Stocks Drop As Iran Conflict Lingers On… And Latest Punch To Private Credit 3/12/26

17:27Tim Seymour:If deflation is a concern here in the United States, Subhagra, what is the concern, if any, outside of the United States where there are countries that are much more hurt by higher energy costs and we'll see that in inflation in a much bigger way? And I know you're not necessarily a global strategist, But, you know, as it pertains to the relative trade with the United States. I work for a French bank. I look at global bond yields all the time. Perfect. So, I mean, if you look at what's happening overseas with, you know, with bond yields, as well as all the other counterparts, you know, both the U.K.

18:00as well as, you know, the the in Australia and New Zealand, you are starting to see yields rise. If anything, treasuries are outperforming relative to all of the other global bond yields. And in the case of the ECB, what was really interesting the last couple of weeks is we were pricing in for cuts and now we're pricing in for hikes. That's just been a kind of a seismic shift in policy. Can that happen here? That's where I think it gets a little tricky. And it's a very good question, Melissa, because I am not in the camp that the Fed is going to flip to hikes. There are some members in the committee that in the last minutes, if you read through the minutes, they are favoring or amenable to hiking.

18:41But that's still a, you know, I'm just not ready to make that leap yet. All right. Subhajra, thank you. Thank you.

18:49Tim Seymour:Subhajra Rajapa, you know, who wrote about it this afternoon, BNP Paribas, saying that there's a significant underappreciated tail risk that FOMC moves towards symmetric policy bias, which is equal chances of hike or cut. Markets doing a forum, though, right before our eyes, right?

19:04Melissa Lee:And I think that's something you continue to have to watch. Tim mentioned the stronger dollar. I don't know if it's on the flight to quality stronger dollar or something else going on, but it doesn't matter because it's here, and that's something else the administration doesn't want. So you've got rising yield, stronger dollar, no bueno, a market that's under pressure, oil prices we talk about now relentlessly. I mean, there's a lot of things to try to navigate here, and I'll throw one more in. The HYG, which we rarely talk about because there's no reason to talk about it because it typically just flatlines.

19:33Melissa Lee:Over the last couple of weeks, finally, you're starting to see some cracks there. It's worth mentioning.

19:37Karen Finerman:Yeah, Mel, you brought up that bund, 10-year bund spread has blown out more than treasuries. And so the Germans are certainly the place where we saw this right away. It's also interesting you get back to my last kind of potpourri. You get back to private credit. Why does Deutsche Bank's name always seem to come up? Today they had an announcement about$30 billion. It does seem like they're always out there. And it just seems that if you look at the higher the cost of war and how this extends out, unfortunately, I think it hurts Europe more. And I think this is a place where a lot of people are looking.

20:09Melissa Lee:Yeah. If you think you're having a hard time in this market, making sense of it, you know, you've got to look at some of the hedge fund returns that we've seen over the last month or so. I mean, in February. That's not my phone.

20:18Karen Finerman:Sorry. Everyone looks at me when the phone goes off.

20:20Melissa Lee:Sorry to cut you off. You have a history anyway. You do have a history. You know, but hedge funds are having a really hard time in this market. And so you hear people say all the time it is a stock picker's market. It's even hard for that, I think, because you also have this macro that's so uncertain. So, again, we feel for you, people.

20:36Tim Seymour:Coming up, we are watching shares of Adobe After Hours, a software company just out with results and numbers and details out of the quarter next. Plus, compounded caution, the health risk Eli Lilly is flagging compounded versions of its weight loss drug and why it is weighing on the stock. Don't go anywhere fast when he's back. That's him weighing on the stock.

20:53Melissa Lee:Nice. Nice. Nice. Nice. This is Fast Money with Melissa Lee, right here on CNBC.

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21:35Tim Seymour:My community gives me the confidence to ask myself, what would you like the power to do? So every time I'm on the pitch, I play for more than myself.

21:46Karen Finerman:Oh, what a tackle from Naomi Gerner. Absolutely brilliant. Bank of America champions U.S. Women's National Team member Naomi Girma and everyone who dares to ask, what would you like the power to do? Bank of America, proud to be the official bank of U.S. soccer. Bank of America N.A. member FDSC. I'm Cindy Lauper with fellow Cosentix advocate, Chef Michelle Bernstein. We'll share our experiences with plaque psoriasis, with psoriatic arthritis,

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23:05Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. We've got an earnings alert on Adobe. Shares dropping despite a top and bottom line beat. The company also announcing its CEO will step down when a successor has been named. CBC's Kate Rooney's got the details. Hi, Kate. Hi, Melissa. So Adobe's beat on quarterly numbers is being overshadowed by that CEO transition you mentioned. Longtime leader Chanteneau Narayan announcing that he's going to be stepping down after almost two decades in that role. The company's still looking for a successor. Narayan says he's going to be staying on as chairman of the board. For quarterly earnings, though, you had$6.06.

