyperscalers in 23, 24 into 25, they didn't have the visibility to actually start adding capacity. And this goes with all the components and the servers and all that sort of stuff, then why would you trust them now, given what we know, if it's an absolute free-for-all because there is an issue about capacity right out there? Why would you trust them that this could continue to go this way?
14:46Fast Money Hosts:The notion that you could keep beating like this and raising, well, at some point it's got to stop and then it goes the opposite way. And you could say that NVIDIA is different because it's not a cyclical business. They've had ups and downs, product cycles and this, and they've missed some and they've gotten in front of others, but it's not the same with memory and storage.
15:03Joe Lavorgna:I get that idea. I get that when it comes to memory and chips. When it comes to a software name that's being re-rated, you can't make that same argument, can you? It doesn't have to add capacity. Nobody saw the rise of agents, which is, you know, what is powering, for instance, Octahire in the after-hours session. I mean, all of this stuff sort of came from around the corner, and here we are. Right, so re-rating.
15:24Fast Money Hosts:No, listen, and I think Dell, first of all, if Karen were here, she's not. She's at the women's event, which is fantastic going on now. Upstairs here. A wealth for women, yes.
15:33Joe Lavorgna:Number one.
15:33Fast Money Hosts:Number two, I mean, she's been on Dell forever. She'd sold some calls against it, which I'm sure are getting called away now. But I think her point was valuation was compelling. And at$300, it was trading at 20 times. It was compelling. Here at$400, it's a little bit different. But that quarter is remarkable. And the operating margin beat was significant. So good for Dell. All right. I'm sorry. I know you all want to talk. And we're going to get to the final trade, Steve. You're going to have your third. It's more important. You're going to have your third. Danny and I are enjoying listening to that.
15:58Fast Money Hosts:You're going to have 30 seconds of the final trade. Here's an article that just hits in the FT. This is the last hour. This is a company that runs one of the biggest public clouds. It actually does. Amazon scraps AI leaderboard to stop workers chasing usage scores. Senior executives tell staff, don't use AI just for the sake of using AI as costs rise. So these are the largest cloud providers. These companies just raised their cap backs literally 85 percent on their calls that we heard back in April. And this is what they are saying.
16:31Joe Lavorgna:But are you saying that that is true across corporate America? That companies are using AI for the sake of using AI?
Read the full transcript
16:37Fast Money Hosts:Did you hear what Uber just said the other day? Their COO said, we burned through our entire 2026 budget for tokens in the first quarter. Step back. These are tech companies. But if you look at Snowflake, if you look at that chart, completely different to Guy's point of what Dell's chart looks like. So if you go back in November 2025, it's a 277 stock. Trades down to 110 by April of this year. Now it's spiking higher. Only up 9 % year to date. Net retention, net revenue retention rate is 126%. That means that if they don't get another account, they're up 26 % on that revenue. So the bar is pretty low as they're setting forward.
17:22Fast Money Hosts:I'd be a buyer there, a seller at Dell. Software stocks were left for dead for most of the year. So this is a catch-up trade to a degree, whether people were short on covering it. Dell and these other companies, you can't take current earnings and project it into the future. It's a catch-up trade. My problem is this. Was it that misunderwritten by the dozens of analysts that follow it? Yes, it's a surprise beat, and it's just a catch-up trade. And I think fund managers can't afford to not be there at certain times. So you see this chase go on. I don't know how long it's going to last, but I'm in the camp that you'll probably pull in from you.
17:51Fast Money Hosts:Real quick to Danny's point. I mean, the average price target, according to FactSet, for Dell, with the 29 analysts that cover it, is$228. Look where it's trading right now. So the analyst community has been behind the eight ball. That question quickly about software. You know, I'm wrong all the time. One thing we've gotten right, though, is software. And pull up an IGV chart. It traded down to last March's low. Just did that a few about a month, month and a half ago. We said it should hold. It has. We thought the 200 moving day average was in play, 98. and here we are. So I still think IGV has some legs to it.
18:21Fast Money Hosts:Snowflake revenue is growing 30 % year over year. Their earnings are growing fine off a very low base. They're growing, you know, fine. I'll give them 40 % or something like that. The stock trades at 126 times this year, 92 times next. So you have a choice. And, you know, Steve just gave you some levels here. You know, it was on the balls of its you-know-what. And, you know, here it is. It has a big run. There's a short interest. People are looking for broadening out of this theme. You can only buy so much micron. You know what I mean? You can only buy so much of this stuff. So, again, this goes back to to me.
