Stocks Surge On Potential End Of War… And Countdown to SpaceX Public Debut 6/11/26

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0:33And a really smart one you can set? Earning cash back on what you buy every day. And with Discover, you can. Get this. Discover automatically matches all the cash back you've earned at the end of your first year. Seriously, all of it. And we trust you to make smart decisions. After all, you listen to this show. See terms at discover.com slash credit card. Live from the Nasdaq Market Sight, right here in the heart of New York City's Times Square, this is Fast Money. Here's what's on tap. A Trump-infused stocks surge. Markets ripping higher as the president canceled planned evening strikes against Iran and says, again, that a peace deal or a deal of a deal is at hand.

1:16What we're hearing out of the Middle East ahead and just hours to lift off. SpaceX set to debut right here at the Nasdaq tomorrow. We have got the latest details on this blockbuster IPO. Everything you need to know and maybe some things you don't about the first trade. Plus, an Oracle hangover. The chart master bets on a bounce in the gold miners and how the Knicks championship run is not only giving fans a surge, but a stock as well. Hey, everybody. I am Brian Sullivan in for Melissa tonight coming to you live from Studio B right here at the Nasdaq. And on your desk tonight, Karen Feinerman, Carterworth, Bono and Eisen and Stu Kaiser, head of equity trading strategy at Citi.

2:01Welcome, everybody. Big show. And let's begin with the powerful stock market surge that we saw late day. The rally coming as President Trump canceling this evening's threatened strikes on Iran, indicating that a peace deal or a framework of a deal may indeed be near. The Dow and S &P rallying almost 2 percent. The Nasdaq soaring more than two and a half percent. The S &P 500 and Nasdaq both today wiping out yesterday's steep losses. And take a look at oil. It dropped. It was down already, but it dropped sharply right before the close. Crude is now in the mid -$80 range after trading in the 90s earlier in the session and 112 two months ago.

2:49Let's start off tonight by getting all the breaking developments. They are fast moving. Some of them trying to clear up minute by minute. Megan Casella in D.C. with more. Megan. Brian, that's absolutely right. President Trump says the U.S. is close to a deal with Iran that would end the fighting, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and launch a new phase of negotiations over some of the nuclear issues that started the war in the first place. So while markets soared on this news, it is clear that this agreement is not yet set in stone. The president described documents as being in, quote, pretty final shape.

3:21And when he was asked how confident he was that it would be done this weekend, here's what he said. It'll be soon, maybe this weekend. And has the Supreme Leader approved this deal, sir? I understand the answer is yes. And when this deal is signed, is the United States going to immediately lift the blockade? Yes, that's part of the deal. Saying there that he understands the Supreme Leader has signed off on the deal, but a number of different Iranian state media outlets are all reporting that Iran has not yet reached a final conclusion about the agreement or signed off on any text. And Brian, the other caveat here is that even once finalized, it appears that this deal would be a memorandum of understanding that would launch negotiations on all of the more difficult issues, including things like what to do with Iran's highly enriched uranium and what to do about its enrichment program overall.

4:12So for now, we appear to be a step closer to reopening the strait and getting perhaps a more stable ceasefire in place. But the more difficult negotiations are all just getting started. Yes, as we discussed when the news broke, just to be clear, what we know about this is that this would be a framework, a deal of a deal or a 60 day pause on any aggression to create a later deal. Correct. This would not be, quote, the deal. That's absolutely right. And the president spoke for a long time in the Oval Office with reporters on this who tried to pin him down and get a few more of the details out of him.

4:46I mean, we weren't getting a whole lot of clarity. At one point, the president was asked what sort of a deadline might be in place. You and I spoke earlier, Brian, was it going to be 30 days, 60 or 90 days, at which point we would try to get a firmer deal in hand. And the president said, I don't want to put a deadline on that. I'll also flag that there was a fairly pointed statement put out by the Israeli prime minister's office, Netanyahu, where he said, while Israel isn't a party to this MOU, he says Israel appreciates the president's commitment to a number of these most difficult issues on enrichment infrastructure, on limiting missile production, on the cessation of Iran's support for its terrorist proxies in the region.

