SpaceX Impact On The Rest Of Techy… And Will the Crypto Winter Thaw? 6/16/26

16 Jun 2026 · 44 min · 19 chapters

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In short

Fast Money episode focuses on whether SpaceX’s IPO-era surge is driving broader tech moves, plus macro/geopolitics (Iran/G7, oil), Fed expectations, industrials, memory stocks, and crypto trading mechanics.

Guests

Anthony Scaramucci (Skybridge Capital founder/partner; long-time Bitcoin investor; pro-perpetual futures supporter) and Subhajra Rajapa (Associate General Head of Research; expects neutral Fed stance/no rate cuts for the rest of the year).

Key claims

SpaceX’s rally is attributed more to index-inclusion “mechanical buyers” and limited float than fundamentals; volatility may rise after the lockup ends (Aug 11). Semis/memory show “cracks” (Micron reversal; IGV down 10 of 11). G7 Iran framework reopens Strait of Hormuz but hard nuclear details are deferred 60 days; oil falls toward the 200-day MA. Fed likely holds rates; market fears one hike. Caterpillar/United Rentals benefit from AI-adjacent capex but valuation risk. Memory stocks are cyclical; upside depends on capex not slipping. Scaramucci argues perpetual futures should be regulated, not banned; Bitcoin follows a four-year cycle with a late-2026/early-2027 rally, potentially to ~$10T if crypto legislation (Clarity Act) passes.

Notable examples

Salesforce buying an AI customer-service agent for $3.6B; SpaceX options opening with extreme implied volatility; popular SpaceX call/put strikes; CFTC defending perpetual futures approval.

Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.

Chapters

Tap a time to open that second in VO

SpaceX's Market Impact

0:00 to 0:22

Discussion on SpaceX's stock performance and its effects on tech stocks.

“Mazda has been named Consumer Reports' safest new car brand.”

SpaceX's Market Impact

1:45 to 3:38

Discussion on SpaceX's stock performance and its effects on tech stocks.

“Shares have been up as much as 17 percent at session highs, but late-day selling brings shares back to Earth, closing up just 5 percent.”

Tech Stocks Under Pressure

3:38 to 6:04

Analyzing the pressure on tech stocks and the implications for investors.

“But at some point, you have to ask yourself, what are discounts?”

Market Volatility Insights

6:04 to 7:40

Insights into market volatility and factors influencing stock prices.

“So what I thought was sort of interesting was that oil is telling you the Iran conflict is over.”

Company Acquisitions in the Market

7:40 to 9:58

Discussion about recent company acquisitions and market dynamics.

“I thought to me that I do think we're going to have more volatility to come because I do think the Iran thing isn't settled yet.”

Oil Market Trends

9:58 to 14:01

Insights into the oil market and its impact on the economy.

“Then we can start having a conversation.”

Impact of Oil Prices on Consumer Stocks

14:01 to 19:23

Discussion on how current oil prices affect consumer stocks and market sentiment.

“particularly in response to the drop in oil prices, which actually the drop started back in May and like mid-May.”

Analyzing Fed's Potential Policies

19:34 to 21:18

Discussion on the potential policies of the new Fed Chairman amidst changing economic conditions.

“Coming up, Caterpillar keeps climbing the fresh record high for the equipment giant in the next move for the industrial sector.”

Caterpillar's Performance and Market Trends

22:07 to 25:18

Discussion on Caterpillar's rising stock prices and its implications on the industrial sector.

“So that's the expiration for the story then.”

Memory Stocks and Market Reversals

25:19 to 28:01

Analysis of the volatility and performance of memory stocks amidst changing market conditions.

“At Venture Global, we think about what can be done, not what's usually done.”
Show all 19 chapters

Market Dynamics: Memory Chip and Crypto Trends

28:01 to 28:58

Discussion on the implications of memory chip market trends and the upcoming discussions on crypto.

“So the Seagate and the Western Digital is being more sort of dangerous at this point in terms of the run, because they are going to add capacity and prices are going to drop.”

The Case for Perpetual Futures in Crypto

29:13 to 35:45

Anthony Scaramucci discusses the benefits and implications of perpetual futures in the cryptocurrency market.

“closing at a record high, the S &P falling half a percent, the Nasdaq dropping more than a percent.”

Bitcoin's Future: Market Cycles and Predictions

35:45 to 39:54

Exploration of Bitcoin's market cycles, potential for growth, and external factors impacting its value.

“And, guys, it's coming whether we like it or not.”

Impacts of Legislation on Bitcoin and Crypto Innovation

39:54 to 42:00

Discussion on the Clarity Act and its potential influence on Bitcoin's adoption and market innovation.

“But when we started Fast Money, the computers didn't look like this, right?”

Discussion on SpaceX Stock Performance

42:00 to 42:46

The hosts discuss the implications of SpaceX's stock trading and upcoming options.

“So I think that's the rate limiting step.”

Insights from the Options Pit

42:46 to 44:16

Oliver Rennick provides insights on SpaceX options activity and market sentiment.

“The nitty-gritty from the options pit next.”

Expert Analysis on SpaceX Options

44:16 to 45:51

Mike Coe analyzes significant trades and market dynamics for SpaceX stock.

“Let's now bring in CNBC contributor Mike Coe.”

Final Trades Segment

45:51 to 46:52

The hosts share their final trade recommendations based on current market conditions.

“If oil continues on its downward path, you've got to buy the cruise lines, you've got to buy the airlines.”

Final Trades Segment

47:30 to 47:58

The hosts share their final trade recommendations based on current market conditions.

“Imagine relying on a dozen different software programs to run your business, because of the way it promotes growth.”
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Transcript

Automatic transcript. May contain errors.