18:49Fast Money Hosts:I think this is very bearish activity. You could say, well, you're fighting this and you've been fighting it for a while. But have a ball here. Chase these things up 200 percent in three months.
18:58Joe Lavorgna:We'll have much more on Dell and the move, the big move that we're seeing after hours later in this show. But let's turn now to Anthropic announcing a new round of funding, which helps it pass rival OpenAI as the most valuable AI startup. CNBC's Kate Rooney has the details there. Kate. Hey, Melissa. So Anthropik, as you mentioned, the most valuable AI company, at least in private markets. That's after announcing a$65 billion round this afternoon. Anthropik's valuation now climbing to$965 billion. That is more than double, almost triple its last valuation. And importantly, if you look at these two rival, OpenAI, it puts it above that company that it competes with aggressively.
19:36Joe Lavorgna:That had been the most valuable on paper at$850 billion, roughly. Anthropics CFO Krishna Routadeh saying that the funding will help serve what they called historic demand that they are seeing. The main source of that demand is from Claude Code, Anthropics Buzzy AI Coding Assistant. The company, for the first time, also announcing its annual revenue run rate is$47 billion. That reflects companies last month of what they say is consumption-based revenue plus recurring monthly subscription revenue. Annualized that out for about a year. And then the number that we heard earlier from the company earlier in the year, around April, was$30 billion.
20:11Joe Lavorgna:So that speaks to some of the growth. If you also look at total annual revenue for last year, Anthropic reported closer to$10 billion. The company has been on a deal spree as well to try to get more compute capacity to keep up with this growth. Recently partnered with Amazon, you had the Google Broadcom deal, and XAI and SpaceX. Anthropic is one of these late-stage companies on deck that we do expect to go public, now nearing a trillion-dollar valuation. But we've also reported OpenAI could be listing sooner, closer to September. Mel, back to you. All right, Kate, thanks. Kate Rooney, what do you make of this chase here?
20:42Joe Lavorgna:I mean, it's amazing that even as a private company can still fundraise just before the IPO.
20:47Fast Money Hosts:It's actually part of the reason public companies are trading higher, because you can't really, you can trade these if you can find it. I think Anthropic, obviously, is in a better seat right now. But to Dan's point, if you really stop to do the math at the end of the day, what are the levels that you need to charge per month? No one wants to do that math, whether it's enterprise or retail, whatever it's going to be, to justify all of this. But right now, no one's asking that question, which is fine. It's game on. And I know Anthropic technically maybe had a profitable cash flow second quarter because timing of spend.
21:16Fast Money Hosts:Of course, take out stock-based comp. But listen, it's Wall Street. You're not going to hear it from Wall Street because you're getting massive IPO fees when these things come public. Yeah, I think there's going to be a massive – you have to get money from someplace, right? So you have to there's probably going to be a hole in the mag seven stocks to make room for these three. Having said that, the indices is what screws me up a little bit because there's going to be to be forced buying there, which adds to those mag seven names as well. But I think I wouldn't be a buyer of mag seven names ahead of these three IPOs.
21:49Joe Lavorgna:So they're the ATM.
21:50Fast Money Hosts:They're going to be the ATM. They have to be. They're the only ones with enough money. NASDAQ wins. And, you know, the stocks at ninety one dollars or wherever close it is too cheap. I think the market's going to slowly figure that out. But if you want to be one place, it's NDAQ. You can be cynical and say this change to usage-based consumption is basically an effort to kind of juice revenues into these IPOs, right? But I think you said probably the smartest thing on the desk all night today, Mel. Always.
22:16Joe Lavorgna:Just tonight.
22:19Fast Money Hosts:Just the awareness or the experience that people are having with agents right now. And I don't think a lot of companies are having that just yet. But I think a lot of folks that are building within some companies, like a lot in the private space, to be frank with you, that has flipped the switch. There's no doubt about that. But again, it comes back to are these agents doing the thing that you want to do for the cost that you expect? And are you going to have your customers or the processes internally going to justify all the effort that it's going to do it? And now it's really expensive. Like, you know, a year ago, much less expensive.
