In short
Fast Money episode covering market moves and major corporate/government headlines: Apple CEO Tim Cook stepping down (John Ternus becomes CEO Sept 1), Fed nominee Kevin Warsh’s Senate confirmation dynamics, Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-Darimer leaving government, QXO’s planned $17B acquisition of TopBuild, Amazon’s $25B investment in Anthropic (plus $100B AWS commitment), Eli Lilly’s up-to $7B acquisition of CAR-T firm Colonia, and a Wall Street mentalist segment.
Guests (backgrounds)
Dan Ives (Wedbush Global Head of Tech Research); Steve Leisman (financial/political reporter); Jared Holes (Mizuho Healthcare Specialist); Wall Street mentalist Oz Perlman (performer/entertainer).
Key claims
Apple transition won’t justify trading the stock immediately; investors expect AI monetization via iPhone/services, not in-house LLMs; Warsh’s optimism may not change rate-cut expectations; QXO consolidation benefits distributors; Amazon-AWS deal aims to relieve Anthropic infrastructure strain; Lilly diversifies beyond obesity drugs with CAR-T.
Notable examples
WWDC/Siri revamp expectations; services multiple vs hardware multiple; Warsh nomination vote uncertainty; Oz Perlman’s “Bags of Money” mind-reading picks Boeing/Goldman and “Dec 8” birthday.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Chapters
Tap a time to open that second in VOTim Cook's Transition at Apple
1:51 to 4:00
Discussion on Tim Cook stepping down as CEO and the implications for Apple.
“CEO Tim Cook announcing he will step down as CEO and become executive chairman of the tech giant.”
Analyzing Apple's Future Leadership
4:00 to 4:59
Panelists share perspectives on the new CEO John Ternus and Apple's future.
“from a$400 billion revenue company to a trillion dollar revenue.”
The Shift Towards Hardware and AI
4:59 to 6:04
Panel discusses Apple's focus on hardware and the need for an AI strategy.
“introducing new products through which AI will be used as opposed to developing its own AI product, maybe this is the right guy for the job.”
Investor Implications of Apple's Changes
6:04 to 8:01
Discussion on how the leadership change could affect Apple investors.
“You don't want them to go chasing after the$200 billion CapEx number, you know, some of its peers.”
Future of Apple's Hardware and Services
8:01 to 14:00
Exploration of how Apple's hardware focus impacts its software and services.
“Well, Guy and I were talking before the show when we heard the news about.”
Apple's Leadership Transition and Investor Sentiment
14:00 to 16:46
Discussion on the transition from Tim Cook to Ternus as CEO and its implications for Apple's stock.
“And you put it up there with Musk and you put it up there with Nadella and you put it up there with, you know, we're sort of Hall of Fame type CEOs.”
The Legacy of Tim Cook and Apple's Future
16:46 to 17:33
Reflections on Tim Cook's legacy and the challenges Ternus faces in his new role.
“Remember, though, the backdrop when Tim Cook took over in 2011.”
Kevin Warsh's Nomination Hearing Insights
17:33 to 18:58
Overview of Kevin Warsh's upcoming Senate hearing and his views on the economy and Fed policies.
“Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh testifying at a Senate confirmation hearing tomorrow.”
Political Dynamics Affecting Warsh's Nomination
18:58 to 21:06
Discussion on the political landscape surrounding Warsh's nomination and potential delays.
“But I don't think it's crazy to think that he would agree that it's a time for the Fed to pause at least for now.”
Uncertainty in Markets Regarding Warsh's Appointment
21:06 to 22:56
Analysis of how uncertainty surrounding Warsh's confirmation could impact financial markets.
“in part because Tillis has been very strong on this issue.”
Show all 21 chapters
Uncertainty in Markets Regarding Warsh's Appointment
24:06 to 24:31
Analysis of how uncertainty surrounding Warsh's confirmation could impact financial markets.
“Choose Power Home Remodeling and remodel how you think about remodeling.”
Labor Secretary's Departure and Its Implications
25:16 to 26:18
Breaking news on the resignation of Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-Darimer amid scrutiny.
“We've got some breaking news on Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-Darimer.”
QXO's Acquisition Strategy in the Housing Market
26:18 to 28:00
Insights on QXO's acquisition plans and their impact on the housing industry.
“Kristi Noem at DHS and Pam Bondi at the Justice Department.”
Amazon and Anthropic Partnership Insights
28:00 to 29:55
Discussion about Amazon's strategic investment in Anthropic and its implications.
“So I think he's going to do, I mean, he's masterful at his job.”
Market Reactions to Earnings Reports
29:55 to 31:48
Analysis of various companies' earnings results and stock market performance.
“Well, there's been talk that Anthropic wants to go public.”
Eli Lilly's Aggressive Acquisitions
32:56 to 37:12
Exploration of Eli Lilly's recent acquisition strategy and its market implications.
“Stocks kicking off the week in the red but finishing well off their lows of the day.”
Mind Reading with Wall Street Mentalist
37:12 to 42:01
Ose Perlman performs mentalism for Fast Money traders, revealing insights through mind reading.
“He said that like he was admitting something that people would look down upon.”
Mentalist Reveals Stock Predictions
42:01 to 46:31
A mentalist performs a live stock prediction, shocking the hosts with accuracy.
“From May, June, July, August, September, October, November, December, see yourself flipping through the calendar, stopping one month, one day, and you circle that day, see yourself doing that right this second.”
Earnings Season Kickoff
46:31 to 46:46
Discussion on upcoming earnings reports from major companies and market implications.
“Welcome back to Fast Money Earnings Season.”
Insights on Key Companies
46:46 to 48:21
Panelists share their insights on significant companies reporting their earnings.
“All four of those stocks are negative since the start of the year.”
Final Trades and Predictions
48:21 to 49:24
The panel shares their final trade recommendations as the show wraps up.
“While Top Build had its acquisition, installed building products is its competitor, and I think it's good news for the company to have it taken up.”
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:00At Edward Jones, we believe rich isn't about having life all figured out.
