Stocks Jump To Close Out Volatile Week, And The Technical Take On The Market Swings 4/11/25

0:01Live from the Nasdaq market site in the heart of New York City's Times Square. This is Fast Money. Here's what's on tap tonight. Finishing on a high note, markets closing out a wild week with solid gains. The S &P up nearly 6 percent. The Nasdaq up 7, but the moves in the 10-year still creating angst for many seasoned investors. We'll go inside the numbers. Plus, shining higher and higher. Another fresh record for gold. The precious metal now up 23 percent this year. And the miners following suit. Is there still room to get in on the action? And later, tired of looking at your sagging 401k? How about a little pinstripe profits instead?

0:34CNBC Sports releasing its MLB valuations list. Guys, Yankees reign supreme, but where do Tim's Mets rank? Stick around to find out. I'm Melissa Lee coming to you live from the studio of the NASDAQ. On the desk tonight, Tim Seymour, Karen Feinerman, and Dan Nathan. Just the three of them. Plenty, though. Stocks closing out a very volatile week with solid gains. The NASDAQ jumping 2%, bringing its gains since Monday to over 7%. That is its best week since November 2022. S &P gaining 1.8 percent today. The Dow up nearly 620 points. Those indices both posting their best weeks in over a year. But the big story tonight, the rapid rise in rates yields on the 10-year Treasury getting within a stone's throw of the 4.6 percent mark today, touching its highest level since February.

1:20It is up more than 60 basis points from its Monday lows. So why this disconnect between stocks and bonds? The Treasury market overreacting is just unwinding of trades. I don't know. How do you interpret this, Tim? I think there's a lot of cross currents here, and they're ones that we talked about well before tariff time. And we talked about a record deficit and refunding that needed to happen. We talked about some concerns from the credit rating agencies. But, you know, overall, slower growth and an economy that until we really stepped on April, I guess, April 1st and Liberation Day, you had an argument that actually bonds might be rallying because, in fact, you were seeing slower growth.

1:58And what's what's really been the test here is a sense that fiscal discipline in the United States of America is something I think ultimately would be applauded. I think there are a lot of cross currents that have foreign investors, but also have some people questioning the sustainability of some of the policy here. That's really at the heart of what's going on in the Treasury market. And while we've had like this week has been extraordinary by any measure for stocks, for bonds, for currencies. And those of us that have been through a couple cycles, including the global financial crisis, there's some of this we've seen before.

2:30But what I will say is I'm not sure we've seen a bond route that's not been Fed inflicted before. And a question whether there really was some change in the confidence level of the rest of the world on investing in the United States. That's what this week was about. And I think the reality is we are left with tariffs even after a pause in the 90 day. That leaves a lot of people concerned really just about the economy and where we are in an effective tariff rate. Yeah. I mean, you mentioned currencies, but declined in the dollar since Liberation Day. Also very concerning when paired with this abandonment, seemingly, of treasuries.

3:03Right. I mean, the Dixie hit just over 99, I think, at the low, closed higher than that, but down. I mean, it's so I think tomorrow it's so many cross currents. And I agree, you'd think that data from today would have been supportive for the 10-year. Not the case. So I don't know how much of it is this notion that the U.S. is in a different position than it used to be and money leaving there. Or we talked about yesterday just an allocation around other areas in the world not having to do with the tariff situation, but just having to do with the relative value proposition of going somewhere else.

3:39So I don't like to see things not working as they're supposed to. Even in an up market, it's still a little bit uncomfortable to see things that don't correlate the way that you would expect. Yeah, that's one of the things. If you're just staring at the stock market and say to yourself, just being the silver lining guy on the desk, it's like every year or so we get about a 10 percent decline in the S &P from a relative high. Right now we're down about 10 percent. I think the way we came down 10 percent is something that probably felt a little bit more uncomfortable. Go back to 2022 when the S &P at its lows was down like, what, 25, 26 percent or so.