22:52Joe Lavorgna:But the cost will come down.
22:53Fast Money Hosts:Well, because the costs are going up. Token prices have actually exploded. And that was one of the actually the bear cases about this whole space last year is that token prices were falling fairly dramatically. And then the whole idea is they fall. Then you get more consumption. And then, you know, you get a bigger pie, that sort of thing. Over time. But what did we just say? The thing in the. See, now it's not as, you know, I'm just kidding. But what I'm saying is, like, what is the FT article just say? Like, you know, Amazon's telling them. Right now it is expensive.
23:21Joe Lavorgna:There are bottlenecks all over the place. Right.
23:23Fast Money Hosts:I was just in my friend's office, and four of his employees are now using Anthropic. And it's$400 per month. It was$200. It's now$400 per month. He fully expects it to go to$2 ,000 per month, potentially. If it integrates that much into his business and helps him, he probably will end up paying that. Obviously, that's going to come at cost of employment. That's a whole other conversation. He was an early bull in Amazon, an Amazon-related company. So he understands Amazon Prime didn't exist when Amazon first came on the scene. So you've got to figure out a pricing mechanism. But I think the proof right now is on the bears to say that this isn't going to work when this thing is in the first inning of applications that are out there.
23:59Fast Money Hosts:And I'm probably the wrong guy to talk about it, but just an observation.
24:02Joe Lavorgna:Coming up, a big bet on Caesars Entertainment. Can a deal with Tillman Fertitta's entertainment group helped the company turn things around after a rough couple of years? We'll debate that. But first, Costco reported its earnings after the bell. What the numbers tell us about the consumer that is next. Don't go anywhere fast when he's back in two.
24:20Fast Money Hosts:This is Fast Money with Melissa Lee right here on CNBC.
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26:01Joe Lavorgna:Welcome back to Fast Money. Some big moves in the retail space catching our eyes. First, let's turn to Best Buy. It's up nearly 16 percent. It's best day since March 2020. The electronics retailer reporting better than expected results this morning. and comp sales growth of 2%. Gaming, computing, mobile phones and services seeing the most strength. Dollar tree in time soaring more than 17 % after a huge beat on earnings. The company also announcing an on-demand delivery partnership with DoorDash and coal surging 20 % on its best comp sales performance in four years. The company reported a narrower than expected loss, reaffirmed its full year outlook.
26:36Joe Lavorgna:Shares are still down 25 % this year. Guy, you're going to go to dollar?
26:39Fast Money Hosts:Yeah, Dollar Tree was, listen, we got blind luck last night, but we talked about the dollar stores. The sell-off was just too much in a short period of time, and they looked interesting. So last night, Dollar Gen, Dollar Tree, this quarter is very good. It augurs well for Dollar Gen on June 2nd, but I think the sell-off in these names has been overdone. I think that DLTR quarter suggests exactly that. It's interesting that we see such huge moves. Like software, consumer discretionary, underweighted. And so it's a catch-up trade, but I don't know how long that's going to last either. Yeah, and when you look at these, they trade them as a group.
27:09Fast Money Hosts:So you're either buying Dollar Tree, selling Dollar Gen. You don't buy them both at the same time. If you look at it on a chart, obviously the Dollar Tree just spikes here. The performance is a little bit better, but this one has been plagued. You had that family dollar spinoff or get rid of. They paid for family dollar$9 billion. They sold it for a billion. So for them, it's just get that thing off my back and let me move forward. That's the place to be.
27:33Joe Lavorgna:All right. Meantime, Costco just out with its third quarter results. Shares are not moving much after the big box store beat revenue estimates in person, an almost 10 percent gain in same-store sales from a year ago. Conference call kicked off at the top of the hour. CNBC's Brandon Gomez has the results, joins us here on set. What's the latest, Brandon?
27:49Fast Money Hosts:Hey, Melissa. Yeah, that's right. I was listening in on the call. Look, investors were watching membership trends closely. A key driver for profits. Paid memberships grew just over 4 percent in the quarter, below what some investors were hoping for, with expectations for a return to mid to high single-digit growth. A CEO saying on the call just now, Fuel is driving membership gains, with some locations requiring multiple fuel deliveries daily. At the same time, digital sales surge up nearly 21 percent, while traffic at Costco's website and app jumped 37 percent. And we know from the company that online shoppers skew younger and are historically less likely to renew memberships.
