Stocks Drop On Rate Concerns… And Disney Gears Up For Battle 11/13/25

0:02Live from the Nasdaq market side in the heart of New York City's Times Square. This is Fast Magical Quarter shares the entertainment giant sinking after its latest report. Is the move justified? And what's next for the stock? Plus, crypto crumbling below a key support level. Cyberstocks sink on news of an AI orchestrated hack and housing headaches. New data showing a big spike in foreclosures last month. What's behind the rise and what's it say about the state of the consumer? I'm Melissa Lee. Come to you live from Studio B at the Nasdaq. On the desk tonight, Tim Seymour, Courtney Garcia, Steve Grasso and Mike Coe.

0:46We start off with the markets going back into sell-off mode. The Nasdaq dropping more than 2 % today, posting its lowest close of the month. The S &P and Dow each shedding more than 1.6%. Fears about valuations in the AI trade, weighing on tech stocks, all but one member of the MAG-7 down today, with Tesla's 6-plus percent drop leading the losses. The group losing a combined half trillion dollars in market cap just today. Also spooking investors, new commentary from the Fed, sending chances of a rate cut in December sharply lower. Marks markets had been pricing in a more than 60 percent chance of a move just yesterday.

1:18Now there's about a 50 50 shot. So what do you make of today's action is a sign of some real air coming out of the AI trade. Certainly what we saw in terms of the Nasdaq 100 doing worse, semiconductors doing much worse, RSP, equal weighted S &P, doing better than the relative than the tech heavy indices. I think relative is the term of the day. I mean, it's all, you know, in terms of taking even some of the Fed out of the equation, if we're talking about missing out on 25 basis points if a suddenly hawkish Fed is going to tap the brakes. I don't know that that even really matters on the story for equities, but it's amazing how on a relative basis we're talking about valuations today.

1:55We're talking about data that we had already said we weren't going to get that now we're concerned we don't have. So I think it's, again, it's all relative to where we are approaching this from. This is the third kind of big sell-off day we've had in a couple weeks. It's starting to become more than just a one-off. It is starting to look as if some of the key levels that we bounced nicely off the 50 last week, that was resounding. But suddenly you're testing again. So I think it's a case where the Fed, as we always say, it tends to be paramount in the in the context of market and momentum and where we feel.

2:27I'm not sure that much traded, excuse me, changed today in terms of the outlook. But there's no question we suddenly are thinking about the things that we weren't thinking about yesterday. Yeah, I mean, obviously the Fed is part of the equation, but it doesn't seem like the reason, the reason why there is air coming out of the AI trade. And also there's nothing new necessarily in the concerns of the AI trade when it comes to return on investment. We knew that they're issuing loads of debt in order to pay for this capex. It's not like anything has really changed. It's just investors are scrutinizing that now.

2:55Yeah, and I think it's just rubber hit the road type time. When you look at it, November and December are really your best months seasonally to be invested in the marketplace. And if that flips on its head, it's going to hurt a lot of people. The market always sets up to hurt the most amount of people at any given time. If we have it down December, it's going to be painful. Crypto is hitting a wall. So does crypto get back on the horse? Does that run back higher? If you look at the seven names that are responsible for all the gains, they need lower rates. Right. You need. So if December doesn't happen, it's a problem for the market.

3:30Courtney. Yeah, and I mean, when you look at today, there was not a ton of news, to your point. I mean, nothing really changed the picture on valuations. But what did happen is we got an end to the government shutdown, which you saw this run up on the optimism that was going to happen. And now it's actually happened. And I think some of that's already been priced in. But now people are realizing, OK, we're not going to get some of that government data that we were hoping we were going to get. And that is actually what's leading to maybe we aren't going to get these rates cuts because if we're not going to get this data, it's not going to be there.

3:55And I think that's what some of the sell-off is. And you are going to get, after such a good run in the markets, you're going to get some profit taking. You're going to get some rotation out there. So I don't think this is something to be overly concerned about. But, yes, you are going to see these days happen after these big run-ups that we've seen. Mike, what do you make of the sell-off today? And how are you positioned in the markets? Well, we have positioned to slightly lower beta. I mean, we did have a lot of high beta names. We did add considerably to NVIDIA. That's going to be in the filings overnight, but we bought a big piece of that.