5:20Brian, just looking at those issues, these are things where there is no clarity that we'll be able to reach any sort of agreement with Iran on it. Clearly, Israel is holding firm on still needing to get that done. And that's what lies ahead, even once we get this one framework in hand. Yeah. And who we have negotiated with may not be some of the people that have control over the rockets, the missiles, the drones or the guns. That's right. So we'll see what happens. But for now, good news. And the market liked it. Megan Casella, thank you very much. Stu Kaiser, listen, we always say, well, the market's not trading on Iran.

5:52It's only trading on AI. Well, I think today the move showed maybe that's not entirely accurate. Yeah, I think to your point, it's good news. You know, the war was heating up again. It looked like we were going to get another shooting war. So it's good news that that seems to be kind of pushed off the table. To your point, though, we had taken down the tail risk pricing in oil by about 75 percent over the last couple of months. So the market equity market was largely kind of discounting that that the ceasefire remained in place. Again, you got some attacks over the last couple of weeks that I think had the market trying to reevaluate that.

6:22And the headlines today basically reversed that risk premium pretty quickly. And Karen, in a big way, I mean, I think it helped that the market was up. So the momentum was there. The buyers were there. this just kind of added a little bit of juice to the market. But are you a buyer? Well, I'm always long, so I'm a buyer all the time. But I think you're right. It added some juice. I mean, I don't know that any of us here would be surprised if this MOU didn't exactly come into fruition exactly over the weekend. And as they hope, that wouldn't surprise anyone. So I think the market really shrugs off a lot of what used to be much more, much bigger reactions to around news than they do now.

7:03We'll see. I think SpaceX matters. Yeah, I'll say I'll say sentiment indicator. I will add this so you don't have to say it. I'll say it. I've reported often there are numerous warring factions inside of Iran. It is entirely possible we wake up tomorrow and there's a headline of some kind of Iranian attack. And you're thinking, I thought we had a deal or a framework of a deal. It's because there are multiple people asserting control in that country. So it's entirely possible. Let's hope for peace. We have something totally different tomorrow. Yeah, I think that's not named SpaceX. That's right.

7:34Well, I think SpaceX is just the indicator, sort of a marker of a moment in time of euphoria or not euphoria or something. We'll see. But you're right. This is a difficult. Normally, we don't see the sausage making this much. We don't hear about an MOU and then back and forth. You hear about a deal, a diplomatic deal. It was a sloppy tape. I mean, you're talking about the headlines, it's all green. But, I mean, 180 issues in the S &P were down, 320. That's not a huge spread between the number up. We know that it was defensive stuff that was down. Staples were down. Utilities were down. Energy were down.

8:03But software was down. It's a major part of the sort of the market cap of the S &P and a major part of the economy. Mixed bag. I wouldn't say it's quite as good as the headlines and all the green would suggest. But you're talking about pre this headline, right? No, no, no. I'm talking about the close. You're talking about the close. So you even throw a little cold water. No, the data is the data. 320 stocks advanced, 180, and the S &P declined. Right? A lot of stocks didn't do as well as the market did. And, in fact, a very important area, software, was down, along with other defensive things.

8:35Not to say the software is defensive. Utilities were down. Staples were down. So forth and so forth. Okay. So facts matter. Facts matter. Data matters. Bonham and I said facts matter. He just gave the facts. I also know the S &P rose 2%. 2 percent. The Nasdaq was up two and a half percent. So something mattered today. What mattered to you? Listen, I think it's tough to argue that the whole situation around Iran and the straight-up from O's is not impacting markets. Today's price action, top line to Carter's point, albeit it's still very impactful. We're talking about several percentage points in terms of reversal today.

