In short
Fast Money episode centers on year-end market momentum and 2026 setups. The S&P 500 logged a record close (14th of the year) after a stronger-than-expected 4.3% Q3 GDP print (vs 2.8% estimate). Panelists argue this supports a Santa-rally backdrop across assets: gold, silver, copper, and other industrial metals hit highs; bonds are selling off; and a weaker dollar helps commodities and international stocks.
Key claims
semiconductors and cyclicals (banks, industrials) can keep outperforming; corporate margins and CapEx/productivity tailwinds persist; inflation is expected to cool (Treasury counselor Joe LaVornia cites contained inflation expectations and disinflation from energy).
Notable examples
Micron’s results as a catalyst; copper miners like Freeport and Southern Copper; airlines as consumer spending resilience.
Guests
Joe LaVornia (Treasury counselor); Seamus Fernandez (Guggenheim pharma analyst); Brian Nagel (Oppenheimer Nike analyst). Also discussed: Meta buy call (Baird), Novo Nordisk’s FDA-approved oral GLP-1 pill (Seamus), and Nike turnaround (Nagel).
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Chapters
Tap a time to open that second in VOMarket Rally and Economic Indicators
0:00 to 0:22
Discussion on the S&P record close and implications of GDP growth.
“Mazda has been named Consumer Reports' safest new car brand.”
Market Rally and Economic Indicators
1:44 to 2:50
Discussion on the S&P record close and implications of GDP growth.
“We start with that race to records in the last stretch of the year.”
Analyzing Corporate Profit Margins
2:50 to 4:25
Experts discuss corporate profits and sectors likely to perform well.
“Well, nominal growth is probably north of 5 percent here.”
Consumer Confidence and Spending Trends
4:25 to 6:10
Examination of consumer confidence and spending amid economic challenges.
“If you think that tech is going to lead again, it could lead again.”
Opportunities Beyond Technology
6:10 to 7:51
Exploration of investment opportunities outside of the tech sector.
“I think we get back to this really difficult to analyze K-shaped economy and the different pieces of the consumer that we talk about and the different places where spending is actually really holding up.”
Commodity Market Insights
7:51 to 9:10
Insights into commodity markets and the implications of the dollar's strength.
“But a weaker dollar is also a tax on the consumer that nobody's willing to talk about.”
GDP Growth and Inflation Debate
9:10 to 14:01
Discussion with Joe Livornia on GDP growth, inflation, and economic policies.
“from further cutting rates, posting on True Social in part.”
Inflation and Dollar Dynamics
14:01 to 16:26
Discussion on the impact of the dollar strength on inflation and market dynamics.
“Although, you know, my guess is they'd like to see a weaker dollar.”
GDP and Market Reactions
16:27 to 17:26
Examining the implications of GDP growth and healthcare costs on market sentiment.
“I mean, are we just too hung up on inflation at this point?”
Bitcoin's Market Position
17:27 to 19:44
An analysis of Bitcoin's performance and investor behavior amid market fluctuations.
“The crypto now more than 30 percent off its record high.”
Show all 20 chapters
Meta's Stock Analysis
20:41 to 22:55
Insights on Meta's stock performance and potential for future growth.
“I want to grow the game of soccer and give every kid the chance to play.”
International Investing Outlook for 2026
22:56 to 28:01
Predictions for international investing opportunities and market trends.
“I think you're putting all of your eggs in one basket.”
International Market Underperformance
28:01 to 28:59
Discussion on the underperformance of international markets and investment strategies.
“I think this is really just the start of it.”
Teaser for Upcoming Segment on Novo
29:00 to 29:14
Preview of the discussion about Novo's new weight loss pill and its market potential.
Market Updates and Stock Highlights
29:19 to 29:58
Overview of stock performance and notable market movements, including Lionsgate and GM.
“The Nasdaq gaining more than half a percent.”
Novo Nordisk's Weight Loss Pill Discussion
29:59 to 35:38
In-depth analysis of Novo Nordisk's weight loss pill and its implications for the market.
“Did I mention I love small caps, by the way?”
Nike's Turnaround Challenges and Opportunities
35:39 to 42:00
Exploration of Nike's stock performance, management strategies, and future outlook.
“Well, I think it's Lily's battle to lose here on oral.”
Nike's Earnings and Turnaround Potential
42:00 to 43:30
Discussion on Nike's recent earnings and potential for a turnaround amidst challenges.
“I think you said this, you know, to kind of to run the company.”
Whiskey Industry Challenges
43:30 to 45:35
Exploration of the whiskey industry's struggles with demand and tariffs impacting major brands.
“The whiskey troubles hitting spirit makers and whether the industry can bounce back amid slowing demand.”
Holiday Surprises and Final Trades
45:35 to 46:40
Hosts share holiday treats and reveal their final stock trade recommendations.
“Before we get to final trades, we have a quick holiday surprise.”
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:02Mazda has been named Consumer Reports' safest new car brand. It starts with our approach. Every Mazda comes standard with proactive safety features. So you're more aware of what's around you, more focused on the road ahead, and ready before problems ever start. Mazda. More of what matters most to you.
0:22Tim Seymour:Go to mazdausa.com to learn more. Consumer Reports does not endorse or promote any product. At Edward Jones, we believe rich isn't about having life all figured out. It's opening yourself to all the possibilities. That's why your dedicated financial advisor provides long-term planning built around you, meeting you where you are, and helping you get closer to where you want to be. So no matter where you're starting from, you can move forward with confidence. The key to being rich is knowing what counts. Let's find your rich. Edward Jones, member SIPC. Live from the Nasdaq market site in the heart of New York City's Times Square, this is Fast Money.