23:38That was a 19-cent beat. Revenue stronger than expected, coming in at$6.4 billion.

23:42Tim Seymour:Also a beat in an annual recurring revenue ARR. That's a key metric Wall Street was looking for. That was slightly higher than consensus. And then subscription revenue, key for Adobe, a beat at$6.17 billion. That grew about 13 % in the quarter. Also record Q1 results in what they call AI-first ARR. That more than tripled, although they didn't give a number behind that. The guidance, also better than expectations. At the midpoint of the range, at least, they did reaffirm prior full year. EPS and revenue guidance are looking for around$26 billion for the full year. Mel. Thank you, Kate. Kate Rooney on Adobe, down 7.4%.

24:21Tim Seymour:We spoke to an analyst in the last hour on Adobe, and he said they basically don't have any growth drivers right now. They don't have the right drivers.

24:29Karen Finerman:Well, and their discussion about having the ability to help empower everyone to create, I think, is their slogan. The question is, are they going to be creating and empowered through Adobe or just through AI? They have not proven that AI tools that are empowered through Adobe are the way through, even with their, as they emphasize and surpassed, more than 50 million monthly average users. So a CEO change, this may be long overdue, not to point out the quality. This is one of the highest quality companies in the tech space for a long time. But this stock's more than 65 % off its all-time high at a time when innovation is running wild.

25:09Karen Finerman:And I think the market tells you.

25:10Tim Seymour:Generative AI, generative AI, specifically ARR, is hundreds of millions of dollars versus ARR of$26 billion. It's a drop in the bucket.

25:22Melissa Lee:No, I get it. And the growth growth, I understand everything about that. But Tim just said, I mean, think about this. The company made its all-time high. I just want to make sure in the fall of 2021, we recently made three or four year lows, but we're at four year lows. The last levels we saw in the fall of 2022. So all those things are taking into consideration. The quarter was not a disaster. The guide was not a disaster. They talk about record cash flow, record across the board in a lot of things. But the market is saying we don't care about any of that because to your point and Tim's point, we don't see the growth opportunities for you.

25:56Melissa Lee:But at a certain point, I mean, valuation just gets in the way at current levels. Even if you discount stuff, I mean, 10 times next year's numbers, I mean, it's incredible.

26:06Tim Seymour:I did think for a split second that maybe the stock would see a little bit of relief knowing that the CEO was going to be replaced. And yet that did not happen at all.

26:14Melissa Lee:You know, this is one of those ones I think these guys adequately frame it from a financial standpoint. And your point about actually the revenue and the ARR contribution is tiny, right? But if you look at the numbers and you look at, I mean, they've been bringing down numbers every quarter for like the last two years. Right. So they keep maybe coming in line, but the stock keeps going lower and lower. And you say to yourself sooner or later, there's no one left to sell it. Like, I wouldn't be surprised if you see buyers come in back towards those prior lows. The stock did run into it a little bit.

26:39Melissa Lee:But you've got to start thinking about, and I think a lot of investors who know software really well, what are the moats to this business? Right. What are some of the companies that have been in the private markets that have actually been disintermediating quietly for a while? Canva is one of them. Obviously, when you see some of these image generation like Sora from OpenAI and you say to yourself, wow, that's really cheap to get my hands on. And I see my creatives using this sort of stuff and I don't have to pay a seat license there the way I used to. It's kind of hard to make a case why to buy this.

27:04Melissa Lee:And the last thing, remember three and a half years ago, they tried to buy Figma. That was going to be their answer to this. They're actually really lucky that deal got struck down for$20 billion. I'll bet you the stock would be lower if they owned it.

27:14Tim Seymour:And last quick question. This is the last software company to report in this reporting season. Was this an Adobe-specific quarter, or does this still underscore the dangers lurking in the IGV?

27:25Karen Finerman:I think it does. By the way, that bouncing software was soft. I mean, you failed at the 50.

27:31Tim Seymour:From 76 to 86?

27:33Karen Finerman:Yeah. In a span of two weeks?

