Stocks Bounce On DC Movement On Shutdown… And Bargain Hunting In Weakness 11/7/25

0:02Live in the Nasdaq market site in the heart of New York City's Times Square this is fast money Here's what's on tap tonight. A major reversal. Stocks rebounding from steep losses with the S &P and Dow actually climbing into the green. The news out of Washington that got markets off the mat. And how long can the optimism last? And the holidays are just around the corner with stocks off their highs. We tasked the traders to put together their stock shopping list. We'll bring you the names they are hoping to find under the tree this year. Plus, we dig in on Bitcoin's bounce from four-month lows. Investors lose their appetite for restaurant stocks.

0:33And we may have just crowned a World Series champion. But we are ready, already warming up for a bullpen for next season. One top financial advisor is here with a fast pitch on a home improvement name. She'll lay out the case later this hour. I'm Melissa Lee. Come to you live from Studio B at the NASDAQ. On the desk tonight, Tim Seymour, Karen Feinerman, Bono and Eisen, and Steve Rosso. We start off with markets rebounding off the lows of the session. Democrats offering to end the government shutdown in exchange for an extension of the health care tax credit. But Republicans aren't fighting just yet.

1:02Emily Wilkins is live in D.C. with the very latest. Emily. Hey, Melissa. Well, yes, Democrats did come back today with what they are pitching as a new offer, saying they will help vote, help Republicans vote to restart and reopen the government if they can just get a one year extension on those tax credits that have been keeping those health care premiums low. Here's what Senator Chuck Schumer had to say on the floor today. That is what many of our Republican colleagues have floated over the last six weeks is a compromise, a one year tax credit extension and reforms to the credit beyond that. We will agree with the Republican request not to start negotiations until after the government reopens.

1:48Now, this has been met with almost uniform across the board opposition from Republicans. Senate Majority Leader John Thune called the offer unserious. We've also had a number of other Republicans who have said that this is just a nonstarter. It's not something they can agree with. Meanwhile, the president weighing in on Truth Social with President Trump posting that the United States Senate should not leave town until they have a deal to end the Democrat shutdown. He goes on, if they can't reach a deal, the Republicans should terminate the filibuster immediately and take care of our great American workers.

2:23Now, at this point, it's not clear that Republicans are going to be ending the filibuster. I spoke with many of them this week. It just doesn't seem like the support is there yet for that. And at the same point, it's not clear if they're going to be sticking around this weekend. They just tried another vote to pay workers who are currently working. Of course, Democrats have opposed that in the past because they also want furloughed federal workers to be able to be paid. It's not clear if we're going to have any votes this weekend. And it's still an open question of how long it is going to take to reopen the government.

2:53At this point, it seems like it could easily go into next week. And, of course, there are a whole bevy of other programs and pay periods that are coming up that would have pain on the American people if they are going to be missed. Not to mention, of course, everything we are seeing at the airports right now. Guys? Yep. Emily, thank you. Emily Wilkins. And yet this was the reason, one of the reasons why tech seemed to climb from down 2 % easily. There's no question in terms of once we started getting these headlines from Washington, we started to see the reversal in the S &P. It was probably 90 S &P points from its low to the close.

3:28It was one and a half percent. VIX dropped, I don't know, 15 or so percent throughout the day. And it's just it's interesting. You know, we have all said I'm sure I've said it five times since this government shutdown, that the shutdown wasn't really have a big impact on markets and blah, blah, blah. As we've we've bled further into this longest shutdown in U.S. history. And there's everyone should feel really proud about that right now on both sides. But it's a case where we have certainly some sense that it is having an impact. We saw we had Michigan numbers. We had consumer confidence numbers today that were awful, that were the second lowest on record.

4:02Some of the dynamics we've heard this month in terms of the challenger job data, which was the second worst October in 20 years. I mean, these numbers are starting to to paint a little bit of a picture. I don't think it's a picture to fall out of bed. And it's interesting also from a sentiment perspective. There's a lot of people at the end of the day that are back to this. oh, boy, I can't believe I missed that bottom in NVIDIA today or something like that. I think the dip buyers are still out there. I think the froth that was in the market is the cliche here is we took some of the froth off.