1:05Tim Seymour:Here's what's on tap tonight. The S &P is setting a record close as we head into the final trading days of the year. Is this the start of a sustainable Santa Claus rally? Ho, ho, ho. And what's the setup into 2026? And Nike's biggest bull, the sportswear giant pacing for a fourth straight year of losses. But one analyst says shares are heading higher from here. He lays out his case later on this hour. Plus, Novo Nordisk scores a big win in the weight loss battle. It's now time to buy shares of Meta. And Tim's Miga has been a strong trade this year. But what's in store for international stocks once the ball drops?
1:38Tim Seymour:The ambassador will weigh in. I'm Melissa Leigh. Come to you live from Studio B at the NASDAQ. I'm the best tonight. Tim Seymour, Courtney Garcia, Steve Brasso, and Guy Adami. We start with that race to records in the last stretch of the year. The S &P rising half a percent, setting a record close. It's 14th of the year. The Dow less than a percent off its own all-time high as well. Today's gains come after a significantly stronger than expected GDP report. The U.S. economy growing at 4.3 percent in the third quarter compared to an estimate of 2.8 percent. And it wasn't just stocks in rally mode today.
2:10Tim Seymour:Gold, silver, LME, copper all hitting all-time highs as well. So does today set the stage for more records as we look to close out 2025? Guy, nice to have a record close here in the final days. You said ho-ho. I did, yeah. Well, it appears that. So, listen, today we have half day tomorrow, right? We have a full day, I think, on Friday. Next week is the same type of week. It's hard-pressed unless some piece of news comes out where the market's just not going to continue to levitate. The old saying is don't short a dull market, and that's what we're seeing. So, I think you're going to continue to see that.
2:44It's all asset classes, and quite frankly, it's a sell-off in the bond market as well, which also makes sense. We'll talk about GDP. Yeah. Tim? Well, nominal growth is probably north of 5 percent here. And there's an element on the inflation side that has to have you a little bit concerned, especially in a world where we have this kind of growth and we have an accommodative Fed. Equities should love this. And I think in the short run, the Fed is your friend. But I look to 26 and I think it may not be as easy as it appears now with the Fed on this side and the view that the Fed's going to change, become a more dovish Fed.
3:18I think the dynamic here on corporate profit margins is also extraordinary. I think this is what we've seen over the last couple of quarters. And I think we generally believe that the tailwinds are with us outside of trade tariff dynamics, which are certainly eating into some corporates, but others not so much. So I continue to be impressed by the fact that for all the negativity or so it seems in terms of the headlines on the indices, that semis continue to outperform. I think they will make a new relative high to the market before the end of the year. And I think there are opportunities in some of those beaten up names.
3:50Broadcom's one where I just think a lot of that was overdone. But what's been impressive, again, I get back to banks. I get back to the cyclical part of the economy that should reflect the kind of numbers we had today that really have been extraordinary. Citibank, I mean, these are no longer value plays, actually. These are actually ones that are expensive.
4:09Tim Seymour:Yeah, I mean, on top of semiconductors, industrials, financials, they are at or close to all-time highs at this point. And Wall Street is trying to change the narrative. If you look at them, all the upgrades have been outside of tech. Or I should say 40 of the last 50 have been outside of tech. If you think that tech is going to lead again, it could lead again. But you need to see that coming back in. If Micron had a bad print, we wouldn't have the Christmas rally. Micron, I don't want to say it was the cause of it, but without it, we wouldn't have had it, if that makes sense. I do think you're going to see an easier Fed.
4:43I think the narrative changes once the year changes, and I think we can go higher in the overall market.
4:49Tim Seymour:It did seem that Micron enabled the bulls to see the bull case, right, to believe in it. I mean, I think the bull case is still there. I mean, I think when you're getting this GDP print, clearly the economy is running hot. I think that's what people are looking for in 2026. We're also looking at we are likely going to see some high refund checks next year. We're expecting$50 to$55 billion that's injected into the economy after those refunds come in next year. I think what was really interesting to see was how strong the consumer was. And that's what we saw with the GDP report. And I think something people don't give enough credit to is how much baby boomers affect the economy.
5:21Tim Seymour:They control like$84 trillion of net worth or something along those lines. They're a lot less affected by the labor market. So even though people are concerned the labor market's soft, a lot of that is being controlled by older generations who aren't affected by that. And I think you're going to see a lot of this continue into 2026 and continue to see the economy do well. How long, though, can the consumer feel bad? fifth straight month of declines for consumer confidence and continue to spend. I mean, yes, you'll get a$2 ,000 check, some households will, but that only lasts for so long. Well, some of the things they're spending on, they have no choice.
5:51I mean, health care is a big component of this. I mean, you know, I think we all agree that, you know, some things you have to do. And obviously, food costs and energy costs, although subsiding a little bit, I mean, they're still problematic. So they will continue to spend because they have no choice. The question is, should they be spending? And that's a conversation we have seemingly all the time. I think we get back to this really difficult to analyze K-shaped economy and the different pieces of the consumer that we talk about and the different places where spending is actually really holding up.
6:21And I would point to airlines. I would point to certain parts of the travel experience. I would certainly, you know, we've talked to kind of top line service businesses and they continue to do better. But it's a case where this has been very perplexing for the street, for the investor community to really say. I mean, it's not green light for the consumer, but it is a place where this kind of growth and those people that are employed are doing quite well here. And 20 percent of the highest income earners are doing 50 percent of the spend. And sentiment indicators are what people say they feel. But you have to see where they actually spend the money.
6:54So I think people actually feel better with a job and they spend versus the sentiment.
7:01Tim Seymour:So then what's the message here? You keep on carrying on? I mean, in terms of where you see the leadership of the markets, you keep diversifying away from technology in order to sort of hedge that trade court? Yeah, I think you want to. I think you want to broaden out here. And I think you want to look at there's been the real AI winners here. But people are still concerned about the spend that's happening in AI. And I don't think that story is going away in 2026. But I do think people are really starting to get on board with this broadening idea that I think you are going to see continue happening.
