Strong Memory Momentum… And The Next Move For Retail Stocks 3/17/26

17:54So even though crude might be 95, 96, distillates are way above that. And I think that's the more important one because that's the one that's going to roll through to the consumer, right? You're going to see that reflected in, you know, airline-taking prices because the jet fuel concerns there. So keep that in mind in terms of how we're thinking about this. It's not necessarily just spot crude prices. It's all the derivatives, and you sort of talked about that for ag. So, you know, there's a potential here that if you look at that forward curve for oil, it's starting to push higher and it's starting to flatten out, which means the market is telling you they're starting to price it higher for longer.

18:26That's just going to be a continued drag. But I think, to Dan's point, how much does that drag on the consumer and the overall economy? So starting points matter here, right? Coming into this, I would argue that the consumer is probably not in as great shape as it has been in prior shocks. You're seeing wages that the last GDP print that came out, real income X transfers, basically running at 0 % year on year. Savings rate just continues to get whittled down. We can't keep up this consumption rate. And then you start throwing on this energy shock that's adversely impacting prices at the pump, for example.

18:57I just don't think the consumer is set up to really withstand this. And you're going to see some slowing. So what do you do? What's the advice? Yeah, slowly you're going to start to see recession odds ticking higher. What does that mean? Buy consumer staples? I don't know about that, but I would certainly start off by rotating out of cyclicals and start to maybe move back into the growth complex. So you're maybe looking at buying things like tech, pharma, biotech, moving away from materials, financials, industrials, that sort of thing. All right, Jack, thanks for joining us on the eve of a Fed meeting.

19:28Jack Genesiewicz from Natixis. Carter? I think the answer to your question is what to buy. It's buy treasuries. Yeah, of course. I mean, not of course. Well, not of course. I don't know. I was talking about higher yields despite lower rates. Yeah, but here's the thing. Weaker growth? We never once closed above 5%. Not in the past three years, five years, 10 years, 15 years. Meaning you have to go back to 07 to be above 5. If you were to do a chat, AI search, higher for longer. Has anyone used that phrase on this desk tonight? No, it disappeared. Do you know when the peak when that was? Actually, he just used it for oil.

19:59Okay, but the point is higher for longer was a misnomer. Whenever you hear something so melodious like higher for longer or mag seven, it's usually time to run in the opposite direction. We never once closed above 5 percent. Ten-year treasuries, this is all academic to some extent. Right now, they're pinned at 4 percent. It's why the equity market's multiples are so high. If and as we go lower, which I think what's happening, because it all does point to something sort of recessionary and soft, the odds of – and you yourself, you think they should cut, right? No, I was just making an argument in case they want to.

20:29In case they want to. Okay. I was giving them a little fuel. They say thank you for choosing a side. Look, I think there were good arguments on both sides right now. I'm in the lower yields camp, and I think the action in certain parts of the market reflect that. Got it. All right, coming up, no love for Lilly, why Wall Street is toning down expectations in the obesity market, and where they see the stock heading from here. That's next. Plus, private equity heavyweight Orlando Bravo weighing in on the recent credit concerns, what he told CNBC about the firm's portfolio, and why he's not letting the credit crunch get to him.

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22:29Welcome back to Fast Money. We've got a news alert on regulation for the crypto space. Mackenzie Cigalos has the details. Mackenzie. Hey, Sarah. So the SEC and CFTC have just issued the first real federal framework for classifying crypto assets in the clearest regulatory guidance that this industry has ever gotten from Washington. In a direct break from the SEC era under Gary Gensler, most crypto assets are not themselves securities under these new rules. Now, another big change here. They are saying that a crypto asset can be tied to an investment contract in one context without being a security forever.

23:02That kind of off ramp from a securities classification is new. Atkins was also asked about the possibility of eliminating mandatory quarterly earnings reports. Here's what he had to say. We're going out for comment to see what people say about that. But, you know, I think it probably depends on the company size or type of industry or whatever. I mean, some people have said, I've had CEOs say to me, well, you know, I receive monthly reports from internally, and so maybe I should do a monthly reporting type of thing. I wouldn't necessarily wish that on everyone, and I'm not sure it's, you know, appropriate for every kind of company, but, you know, let's see.