0:02Mazda has been named Consumer Reports' safest new car brand. It starts with our approach. Every Mazda comes standard with proactive safety features. So you're more aware of what's around you, more focused on the road ahead, and ready before problems ever start. Mazda. More of what matters most to you. Go to mazdausa.com to learn more. Consumer Reports does not endorse or promote any product. At Edward Jones, we believe rich is more than caring about the latest and greatest. It's also taking care of what gives your life meaning. That's why your dedicated financial advisor meets you where you are with personalized financial strategies that help protect what matters so you can preserve your progress while creating a path forward.

0:51The key to being rich is knowing what counts. Let's find your rich together. Edward Jones, member SIPC.

1:02Tim Seymour:Live from the Nasdaq market site in the heart of New York City's Times Square, this is Fast Money. Here's what's on tap tonight. Not enough space. Shares of SpaceX continuing to blast off into the stratosphere. But is it sucking all the oxygen out of the room for the other tech stocks? We'll debate that. Plus, Skybridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci, the mooch, is here, ready to weigh in on crypto's next move. The retail trading frenzy and the surge in popularity for perpetual futures will join us in just a few minutes. and later Caterpillar's record climb, tripping down memory stock lane.

1:32Tim Seymour:And who could be binging, a binging buy, I should say, how Netflix's M &A attempts are weighing on the stock. I'm Melissa Lee. Come to you live from Studio B at the NASDAQ. On the desk tonight, C. Grasso, Karen Feinerman, Dan Nathan, and Guy Adami. We start off with the big swings in SpaceX on its third day as a publicly traded company. Shares have been up as much as 17 percent at session highs, but late-day selling brings shares back to Earth, closing up just 5 percent. Since listening on the Nasdaq Friday, the stock has gained about 50 percent. Now approaching$2.7 trillion in market value, it has narrowly surpassed Amazon to become the fifth largest public company.

2:07Tim Seymour:But at its best levels, it briefly overtook Microsoft to become the fourth biggest company. Elsewhere in tech, the Nasdaq closed down more than a percent today. Semis, which had been in the lead position of late, were among the biggest decliners. The SMH down nearly 5 percent following three straight positive sessions. And software unable to get out of its own way. The IGV down over a percent for its 10th losing session in 11. So is SpaceX's gain? Tech's pain. Or with shares any of the day well off their highs? Is this just a broad tech breather guy?

2:39Melissa Lee:Yeah, I'm not sure it was a SpaceX thing, but I will tell you. And Steve had a great call on the SpaceX thing. It traded well in post IPO. And we can have that conversation. But in terms of what we saw in tech, some of these reversals, I think, are pretty noteworthy. And I'm not sure necessarily it has anything to do with the activity in SpaceX. But something happened today where you see Micron, for example, if our crack staff in EC can put up a chart, makes an all-time high. And it closes significantly lower on its lows of the day on decent amount of volume. I mean, that's something you're looking for if you think this thing might be long in the tooth.

3:12Melissa Lee:Now, quite candidly, we've seen this before, but I'd be remiss if I didn't point it out now.

3:16Tim Seymour:Yeah. Not all of those stocks, though. I mean, Seagate, Western Dig, those are both higher. So there are real pockets here that did OK off the highs of the day, but, you know, did OK.

3:27Melissa Lee:Yeah, I think that's one area, memory and storage, where there really is huge capacity constraint right now. And they have lots of pricing power. And I think a lot of investors kind of feel that. They look into 2027 and they see it going through then. But at some point, you have to ask yourself, what are discounts? I think what's most interesting, and I agree with Guy, I don't really think it had much to do with SpaceX here. I think a lot of investors are looking at it. And while they might have gotten allocated at 135, they might have had after market orders. They're not buying up at 200. This feels like a bit of a retail sort of frenzy here.

3:57Melissa Lee:But I don't think fundamentally SpaceX is that important to what's going on in the market. I think you want to take it back to the semis, away from memory and storage. And if you just look at the range that the SMH has been trading in over the last week and a half, it's 550 to 650. I mean, it's doing this at an all-time high after it had doubled, right, going back to two months or so. So I think this is really what you want to watch here. You just mentioned Micron. You know, Intel had a difficult day here today. So to me, I just think the semis is the story. I know that sounds pretty obvious, but at some point when they break 550, that could be something that really drives the NASDAQ down.

4:29Melissa Lee:I think Quantum is probably having money taken out of there versus the semis. It may be semis overall because there's a lot more money in semis than there is in Quantum. So I do believe it's an ATM. Having said that, you have the Russell, the MSCI, and then also you have the NASDAQ, all coming with their inclusions in the next 15 days. So I had thought you were going to get a sell-off maybe 10 days, capture that maybe there's a gap between where you could sell the stock, get a little bit out of it to the downside. I think everyone had the same idea. So I think it's not going to happen. I think people are chasing this.

5:05Melissa Lee:The float is so ultra small. and then you have these three indices that are adding it, I think this could be a chase, a real dramatic chase. Are you saying the flow of SpaceX is small? Yeah. Really? Only 4 % of it's available. Right, but it's still$100 billion, so I don't know, or more. Yeah, so there's 4 % of the, when you talk about valuation, I know, I know, but still, you're at$2 trillion. Yeah, so you also have, yeah, but what's available and then the 4 % of what's available, I think that becomes the caveat. So I don't think you have that much that's really available, and that's why you've seen this squeeze.

5:46Melissa Lee:And then you're going to have anywhere from$20 to$40 billion in the hands of the indices. And that's a passive investor who doesn't stop buying. So every time the stock moves up or moves down, they have to recalculate it. And every time somebody buys the Qs, they have to buy SpaceX. It's an annuity at this point. So what do you think of the action? So what I thought was sort of interesting was that oil is telling you the Iran conflict is over. And the rest of the market is telling you we're not buying it, I think. So, you know, you had retail not doing particularly well. We talk a lot about energy.