7:28Tim Seymour:But one other thing we saw today is the dollar is weakening. Right. And that's actually good for things like international. That's good for things like commodities. So I think there's a lot of places you can invest in outside of tech that have a real opportunity here. Yeah, the dollar. Listen, it stopped going down seemingly around July, August of this year. It started to rally a little bit. But now I think Courtney's right to bring it up. I think that downward trajectory that's been on for the last couple of years is going to continue. Dollar, euro, I think around 118 or so. I think that is headed higher.
7:55Euro higher, dollar lower. Dollar, yen, its own animal. But a weaker dollar is also a tax on the consumer that nobody's willing to talk about. And we're making highs in a lot of the industrial metals, as we know. We've talked about the precious metals. But we're also seeing it in the broader commodity complex. You're even seeing things like iron ore, which are more reflective of broader growth, start to creep back up. So I love the copper trade. I love copper miners here. They are breaking out. In fact, they're up almost 40 percent really since August. And there's an argument that some of these copper miners have a lot of exposure to gold that people don't realize.
8:25Freeport is certainly one of them. Southern copper is another one. So I like the trade. I think the dollar, too. I think it's not a straight line lower, but I think people had expected a weaker dollar. It was a very crowded trade at one point mid-year. That obviously people caught up, and I think it's heading lower. And the deficit from supply demand as a percentage for silver is around 13 percent. percent. The deficit supply demand for copper is around five percent. But platinum. What was that? Platinum is only about I'm sorry, platinum is 13 percent, but no one talks about platinum. Right. So when you look at all these metals or industrial metals, those can go higher.
9:03Gold is more of a sentiment. There's no industrial use with gold.
9:06Tim Seymour:Let's dig deeper. Today's better than expected GDP. The president dismissing fears the hot data should keep the Fed from further cutting rates, posting on True Social in part. Inflation will take care of itself. And if it doesn't, we can always raise rates at the appropriate time. But the appropriate time is not to kill rallies, which could lift our nation by 10, 15, even 20 GDP points in a year, and maybe even more than that. For more, let's bring in Joe Livornia, counselor to the secretary of the Treasury Department. Joe, great to have you with us. Do you agree with that sentiment? I do. I mean, the thing is, the GDP numbers, which we could get into, were fantastic.
9:47It was a little private sector led. But what struck me, Melissa, is the profound weakness in the interest sensitive sectors of the economy, such as structures and residential structures, which are factories. By the way, they'll get a huge lift with the tax bill. 2026 should be great. But we've had seven quarters in a row where structures investment declined. Three quarters in a row where residential investments declined. mind. And that certainly is interest-sensitive related. So yes, the economy is booming. I still think the potential of the economy is excellent, as the president said, in 2026 should be a banner year, given these current trends we're seeing.
10:24Tim Seymour:So if the economy is booming, Joe, why is there a need to hand out$2 ,000 stimulus checks? And why is there the need to cut interest rates? If the economy is booming, shouldn't we be concerned about inflation? Well, yes, we inflation certainly an issue. It rose to a 40 year high under the prior administration. But what we're seeing, Melissa, this is a really a CapEx led boom. We're seeing a significant narrowing in the trade deficit. You will start to see more reindustrialization, more reindustrialization, more building here in the U.S. And those sort of booms tend to be very disinflationary. The yield curve is very flat.
11:02The real broad trade weighted dollar still at a very high level. Inflation expectations are very well contained. So certainly interest sensitive activity, which I alluded to, has been soft. That should recover if rates come down and rates should come down so that the economy could reach its full potential on the checks. I wouldn't categorize that as stimulus checks. That's money given to a hardworking men and women in the armed forces. This was done back in July. This isn't new information. It'll go a long way to helping them deal with cost of living increases.
11:34Tim Seymour:OK, so even though it's money given to some households, it is not going to be inflationary. Well, it's money. Yes, it is. It's an important amount. It's not an amount that is going to change the inflation dynamic. A bigger number, which is going to impact even a bigger swath of Americans, working class Americans, the no tax on tips and overtime. Those are basically supply side initiatives. If you're going to be encouraged to work more overtime, you're working hard for tips. You're going to work more. We have seen labor force participation edge higher. I think it will go up significantly more next year.
12:07So, again, that's not inflationary. That is more productive capacity, more labor coming into the market. That's what we saw in the first administration. And we should see it again. Supply side driven growth.
12:19Tim Seymour:So do you think that there is not any inflation problem, inflationary problems in the economy at this point? I mean, when Americans are facing higher health care costs and higher electricity costs and higher insurance costs, is there an inflation problem? Is the Fed too hung up on inflation? Well, inflation, you know, right now, inflation, the inflation rate right now is 2.7. It was a little higher than that the last month that Joe Biden was in office. Inflation, we believe, will go lower. Gasoline and energy, more broadly speaking, Melissa, is a very important disinflationary force because gasoline energy is using so many products.
13:00There are many second and third order effects. We do expect the inflation rate to move lower. The markets are certainly in agreement with that. As I mentioned, inflation expectations are very stable. We are seeing, if we look at blue collar wages, non-supervisory production workers through the first 11 months of this year, wages are up 1.6 % annualized. That is one of the biggest increases started new administration in decades. So the policies are trying to be designed to raise after tax incomes, lower the inflation rate, build up productive capacity and improve living standards. Right now, I say the record is very good.
