Tech Bounces Back… And SpaceX Joins the Nasdaq 100 on Fast Track 7/6/26

6 Jul 2026 · 44 min · 25 chapters

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In short

Market rebound led by semiconductors and mega-cap tech; SpaceX fast-tracked into the Nasdaq 100; guidance and memory demand concerns ahead of earnings; Walmart price cuts and grocery competition; backlash against “token maxing” in AI; gold/energy/crypto and prediction-market updates.

Guests (backgrounds)

Dan Niles, hedge fund manager at Niles Investment Management; former semiconductor and computer hardware analyst during the dot-com bubble. Carter Braxton Worth, “chartmaster” technical analyst on Fast Money. Guy Adami, CNBC market commentator. Contessa Brewer, CNBC reporter covering prediction markets.

Key claims

Tech leadership is returning (SMH +2%, DRAM ETF +~7%); VIX <16 and bonds “deteriorating” are risks. Memory stocks (SK Hynix, Samsung, Micron) may face demand/pricing uncertainty; hyperscalers may guide cautiously as they cut AI compute/token spending. Walmart lowering ground beef ~15% signals political/consumer pressure; refiners (Valero) benefit from crack spreads despite falling crude. Palantir CEO Alex Karp argues tokens “create no value” and “impose a wealth tax,” pushing open-source. Gold is a “mature intermediate decline” with a technical bounce setup.

Notable examples

SK Hynix and Samsung earnings; SpaceX added to Nasdaq 100; Walmart/Sam’s Club price cuts (ground beef, soda, Lays); Palantir vs OpenAI/Anthropic token debate; Coinbase cutting AI spend ~50% (cited); Samsung/Hynix listing in the US; Valero record close; Bitcoin strategy sold $216M of BTC.

Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.

Chapters

Tap a time to open that second in VO

Tech's Market Resurgence

1:35 to 2:26

Explore the recent rise in tech stocks and its implications.

“Come to you live from Studio B at the Nasdaq.”

Market Analysis Ahead of Earnings

2:26 to 3:10

Panelists discuss market conditions leading into earnings season.

“So is this proof of tech undergoing a factory reset?”

Sector Performance and Memory Market

3:10 to 4:36

Debate on memory stocks and the broader tech sector performance.

“But that's a powder keg waiting to happen.”

Caution in Tech Investments

4:36 to 6:20

Panelists express caution regarding investments in tech due to market volatility.

“Like there's nothing right now that feels like it's going to derail it.”

Hyperscalers and Market Dynamics

6:20 to 9:14

Discussion on hyperscaler companies and their impact on the market.

“Seasonality works for July, works for August.”

Apple's Unique Position

9:14 to 11:30

Analyze Apple's current market position and prospects.

“So you have all these frenemy situations, right?”

Walmart's Price Reductions

11:30 to 13:20

News on Walmart lowering prices and its implications for consumers.

“People trying to get ahead of an earnings release.”

Reflections on Market Dynamics

13:20 to 14:00

Panelists reflect on broader market implications of price changes.

“And maybe that goes to this price war, especially when it comes to grocery items in the sector, whether it be with Target or with other grocery chains like Kroger, for instance.”

Walmart's Market Position and Political Capital

14:00 to 16:53

Analyzing Walmart's strategy amidst market challenges and consumer behavior.

“And so I don't mean to be kind of glib about it.”

Insights from Dan Niles on Technology Stocks

16:53 to 19:25

Dan Niles discusses market trends and the impact of earnings season on tech stocks.

“Let's turn back to the moves in big tech.”
Show all 25 chapters

The Competitive Landscape in AI and Memory Chips

19:25 to 23:17

Exploring competition among tech giants in AI and the implications for investors.

“And, you know, when I look at what's going on in memory and I think about in market cap terms and how much these stocks are up and where, let's say, the Nasdaq or Korea's, you know, index is the cost fee is.”

Closing Remarks with Dan Niles

24:10 to 24:34

Wrapping up insights from Dan Niles before transitioning to market updates.

“If I'm grilling, chilling, and watching hoops, my outdoor patio setup better be ready to play.”

Closing Remarks with Dan Niles

24:40 to 25:10

Wrapping up insights from Dan Niles before transitioning to market updates.

“Burlington knows you cannot forget Mother's Day.”

Valero's Performance Amidst Crude Price Fluctuations

25:10 to 27:45

Understanding Valero's strong performance in energy amidst crude price declines.