28:21Fast Money Hosts:And so it will be important to get some color around membership retention on the call. Also, tariffs, important to mention with Costco, saying they remain committed to returning money to members. But how much and when is going to depend on lawsuit developments and when they actually are able to process the refunds.
28:38Joe Lavorgna:Do you think that we'll get any color as to, you know, whether members are just ordering? I mean, if they're if they're if they're consumers who are ordering online are basically just trying to avoid that trip, avoid driving to the store.
28:51Fast Money Hosts:It will be interesting to see if they're if we can even get some third party credit card data. Right. And see if there's demographic profiles of who actually is conducting those online transactions.
28:59Joe Lavorgna:It has that change.
28:59Fast Money Hosts:What's interesting also, and some of the categories that did show the greatest strength were not grocery, which was really interesting, right? Jewelry, pharmacy as well this quarter. So it's an interesting conversation to have about what actually is driving the consumer to Costco.
29:14Joe Lavorgna:All right. Brandon, thank you. Brandon Gomez.
29:17Fast Money Hosts:Brandon's mom watches. I want to say hi to her. She's a big fan of her son and of Fast Money, number one. Number two, the quarter's fine, but not good enough when you're trading a 45 times next year's numbers, which I think why the move is sort of mitigated here and probably will still go lower. Margins were somewhat disappointing. Listen, it's a great franchise. It's a great company. It's a big valuation. A similar thing happened to Walmart a week and a half or so ago. Yeah, it does. The valuation is the key problem here. Membership renewal rates are around 90 percent. So when he's talking about the younger kids don't, kids, the younger people demographic don't renew the same rate as we do, that could be a problem going forward.
29:59Fast Money Hosts:Digital is where they're really making their bread and butter. I always compare these to Sam's. And I know you don't get that pull out with Sam's, but you have you have Walmart. Do you know they have basically the same footprint, same amount of stores? Costco out revenue paces by two times, 2x, by the same amount of stores. They earn double the revenue per store.
30:20Joe Lavorgna:Wow.
30:21Fast Money Hosts:Being left out of the AI trade. Just take some underperforming stores and convert them into some type of data center. Stock will be up 35 % after the close. Is anyone listening to that? That is genius, Danny. Great idea. So obviously, just kidding. Take all the stores and convert them. Data center, yeah.
30:35Joe Lavorgna:All right. There's a lot more fast money to come. Here's what's coming up next.
30:39Fast Money Hosts:All in on Caesars. Tillman Fertitta's entertainment company placing its bets on the casino name. What it could mean for the gaming industry. Next. Plus, eye-popping auto loan numbers as consumers feel the squeeze from high prices on the lot. What's driving the move higher? You're watching Fast Money, live from the NASDAQ market site in Times Square. We're back right after this.
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32:11Fast Money Hosts:the wrongs we must right the fights we must win the future we must secure together for our nation this is what's in front of us this determines what's next for all of us we are marines We were made for this.
33:04Joe Lavorgna:since. Danny, what do you make of this?
33:05Fast Money Hosts:It's good for Las Vegas, I think, to consolidate. You can go to a Rockets game now, eat at Landry's, and then fly to Vegas and go to Caesars Palace. I think it's great. In a package, probably. I think this was the only likely buyer, somebody that could actually make these synergies work. It's interesting. I mean, he was in Wynn for a while, right, if you remember, did very well there. So he's the guy, and Danny's probably right. But what does it say about his confidence in not only the economy, but obviously the industry? I think it speaks volumes. So I think Wynn is still to play here, despite the fact that it's sold off over the last month, month and a half.
33:37Joe Lavorgna:Coming up, we've got our eyes on Dell surging after hours. The company's conference call just wrapping up. We'll hear from one top analyst about what is behind this move.
33:52Joe Lavorgna:Welcome back to Fast Money. Stocks hitting fresh record closes today as investors cling to hopes for an Iran peace deal. The Nasdaq jumping nearly a percent as it closes in on 27 ,000. The S &P gaining more than half a percent. The Dow eking out a small gain. And a couple after-hours earnings reports that we have tonight. Gap and American Eagle both higher after their reports. More strength in the software space with MongoDB and Asana jumping as well. Another quick check on Dell. It is now surging, still surging, I should say, more than 20 percent after its big earnings and revenue beats. For more, let's bring in Medhi Hosseini, Senior Equity Research Analyst at Susquehanna.