4:30We hear that all the time. We did take some of the froth out. I don't think anything different happened this week for the fundamental story of markets, even though the Fed is out there telling you they might be a little bit more hawkish. What was this rebound all about, Grasso? Yeah, well, I think it's about the government getting back to work. I think it's about some of the froth being taken off. I don't know if there's enough froth that has really come off, but I think this is a decaying option on the government shutdown. They are going to open the government back up. It's not if it's when. So does it happen next week?

5:02I think you got the elections done. So I think that was a major thing. They wanted to stay closed during the election so it gives people something to pound the table about. So I think now that we're done with the elections, the closer we are to getting the government back open, it's probably going to look ugly, uglier for the next week, but it will get back open. Yeah. Badawan? I tend to agree. I mean, in terms of what was the headline that led us to kind of reverse back higher, it clearly was what was coming out of Washington. I mean, what has been going on for the last several weeks clearly wasn't that, clearly wasn't leading us to some resolution.

5:36and perhaps this new option, I see nothing but upside because we had seen where we were stuck previously. I will argue that I really don't understand why we had sold off so precipitously in the first place. I mean, some of the headlines say things like Amazon was down 5 percent. But if you look at Amazon over a two-week period, Amazon went from 220 to 255 on the back of earnings. Fine, it pulled back to 240. But to frame that in a way that we're in this deep sell-off, I think is a bit of a misnomer. And I think once you started actually parsing through some of the data, we mentioned earlier on the call today, 85 percent of companies that have reported have beat.

6:11And you still see concentration in terms of beating in industrials, in financials, in community, sorry, in IT. So the earnings reports still spoke to a strong market. And being that we have a derp of information coming from Washington and we're missing some of this more public information, all we have to go off of is earnings. And those continue to be quite strong. So I think, yes, some froth came out of the market. But the truth of the matter is, I'm not sure we should have been there in the first place. I mean, if the froth came out, then do we believe that the worries about AI spending and how much is being spent and the return on investment, the ability to fund that investment through the debt markets, has that all then gone away?

6:53No, I don't think so. Yeah. Yeah, it seems like way too big of an issue to be resolved from Tuesday, right, or whenever that started. So this, to me, was not a buy the dip. You know, we had our midday call, looked a little different. The market looked different then than it does now. Von Wynn was, you know, getting somewhat optimistic, right? But to me, this is not a buy the dip because this isn't a dip, to your point, right? This is like if you, like, back up and look at this in a long-term view of what's happened to these stocks and you squint a little, you don't even see what happened in the last week.

7:28So there's things I want to buy. I always talk about looking at the VIX and that as, you know, the fear index part of it. This is at 19 and change. At the highest, it was, what, 22, almost 23 maybe? That's not high enough for a buy-the-dip kind of panic. And that's what I would like to do, like to see, rather, before I add. So, yeah, even though the market, you know, moved up nicely, I didn't. So for all the hand-wringing this week, is there more hand-wringing to come? Or was this it? Was this the sort of moment where we sort of get concerned? We had Meta. Meta is still being punished for its forecast of spending next year.

8:06Was this it? No, it wasn't it. But it sounds like we've got a bunch of bulls on the desk here. I'm not putting bulls in their mouths, but I do think. I said that. I didn't think enough froth came off. The imagery. Okay. So it sounds like, again, Steve might think things could get a little – whatever. I'm not making everybody's market call here because what I think is that people want to buy the dip. And on a sense today, when we didn't get another two, like a washout into the close would have been, I think, exciting for a lot of market participants who want to buy stuff a little bit lower, but they want to buy it.

8:36They don't want to, you know, they don't want to not buy it. And, you know, I've got clients that want to put money into the market and there's dynamics around that. It was an 80 percent update. So it tells you kind of how we closed the week. It was also a week where, you know, you had today, especially you had that resounding at least one day bounce off of that 50 day. You've wanted to see that's held every time since April. So as we go into next week, I think it's, you know, especially if Washington can follow suit, I think the setup. But we all know we can't wait for NVIDIA, even though if there's a company that's given you more announcements between the last earnings period and this one, it's NVIDIA.