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1:28Tim Seymour:alone before his big show at Nerd Prom this weekend. Wall Street mentalist Oz Perlman is taking on traders right here on set. Can he crack into the thoughts of Guy Adami? And do we really want to know what's going on in there or not going on? You won't want to miss this. I'm Melissa Leaconte, live from Studio B at the NASDAQ. On the desk tonight, Guy Adami, Dan Nathan, Karen Feinerman and Julie Beal. We start off with the breaking news on Apple. CEO Tim Cook announcing he will step down as CEO and become executive chairman of the tech giant. Effective September 1st, senior vice president of hardware engineering, John Ternus, will take over as chief executive.
2:05Tim Seymour:Cook, remember, became CEO in 2011. Shares are up almost 2 ,000 percent since then. The stock is just stepping back a little bit, down about eight-tenths of a percent. That's basically been the reaction since the news broke in just the last hour. Guy, what's your take here?
2:21Melissa Lee:Well, Melissa, see, people might not notice we're all in different seats tonight. It's all for cocked. But with that said, I don't think you trade on the back of this. I saw you had Gene Munster on before. He said it's about two years earlier than they thought. But I think, listen, the company is mature enough, deep enough bench where I don't think this is necessarily stock moving. There are reasons to be bullish. There are reasons to be bearish. But I don't think this is reason to trade the stock either way.
2:47Tim Seymour:What are your thoughts? Similar, I think. I mean, first, I think you've got to give tribute to Tim Cook for managing in this era that he has. I mean, he seemed to be the right CEO for the right time. And Cook was obviously the visionary. Not Cook, I'm sorry. Steve Jobs was obviously the visionary and created these products. But then building them around the world, getting them to people around the world, dealing with administrations. It's funny if you would think about it. I can't see Jobs and the Trump administration actually getting along that well and having that be very productive. But Tim Cook seems to have a masterful sense of how to handle almost any kind of scenario like that.
3:26So I think not much to do on it. I wouldn't trade on it. I think that, to me, the story hasn't changed.
3:36Melissa Lee:If you're a long-term investor, you've had those 2 ,000 percent gains just in the last 15 years or so. So you can't be unhappy about too much. But I think the timing of this makes a lot of sense if you think about it. Mel, you just said in the last hour it's approaching their 50-year anniversary, and we talk about round numbers all the time. It doesn't really mean anything when it comes to a company. But if you think about what's happening over the next 10 years, the next 20 years, I mean, it's going to be a different set of products that really make this company go from a$400 billion revenue company to a trillion dollar revenue.
4:03Melissa Lee:And that's going to happen. Make no mistake about it. We've got 2 billion people on the planet are addicted to their Apple products. But they haven't had a lot of hits on the hardware front, if you think about it, over the last five to seven years or so. So I think the main, the biggest products, I think, since Tim Cook took over was maybe AirPods. It wasn't Vision Pro. It wasn't, I mean, the watches, but it's not a massive, massive market right now for them. It's still a great market if you think about it in revenue terms. But again, they've created this ecosystem. People are kind of hooked on it.
4:32Melissa Lee:But what does it look like in an AI world when a lot of companies, you know, Johnny Ive sold his company to Sam Altman for$6 billion. They didn't have a product. But it is focused on hardware. And hardware from OpenAI is going to be squarely set on taking on Apple. And I think it's going to take a new set of leadership and a new vision to do that.
4:50Tim Seymour:Yeah. And Julie, you know, if you believe, you know, John Ternus is a hardware guy, so to speak. And if you believe that the next chapter for Apple is heavily on the hardware side, introducing new products through which AI will be used as opposed to developing its own AI product, maybe this is the right guy for the job. I don't know if you think that is the right thing for Apple. Do you? I just think it's very telling, right? Because what we're hearing is we're moving in a direction we want a change in guard because we recognize that the next chapter is going to be different, but we're choosing a hardware guy, even though a lot of the growth, I would argue, in the stock price has been this transition more towards software and services.
5:30So to me, it's a little bit of a question. And I think what it really reflects is, look, we're not actually going to be developing these large language models in-house. What we are going to do is to continue to focus on what we do best, which is building the physical products that allow us to connect to all of these incredible software tools and leverage what everyone else is doing, let them do all of these crazy investments. We want to maintain these high levels of profitability and CapEx. We're going to go this direction. I think it's just a clear stake in the ground of we're not going to build our own LLMs.
6:04Tim Seymour:Which I would think for a lot of investors is a relief. You don't want them to go chasing after the$200 billion CapEx number, you know, some of its peers. Well, particularly if there's seven other guys doing it. Right. Which there are. Right. So and I can't see all of them having viable businesses spending that much money for so long. So I mean, so far, it seems like the strategy has been a good one. I'm not I'm not long the stock. I think it's expensive. We always talk about the software multiple versus the hardware multiple. I understand to get software, that's good. You need a hardware product, right, to have a platform, literally.
6:41But so I think this, it sounds like this is the right man for the job at this time.
6:48Melissa Lee:Yeah, going back to, let's say, the App Store, you know, we got to go back 15 years or probably more than that. I mean, in many ways, the iPhone served as an unlock for that services. All the, You know, let's call them agents right now because that's really what they were all these apps that came out And that really is going to be the thing where Apple's going to grow into a multiple above a hardware multiple if like Developers and you know a whole host of big companies can come up with agents or Applications that work on top of AI on the device where they didn't have to again go back and spend You know maybe a half a trillion dollars to train those models and get them out into the world I mean they really are going to go license of things that actually work on their hardware suite to products, and they're going to make a lot of money with the applications that are built on top of the tech.
7:31Melissa Lee:So you wonder, I mean, I'm just throwing this out because we're having a conversation, right? They report on April 30th. Today is the 20th. Oh, I know where you're going. Yeah. How do you know?
7:39Tim Seymour:That this quarter is going to be a great quarter because he's retiring.
7:42Melissa Lee:Yeah, that's exactly right. And it's fair to say that, you know, do this today, set the tone for an earnings release on the 30th, give it enough time where people can parse through and have some gangbuster quarter that you can go out on top. So, yes, you're in my head the same way that owes Kat. Well, we'll see about that. Well, Guy and I were talking before the show when we heard the news about. So the stock was down, I don't know, three or four bucks or so bouncing around. If you're the CEO and you announce that news for your ego, what's the right amount that you want the stock to trade down?