34:27Joe Lavorgna:He just got off the Dell call. Medhi, great to have you with us.
34:30Fast Money Hosts:Thanks for being on the program.
34:33Joe Lavorgna:Based on the earnings report, what should Dell be worth right now? We're just trying to get our heads around what it should be valued at, given what the earnings outlook is at this point.
34:46Fast Money Hosts:I'll make a lot of stories short. If you look at their margin trend, which has been in the high single digit, their free cash flow margin, I think this is a company that will be worth three times enterprise value to sell. I wouldn't be so focused on PE multiple, but it is the enterprise value, especially given their depth. And to that extent, a three-time enterprise value to sell will be appropriate. I think the other factor is their ability to preserve their high single-digit margin profile. If you look at one of the key competitors like Supermicro, in addition to all the investigation, the company cannot get the margins much above the single digit.
35:29Fast Money Hosts:But Dell is having a high single digit margin profile. At the same time, they're also generating a lot of cash. They have a little bit over$3 billion of a free cash flow for the April quarter. Just help me understand that. So on the gross margin, you're seeing it come down over the last few years, right? So two years ago, they had like a 24 percent gross margin and they just printed 18. And when you see that sort of turn on margin, but you're seeing these huge gains as far as orders. I mean, isn't that something that you want to pay attention to? And you just mentioned Supermicro. I mean, they have half the margin.
36:02Fast Money Hosts:Forget the investigation. I mean, at some point, you know, if your capacity constraints, Supermicro is going to start competing on price. So I just wonder, like, at some point, don't you have to anticipate a turn? because if they're not getting those margins up, they're just taking, I guess, more share because of demand. I'm just trying to figure it out because it just seems like something is a big disconnect there. Well, Superbarger has been trying to compete on pricing for several years. That hasn't worked. When you look under the hood as it relates to Dell, there is a mix that is a big factor.
36:36Fast Money Hosts:They do have services, which is actually a 40 percent plus gross margin. They also have other items like storage, which is also gross margin accretive. So it is the mix that has enabled Dell to preserve margin. And on top of that, as I highlighted, is the free cash flow margin. I'm actually very surprised. I thought by now their margins would be under pressure. And this is one of the primary reasons that I have a neutral rating, despite the fact that the stock has run up so much. So the ability to preserve margin and print cash flow. If you look at the broader spectrum, this is another 30, 40, 50, 60 times PE multiple.
37:17Fast Money Hosts:And to that extent, it is a three-time enterprise value that is very relevant to daily discovered margin profile and pre-cash flow margins. All right. So what does three times enterprise value get you for the home gamers out there that probably don't have the machine in front of them? I mean, the average price target we mentioned earlier in the show from analysts, the 29 to cover it is basically around up$230. I think it's trading$4.10 now in the aftermarket. Well, I'm not going to answer that question now because all the estimates are under review. Perhaps we could have this conversation tomorrow when my note is published with updated estimate.
37:51Fast Money Hosts:But I think if you look at their fiscal year guide, it's going up. Now, what is interesting, if you look at the second half of fiscal year, the revenue guide suggests 10 % to 12 % decline. So does that mean some of these revenues that cannot get the component are going to be pushed out into next fiscal year or 2027? Or are they going to walk away? I think the more I hear of management talking, I think some of these revenues are pushed into the next year, which suggests that the revenue and the free cash flow growth are sustainable into next year.
38:30Joe Lavorgna:What's the read through to some of the other stocks in your coverage universe? at this point? Well, we go back to memory.
38:38Fast Money Hosts:Jeff, the CEO, highlighted the shortage is more severe for Dirham and Dan. I think over the past couple of days, we have talked about what you guys have been talking about, Micron joining the$3 trillion market cap. I think those market caps will go higher. And a conference call suggests that this shortage in memory and components are not going to go away. So definitely positive for Micron, SanDisk, and even hard disk drives.
39:09Joe Lavorgna:All right. Mehdi, thank you for joining us. Appreciate it. Mehdi Hosseini on Dell. So it just reinforces the area of the market. That's already going bonkers. Right, exactly. This, again, I'll say this carefully.
