Stocks Surge After Soft CPI Data… And Mag7 On Deck To Report 10/24/25

0:01Live from the Nasdaq market site in the heart of New York City's Times Square on a record breaking day where the Dow close above 47, for the first time. And this is Fast Money. Here's what's on tap tonight. A record rally. Major indices all notching all-time closes today. The headlines driving the gains and whether there's more upside to come. And big tech on deck. More than$15 trillion worth of companies reporting earnings next week. Will the numbers keep the trade in rally mode? We'll debate that. Plus, nuclear gains for uranium stocks. Shares of Hoka Maker Deckers run out of steam and zooming higher.

0:32Why the chartmaster says now is the time to buy the one-time work-from-home darling. I'm Melissa Lee coming to you live from Studio B at the NASDAQ. On the desk tonight, Tim Seymour, Karen Feinerman, Courtney Garcia, and Carter Braxton Worth. We start off with the sound of records being broken across Wall Street. The Dow, nearly 500 points towards first ever close above 47 ,000. The S &P breaching the 6 ,800 level and the NASDAQ leading the gains, jumping more than 1%. Small caps not sitting out this rally, though the Russell 2000 fell just short of its own record. It notched its best week since August.

1:05Today's moves come after a slightly softer-than-expected CPI print, the only official economic data released since the government shutdown at the start of the month. Consumer prices rising three-tenths of a percent in September versus the prior month and three percent from the year before. That boosted hopes that the Federal Reserve can stay on its rate-cutting path at next week's meeting. All this ahead of the busiest week of earnings season. With nearly a third of the S &P 500 and more than a third of the Dow set to deliver results, Five of the MAG7 stocks are headlining the action. Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, and Apple all on the calendar.

1:39So the Fed decision looming, a slew of mega cap results to come. What's today's strength tell you, Tim? It tells me that we have a green light to at least the best month of the year from the Fed's perspective. From the earnings season's perspective, folks following at home, I mean, we talk about this every night. It's been a very solid earnings season, and we have next week is kind of the week and then a couple after that. But, you know, we're 10.2 percent EPS growth, which is better than expected coming in. So when you combine that with the rest of the macro that we do get, that's either not really the usual data we're getting from the government.

2:14But I think you have a great backdrop of you're hearing from companies how resilient their earnings profile is. You are hearing from the top down that most people don't even really know what owner's equivalent rent is. All you need to know is that this is the best sign we've seen an owner's equivalent rent for an overall CPI number in months. So it was a relief, especially when so much focus was on the CPI, given it is the only data point seemingly that the Fed has that's somewhat coincident, although it's backward looking. So I think this is a great backdrop. I think we've had some of the froth taking out of markets.

2:47I think there's a lot of skepticism out there. And in some sense, I really still think the pain trade is higher. Yeah. Karen, the setup, though, starting off at record highs going into earnings season is not necessarily ideal in terms of price action. Right, right. No, I would say I'd like to much rather go in with the stock being down like I would like to see the banks were down, thankfully going in. I think that, as Tim said, earnings season off to a really nice start, starting with the banks, not just for their own business, but also what they're seeing in the rest of the economy and the activity that they're seeing on the deal front.

3:19So sort of animal spirits are out there. We haven't seen the AI. We haven't seen AI earnings yet, though. And that obviously is a tremendous driver. And so we'll get a lot more information next week. But I don't know. I feel like this was a little a little frothy off of one piece of data that seemed good, a little bit cool, which is good. but if you step back a little, you don't need to step back very far and say, well, you know, the Fed is still far from where they want to be on the inflation front, but as each month goes by, we get closer to a Fed that will be dovish no matter what. Yeah, and I think what you're seeing today is people are kind of sighing relief and realizing, okay, the Fed is very likely going to be cutting rates because with the inflation report, it's really not going to hinder them from doing so.