9:12Again, I want to underscore that Carter brings of an important point, but I think that that condition has held true. If you look at the week ending June 2nd, we still had a situation where despite that rally, it was very narrow in scope. So in terms of the concentration of advance and decliners, that has been the condition over the last several weeks. So I do think it is noteworthy, but it's not inconsistent with what we have seen leading up to this. I think the other thing that's important is the inflationary backdrop. We got CPI and PPI numbers. There seem to be some divergence between core and the headline number.

9:47And I think any alleviation that we get on energy and input costs around this around situation definitely is positive for stocks at the market. Yeah, it was a positive day today. All right, Stu, we're going to jump ahead in the rundown, as we say, because I am told there is something big happening here tomorrow. That event is the SpaceX IPO. It is going to be the biggest IPO in American history. It may be the biggest in global history. $1.7 trillion cap, but the float not expected to be too much. We're hearing four, maybe five times oversubscribed. I understand you guys at Citi on the book, so you can't go into the SpaceX details.

10:31But can you talk to us in a macro way about what it might mean for the market writ large? Yeah, I think what you're seeing here is a lot of excitement about that IPO in particular. But bigger picture, there's a view that you have multiple other IPOs later in the year. You had Meta, you had Amazon, you had Google on the tape last week, kind of introducing more equity supply. You've had convertible bond supply. You've had IG bond supply. So I think what you're seeing here is over the last couple of weeks, the market's kind of reevaluating the amount of supply of new assets that are going to hit the market both this week and also for the balance of the year.

11:04And I think that's one of the reasons you're seeing kind of a mixed tape lately. And, you know, I would expect that part of it to continue because it is a lot of supply across asset in large cap tech to fund this buildup. Well, let's get more details on what I'm told is a pretty big deal. You know what else is a big deal? Leslie Picker. And she's going to join us now because we've got some details, Leslie, but I think we're still waiting on details on, you know, size and indications. And can you pick, see what I did there, a time where we think we know when the first trade might occur? Oh, gosh.

11:44It's anyone's guess at this point in time, Brian, when the first trade will be. But I would bet you should set aside some time in the afternoon, maybe between 1 and 3. This is the largest IPO ever, as you point out. So we've never really seen how long it will take to open something that's$75 billion in size. And SpaceX just, you know, within the last hour and a half or so, saying in a filing that it has officially priced at$135 per share, now the largest IPO of all time officially. I've been chatting with sources close to this one on how the book all came together. I'm told that in the end it was almost five times oversubscribed.

12:27In other words, five times as many indications of interest as there were shares available. Those are non-binding orders, though. Now the process begins where the banks and brokerages will reach out to investors to inform them how much allocation they actually received, and those orders will come through. In terms of the makeup of the offering, I'm told retail is going to get the low 20 % of the IPO. That includes private bank clients, international retail, and e-brokers like Robinhood and SoFi. I'm told that domestic retail demand was a lot bigger than international, but it's a deeper market and one where Elon Musk, of course, has a long track record of retail support.

13:06Still, that low 20s number, slightly smaller than the 30 percent we had been told the company was targeting. I'm told the top of the book is pretty well concentrated among long onlys and that there were cutbacks in the middle and the bottom of the book, largely hedge funds that put in what the bankers perceived to be highly inflated orders. Now, we'll see if the cutbacks were high enough to stimulate aftermarket demand tomorrow when the shares begin trading. At what time, Brian? I couldn't tell you, but hopefully it happens sometime tomorrow afternoon. I would say, Leslie Picker, thank you. And I'm just 2.01 p.m.

13:43Eastern time would be a perfect time for SpaceX to begin trading. That's what else happens at 2.01. I just randomly grabbed that time out of the air. I'm 202, 159, somewhere around that. Maybe the 01. It makes it a little. Well, right. You know, welcome to Power Lunch. SpaceX is trading. Sounds nice. Leslie Picker, we'll see you in like five hours. Back on CNBC Live. Leslie, thank you. Karen, your take on SpaceX. Well, it's fascinating as a sort of moment in time. You know, I'm very value-oriented. The fundamentals here are sort of hard to. Not value-oriented? Yeah, not value-oriented. Exactly.