4:30I think to Tim's point, the 25 basis points, that wasn't really the important aspect. The question really was, do we have an accommodative Fed or not? And if you do, it's tough to hit bids going into that, right? But if you suddenly get into a new framework, a new paradigm where we don't think that's the case, that is a little bit ticklish. Now, one other thing I would note is that what we saw was a lot of volatility in some of the highest flying names. I mean, I saw a lot of names in the book that were swinging around by high single digits, even hitting as much as 10 % moves in some of the really high beta stuff.

5:09And I think what that tells me is that some of the weaker hands are the ones that in the more speculative things are getting shaken loose. But we have the 50-day, and probably Steve can speak to this because he's more of a technician than I. I kind of feel like we're getting to a truth moment in both Bitcoin, which I'm a long-term bull on, but has been in a pronounced downtrend for a while here. And I feel like this is that moment of truth. I mean, if you look at a really long-term trend in Bitcoin, so just say you're looking at weeklies going back to early 2023, we have been sort of in this uptrend and it feels like we're right on the border here of testing this again.

5:49And I kind of feel like we can hold this, then we could actually have a pretty good Christmas. But I feel like if we break it, then a lot of the things that are associated with that trade are going to break along with it. I mean, some would say, and Steve, I know you're watching the 100K level on Bitcoin. Some would say that that break below 100K was an important one. It broke a 189-day streak above 100K in terms of closes for Bitcoin. So something has changed. Even if you just look at this as a barometer of sentiment, something has changed. Risk on, risk off. And that's the barometer. And the 100K works better than any other moving averages because it's just a mental level that you're looking at.

6:26The problem is what I think has entered into the equation is the ETFs have allowed you to be in and out of names a lot quicker than institutions can get in and out instead of holding them in wallets. So that, to me, you have a lot of turnover and a lot of money coming in and out of those ETFs, which has to replicate itself in the actual coin. So I think that's changed the dynamic considerably. Yeah, that's fair. I mean, you know, the asset can move around a lot faster. The velocity of trading could happen. It could be more volatile. Of all the things that are selling off, I have to say, and it's not like I've been a digital freak on this desk, but I think Bitcoin is the least of the things that bother me.

7:00It doesn't, you know, a 20 percent pullback in Bitcoin means nothing in the context of what has been a ferocious bull market. And these types of pullbacks, as we say, are garden variety. So I would be more concerned if I started to actually see the fallout of if Meta really takes the next step lower. or if some of the real horses of this last move higher are unable to hold the ground, I think that's something to think about. But all we've talked about over the last three weeks, at least on days when we take it for granted, we don't really play up the days where semis outperformed the S &P that much.

7:31We talk about the days where health care rotation is alive and well in industrials, and companies like GM and Ford are actually catching one of the best bids they've had ever. That, to me, is something that's been slowly going on here. So being suddenly worried about valuations, I would be more worried about the anecdotal information that we're now working a little bit harder to get from some of the companies talking about hiring. We've had more jobs cuts out there. But people that are thinking about the AI trade and is that falling out of bed, all we keep hearing from not just hyperscalers about the commitments, not just from NVIDIA, but even I was reading some reports about the Edison Institute, which is basically the group that follows the utility trends around data center.

8:12There also is no fall off in demand for power build out. All the trades that at least to me are part of why valuations have gone where they are, are not falling out of bed. Have we priced them in? Yeah, I think it's it's Steve, we're all framing the idea of it just depends on what your appetite is on risk and momentum and a snapshot. But nothing has changed. Yeah. I mean, as I mentioned at the top of the show, equal weighted S &P 500. Its losses say we're about half of the broader index. And this goes to your point, Tim, in terms of the air may be coming out of the AI trade, but we have seen a rotation to a lot of other sectors like health care, like some of these auto stocks, some more beaten down names, Mike.

