Stocks Rally On Optimism For End Of Iran War… And Apple’s Mag-7 Outperformance 3/31/26

17:41Tim Seymour:Becky and Andrew.

17:42Melissa Lee:Becky, quick, who was where? In Omaha with Warren Buffett. Of course she was. And did you watch the interview? I know you did. And he said a 5 % sell-off that we're currently in the midst of is nothing, and he's waiting for more. And the$380 billion or so on the balance sheet now, a trillion-dollar market cap company, suggests that's exactly what he's doing. So, listen, I understand the optimism, enthusiasm. You made great points. But, you know, that interview, I think if you didn't see it, you should watch it and hear what Warren had to say. You know, math. That was great, right? You know, the thing is, is that we do see signs of decelerating earnings.

18:15Melissa Lee:Right. So 14 and a half to kind of, you know, beat expectations in 2025. I think that, you know, there's no way that you see an acceleration from the period that we've had, especially you just asked the question earlier. You know, it's not like you're going to flip the switch and things are going to get back going. And I think it's just also important to remember we had a big GDP miss. We had a really disappointing labor report, you know, the non-farm payrolls. So I don't get a sense that things were actually, you know, accelerating the economy. And the other thing is, yeah, earlier this year we heard about 2026 capbacks for the hyperscalers.

18:45Melissa Lee:But, man, if these stocks continue to go down, if we continue to see just some of this squishy action in and around tech, I just can't imagine they live up to that. And we know that that's been a good part of GDP growth for the last two years.

18:57Tim Seymour:Meantime, we do want to get to Nike. Those shares running lower after this. Sportswear giant dropping despite a top and bottom line beat. China revenues and gross margin coming in ahead of Wall Street expectations. But North America revenues fell short. The stock was up more than three percent in today's regular session. It is down at after hour session lows, down four point two percent. The conference call is underway right now. It's 18 minutes in. But what was your take on this quarter? Well, I think with Nike, they don't I don't know if they reported guidance yet, which is really. Yeah. And that doesn't happen for the call.

19:30So, you know, it could be anything in the past couple of years. It's been bad. But I don't know. There was a couple of green shoots there. Not a terrible quarter. But I think they got a lot of wood to chop to get back remotely close where they were.

19:46Melissa Lee:You know, the growth is the numbers were not bad. China, I think, was great, but probably better than people expected. But I think it comes down to they're not showing they're not gaining on the competition. This quarter just suggests to me the competition is still a problem and that margins are still seemingly under pressure. It seemingly got their inventories in line. Good for them. But, you know, the margin pressures are real and the valuation might still be a little bit too rich. And listen, I think we're I think we're trading at 10 year lows right now in the after hours, which is significant.

20:16Tim Seymour:The optimism on the street about this name and about Elliott Hill has been increasing. And yet here we are.

20:23Karen Finerman:I think that's right. And I was pretty bullish. And I think I remain despite this these numbers. And North America is is a huge disappointment. I mean, I mean, it was up it was up eight percent, nine percent in last quarter. The expectations where they were going to say they were starting to see inventory dynamics really turn around. I'm less focused on China here than their core business. So, yeah, disappointing. But I do think that this is a story that largely has been de-risked. Let's wait and see where she trades tomorrow and the call.

20:55Tim Seymour:She. Yep.

20:56Karen Finerman:She.

20:56Tim Seymour:And we'll keep an eye on how she trades in the after our session. We'll also bring you the headlines from the conference call as we have them again. We're about 20 minutes into the conference call. Hopefully we'll get some guidance too. Plus, the details out of NVIDIA's latest investment, what the CEO had to say about the new stake in Marvell and the growing AI ecosystem it is building for itself. Do not go anywhere. Fast Money is back in two.

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22:53Karen Finerman:Go to Tim.

22:55Tim Seymour:Maybe. Tim was eating a three-month-old. Right, stuck in his teeth. Anyway, welcome back to Fast Money. NVIDIA inking a$2 billion deal with Marvell for the next stage of its custom AI chip build-out. Marvell shares jumping nearly 13%, their second best day of the year. Christina Parts-Nobles here on set with all the details. Christina.