13:34Nobody thought that I spoke to, even in the private sector, thought the economy could generate 4 percent type of growth two quarters in a row. And we know from the last CPI, which is November, because inflation data today are stale. We know from the November inflation data, inflation surprised meaningfully to the downside. So we hope these trends and believe these trends will continue. Joe, Tim, I'm not going to ask you to speak for the administration on the direction of the dollar, because typically administrations don't. Although, you know, my guess is they'd like to see a weaker dollar. And ultimately, the dynamic we're now all just talking about here on the inflationary side.
14:08Does that concern you as another ingredient in upward price pressure? Because the dollar was surprisingly strong, but central bank differentials, the ones you're espousing, which is a softer Fed here, really dictate that the dollar should go significantly lower. Well, Tim, this is the thing. If you look at the real broad traded dollar, not DXY, which overweights the euro by 50 percent plus, the real broad trade weighted dollar is very high. The Treasury Secretary is adamant, and this is key, that the U.S. remain its reserve currency and have its signature status globally. Markets will move around time, place to place.
14:46We get those volatilities. We've not seen any weakness from any dollar weakness impact import prices. Import prices, non-petroleum import prices are very soft. So there has not been an inflationary impulse from a dollar that's been softer vis-a-vis a few countries. and, of course, on the tariffs. We have not seen the tariff effect that everybody thought would be manifest. It just has not shown up yet, if at all. It probably never will.
15:11Tim Seymour:Do you think it never will, or do you think it's yet to come? I don't think it will. I mean, it just, well, I mean, again, since March, Melissa, the consensus has consistently overestimated inflation, and it did it just again last week. So, I mean, could it show up at some point? Maybe. I mean, a lot of things could happen. It doesn't mean they will. I don't expect it to happen. Again, here's the thing. If you're investing in technology and you've got capital expenditures growing and you've got booming productivity, non-financial corporate productivity rose over 5 % in the second quarter. It was up nearly 3.5 % year-on-year in Q2.
15:48You fast-forward to Q3, GDP was up massively. You're going to get another huge productivity number. Nominal GDP was up over 8%. You had a 13 %-plus increase year-on-year in stock prices. So the corporate profitability is there. What do we know in the past? You've got good corporate profitability. You've got rising CapEx. You've got deregulation, lower energy costs. That always leads to much faster hiring and rising real wages. So I think the outlook is great. And I think people are way too hung up on the inflation numbers we've had. The outlook will get much better.
16:22Tim Seymour:Joe, great to speak with you. Thank you. Happy holidays. Thank you. Merry Christmas, everybody. Merry Christmas. Joe LaVornia. I mean, are we just too hung up on inflation at this point? I don't think so. Well, it's not about me being hung up on it. I mean, if you listen to what people say, the majority of people in this country are hung up on it. They're feeling the pain. I mean, it's not this administration, this is a cumulative effect of many years. Listen to what Scott Besson said about the Fed. I mean, they've created this wealth gap, and inflation is really the culprit. So I don't think we're too hung up on it.
16:54In terms of the market, maybe a little bit. But I'll say this about the GDP number. Yeah, the headline number is great. The biggest component of it is health care costs. I don't think that's what you want as the biggest component of a GDP growth of that magnitude. And the reason another reason outside of tech being able to get back on its feet was CPI surprised to the downside with owners equivalent rent being lower than expected. Owners equivalent rent is only factored every six months. So we're going to get a good CPI for the next couple of months, which keeps the Fed in check, which keeps rates moving lower.
17:26Tim Seymour:All right. In the meantime, let's get to Bitcoin down again today and pacing for its third straight down month. The crypto now more than 30 percent off its record high. It's taking crypto treasury stocks along with its strategy down nearly 4 percent today. It is down more than 65 percent from its 52-week high. Take a look at some of the others. Bitmine Immersion, for instance, well off of their highs as well. What's going on here, do you think? Well, again, I would argue that the fundamental case for Bitcoin is well established and we're in a predictable range and a pullback. I think lever plays on Bitcoin are obviously struggling.
18:02And, you know, it's like any margin situation. You're certainly going a little bit of leverage on the way down can be extremely painful. I think the frothiness around an investor profile that tends to be a little bit higher volatility, not the strongest hands, is part of what you've also seen. in the associated cryptocurrencies. But buying weakness in Bitcoin is something to me that I think investors are supposed to be doing here.
18:27Tim Seymour:Are your clients buying weakness in Bitcoin? Yeah, I mean, Bitcoin isn't something that we use in our portfolio. But yes, I'm getting questions on this all the time. And I do think that my real Bitcoin bulls want to buy more of it every time it pulls back like this. So I think you're going to continue to see that in the retail trader. But I think a lot of this does have to do with kind of that risk-off trade. Like people are saying, okay, maybe I should move outside of tech. Bitcoin has a high correlation to that. And I think as people are going to look to rotate out to other sectors, I think that's what you're seeing here as well.
18:54Well, it's clear that the decoupling from gold and Bitcoin, I think we can put that to bed. I mean, gold is its own asset class. I think we're understanding that. And I'll say again, I think the market is going to test the average price that strategy owns their 670 ,000 Bitcoin, which is a little north of 75 ,000. And if and when that happens, I'm pretty convinced that you're going to get a risk off in the equity market because I do think there's a huge overlap of people that are in crypto and they're in the tech trade as well.
19:22Tim Seymour:Coming up, overseas opportunity in the new year. What Tim Seymour sees in store for international investing and where Wall Street stands on China next. Plus, Meta is the MAG7 name furthest off its all-time high, down more than 16 % from its record. But one firm says it may be time to buy the pullback. The details behind that call straight ahead. Don't go anywhere. fast when he's back in two. The world of business is constantly evolving and Comcast Business keeps you totally in step with secure AI-backed networking in more than 100 countries. They're powering over 90 % of the Fortune 500 and millions of small businesses.