27:34Tim Seymour:Yes. Do you think that's soft, Ted Bucks?

27:36Karen Finerman:I do. I do. Given the fall, given the earnings that they all reported, they were solid quarters, they all had solid quarters. to look forward on that core business. And again, technically on the charts, it failed at the 50 on the way back up. So yeah, soft.

27:51Tim Seymour:Soft software. All right. A lot more Fast Money to come. Here's what's coming up next. A warning in the weight loss drug space. The health risk Eli Lilly is flagging for the compounded version of its obesity drug and what it's doing to the stocks in the space. Plus, digging into the credit crunch, another big bank reigning in redemptions as the impact ripples into areas outside the private equity space. The financial fallout. Next, you're watching Fast Money, live from the NASDAQ market side in Times Square. We're back right after this.

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29:01Tim Seymour:My community gives me the confidence to ask myself, what would you like the power to do? So every time I'm on the pitch, I play for more than myself.

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30:01Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. Eli Lilly, more than 2 % lower today. The pharma giant sending a letter to the FDA a warning of health risks from impurities related to compounded versions of its weight loss and diabetes drug, terzepatide. Lilly has been trying to combat compounders, which it says are marketing illegal copies of its ZepBound and Monjaro. They basically did their own studies and found that there is a chemical reaction that yields these impurities, and they're asking the FDA in that letter to recall all of the compounded versions of terzepatide that is compounded with B12.

30:33Melissa Lee:You know that game we like to play. If you had told me this yesterday. Right, right. Right.

30:36Tim Seymour:What would the stock do?

30:38Melissa Lee:Given what the market did today, given where Eli Lilly is traded up to, stock's down 8 % to 10 % on the back of that, given the run that's had and given the tape today. And it wasn't. I mean, it hung in there relatively well. So it says to me that, yeah, people get a little, they're a little concerned about this around the edges. But on a day where the market sold off significantly, on a day where Eli Lilly a week or so goes making all-time highs, with this letter, it should have been a lot worse, I guess is my point.

31:04Tim Seymour:I would have thought this would be positive, though. because you're saying that the counterfeit versions are bad for you and there's a reason to not do it even though it's a lot cheaper.

31:14Karen Finerman:Look, the compounders have been kind of gnats around the edges of this. They've also been driving price deflation. And I think they're playing offense by playing defense here. So, yeah, I agree. But that may be exactly why you got that reaction guy to tell me the news. I can't tell you what the stock looks like.

31:30Tim Seymour:That's the worst name game, by the way. We should come up with it. It's a great game. I didn't think of it that way.

31:34Melissa Lee:Now that you say that, it actually makes a little sense. What's that? What? See, I looked at it as initial as a negative. Right. And you chew the glass half full side of the desk. Well, you tend to be.

31:44Tim Seymour:I learned that from Dan. Yeah.

31:45Melissa Lee:I learned something from Dan.

31:49Tim Seymour:The latest bunch of private credit shares in Morgan Stanley sinking as it becomes the latest bank to rein in redemptions on its fund. How deep can the financial fallout go? And who's most at risk right now when Fast Money returns?

32:04Missed a moment of fast? Catch us anytime on the go. Follow the Fast Money podcast. We're back right after this.

32:18Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. Stocks dropping as oil prices surge yet again today. The Dow tumbling more than 700 points. The S &P and Nasdaq both falling more than 1.5 percent. For their worst day in a month, the Dow and S &P 500 now on three-day losing streaks, and WTI crude settling 10 percent higher. Shares of Dollar General falling 6 percent despite topping earnings and revenue estimates this morning. The discount retailer forecasting slower growth this year. Dollar Gen now down 13 percent in March alone. And shares of Boeing falling 4 percent today, now down more than 11 percent since Monday.

32:50Tim Seymour:Earlier this week, the planemaker announced wiring flaws, and its 737 max plans will slow March deliveries. Heading in the other direction this week, Bloom Energy up as much as 4 % earlier today before turning lower, but still up more than 16 % since Monday as the AI infrastructure boom increases demand for its fuel cell systems. Of course, a good print from Oracle really helped it. And some more after hours action rubric higher after topping EPS and revenue estimates. SentinelOne beating earnings expectations with revenues in line with estimates. The company did lower Q1 EPS guidance. And Lenar missing expectations on the top and the bottom line.

33:24Tim Seymour:Ulta, another one we're watching, dropping after missing earnings expectations. But big reactions when it comes to some of the ones in the after-arrow session, like Ulta. I mean, Ulta's down 7%, just like that.