9:12I mean, we keep getting updates. We, you know, we heard about Blackwell and Hopper. We heard about with 26 shipments are going to be even better. But I'm not worried about those numbers. I'm actually not even worried about the market being set up too high for them. Are you? No, but listen, I think two things can be true at the same time. Yes, there's froth in the market. Where in the market? I think it's pretty far out the risk spectrum. And if you continue to see statements like we saw from AI, which open AI rather, which perhaps suggest that they want government backing or should have government backing, I think that is what gives the market some shakes.

9:47And I don't think that that shaking should be happening within Microsoft and NVIDIA. I think that that shaking should be happening pretty far out along the curve, the snowflakes, the more quantum related stocks. I'm sure, Steve, I'm not sure if you agree there or not. But I think we need to kind of separate the two. You can still have confidence in the market and also agree that there is froth therein. It's really a rotation story. And what's happening is when you start to see the names that have been winners for the past 12, 24 months start to roll over, clearly you're going to get margin squeezed out of those names.

10:19And so those might be, when we say dips, those might be small dips, but those might present the only opportunity that you have to get into those names. I'm not by any means suggesting that you should go throwing money at tertiary names. I'm saying when you see pullbacks that are because of headline risks that have nothing to do with fundamentals and the core stocks that have led us to our highs, you should be looking at least at putting a shopping list together to get into those at discounts. What are what are the fundamental? I mean, isn't it concerns about spending? I mean, how do we separate?

10:51You know, you have the government shutdown dynamic today that lifted all stocks into the close. Right. So you have that headline. Right. But at the same time, when you say fundamentals, what are the fundamentals of being of the earnings? The fundamentals are the earnings? The fundamentals are they are spending a lot. The fundamentals are we don't know what they are going to get in return for that spending. So that's my problem. I'm looking at CapEx. So CapEx in 2025 was$350 billion or thereabouts 2025. They're forecasting for$500 billion in 2026. The market needs$500 billion or more. Is that going to happen?

11:25So if we look at the GDP numbers, all the GDP growth or 92 % of the GDP growth was AI spend. That, to me, accounts for 4 % of total GDP being AI spend. That's more than railroads. That was more than the telecom bust. It's more than ever. That can't be sustainable. Well, let's turn to this week's Tech Tumbled, and ASAC dropping more than 3 % since Monday, notching its worst week since Liberation Day. Some of this year's hottest AI trades leading the losses, Oracle dropping almost 9 % since Monday, fully erasing the gains from its 35 % post-earnings pop. Palantir, AMD, and Qualcomm lower after their results.

12:02NVIDIA down 7%. Its earnings less than two weeks away. Our next guest thinks, though, tech stocks can still rip higher by 8 % to 10 % into year-end. Dan Ives is Wedbush's global head of technology research. He joins us now. Dan, great to have you with us. Great to be here. We mentioned some of those names, the high flyers, Oracle, the Palantir, AMD. I want to go to Meta, though, because Meta seems to be an interesting sort of example of this question that investors are really asking themselves in terms of what they're getting for that AI spend, the prognostication of we're going to spend a lot of money and it's time to spend money because we've got to seize the opportunity.

12:39But they're not really giving investors a roadmap as to how they're going to reap the returns on this investment. Is Meta an outlier or is this going to be the example that we look back on and think the whole sector is going to be held to this standard at some point? Look, I think Meta is a bit of an outlier just because, you know, obviously how dramatically more they're going to spend on CapEx and what happened to numbers going into next year. But in my opinion, Meta is a table pounder here and I think below 600 because it's my view. They're transforming this business over the coming years. Zuckerberg right now, wartime CEO.

13:19I get, you know, fretting about everything that's happening here. But this is an AI arms race. And I continue to view it as you want to see them spend because you're talking about the earnings growth over the coming years is going to be massive. That's why they're spending. Dan, it's Karen. Thanks for being on. Thanks for wearing that outfit. It's always good to see what you're wearing. So Meta, which is a big position for me, so it's been a painful week or two. The promise of what the spend is. We know that their business, that they've been able to use AI in their business and the product they're able to deliver to advertisers has really been that's working.