8:15I sort of came up with seven percent. Seven percent. Like it's a hit. OK. But OK, it's not, you know, the company will be absolutely fine. I think like five. I would have said five. OK, five. Nice number. And then have it, you know, rally back.
8:27Tim Seymour:Right. Right. But it's to be like, who cares? It's sort of disappointing. Right. Unless maybe it says he's does such a great job building. Exactly. And the transition. He's always been. It hasn't been the Tim Cook show. No. It's been Apple show. Yeah. For more on this news, Wedbush Global Head of Tech Research, Dan Ives, joins us on the Fast Line. Dan, great to have you with us. I got some of your thoughts ahead of this phone call. It's interesting. You think that he was somehow pushed out, that there was a push for change at the top? Look, I mean, I think you look at this a few ways. One, well, Cook's legacy, these are big shoes to fill.
9:06OK, so, I mean, return is there's going to be a lot of pressure on him, especially when it comes to AI strategy and hardware. Look, there's also growing pressure to hand the reins off. And I think what Guy talked about is true. I think you're going to have a very strong quarter. But then also talk about WWDC. I think Cook ultimately feels the pieces are in place on AI to hand the reins, especially with grilling pressure from the outside to show an AI strategy.
9:40Tim Seymour:So you think that the quarter will be good and WWDC should have some positive developments when it comes to the revamped Siri? Yeah, I mean, I think that will be the sort of breadcrumbs here. Because Cook is not going to leave as CEO, despite, you know, obviously there was a lot of frustration in terms of what we've seen in terms of AI strategy and them basically missing out the last few years. he's not going to hand the reins off and the baton if he doesn't feel like the strategy is in place to be successful in theory. That said, look, the timing is a surprise. The view is he was going to stay on maybe for another year.
10:22He's even sort of made comments about it in terms of staying. So the timing is a surprise. And that's why as an investor, Cook, these are big shoes to fill. You don't just fill it with anyone. I think that's going to be some of the questions out there.
10:38Tim Seymour:How does the choice of Ternus educate you about what the next chapter at Apple will look like? Yeah, I think this is obviously doubling down on hardware. And this is basically saying like, OK, this less about services. Hardware is ultimately going to be where we Apple view ourselves or we're going to continue to be successful. Now, on the hardware side, in some ways you could say that they've not been innovative. On other ways, you could say Ternus has really been a core part of the DNA, just like Jobs went to Cook, Cook going to Ternus. That's a smooth transition. So it makes a ton of sense culturally, but then obviously the big thing is going to really be what's the AI strategy?
11:24Because at the end of the day, the success for Apple, it's not going to be about hardware, foldable, and new hardware development. It's going to be about how do you monetize 2.5 billion iOS devices when it comes to AI. That's really what the street is focused on.
11:41Melissa Lee:Hey, Dan, what does it mean, though, for their hardware for the next year or so? We know that iPhone is coming up on a big anniversary. I know they want to make a big splash on the hardware front. But if they whiff on Apple intelligence for the third year in a row, might that put them in the penalty box a little bit with consumers who are expecting a device that might look like something that's coming from Google or maybe something that we haven't even thought of from, let's say, an open eye or something like that? Yeah. It's a great look. If they whiff third time in a row, it will make this Mets losing streak look good.
12:14So the point is there's a lot of pressure. There's a lot of pressure on WWDC. There's a lot of pressure for them, not just on the anniversary from a hardware perspective, but to actually now come through on the AI front in terms of WWDC. And it just comes down to, like, Cook would not leave as CEO if he didn't feel the pieces were in place to be successful there. And that going back to like what God put in terms like the quarter, but more importantly, in terms of WWDC that they don't whiff. And he feels and we'll see more about this. What's around the corner. That's why they're doing this now.
12:55All right, Dan.
12:56Melissa Lee:So 27 times Karen mentioned the multiple, whether it's expensive or not. I mean, that's what the market is rewarding them. Services seemingly in terms of overall revenue is topped out around 26 percent. Do you need to see an acceleration there to get closer to 30 % in order to justify the multiple? Is that sort of the number? No, I mean, it's about how you get an incremental 10%, 15 % from services because of AI. Because ultimately consumers, when they go through the AI transition that consumers are going to go through, a lot of that's going to go through an Apple device. Apple is basically, they're the toll collector on the highway for consumers.
13:37That will show up in services, not in hardware. Now, to some of the other points, like, look, when you have an AI-enabled phone, that will ultimately, let's say not this time, but over the next year, that would sort of be the golden goose. But that's going to be the pressure on turners. And the point is that, Cook, these are big, big shoes to fill. And you put it up there with Musk and you put it up there with Nadella and you put it up there with, you know, we're sort of Hall of Fame type CEOs. And I think that ultimately will be the pressure, but then also the opportunity for someone like Ternus that understands the culture of Apple as well as anyone.
14:19It's Karen. Thanks for being on. Just sticking with the hardware software question, if there is more of a hardware focus, we know hardware multiples are very different than software multiples. Do you think Apple should still will still trade at a high multiple? Yeah, well, I think hardware is the core hearts and lungs of Apple, given the iPhone. But for Apple to be a 350, 400 hour stock, it's not getting there in hardware, getting there in software and services. And I think that that's the message investors want to see in that. But for a hardware-centric, like Teterna, that has to be the narrative.
15:00Because for investors, that really right now is the focus in terms of on the AI front. And I think, you know, in terms of handing the baton now, you don't just hand the baton just to have a sort of treadmill approach. He's going to ultimately have to come out and basically say, okay, next year, AI, services. what the product strategy is in terms of, you know, with an AI-enabled phone, you can't have any whiffs, especially given you'll have a CEO that really has not proven it.
15:35Tim Seymour:Dan, at the same time, you said that he has to, you know, come out and say something really positive when it comes to the software front to be a$350 stock. You already have a$350 price target on the stock. So this is the expectation that is embedded in your investment case already. Does anything change with Ternus, the hardware guy, being elevated to CEO? Look, the confidence in Apple is there's a tick down with Ternus versus Cook. You can't put him on the same level. Now, the point is, can he prove it? Yeah. Do I think he could be successful doing it? Yeah. But investors, there will be some skepticism because you're trying to fill shoes of one of the best CEOs really in modern day history.