6:19Energy did pretty well, considering the last two days, how much oil has been down. That space has really not, I mean, has far, far outperformed. That was really interesting to me, this sort of, you know, very different takes on the same story. the same news. So that stood out to me sort of more than anything else. I think the SpaceX things really is interesting. I just, you know, I find it eclipsing Microsoft and Amazon briefly kind of, I don't know, ridiculous, maybe, sort of, to me that, you know, this is all, he's proven to be a genius over time and create incredible, incredible things. We're just not there at the moment in terms of valuation to approach that.

7:03Tim Seymour:But as you know, the stock is not trading on any sort of fundamental story. It is trading on a hope and a dream. A hope and a dream and a structural issue. And index inclusion. A mechanical buyer. Everybody knows about the index inclusion. It did make me remember Tesla, which was, I think it was during the pandemic when Tesla was added. And Tesla traded up 20 bucks like to, I forget the number, 20 bucks over where it was trading and then immediately traded down. So it was definitely a, you know, buy the index news, sell the news. It's not a rumor. It's true. I think we could see that as well. But I don't know.

7:41I thought to me that I do think we're going to have more volatility to come because I do think the Iran thing isn't settled yet. I know it's not as big an issue as it was two months ago, but I still think there's more downside.

7:55Tim Seymour:And the cracks in the semiconductor trade, which had been sort of the poster child of the scarcity trade for AI, right, overall, I mean, more so the memory stocks, but overall semiconductors, that's being questioned. IGV is completely questioned being down 10 of 11 sessions.

8:10Melissa Lee:Yeah, no doubt. I mean, and there is a long way from the crack to the break, Mel. And when you think of that... That's a great song by Mumford and his son. Oh, see that? Okay. I'm just, we did that once before. It's not that interesting. You know, I think you can put all the cracks together and you You start thinking about it piece by piece, but it really hasn't been a great way to invest or take the other side of this market, you know, going back at least a year or so. When I think about IGV, which you just mentioned, something happened today. I don't know if they mentioned it all day on CNBC.

8:35Melissa Lee:Did you see that Salesforce bought an AI customer service agent company for$3.6 billion? Now, normally you'd say, that's a big acquisition. Here's a company that's trading at multi-year lows. This is Salesforce. They're paying a very high price for this, right? The company is also, you know, and guys mentioned it many times, I think it was two quarters ago, they said they're going to buy$50 billion of their stock back, right? So they're making acquisitions. They're trying to buy their stock back. They're trying to tell a story about how they're using agents. This is almost, I mean, is this a white flag a little bit about Agent Force and what they've been talking about, that they have to go out and pay a huge price for something that's probably worth far less than what they just paid for?

9:11Melissa Lee:Possibly. So might we start seeing, and I want to call them forced acquisitions by these companies whose stocks are not being appreciated whatsoever? So, again, I think you could see a bunch of acquisitions, smaller software acquisitions. And the other thing is, you know, SpaceX goes public. They have a$2.5 trillion market cap. What do they do? They exercise an option to buy a company for$60 billion. This is cursor. This is insanity. But they did that before the force. No, no, but they exercised the option. Okay, so they didn't have to do that, and they had the option, right? So my point is, it's like, all right, you go public, and four days later, you have this massive valuation.

9:44Melissa Lee:Then you go buy that thing that you couldn't really buy before when you're in the private markets. So a lot of funky stuff is going on right now. The lockup period is going to be, what is it, August 11th? You probably have it in front of you because I know you have the dates. I mean, that's when things get really interesting. We'll see how much comes to the market. Then we can start having a conversation. From now until then, the machinations of the market are going to take over. You have options in there. You have people buying weekly$300 calls. It seems all absurd, but, you know, the gamification of the market is in full effect.

10:12Melissa Lee:Karen's point is spot on, I think. You know, the energy market is telling you one thing. The rest of the market may be something else. I will say again, I get why crude oil is lower. It makes sense. I don't think the energy stocks have traded all that poorly. XLE closed unchanged on a day-ish. It's down, I think, maybe 15%. I'm doing back-of-the-envelope math off its all-time high. That's not catastrophic, in my opinion.

10:33Tim Seymour:Yeah, excellent. Got an upgrade today, by the way, with Bank of America, which is interesting. Meantime, oil, as you've been mentioning, under pressure, WTI falling to as low as$77 a barrel today, as the deal with Iran could put more crude on the market. Here to take us inside today's back and forth at the G7 is Megan Casella, live from Geneva. Megan. Melissa, President Trump has now wrapped up his second day here at the G7. He sat down today with some Middle Eastern leaders sitting down bilaterally with the heads of the UAE and Qatar. There was a full G7 working lunch with some Middle Eastern leaders as well.

11:05And President Trump, as he's been here now two full days, he's getting somewhat of a warmer reception, I would say, than at least what many advisers I had spoken to before this had expected. And that's because he's coming in here with at least the framework of a deal with Iran in hand. Now, they're winding down tensions and reopening the strait, but we also know that leaders are still pushing the president for more details here. They want to see more from him on the permanent end to hostilities. We know that while we haven't seen the text, these G7 leaders also have not seen the text. And we have new reporting now from our colleagues at MS Now that Israel, the U.S.'s partner in this war, has also not yet seen the text of this memorandum of understanding.

11:42We can also say there is more focus now at the G7 on what's not in this deal. We've learned more about what's in it, but also more about what's not in it. And that's any specifics on what Iran will have to do on its nuclear program. There's nothing in there, for example, on how Iran will dispose of its nuclear material. There's nothing on ending future Iranian uranium enrichment. There's nothing on dismantling nuclear facilities or on inspecting and monitoring of sites. All of that being pushed down the road, Melissa, to be negotiated in this 60-day period. So clearly pushing all of the hardest issues down the road.

12:14I'll also say President Trump is set to have a press conference in Evian, France tomorrow at the close of the G7. That's set for the 9 a.m. Eastern hour. We could get some more details on all of this at that point. Melissa?