23:12Melissa Lee:Well, the deal really centers on NVIDIA's platform that lets custom chips plug into its infrastructure system. Marvell designs those custom AI chips for major tech companies like Amazon. They also compete with NVIDIA's GPUs. But this partnership kind of flips that dynamic, giving NVIDIA a shot at a much bigger market because it's opening it up to competitors, something that actually was news last May. And then also giving Marvell a capital infusion and positioning Marvell as a core AI infrastructure peer. Marvell is just the latest investment, though, for the chip giant. This month alone, NVIDIA has committed$2 billion each to Nebius, Lumentum, Coherent.

23:47Melissa Lee:Before that,$2 billion into Synopsys,$1 billion into Nokia, Stakes in XAI, OpenAI, Intel. The money just keeps coming out. So why the spending spree? Well, NVIDIA isn't just selling chips anymore. The CEO often reminds investors at every event that it's not a chip company anymore, but rather an AI infrastructure firm really trying to own the entire AI factory or ecosystem, locking in the suppliers that build the optical networking, the custom silicon, and the interconnects. Those companies become financially and strategically tied to NVIDIA's ecosystem. The takeaway, though, is NVIDIA is definitely spending aggressively to make sure the AI build-out runs through its ecosystem,

24:24Tim Seymour:no matter whose chips end up on their racks. A lot of these investments, though, are in exchange for revenue back, correct?

24:32Melissa Lee:Not this case. Not with Marvell. Not this one, though. Unless there's going to be more details inked out over the next little while, but this was just a$2 billion investment. And the news about using Marvell's custom chips in NVIDIA systems,

24:45Tim Seymour:that actually came out last May, so that's not the newsy part for this piece. How do you think about, as an NVIDIA shareholder, all the different stakes it has in other companies and the valuation of NVIDIA itself? Well, they're generating so much money that they have plenty of money to do this. I've never loved the idea of investing in your supplier or your customer. That seems to be the way it happens now. I do think that NVIDIA at this price, if I owned none, I would buy some here. I think it's, you know, the sentiment around it is pretty bad and I don't think that it should be.

25:24Melissa Lee:165-ish. If you go back to July of last year, that's where basically the floor has been a few times over the last effectively nine or ten months. So we held where we needed to hold. With that said, I mean, it's still below the 200-day moving average, which is now sloping lower for you technicians out there. And I get it, the optimism around quarter end and stuff. But I think we can all say that on what's been a decent tape until recently, NVIDIA, since October, November, has been an underperformer. Yeah, I'd just say that, you know, this is either going to go really well or really poorly. And just, again, we have a sense of history when you kind of create these sorts of ecosystems based on investment, right?

25:58Melissa Lee:I don't know if you have the sort of deals, you have the sort of interlocking activity if you don't have the investment. And so when I think about, you know, Karen just said this, 90 % of their revenues come from GPUs. And I think the lock-in is really important. But when they're doing these deals, let's say these custom silicon with Marvell and you're keeping it locked in, it is with their other core customers, right? And then when you think about that 75%, 76 % gross margin, what I hear, what I see is that there's going to be pressure on the gross margin. So they have to kind of broaden out their appeal to a whole heck of a lot of folks that are going to be doing the custom.

26:32Melissa Lee:And the other thing is it's like they just announced this lower power, the Grok chip and everything like that. Well, they've invested in Intel for CPUs and everything. It just seems very complicated. And I think the slightest downturn, and I just have to imagine that no one's going to be valuing NVIDIA on the, you know, the valuation of their investments or the quality of their investments. But that's the point.

26:52Karen Finerman:And what they're doing is they're making a holding company. Holding companies trade at a discount to some of the parts. It also sounds like they're vertically integrated. And this sounds like a big industrial company from the 1900s. I know that's not what's going on here, but they're trying to have footprints all over the growth of what was at one point the industrial revolution. So, you know, I get it. I don't think it's good for valuation.