16:29So that is something that you don't just all of a sudden snap the fingers and get to. There will be skepticism. And when Cook is ultimately stumbled, investors get benefit of the doubt. Here, you're not going to get benefit of the doubt because it's unproven. Right.
16:46Tim Seymour:Dan, thanks for your thoughts. We do appreciate it. Thank you. Dan Ives. Remember, though, the backdrop when Tim Cook took over in 2011. He was met with great skepticism, filling enormous legendary shoes of Steve Jobs. And yet here we are, 2 ,000 percent leader. Well, he cut his own path. He wasn't the innovator. Right. Right. And he wasn't the visionary and he wasn't the sort of cult of personality that Steve Jobs was. But God, did he do a fantastic job running, growing the business, taking it worldwide.
17:18Melissa Lee:Again, I think a visionary, absolutely. But irreplaceable, as the old saying goes, the cemetery is filled with irreplaceable people. So, I mean, Apple will get through this. And again, I think the setup 10 days before earnings suggests the quarter is going to surprise people to the upside.
17:33Tim Seymour:All right. Let's turn now to Washington. Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh testifying at a Senate confirmation hearing tomorrow. inflation, monetary policy, and his own finances sure to be top of mind for lawmakers. Let's get to Steve Leisman for more on all this. Hey, Steve. Hey, Melissa. Yeah, Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh is going to strike a note of optimism about the outlook for the U.S. economy in the Senate hearing tomorrow, while at the same time criticizing the very same Fed that he hopes to join. He says it's a time of great consequence for the U.S. economy and the most significant hinge point in a couple of generations.
18:02Economic growth potentially, he says, is rising. All that optimism comes from his belief in the promise of artificial intelligence, born of a strong background in tech investment, alongside relationships with leading investors, including Peter Thiel, Mark Andreessen, and Jerry Yang, founder of Yahoo, along with Alex Carve from Palantir. Warsh's testimony also struck familiar themes of criticism of the central bank since he left as a Fed governor in 2011, including its trade into fiscal and social policies. Warsh will say Fed independence is essential, but should work with the administration on some aspects of Fed business.
18:34Some of these ideas could spark controversy at the hearing from some senators, as well as the FOMC later, where there are some opposing ideas, guys, about how bullish to be on productivity and how closely the Fed should be working with the administration. Melissa?
Read the full transcript
18:48Tim Seymour:Do we have any gleaning glances into how he might perceive the energy shock or maybe lack of energy shock in the economy? Well, I don't think so right now because he hasn't spoken since then, But I don't think it's crazy to think that he would agree that it's a time for the Fed to pause at least for now. But he eventually is going to want to bring rates down. It is interesting, Melissa. We talked about this in the last hour. I want to show you some numbers here. The stock market's recovered from the pre-war levels. But if you look at it, the outlook for the Fed has not recovered. We had like a 75 percent chance of there being 50 basis points by December 2026.
19:29Now there's only a 44 percent chance of there being 25, so less than 50 percent. The market still remains wary of Fed cuts this year, even if Kevin Warsh is the Fed chair. Steve, it's Karen. Thanks for being on. So how do you think this plays out in terms of his in terms of his nomination and actually becoming the governor? Do you think Piro pulls the suit? How do what do you expect to happen? Karen, the whole darn thing is surreal. OK, he's going for a nomination hearing where it is generally agreed and believed that there will be no vote. And that vote could take place as late as after. Let's say that Janine Pirro, the Washington district attorney, does not appeal the case.
20:12Well, they could have the vote any time if she decides to drop it. If she appeals it, it could go on for a very long time, so long as Tillis. And by the way, it isn't just Tillis. Other members of the banking committee, they haven't said if they would stop the nomination on the Republican side. But there are Republicans in the general Senate that would not advance the nomination as long as this criminal investigation into Powell goes on. I have seen some estimates that Warsh may not take his chair until the fall, perhaps.
20:45Tim Seymour:You know, it's Steve. In the last hour, you also said that perhaps Kevin Warsh will use his charm to convince Tillis to go ahead with a vote. But maybe it is the market force that will convince Jeanine Pirro not to appeal and seeing how he plays out in the markets will actually force that hand. That is possible. I mean, I do think it's a it's a low probability event that Warsh convinces Tillis to let the nomination go forward, in part because Tillis has been very strong on this issue. As for market forces convincing Janine Pirro, the problem you get into, Melissa, is how do you game out her backing down?
21:21It's very hard to see that. It looks like she's going to have to go through the appeals process and get struck down by the district court or get told to go ahead. And the worst possible outcome for Warsh and the president is if Janine Pirro wins. Why? Why? Because what she's fighting for is the ability to do a subpoena to continue the investigation. Listen to me. I'm now I'm now a legal reporter. But the story the story would be she would then go, OK, now we can do the subpoena, get all this information, consider an indictment. And then we go forward from there, which is, you know, that's months and months and months in the legal process.
21:59Tim Seymour:Yeah. And the longer Powell will stay in the chair, potentially. Steve, thank you. Oh, sorry, Melissa. there could be another legal fight if the president has said he might fire Powell if he takes the job of chair. So we'll talk about that another day. But this may not be the end of the legal battles. What a tease. Steve, thanks. Steve Leisman. What do we want to hear from Warsh? What would play well in the markets?
22:25Melissa Lee:What would play well? I think you've heard enough. I think we know enough about Kevin to understand sort of where he sits, understanding what what the environment is right now. Now, he's smart enough to navigate this. I don't think you're going to hear anything that's going to just change or assuage your concerns to some of the people that might not vote for him. But what Steve's saying might not see him to the fall. I don't think that's bond market friendly. If you have this uncertainty from April, wherever we are, 20th until the fall of this year, I think that potentially could be a bond market negative reaction type thing.
22:56Yeah.
22:56Tim Seymour:Julie? Yeah, I agree. I think that's the biggest question is if we create all this uncertainty on top of uncertainty that we've already been experiencing, I don't think that's really positive. I really can't see Warsh saying anything that's going to be super problematic. I think it's interesting that he released his talking points ahead of time. That's a little bit unusual, but I think it kind of indicates where he's trying to posture in terms of pleasing the president, but also having a valid nomination and then earning the respect of the other governors on the board. We have a programming note here.