4:06I think that's what people weren't convinced of, especially as we're getting no government data right now. So we did actually get this piece of CPI data. The question is, are we going to get that next month? Because they had already collected this data. They just couldn't report on it, which is why this could come out. They just aren't collecting the data right now for next month. So at this point, it's that much more important that we listen to everything that these earnings reports are saying and what they're saying they see in the health of the consumer and the economy. And so that's where I think the banks have been really important.

4:33Next week, we have Visa, MasterCard. But as much as the AI is the story, I do want to hear how is the overall consumer doing, and I think we're going to continue to hear that. I mean, my opinion is there's no room for error, right? The market's full. So not the greatest setup going into the big five reporting. There is some statistics around, and you can look at this, where with the big five all report in the same week, it's not been a positive week. It doesn't mean it's a down or a crash, but a lot is already expected. And so my hunch is we gapped up today. I would fade it into next week. Is there anything to, you know, this observation that there does seem to be still intact by the dip mentality, that every dip that we faced, we've gone higher.

5:17People are still willing to get in to the markets. And does that make this rally more durable, in your view? I think it absolutely does. And I do think, well, we've had guests come on and say that they think money markets are actually seeing inflows and maybe that's a better place to be. And that's, by the way, that makes a lot of sense if you're worried about where markets sit here. I can't argue with that. But there's certainly an argument, as we saw the 10 year make a decided move below 4 percent today, that investors who are in the bond market and in money markets are looking at that cash and saying it's not earning me as much as it used to.

5:48And I feel like I'm missing something. So I think you have a backdrop also where, again, we had a services PMI, it's a flash PMI, but it does give you some sense that the biggest part of our economy was actually better than expected. And I throw in that Michigan consumer estimate that was that was worse than expected, which, You know, those are the two things you'd want if you're playing purely on macro here and a CPI today. So Carter's right. I mean, look, it's it's hard to feel as if everybody doesn't think Meta is going to save the day. Right. This is I mean, every quarter Meta is extraordinary.

6:20They're top lines. In other words, they live up to that that peg, that price to earnings growth ratio. And they continue to deliver on that. But I look at semiconductors making an all time high today and a new relative high. And they're now up close to 40 % this year with the NASDAQ only 18. We know what roughly percent of the overall market they are, and they're driving things. And I guess we've seen the volatility inherent in that sector, but I don't know why investors aren't chasing more of this. Well, a couple of things. The buy the dip is very much prevalent at the individual investor level.

6:52It's not going on at the institution. The institutions are not behaving that way. Hedge funds are not behaving that way. So, you know, that's what makes a market. But the big two that matter the most, and it's not the one that I think is economic sensitive, Meta, yeah, has still only slightly above its February peak, meaning all stocks peaked in February, all stocks crashed, tariff, excuse me, and then all stocks have recovered. Meta is basically unch from its February high, and so is Amazon. These two have to perform, right? Apple has finally made the new high. Otherwise what? Otherwise, you're having bifurcation among the champions.

7:31We've got bifurcation in the market. There's stocks that are struggling versus stocks. But if these two can't join the other three, it means that there's a defect. So there's something really interesting about Meta, right? There is part of their business advertising. I think that's going to be really good. That's really important. That's what drives all the cash flow, which is all being used now for CapEx, right? These CapEx numbers are getting bigger and bigger. And we need to hear a really compelling case about return on that CapEx. We know for part of the business, it's very, right, they are getting return.

8:05Right. But the spend has gone into overdrive. And so we really need to hear that because this is central to the entire AI theme. And if we're not hearing about, I don't think a huge, a new bump in CapEx would be received that well. I really don't. You wouldn't receive it well. I wouldn't be delighted about it, right? This is a company that has gone from giant cash hoard to flat, basically. Cash and debt about equal. So I'm a little bit concerned about that. And I think that, I mean, we're seeing, you know, the IBM news today about, oh, we can use an AMD, relatively inexpensive AMD chip. And you sort of wonder, all right, about all of this spend.