33:35Melissa Lee:Let me go to Dollar General real quick. It's had a huge run over the last six months. Recently, it's sold off. But what they said, I think, is really important. The consumer seemingly is in a little bit of distress. I think that's the word they use. And consistent inflation problems, which is something we've been talking about for a while. So when you hear it at that end of the curve from a dollar gen, you have to start doing the math and say, OK, maybe the consumer is not in good shape as we thought it was.

33:58Karen Finerman:You know, I know we're going to have a conversation about Nike, but that's company specific. So let me talk about discretionary because, you know, who needs to buy again another something? So when you get to beauty and health care, Ulta is a story that has been a great story. It's been a fantastic story. But then again, I go back to some of the names, whether it's Guy's Birkenstock, whether it's Crocs. I mean, two of his favorite forms of footwear, by the way. But again, all of these, Lulu, about to hit fresh new lows. The entire discretionary space is under attack, and it should be. Because again, we're at a place here where the consumer is under pressure.

34:32Karen Finerman:These were stocks that were, to me, two years ago vulnerable from the long cycle COVID rebound. And I think it's a case where they're going to test even lower. Hold on a second. There might be people watching for the first time.

34:44Tim Seymour:Guy doesn't show his feet under any circumstance, even at the beach.

34:46Karen Finerman:If you think that I'm actually wearing the – I do not. Wow. Sounds like we had a—obviously, he wears—obviously, on a Saturday around your house, you wear some gorks with socks.

34:57Tim Seymour:Anyway, meantime, let's talk about serious things now. The turmoil in the financials continuing. Morgan Stanley now reigning redemptions from its private credit fund amid surging withdrawals. Leslie Picker's got the details on this. Leslie. Hey, Mel. Yeah, the big focus today in private credit land is the huge surge of redemptions. We've just seen across many of these non-traded private credit funds. Cliffwater and, as you mentioned, Morgan Stanley reporting redemption rates of 14 % and 11 % respectively, but the managers only fulfilled about half of those requests. The rest were gated per fund agreements, and these numbers come after last week's disclosures from BlackRock and Blackstone.

35:38Now, these gates are a feature of these semi-liquid fund structures, and they exist to prevent forced asset sales and losses on illiquid assets. However, the fact that we're seeing investors get cut back on their requests means it's likely that they're going to try again in the second quarter, perhaps by an even greater magnitude if they expect to be capped again. However, analysts at KBW point out that this dynamic is driven by a mismatch between the, quote, liquidity of private credit assets and investor expectations of liquidity from these funds and not a signal of credit quality. In other words, Mel, this is a headwind and a reputational blemish for these funds that have been courting the high net worth retail channel for growth.

36:21But it's not necessarily at this point in time reflective of a bigger systemic risk, according to these analysts, Mel.

36:27Tim Seymour:It seems like we're in a vicious cycle, though, Leslie, because the more redemptions that are requested, the more forced asset sales we have. So any marks that were established by previous sales don't really hold up anymore. I would think that those marks that were created from the Blue Owl sale of its assets, they don't hold as any kind of a floor at this point, given what we're seeing happening in the space. Yeah. I mean, desperation is never a good thing, especially when you're dealing with illiquid assets. And then it kind of begs the question, okay, what happens to those investors who didn't redeem already, who were like, you know what, we're going to wait this out, the fundamentals look okay.

37:05And then they're the ones who are more affected by the potential future fire sale for the assets, especially if the whole software notion and revaluation comes to fruition in terms of the markings. We haven't seen those quite yet in the private credit space, which does tend to mark with a lag. If that does come to fruition, It's going to be the ones who remain that are most affected. And so that's kind of the dynamic where you're seeing this rush for the exit. Not everybody is able to exit. And therefore, what does it mean for those who are still there in the forthcoming quarters?

37:36Tim Seymour:And Leslie, Apollo is now moving towards more transparency when it comes to its marks. Yeah, so that was interesting. That was from an interview yesterday on Bloomberg where the co-president said, like, we hear your criticisms. We hear that you want more transparency. So they're going to start with monthly marks and then move over time toward daily marks in order to give people a greater sense of real-time net asset value, which would be an interesting change of pace. I think a lot of that requires participation from third-party assessments and perhaps some technology. But they've definitely heard the criticism, and it sounds like they're taking moves to rectify it.

38:17Tim Seymour:Leslie, thank you. Leslie Picker has been all over the story. What do you think, Dan?