4:11It never felt panicky, right? And, you know, even when the Fed told us what they were going to do, they were going to raise interest rates, trying to normalize, trying to, you know, really fight inflation. And if you think about their playbook, other than that one period, whenever we have gross scares, whenever we have the stock market selling off or home value is getting worse or the potential for unemployment to rise, the Fed has a playbook. And the playbook is to lower interest rates, right? And we saw that back in 2018 in the Q4 when the stock market sold off 20 percent. There were global growth scares.

4:40The Fed had been trying to raise interest rates. They got Fed funds up to two and a half percent. And what did they do? They pivoted in 2019. And then we got all of that back. And I think a lot of the economic data kind of stabilized. Well, they don't have that ability right now into what these guys both said. I mean, they're kind of like in a pickle here because we haven't seen this sort of arrangement in a long time. And I'll just, you know, guys not on the desk today, but he's been talking about this for a very long time. He's been contrarian about rates and the direction in which he thought they were going to go.

5:09The other point I'll say is that, you know, we got nine trillion dollars of debt to roll this year. So think about that in this sort of environment. You know, that could be a really difficult situation when you think about our debt service and what it is relative to other expenditures. It's more than that of our defense budget and the like. So this is not going to go away, I don't think, anytime soon. No, and I think it's interesting because Jamie Dimon used a word today, kerfuffle, that a lot of people had to look up in their dictionaries, but it's a great word. A kerfuffle, which means, you know, a little bit of chaos, a little bit of craziness that will lead to some type of a Fed intervention.

5:47But, you know, again, because the week is really a focus on tariffs and a question about confidence, I want to state pretty clearly, I think the U.S. is still the best place in the world to invest by far. I think the challenge to some of the thesis that investors have had for not just decades, but but really for for, you know, I think over 100 years or more is is that we had a current a capital account surplus that is often offset our trade deficit. And that's a reflection of foreign capital that's been very happy financing our deficit, very happy investing here, very comfortable with U.S. risk.

6:27And I think for the most part that will remain. And not only is it because it's a relative improvement, but I think some of the things that are going on here, especially including conversations we've had on this show this week, where is the U.S. really trying to, is this administration trying to restructure the way the U.S. economy is built and make structural changes, which I don't agree with, but I do think there's a question that some people believe that some of that confidence has been eroded. I think it's going to take a lot to erode it overnight, and I do think we're in a dynamic where this week, the week-over-week move in treasuries reflects this, but I still think what's at least reassuring, First of all, that 10-year auction that came out on Wednesday was a very big moment for the markets this week.

7:14I think we've had – it was a pretty interesting week for CPI and PPI, right? Data actually was somewhat more benign and gave the Fed a little bit of room. I think we're going to have some slow in growth in this economy anyway, which historically might have been an opportunity to buy bonds. So let's see how next week goes. But I'm sure the headlines will remain confusing. And I think for equity investors, I don't think you have to do anything here. And I think that's something to think about. Yeah, I agree that I don't think the U.S. is going to lose its status as sort of the reserve currency or the safe haven of the world at this point.

7:47But at the same time, if you just take the other side of it, if you think that what the Trump administration has done, this is not going to be a political statement, I promise. If it is just so unusual and such a departure from what has been done in the past and has challenged the order, then why not rethink the U.S. as the safe haven? Why not rethink the safety of U.S. treasuries if we are going through a tremendous and extraordinary period of transition here? Well, or at least diversify some, right? Just change the allocation a little bit, right? And on the margin, if you have that on a big scale, then that moves things.

8:23It's broader than just from an economic standpoint. I mean, think what's going on in the last month or two prior to this tariff thing. I mean, we are really questioning or a lot of our allies are questioning our commitment to things like NATO. So from a security standpoint, there's so many different ways in which this has really hurt America's standing in the world. Make no mistake about it, because I think a lot of our allies, first and foremost, think, why are you turning this on us when we could actually make a more of a unified front against something that we all agree with is a bit of a problem?

