Stocks Surge, Crude Tumbles as Hormuz Reopens… And Tech Earnings On Deck 4/17/26

20:20The conversation also explored the balance between advancing innovation and ensuring safety. They say, we look forward to continuing this dialogue and will host similar discussions with other leading AI companies. So, Melissa, more to watch. Maybe we'll see more CEOs at the White House in the future.

20:34Tim Seymour:Yeah. Megan, thanks, Megan Casella. And Mike, I want to go to you in terms of positioning out to next week and what you're noticing. I mean, it's interesting because, you know, a lot has happened this week. We're going into a weekend and President Trump there is confirming that there are talks happening over the weekend between the two sides and that perhaps there's less daylight than we think between the two sides. So maybe more progress can be made. I mean, have you noticed anything interesting in terms of positioning going to next week? Well, I think one of the things that's interesting, of course, is if you take a look at consumer discretionary, it certainly has not rebounded the way a lot of other things have.

21:07And I think that if you're kind of looking at this with a barbell approach, you know, I think the way to play this, actually, I would take the other side, I guess, of some of the market action. And we sort of addressed this already is that I would probably start to look to hedge or maybe even fade technology a little bit and look to buy some of the things that have come in today a little bit, because I think those are probably the things that could reverse and reverse sharply if the conversations over the weekend don't go as hoped.

21:34Tim Seymour:I mean, if you are to think that there could be things getting, if you want to hedge, going sort of taking off tech and doing what you did, buying energy, that's like the perfect sort of hedge. I think so. I kept the tech part. Right. But I do like the energy part. Coming up, is it time to bite into Apple, the big numbers out of China, and why a couple of analysts say now is the time to buy? That's next. Plus, biotech bubbling to five-year highs. We will dig into the action, giving the space a real shot in the arm. Don't go anywhere fast when he's back in two.

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23:31Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. Apple looking appealing. Shares popping 2.6 % today after a report that Chinese iPhone shipments surged 20 % in Q1. It was the biggest jump among large device makers, according to CounterPoint Research. BNP also upgrading the stock from a neutral to an outperform, upping the price target to$300, While Bank of America called it the highest quality name amid the AI volatility, Apple is still underperforming the Mag 7 this year, basically flat since January. Tim, I know you like that joke. You appreciate the appealing. Do you think it's appealing?

24:04Karen Finerman:That's good. I want to give credit where credit's due. First of all, you delivered the joke well, but that's great writing behind the scenes. So I think it's good. I think this is also a good time to buy Apple. I think this is a good time in terms of, you know, all we're doing is talking about rotation and what's moved and what hasn't. This is usually where you start to see Apple outperform after it's underperformed. And yet mega cap tech does have some life. So I like the story. I like the story that is the China sales are better than people expected. First quarter, certainly better. The fact that Apple can also withstand and be resilient against memory price hikes and what that could mean and what it means more for other people.

24:44Karen Finerman:They have the ASP flexibility. There's an argument they're going to grow ASPs 10 to 15 percent over the next few years. Therefore, I think of all the players that actually can hang in there in a difficult environment on memory, it's absolutely Apple. It is not cheap. It is. I like the rhetoric from the analyst community we just cited. It's it's it's a very safe play here to me. Yeah.

25:06Tim Seymour:The ability to withstand the memory price increases. That was a huge driving force in the BNP Parabon note. Mike, I saw you nodding. Do you like Apple here, too? I do. And I have to say that in fairness, I wasn't as enthusiastic about it when I probably should have been. You know, one of the things about seeing these improved sales numbers in China is remember what the narrative about Apple was in recent years. And it was about services and it was about the ecosystem. And, of course, if you see above expected sales, what you're going to have is more people in that ecosystem. So that isn't just a one-time transaction that's going to give them a bit of a tailwind.

25:43That's likely to persist. And the options market really liked what it was hearing. We saw about 1.4 million call contracts trade today. The 20-day average is about a half a million. So in addition to the buyers of the stock, there were a lot of people buying some upside in the options market as well. I think it's the same story that Apple has been very judicious about where they're spending money. And I think BNP, Karen was saying that BNP really hit the core of this story. and they really touched on where the bullishness stems from. So anyone else has something, you could just jump in there, Timmy.