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20:36Let us help you reimagine your enterprise. EY Parthenon. Solutions that work in practice, not just on paper. I want to grow the game of soccer and give every kid the chance to play. What would you like the power to do? Bank of America champion street soccer advocate Kyle Martino and is proud to be the official bank of U.S. soccer and FIFA World Cup 2026. Bank of America and A member FDIC.
21:03Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. Analysts at Baird today saying it may be time to buy Meta with the stock's recent weakness creating entry points for opportunistic buyers. The firm's seeing catalysts from better execution in AI as well as ramping monetization for WhatsApp and threads. Baird, though, did acknowledge short-term risks and lowered its price target$5 to$8.15. Do you like Meta here? You know, I think it definitely still has some headwinds ahead of it. And I think people are concerned with the AI spend. Like, that's why it clearly has not recovered from the highs that it had back in August.
21:33Tim Seymour:But I do think they're in their call here. They're saying that the pendulum has just swung too far to the negative. And I could buy that here where you're saying, OK, maybe it still has some headwinds, but have we just turned too negative on it? And if they can really use their AI to help their advertising monetization, and especially as you're seeing that on threads, you're seeing that on WhatsApp, I do think there is some upside that can be had. I don't know if that's immediately, but I understand that it is like a longer term call. And I think I could buy into that. Do we need, though, to see a change in the narrative in terms of the concern about CapEx spend in order for Meta in particular to turn around?
22:06I think so. And I think we've heard bits and pieces of that. I think they're also going to spend and do what they have to do, as we've seen. And at times that's been to the frustration of investors. And I just believe in the long haul here of both the earnings power, the peg ratio. So the price to the earnings growth here at Meta is something that I think is about as attractive as you're going to get in a stock this big. I was nibbling a little bit on some weakness for an account or two. I just think this is one where I'm buying a 10 percent off of a 25 percent pullback, and I can do that here.
22:38Market multiple makes more than makes sense, in my opinion. And to go back to February, look at the sell-off from February into April. That's the same magnitude sell-off we just saw from the recent all-time high until we saw a couple weeks ago. That subsequently made a new all-time high, and I think we're setting up now to make a new all-time high. They've become really good at throttling that expense, to your point about CapEx. But 98 % of revenues is ad dollars. Google, it's 75%. I think you're putting all of your eggs in one basket. If the economy doesn't do so well, first thing people do is cut back on ad spend.
23:11We've seen that with other companies, but I think it's more about the CapEx spend, whether they can find that middle ground that the investor base likes.
23:20Tim Seymour:There's a lot more Fast Money to come. Here's what's coming up next. International opportunities for 2026. Where Tim is putting money to work overseas in the new year. And what Wall Street sees in store for the China trade. Plus, an easy-to-swallow pill. The latest weight loss headlines tipping the scales in favor of Novo Nordisk. Could this be the start of a turnaround for the name? You're watching Fast Money, live from the NASDAQ market site in Times Square. We're back right after this.
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24:48Whether you're traveling for the matches or just listening along, we will take you somewhere surprising. New episodes all summer long, wherever you get your podcasts.
24:57Tim Seymour:I'm honored to make history and to make my community proud. Oh, what a brilliant tackle from Naomi Kerma. What would you like the power to do? Bank of America. Proud to be the official Bank of U.S. Soccer. Bank of America and a member FDSE. Welcome back to Fast Money City. Downgrading China today to neutral from overweight, setting a less favorable earnings revision environment in a lackluster macro picture. But the firm maintained an overweight on broader emerging markets. So, Tim, what does this mean for MIGA in the new year? Well, the setup for MIGA is the part of the show that we've already talked about, which is I think the dollar is your friend, meaning weaker dollar, which supports buying stuff in foreign currencies.
25:39and some will outperform others. I think a weaker Fed also emerging markets typically are very concerned around Fed hiking cycles. The other side is when the Fed's cutting historically, it's because there are problems globally with the economy. When you have a 4.3 percent print like this, this really means that growth countries with a more benign rate outlook and a weaker dollar, it's a great backdrop. I continue to think Europe is going to surprise in terms of EPS growth. Places across Europe, I talk about European money center banks all the time, But even some of the European staples, tobaccos like Imperial, but also British tobaccos.
26:13These are two names that are in Idevo, my international ETF. I think you've got a dynamic with European industrials. I love Siemens. I even like that for the data center trade. Some of the same trades that you are tracking investors, you being folks at home, are some of the same trades you can find around the world. You're just not as attuned to those plays. ASML, you like DRAM, four times moving spot. But this is one of the biggest players that actually has an order book that's going to be very strong. And I think you're buying some weakness here. So some of the same themes I want to play. Taiwan Semi is, we talk enough about that, everybody knows this is arguably the second most important semiconductor company in the world, which means it's arguably the second most important company in the world.
26:50These are all international trends. The backdrop is good where you have above trend growth and very benign dynamics with the Fed.
26:57Tim Seymour:So definitely a developed markets tilt as opposed to an emerging markets tilt. I think so. And I invest in so MSCI All World XUS, which is 75 percent developed, 25 percent emerging. I think that's your right mix. I don't think you have to reach too far out the risk curve to find great growth and a lot of dividend growth, superior dividend growth, in fact. Brazil, I look at, though, that's not I don't think it's developed. I think it's emerging still. But that's breaking out of a six year downtrend. If you look at a chart and if you want to be in materials, some bank, some energy, EWZ is a place to be.
27:28You got volley is a big component of it. I think if you like materials, you almost have to like Brazil. Yeah, that's what I was going to go with. You have to go with commodity-based countries. If the price is going up, they're going to do much better. And Brazil is outsized levered to commodities.