“Shares of Valero Energy closing at a record, rising a percent today, bringing its gains for the year to over 66 percent.”

Upcoming Topics and Market Trends

27:45 to 28:00

Previewing future discussions on rising backlash in tech and precious metals.

“So-and-so is a big fan of the show, but this is actually something that's true.”

Tech Trade Fallout and Gold Predictions

28:00 to 28:24

Discussion on the impacts of recent tech trade fallout and gold price predictions.

“and how the fallout could boost another part of the tech trade.”

Palantir's Critique of AI Token Models

28:50 to 30:24

Analysis of Palantir CEO Alex Karp's criticism of AI token costs and models.

“Thursday, July 16th, CNBC Sport and Boardroom join Fanatics Fest for Game Plan.”

Stock Analysis of Palantir and Market Trends

30:24 to 32:22

In-depth discussion on Palantir's stock movements and future predictions.

“Seema Modi, I think this is interesting, especially as there are reports that Microsoft could use DeepSeq or a version of DeepSeq to power its co-pilot co-work.”

Gold Price Trends with Chartmaster

32:22 to 32:46

Chartmaster discusses the technical aspects affecting gold prices.

“If you compare the two charts, go to Snowflake, two totally different stories.”

Investing in Gold and GDX Trends

32:46 to 36:28

Exploration of gold investment strategies and GDX performance.

“Starting the week in the green, the Dow jumping 156 points, closing at a fresh record and above 53 ,000 for the first time.”

World Cup Wagering and Market Dynamics

36:28 to 40:08

Discussion on World Cup betting trends and its impact on different markets.

“Agnico Eagle AM, the biggest or one of the biggest, Newmont, or just do, of course, GDX.”

Bitcoin Market Analysis

40:08 to 42:01

Analysis of Bitcoin's market reactions related to recent news and strategies.

“I think you're going to see at some point the roles reverse here.”

Bitcoin's Volatility and Market Sentiment

42:01 to 44:40

Explore the effects of political commentary on Bitcoin's market behavior.

“Bitcoin rebounding from early losses after President Trump said he's become a, quote, big crypto guy.”

Tribute to Tim Seymour's Father

44:41 to 45:29

A heartfelt tribute to the father of a beloved Fast Money participant.

“Over the holiday weekend, we lost a longtime Fast Money fan, maybe one of its greatest fans.”

Final Trades and Market Insights

45:30 to 46:11

The hosts share their final trades and insights into various investments.

“Baxter, classic value play, was 95, hit a low of 16, now a textbook bearish to bullish reversal.”
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Transcript

Automatic transcript. May contain errors.

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1:28Tim Seymour:Michael Saylor's firm making another move away from Bitcoin while he's changing course and what it means for the crypto's next leg. I'm Melissa Lee. Come to you live from Studio B at the Nasdaq. On the desk tonight, Steve Grasso, Dan Nathan, Guy Adami and Carter Braxton Worth. We start off with tech getting back in the driver's seat with the Nasdaq rising more than a percent to start the week and leaving the major averages higher. Much of today's strength coming from the rebound in semis. After notching two straight weeks in the red, the SMH added 2 percent, while memory makers, as measured by the DRAM ETF, surged nearly 7 percent.

1:59Tim Seymour:Elsewhere in tech, one member of the so-called MAG-7 quietly approaching record levels. Apple putting in a fourth straight day of gains, now trading within a percent of the closing high it hit on June 2. All this as recent rotation winners sit on the sidelines, health care utilities, consumer staples, each losing roughly 1 percent. Another indication that tech's retaking its leadership, mega caps helping the market cap weighted S &P 500 to far up pace the equal weighted index today. So is this proof of tech undergoing a factory reset? And can the AI trade keep propelling broader markets to fresh highs?

2:34Tim Seymour:Look who's back, Mr. Guy Adami. I missed you.

2:36Melissa Lee:We haven't seen each other in a while.

2:38Tim Seymour:In a long time. Two weeks. Then you're away. So much to catch up on. We'll do it offline.

2:44Melissa Lee:It's great to be back. You get a week away and you get to sort of clear your head and met a lot of people over the week talking about the technology trade. And here we are now in the second half of the year in July. And that's when you start to see the chase. I mean, Steve can speak to this, but I think in a large part that's what's going on. So in the absence of bad news ahead of earnings, you're going to get this sort of reinvigoration, I guess, if that's a word, back into this trade. So that part makes sense. What doesn't make sense to me is a VIX that's now below 16 and a bond market that I think continues to deteriorate.