13:56But the part that we don't know is the llama spend. And we do know they get some revenue sharing. Maybe you could tell me how significant that is. But that's that's still a big question mark. What do you think the return on this, whatever they're going to spend, 100 plus billion next year? What does it need to be? Look, I think the return ultimately is going to be multiples of what they're spending over the coming years because they're going to change their whole advertising model. You look at the monetization of 3 billion users, that's what they're focused on. I mean, I think that is the smart move because the meta today is going to be a whole different meta over the coming years.

14:34Even when you look at the further monetization that you're going to see from the hardware perspective and software, they're building out a new ecosystem. And I think that's where, of course, the winners, the clear ones, NVIDIA, AMD, chip makers, everyone else. But you look what's happened, Microsoft here. I think that is it's another table pounder under 500 because, in my view, the enterprise backyard will be Redmond's. And this is one where I think the market is sort of misread or maybe nervousness in terms of what we're seeing. Dan, you're pounding a lot of tables. In fact, the kitchen shaking or the dining room shaking, the one in your notes that I'm most interested in hearing about is maybe not surprising to people that watch our show is Apple.

15:20And you've come kind of two or three different visits to us from being very concerned about that moment and act fast. And you turned to being bullish last time and now seemingly more bullish. Explain that. And, yeah, I'm pounding the table on the hoodie as well. Yeah, it's great to see the tail pound. And part of it, but even just thinking a step back, is that it's my view we're still in the second inning, maybe third inning of AI revolution, right? So that's why I continue to view these tech names where they're heading. When it goes to Apple, look, the whole thing that changed once Google won the DOJ suit, that opened what I believe the yellow brick road for Apple to go aggressive Google Gemini on the AI partnership.

16:04And I think that's really the consumer AI revolution is going to go through Apple. That's$75 to$100 per share as it all plays out. Then iPhone 17 being the surprise upgrade cycle, numbers will continue to go higher. And it goes back six months ago, New York City cab drivers bearish in Apple. And that continues to be the name you want to own. When does a shakeout happen, Dan, in these names? I mean, if you look back at the Internet boom, there were companies that participated in the boom and then got shaken out when things sort of rationalized. Are we going to see that moment in this boom, or is it just pound the table, pound the table, pound the table?

16:40It just doesn't seem no, right? No, I think you're going to see the shakeout. I mean, the shakeout's going to be clear because you could say AI 15 times in a conference call doesn't make an AI name. It needs to be execution. You know, Palantir will sell off. But you look at those numbers, that was a masterpiece quarter in terms of everything that they're executing on. Companies that don't execute, you see these are stocks that will be down 30%, 40%. I think 2026, it's going to separate the winners. We talk about the AI winners from what could be the losers or the fakes. And I think that's the opportunity to stock pickers market when it comes to AI.

17:17I think that's really the theme here. So 2026, I'll be watching. Dan, thank you. Great to see you. Dan Ives. Do you think we'll see that shake out? Yeah, I mean, I think you're going to have to see that shake out. But the problem is the ones with the deepest pockets are the ones that manipulate the market. I don't want to use that term, but they push the market, drive the market, not manipulate. So it's very difficult for the market to get shaken out from those hands. Tesla he didn't bring up. Pound on the table on Palantir, Microsoft, Meta, and Apple. Tesla is his biggest call, I believe. And it's not even about technology.

17:52It's not about robo-taxi. It's about humanoid robots now. It's about AI. And those are robots. Those cars are robots. So people think about humanoid and robots, two different things. I think he wouldn't disagree with me if I said that Tesla from this point forward is probably one of his biggest calls. Meantime, crypto also bouncing off its lows. Bitcoin getting back below 100 ,000 today, but bouncing back with the broader markets. Other tokens, Ethereum, Solana, Ripple seeing even bigger gains, though all are down for this week. Bonwin, what'd you make of this rebound? Not surprising given the market turnaround, but have we seen sort of a, not only want to say the worst of it, but.