23:29Tim Seymour:Joe Kernan will be speaking with President Trump. It's tomorrow, 830 a.m. Eastern Time on Swapbox. It is an interview you will not want to miss. Coming up, a building bump, the construction supply deal boosting one distributor and how it bolsters QXO supply chain. And speaking of supply constraints, how the state of Homo's closure is already disrupting Guy's favorite holiday, even though it's 249 days away. the impact on China's so-called Christmas capital when Fast Money returns.
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24:46Tim Seymour:My community gives me the confidence to ask myself, what would you like the power to do? So every time I'm on the pitch, I play for more than myself. Oh, what a tackle from Naomi Gurma. Absolutely brilliant. Bank of America champions U.S. Women's National Team member Naomi Gurma and everyone who dares to ask, what would you like the power to do? Bank of America, proud to be the official Bank of U.S. Soccer. Bank of America N.A. Member FDSE. Welcome back to Fast Money. We've got some breaking news on Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-Darimer. Megan Cassell's got the details here. Megan. Melissa, the White House confirming just a few minutes ago that the Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-Darimer will be leaving the administration.
25:30White House Communications Director Stephen Chung posting on X that she'll be leaving the administration to take a position in the private sector and also announcing that Keith Sonderling, he's the current deputy secretary of labor, will be taking on the role of acting secretary in the interim. Now, Melissa, the New York Times, this comes after the New York Times and others had been reporting about how Chavez Reamer had been somewhat embattled inside her department.
25:53Tim Seymour:The subject reportedly of three different civil rights complaints targeting things like sexual harassment complaints against her husband, abuse of official resources, as well as a hostile work environment inside the department. investigations into all of those had been expected to wrap up soon. This resignation, or at least this exit from the administration coming amidst all of that. And after some remarkable stability inside the president's cabinet, now I will say this is the third secretary to be leaving the cabinet in just a little over the month following the exits of Kristi Noem at DHS and Pam Bondi at the Justice Department.
26:25Melissa.
26:26Tim Seymour:All right, Megan, thanks. Megan Pasella. Roofing products maker QXO announcing plans to acquire fellow building materials company, top-built for$17 billion. The deal would make QXO the second largest publicly traded distributor in the housing industry. Karen, this is a story you've been following for quite some time. QXO, we knew, was going to make acquisitions. That's what they do. That is their whole raison d 'etre, to find an industry and then consolidate. And, I mean, Brad Jacobs is great at it. You know, he started United Rentals. I mean, he's done so many things. This is what he said he was going to do.
27:01He's doing it. This is a big deal. I saw Sarah interview him today. She asked about, well, the market's, you know, housing isn't great. This has been a really difficult time. He said, but it's a great time to buy things. So he's really good at what he does. It's not cheap right here because the business, I mean, they haven't gotten going yet. But I'm intrigued and I'm long and I'm staying long and we'll see what he does. This is this is what he this is so in the crosses of exactly what he wanted to do.
27:27Tim Seymour:Yeah. The kind of company and the size of the company is a little bit different, apparently, according to many analysts who follow the company, compared to what he has done in the past. It's bigger than what he's done in the past, and it has a bigger labor component than other companies that he's acquired in the past. It requires the installation part of it. Well, he wants to scale this business quickly, right? And so I think also, remember, Home Depot and maybe Lowe's now are also competitors to do this very same thing. And so, I mean, they've been fighting over a couple of deals. So I think he's going to do, I mean, he's masterful at his job.
28:05Melissa Lee:You look at assets like third derivative, fourth derivative, and you say, OK, what could be out there in this world that's been underperforming? Look at Mohawk Industries. Again, this is third, fourth derivative, but that's a stock, if you go back and look, that's traded down to the lows we saw last April. In terms of market cap, not ridiculously expensive. I mean, there could be people out there saying, what are the tuck-ins on the back of things like this where people are looking at assets that are not at all-time highs, but maybe at a depressed level? So that's the first name that popped into my head.
28:34Tim Seymour:We've got a news alert on Amazon. It's announcing a partnership with Anthropic. Kate Rooney's got the details behind this popular stock that we're seeing after hours. Kate. Hey, Melissa. So Amazon now plans to invest up to$25 billion in Anthropic in a new strategic deal. They're going to be putting up$5 billion to start with the option of adding an additional$20 billion in the future. That's tied, they say, to unspecified commercial milestones. And as part of this, on the other side, Anthropic will commit to spending more than$100 billion on AWS over the next 10 years. And it will get access to Amazon's semiconductors with the option to purchase future generations of Amazon's custom silicon as that all becomes available.
29:14Amazon has been building out its suite of custom chips to really try to compete with NVIDIA. CEO Andy Jassy today in that press release, calling it out again as an area of seeing what he described as hot demand. Anthropic at the same time says the new investment will help them alleviate some of the inevitable strain on their infrastructure that they're seeing after a lot of the unprecedented consumer growth, as they describe it. That growth, they say, has impacted reliability. They talk about performance, especially during some of the peak hours. Amazon was an early backer of Anthropic with an$8 billion investment.
29:46But today's news, Mel, does come on the heels of Amazon's deal to invest up to$50 billion in Anthropic's rival, of course, OpenAI.
29:54Tim Seymour:Back over to you. All right, Kate. Thanks. Kate Rooney. Dan, what do you make of this news?
29:59Melissa Lee:Well, there's been talk that Anthropic wants to go public. And the last, I think, valuation was maybe$350 billion. And some of the talk is$800 billion. So if you can get$50 billion in at$350, post money$400, get a quick double. It's not about that, I don't think. I mean, again, I think a lot of people think that if these companies go public, they're going to be trillion-dollar market cap companies and not so distant future. But I think it's really about that$100 billion commitment to AWS. And that makes some sense. But it also says a little bit about Anthropic. And Kate just mentioned it. many folks think that they're a little bit behind the eight ball as it meant to build out their own infrastructure.