12:25Tim Seymour:Are we clear that the Strait of Hormuz is actually open, Megan? We've heard a few mixed things on that. What we can say for sure is that Trump administration officials are promising that it's opening immediately, but they're acknowledging that it will take some time for traffic to get back up to pre-war levels, that they're starting the work now, including with some of their partners here, the U.K. and France, among them, to demine the strait and to get things back up to pre-war levels. But it's going to take some time. What we don't know, though, is what things look like after 60 days. It appears that Iran has only agreed to reopen that strait and not to charge tolls and not to be firing on commercial ships just for the next 60-day period.

13:05We've heard some mixed things about what happens after that. President Trump says that tolls will not be charged at the end of that 60-day period. Vice President Vance, though, told us that it hasn't yet been negotiated. Yes, the U.S.'s stance remains that it will be toll-free, but they still have to work that out with the Iranians. So, yes, for now, it's starting to get reopened. It will take some time to get there, and we don't know what happens after 60 days. And as you know, Melissa, the more uncertainty there is around this, and because, of course, there's no long-term resolution, there's plenty of uncertainty, that means it's just going to take that much longer for traffic to start picking back up.

13:35Tim Seymour:Yeah. Megan, thank you. Megan Casella in Geneva for us. It is amazing that oil has dropped as much as it has dropped, given all the uncertainties surrounding this deal.

13:44Melissa Lee:That's the commodities market, right? Stairs up, elevator down. You're seeing the elevator portion. I will say to those that care, oil traded down to the 200-day moving average today for the first time in quite some time and seemingly held. Now, tomorrow's another day. I get it. But this is an actually pretty interesting level, given the backdrop that we find ourselves in.

14:01Tim Seymour:If we see oil prices remain where they are, Karen, we've already seen industrials, for instance, do quite well, particularly in response to the drop in oil prices, which actually the drop started back in May and like mid-May. Oil prices have been slowly ticking lower and lower and lower. Is that going to be good for consumer stocks, which you said haven't responded that much recently? I know. I would think they would have responded better to this, right? One of the things that made consumer stocks do so poorly was the idea of, all right, people are really feeling it at the pump, as well as the uncertainty about the war that had ongoing hostilities at the time.

14:32No longer really. But I hope so. I think so. I think if I were a retailer, probably I would still hang on to conservative estimates because why not? You can. Yes.

14:44Tim Seymour:Let's turn out to the Fed. The clock is ticking to new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's first decision on interest rates. Our next guest expects the committee to take a neutral policy stance with no rate cuts for the rest of the year. Let's bring in Sakjan Subhaja Rajapa. She is Associate General's Head of Research. Subhaja, great to have you with us. Thank you for having me. What do you think Kevin Warsh is going to do right out of the gate? Do you think he puts a dot on the dot plot? I mean, the thing that he doesn't like. I mean, how will things seem different tomorrow, do you think? Well, the dot plot, whether he puts a dot on the dot plot is still in question.

15:17I think that you'll get the submissions from all of the rest of the committee. It'll also be interesting to see if his press conference is short or much shorter than what it was in prior years, or if he changes the whole communication strategy to not have press conferences at every meeting. So there's just a lot of things that he can change, and he's shown us a willingness to want to change things.

15:42Tim Seymour:In terms of the backdrop of the war and now with the framework of a peace deal and the drop that we were just talking about, drop in oil prices, does that change how you think about what the Fed will do or say? Yeah, I think that Kevin Walsh is in a sweet spot. He can point to the dramatic decline in oil prices. He can point to interest rates starting to drift lower. So the risk sentiment has also improved quite dramatically. So that gives him a lot of leeway to really keep policy on hold if he wants for the foreseeable future, at least for, you know, all of perhaps all of this year and next year, which is our call.

16:19So I think that, you know, the the fact that risky assets are doing as well as they are really sets up for the for the Fed to, you know, to hold sort of a neutral stance for the remain of the year.

16:30Melissa Lee:His focus has been the balance sheet. What possibilities and how much time have you given what the possibilities he can do something around the edges on the balance sheet? Because right now, consensus isn't with him to be cutting rates. So maybe that's the first thing that he affects change in is the balance sheet. Have you thought about what he could possibly do with that before he even starts building consensus as far as rates? Yeah. So his expectation is to want to bring down the size of the balance sheet. I don't think he does anything on the balance sheet for a while because the amount of reserves in the system is dictated by the regulatory regime.

17:08And for now, the reserves in the system are a little over$3 trillion. So I think that they probably don't really act on balance sheet until there's some changes on the regulatory side. And I don't think that the changes in the regulatory side are forthcoming.

17:24Melissa Lee:You know, with the S &P just off about one, one and a half percent from its all time highs, Guy likes to use this expression like the stock market's a discounting mechanism. What would you say the market is discounting right here, given all the uncertainty that, you know, we've seen, obviously geopolitical. But you just described, you know, we don't know what Kevin Walsh is going to say and how that's going to shake out. And we have seen some periods of volatility in the stock market when we've had a Fed, well, it's just been Jerome Powell, kind of have slight, even slight shifts as it relates to what they think policy is going to be.

17:54I think the most important message the market is going to want to hear tomorrow is that the Fed is not looking to hike rates. I think, broadly speaking, the market is pricing in for one hike for the next six to eight months. To me, that's more of a risk scenario than a base case scenario for the Fed. So if he sounds like he's willing to keep policy on hold, given the fact that inflation is somewhat sticky, that would be good news for the markets. I don't see him pivoting on the dovish side either because it'll be a little too premature for him to show his hands, especially at a time when inflation is somewhat sticky and potentially rising into core PC for next week.

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18:34Melissa Lee:When crude oil was going higher, the yen was weakening. It made sense. Crude oil is going lower. The yen continues to weaken, which doesn't make a lot of sense. It's now north of 160 against the bond market there that continues to sort of sell off. Is that a concern? Forget about Kevin Walsh. Is that a concern that you might have right now? So 160 has been a level that everybody's watching. I think that the BOJ is probably on track to raise rates maybe by, you know, four, 25 basis point hikes over the next year. And, you know, the Bank of Japan with this intervention has been able to keep its currency in check.