27:14Tim Seymour:Thank you, Christina. Christina Parts of Nevelis. Coming up, we're keeping an eye on shares of Nike after hours of the conference call underway, what the company has to say about guidance, plus the results moving shares of RH as well. You're watching Fast Money live from the Nasdaq market site in Times Square. Back right after this.

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29:34Tim Seymour:The Nasdaq dropping more than 7%. Take a look at shares of Meta, jumping more than 6%. It's best day since January. The social giant beginning to test premium subscriptions on its platforms, giving users more functions on Instagram, Facebook, and WhatsApp. The company looking to add new revenue streams to offset AI costs. And a condiment combination in the grocery aisle. Spice giant McCormick announcing it will buy Unilever's food business, which includes brands like Hellman's Mayonnaise. McCormick will pay a combination of cash and equity in a deal that values a portfolio at nearly$45 billion.

30:09Tim Seymour:And another after-hours mover, shares of RH. What a drop here. After missing estimates on the top and the bottom line, the company also lowering Q1, full year of revenue growth guidance. That stock is down 16.3%, which is off the after-hours session lows, actually. I mean, this is sort of a disaster. I mean, the quarter was really terrible. The guidance was also really terrible. Understandably, maybe there's some conservatism in there. Why not? But also, it seems unfortunate, the timing of their growth in Europe, which they spent a ton of money. I'm sure it looks fantastic. Europe is clearly under some stress right now.

30:47So, you know, over time, that'll work out. But this, it'll be interesting to hear the conference call. You know, Gary Friedman's a character. He's very colorful.

30:56Melissa Lee:Okay, this is what I find. Yeah, inventories were down almost 20 % year over year against sales growth of maybe up 4%. So what it appears to be, given the margin compression, is they just basically put everything out for sale and got rid of their inventories, which I think, given they were at an eight-year low and valuation is actually somewhat reasonable, you might be actually looking at a pretty short-term bottom here in restoration or whatever. RH. RH. Sorry. RH. Nice.

31:23Tim Seymour:Coming up, oil pulling back. Matt Rood and Brent both taking a leg lower today on the latest developments out of the Middle East, where the energy trade is heading next and what we can expect in the oil fields when Fast Money returns.

31:39Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. Crude oil prices retreating from their highs following reports that U.S. and Iranian leadership have both signaled openness to ending the war. But even with today's pullback, Brent and WTI each closing out in March firmly above$100 a barrel. WTI at more than 50 percent, putting its best month since May 2020, while Brent surged over 60 percent for its best month, going back to its inception in 1988. For more on where prices go from here, Lipow Oil Associates President Andy Lipow joins us now. Andy, great to see you. Thanks for having me, Melissa. Let's say the war ends tomorrow.

32:14Tim Seymour:Where do oil prices go? Do they go back to 65? Well, I think if the conflict ended tomorrow, you'd see an immediate drop in oil prices of$10 to$15 a barrel. But I don't think we're going back to pre-conflict levels of$65 a barrel because the market is going to be pricing in greater geopolitical risk throughout the Middle East. If Iran was able to close the Strait of Hormuz once, they probably can do it again. But I would say that the energy shock of today could actually lead to a deep economic downturn in the future. And that would cause a demand destruction, pressuring oil prices perhaps below$65 a barrel.

32:55We've seen that in the past.

32:58Karen Finerman:Andy, talk about energy independence and where you think there was going to be real progress in the back of this, timelines and obviously in what part of the, call it renewables, alternatives, where's this going to happen? Well, if we think about energy independence in the U.S., it really depends on where you are since we continue to import crude oil and refined products to the East and West Coast while we're exporting crude and products off the Gulf Coast. I think now with the events in the Middle East, people are going to be looking at all sorts of alternatives, you know, including nuclear power, coal, wind, solar for electrical generation.

33:38But for transportation fuels, there's going to be renewed interest in ethanol, renewable diesel, and biodiesel. And we saw on Friday the administration unveil its renewable fuel standard for 2026, which was an all-time record demand for biofuels. So you can kind of see biofuels coming into the solution of reducing our dependence on fossil fuels or being part of the all of the above approach.