8:47So that's going to be really important because that is central to the AI. Yeah. And going back to Carter's point about things being priced to perfection, you need to see them deliver on these metrics, right? There is no room for, oh, maybe the return wasn't that strong, even though we're spending this much money on CapEx. I mean, you need to see it with these valuations. I do agree. And I think specifically in the AI trade, I mean, you're just seeing those valuations go up and you're seeing money continuing to pour in there. But yes, I mean, at a certain point in time, I think you bring up the CapEx, which is a really good point.

9:17But, you know, my only other hesitation there is that's been the case the last several quarters. We've been saying you need to see a return on it. Investors really haven't cared that much. So I don't know, like, is this going to be the quarter they care? At some point it's going to happen, but I don't know when that is. And in the meantime, people just, you get that fear of missing out. People just continue to pour money there. So as much as like, yes, I don't think that's where you should be pouring your money, I don't know if that's over yet. But don't valuations make that more? Doesn't that make it come more come to the forefront?

9:43I mean, in terms of that question of the return on capital. I mean, when you're when you're at these levels, right, and the economy looks like it could, you know, we're sort of on a looks like good footing right now. But you never know. I mean, don't you want to see that even more so this quarter? Does it come now? Does it matter now? I think the question you're asking is, will valuations finally matter? And or at least if we look at the names we're talking about and that they're full and that leaving aside positioning, but that the valuations are full. But I would just get back to that's not that has not been an ingredient to sell off markets.

10:17That's not been an ingredient even during the pullbacks that we've had. We've heard no inclination or hesitation about the CapEx spend from all of them. So if this is really a driver on AI forces and truly what you want to hear out of NVIDIA, which is going to be a couple of weeks later, I just don't know. I'm not going to sit here and tell you that there couldn't be some surprises in there. I think we've even had Microsoft disappoint once or twice in the last four quarters. We've had meta-disappoint once, I think, in the last three. There's no question positioning could send you into that type of response.

10:48I don't think there's going to be anything fundamental they're going to tell you that's going to be a disappointment. Let's get some more on the markets and the reaction to CPI today. Let's bring in CNBC contributor Peter Bookbar, chief investment officer at 1.BFG Wealth Partners. Peter, great to have you with us. I just want to sort of fold you into this conversation that we're having. The CPI gives us a green light to think that there's two more cuts. But at the same time, we are at record highs across the board entering a huge earnings season. What's your view of the markets and how we are valued right now?

11:17Well, now relative to 2025 earnings estimates, obviously we have more to come with Q4 after Q3. We're trading at 25 times. And, you know, Tim mentioned valuations don't matter. They don't matter until they do. And I'm not sure when they will. With those big names that we're going to see earnings next week, The interesting thing that I find is that now that they've all turned themselves into highly capital-intensive businesses with much higher debt levels, much less cash flow, the market is still valuing them at the same multiples as they were when they were asset-light and very cash-generative.

11:54Now, that can continue, but I think that that's something that investors should think about, particularly when they digest next week's earnings, particularly the CapEx levels relative to revenue that are now at extraordinary levels. It is amazing to think that you have gone from a picture where you rewarded the companies for not spending all that, being asset light, to now being asset heavy because they are spending on all this hardware, et cetera, and expending all this capex and still getting the same valuation. I mean, it just sort of turns it all on your head. In terms of where you see value in the markets, though, you do like energy at this point?

12:33I mean, you think that that's a place where you can still see some gains? I love oil prices here. I think they're dirt cheap. I think the catalyst this week with the sanctions on Rosneft and Luke Oil, in addition to India and China related to the sanctions, buying less oil, I think is a major catalyst. And even going into this, I've been thinking that we are setting up ourselves for a rally that has to do with U.S. shale that is no longer a major contributor to global oil supply. That is OPEC production, which is not keeping up with quotas. The whole world is bearish on oil. Every day I hear about us swimming in it.

13:18But I think$60 is dirt cheap. The other area that I love that's been thrown out the window this year are the consumer staple stocks, which are now trading like bonds with 4 percent, 5 percent dividend yields, cheap valuations. And if the economy does continue to slow, I think this could be a port of safety for investors. Hey, Peter, Tim, we've been talking about the oil trade. We've been talking about OAH over the last couple of days. And the comment has generally been don't sleep on energy because just when you're not expecting it has a 70 percent move or a 70 percent half year, et cetera. And what you're talking about sets up well.