30:33Melissa Lee:So they were constrained to some degree. This should help that. I don't know what the valuation of this 25, 5 plus 20 over time is. So it would be interesting if it were at that same 320 when there are stories of that trading in secondary markets of 800. When you think about this very much setting up for an IPO, is it going to be at the same time? Who gets out first? Is it open AI or is it anthropic? Can they both go out at the same time? I think maybe not.
31:03Tim Seymour:That's a lot of supply to hit the market. It's a lot of supply. Yes. It'll be very interesting. Coming up, Lilly's dealmaking spree continues. The drugmaker, they are scooping up and how the company fits into its pipeline. More on the entire pharma trade when Fast Money returns.
31:48We'll be right back. roofing, and doors at powerhomeremodeling.com. Power, our work shows. A History of the United States in 100 Objects is a brand new podcast from 99 % Invisible and BBC Studios. Each week, we're looking at a different object from across American history with a unique story to tell about who we've been, what we've built, and what we've allowed ourselves to forget. Some of these objects are well-known, many are not, but all of them carry the story of how we got to this moment. Find a history of the United States in 100 objects on the 99 % Invisible Feed, wherever you get your podcasts.
32:24I want to grow the game so every kid can fall in love with soccer like I did. So I asked myself, what would you like the power to do?
32:32Melissa Lee:My answers inspired me to invent a pop-up soccer goal that can turn any basketball court into a street soccer pitch. Bank of America champion street soccer advocate Kyle Martino. And everyone who dares to ask, what would you like the power to do? Bank of America, proud to be the official bank of U.S.
32:50Tim Seymour:soccer and FIFA World Cup 2026. Bank of America and a member FDSP. Welcome back to Fast Money. Stocks kicking off the week in the red but finishing well off their lows of the day. The S &P and Nasdaq both down a quarter of a percent. The Nasdaq breaking a 13-day winning streak. The Dow virtually unchanged. WTI crude jumping, settling just below 90 bucks a barrel. Some after hours action to tell you about. Upsteel Dynamics, beating revenue expectations but falling short of earnings estimates. Zions Bank Corp, topping earnings expectations. And Alaska Air, missing estimates and suspending full-year guidance, quote, until conditions stabilize, citing ongoing fuel price volatility.
33:28Tim Seymour:And here's another check on shares of Apple. Tim Cook, in case you haven't heard the news, stepping down as CEO after 15 years as chief, with John Ternus to become CEO effective September 1st. Apple shares down about half a percent. Well, Eli Lilly closing almost a percent lower today, even after announcing plans to acquire privately held cancer drug maker Colonia. The deal is worth up to seven billion dollars, including an upfront payment of more than three billion and marks Lilly's third transaction this year in the 10 figure range. For more, let's bring in Mizuho Health Care Specialist Jared Holes.
34:01Tim Seymour:Jared, great to have you with us. Thank you. Are you surprised at how aggressive Lilly has been on the acquisition front? Wild Wild West and M &A. It seems like they're doing a deal a week. Sentessa a couple of weeks ago, they made a move last week, now$3 billion up front,$7 billion in total consideration for this. It's wild, but I think we're setting up for more, it would seem. Can you tell us how Colonia fits into the pipeline? Colonia is a CAR-T company. It has a therapy. I think it's phase one, is it, for multiple myeloma, which is a blood cancer. Yeah, investors seem pretty excited about it.
34:39I mean, they've had data at medical meetings in the past, and they do have a very big oncology business. It just gets overshadowed by the fact that this has become such a predominant obesity and cardiometabolic play. But it's an important business. They've done other transactions in oncology, hematology recently. So I think what they're what they're trying to do is not pivot today. But over time, I think they would like to become a little bit more diversified as investors. Think of them.
35:08Melissa Lee:This is not a criticism. I do the same thing. But all these acquisitions are hedged against potentially the commoditization and the loss of margins and GLP ones. I think so. I mean, I think you could look at it as offensive. They're in a great position to do deals. Why not do more of these two to 10 billion? You could do this, you know, 10 to 20 times over the next couple of years if you wanted to. Or defensive, because we know the fate of this industry, the weight loss industry at some point is loss of exclusivity. More competitors coming in. We've talked about the pricing degradation. So I think either way, it's probably smart.
35:42It's just not ready for prime time. So does the street like better? Do you think these kind of, OK, a payment up front and then a big payment on success at various stages? Is that the way we're going to see more and more of them? I know that's not totally new, but they've done a couple of them now. Yeah, there have been a bunch of these where there's an upfront and then based on milestones or these CVRs where you get paid more if something sort of data or revenue translate the way that you think it's going to. So it's become very popular. It kind of works for both parties.
36:13Tim Seymour:At this point, would you rather Novo or Eli Lilly? And does this make Novo look like they're just sort of stuck in the sand in terms of not being able to pull off a big deal? Yeah, I like Novo more. I just feel like the valuation, the conversation around the oral launch being not ignored, but certainly not heralded by investors. And they've got 400 ,000 patients on the drug. Lilly put out data where there was prescription data last week showing there are 1 ,300 patients on Lilly's. I just think we've gotten to the point where one company is getting no credit and one company is getting a lot. So that's why I just prefer Novo over the short term.
36:57And they haven't been all that aggressive, you know, in terms of business development. They bought a Carol last year. So that was something. But they keep on talking about wanting to make more moves in obesity or otherwise. So I think we should expect that at some point.
37:11Tim Seymour:Jared, great to see you. Thank you. Thank you. Jared Holes. He said that like he was admitting something that people would look down upon. He prefers Novo. But Novo is actually. Yeah, it's you and my junk. It's the end in your junk.
37:22Melissa Lee:The end in my junk. I don't even know what it is anymore.
37:24Tim Seymour:There's something everywhere with you. It's the end of my junk.
37:26Melissa Lee:The you and my junk is equally bleep. Look, I thought it turned the corner earlier. It did not. Last week and a half gives me an indication that maybe a rally in earnings, I think, on May 6th. And to Jared's point, it gets no credit whatsoever for their other businesses. They get penalized seemingly for being in GOP ones. But I think hopefully those days are over.