14:19Exactly. I mean, it's it's I mean, a couple of things have happened that one could consider negative, but they I don't think they will be. You know, the blue origin blow up last week. You could say, oh, it's positive because of competitor or it shows a lot of risk in the business. The other thing is, you know, the I don't know who from Iran you might know better than I said about Elon Musk properties, Starlink and whatnot, that they would be considered, you know, viable targets. Right. That's probably also not a good thing. But maybe let's dismiss that as well. Just the aura around Elon is so extraordinary that I think it will trade.

14:54It will trade up decently, probably not where it would have two or three weeks ago, for sure. But does it matter how well if the stock goes up 100 percent or 80 percent or 10 percent? Does it matter? Matters that doesn't go down. Remember when when when underwriters would hold they would never let it break deal price because that would be embarrassing. Is there a syndicate bid at 135? It's saying that's what's going to happen. It has happened. I don't think it's going to happen tomorrow. I think, you know, the incredible thing is it just shows how darn big Saudi Aramco was. Remember, the valuation of that IPO was$1.7 trillion.

15:26That was in 2019. The valuation of Spaces is$1.7 trillion. The S &P has more than doubled since then. So on a percentage basis, it just shows how big Saudi Aramco's IPO was. This is the same five years later in a market that's doubled. So on a relative basis, that's still the biggest by far of all time. All right. For more on this, let's bring in Laura Rippey, managing partner at Alumni Ventures. Laura, you do this for a living. Good to see you as well. Wish you were on set like you normally are. What do you make of SpaceX? What is it? Why does it matter so much? Why are we so captivated by this company?

16:01We are, aren't we? It's a big day, Brian. Yeah, I think the venture perspective on this is the unlock that comes after SpaceX. Right. We've got incredible talent within the company. We've got a whole bunch of capital that gets unlocked once the IPO happens. And then a whole slew of new companies can be formed. So for us, it's looking around the corner and understanding where the space economy can go and how this is just an incredible unlock for the venture industry. We couldn't be more excited. How? Connect the dots. Why does this one matter so much for the venture industry? Because there's this there's this Elon Musk guy that when he gets involved in things, it tends to generate more attention.

16:46But does it seep through to the ninety nine point nine percent of the market? That's not Elon Musk. Yeah. So let's put this in context of what happened when AWS dropped the cost of hosting by ninety seven percent. Suddenly we had a whole boatload of companies like DoorDash and Airbnb and the like. because hosting costs cut down. In the same way with SpaceX, the value that SpaceX has brought to the space industry is reducing the cost of getting loads from the Earth to low Earth orbit. So that suddenly says we can do things like manufacture in space. We need the communications for space. We have an entire defense opportunity in the space world.

17:31We have logistics that need to happen, moving things around, all of those companies. future incredible venture-backed superstars that get unlocked because SpaceX has a position in the space economy to really grow it. And with this new capital, it is an exciting moment in time for the space economy. So you must see a bunch of companies that we don't get to see, you know, smaller startup private companies you guys invest in in Alumni Ventures. I hate to use the term halo around a space company, but I have to do it because I don't know what else to do, so it's not a dad joke. But how big is the SpaceX halo then for other companies?

18:13It's very large. So last year, there was$55 billion of venture capital that went into space economy companies. Great example. We've done a lot of this, right? Varda, Axiom, Northwood, Hawkeye. The one that I would highlight is impulse space, because it really speaks to the fact that there is talent and there is also capital that gets released. So Impulse Space, the founder is the first employee at SpaceX. Tom Mueller, he was literally Elon Musk's first hire. The president and chief operating officer was the number 13 employee. So the classic example of talent that leaves SpaceX and starts something else.