13:55What does today's CPI do on a week when gold had this extraordinary pullback from a sense that, you know, this had gotten not only over its skis, but this was now really into maybe margin territory? There could be an argument that if there really is less inflation, you have removed one of the dynamics for gold. You're a gold bull. I'm a gold bull. Anything change for you this week? Not really. I mean, CPI was still three percent. And if you look at the Treasury market today, after initially rallying and seeing a dip in yields, they pretty much closed to where they were right before the number came out.

14:30So I still think that we're stuck at around this three percent level on inflation. To me, the question with gold is it went vertical. It was due for a rest. It was due for a consolidation phase. We know whenever we see a chart pattern like that, it's getting way too ahead of itself. But the main driver of gold we know is central bank buying that has now been followed by retail and institutional buying. And as long as that central bank buying, which is price agnostic, remains, I still think that the risks are for much higher gold prices, silver prices after this period of consolidation. Peter, I'm wondering in terms of the view that there will be two more Fed rate cuts for the rest of the year.

15:09I mean, we are in a period where we will be in a vacuum when it comes to government data, and the Fed is going to have to use other means of data, and that could include earnings season. And so a lot will depend on some of the company commentary. We already know that, you know, within the CPI, household expenses were mixed. There are some areas of, I don't want to say strength, but rising inflation or growth in some areas where prices have come down. In the beige book, companies were dealing with higher prices. The way they dealt with it was mixed in terms of whether they would absorb it or pass it on to the consumer.

15:41I'm just wondering how you think about this sort of vacuum that we're going to be in and whether or not you think it is a slam dunk that the Fed makes that second from here rate cut after this meeting next week, or if there's a risk that maybe that doesn't happen because the data will actually show us, because we're going to be looking at company information and these sort of softer data points, that things aren't as rosy. Well, I do think that the Fed has plenty of ways of getting a lot of information on the economy. Earnings, as you said, they can just read through a lot of earnings transcripts, which I do, and you can get a great finger on the pulse of the economy.

16:20I think with the markets pricing in the Fed is Powell has got five meetings left. And right now, with the Fed cut next week, it's going to take the effective Fed funds rate down to about 385. Well, if you look at their dot plot, their long range real rate is 1%. Well, we just got a 3 % CPI. Yes, they look at PCE, but you're talking around 3. Well, the Fed funds rate next week is going to be 3.85. So you're at their long term real neutral rate. So, yes, maybe they'll throw us another one in December. But I don't really see how they're cutting that much more after that while Powell is Fed chair and he's got three meetings that he'll preside over next year.

17:07Now, of course, whoever replaces him, that one percent real rate will be thrown out the window and they'll cut rates to wherever they want. But as long as Jay Powell is chair over the next five meetings, I see one, maybe two cuts if they're going to stick to that 1 % long-term real rate goal. One, maybe two. All right, Peter, thank you. Great to speak with you, Peter Buchvar. What do you think, Karen? I mean, it strikes me, you know, when we go through earnings season, especially when we hit the retail earnings, the commentary about prices seem to be much more conservative in terms of, you know, the consumers being more choiceful, their, you know, the basket sizes are smaller, you know, things like that, which make it worse, I think, in terms of the price picture.

17:50One thing that I thought was really interesting, though, was Capital One's numbers, right? And I thought they were very good. And so I feel like they have a—they and Bank of America, maybe more than others, have a really good look at the consumer. That consumer seems fine to me, even if they are pressured. They're still employed. I think that every year people think, oh, I won't spend this much on Christmas this year. But then they do. They do every single time. Santa always has to come. All right, let's get to Intel here, raising a big post-earnings pop to end the day fractionally higher. The semi-stock had jumped nearly 8 % early in the session, hitting levels last seen in April 2024 after last night's report.