8:48And maybe that is sort of a healthy reconfiguration of the market at this point. I don't know what your take is. If you take a look, we're talking about sentiment barometers. Oracle CDS spiking today. That's another. I mean, I don't know if you think if Oracle is going to default on its debt. Probably not. But this is a measure of sentiment in terms of how people are thinking about this debt that's being issued. Yeah, we saw that big pop in Oracle a while back. And then all of a sudden, it's basically the blooms completely come off the rose there. I'm not terribly concerned about Oracle. We did actually had to add some Oracle today as well.

9:25So now that that name's come up, we might as well give that a mention. I don't think the market is also expensive. This is one of the things I keep hearing is people complaining about some of the highest flying stocks being expensive. I mean, Alphabet is not expensive, and Amazon is not expensive, and NVIDIA is not expensive. They're valuable, and I think there's a pretty big difference. And so I think a lot of these things, this might actually present a little bit of a buying opportunity. That would kind of be my view. And actually, I was glad that Tim brought up Ford because I also think that General Motors is sort of right alongside, and they actually have an autonomous driving play embedded.

10:03I mean, I realize that they've downsized the cruise investment, and they've sort of on short, but that's still a valuable asset, and I think it's underappreciated. All right. Well, let's get to a mover in the after our session. Shares of applied materials dropping despite the company beating top and bottom line estimates, upping the guidance as well. The conference call is underway. The stock is down about 4%. Christina Parts Nevelis has got all the details. Christina. Thanks, Melissa. Analysts had actually already slashed their forecast after week guidance last quarter. So today's beat really comes against a lower bar.

10:32But on the earnings call, what are we hearing? The CEO highlighted the near-term challenge was actually China because of those export controls imposed by the US. China was 28 % of systems revenue in fiscal 2025, but fell to 25 % in the fourth quarter. And the CEO actually expects equipment demand to be weaker in the fiscal 2026. But the growth story, of course, is shifting to AI. The CEO said they're getting more than one year of visibility with multiple customers as they ramp up their AI factories. Right now, much of that advanced chip spending is going to lithography, according to the CEO, and that's where ASML dominates.

11:06But Applied Materials believes that sets up demand for applied equipment as those chips move through the production line. So they're going to see more later on. Management also expects high bandwidth memory and leading edge foundry logic to be the fastest growing areas of the semi-equipment market. which would add to the positive demand narrative for memory makers like Micron and SanDisk. Bottom line, they're calling for stronger demand in the second half of 2026. Melissa? All right, Christina, thanks. Christina Parts Nebulus, we are seeing AMAT, as I mentioned, down in the after hours, but also the HBM makers, the memory makers that Christina had mentioned, they are also trading lower.

11:42Mike Ho, where are you in this trade, if anywhere? Yeah, well, I mean, we have a decent amount of exposure to it, as one might expect, as I sort of referenced it at the top. I do think we don't have a whole lot of AMAT, though. You know, I personally think that where we should probably be focusing our time and attention just as investors is looking at the highest quality stuff and thinking of this as an opportunity to buy a little bit more of a discount. And the other thing is I also have this sense that, you know, retail investors often underappreciated for what they can do for the market. They have been buying pretty aggressively almost every dip they've been provided, and they're getting one now.

12:22And I have a feeling that they're going to ride in a little bit, maybe to the rescue of us pros, perhaps. But there is a lot of money there that is available to be deployed here. And I think some of these names had flown pretty far pretty fast, and people have been looking for an opportunity to get them at a discount, and now they have one. Yeah, and this is a company here which has actually outperformed the overall sector, right? So it's up almost 37 % year to date, which is better than the semiconductor overall category. So I think what you're seeing here is some of this was just a high bar.

12:52And I think you're seeing some overall markets are down plus a high bar. And you're seeing some of that taken off the table here. I think what's probably going to be a bigger mover and more important to watch is NVIDIA, because that's obviously a much bigger part of the markets here, which is coming next week. So I think that's something that we probably want to watch even more so than their earnings here. If you look at it, this is the one that's probably the easiest on valuation. trades at the cheapest PE relative to its peers, trades at approximately 26 times when the whole group trades at mid-30s.