27:41Tim Seymour:Yeah, actually, you stole that point out of my mouth. Three of us. But yes, I think the commodities is something you want to look at, and that's going to benefit emerging markets. Most of our clients have been shocked to hear how well international is done. I don't think people are talking enough about that this year. And it's been outperforming the SPF 100. That's both developed and emerging markets. But I don't think that's a reason you want to get out of it, just because it had this one year of outperformance. It has underperformed for so many years. I think this is really just the start of it.
28:04Tim Seymour:And I think you absolutely want to be in that going into 2026. Is there still underinvestment? Absolutely. In international? Yeah. And so on a desk where we're stealing each other's ideas, Courtney didn't steal my ideas. She's nailed it. I mean, I think the underperformance of international is something that, you know, I believe in long-term mean reversion trades, that underperformance is turned. And, yes, they're underinvested. And a lot of people ask, what's my international weighting? I think 10 percent is light. 40 years ago, it was probably 40 percent international here. 20 years ago, it was probably the other part about it is also foreign investors bringing more of their money back home.
28:42Not because it's, you know, anti-U.S. sentiment. It's just the oxygen that was crowded out by the tech trade. That number is part of the reason that international markets are going to go higher.
28:50Tim Seymour:Coming up, Novo's Pill Pop, the struggling drugmaker, finally getting a win in the weight loss space. But can the stock regain its former glory? What one analyst sees in store for the name? When Fast Money returns. Missed a moment of fast? Catch us anytime on the go. Follow the Fast Money podcast. We're back right after this.
29:14Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. The S &P 500 setting a record close ahead of tomorrow's shortened Christmas Eve trading session. The Dow climbing about 80 points. The Nasdaq gaining more than half a percent. Shares of Lionsgate Studios jumping more than 7 % today. We spoke to Vice Chair Michael Burns yesterday on Fast Money, where he laid out why Lionsgate is well-positioned in the streaming landscape, calling the studio a benevolent arms dealer when it comes to content in the space. The stock is up 20 percent this year. Shares of a U.I. path higher after hours. The stock will replace Synovus Financial in the S &P Mid-Cut 400 index as of January 2nd.
29:46Tim Seymour:Our soon-to-be parent company, Versin Media, will join the small-cap index on January 6th. And GM Lower, the Wall Street Journal, reporting the company is investigating an airbag that exploded in a recall by unrepaired GMC Sierra truck. Did I mention I love small caps, by the way? Just, you know, always thought small caps were really important. Just kidding. I know. You just mentioned our parent company. I'm being a little sarcastic. Not about that. Index buyers is good for Versa and Media, our soon-to-be parent company. All right. Novo Nordisk shares popping more than 7 % today after the FDA approved the company's GLP-1 pill.
30:24Tim Seymour:News that we broke yesterday on Fast Money. The drug would be the first ever oral treatment for obesity. It's expected to be available starting in January for more on its first ever GLP-1 pill. Guggenheim partner Seamus Fernandez joins us now. He is the firm's managing director and pharma analyst. Seamus, great to have you with us. Nice to see you. Does this change the competitive landscape at all with Eli Lilly's OR4 coming on and some other competitors coming down the pike? That's a great question. I mean, I think it doesn't necessarily change the competitive landscape that dramatically, but it does give Novo an opportunity to gain a foothold in the pill market that's going to develop, we expect, very quickly.
31:05It really depends on how much Novo can supply of Wegovi pill, which I think is still a little bit uncertain. So that's something that we think the company is going to need to clarify with investors, broadly speaking. But, you know, there is a very substantial opportunity for any pill to basically expand in this market. And we think both Wegovi pill and Lily's Orphaglipron are going to be successful in growing the market.
31:35Tim Seymour:They've already started manufacturing North Carolina, and they made a point that it's going to be end-to-end, the active ingredient will be manufactured at that North Carolina plant. Is there a question in your mind about the ability of Novo to manufacture to meet demand? I mean, it is a more complicated molecule than Orpherglypron to manufacture. So do you think that there is a question mark? So it's slightly more complicated to manufacture. But I think the other factor here is also that there's a lot more product necessary to actually put into this pill in order for it to be as effective as an injectable.
32:11So I think that's the factor that's really kind of coming into play here is that you almost need 70 times as much of the molecule to actually go into the gut so that it can cross into the circulation where an injectable actually just gets sort of right into your system and works very, very quickly and very effectively.
32:35Tim Seymour:There are also some constraints in terms of when you take the pill during the day, how much water you can have, when you can then take other medication or have other food, et cetera. Is this just going to be sort of a test? I mean, when consumers try this and then Orfaglipron comes on the market shortly, are they just going to switch in the end? I mean, how much is this really Novo Nordis' ability to gain back some of the market share? It may have lost to Eli Lilly. Yeah, I think that's the ultimate test this year. In 2026, I think we're really going to know and learn what consumers actually prefer.
33:15Do they prefer a very easy pill to take that could be slightly less well-tolerated? I think those are the outstanding questions at this point. Lilly does have a great experience with its own Lilly Direct. And so I think Lilly has shown its ability to market to the consumer very, very effectively. This is actually Novo's test this year to see if they can kind of live up to the expectations and live up to the path that Lilly has to some degree laid with their own Lilly direct availability.
33:53Tim Seymour:What do you think Novo Nordisk should do to improve its pipeline? It tried very hard to get MetSara, was not successful. Lilly has a much deeper obesity pipeline. It's got other drugs also for other indications. What do you think Novo needs to do? Yeah, it's a critical question at the end of the day. I think they are moving as quickly as possible to develop their obesity and diabetes portfolio. In all honesty, we're in writing saying this. We think that they should expand beyond that, frankly, and move into other areas as well. Just being focused exclusively in obesity and diabetes, I think, can be problematic.