19:10So I think for the most part, I don't really see the potential for a lot of volatility in currencies in general for the remainder of the year, whether it be the yen or the dollar.

19:23Tim Seymour:Subhajra, great to see you. Thank you for coming by, Subhajra Rajapa. And do not miss our coverage of Kevin Walsh's first Fed decision tomorrow, live from Washington, starting at 1 p.m. Eastern time. Coming up, Caterpillar keeps climbing the fresh record high for the equipment giant in the next move for the industrial sector. Plus, memory stock mayhem the big move higher over the past week. And if there's more room to run, don't go anywhere. Fast Money is back in two.

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21:23Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. And he shares a Caterpillar jumping more than 2 % today and hitting a fresh record high. The equipment giant continuing its strong year, up nearly 70 % since January, and helping lead the industrial sector over the last year. XLI also outperforming the broader markets so far this year as well. And, of course, this is also getting a boost from AI. So it is AI adjacent. But how do you feel about the likes of Caterpillar? Well, my most liked Caterpillar is United Rentals. It's part of the same story. Slightly off its highs, though. Caterpillar has outperformed, you know, GE Vrnova's off its highs, a number of them.

21:57Qantas Services, they own, also a little bit off its highs. But having a tremendous year. I think, you know, if one were to believe the SpaceX story, are we going to move all of that into space? Starting in 2030, which I don't know. Who knows, I guess. So that's the expiration for the story then. Possibly somewhat before then. But in the meantime, though, they have years of work ahead of them, I think. And I think oil coming down is good. So I like United Rentals. I'm long. It is not cheap, though. It used to be cheap. But it is not cheap anymore. It deserves where it is. But not much more. Given what's going on, I think, I don't know.

22:40I feel like it's, if I own none, I'd buy some, but I already own a lot.

22:43Melissa Lee:In large part, they were re-rated because of the AI and the CapEx spend, to Karen's point. Forget about space. The space is long off. I agree with Karen wholeheartedly. But if CapEx spend comes in at all, AI story gets disrupted at all, the valuation on this, it could be a bloodbath. So if you do own it, I would take some profits. I mean, just look at the P.E. ratio on this. It's expensive to itself and it usually does not hold these levels. But you've been you've reaped. This is exactly why you played it. This is exactly when you should get out. You know, the pushback on that is Caterpillar came out.

23:21Melissa Lee:They said they're targeting$35 for earnings in their investor day. And then you start doing back in the envelope. And given that earnings growth, I mean, you're talking about maybe 35 % earnings growth. I mean, it's not ridiculous in this environment. So despite the$900 price tag, I don't think it's all that expensive. I think they report in early August.

23:40Tim Seymour:It is interesting, Karen's notion about if you believe in space, than what stories will be capped by all this stuff moving to Mars.

23:50Melissa Lee:I just think that bringing things down to Earth for a second here, just think about how much it costs to go around the moon with this Artemis. Just think about how difficult it was to do the thing that we supposedly did back in... Of course we did. Uh-oh. You said that. Don't drag me into this. What we supposedly did with the technology that is... You do say it all the time. Where do I say this? Are you constantly whenever the moon is mentioned? Let me just say one thing. Elon, if you look, the most impressive, one of the most impressive things was how much they've gotten cost down, right, by 90 some odd percent.

24:22Melissa Lee:Well, let's see. I mean, like, he's a big contractor to the guy. You know, I mean, like, listen, Artemis is there. He did an amazing thing. My only point is, like, if you're buying, you know, SpaceX right now for data centers in space, you better have a very long time browsing. He will do it if he says he's going to do it. But you do have Starlink and you do have Cursor as of today, which Cursor changes the math dramatically. And I think that's why you saw the stock run as well. So I think, to your point, the data centers in space could be optimists or full self-drive, something he's striving for while the others do the heavy lifting.

24:54Melissa Lee:Remember Billy Bob Thornton said we have better rockets than the Coyote? Remember that? It's Armageddon. It's a great movie. You didn't see Armageddon? How did you not see Armageddon? Great movie. She was out singing somewhere. Michael Bay. Performing.

25:05Tim Seymour:Coming up, big moves from memory stocks over the past week. But some of these names saw a sharp reversal from records today. The stocks tripping down memory lane next. You're watching Fast Money Live from the NASDAQ Market Side in Times Square. Back right after this.

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26:42Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. The memory madness continues with data storage stocks all on the move. SanDisk, Micron, Western Digital, and Seagate all popping early in the day before selling off. Western Digital and Seagate, however, end of the day in green. Despite their midday sell-off, both are still up double digits in just one week. You were mentioning on the call, you mentioned what looked like an outside reversal on Micron, but the volume wasn't there.

27:05Melissa Lee:Volume's not there, but technically it still happened. And look, label me somebody that completely missed this because I'm somebody that grew up that these are highly cyclical, highly commoditized companies, without question. People argue it's way different this time. You're missing something about it. Clearly, I am. I will say this, though. The wrong time historically to buy these stocks are when they're at their cheapest. In terms of valuation, they are cheap. If you believe competition is coming or if they've been double, triple ordering or if somehow magically this whole CapEx thing, which Steve mentioned, falls or wavers even a little bit, these stocks go down a lot faster than you think.

27:41Melissa Lee:And just go back to March and look at the micron quarter. They reported stock was trading at an all time high. It was a ridiculous quarter. The stock proceeded to go down about 35 percent over the course of eight days. That's a glimpse of what could happen here.

27:54Tim Seymour:I talked to the most bearish analysts on the street at Susquehanna about these names specifically, and he singled out the hard disk drive maker. So the Seagate and the Western Digital is being more sort of dangerous at this point in terms of the run, because they are going to add capacity and prices are going to drop. And so that's going to be a problem that he sees, whereas he likes the Microns and the SanDiscs.