23:43Let's have, I think it's appropriate to ask for comment, you know, at this point in time. But SEC Chair Paul Atkins says he's agnostic on the quarterly reporting regulations and that he looks forward to the comments from the public. Sarah? Okay, Mackenzie, thank you very much. I'm curious here on the desk, who's in favor of getting rid of quarterly reporting requirements?

24:07Dan Nathan:You know what, I can make an argument that, you know what, if you're just, if you're running your company to beat quarterly results, then maybe you're not running it the way you should, and that maybe twice a year might make sense. Like, I can understand the argument around twice a year instead of four times a year. That's kind of what CEOs say. But I don't know why three months is different than six months.

24:27Melissa Lee:I mean, at the end of the day. It's all kind of arbitrary. I mean, at what point would you want to check in? If you have a doctor looking at a patient, maybe every hour. How about your children coming home from school? You want a report card every day, every week, meaning there has to be some frequency. And is it arbitrary quarterly, biannual? How about every three years? That would work, would it? No. So what is the problem with quarterly? Is that just too minuscule? I think you have a point that you don't want to run your business for like feeding numbers. That's up to the company. That's management.

24:54I agree, but I will say I think more information is better generally for investors, for journalists. Right, but the person who did that more than anybody was Jack Welch at GE. They beat by a penny every quarter for like 15 years. If he had to sell the floorboards out from a factory to make that thing, he would do it. I mean, that's just manipulating the quarterly results. We know that. That's up to the management. But there has to be a frequency to report your results in all of life, in all of things. How about a star athlete? What should it be? What's wrong with quarterly?

25:23Melissa Lee:I think it would make this hour a little less interesting. I'll just tell you that. I disagree. What are you talking about? I love the volatility. Lily's down 3%.

25:32Dan Nathan:At least there's a conversation going. You can understand And it's worthy of a conversation, I think, is the point. Well, let's see what they get from the comments. I'll be curious. There's a lot of CEOs have lobbied for this. Well, you know, write it in to the SEC. Comment period is open. Eli Lilly dropping almost 6 % today after HSBC downgrades the stock to reduce from hold and cut its target to 850. Analysts growing concerned over there over the true size of the obesity drug market, saying that Lilly could face greater pricing and competitive threats moving forward. Lilly's shares have now fallen over 13 percent year to date, while its GLP-1 rival, Novo, has lost nearly a quarter of its value.

26:14Guy, do you agree with this call?

26:16Dan Nathan:Actually, I do. Now, I'll remember this like it was yesterday. In December of 2023, Ken Langone, what's that morning show you like? Squawk. Squawk. said that Eli Lilly would be the first trillion-dollar company. And you know what? To the penny, he nailed it. Now it's an$800 billion company, and they have a bit of a problem. It's a valuation problem. And if pricing is going to start to sort of work against them, then the valuation that they enjoy, sometimes two and a half, three times their rivals, suggests that maybe the cushion's not there. So this might be the other side of the Lilly growth story.

26:48Dan Nathan:And I actually think there's a sort of a—I think there's an air pocket below even this current level that we're trading at. Wow. Almost a$900 billion company. Novo's$171 billion. Quite a gap. When we come back, navigating the credit crunch, how billionaire investor Orlando Bravo is riding out the storm here in private credit and why he's not letting the trouble change his strategy. You're watching Fast Money live from the Nasdaq Market Side in Times Square. We're back after a quick break.

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28:09And we trust you to make smart decisions. After all, you listen to this show. See terms at discover.com slash credit card. With Share My Trip from Uber, you can send your live trip location to the ones who matter most. Like Dan and Hannah, who always wait up to make sure their daughter gets back to her college dorm room. Or Tiffany, who's running late as usual, and her friends are tracking her trip to make sure she's actually on her way. Look, she's right there. She's three minutes away. Or Sam, who never goes anywhere without her roommate knowing exactly where she is. Some journeys are meant to be shared.