13:20So if you're looking for a reason, and if you're looking at AI, you need DRAM. And DRAM has been growing exponentially for AMAT. So when you look at it as a whole, if you're looking to bottom fish, you're looking to get something on a discount, you're getting the cheapest valuation in the whole group. All right. Meantime, new foreclosures data jumping. 20 % from a year ago in October, an eighth straight month of increases. For more, let's bring in CNBC's Diana Olek, who's got the latest on these numbers. Diana. Well, Melissa, while the numbers are still small, the persistent rise in foreclosures may be a sign of cracks in the housing market.

13:52There were nearly 37 ,000 U.S. properties with some type of foreclosure filing in October. That's default notices, scheduled auctions, or bank repossessions, according to Adam, a property data firm. That was 3 % higher than September and a 19 % jump from October of last year. It marked the eighth straight month of annual increases. Foreclosure starts, which are the initial phase of the process, rose 6 percent for the month and 20 percent higher than the year before. Completed foreclosures, that's the last phase, jumped 32 percent year over year. Florida, South Carolina and Illinois led the nation in state foreclosure filings.

14:25On a metro level, Florida's Tampa, Jacksonville and Orlando had the most filings, with Riverside, California and Cleveland rounding out the top five. Again, the base numbers are still low, but it's not a good sign going forward, Melissa. It is not. Diana, thank you. Diana Olick. And, of course, in the absence of official government data, you look at all these other data points and you create a mosaic, right, in your head in terms of what is going on in the economy. You've got this. Everybody knows about the auto delinquencies right now. You have the reports today, Verizon's cutting 15 ,000 jobs.

14:55I mean, I don't know. These other sources of data don't look great. No, they don't look great. And I think there have been there's been evidence within some of the subsectors around either consumer finance or mortgage finance. I mean, Walker Dunlap, look at that name. That name has really been under trouble. And I think if you've been expecting this to get worse, and I do mean delinquencies, this is how a lot of call them the professionals are out there playing it. So, yes, we don't have data. We're looking for other anecdotes. We're reading through all these research reports and what we're hearing about the consumer right now is not great.

15:26And you're clearly seeing that consumers are under pressure right now. And I think this is another one of those signs. But I think one of the reasons the markets overall is not as impactful is because when you look at this, that 20 percent jump sounds shocking. But the overall mortgages that are in foreclosure is less than half a percent, which is actually below the historic leverage, which is like between one and one a half percent. So I think that initial gut sounds bad. And there's definitely cracks in the consumer. I think that's what you want to take away from this. But it's not an overall problem, though.

15:54We're going into an imminent recession. That's not what I hear when I hear this. And that's exactly the argument that people say about auto delinquencies. Historically, they are still low, but they are ticking higher. I mean, at some point, it is worth watching. Yeah, I mean, mortgage rates are really the holy grail to this. If mortgage rates can come in, and you don't really know how to bring mortgage rates in, in a very accurate sniper-like fashion. But that's keeping a bunch of money trapped in people's homes in existing home sales, where you see that bifurcation between new home sales and existing home sales.

16:25If you could unlock that money that people have in their home, mortgage rates have to come down below five and a half percent to unlock that to get people out of the home that they're in. Meantime, Mike Coe, the housing trade. How do you feel about that? Well, I mean, it's a difficult situation if we don't start to see some, as Steve was just referencing, seeing rates come down. And just to quickly address the comment you were making about auto loan delinquencies, there are a couple of businesses that have had a tremendous run. And most notably, I would say Carvana. You know, Carvana is a stock that depends very sort of heavily on the fact that they are associated with the ability to essentially finance anybody.

17:02I think it's right on their website that they guarantee, you know, 99 % approvals. And the issue is that we have this rising delinquency. We saw the CarMax results that those were not solid. And this thing has had one of the most epic round trips that I think we've ever seen. And I think we continue to see persistently bad, you know, basically auto loan delinquencies is one part of it. But the other part of it also is the inventory level. So if you start to see the value of those inventories roll over, I kind of feel like Carvana is one of these things that I could see. It's right above the 200, actually, as I'm looking at this right now.

17:34But this one feels like it's got a lot of air under it if things get any worse in that space. All right. Coming up, Disney's Dilemma, how the media giant streaming endeavors are holding things up and the lengthy YouTube TV battle they're gearing up for. Don't go anywhere. Fast Money is back in two.