18:51Now, we've been backing Impulse Space since the A, We're going to be we're going to see. They just did a D, a five hundred million dollar D. And the lead investor was a venture capital firm that has a very significant early position in SpaceX, a 10 billion dollar value position right now. They just raised a big round and now they're backing impulse space as the heir to the SpaceX future, because what impulse space does is really pick up where SpaceX leaves off. SpaceX takes loads from the Earth to low Earth orbit, and impulse space moves those loads more broadly into GEO, into the further space.

19:36So really tied together with talent and capital, it's emblematic of what we're going to see in the space economy with this IPO. Could not be more excited. Wow. I just looked on their website. They have 145 open positions for jobs. impulse space. They want to hire 145 people for a company that probably has 145 people. Yeah. So they have$200 million in booked revenue. So they need the people to deliver on that revenue. Yeah. Pretty amazing stuff. A rocket ship called Rideshare. I hope we're on it someday. Who knows? Laura Rippey, thank you very much. Folks, we don't need to say this, But be sure to tune in to CNBC all day tomorrow, starting at 5 a.m., continue coverage of the SpaceX IPO.

20:25Kick it off. Morgan Brennan's got a big interview with the COO of SpaceX. Then you've got the opening bell at the NASDAQ. And then we're going to wait for that thing to open up. Full team coverage, 5 a.m. Anybody want to, like, just go? Bono, when you got, like, should we do, like, a pool, like a World Cup pool, like when this first trade will happen? Just guess the time. Let's have some fun with it. I thought with the pools, you just fill out these random sheets, and then the numbers are assigned thereafter. So, sure, I mean, if you want a random guess, who are you, 201? I'll raise your 201 to 209.

20:58Your price is right at me. That's unbelievable. Carter, you want to just take a guess on a time? I'll split the difference. Put me in at 205. Look at that. I love it. Karen? All right. Well, I'll go in at 930, and I have all that open space between that and 209. Oh, that's right, because if we go over, we lose. Okay, Karen Feinerman. As usual, out thinking us all. Coming up, shares of Lenar, the home builder, on the move after reporting the details and numbers of the home builder's quarter next. But first, Oracle's big software slide. The shares down today because they're selling more stock. What our traders make of that drop and more when fast money returns.

21:36Right over here.

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22:41It's smart to always have a few financial goals and a really smart one you can set. Earning cash back on what you buy every day. And with Discover, you can. Get this. Discover automatically matches all the cash back you've earned at the end of your first year. Seriously, all of it. And we trust you to make smart decisions. After all, you listen to this show. See terms at discover.com slash credit card. All right, welcome back to Fast Money. Oracle shares sliding as much as 11 % today. They did it in the day off their lows. The market came up. Drop coming after the company said that it's planning to offer an additional$20 billion in capital raise and expecting negative free cash flow.

23:26Shares now down about 6%, Karen, on the year. Your take on Oracle. So clearly the street was somewhat surprised, sort of. Not about the capital raise, but we've seen it, you know, starting with Google. And as you said at the top of the show, all the others coming to market in the same space. So that's going to be difficult. Also, the software part of the business was disappointing. So that was sort of adding to the IGV today. I mean, the RPO is good, but we just need to go from RPO to actually, you know, building the product and actually delivering. So that's the hard part. I don't own it. It's not crazy expensive, but I'd rather play it other ways.

24:09Yeah, I think the current point of this just sort of checks all the boxes of what people are worried about in the space. Right. The software revenues aren't great, apparently. And you're raising more cash and you have negative free cash flow. I mean, it's funny. I think in September I was on the show the day Oracle reported and it was sort of a similar reaction. In that case, the stock rallied. But very quickly, you know, people started to fade it, you know, for all these reasons. I think negative free cash flow has just really become a huge talking point across across large cap tech. and they've checked that box again.