3:16Melissa Lee:Forget about Japan. We'll talk about that later, maybe. But that's a powder keg waiting to happen. But right now, in terms of the broader market, again, all systems go.

3:24Tim Seymour:Yeah, I mean, on the precipice of earnings season, by the way.

3:27Melissa Lee:Yeah, and so the S &P down about 1 % from its all-time highs, NASDAQ down a little bit more. But, you know, we know where that performance has been coming from. It's been those large mega cap names, despite the MAG-7 not trading particularly well over the last couple of months. You know, when I think about what could derail things and if you think about, you know, we had utilities, we had staples, we had, you know, pharma and stuff not acting well. I think that's what you were alluding to at the top of the show. But, you know, this week we have SK Hynix. They're at least a third of the memory market.

3:54Melissa Lee:That's DRAM and high bandwidth memory. We know what's happened to pricing there. We know what's happened to demand versus the capacity that is limited right now. And you say to yourself, OK, SK and Hynix come in public here in the U.S. And what could go wrong? Well, maybe there's just not a lot of demand for it. Maybe some of the reason that these stocks have been trading that way is because of scarcity. If they're going to bring a$28 billion deal, and we know this, we just saw big deals out of SpaceX and the like, and it had a one-day pop. But at some point, it's just not that interesting if everybody's already involved.

4:23Melissa Lee:And you have global investors that are in the local Korean sort of, you know, I guess the Korean issue. So what could go wrong? The unhealthy price action in that group of stocks. As far as everything else is concerned, it's fine. You know, like, you know, Guy's point. Like there's nothing right now that feels like it's going to derail it. We have a 10 year right around four and a half. And no one seems to care, even with these rate increases built in for the balance of the year. So earnings better come in. I know that expectations after Q1, I think we're up more than 23 percent year over year.

4:55Melissa Lee:I know that that's probably not in the cards right now. But if it's good enough, then the S &P kind of holds in here for a bit. I think earnings will be good enough. I think it's the guidance that people will worry about. If you think about it, money managers manage money. They have to put money to work. They have to always be managing money. So when you sit here and you look at where the sell-offs can happen, they happen in between the print and the next earnings release. Those are the times when the stock is susceptible to actually pull back. So when people are looking for the return on invested capital, that's a problem because I don't think you're going to see it to the extent that we've seen it before.

5:33So you're going to question every dollar. Dollar goes out. Dollar's got to come back in. And is it fractions of a dollar that's coming back in? So I think the people who haven't spent the money, those are the ones that are going to reap the benefits, the apples of the world. Memory at peak. For me, you can't be buying memory at 80 percent multiples margins right now. This is not the time to be buying these certain handful of stocks where you're going to get the bargains. I think people are going to wait for earnings. If they see earnings sort of disappoint in some way, shape or form, I think the problem is they're going to rush right back into those MAG 7 names again.

6:17And that's going to be a detriment to the investor community. So I think just sit on your hands. Seasonality works for July, works for August. September's a bad month for stocks. So just sit on your hands a little bit. SpaceX took a lot of air out of the balloon. The war is hopefully ending a lot of risk capital.

6:38Tim Seymour:I guess one question is, was the rotation that we saw last week, Carter, you know, when we saw health care on a streak, we saw some of the other sectors come to life. Was that the aberration or is that the pattern that has been established now and this tech resurgence today sort of just is a deviation? Well, I mean, it's both ways, depending on where you want to start the narrative, right, to start the storyline. Let's take within health care, for instance, since obviously it's a lot bigger and more important than let's take staples or utilities. I mean, biotech has been fantastic, yes, and there's something to say about idiosyncratic strength within a sector that's been defensive.

7:18But, I mean, today is yet another day where it's kind of a 50-50. You know, the advance declined, 220 issues advancing in the S &P, 280 declining. And it's ever thus. I mean, think how popular software was, and then it's not. Think about precious metals, and then it's not. Think about oil, and then it's not. And the whole sort of where the center of the storm is the SK Hynix. It's the Western Digital. Each of those, it's Qualcomm. They've all had 30-plus percent sell-offs in a matter of days over the past week or so. And so does that mean that that's the beginning of a 50 % sell-off? I mean, or is it just another corrective moment that then sets up yet new highs?