38:23Melissa Lee:You know, this is a very curious case. When you look at like a Blackstone or Apollo, these are two of the best global franchises, if you think about across financial services. And over the last 10 years or so, all you got to do is look at a chart with Apollo. It's had like four 40 percent peak to trough declines. You know, Blackstone has had five of those. This is literally over the last 10, 11 years. So I say to myself, if this is overblown, then you might be having an opportunity in some of these franchises that maybe, just maybe, you know, a lot of folks are shooting first, asking questions later.

38:54Melissa Lee:Because we've had a lot of strategists come on and say there's a huge disconnect between the loans that they made or the assets they own and what the publicly traded equities are trading at. So I'm not there yet. But like an Apollo, I mean, or a Blackstone, they could be really interesting if things get really, really oversold. They are right now. But who knows?

39:11Tim Seymour:What if investors don't want to buy these vehicles anymore? Because if you're a high net worth or an institution, you're looking at this and you're like, I don't want any part of that right now.

39:20Karen Finerman:Look, people need to look at themselves in the mirror. You made this investment and you probably, you know, if you didn't know what your liquidity, I mean, hearing about a mismatch between investor expectations and the product, I don't care. OK, that's that product should have been sold correctly. By the way, someone probably got paid to put them into that product. You should talk to those people. I do think it's a case where, you know, this is the first time for a lot of high net worths that they got into an alt product. And, you know, also the last two or three years, they were making 10 to 12 to 13 percent in credit, and they did really well.

39:57Karen Finerman:So some of them who hang through this, I think, are going to continue to do well. But I do think that there's a lot of sensation here. I also think, though, this is what you get when you put people that aren't, they're not institutional investors. They're retail investors that own something that traditionally institutions have.

40:14Melissa Lee:Great point. And you wonder at what point do they get dragged up to Capitol Hill to talk about, you know, you put out these products to retail, which, as Tim mentions, by the way, buyer beware. But you know that at a certain point, that's going to be under the microscope.

40:28Tim Seymour:As soon as they started opening these things up to retail investors, you think they're going to be caught holding the bag. Do we have another case of this here? I don't know. Coming up, the Iran war's impact on your grocery bill, how disruption in the Strait of Hormuz is impacting food prices, and why fertilizer shipments could be an underappreciated inflation threat. Fast Money is back in two.

40:54Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. Fertilizer stocks CF, Mosaic, Nutrien have risen more than double digits since the start of the Iran war, the conflict disrupting more than just oil shipments for the Strait of Hormuz, which could lead to a rise in food prices. CNBC's Brandon Gomez is here with all the details. Brandon.

41:10Melissa Lee:Hey, Melissa. Yeah, look, oil rightfully in focus, but more than one third of the world's fertilizer passes through the Strait of Hormuz. With traffic largely halted, supply could get tight and timing couldn't be worse. The spring growing season is here, raising concerns farmers could cut back application and see lower yields for crops like corn, soybeans, wheat and rice. Now, those higher crop costs are already getting priced in. Food companies that rely on feed for livestock like Tyson Foods and Hormel have seen shares fall recently. And on the flip side, fertilizer producers, as you note, are benefiting.

41:41Melissa Lee:CF Industries leading the S &P today, hitting a new all-time high. Mosaic, Nutrien also higher. Nutrien actually told me the situation is, quote, fluid, and they remain closely engaged with customers. But if this goes on much longer, and we heard today from Iran's supreme leader about keeping the strait closed. That is when we will start to calculate price hikes at grocery stores. Wolf Research estimating U.S. food at home inflation could rise by about two percentage points, adding to existing pressure from energy. So we'll have to see how long this plays out and really how long, how much of an impact that has.

42:13Tim Seymour:So things like Urea, that's not, there's no long term contract or there are no contracts like locked in prices for them?

42:19Melissa Lee:So locked in prices, but then also you have to think about when they're getting their supply too, right? I mean, a lot of the companies that are looking to have their supply may already have it. The big companies, the smaller players who rely on last minute shipments, those are the ones that are really going to be impacted here.

42:33Tim Seymour:Brandon, thank you. Brandon Gomez. What do you think about the fertilizers? But also, if farmers have less money to spend, they're less likely to buy new equipment. That's traditionally been historically been linked.