18:30Q3 revenues topping Wall Street expectations thanks to a bounce back in demand for Intel's core PC processors. During the quarter, the chipmaker had received strategic investments from NVIDIA SoftBank as well, of course, as the U.S. government. Carter, what do you make of this reversal? Well, it's been reversing for a while, right? So how to characterize it, meaning this has been the big one, it's been the big laggard. You get government sponsorship or whatever you wanted to characterize that circumstance, and it's working off its lows. But in principle, a laggard in a very strong space is not good technique, right?

19:03It has some catch-up potential, but it's caught up, has come to life. I don't think you own it here. Caught up to the point where valuation. No, it hasn't. Well, I don't know about that, but meaning semis are off and up, up, up and away, and this has not participated. Okay, it's come to life for the last five to six months, but it's a little bit too little too late is the expression. Right. But I guess my point is that, you know, even if it's too little too late, the valuations have swung much higher to the point where a lot of analysts are saying it is overvalued here by historical standards.

19:32Yeah, and I think that the idea that they short up their balance sheet with some of these sponsorships has been really good for them. And I think we've all been talking about this PC refresh for a long time that hasn't come to fruition. You're starting to actually see now that that's coming. And I think it's more like the Windows 11 refresh and the PC refresh, which is happening. But I think the question is, is that good for them? And is it good enough to offset the fact that they still have foundry losses? They're still losing market share to AMD. And I think a lot of those headwinds are still ahead of them.

19:57And, yes, I think the run-up here is probably already priced in a lot of those other optimisms. So I do think seeing a pullback here is probably indicative of people taking the profits off after the run up has already happened. Foundry is still a huge problem. It's a huge problem. And it's still unknown what the strategy is. And so I think what we're all saying is that the short term to medium term, not even the medium term, the next couple of quarters look kind of OK. And actually, there's more cash and there's certainly strategic support. But we really don't know what the medium to long term vision here is.

20:24And rethinking Foundry requires a ton of capital and a ton of strategic help from Taiwan Semi, who, you know, may or may not be there. We've all had a chance to add at different points here in the last couple weeks to Intel, even before this latest round of numbers. I haven't been doing it. Coming up, Deckers hits the deck. The numbers out of the Shoemaker's earnings that had investors giving the stock the UGG boot. Plus, the chart master says this one-time market favor could be about to zoom higher. He is talking technicals right after this.

20:57This is Fast Money with Melissa Lee. Right here on CNBC.

21:10Welcome back to Past One. You've got a buzzkill on Decker's Outdoors, the maker of Hoka sneakers and Ugg boots, sinking 15 % today after cutting its full-year sales forecast due to tariff concerns. The company now expects revenues of$5.35 billion this year versus estimates of$5.45 billion. The stock is down nearly 60 % year-to-date, hit two-year lows during the session, They said specifically that the price increases due to tariffs, that they are impacting customer purchases at this point. Yeah. Although one thing I found interesting was the Uggs versus the Hoka, I'm sorry, versus the Hoka. And expectations were the other way around.

21:50Uggs would be softer, Hoka would be better. I actually think the read-through might be a positive for Nike. And, you know, Nike, we know, has really tried to, aside from fixing the DTC, which was way too aggressive, getting back into wholesale, but also taking on On and Hoka and others. So I actually thought this was positive for Nike. We saw that On was down as well. I don't know if that's similar. They also have that same supply chain issue. I think I like Nike out of this. My read on the whole thing. I think it's a combination of there's bad macro and I think there's bad bottom up for these guys.

22:28And I just think the chart, I mean, I'll let the master talk about it in a second. But I think you've got a dynamic here where this has been, this is exactly what I would have expected from these numbers. I'm not trying to sound like Monday morning quarterback, but I've been looking at Deckers. I've been looking at, you know, a handful of these, let's call them discretionary retail apparel names, Burke, you know, you name it, on, on. I think they're all under pressure here, and I think we have one too many pairs of those things in our closet. I don't have any pairs of those things. I bet you do.