26:14Come on now. If only we had someone named Adam on the desk. Good.

26:19Tim Seymour:Very good. Do you like Apple? Eh, it's all right. I just think it's expensive, the blended multiple, when you take out the hardware part, the services part. I don't know, but I've said that for a long time. All right. There's a lot more Fast Money to come. Here's what's coming up next.

26:33Karen Finerman:A biotech breakout. The group hitting five-year highs as it clocks a third straight week of gains. We'll dive into what's driving the eye-popping action and the names leading the charge. Plus, the wartime trade turns on its head. What's next for the market as the bottom falls out of energy stocks, fertilizer names, and more? We'll dig in with one top analyst next. You're watching Fast Money, live from the NASDAQ market side in Times Square. We're back right after this.

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28:15Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. The XBI biotech ETF hitting nearly five-year highs today. It's up nearly 14 % since the start of the year. That is more than three times the return on the S &P. Notable winners this month include Relay Therapeutics, Soleno, and RevMed, which earlier this week announced positive trial results for a potentially breakthrough pancreatic cancer drug. Mike, do you see the options activity backing up this rally? Yeah, I mean, there is quite a lot of activity. Actually, I'll take a quick peek. I have it on my screen over here. We'll see exactly what happened today. I had this up on my monitor, actually.

28:48So we've got a decent number of call contracts trading, probably about 10 ,000. I will add, though, that on the back of this rally for a couple of days, there was some put purchasing going on. I think probably because people who are in this, this is a highly volatile space. We're probably looking to backstop some of the gains that they've been seeing. So that might be some hedging activity. You know, we're still on a price to sales basis. I mean, this is a pretty speculative area, probably about around the 10 year average right now and still well off the all time highs, which were actually a little longer than five years ago.

29:20So, you know, I think there is some potential upside. But this is not really an area that I play in a whole lot, though, admittedly. When you look at risk, risk on trade is usually biotech. So two reasons, Pat and Cliff, that we all talked about this, and Jared Holtz, who's been on the show, has said it's going to be more of a string of pearls approach. So a lot of these companies could be getting bought out. The other thing is they burn cash at a high rate. So if you're going to have to push it forward with your cash burn, lower rates are paramount. And if you think that now the end of the war results in lower rates and the Fed cutting, it's a tailwind.

29:57I think there's got to be some AI excitement in it as well. Oh, yeah. Right.

30:02Tim Seymour:Even the Novo announcement, right, the deal with open AI trying to find the next sort of big drug helped by AI. Right. So if you have something that's in an experimental phase, but you think you could get there a lot more quickly than you used to. I think I feel like that with quantum, it's all sort of a little bit of the super excitement around AI. The productivity gains. Yeah. Tim, would you like to add? I'm a buyer.

30:23Karen Finerman:Yes. Well, sorry. Yeah. To me, I'd be over XBI just because I think we have bigger companies, more certainly more cash flow, more, I guess, risk tolerant. I do think the pharma space, there are a handful of names that have really put in a very strong six to nine months. And they include things like a Bristol, a Pfizer, names that were cheap, names that were beaten up for many years and took a long time to kind of reverse. we have more clarity, and I think we've de-risked those businesses. So I like the space. I think I would probably be IBB over XBI, although you didn't ask.

30:57Tim Seymour:All right. Coming up, I will allow it. Coming up, crude oil plunging as investors hope for a swift end to the war in the Middle East, what the wartime trade reversal means for the energy space. That's next.

31:10Karen Finerman:Missed a moment of fast? Catch us anytime on the go. Follow the Fast Money Podcast. We're back right after this.

31:25Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money Stocks. Soaring to cap off a monster week of gains, all three major indices up more than a percent on the day, with the S &P 500 closing above 7 ,100 for the first time. The Nasdaq locking in its longest winning streak since 1992. The Dow about 2 % from a record of its own. For the week, the Dow up 3%, the S &P gaining 4.5%, and the Nasdaq surging nearly 7%. The DOJ reportedly preparing an antitrust lawsuit against some of the country's biggest egg producers over potential coordinated pricing after hiking prices in 2024 and 2025 due to a supply shortage. Cal main and vital farms both lower in the aft hours on the back of this.