28:39Share your ride in real time with Share My Trip on Uber. One more way Uber is putting safety at every turn. Learn more on the Uber app. Welcome back to Fast Money. Alternative asset managers, Aries Management and Apollo and Blue Owl getting a boost today. Toma Bravo, CEO Orlando Bravo, pushing back on the heavy criticism that the private credit space has been getting lately. Here's what he told CNBC's Leslie Picker earlier. We integrate how we invest in credit as to how we invest in private equity. That sector expertise is more critical and more important now than it's ever been. And we are so comfortable with our private credit book, given the choices we've made as a specialist in the space.

29:25Dan, what do you make of these comments and today's action, especially from someone like Orlando Bravo, which has one of the biggest private portfolios of software companies?

29:33Melissa Lee:Yeah, and I mean, that's the one. It's not a public company, right? So we're like, see all the commentary around Apollo and KKR and areas. And I mean, the list goes on and on. And they all have way different exposures, you know, so it's hard to kind of lump them all together. But I think the sentiment and the names that were listed was so bad, right? Like, think about it. These stocks have sold off so dramatically in such a short period of time. And there's not a lot of transparency out there right now. It's a bunch of narratives. And we've been talking about it here. So private equity, maybe they have that software problem.

30:01Melissa Lee:Private credit, you know, there's issues there. as it relates to maybe AI infrastructure build and a handful of other sorts of things, really poor direct lending to companies that are not going to be around in a little bit. So, you know, all the unknowns. That's why I want to hear these companies report every three months. And they don't report. I want the transparency. I want to hear what they say on the calls. I want to hear the Q &A, that sort of thing. So I think the stocks were set for a bounce. I mean, if you look at Apollo, it got right back to its April 25 lows after falling off a cliff, and it wasn't going to take much to get that thing going higher.

30:30Yeah, it had a nice move today, 5.25%. But would you still stay away?

30:33Melissa Lee:No, I mean, like, I think you can go with, like, these really high-quality names. I think KKR, I think Apollo, I think Aries, they all fall in that bucket right there. All right, there you go. Coming up, we're watching shares of Lululemon after earnings. Retail expert Dana Telsey is here to dig into the numbers where she sees opportunity in the consumer space, despite kind of a messy macro environment here. Fast Money, back in two. Missed a moment of fast? Catch us anytime on the go. Follow the Fast Money podcast. We're back right after this.

31:10Welcome back to Fast Money. Stocks higher for a second straight day. The Dow up about 50 points. S &P 500 gaining a quarter of a percent on the session. And the Nasdaq jumping nearly half a percent. Shares of Uber and Lyft jumping after NVIDIA announced expansion of its partnerships with both of those rideshare companies. Uber planning to roll out a fleet of robo-taxis powered by NVIDIA chips next year. Airlines also had a good day. Delta, American, JetBlue all raising revenue guidance for the first quarter ahead of a J.P. Morgan industry conference. Delta CEO Ed Bastian telling CNBC that strong demand is offsetting the rising cost of fuel, which has been a headwind.

31:48And some after-hours action. DocuSign higher after topping estimates on the top and bottom lines. Hiking Q1 and full-year revenue guidance. So some good news there. Also after hours, Lulu Lemon shares they're off the lows of the after hours. The athleisure retailer gave giving weaker guidance, but did post better than expected Q4 earnings and revenue. Lulu seeing headwinds from tariffs and this ongoing proxy battle. I did speak today with the interim co-CEO, Megan Frank, ahead of the earnings call. She told me, quote, from the top line in the last quarter, U.S. was better than expected. China was better, too.

32:22But she did say we had a higher penetration of markdowns than we'd like going forward. Really made a point to tell me that embedded in this new guidance and what the goal is for 26 is to bring it back to full price merchandise. Let's bring in retail analyst Dana Telsey, who is fresh off of Lululemon's conference call. She's the Telsey Advisory Group CEO and chief research officer. What's your takeaway from Lulu this afternoon? Overall, I think they delivered what kind of was expected. You look at the stock now, which did gap down, but now it's kind of flattish. You think about the green shoots that they talked about with full price selling improving.

32:55Still no CEO appointment. I think that is going to be the next trajectory to look for and the guidance that they give then. But the fact that you had better full price selling, that the new product that's coming in is being accepted as solid. We need to see what the numbers look like and also what the trajectory is going to be as we go through the year. Because the first quarter, it's a one to three percent increase. They're guiding to a 2 % to 4 % for the year. So you've got to see some improvement from Q1. Yeah, I mean, her point to me was basically we're not waiting for new leadership. We're taking action now and we're implementing the strategy.