34:09Melissa Lee:Andy, the U.S. economy is pretty resilient. Can it adapt to a prolonged period of time of$95 plus oil or does at some point just have a huge negative impact on the economy? Well, I think eventually it would have a negative impact on the economy because our economy is tied to the rest of the world. And when I do look at what this energy shock is doing to economies in Asia, whether it's fuel rationing or price caps or other measures to reduce energy throughout that region, I think that eventually impacts on the U.S., given our trade with these various different geographic regions in the world, whether it's Southeast Asia or Africa or South America.

34:53And what happens there, I think, ultimately impacts on the U.S.

34:57Tim Seymour:You're talking before about a higher risk premium that would be embedded per barrel of oil. Andy, how should we think about how long that premium lasts when it was sort of a, you know, the unthinkable happened here, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz? And so does that make that premium stickier and longer lasting? I think it does. I think it can stick around for several years. In fact, you know, if Iran were to succeed and become the toll taker for vessels transiting through the Strait of Hormuz, that, of course, is already going to increase costs and make people look for other ways around that region.

35:37It also increases freight costs and ultimately the price of crude oil and refined products that's delivered around the world. So I don't think the geopolitical risk is going away anytime soon, especially since Iran attacked its neighbors. There's a lot of bad feelings around that's going to take years, if not decades, to overcome.

35:59Tim Seymour:Wow. Andy, thanks for joining us. Appreciate it. Thanks for having me. Andy, Lipout Oil Associates, I mean, that's several years for an elevated price per barrel. That's a long time.

36:09Karen Finerman:Well, again, the futures curve, the term structure has changed a little bit over the last month, and we'll see. I think we have to settle into higher oil prices. I think we also, if you look at the energy equities, I thought they performed a lot better today than they might have. And it goes back to what we've been saying. I just think the view is that that prices stay higher for longer. There are those that are really well positioned in different parts of either the refining space, different parts of the product space. And I think don't just assume that these are places you should be running away from.

36:38Melissa Lee:Yeah. You know, if you're looking at the consumer impact, like let's just look at California. This is the fourth largest economy in the world, right? You have U.S., you have China, you have Germany, then you have California. Right. So we talk about the price of gas at the pump. I think it was like$4.80. This was like a month ago or something. It's up a dollar, right? But diesel, I think, is really important, too, because if you are, you know, charging, you know, it goes from$5 to$7.50 for a gallon of diesel, which is what has happened over the last month or so. I mean, some of that increased cost is going to be passed through to consumers.

37:08Melissa Lee:So it's not just what you're paying for your own gas at the, you know, so like to me, I just think that there's a really neat way you can say, well, this is like all done. But, like, you got to think about this also. It's like how many of our objectives have we actually achieved over there, right? So the notion that we're just going to have a ceasefire and we're not going to actually get some resolution on those objectives. So, again, no one's wishing this. It's just like the unrealistic aspect of seeing this, not even on Twitter, on some other network where there's a lot of other people, you know, a lot of other people aren't even looking at it.

37:37Melissa Lee:It just seems like a kind of goofy way to run a war. Energy stocks should have gone down a lot more today, as should have the commodity, if there was any veracity to this. And so I think you've got to be encouraged by the relative performance of energy stocks today.

37:50Tim Seymour:Coming up, two major takeout deals driving the action in biotech today. We are tackling the latest multibillion-dollar buys from Lilly and Biogen and where the sector is headed from here. More Fast Money right after this.

38:12Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. Let's get another check on Nike taking another leg lower now, down by 8.6 percent after our session lows. We are getting some guidance from the call. CBC.com retail reporter Gabrielle Conrouge has got these headlines. Gabby. Yeah, so Nike's conference call is underway, and the company just reported weak guidance for the fiscal fourth quarter. Finance chief Matt Friend said he expects sales to be down between 2 percent and 4 percent, while analysts had expected sales to be up 1.9 percent. That's going to include some modest growth in North America, but that's going to be offset by an expected 20 percent decline in China.