32:03Tim Seymour:Well, as broad markets hit records, the war trade unwound in a big way today as Iran's foreign minister declared the Strait of Hormuz completely open. WTI crude plunging almost 12 percent to settle just under$84 a barrel. Brent dropping 9 percent. The weakness hitting oil stocks. Today's biggest laggers include Valero dropping nearly 8 percent. Occidental Petroleum, ConocoPhillips and Phillips 66 also sharply lower. Fertilizer stocks also getting wallop. Lionel Basel tumbling 12 percent. See if industry is down almost 10 percent. So first, as well as chemicals, all lower there. For more on the oil trade, let's bring in Denton Cinquegrana, chief oil analyst at the Oil Price Information Service, or Opus.

32:45Tim Seymour:Great to have you, Denton. Hey, Melissa, how are you today? Good. I'm wondering what you make of the decline and the assumption that the all-clear is clear just because the foreign minister of Iran says the strait is open. Yeah. When I woke up this morning, I wasn't expecting this or this type of move. At the end of the day, we're still not out of the woods yet here. You have a tremendous backlog of ships. I still think the traffic is not back to anywhere close to normal. Over the past 24 hours, there were two ships, and now tracking showing maybe about 12 ships going through. And then more recently, over the last couple hours, we're starting to see some ships maybe even turn back and go back to port.

33:27So like I said, I don't think we're out of the woods just yet on this. Certainly a step in the right direction, though. Hey, Denton, it's Mike. I just have a quick question for you on the product side. Obviously, Asia is one of the spots where there's been a meaningful product shortfall, like jet fuel and so on. What is the lag that we're looking at, number one, in terms of getting the crude to that area, and number two, spooling back up the local refineries? Yeah, that's a great question, Mike. Really, I'll start with the refineries first. They first need to get into there and see what kind of damage was done, if any.

34:01So we'll have to wait a couple weeks for that damage assessments. And then once you get a refinery restarted, it just doesn't start making on specification products. It's going to take several weeks. So I think really kind of like you're looking at about 12 weeks from start to finish of when this all ends to when things get to normal. Now, as far as getting crude oil to those Asian refineries, about 80 % of those refineries, or Asia relies on the Persian Gulf for about 80 % of their crude needs. Obviously, it's going to take about a month to get those barrels over there. So they're still really in a tough situation right now.

34:43Denton, it's Karen. Thanks for being on. So something we talk about on the desk a lot is oil was at 65 before any of this. So let's say we have a truce and a deal and everyone believes this is past, we're past this and the strait is open and all of that. What do you think the price of oil is in that scenario? Yeah, I think, again, there's a lot of cleanup that needs to be done. Wells need to be brought back online. The backlog of ships needs to be cleared, as I mentioned before. I still think Brent stays above$80 for the remainder of 2026. That puts WTI probably in about the$75 per barrel area.

35:23Obviously above where we were pre-war levels, but well off some of these astronomical highs. And we're still seeing physical prices, even though they came down today as well, that are still quite high as well. But the futures market, I would think, would drop into the kind of 80, low 80s for the remainder of the year once we get kind of, you know, most, as you said before, the all clear sign.

35:45Karen Finerman:Tim, so the genie's out of the bottle in terms of energy security. It probably shouldn't have been in the bottle before. But what's different tomorrow? You know, the world is also the rest of the world outside the United States seemingly is scrambling to secure energy. Help us think about tomorrow's trade in terms of some of these developments. And just, again, what's different tomorrow outside of we know everyone else is looking to be more secure in the future? Yeah, I think this puts the U.S. as a whole in a great position, particularly U.S. refiners as it pertains to refined products. I was looking at some data earlier today, and on a year-to-date basis, we've exported about 19 million barrels of jet fuel, a little more than a million barrels of that coming from the New York Harbor.

36:29That's a rare move where New York Harbor jet fuel is going to Europe. And obviously, we've seen the headlines about airlines really struggling there with jet fuel needs. So I think that's one of the things to really take away is how well-positioned and how blessed and fortunate the United States is. And North America in general is going to be a privileged continent going forward.