34:34It's not that the company doesn't have other areas that they have products in, but those tend to be rare and much smaller opportunities. Cardiovascular disease, other areas like that, as well as potentially advancing a small molecule that can be manufactured at scale globally for hundreds of millions of patients. is kind of the next step along the way to, I think, Novo regaining some of the luster that it had in the last two years.
35:08Tim Seymour:So basically, it needs to do a transformative acquisition, is what you're saying, in 2026. I wouldn't go that far. I don't think we've said that specifically. But I think they need to build out their pipeline, both in diabetes and obesity, and then also potentially in other adjacent areas like cardiovascular disease where it fits actually quite well. Okay. Seamus, great to see you. Thank you so much. Seamus Fernandez of Guggenheim. You own it. How are you feeling about Novo now? Well, I think it's Lily's battle to lose here on oral. But I do think this is an important step. The stock reflected that today.
35:49And I think the other part of this discussion is there is some slowing in growth, maybe even giving ground to some of the compounders. And both companies have said it's kind of hard to convert some of these folks at some point. So I think that's good news for Nova. I think the expectations on growth have been so level set here because it's not going to be pretty in the fourth quarter numbers that come out. So I'd like to believe we've got that in the price. I do think, again, go back to kind of your global investing. I mean, this is one of the largest companies in Europe, if not the largest, or it certainly was recently.
36:22It's a case where I just think the expectations have to have been level set. That transformative transaction, I don't know that it needs to happen to move the stock higher, though, and I think the stock can. Last night when it broke, I mean, I thought given the sell-off the stock has had since June of 24, this to me should have been a 15 % to 20 % move. This is a headline that I think people are waiting for. It was up 7 % today, which is something, but not nearly as robust as I would have thought. We'll see how it trades next week. But the other names Tim mentioned, like if you look at Merck, highest closing price in a while, Bristol breaking out, and these biotech tit names we talk about still doing well.
36:58Tim Seymour:Coming up, a new year swoosh. The next move for Nike is shares trade near eight-month lows. What Wall Street's biggest bull season store for the beaten-down retailer when Fast Money returns?
37:13Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. Shares of Nike down nearly 13 % since it gave disappointing guidance during its earnings call last Thursday. The stock has lost almost a quarter of its value this year. But Oppenheimer ranks the athletic wearmaker a top play for 2026. And its$120 price target is the highest on the street. This according to Faxet. Oppenheimer senior analyst Brian Nagel is behind that call. He joins us now. Brian, great to see you. Nice to see you, too. What did you hear on the earnings call that makes you think that it's the top pick for next year? Well, look, I mean, I think, you know, for me, the biggest positive here with Nike, and I mean, recognizing this is a very large company undertaking a turnaround, but I think the biggest positive is that where this management team has focused, they're seeing success.
37:56So if you dig through all those results, and they highlighted this on their call and in their results, but what you've basically seen is much better wholesale growth in North America. You know, that's being driven by now a clean marketplace. But more importantly, the new products they've introduced, particularly in the running categories in some other areas. Now, China is still weak. There's still weakness outside of North America. DTC is still weak. But again, for me, what really counts here, what gives me confidence in this call into 2026, is where the management team has focused, they are seeing success.
38:30And I think that focus will just keep basically cycling through this enterprise. And at some point, the whole thing will be working.
38:36Tim Seymour:The new shoes do seem to be resonating, Brian. I'm just curious, though, if you assume that China is going to continue to be weak, which I think a lot of people do assume. I mean, can Nike still have that turnaround ex-China? No, that's a great question. I think the answer is yes. OK, I mean, China is obviously important to Nike. It's important for Nike's longer term growth prospects. But there's a lot of opportunity here within this very big company to turn around while China may still be languishing. Now, all that said, if you go back to the comments that CEO L.A. Hill made on the conference call last week, they're basically enacting a North America-style turnaround in China.
39:16Now, it doesn't mean it's going to happen overnight. But I think the positive here is they know how to do it. Again, clean out the marketplace, introduce better innovation that resonates with consumers. So they have the playbook. It's going to take a while. But look, I think Nike can there's a lot of areas that can continue to turn around here before China's fixed. Brian, it's Tim. I tend to agree with you on the view here. I guess I'm a little surprised at the price target, which where you put that into an either an EPS profile or a multiple. Why do you need to be at 120? Because that, you know, I'm not sure where you have your target on 26 EPS.
39:50But the math says that it's north of 50. Am I wrong on that? Because, again, I'm bullish, but I don't see the EPS turnaround as quickly as your share target suggests. Yeah. So we tend to at Oppenheimer, we tend to set our price targets with a 12 to 18 month horizon. OK, so that's what we consider in our terms are kind of intermediate, maybe even longer term target. So that's how that's kind of the time frame I'm looking for me. I think the components here, one, earnings are very depressed. So what we've seen, Nike has struggled. They had the wrong product. Consumers, to a certain extent, turned away from the brand.
40:31So that was an earnings, the sales and earnings negative. But more recently, there's been a lot of this repositioning effort. So like I mentioned a moment ago, Nike's very aggressively cleared old product. There's been a cost associated with that. And then more recently than that, you've had tariffs. And I think it's a very interesting conversation because what Nike is basically saying is that the tariffs will cost them$1.5 billion. Right now, they're not offsetting those tariffs. So that$1.5 billion is basically weighing upon profitability. Over the next year, year and a half, Nike will work to offset those tariffs.
41:10But what that all basically means is if you look at earnings right now for Nike, they're depressed. OK, now when I think about that price target, I think what you're going to see is earnings go from depressed to normalized over time. And basically the markets start to really respect the longer term earnings power of this model and apply a healthy multiple to that. And that's basically how I get to that 120 target. Brian, you've done an excellent job on the numbers. But for the last five years, the stock has been in a declining trend line. And Elliott only wears it for the last year. Do you think that on sentiment they need a new CEO?