38:47We also got some color for the duration of the calendar year, which is a bit harder to compare to expectations. Nike expects sales to be down in the low single digits through the end of the year, with again gains in North America offset by declines in China. And the first quarter of fiscal 2027 is expected to be the final quarter of higher year over year tariffs with gross margin expansion expected for the following quarter. Now, friend cautioned this guidance is where things stand with the macro as of today. He warned more volatility could come due to the war in the Middle East, rising oil prices, higher input costs, and shifting consumer behavior.

39:22Melissa?

39:23Tim Seymour:Was there any nuance, Gabby, in the commentary about the consumer, whether it be the consumer in North America or the consumer in China as the wars progressed? You know, we haven't heard that yet, but we do know that this could potentially lead to higher prices. Shoes are made with lots of plastic. You've already had a lot of slowdown on the consumer overall. So this is something that they could weigh, but they didn't really share with any specific consumer commentary in either China or North America. All right, Gabby, thanks. Gabrielle Fon Rouge, I guess, again, Nike shares down by eight and a half percent at this point.

39:52Tim Seymour:Remember, China's decline in the quarter that they just reported was down seven percent. The prior quarter was down, I think it was like 17 percent or something like that. So down 20 is a departure and the North America still is not, you know, I mean, there's nothing to like here. This is a lot of this is I feel like there's a kitchen sink once with some. I don't know, like after quarters, after the new CEO has come on. There's a new kitchen sink. And this is, you know, says we'll return to providing long term guidance this fall. They should be out of the guidance business entirely. I mean, you know, this I don't think he's doing himself any favors, but this is not good.

40:30Karen Finerman:And you're getting maybe a little look into just, you know, the guide on what's going on Middle East-wise and then the impact and with the impact on demand. And that's not good for more broadly what people are looking at.

40:41Tim Seymour:Right. I mean, the commentary that Gabby had mentioned about the input costs going higher, pressuring margins. I mean, we're going to hear that repeatedly across many different sectors.

40:50Melissa Lee:Margin compression, competition. I mean, there's a lot of things working against them. The lack of growth. I think this 48 and a half is a 12 to 13 year low in the stock. And at some point, you're going to look at it and say, okay, just valuation alone and the brand suggests. But I still don't think it's yet, unfortunately.

41:08Karen Finerman:The brand is top of the shelf, I think. But the valuation is not good.

41:15Tim Seymour:You don't think after all these quarters and years, maybe, of lack of having the newest, greatest thing, that there's not any sort of brand equity damage in the mind of the newer consumers? We all grew up with Nike as being the coolest shoe out there. But there's a whole other generation that do not think that.

41:32Karen Finerman:Well, that's fair. I mean, their whole running, the strategy in running shoes seems to be working. The innovation seems to be back. But, again, the EPS story and how this translates into evaluation, this is right now like north of 50 times. And I don't know what this guide tells you about the coming quarter.

41:50Melissa Lee:I think what Mel says, you've got to get back to basics. This company has like 25 ,000 SKUs globally. Just think about that. That's across sizes. Go to their website and you look at this stuff and you say to yourself, how do you appeal to brands all over the world? Well, you have 25 ,000 SKUs. But if you're having brand degradation in some of these places, like China, the Middle East or whatever, I get back to basics here, man. They have some great, great brand loyalty to your point, but it just seems they're trying to be everything to all things. I think with this wholesale retail problem, what they've had is really it's persistent.

42:20The wholesale, ultimately, the gross margins aren't as good, but the operating margins are better. I think they've got to try to change the mix more.

42:29Tim Seymour:And by the way, this break below 50, I mean, Katie Stockton was here yesterday, Katie of Fairleaf Strategies, and said 50 had been support for a very long time, but yet here we are at 48.

42:39Melissa Lee:We discussed it last night, the Nike.

42:42Tim Seymour:Yeah, yeah, yeah, the Nike, yep.

42:43Melissa Lee:It's, yeah, breaking. Now, you need a big volume. Maybe you'll get that three-, four-time volume day where you flush whoever's left in it out, and maybe there's some capitulation, but I don't think you've seen it yet.