8:52And that's China. You know what I mean? So I think, you know, no matter what side of the aisle you're on, everybody feels like, yeah, there's a way in which to reorient global trade and put us in a better position. But the way in which they're doing it, I don't think is it. And we heard the start of this week, you know, from all of these hedge fund guys, big hedge fund guys and guys like Jamie Dimon, who took a stand on Wednesday. I think all of them agree that there are problems to be fixed. But the way in which they've gone about it, it's not correct. And it might do some lasting damage. For more on this bond market turmoil, let's bring in Subhadra Rajapa, Societe Generale's head of U.S.

9:25rate strategy. Subhadra, great to have you with us. What do you think is behind this turmoil in the bond market? recently? So a variety of factors, right? You are seeing investors use the treasury market as a collateral for some of their assets. So there's been some unwind of those positions and selling of treasuries. But to me, what's really concerning is the fact that the trading ranges are quite wide. You're looking at 10 E-E-E-L's just today trading between 435 and 465. So that kind of volatility to me is quite troubling. Initially, the reaction of the bond market was that we saw a flight to quality as equity started rallying.

10:12But now you're starting to see foreign investors sell treasuries. You're starting to see other types of investors actually repatriate that cash away from the U.S. to Swissies and other currencies. So there's a broad variety of dynamics that are driving the price action in the bond market. But it's quite troubling. At what point do you think there's talk now of Fed intervention? So what point do you think that happens, that this is problematic, that it is not orderly, and that something has to be done? If there is a gap move higher in yields, for instance, we're, like I said, we have we've had a massive intraday volatility today in a day when we did not get a top-tier data.

10:58We had the Michigan survey, the University of Michigan survey, and then you had PPI, but nothing in the data should really move the market as much as it did. If you do see that sort of price action where we sort of break through some key technical levels, and before you know it, we're approaching 10-year yields at 5 percent, then that's troubling. Again, the Fed is going to look at a variety of metrics. They're going to look at the liquidity in the bond market. They're going to see what the price action is and intervene only if needed. Subhadra, extraordinary week for currencies, as we've talked about.

11:34I mean, the move in the Swiss franc. I mean, once again, it looks like the Swiss really is the gold standard and literally in a week when gold has gone to record highs. But I brought up before that some of this is unprecedented. We've all seen plenty of market cycles. But the part about this is usually when we've seen a massive dislocation in the Treasury market, it's been Fed induced. And it's been uncertainty around that. And there have been technical reasons, too. But this is one where the Fed has been laying low and that, if anything, the Fed is seen as someone stepping in. So the precedent here for the U.S.

12:08bond market, if you believe that that is what it is, why is that? What is creating this precedent? because I think we've danced around it here. And I'm just curious, you're in those markets every day. Yeah, this is a very unusual crisis, right? Typically when you see a crisis like what we saw back in March of 2020 or the financial crisis, or even going back to the tech bubble, typically you tend to see treasuries act as that safe haven bet. So investors sell equities and they put their money into the bond market. This time around, the Fed has told us that they really are stuck between a rock in a hard place with inflation as high as it is, they're just not able to come in and cut rates quickly if needed.

12:50They're going to be very careful on the policy front. Then you have to look at what the policy, at least the policies put forth from the Trump administration on the trade side is going to be somewhat inflationary. If inflation starts to pick up and growth starts to go lower, that really puts the Fed in a very, very tight spot. So the Fed is not in a position to really act if they need to and cut rates. So that's when I think it gets a little bit tricky. And investors are getting a little bit skittish because you're seeing these unwinds of positions and margin calls and foreigners stepping away from the Treasury market, and that makes it very difficult.

13:34But it's the long end of the curve, by the way. You know, it's really, we all say all the time, it's not really what the Fed controls. So what we're most worried about is the long end of the curve, which is a combination of a lot of things. But look, it's premium risk. It's duration risk thrown in the United States of America. And so when I say, you know, unprecedented, those are my words. But if you agree with that, I mean, there's got to be a, you know, unprecedented has to equal something. And, you know, I guess, again, is it policy? Yeah, no, I mean, you're seeing a pretty decent pickup or rise in term premium.