37:46Tim Seymour:Julie, Novo or Lily? Novo, I mean, when you look at those multiple differences, I totally agree that it's nice having a more diversified business. But to be trading at two and a half times a discount, that's just too far. And, you know, I still think that there is a lot of opportunity for these businesses. They're best positioned to be able to do these orals. And I just think, yeah, the gap is just too wide. All right. Coming up, get ready to have your mind blown. The Wall Street mentalist, Ose Perlman, is here and ready to wow us with some mind reading. If you've ever wanted to know what is really going on in Guy's head, well, he might be able to offer some insights.
38:25Tim Seymour:We are back in two.
38:32Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. Wall Street mentalist, Ose Perlman, taking his talents to the nation's capital this weekend. He will be a featured entertainer and host of this year's White House Correspondents Dinner. But before he hits D.C., he's going to try to tap the minds of our traders. O's joins us here on set. O's, welcome. It's great to have you. Thanks for having me back. I always love having you on. Always a pleasure. I mean, what is going to be the act? I mean, is President Trump going to be part of the act? Are you kidding me? I'm going to get to be in front of the most powerful person in the world, somebody nobody can read?
39:02That is the ultimate test for a mentalist. What is Donald Trump thinking that night? I think that's going to become the biggest reputation maker I've ever done, if I can guess how his mind works.
39:12Tim Seymour:Wow. So do you have it all planned out or is this something that you... It's jazz. I have it planned, but anything can happen. I mean, you notice he doesn't always stay on script. So I think if you get him, the level of authenticity and reality is just unreal. And it's live TV. It's going to be on live. You know what? I'm going to do something right now unprecedented on live TV. Are you ready? CNBC, I hope the president's watching. Casey Sullivan, are you watching? I'm going to do something no one's ever done. I'm going to pitch you a new show for CNBC right here, right now. I looked up your full lineup.
39:40Money movers. Fast money, mad money. Money, who knew, is the number one word used in your shows. So we've got to use, we're going to do this for me. Go like this. Rub the fingers. I need inspiration, baby. We need a show that's going to be the next big hit, perennial, evergreen hit. It's got to have the word money in it. When I clap my hands, I know there's pressure on, what is the next big hit show on CNBC? Tell me what it's called. You want me to say it? Yeah. Bags of money. That's not a bad name. Am I right? I feel like we've already got emojis. Bags of money. Sounds good to me. I'm getting game show vibes from this.
40:15Melissa Lee:Bags of money. Do you have cash? I do. Get up. Hold on, please. Look at this guy. Is that all C-notes? And a single. This guy's waiting to tip the, okay, you don't throw a bill down. Bam. Any one of them. I don't know. Yeah, go with something. I don't want to touch it. I don't want to lose the hundreds. Here's the game. Karen, Dan, I don't want to touch the bill. Okay, I'm going to move it over here, Rose. What if he could take this bill, he folds it up, and that old school game show Plinko where it goes down and ding, ding, ding. And at the bottom, I want you to imagine we've got large cap stocks.
40:46Each of you look and imagine all different sectors. And you watch ding, ding, ding, the dollar go down, bags of money to be won. And it lands on one stock for each of you. Each of you close your eyes. Wow. See that chip going down that dollar bill? Ding. And here's what I want you to do. Write down your stock. Write down your stock right now. Dan, Dan, doing that? And Karen, look this way at me. Hold it up close, Dan, so I don't see it. Karen was wistful. She was watching it. She thought it was going to go to the left, and it zigged to the right, and it stopped. And I think, I wonder if you discussed this company today.
41:16No way was it Apple. Too much action right now. Look at you trying to fake me out. Think in your mind, bullish or bearish? I won't say, but I can tell. You look down, not up. Not doing tech. No AI. We talk about AI too much. Boeing. Old school. Consistent. Is it Boeing? It is Boeing. It is Boeing. I knew it. I knew it. Right over here. Look this way at me. This is nuts. Karen comes from the world of finance. So where would her mind have gone? Where would her mind have gone? My inclination is I lead the witness. You said to yourself.
41:55Be honest. This is absolutely random. You have no reason for why you picked this stock. Are we in agreement? Correct. What are you thinking of? Tell me. Where did it land? What was that little ding, ding, ding? Bags of money. What did you get? What stock? Goldman Sachs. Goldman Sachs it is, everybody. Goldman Sachs, it is. That's unbelievable. And I wavered on J.P. Morgan. You wavered? I knew it. I said to go back and forth. Shout out to Jamie. You ready? Yes. When's the show coming out? This is the kicker. When's the show coming out? You're asking me? No. I don't know. Are we going to do this right away?
42:25Is this coming out next month? From May, June, July, August, September, October, November, December, see yourself flipping through the calendar, stopping one month, one day, and you circle that day, see yourself doing that right this second. Look at me. See, I watched. And you waited. I'm going to show you. I think you thought of December, didn't you? And then I said to pick it at random, and you felt it was random, but then you smiled. Ruching of the cheeks, pupil dilation, has meaning to you. Yes. Oh my God. You thought of this date for a reason. Birthday of somebody you care about, isn't it?
43:03More than one person. What's going on? I got to go with this. I wrote this down. What month and date? December what? December 8th. December 8th is what you were thinking of.
43:11Tim Seymour:Wow. That's the birthday of my twin. That's unbelievable. Hand me that one. Hand me that one. Hand me that one. I want to know right now, because everyone watching this, it's real time, 12-8 was the date you thought of. Boeing. You could have picked any company. Can you pull up, what's Boeing trading at right now? Grab your phone. Go to your calculator. Everyone watching this, go to your calculator, too. What's Boeing? Do we have? Can we get a ticker? Boeing, let's just scratch the cents. Everyone put in times 128 in your calculator times 225. And what do we say? Goldman, GS. Goldman, what's Goldman trading at?
43:49And folks, every second, every second, stocks exchange hands off market every time of day. What does it say? 941 times 941. Everyone do times 941. And hit equals. What did we get? Should have gotten millions. Did we? Yeah. You ready for the weirdest part? You came up with that on the fly. Bags of money. That's our next big hit. What's the ticker symbol? When I said imagine, what's the ticker symbol for Boeing? B-A. What's the ticker symbol for Goldman Sachs? G-S. Bags of money. And are you ready for the best part? What did we get? Read it for me, Dan. What do we get? All of this together. Everyone at home, I hope you did this too.