28:15Melissa Lee:I would think that affects the Microns and the SanDiscs and the SK Hynix and the Samsung. I think it affects the whole complex, but I'm with Guy. The boom-bust cycle in memory is something that you really have to be wary of. But I was in Micron and out of Micron, but I caught this much, this much of this type of move. I wouldn't be in it now, but I've been wrong for the last$300.

28:39Tim Seymour:Coming up, crypto, SpaceX mania, and perpetual futures. Skybridge Capital's Anthony Scariotchi is here in the house to dig into all the market trends, making waves and what he sees in store for it all. He doesn't look like that picture, by the way. He will join us next in Fast Money Returns.

28:58Melissa Lee:Missed a moment of fast? Catch us anytime on the go. Follow the Fast Money podcast. We're back right after this.

29:13Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money Sox. Closing mixed today. The Dow climbing more than 300 points. closing at a record high, the S &P falling half a percent, the Nasdaq dropping more than a percent. Market exchanges like the SIBO and CME getting hit today. CFTC Chair Michael Selig joining us last night in defending the agency's decision to approve perpetual futures for crypto, which are futures contracts with no expiration date that allow traders to speculate on price without owning the underlying asset. Well, our next guest is a major supporter of perpetual futures. Anthony Scaramucci is a founder and managing partner at Skybridge Capital.

29:44Tim Seymour:Anthony, great to see you.

29:49I'm so happy to be here.

29:51Tim Seymour:It's great to have you back here on the day. You used to sit here for the entire show and be a traitor. Yes, I even brought my mom to this set. Remember that day with Oliver Stone? Yes. Yes, Wall Street too. Good fun. Perpetual futures, why are you a proponent? Well, it's like everything in life, you have to accept what's coming, whether you like it or not. Are there elements of perpetual futures I do not like? Yes, of course. We go over those. But they're here. The technology is here to have them. We're using them in the cryptocurrency markets for at least a decade. And people are going to use them.

30:27And so I feel that we should get them in place and we should regulate them propitiously as opposed to debate whether or not they're going to happen. And so that's the sort of real political realist side of my personality.

30:40Tim Seymour:Is it is it a product that Skybridge employs? So we have used perpetual futures in the crypto markets and we have traded 24 seven. I think we've used the hype system as an indication for something like SpaceX, where you could get sort of a look into what the IPO post trading activity was going to look like. But we haven't used it on the stock and bond side yet with any material. We just haven't done it yet.

31:07Melissa Lee:Let's go to Bitcoin because you've been an enthusiast. You've been right for a long time. And you've seen moves like this in Bitcoin before from peak to trough. But it's what's different, in my opinion, is the bullseye on Microsoft strategies back in the terms of their holdings in our average price. Where do you sort of start to get concerned when you can see the predatory nature of the market start to kick in? Well, I mean, listen, I'm concerned. I've been humbled by life and I've been humbled by markets. A lot has happened to me since the last time I showed up on this desk. So I say this with great humility that Bitcoin has gone through in my lifetime as an investor with Bitcoin four year cycles.

31:45And so what's going on right now is very consistent with the four year cycle and just hitting more or less a few months after the halving cycle. So we'll have another halving guy roughly in April of 2028. But prior to that, about nine months prior to that, you'll start to see the recovery in Bitcoin. So I think Bitcoin starts a rally late in the fourth quarter of 2026 into early 2027. And this has been a shallow cycle for Bitcoin. Bitcoin usually goes down between 60 and 70 percent from its high. It's down roughly 50. There's a lot of traditionalists that say, wow, there's more to go here on Bitcoin.

32:24But I think we've been buffered by the institutional buying at the ETF level and the broader retail buying of Bitcoin at the ETF level. So, you know, is Michael in trouble? He's definitely not in trouble. He has a fortress balance sheet. You have to really understand the mechanisms of the balance sheet to understand that Bitcoin can go a lot lower and he's virtually not in trouble. He also bought back some of these converts recently, which takes that piece of it off the table. That was something he was probably a little bit worried about. He's got a very deep capital pool that he can access and he's still trading.

33:00You know, you can go to the strategy app and you look at his MNAV in terms of what the price of the stock is relative to the value of his Bitcoin. He's still trading at a 1.2, 1.3 NAV, which gives him the necessary arbitrage for people to get comfortable with that trade. So I like it. I like him. I think he's going to be right. And we're at the point in the cycle where the RSI is at an all time low for Bitcoin. The apathy is there. No one cares about it anymore. If you look at Google searches, they're way, way down. You and I have been doing this a long time, guys. My 38th year as an investor.

33:38When you have RSI where it is, apathy where it is, and it's a thin market. Remember, Bitcoin is only the size now of micron technology. Just look at the overall market capitalization of Bitcoin. And a tiny bit of demand for Bitcoin moves to price. That happened this week, 61 to 65. It got to 67. It backed off. So I still like it. I own a lot of it. So I am talking my book. I just want to make sure I'm very clear with everybody on that. But I think it's right there where you would expect it to be in the four-year cycle.

34:09Melissa Lee:And doesn't that make the case? You just said a thin market, right? When you talk about perpetual futures versus, let's say, the CME just listed micros that trade 24-7. And you think about the liquidity that you have on the weekends. I mean, some of the stuff that's gone on on Hyperliquid, it's really volatile. It might not be indicative of what's going on. And I'm just wondering, when you think about what the CME is offering, and they were the first ones to obviously list futures going back to 2017, I just can't get my arms around why you would trade perpetual futures. And I get it. They don't have an expiration versus what goes on in the CME.