36:52Tim Seymour:Denton, I saw on the notes that you think there would be some relief at the pump in the coming weeks, is it? I mean, usually you see prices go up, you don't see them come down quite as quickly. And so I'm wondering, you know, if this is sort of a tenuous ceasefire at this point, how long we can bank on those prices going down and staying a little bit lower from here. Yeah, we've seen prices really starting to trickle back down. National average is about$4.07 right now. I do think with the amount of the drop we've seen over the past really several days, in addition to today's massive drop, I think you could see that national average drop down to below$3, maybe, or sorry, below$4.

37:36I think everyone would love below$3, but below$4 sometime in the middle of next week.

37:42Tim Seymour:Wow, good news for a lot of people. Denton, great to speak with you. Thank you. Thanks for having me. And in sync with Gara. So what do you think in terms of I mean, it's a great, as we said, meant before, it's a great setup for a lot of the oil equities. So I do think that the refiners, their input cost is the cost of a barrel oil. I think that there's a tailwind for them with lower prices. So I would be a buyer of the refiner's names. Other than that, I would be a seller in energy. Think about it a couple of different ways. The Trump administration needs to prepare for midterms. So they need lower oil prices.

38:12But if we substantively reduce Iran as a threat to the world, and it sounds like we might have hopes of doing that, I think the risk premium comes out drastically. I'd be looking for$65 barrel oil.

38:26Tim Seymour:What do you think, Mike? $65, I think we're still some time away from that. It's just going to take a long time to essentially recover. We have the SPR, which is going to need some refilling as well. It actually needed refilling even before all of this. I don't know how much that drawdown is going to end up being, but those things actually end up creating a little bit of support. And then I imagine that also others that have the ability to have it within their supply chain are going to want to keep a slightly larger reserve perhaps than they had previously. Yeah. Coming up, Tesla, Intel, and Boeing.

38:57Tim Seymour:We will trade next week's biggest earnings reports and get the read from the options market next. More Fast Money in 2.

39:11Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money, UnitedHealth, GE, Aerospace, Tesla, IBM, and Intel. Just some of the names set to report earnings next week. Elon Musk's EV and AI company up about 3 % today and nearly 15 % for the week. And Intel hitting its highest level since the year 2000, more than 55 % already this month. So, Mike, which names are you watching most closely? Yeah, I mean, of the names that are reporting, I mean, four that I'm looking at, Boeing, General Electric, Intel, and Tesla. Boeing right now, the options market's implying about a 5 % move. GE about 6%. And Intel's implying a move of about 11%.

39:48So quite large there. Tesla, 6.5%. Wow. Tim, do you like any of these names?

39:55Tim Seymour:Yeah, I like Boeing.

39:57Karen Finerman:I think the story around deliveries in Mark's route was actually quite weak. The story overall, though, for Boeing is, I think, continuing to just be this return into free cash flow and free cash flow that by the end of 26 and going into 27 really should start to look at a free cash flow yield that's in the low single digits. And that's great, great news for shareholders of Boeing. So I like that story. Intel is very difficult to handicap this one. It's not a valuation story. It's a strategic and a strategic industry story. It's Chips USA against to what extent our CPUs and their core business that's eroded and had major competition, at least in a sweeter spot than it was before.

40:41Karen Finerman:And I think that's part of the perception here. But the perception is that there's a deal there that we don't know about. And I think it's risky. So I would look at, is that the same question? What am I looking at next week?

40:51Tim Seymour:Yeah. You want to give me another name? Because IBM is interested. IBM is interested. You said it on your show with Mike, I'd like to hear the commentary on AI and on quantum because they were the original in so many different things. I'd like to hear their macro viewpoint on that. Tim touched on it. Boeing is still a quote unquote restructuring issue. So and it's been a very tradable stock. I think the upside from here is probably only about 10 bucks. So 5 % move. So it's not really that attractive. And if you look at Intel, Intel was a quadruple. Where does it go from here, I'd be lightning up there.