39:24Fast Money Hosts:I mean, this should have been somewhat predictable. If you remember, Michael Dell made the big investment in the Trump accounts thing, And then they recently got the six billion dollar government contract from the Pentagon. So it all becomes very circular. I only mentioned the context of what happened with Intel, what's happened with MP. I mean, there's a slew of he mentioned Micron on Friday in Westchester and Rockland County. Go buy Dell. He even said go buy Dell. So maybe we should start listening a little closer. So if you look at certain services, it's 20 percent of total revenue, but it's also a very high margin business.
39:56Fast Money Hosts:So they get that check in that box. If you look at data centers, that's 66 percent of their revenue base, but 37 percent comes from AI. They're in all the right spots, all the right margin. I don't want to buy it here. I don't want to chase it here. But it keeps defying the laws of probability. I worked with Matty in the past. He's a great analyst. But I'm going to bet that he doesn't downgrade the stock tomorrow, that he raises his price target. Guy, what do you think?
40:22Joe Lavorgna:No one's going to downgrade the stock right now. I'm just saying it out there. Seriously.
40:26Fast Money Hosts:At some point, you know, if you're talking about memory and storage and all the components that go into servers, right, and you're talking about the demand and the lack of capacity and they have this pricing power, at some point it's going to weigh on the margins. And that's what we just talked about a little bit. I mean, Dell's margins have been declining on a gross margin basis. So at some point, let's say you free up more capacity, well, then you've already out-earned that. And then it just kind of starts to turn and there's going to be less demand at some point. So to me, I just think if you're chasing this.
40:54Joe Lavorgna:So coming up, Ford and GM continuing their move higher as auto loans hit eye-popping numbers. But how long can a stretched consumer keep paying? The details right after this.
41:29Joe Lavorgna:Welcome back to Fast Money. New data out today shows the average monthly auto loan payment is at all-time highs as car prices continue to climb. CNBC's Phil Lebeau has more on what people are buying. Phil?
41:42Fast Money Hosts:What they're buying, and many people are paying more than$1 ,000 every month for their auto loan. And of those loans, you'll be surprised to hear what those people are buying. But first, let me show you what the overall numbers are in terms of record highs, both in terms of amount borrowed, just under$44 ,000. And then your average monthly loan payment is now at an all-time high of$770, according to Experian Automotive. In terms of people paying at least$1 ,000 or more per month, look at how that has exploded over the last five years. The chip crisis in 21 and 22 meant you saw a big spike in transaction prices for new vehicles.
42:21Fast Money Hosts:That's when the surge happened and people said, OK, I'll pay more than$1 ,000 a month. Now almost 19 % of the market. And what are they buying? Surprise! It's not necessarily luxury. In fact, luxury is just a quarter of the vehicles that are sold, essentially. Everything else, pickups, midsize SUVs, full-size SUVs, not from luxury names, But these are vehicles that are starting at 55, 60 or 65. And people are saying, OK, I've got to have them and I'm going to outfit them with what I want. Some of that may be small contractors or small business owners who are using it and then writing off the expense.
42:56Fast Money Hosts:But there are a lot of people who are they've made the decision for their own personal use. They're going to be doing this. As you take a look at GM, Ford and Toyota. Keep in mind that next week, Melissa, we get the May auto sales expected to be between 15.9 and 16.1 million for a sales pace.
43:11Joe Lavorgna:At this point, Phil, are automakers offering incentive loans at all? They are.
43:18Fast Money Hosts:They are, but it's not a huge spike. It's actually lower than what it traditionally is. It's gone up a little bit in the last year and a half, but it's not outrageous relative to what we have seen in the past. Wow.
43:33Joe Lavorgna:I mean, this number is, aside from maintenance, aside from gas, aside from insurance, which has gone up, right, Phil? Yeah.
43:42Fast Money Hosts:Insurance is a ridiculous number. I mean, Phil's still here. I don't know if he wants to comment or not, but auto loan delinquency rates now are at a 32-year high. You throw on credit cards, 90 days plus delinquent, 13%. It's the highest we've seen since 2011. So your story suggests that people are doing great, Phil. The numbers suggest otherwise. Well, but keep in mind when you're looking at delinquencies, and that's not to say it's not important for the people or the segment of the population that are delinquent. But we talked with Experian about this. It tends to be with the subprime borrower.