14:02And in this route in the equity market, what you're seeing is investors are fleeing towards bonds or JGBs and that Treasury bond spread, Treasury JGB spread is widening out, which is very, very unusual because the safe haven bid typically comes to Treasury. So we are in a very, very sort of unusual situation this time around. And I think we're really playing with fire because ultimately, if there is an erratic move in the bond market and yields, you know, start going high and start heading towards 5 percent, it really will roil all the other markets and corporate, corporate, high yield equities, all of the other markets.

14:44Because, you know, the Treasury market is really the bedrock of the U.S. financial system. So you really need to see that stability. Right. May 7th, next Fed meeting. The prediction markets are ticking up on the potential for Jerome Powell to be fired. And, you know, that would cause quite a kerfuffle, Tim. And so I'm just curious, like, how do you think yields would react to that in the 10 year if the president obviously keeps berating, you know, the Fed chair Powell to lower interest rates? And that's something that I suspect is going to go right up until May 7th. And depending upon what is said right afterwards, what would that mean for the markets?

15:22I don't view that as a good sign because, you know, Jerome Powell has acted as a voice of reason. Even today, when Collins, the Boston Fed president, came in and said that they have all the tools to deal with the liquidity crisis, the market immediately reacted. So, you know, a steady hand coming from the Fed is going to be very, very important in an environment like this. you're having a lot of changes that the markets are starting to absorb on the trade and tariff front. The last thing you want to see is a change in leadership in the Fed. Subhajra, thanks for coming by. I appreciate it. Subhajra Rajapa, Societe Generale.

16:00Well, the first group of big banks reporting earnings of the season this morning. J.P. Morgan, BlackRock, Morgan Stanley all higher after the results, while Wells Fargo was down about a percent. On the docket next week, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America and Citigroup, along with regional banks. What can we expect from those names, Karen? Well, of course, I listened to the J.P. Morgan call. Obviously. Obviously. I mean, it was an interesting call. It was a great, great quarter, but that doesn't really matter at all. I mean, he talked about the kerfuffle, the uncertainty, right? There was just a very, very tiny increase in non-performing, on reserves.

16:38But that's not any information because that was as of March 30th, right? They did. He did talk some about hopeful that the deregulation will allow banks to do some of the things they can't do and be able to operate more efficiently. So that would be good for the shareholders. That would also allow them to make more loans. But I think it's just uncertainty. There's murkiness out there. And I think the stock had just come down too far. It was a little bit of relief rally. You know, I think it didn't you know, bad news would have been bad. It was good news for the quarter, but it was kind of irrelevant also.

17:12So I'm not sure what the read through is. I think if they don't have clarity, who's going to have clarity? Or even if you think you have clarity, why would you even say you had any clarity? The theme across the board, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley and J.P. Morgan was, you know, their customers or clients are taking a wait and see approach. And that's sort of what we've heard from every company that has reported so far. Yeah. One more thing I want to add. They're going to have enormous trading revenues, but those those don't get a multiple. Right. Those are kind of a one off thing. But that'll help a little for this current quarter.

17:40Look, we've the most uncertain. It is obvious, I guess, so master the obvious here. But we haven't had this uncertainty in terms of the economy and corporate earnings since COVID. And in some sense, this is even different because, you know, at some point we knew also which sectors were more immediately impacted by COVID. There were obviously a handful of folks that did very well. If you think back to the money center banks and you think how they're positioned for a slowdown, a recession, the first thing you think about with banks is credit. And you think about, in some cases, some that have more exposure than others.

18:08I mean, Citibank, which is a bank of long and a bank, I think, you know, prior to all of this had the most to gain by deregulation and re-rating. Twenty five percent of their exposure really is to credit card and credit card. That's not as good as Bank of America's, for example. So I think there's ways to look at this. I think if you look at money center banks, they have cheapened up quite a bit. I mean, they were starting to again, they were starting to re-rate. But money center banks are here like one and a half times priced a tangible book. Cheap, but, you know, not you know, not that cheap.

18:38And we know banks tend to overshoot to the downside. You know, one last thing I'll just say, you know, on the deregulation front, for some reason, investors kind of sniffed it out that it wasn't going to be as good as expected. Look at the KRE, so the regional banking index. It topped out in late November, you know, and it's down 30 percent since then and really has not rallied a whole heck of a lot over the course of this week. So it'll be really interesting to me more so what those banks have to say. We've got a news alert on some new additions to Meta's board. Let's go to Kate Rooney, who's got the details.