33:28And that includes they have this brand new designer, so they have some of his new product hitting this quarter where she said green shoots in terms of performance. But it's still a company that's sort of embroiled in proxy drama, CEO drama, and has really slowed down in its key market in the U.S. You get to$11 billion, it's hard. I have a hold on it right now. I mean, also, I was out there at the end of January, and I met with the whole leadership team, including the new chief creative director, Jonathan Chung. They're going through every core item they have, and how do you update it? How do you make it new?

34:01Give people a reason to buy. I think the other thing you're going to see is enhanced marketing. I think they're going to go the social way in order to try to capture not only more new customers, but capture more from existing customers.

34:14Dan Nathan:Jeff Mackey used to say that specialty retail, that's the little lemon, is where hope goes to die. And when they create a category, they dominate the category, the stock acts in kind, and then competition comes in, margins decrease, and that's what happens. That's the other side of growth, and we're seeing it now. Valuation is compelling, but competition is there. Can you reaccelerate? Because it rarely ever happens. It takes time to reaccelerate. Dick Kane, who's the founder and CEO of Urban Outfitters, always said big is the enemy of cool. So basically being cool again and being able to get these new products.

34:49We have a lot of events, whether it is the World Cup that's coming up. You've got America 250 that they can be a part of. You see that they're now also doing ambassadors of athletes that helps like Francis Tiafoe on the tennis side. And Lewis Hamilton on the F1 side.

35:05Dan Nathan:F1, love F1. So there's things that can continue. I think you have a loyal customer to them because I think the quality of what they have is better. And yes, you have imitators out there, but some are fashion like Aloe. Some are lower price like what you have with Fabletics. Some are going in a different direction like Viore, who's now focused on skiing in a big way in addition to active wear. So reinvigorating is important. And when you think about retail, retail is a roller coaster. You have to remodel, rejuvenate and re-merchandise in order to get back to the top of it.

35:37Melissa Lee:Can Nike be the opposite of big? Can they be cool? Well, I think they have an opportunity to be cool. I mean, you think of some of the new product that's coming in there. I think the market share that they have globally is just so impressive. But also, we're going to need to see that whether it's physical, whether it's digital and product all at the same time, you need to see it all come together. I think they're going to have an investor day coming up in the fall. There's a reason they're having it then. outlook for 2027 on a calendar basis. What's the best opportunity in retail right now? I think you have a bunch of them.

36:10I think you have legacy companies that are improving, like Victoria's Secret, like Agap. I think you've got value, whether it's TJX, Walmart, Costco. Look at every off-pricer. Their comp store sales up high single digits. High single digits in off-price comps, typically they've been 2 % to 4%. They're capturing more dollars from wealthier consumers. I also think you have some of the brand names out there. Chip Berg obviously joining Lulu. Levi's, I mean, you see what's happening. They're outfitting. It's impressive. Yeah. I guess, you know, one question is also just with this rise in gas prices, we're following the risks around Iran.

36:47Does it make you rethink any of the names that have particularly high exposure to people who are sensitive around gas prices? So definitely watch carefully. We just put out a big piece on gas prices on Monday. Around 6 % of consumers' disposable income is spent on energy and gas prices. We look back to the 1970s at the last oil price spikes, the one which impacted consumers the most, 73, 74 with the Arab oil embargo that's out there. You haven't seen such a big headwind yet, but it's definitely what you're watching. And what we're hearing so far, we haven't seen it really impact spending yet. But the focus on value, the Walmarts of the world, they're there.

37:26And you're seeing higher income consumers trade down. So what would it take to get you to upgrade Lulu? because I feel like you're kind of flirting with a positive view here. I think it's more balanced than it was two quarters ago when it was weaker. I think I need to see greater sales acceleration. Could you hit better than that one to three in the first quarter and the second quarter? And then you could have people get attracted to it again. Because what you see with these legacy brands, whether it's Gap, whether it's a Victoria's Secret, they can reinvigorate themselves, and that's an opportunity.