34:42Well, I think you're making Terry's case. I mean, I think you're making Kerry's case. I would say to you in a normative society, in a world of oughts and shoulds, that that's the right approach and that's the right thinking. But that's not the world we're living in. It's the same thing with AI. I don't like AI. We're going to turn ourselves into robots or we're going to end up in the Terminator movie. You can make that suggestion. But you know what? There's going to be people. It's an eight billion person planet that are going to have AI. I would rather have us involved with it and see if we can get some checks and balances of control on it.

35:15So it would be the same thing in the perpetual futures market. I think Terry's made a compelling case exactly like yours, and I agree with it. But I guess I'm at an age in my life where I'm looking at things saying, OK, this is going to happen whether I like it or not. And so how do I get my arms around it? How do we regulate it properly? You made the case for me not using it because Melissa asked me if I was going to use it myself. I said no. But I do think it does provide some indication of what's going on in the markets. when the markets return to normal trading, you know, sort of 930 to 4 o 'clock.

35:50And, guys, it's coming whether we like it or not. And so let's embrace it and let's try to get our arms around it. And let's try to get people like Terry as comfortable with it as possible. First, great to have you here in person. Super fun. Thanks, Karen. It's good to be here. So I've been in Bitcoin for a long, long time. You, me, and Melissa are all taking the same youth serum. I can't see those other people. It's working for us, Karen. So one of the things that I liked about it was the potential devaluation of the dollar as we just become more and more indebted. And actually, I think, you know, the dollar sort of bottomed, I don't know, a year or so ago.

36:24How much do you think that reversal of the dollar has played into the heaviness of Bitcoin or how much of it is the Clarity Act? Yeah. Well, listen, remember, we came in. If you if you had brought me on in November, you said, how do we look for rates this year? I would have looked at you and said, well, the consensus is we're going to get three rate cuts, 75 basis points down in rates. It now looks like plus 25. We saw what the Bank of Japan did this week. And so you have 100 basis point differential in expectation from where we were at the beginning of the year to where we are right now. I think that had a huge impact on the dollar and had a huge impact on Bitcoin.

37:02The Clarity Act, I think, is a big issue as well, because I would have said to you, I would have gotten this wrong again. I would have said the Clarity Act would have been passed in 25 and it didn't. And it's now lagging into 26. If it doesn't pass in July, I think it's going to be very hard to get it passed prior to the midterms. And so that's going to be a whole other fight. And older Democrats, OK, Democrats in the House that are above the age of 60. They don't like it. Ask Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders what they think about Bitcoin. They're like forming anti crypto armies and so forth.

37:36So so we got to get it passed now. I think it's a big drag. By the way, if you get that passed, and I do, I'm better than 50 % on that one. I think it gets passed. If you get it passed, I think you've paved the way for a lot more innovation, a lot more activity on the blockchain. And listen, I just want you to think about this. We have to envision the future. It's, again, like Perpetual Futures. It's going to happen. There wasn't one taxi cab commission, one mayor that wanted Uber. But you know who wanted Uber? The people wanted Uber and the people got it. OK, so that's what's going on right now.

38:10There's a tug of war between the old world and the new world. And I should be for the old world, but I'm not. I'm actually for the new world because that's where my kids are going to be living.

38:21Tim Seymour:Are you at all worried? Not worried, but, you know, thinking that maybe the volume in actual Bitcoin trading will go down because of the the ability for people to bet in perpetual futures or in other ways where they don't have to own. underlying. And that will just lead to an extended crypto winter for Bitcoin. Really good point. People are saying, well, that's sort of like a paper Bitcoin or a creation of additional supply of Bitcoin. It's not clear to me. I don't buy that theory. I believe Bitcoin is either going to transition and be adopted as a store of value asset and a result of which people are going to look around and say, OK, I'll have a one or two, three percent position in Bitcoin like I do with gold.

39:03I'll accept it as a store of value asset, or it won't be. And I'll have to come on, and you guys can throw eggs at me or dunk me or something like that. I'll say, geez, I really got that wrong. I thought that the technical capabilities of Bitcoin and the way Bitcoin is set up, if you look at the history of money, Melissa, it does look like a really good mousetrap for money and storage of value. And if we don't adopt it, then I'll have to eat crow on it. But I do believe that if gold is a$25 trillion asset, roughly, could Bitcoin get to a$10 trillion asset? I believe that that's possible. Again, it may not be the people at this table, but there's a 25, 30-year-old new money manager right now that in 10 years is going to be 35, 45.

39:48He's going to want to own Bitcoin or she's going to want to own it because she's more comfortable with it. And that's where I think things are going. And it's hard to see the future today. But when we started Fast Money, the computers didn't look like this, right? How old is Fast Money? We'll be 20 years if we make it to January. So if you make it to January, you'll be 20 years old. So I just want to imagine if I came to you from 2026 and went back 20 years, I said, look at what happened in the world comparatively. Look at what happened in the growth of things.

40:20Tim Seymour:And during the whole arc of Fast Money, we were on Bitcoin from the beginning. I remember that. But Ethereum, like all these, you know, cryptos that nobody had ever heard of before. I was here talking to you about Bitcoin at 600. Yes. And I looked into the camera. I said, I don't understand it. And I said, caveat emptor. And then because of my smugness and my arrogance, I put that out on Twitter. OK, I just let everybody know. So at 600, I missed it. When it got to 2000, I missed it. When the Winklevosses came to Salt, when you were also there hosting Salt with us. I think it was$1 ,800. I missed it.

40:59And then by the time I got to the understanding of it, I bought my first Bitcoin at$6 ,000. So I missed the move from$600 to$6 ,000. And so you were right.

41:11Tim Seymour:But in terms of where we are now, you can make the argument that everything that you wanted for Bitcoin to go higher is here. I mean, you have institutional adoption now of Bitcoin more. You have Bitcoin on balance sheets of companies. Yeah, Karen's point is the big one, Melissa. What Karen is saying, if you get the Clarity Act and you get definition on stable coins and you get eventually the tokenization of real world assets and you get a Bitcoin custodial account at a money center bank without the money center bank taking a capital charge or an equity charge of their balance sheet, I think it's very transformative.