41:26So Boeing also, I like Boeing. It's in my acronym to say whatever you would like about my acronym. But yes, it is the B &B dang, I think. I don't even remember exactly. But anyway, I do think, you know, that basically the story that Tim laid out, the cash flow story, the generation from the airspace is great. I'm a little less optimistic than I was coming into the year about Boeing defense. I feel like they've had some contracts that haven't been great. And I feel like warfare is changing. And I am concerned that they might be not changing as quickly as we, I don't know. But it's as much of a layup as it was.

42:07Yeah. Mike? Yeah, no, I'm inclined to agree. I mean, we're seeing that. And that's one of the reasons why companies like Andro, which, of course, is still private, are extremely interesting. You know, and looking at Tesla, which, of course, we were just talking about these implied moves, there was quite a lot of bullish activity there. This thing traded more than double its average daily call volume. And the most active contracts that traded were the 400 strike calls that expire at the end of next week. We saw over 42 ,000 of those trading for about$14. That's just about 3 % of the current stock price.

42:39And if you look back historically over the past decade or so, the stock has actually moved quite a lot more than the 6 % or so that the options market is currently implying. So, in fact, even though buying calls going into the print has only made money about 30 % of the time, the amount that it made when it won means that actually this trade is probably more than cheaply priced.

43:01Tim Seymour:Interesting. Coming up, the sneaky chip stock driving big gains in an under-the-radar value ETF, what it says about the traditional safe haven stocks. And here's a sneak peek at the Kramer cam. Jim is chatting exclusively with the 100X CEO. 100X CEO. Catch a full interview, top of the hour on Mad Money. More Fast Money in two.

43:28Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. It has been a hot start to 2026 for one value ETF. We don't talk much about the iShares USA Value Factor ETF. That's VLUE, up nearly 16 percent so far this year. What is interesting about this fund is how much exposure it has to the traditionally growthy tech and communication sectors, which make up about 50 percent of its holdings, according to Barron's. A typical fund has about 20 percent exposure to those groups. Red Hot Micron is actually the fund's biggest holding, accounting for about 11 percent of the portfolio, while shares are up about 60 percent this year.

44:04Tim Seymour:The stock is trading at only about five times forward earnings. So it is cheap on that basis of perhaps a value stock. But it's not what you think of when you think of a value ETF, Karen. No, I mean, good for them. I'm just looking at the chart. That's been quite a run. I don't own it. But yeah, 10 percent in micron technology. Yes, the P.E. is low. Got some downside, though. Right. But I mean, and so that's sort of what is value in this kind of market? That may be value. And that may be value. When you're getting into a value ETF like VLUE, is that what you're bargaining for, Tim? This is a classic case of know what you're buying.

44:43Karen Finerman:Yes, ETFs definitely look under the hood. We talk about homebuilders sometimes don't really have a lot. ETF doesn't have homebuilders at the top of the ledger. The thing about Micron is that this has been historically a value play and traded as such because of the cyclicality of its space. I think you have a dynamic where you also have to, I mean, I don't know how actively the fund is managed, and I don't know if it's based on an index and quarterly rebalanced. But if that's the case, you have to, again, you have to watch these rebalances because they can create significant volatility in that underlying.

45:19You know, it reminds me of GARP, right? Growth at a reasonable price. And when you're looking at tech, you think about unrealistic growth. We think about the names that we talk about every day. These are based on valuation, but it can burn both ways. I would be a seller of Micron, which makes me a seller of this value ETF.

45:36Tim Seymour:All right. Up next, final trades.

45:45Karen Finerman:final trade timbo the b not the b in timbo but the b obviously in bedang we'll go with boeing thank you my co katerra acquisition she closed by the end of june so get paid to wait by selling cash covered puts in devon energy karen yes baba is my final trade and happy birthday to my twins Kate and William. I remember it like it was a long time ago when you were born. Anyway, love you. Steve. It's one of these names. I picked it last week. I'm picking it again because I had a great week. S.L. Green, commercial real estate names, premium property. This is the one to go for if you're going to be in that area.

46:24Tim Seymour:One more birthday wish to Mary Duffy. Yes. Thanks for watching. fast and that money's up next.

46:35All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet, or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such.

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