37:58All right, Dana, good to see you. Good to have you here. Glad you got your question in on the early call before you came on Fast Money. Dana Telsey. Guy.

38:06Dan Nathan:A couple things. I want to know, F1 drivers wearing Lululemon, how would you know? So that seems like a wasted opportunity. They have quite a social game. Okay, fair enough. I'm sure you're familiar. I'll say this. Dana's spot on, but I will tell you. What it felt like to me is the full-year guide, they're sandbagging a little bit, which sets up for a decent first quarter, which should surprise people to the upside. So maybe for the first time in a while, Lululemon's worth a look. Carter. I mean, look, these businesses are all very idiosyncratic, But the word disaster has to be applied here. I mean, you're talking about a stock that's down 55%, 60%.

38:37It's the exact opposite of a micron. Analysts have been lowering their price target, responding as the stock goes down, lower, lower, lower. We have one of the great retail analysts of all time, and she has a hold on it. There's a reason for that. Now, you kind of maybe said, are you thinking about it? But it'll take price action. Because she sounded kind of positive, didn't she? That's right. But guess what will really do it? Stock starts moving up, basing and bottoming. Like, all right, maybe a little bit better. It's a show-me matter here. And right now, Lulu's not showing anything other than it just dropped and gapped after earnings.

39:04Maybe it's stable, but at a three, five-year low? No, thanks. Not impressed. All right, coming up, media money. The more-than-eye-popping pay package for Warner Brothers CEO David Zasloff and the tax benefit that could mean hundreds of millions more. Those details when Fast Money returns.

39:28Welcome back to Fast Money. Warner Brothers Discovery CEO David Zasloff could stand to earn almost a billion dollars this year if his company's sale to Paramount Skydance does go through. CNBC's Julia Boorstin with the breakdown. Julia. Well, Sarah, Warner Brothers Discovery disclosing in a filing today that once the company's sale to Paramount closes, CEO David Zaslav could collect as much as$887 million. Now that includes $34 million in cash severance,$517 million in equity, and Zaslav could receive additional payments for tax reimbursement worth as much as$335 million. Though if the deal closes next year, he would not get that tax reimbursement payment.

40:15This mega payday sparking some frustration here in Hollywood, given the layoffs that are expected once this deal closes. Paramount has said it is looking for$6 billion in cost synergies. And historically, David Zaslav has drawn criticism for his high pay packages, including last year when shareholders voted against his$52 million pay package in disapproval of his management of the company, although that vote was non-binding, so more symbolic. Now, between when David Zaslav took the helm of the combined Warner Brothers discovery and when he announced that they would be spinning off their linear networks, the stock had dropped 53 percent.

40:58Sarah? Okay, Julia, Julia Borson, these numbers are - Staggering. Staggering. And especially, you know, when you have these, which it's not as common to have billionaires that are not founders of companies like Steve Ballmer, Jamie Dimon, billion dollars. What do you think?

41:16Dan Nathan:But their board of directors have to approve pay packages. So you can be mad at Mr. Zaslav, but you shouldn't be mad at him. I mean, he's playing by the rules of the game. I mean, boards approve these things. So if you have some consternation or if you're upset about it, then it has to happen at the board level. And they clearly push this through. So, you know, I don't want to spend other people's money and I don't begrudge anybody. It's obviously a staggering number, but it's not him that did it. Well, I think the reason it gets attention is because it's, you know, there have been thousands of layoffs.

41:43100 percent. And it's been a broader cord cutting, kind of shrinking business story. And as you heard, Julia, the shareholder, he definitely managed to sell it, though. And he sold it for what I think people think is a very good price because he had a bidding war.

41:55Melissa Lee:It seems like the divisiveness around this deal, the bidding war, you know, like Hollywood, I don't know where they shook out, who they wanted. They didn't want Netflix. Now they want him to get paid a billion dollars. It just seems like one that no one could win except David Zalzo. Yeah, well, he definitely is a winner. Does he deserve it, Carter? You know, to your point, I mean, if you're the founder, right, you invent the Model T, Ford, or you're Steve Jobs, that's one thing. And you say you're the custodian of this enterprise for a while, and all of a sudden you've got several billion dollars like a Jamie Knight.