42:45Melissa Lee:Then you have to look at a company like Deere. Cat. Well, Cat, to a certain extent. Deere more. But yes. I'll say this. I mean, Brandon, he makes a great point. And people just think it's energy specific. It's the gasoline. No, it's not. It's just about everything you see, touch and use on a daily basis. It's impacted by this. So stock specific, these fertilizer stocks can continue to go higher in this environment without question. Yeah, these are farmers dealing with this, you know, a year after the tariffs. And the tariff thing's not fixed. So, like, it really sucks to be a U.S. farmer, especially if we see, you know, things not get better with China.

43:20Melissa Lee:I mean, we need them to buy our soybeans.

43:23Karen Finerman:Yeah, a lot of this feels like CRB and some of the 2008 when we were looking at different pieces of the – it's all part of the same trade. We're long nutrient in Idevo. So, I mean, again, it's been about finding some of these trends. I think prices stay elevated for a while, but the greatest response is always more supply. And that, I think, happens in ag at some point.

43:42Tim Seymour:Coming up the next shoe to drop, shares of Nike getting tripped this week, up despite a bullish call on Wall Street where the traders see this one swooshing to next. And here's a sneak peek at the Kramer cam. Jim is chatting exclusively with the CEO of optical networking company Lumentum as it gets ready to join the S &P 500. Catch the full interview, top of the hour on Mad Money. More Fast Money in two.

44:08Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. Nike swooshing nearly 3 percent lower today, hitting levels last seen in April. The stock now down 10 days in a row, its second longest losing streak on record. That even as Barclays upgraded the stock yesterday to overweight. Here's what the lead analyst told me about why she likes the stock. And they have successfully reclaimed that run space in the U.S. market. They're up strong double digits in the run category in all channels. Globally, they're up double digits in all channels and all geographies. That says that when they do put their money and their innovation dollars where they say they will, they come out on the other side of this with some results.

44:49Tim Seymour:So are they doing the right thing? That's question number one. And number two, will the stock respond to that in this environment? Because you can do the right things and the stock still won't respond.

44:58Karen Finerman:I think they are doing the right things. And no, the stock won't. And the expression is you can't invest in a bad neighborhood. And I think apparel, athleisure, whatnot, remains a bad neighborhood. It doesn't mean though, that Nike didn't, they led them all, Nike led all of those names to this point. In other words, Nike's been underperforming now for almost three years. I think this is a bottom-up story that long-term investors should own here, and I would put new money into this name.

45:26Melissa Lee:Getting to levels that we last saw, I want to say eight years ago. Think about that, which is pretty, I mean, you can't say that about a lot of stocks. Valuation, it's still not cheap. However, if you think that competition is priced in, if you think that margin pressures are priced in and all the things that come with it, you take a flyer here just on the fact that it's levels we haven't seen in a long time.

45:47Karen Finerman:You might have been wearing that exact same outfit eight years ago, talking about this. I might have.

45:52Melissa Lee:You know, Tim mentioned growing up in a tough neighborhood, and I got a little upset because I did grow up in a tough neighborhood, and we would have to wear a lot of the same clothes every day. That's why I got a little melancholy during that portion of the show.

46:05Tim Seymour:But there's the Nike fundamental story, but then there's just the context of the consumer under pressure. And so is this the time to be in even a turnaround story where management's doing the right things?

46:18Melissa Lee:Yeah, I think Tim made the case before. I mean, some of this consumer stress-stress-stress stuff is a really hard place to be. And just go look at Capital One. I mean, that stock's down 32 % from an all-time high just in the last couple months or so. And we talk about this K-shape. I know I said the exact same thing last night. But then if you look at the upper part of that K, you look at American Express, that stock's down 22 percent from an all-time high. So there's something going on, at least the way investors are perceiving the consumer.

46:42Tim Seymour:Up next, final trades.

46:52Tim Seymour:Final trade time, Tim.

46:53Karen Finerman:That was insensitive to me on Guy's hometown and his outfit. Excuse me, J &J.

46:58Tim Seymour:And his footwear, Dan.

47:00Karen Finerman:XLE, Parabakh move, fade it.

47:02Melissa Lee:Unless your name is Jesus, you should not be wearing sandals to get my drift. Mosaic. F-O-S.

47:11Tim Seymour:Thank you for watching Fast Money. Mad Money with Jim Cramer starts right now.

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47:48To view the full Fast Money Disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com forward slash Fast Money Disclaimer.

47:53Karen Finerman:My mom inspired me to dream big and work hard. Tyler Adams! What would you like the power to do? Bank of America. Proud to be the official bank of U.S. soccer and FIFA World Cup 2026. Bank of America NA, member FDSP.