44:33What do we get? $27 million. $27 million. $100 ,000. $100 ,000. $800. $800. I said reach into your pocket, bags of money, and pull out any bill you wanted. Read us the serial number one digit at a time from your bill. Read it. Please pick it up. Read it for us one at a time. Pick it up.
44:54Melissa Lee:271-00-800. I'm not going to curse on live to you, but that's crazy.
45:02Tim Seymour:That's crazy.
45:02Melissa Lee:I mean, that is, I mean, I don't know if they can see this. This is insane. Can you get that? I don't know how close you can get. That's yours.
45:11Tim Seymour:I cannot believe it. I cannot believe it. See for yourself. White House Correspondents Dinner, and you get to see me if you want, May 2nd at the win in Las Vegas. The Borgata on June 5th. Come experience this for yourself. You see it on TV, you go, no way. But see it in person. And maybe we'll see you on Bags of Money premiering December 8th. She's hosting. Casey, call me. I'm the new host. That was like an amazing show. I'm there. I will, too. It's great to see you. It is unbelievable. You know how I got the 12-8? He had a deck of cards with random bills. I shuffled it. I broke it. I didn't pick a random card.
45:45Tim Seymour:Meant to be. That's how unbelievable this is. I mean, look at Karen. She's still trying to do it. Karen was like, I was going to do JP Morgan. And it could have traded. It was at 940.74. What if it jumped by one extra dollar right during trading? How could you know? And that was your dollar from your pocket from wherever.
46:05Melissa Lee:Maybe I'll play the frickin' lotto with this. You should.
46:08Tim Seymour:Tell him if he'll win. He won't.
46:10Melissa Lee:He won't. Sorry. O's stinks. O's is the man. He is. O's is the man.
46:15Tim Seymour:Yes, he is. We know that. We all know that.
46:17Melissa Lee:The guys in the NFL, they walk. They're frightened by you. 300-pound men are scared by my 142 pounds.
46:24Tim Seymour:I'm terrified. They should be. Great to see you. Thank you. Earning season underway. We'll have the stocks to watch tomorrow and how the traders are positioning ahead of the results. More Fast Money in two. Welcome back to Fast Money Earnings Season. Kicking into high gear this week with names like Intel, P &G, American Airlines and Tesla all slated to report. Tomorrow morning, we'll hear from GE Aerospace, UnitedHealth and 3M. United Air reports after the bell. All four of those stocks are negative since the start of the year. So, Julie, which name strikes your fancy? I'm really interested in all the primes, given all of the defense spending that's been, you know, we've talked about.
47:00It's kind of the place that I'm the most interested in because the supply chain for all of these companies is so wide ranging, especially in small cap. We have a lot of companies that serve them. So that's the space that I'm the most keen to learn more about. Yeah. How about you, Guy?
47:14Melissa Lee:I mean, GE, definitely. But you mentioned Procter & Gamble. I mean, that to me is interesting only because of what's the tell. Are they able to pass on the cost? They haven't been the last couple of quarters. and what are they going to say about the state of the consumer. So for me, that's the one that I'm looking for. Karen? I'm sort of intrigued by UnitedHealth. I mean, we know it's been a rough road the last couple of years, but I feel like they're gaining their momentum. Let's see what that medical loss ratio is. And they got that good CMS rate two weeks ago. That one seems interesting to me.
47:43Melissa Lee:Intel.
47:44Tim Seymour:Oh, I knew you were going to say that.
47:46Melissa Lee:Don't pull the O's. No, no, not because of that. Write it down on a board, Dan. It's up 50 % in a month. And it's gained probably 3x its revenue, its annual revenue, in a month. So I just think there's a lot priced in there. And, again, they still have a lot of exposure to some consumer electronics that are not doing as well as, say, servers.
48:07Tim Seymour:Guy is still reeling from the list.
48:10Melissa Lee:No, it's sorcery, man. It's sorcery.
48:14Tim Seymour:Up next, Final Trades.
48:22Tim Seymour:Final Trade time. Julie Beal. While Top Build had its acquisition, installed building products is its competitor, and I think it's good news for the company to have it taken up. Karen. Yes, Amazon. Dan.
48:36Melissa Lee:Yeah, Karen's JP Morgan's new high. That guy. Let her see, Melms.
48:40Tim Seymour:And O's is back.
48:41Melissa Lee:Yeah, he is.
48:41Tim Seymour:The mentalist.
48:43Melissa Lee:Netflix.
48:44Tim Seymour:Oh, yeah. Oh, is that because you want to show? You want to put bags of money on Netflix. I think now that Paramount and Warner Brothers went their own way, I think we might have something new stirring That's going to be a big acquisition. Look at that. That's insane. It is rare to have Guy absolutely speechless over anything. And yet here he is, speechless. I have a single dollar bill.
49:06Melissa Lee:That is, we didn't, this is not rehearsed. I mean, people on Twitter are like, this is legit.
49:12Tim Seymour:Yep. Catch us at the White House Correspondent Center. Thanks for watching Fast Mad Money starts right now. All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet, or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such.
49:44To view the full Fast Money Disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com forward slash Fast Money Disclaimer.
49:48Melissa Lee:Hey, this is Will Arnett, host of Smartless. Smartless is a podcast with myself and Sean Hayes and Jason Bateman, where each week one of us reveals a mystery guest of the other two. We dive deep with guests that you love, like Bill Hader, Selena Gomez, Jennifer Aniston, David Beckham, Kristen Stewart, and tons more. So join us for a genuinely improvised and authentic conversation filled with laughter and newfound knowledge to feed the smartless mind. Listen to Smartless now on the SiriusXM app. Download it today.
From the publisher
Stocks kicking off the week snapping a major winning streak, as investors eye the next move in the fragile Mideast ceasefire. The details behind the latest developments, and the impact on oil as prices tick back up. Plus a combo in the construction supplies space, Eli Lilly’s latest drugmaker deal, and how the Strait of Hormuz closure could mean a lump of coal this holiday season. And get ready to have your mind blown when Oz The Mentalist stops by the Fast Money desk.
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