18:33No, I am with Karen. I would like to see the VIX higher before I throw out my hand and say, OK, let's back up the truck. I think what you saw in terms of crypto was risk off. There was a couple of comments. I mean, Steve made some interesting comments around quantum and their ability to kind of, you know, cause ripple effects. Not to not no pun intended within within Bitcoin and the whole crypto space. But I also think it's part of the fact that stable coins have. I mean, Kathy Woods made this point. Stable coins have created some wind suck out of the air sales for this whole crypto universe in terms of adoption internationally.

19:12And so I think that's that's something there. Also, I don't think you've seen gold kind of rebound yet. And I think gold might be somewhat of a canary in a coal mine in terms of seeing a true scared flight to quality. And when I start to see that strong reversal, that'll probably be my my cue to get more aggressive. I agree. I thought the Cathie Wood thing was interesting. And, you know, she still has a very, very optimistic target for Bitcoin. But I feel like it was all just part of the same general frothy trade kind of. You know, that it's hood and crypto and, you know, the quantum computing and that they're all moving together.

19:51Whether or not they're related, I feel like is irrelevant. I feel like the correlation is getting higher and higher. There was a hack in Bitcoin about a week or so ago. I think 120 million or so was stolen out of out of wallets. That didn't add any confidence to the infrastructure of crypto. But what you're starting to see now are whales coming in actually buying crypto. And that happened yesterday. So you're starting to see this little bit of a bounce. I'm with Bono in. I think you could see further downside. But this seems like the right level where both Ethereum and Bitcoin probably should bounce back.

20:26I'm surprising myself with a view that I think of all the things that have sold off a lot here. Well, I mean, get ready, Tim. Is Bitcoin. I think Bitcoin is I'd have the most confidence in stepping in buying Bitcoin here. given where I think the asset sits both in the near and the long term and really just structural dynamics. You know, Bitcoin demand is not going to get less. And we all know about the supply side. So, you know, I'm not surprised with the froth, but I think this was interesting. Coming up, a travel nightmare. Sweeping flight cancellations taking effect at 40 of the nation's busiest airports.

20:59What to expect as the government shutdown threatens the holiday travel season next? But first, not so sweet green. The salad chain getting chopped on Lean Guidance, but the latest commentary from the restaurant industry is telling us right after this.

21:16This is Fast Money with Melissa Lee, right here on CNBC.

21:30Welcome back to Fast Money. Sweet green in the sweet red. That's terrible. The salad bowl chain dropping 7.5 % after missing sales and earnings estimates and cutting guidance. The company's seeing particular weakness among younger diners. It and other chains like Cava and CMG Chipotle are down double digits over the last two weeks. For more on these trends, let's bring in Kate Rogers. Kate. Hi, Melissa. You said it was a tough quarter for Sweetgreen. Same-store sales fell 9.5%. Companies saying they were flat in September and October, running now at low double-digit drops. Sweetgreen CEO John Neiman saying last night on the earnings call, I think it's pretty obvious that the consumer is not in a great place overall.

22:09You talked about younger consumers. They're eating less at Sweetgreen and Cava and Chipotle, all three named seeing big declines this week and on the year. Another takeaway so far from this quarter, lower-income consumers pulling away from quick service chains. McDonald's CEO noting a bifurcated consumer with lower-income traffic across the sector down double digits. A similar pullback taking place at Wingstop, But then upper-income consumers were visiting some of those QSR chains more. Starbucks and Dutch Bros, though, bucking that trend with younger consumers. Starbucks building momentum in its back-to-Starbucks plans with U.S.

22:43comps flat, but positive so far in September and October. More than half of their customer base, remember, Gen Z and millennials. And then finally, Dutch Bros CEO Christine Barone saying, quote, we're seeing really incredible performance out of those younger cohorts. So as I said earlier in the day, it's been really hard to just draw one theme away from this quarter because it's kind of all over the place with the consumer. We're saying they're cautious and a little bit confusing for us to read between the lines. But generally speaking, a little bit more cautious. And I would say picking and choosing where it's worth it for them to spend their money right now, Melissa.