42:24But they do create value. Let's talk about the real pay package. How about Musk? Forget about a billion. That's a trillion, right? So who knows? there is always a discussion about the spread in America between the line worker and the C-suite versus other countries where it's not as wide. Media executives in particular, though, have done very well. Yes. When we come back, utilities on the rise. The group, one of the best performing sectors this year, and there could be even more room to run here. What the chart master is seeing in the technicals. That's next when Fast Money returns.

43:03Welcome back to Fast Money. The S &P 500 utilities sector outperforming the broader index by double digits since the start of the year. And the chart master says the group has room to run even further. Carter Worth, what do you see in the technicals? Yeah, that's my hunch. Before we get right to the charts, I mean, obviously, it's a very defensive area, and it's sort of the opposite of the market. Markets under a bit of pressure, and this very defensive area is moving well. But before we look at the charts of the XLU, the ETF, it's important to note, of course, how important yield is. This is going back to literally the dot-com peak, and we see, of course, that utilities, as would be expected, have lagged the market substantially.

43:38The S &P is an orange, utilities sector in blue. But total return, next chart, is a totally different story. If you include dividends, and this is the shocking thing, the total return of the S &P 500 utility sector matches the total return of the S &P. Think about all that work we're all trying to do to figure out the market, and you could have just been in utilities the past 25, 26 years. In any event, let's look at the chart of the XLU. That is the ETF. Now, we had a very bad October, November, December, selling off almost 11 % when the market was flat, but we've recouped that. Let's put some lines in here.

44:13Next chart will be one way to annotate it. So we've returned to the October 16th high, and we're coiling, consolidating. The arrow indicates a judgment. Of course, that's mine. I think we break out. Same chart, a different iteration. just depicts how important this level is. Again, 11 % sell-off, recouping all the losses, and I think an important breakout-type move is at hand. Next iteration, you can also draw the lines this way. You could also put in another cup here and call that an important head and shoulders bottom. Any way you slice it, my hunch is higher for utilities. It's a very small sector, only 2.3%, about the same weighting as a meta, but I think you can have your cake and eat it, too, be long and be defensive at the same time.

44:57Dan Nathan:All right. I'm with Carter Braxton Worth. So NextEra is the largest component of the XLU. That's done extraordinarily well, if you want to pull up a chart. Our crack staff in EC can do that. Then other names like Vistra and Southern Company and those types are in as well. These names have, a lot of them, been parabolic. So I'm with Carter on XLU going higher. Because of the AI and the power trade, right? 100%. Vistra is a name that we never talked about until the last two years for good reason. Look at that stock chart over the last, you know, four or five years, and you can see what he's done in the last one.

45:29NRG up 61 percent. Constellation Energy up 41 percent. So you see more room.

45:35Dan Nathan:I do, yeah. And Carter sees it in the charts. I mean, I'm going with CB Dubs. You don't want to fight the chart master. No, why would you? Thanks, Carter. Up next, your final trades. We'll be right back.

45:55It's time for Final Trades. Let's go around the horn. Carter. Caesars, I think probably the deal gets done, but either way, a bearish to bullish reversal buy. Dan.

46:04Melissa Lee:Yeah, Carter had a great no doubt and description yesterday on the show about meta, about fading it. I'm hidden in his camp. Fading meta. Guy.

46:13Dan Nathan:On a scale of 1 to 10, Sarah Eisen, 10 being I had the best time of my life. 11. Whoa. I love being with you guys. Seriously, I do have fun. 11. I'm always happy to do it. She didn't even hesitate. No. You can catch Sarah Eisen each day, I believe, from 10 to 11. 10 to 12. 10 to 12. My bad. At least Dan watches. He's quoted an interview today. It's called Squawk on the Street and Money Movers. Gap from Dana Telsey. Gap. Sure. All right. There you go. Thank you, guys, for having me. It is always fun. And thanks, everybody, for watching Fast Money. Mad Money starts now. All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet, or another medium.

46:54You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Fast Money Disclaimer, please visit CNBC.com forward slash Fast Money Disclaimer. Snoring? Gasping during sleep? Feeling fatigued? Ask your doctor about ZepBound Terzepatide.

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