42:54Tim Seymour:All right, down to 8.5 % right now. Coming up, more wheeling and dealing in the pharma space. The details on two big deals. That's next. More Fast Money in two.

43:07Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. Pfizer rising a percent to hit its highest levels going back to November 2024. Today's move bringing the pharma stocks year-to-date gains to almost 13%. 7%. Biotech stocks also surging with the XBI up 7.5 % for its best day going back to 2022. So, of course, Pfizer is Karen and Tim's Pfizer. So they both are rejoicing over this revival in these shares.

43:30Karen Finerman:I've been adding to the position and I've been adding to it because we've been continuing to get pretty decent data. And this, you know, this Lyme disease data they had this morning, it's not really the reason to go buy the stock. PADSEV and some of their oncology, I think the impact and the size of these pipelines are pretty interesting. A 6 % dividend yield is not awful. And a chart that really, I mean, frankly, it's solidly put in a base for a long time. It's been slow and steady. And I do think it's under-owned. And I think it's been de-risked.

43:59Tim Seymour:We've got two big biotech deals driving some action today. But the headlines, sending buyers Lily and Biogen in opposite directions. Angelica Peebles joins us with the details here. Angelica. hey melissa but these two deals have very different strategies behind them so you have lily diversifying its diversifying its pipeline and then you have biogen which is trying to fill some revenue holes so let's start with lily right this is a company that is spending up to 7.8 billion dollars to buy syntessa and its pipeline of experimental drugs for sleep disorders so this company is working on a new class of drugs that could transform the treatment for narcolepsy and other sleep conditions that cause drowsiness.

44:37And I talked exclusively with Lilly CEO Dave Ricks today, who said that this new class called Erexin Agonist could lead to a multitude of uses similar to what we see with GLP-1s. Now, Syntessa's most advanced drug is about to enter phase three, so it will be at least a few years before this deal pays off. And Lilly isn't in any rush. It can afford to take those risks. And then you have Biogen, right? They're buying Apellas Pharmaceuticals for$5.6 billion up front. And this gives Biogen two approved drugs, one for a rare kidney disease and another for an eye condition. And Biogen's been trying to find new drugs that can offset that shrinking multiple sclerosis business.

45:14Remember, Biogen bet big on Alzheimer's and that really hasn't worked out for them. So this is forcing them to go out and look to find new drugs that can help turn the company around. And this is one attempt to do that, guys.

45:26Tim Seymour:All right, Angelica, thank you. Angelica Peebles. And, of course, Lilly, we were just talking about Lilly and another deal yesterday. I mean, they have been on a string in terms of bolstering their pipeline.

45:36Melissa Lee:Sweet spot for these deals,$6 to$10 billion. So you look at Karen's structure, which is either the S in her stash or the G in her, I'm not sure. It's his stash. That's mine. And then you look at Viking, big day, InsMed, which is not going to get bought, but that had a big day. These biotech stocks, I know they're painful at times, but I think these are three names you want to still own. Well, I think the sleep drug thing is just interesting to me personally. I mean, good for Lilly. They have, you know, they're making enough money. They can be buying whatever they want. That's sort of a nice position to be in.

46:07Good for them.

46:08Tim Seymour:Up next, Final Trades.

46:22Tim Seymour:Final Trade time, Timbo.

46:24Karen Finerman:By the way, that was a good Three Musketeers. I'm just going to say. New God. Healthcare. XLV. New God. Karen. Yeah. Sticking with the healthcare. Glad you enjoyed it. Novo Nordis. Dan.

46:36Melissa Lee:Yeah, Nike might get that capitulation the guy's talking about. Looks like it'd be a buy. Guy. I thought I'd bought$100 ,000 bars for the team. It turns out I did not. Yeah, it's too bad. Which is why you were relegated to a milky bar. I got a crunch. Nothing wrong with what I had. That's not bad. That's good. Letter B used to be Barnes. Now it's Barrick.

46:56Tim Seymour:All right. Thanks for watching Fast. Mad Money starts right now. All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet, or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such.

47:27To view the full Fast Money Disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com forward slash Fast Money Disclaimer.

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