44:14Fast Money Hosts:Those are the people who are struggling. And in the world of credit portfolios, if you're going to have a rising delinquency rate, you want it on the subprime end relative to whether you have prime or the super prime credit. That's where they really get worried when it's those borrowers who are really in default.
44:34Joe Lavorgna:Right. Phil, thank you. Fascinating story. Phil LeBeau.
44:37Fast Money Hosts:And what happens if we raise rates by 100 basis points? What happens to that subprime borrower? And Capital One, just to bring it back to the stock market, Capital One is the largest lender of subprime loans. Ally or Allie is the largest car loan company. So take a look at those two. Obviously, when I hear the word subprime, I know. I'm like, we've got to go to Danny Moses. And it goes up. And Guy's right. I think we're 5.6 % overall, 90-day payments being late. And that was last quarter. I think it goes higher because of oil. And auto companies, better lucky than good, in some case, got smart post tariffs and started to basically reduce what they were offering, getting out of some of the electric vehicles, stuff like that.
45:17Fast Money Hosts:So I think it's the right place, right time for the auto companies.
45:20Joe Lavorgna:Coming up, Bitcoin bumming out the crypto space. why this trade is sitting out the rally. Next, more Fast Money in Tune.
45:32Joe Lavorgna:We've got a news alert on a federal probe into LinkedIn co-founder Reid Hoffman. Julia Borson's got the details. Julia. Well, the MSNOW is reporting that a probe based in a federal prosecutor's office in Chicago has been described as investigating Gene Carroll, but is currently focused on Reid Hoffman and considering some possible charges of money laundering connected to his financial support towards Carroll's legal fees. This, according to two people familiar with the matter. Hoffman is the co-founder of LinkedIn, a top Democratic donor and fundraiser, and a frequent critic of President Trump.
46:04Joe Lavorgna:Back over to you. Julia, thank you. Julia Borsten. All right, let's get to Bitcoin hitting its lowest level since April 13th today. While the crypto did close off session lows, it is now down more than 5 percent over the past week. I flagged this earlier today.
46:17Fast Money Hosts:Yeah, because it hasn't been trading well in the wake of the Nasdaq trading extraordinarily well. And I thought the two is sort of go hand in hand. But something's got to give here. Bitcoin is telling one story. The Nasdaq and Semi's are telling something entirely different. Something's got to give. I think it's going to be the stock market.
46:32Joe Lavorgna:Up next, final trades.
46:42Joe Lavorgna:One last check on shares of Dell up by 31 percent, beating earnings and revenue estimates for the current quarter. Also raising dramatically its full year estimates. If the move holds tomorrow, it will be the second biggest gain since returning to market. This is on top of, of course, tripling year to date. What a move. Final trade time. Steve.
47:00Fast Money Hosts:I was long Boeing. Then I wasn't long Boeing. Now I'm long Boeing again. It took a little bit of a speed bump on the Trump sheet meetings. It's back on track now. Danny Moses. Apologies to my friend Vincent Daniel. I'm a seller of Jets, the airline ETF. And let me just say that I think Vincent Daniel should be the next general manager of the New York Mets. They need something.
47:20Joe Lavorgna:Hi, Vinny. Dan.
47:21Fast Money Hosts:I'd go big short on that one. So this Palantir, we're talking about all this stuff that's gone crazy. This was obviously a darling. This is a company that's expected to have 95 % earnings growth, 75 % sales growth this year, 86 % gross margins. They've been going higher. It's still down 20 % of the year after a big day. I think you'll probably start kicking the tires on that one. I'm with Danny. Stevie Cohen's a big fan of the show. Stevie, pay attention. Benny Daniels, your guy, brilliant. See you later, Mel.
47:47Joe Lavorgna:All right. Thanks for watching Fast Money. Mad Money with Jim Kramer starts right now. All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet, or another medium.
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From the publisher
A post-earnings pop in Snowflake sends the software ETF to its highest level since late January, but can the rally keep its momentum? Plus Joe Lavorgna, a one-time advisor to the Trump administration is calling for 100bp of rate hikes this year. He lays out his reasoning.
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