41:46I love Elliott, but he's been there forever. Do you think they need a moment like like Lulu had? No, I mean, look, to be clear, I mean, I think Elliott's the right guy. OK, and, you know, just to basically frame it for the audience, you know, Elliott is a lifelong Nike employee. He left. He retired. OK, he came back roughly a year ago. I think you said this, you know, to kind of to run the company. Everything I can tell, he's absolutely the right guy. He knows the company. He knows the brand. He's beloved within the organization. And frankly, I've been quite impressed with how quickly things have started to turn under his guidance.
42:24Now, again, like I said at the onset of this segment, this is a big company. We're talking$50 billion, operations in 190 countries. It's going to take time. But look, I think Elliott's actually so far been really successful in this turnaround. reps.
42:38Tim Seymour:Brian, great to get your thoughts. Thank you. Brian Nagel of Oppenheimer. Courtney, would you dip into Nike here? You know, I do think when they came out with their earnings, I think the fact that they did have like a 9 % sales growth here in North America was very positive. So that was obviously very overshadowed by what's happening in China. But I can believe that a turnaround is starting to happen here. So again, I don't think this is a short-term story. And I don't know if I think you brought this up, but I think it might be a higher price target than I would probably put it at. But I can't believe here there's some upside.
43:06It's still a 60 multiple. Like, go out 18 months. I mean, they haven't made three bucks a share anytime recently. It's expensive. Competition is fierce in this space. I mean, they're behind the eight ball. It's a lot like Lululemon, as Steve just pointed out. The good news is, you finally saw that bounce in Lululemon. I think that's what you hope. The business isn't fixed, but the stock bounce. You're hoping for the same in Nike.
43:29Tim Seymour:Coming up, bourbon on the rocks. The whiskey troubles hitting spirit makers and whether the industry can bounce back amid slowing demand. More fast money in two.
43:43Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. Shares of Jack Daniels maker Brown Forman dropping more than 5 % today as the whiskey industry faces slowing demand as well as lingering impacts from tariffs. Rival Jim Bean, which is owned by Japan's Suntory, putting production on ice and shutting down its Kentucky distillery for a year. Spirits makers down around 30 % in 2025. Tim, you've been in and out of this trade. Yeah, I think is Diageo maybe the D in Bant? I don't know. Is it? I don't know. Someone needs to remind me in Angle the Cliffs. I don't run from my acronym because at least I play the game correctly, even if I don't do that well sometimes.
44:21Diageo has been disappointing. So it's a combination of a little bit of market share erosion, clearly some trends going on on consumption on alcohol, especially in younger demographics. Clearly some foreign aspirational buying. I think this is the number one spirits company in the world, and I think you can own it here, but I'm not sure what changes. I'm not sure what changes in the short term. Yeah. You have to migrate. If you look at Bud, they make the ready-to-drink cocktails. So if you've noticed that whenever you go to a party in the cooler or on the bar, there's always a ready-to-drink cocktail that's already pre-mixed.
44:55You guys haven't had that? Sounds disgusting. Someone hands me a ready-to-drink cocktail at their party.
44:59Tim Seymour:The stock is up 28%. I'm not taking that. You can't put seltzer into alcohol. You can, but it cuts down when you have a bunch of people at the party. So, hey, by the way, I'm just talking about facts. Bud's up 27%. Diageo got slaughtered in the market. If you sell, this new generation does not drink the alcohol that we drank. It's a different change. Up next, Final Trades.
45:35Tim Seymour:Before we get to final trades, we have a quick holiday surprise. Our friends over at Jolly Rancher sent us some holiday treats. Look at this. Nice gift baskets. This is from Andrew Archambault, President, U.S. Confection. Sweet job. Sweet job. I mean, come on. First of all, very sweet, pun intended. Also, I have to tell you, the turn in Hershey's is interesting here. North America's recovered. I'm not just saying that because there's some sweet stuff next to me. I kind of like this one. Yeah, the gummies are good. Final trade time, Tim. Yeah, I guess not a good time for me to have Novo Nordisk as my final trade.
46:10But guess what? Here we are. Novo.
46:12Tim Seymour:Courtney. We talked about Copper. I think Freeport-McMoran is a name to take a look at here. Steve. Boeing, it's been working. I'm looking for another 20 % to the upside. Guy, what's kicking your ear first? Looking forward to seeing you next week, Mel. This is a big week. I'm off. I'll be on tomorrow morning, though. On the Squawk Box. On the Squawk on the street. Six to nine. Great show. On the Squawk on the street. I mean, come on. This is a Hershey company. I mean, this is a fail. Do you have a final trade, sir? You know what? Yes, I believe there would be Cleveland Cliffs. That comes out of CLF, Melissa.
46:38Tim Seymour:All right. Thank you for watching Fast Money. Merry Christmas. Let's celebrate Mad Money for us right now.
47:00Tim Seymour:any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Fast Money disclaimer, please visit CNBC.com forward slash Fast Money disclaimer. I want to grow the game of soccer and give every kid the chance to play. What would you like the power to do?
47:32Bank of America champion street soccer advocate Kyle Martino and is proud to be the official bank of U.S. soccer and FIFA World Cup 2026. Bank of America and a member FDIC.
From the publisher
The S&P 500 closing at a fresh record high, as commodities come along for the ride. If the metal moves in Gold, Silver, and Copper can keep rocking into the new year, and how this morning’s strong GDP report will impact the Fed’s next rate decision. Plus Shares of Novo Nordisk on the move as the pharma company’s weight loss pill gets approved by the FDA. How the decision can tip the scales for Novo, and what one analyst sees in store for the weight loss drug space.
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