41:51I think you've then opened the gateway for Bitcoin. Morgan Stanley got there perhaps ahead of other people in terms of the wire houses. But if the Clarity Act passes, how are you going to be in wealth management without having Bitcoin as one of the potential weapons in your overall portfolio management? So I think that's the rate limiting step. So you're right. We've gotten up almost everything up until now. Now, if we get that and Bitcoin trades to 40 ,000, then, you know, you can invite me back. We'll have a dunking session. You're welcome back anytime, Anthony.

42:23Tim Seymour:I would like to come back. I'm going to try. I'm going to wear the guy, Adami, out. I mean, he's going skiing later with that vest on. No, I actually forgot that I was coming on. I'm very embarrassed. Good to see you, Anthony. Although I don't have the Barack Obama sports jacket on like Steve. Next time. Coming off the launch of SpaceX options contracts going live today as shares continue to blast higher. The nitty-gritty from the options pit next. Fast Money is back in tune.

42:57Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. SpaceX's third day of trading and its third day of gains shares up another 5%. It's rallied nearly 50 % since its record debut on Friday. And today, options for the stock officially opened. Our Oliver Rennick is at the SIBO in Chicago with more. Oliver.

43:14Melissa Lee:Hey, Melissa. Options offered a more nuanced look at SpaceX stock, though today the message was still largely one of bullish enthusiasm, with more calls trading than puts, and$1.5 billion of the total$2.6 billion in premium tied to calls. Seven out of the top ten most popular trades by the closing bell were calls. The most popular was the 220-strike call expiring Thursday, which traded about 65 ,000 times and needs an 11 % rally the next two days to break even. The most popular put contract was the 200-strike put expiring Thursday, which saw some big-money traders involved. Implied volatility in SpaceX ended at 115, which would make it the most volatile stock in the NASDAQ 100.

44:00Melissa Lee:And for an idea of what that means, options math takes you to an implied one-month move of roughly$66, meaning we could easily see SpaceX as low as$136 or as high as$268 by mid-July, Melissa.

44:14Tim Seymour:Oliver, thanks. Oliver Rennick. Let's now bring in CNBC contributor Mike Coe. So, Mike, what did you make of the action, and are you tempted to put a trade on?

44:23Melissa Lee:Am I tempted to put a trade? Well, I saw two big trades, one which interested me. The other one is just interesting. I saw somebody putting on a SEP205-225 collar, selling the 225 calls to buy the 205 puts. That was against about 7 ,500 contracts, so 750 ,000 shares of stock worth. So that's a hedge, basically, selling upside calls, buying downside puts. But the one outlay of premium was the July 325 calls. Somebody paid$7 for$7 ,000 of those,$490 ,000 in premium to bet that SpaceX goes up by more than 50 % over the course of the next month. Kind of like the rockets themselves, I guess, but that one's not for me.

45:06Tim Seymour:Were you watching this, Karen? Are you tempted to hedge in some way? I mean, no, it's fascinating. I think there's some crazy stuff going on. You think, wow, I can't believe that things are trading the way they are. The straddle, which we talked about, I'd look at the July. But the June, which Dancett was like 25. I actually, there's no way I would sell that. I would be a buyer if I had to be. But the one month at 60-some-odd dollars is expensive.

45:30Melissa Lee:Yeah, that's a little nuts. And it's probably going to move that way in either direction. We were just talking about this. NVIDIA and SpaceX, very similar price stocks, not market cap, but they trade the same amount of volume in the options market today, which is pretty astounding when you think about it. It just shows this frenzy for folks to get some exposure to the stock.

45:50Tim Seymour:Mike Coe, thank you. Up next, Final Trades.

46:04Tim Seymour:Time for the final trade. Let's go round the horn. Stephen.

46:07Melissa Lee:If oil continues on its downward path, you've got to buy the cruise lines, you've got to buy the airlines. I'm going with Delta. Karen. Yes. It's rather terrestrial relative to other things, but Amazon, I like it for both sides of the business. Dan. It is important to remember that markets, gravity, it's something that exists in them, too. And I think the reversal in the 70s today after making an all-time high was definitely pretty interesting. And I think it's going to be one step forward, two steps back in the 70s. I think it's so. You mentioned Anthony doesn't look like he looked in the picture.

46:37Tim Seymour:Because he was wearing a vest. He was very casual today. He was much younger. He's a handsome man.

46:42Melissa Lee:I think we can all agree. It's great to see Anthony. I love Anthony. Can I just say that I love Anthony? Am I allowed to say that? We all love him. I also love GDX.

46:51Tim Seymour:Thanks for watching Fast Money. Mad Money with June Pair and Restart right now.

46:58Tim Seymour:All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet, or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such.

47:25Tim Seymour:To view the full Fast Money Disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com forward slash Fast Money Disclaimer. Imagine relying on a dozen different software programs to run your business, because of the way it promotes growth.

47:35Melissa Lee:Some say Odoo is like a Magic Beanstalk, scaling with you while being magically affordable. And some say Odoo's programs for manufacturing, accounting, and more are like building blocks. And they're all connected on one platform. Doesn't Odoo sound amazing? Let Odoo harmonize your business with simple, efficient software that can handle everything for a fraction of the price. Sign up today at odoo.com. That's O-D-O-O dot com.

From the publisher

SpaceX continues to make history, shooting up 55% since its debut and overtaking Microsoft as the 4th largest U.S. company by market cap… but at what cost? The traders break down how the overwhelming success of the SpaceX IPO could be taking the oxygen out of chip and software stocks. Plus, could the crypto winter be thawing out? Skybridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci lays out where Bitcoin is heading after hitting $65K. Then, Caterpillar hits an all-time high, and how Netflix’s M&A attempts are weighing on the stock.

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