17:54Welcome back to Fast Money. Disney shares tumbling almost 8 % today. It's worst day since April. The media giant reporting better than expected earnings before the bell, but missing on revenue. Disney's TV networks and movie business weighing on results. The company is also in a carriage dispute with YouTube TV. CNBC founder and current contributor Tom Rogers joins us now with his reaction. Tom was the first president of NBC Cable and is now senior advisor to Versant Media, which will soon become CNBC's parent company. Tom, it's always great to see you. Great to be here. So what's your take on Disney's earnings in the context of the media landscape changing so quickly around it?

18:31Well, I think there was probably greater expectation that there was going to be some acceleration on the streaming front, which, of course, is the future of the company. They certainly have stability in the parks area. But the exciting part that people really want to see growing is the streaming. and there really wasn't any clear indication of a catalyst there. So I think that was the major disappointment. Certainly when it came to linear, everybody expected the traditional side of the TV business to be weak. It was. But relative to many of its peers, it did better. So I can't really point to that as being a basis for this kind of market reaction.

19:14What I thought was really interesting was when CEO Bob Iger on the conference call was talking about Disney Plus as a platform, which is going to be much more than just a content platform, almost like a super app where AI will help connect Disney fans to other parts of the Disney business, like the theme parks, as well as movies, etc. I guess the street wasn't moved by that. But I'm just curious, Tom, to see what your reaction is to that sort of grand plan, because in the longer term, that seems like an interesting idea. Well, I think it is an interesting idea, and there are clearly things they could do to bring in a greater notion of membership by their consumers into Disney, through the Disney+.

19:57us. I think they first got to show that they can integrate Hulu well, bundle ESPN and its streaming form well. I think they pointed to the fact that 80 % of ESPN subs were part of a Disney Hulu bundle, which is promising because that really is going to be the strength for them to build on AI and new elements of what that can be. Being the only player in the streaming marketplace that really has strength in children and families, strength in adult strength, in sports all in one place at the magnitude and depth they do. And they really got to show that that's going to be a catalyst. I think there were so few new Disney Plus subs for the ESPN streaming service to attach to that it hasn't proven to be a catalyst yet.

20:50If they can prove that that's really going to re-accelerate their growth in the streaming area, I think that's something that people might get excited about. Godfather, I know we're the fast money traders, but I feel like the stock overreacted today. I know these numbers weren't, you know, they didn't provide that preview into a catalyst. But at a time when the ESPN streaming clearly, I think, has given more intrinsic value. I mean, the question is, are they going to have to spend too much on sports rights? But this is a company that also they're finally, you know, they're buying back seven billion dollars of shares.

21:21This is a company that actually the balance sheet looks like it's really overcome what was a very difficult time during covid. So play investor trader here with us. You are the guy that sees the industry from the top down and always have. But Disney has done nothing for a long time. Haven't we priced in this lethargy and the DTC business is largely pretty solid? Well, you're right. They're not getting progress for a lot of things here that they deserve credit for. The fact of the matter is that I came on this show for the last five years saying, hey, what all these traditional media companies have to prove is that the improvement in streaming is going to outweigh the decline in traditional media.

22:09And they've proved that they are actually growing faster in streaming than the decline in linear now. They've also proved that when it comes to the percentage of their engagement that is coming from streaming, it's about the majority of their engagement now comes from there. And the majority of the revenue is coming from the streaming side. So they've got a lot of transformation that they should take credit for. On the other hand, this was their last quarter of announcing numbers. Now, Netflix did the same thing, but Netflix, when it stopped, was growing 40 million subs a year with 30 percent margins.

22:51And Disney's growing 11 million subs a year, a lot of which are wholesale subs under a charter deal, so very different than the kind of Netflix subs that were coming on board. And when Netflix said no more subnumbers, they pointed everybody to engagement, that that's going to be what we really want you to focus on, how well we bring people into the viewership. But Disney didn't even mention engagement on the call. And I found it very strange that they kind of left people a bit adrift of, now, what are the metrics to measure us? Now, certainly revenue growth is one, but they're growing at about half the rate of streaming revenue growth of Netflix.