19:05Hey, Kate. Hey, Mel. So Meta is adding two new board members. We have Patrick Collison. He's the co-founder and CEO of Stripe, the privately held fintech and payments giant, and Dina Powell McCormick. She's a former member of the Trump White House. She was the former deputy national security advisor of the U.S. She also spent about 16 years in leadership positions at Goldman Sachs, was a partner there. This is all effective April 15th. Mark Zuckerberg, of course, the founder and CEO of Meta saying in a statement that Patrick and Dina bring, quote, a lot of experience supporting businesses and entrepreneurs to our board.

19:44Meta's up about 12 percent of the week. And I don't see it moving much on this news, Mel, but some some board updates over there for Meta. Back to you. All right, Kate. Thanks. Kate Rooney. Karen. Yeah. Well, Dina Powell-McCormick, that's, you know, we talked about Mark Zuckerberg moving right to the right. She's married to Senator McCormick from Pennsylvania, and it worked in the Bush administration many years ago. So that's an interesting pick if that's sort of where they're going. Right. Coming up, GM halting production, laying off workers at an EV plant in Canada. What is behind the move after the break?

20:18Plus, we're digging for profits after a big call on gold from UBS. The winners in the mining space next. This is Fast Money with Melissa Lee, right here on CNBC.

20:39Welcome back to Fast Money. Trump's tariff plan taking a toll on automaker stocks this month. Another victim, the workers facing drastic cuts to their UAW profit-sharing checks. Phil LeBeau's got the details on this. Phil. And Melissa, last night, the UAW president, Sean Fain, said that there would likely be lower profit sharing checks this year. Big surprise. That's because we are expecting the profits of the big three, the traditional big three, to take a hit this year. How much is anyone's guess? But look at the profit pressure that the three automakers are facing. We're talking about GM, Ford and Stellantis.

21:12Tariff costs. We don't know exactly what they are at this point. They will have lower margins. Almost everybody agrees about that. And the industry sales, they could drop. Goldman was out with a note this week saying, look, we thought it was going to be 16.3 million vehicles sold in the U.S. this year. We think it's probably going to be closer to 15.4. And I can tell you, Melissa, I've talked with a number of people in the industry who would not be surprised if it drops all the way down to 15 million. Meanwhile, General Motors making news today saying that it is going to halt bright drop van production.

21:42This is according to Reuters. That van is built in Canada. They only sold 101 in the first quarter. According to the article, and we reached out to General Motors, have not heard back from them. The reason is because of slow sales. Well, let's also be clear here. It's built in Canada. Who knows what the tariff implications are here? So General Motors making that decision. Finally, take a look at shares of Tesla. It is halting China orders for U.S. built models. Which models are those? The S and the X. This is not going to have big moves, big implications for the bottom line at Tesla. Yes, they can ship them from here in the U.S.

22:17to China, but that's a low volume. Both of those are low volume vehicles, Melissa. But what we're seeing, Melissa, this is what we're going to see in the auto industry. The automakers are picking and choosing what do we want to continue making somewhere and dealing with the tariffs. If it's low volume or low profit, maybe we put it on pause for a while. Right. Phil, thank you. Phil LeBeau. Karen, we were just discussing that in the context of the UBS and Goldman moves on GM yesterday, how GM in the past has selectively decided which markets to be in and not in based on economics. And this time is no different.

22:53Tariffs are changing how you calculate what is profitable. Right. And I'm also concerned about how profitable, right? They have the ability to make a ton of money, we know, in a different market. Right. But I'm concerned not just for them, for all the automakers. It's the complexity of it is astounding to me, even though we did get a reprieve from some of the USMCA, the Canada and Mexico tariffs. But still, it's such a complicated. They're still importing. And then we're going to have a consumer who is also really feeling the pinch. Yeah. Right. But it's interesting. So Phil mentioned, you know, China, Tesla, they're not exporting over there.