7:59I think the important conclusion to make here is that being as overweight or as large in that space as one might have been over the past 6, 12, 18 months is probably ill-advised.

8:11Tim Seymour:So where within technology, I mean, I've heard in recent days rotation within technology to, say, the hyperscalers. Would you buy that?

8:20Melissa Lee:You can make a pretty cogent argument. If Google's the name you're talking about, I mean, that's the one. I mean, that to me is the one that stands out. Stock's been up and down. I think valuation is still compelling. Clearly, the moat that everybody thought might not exist still exists in terms of their search business. So, yeah, I think you can make a pretty good argument for Google in earnings. I'm looking to see one of the reports. JP Morgan's next Tuesday. So you'll probably have Google within the next two, two and a half weeks. Yeah, there's a problem, though, right now for the hyperscalers is that announcements that come out, they can either be taken as positive or negative.

8:51Melissa Lee:If it's like a cut in CapEx, you tell me, is that going to be good or bad, right? I mean, like, so but think about this. So Meta's announcement last week that they're basically going to sell excess compute. Wait, there's excess compute? I didn't know. I didn't know there's excess compute. And that's why they're a huge customer of a core weave, you know, some of these neoclouds, because they're the ones who actually build out the commute and they sell it to the hyperscalers, right? So to me, like that is a kind of difficult scenario. So you have all these frenemy situations, right? And at some point, the news is just going to be straight bad for all of them, right?

9:21Melissa Lee:Like it's just going to be that simple. And you could say, well, these memory names, they just basically have two, three-year plans to build out fabs and build out this capacity. They have these long-term contracts. Well, at some point, maybe the push out of these data sets, there's all sorts of little things in And you know what I mean? Like these guys are going to be able to get out of a lot of these orders. So to me, I guess the point is, is that it can start to cascade. It can only take a couple of announcements from some of the big hyperscalers to see the whole space sort of pull back. And another name that we've been focused on now for a year and a half has been Oracle.

9:52Melissa Lee:This was a Johnny come lately to the hyperscaler space. OpenAI gave them this massive contract. What does that mean? That means everything down the stack is getting purchased by an all new customer. What is the stock telling you? And maybe they can push that back like two years. I mean, this stock rallied nearly 100 % off those recent lows, and now it's given it all back. So this is an example of a name that actually might have reverberations if they were to kind of stumble a little bit. And there's no reason to believe that this company, based on the execution over the last 10 years, is not likely to stumble.

10:23The only thing I would be a buyer of, honestly, is Apple. And it's for everything that Dan said, everything that we talk about on this desk. They've wasted so much money, or I should say they've overspent money. It's been a circular spending. You have to spend this money because you don't want to fall behind to your competitors. So if you're not falling behind, are you falling behind to yourself? Apple doesn't suffer from that. Apple's the only one I think is holding the cards for itself. I'd be a buyer of Apple. That's it.

10:53Tim Seymour:We have seen a couple of nice sessions for Apple here. Very good. Is that people saying, you know what? they're going to solve this memory problem. They'll maybe get Chinese chips or be able to use that as a leverage against some of the other memory makers. And by the way, they're not spending as much. And so their free cash flow, whatever they're making, they're not spending.

11:11Melissa Lee:I think Steve touched on it. I think, you know, they were being penalized for not being in the AI game, being behind the eight ball. Now the market's saying, wait a second, maybe not spending and sort of waiting for this whole thing to sort of shake out is the right way to be. And I think to a certain extent, that's what we're seeing. You're also probably seeing money flows second half of the year into Apple. I mean, we've seen that historically. So that makes sense. People trying to get ahead of an earnings release. So it all makes sense. I will say, though, at these levels, Apple is certainly not cheap.

11:39All right.

11:39Tim Seymour:We have got a news alert here. President Trump making some comments about Walmart. Megan Cassell's got the details here. Megan. Melissa, President Trump posting on Truth Social just a short time ago, saying that Walmart will be lowering prices on ground beef and some other consumer food products in response to his administration's request. Here are some of the president's true social posts. He says, great news. I've just been informed that one of the biggest, best and smartest retailers in America, Walmart will be lowering prices by a lot at my administration's request to celebrate our great country's 250th birthday.

12:12He says Walmart will in particular be dropping the price for a pound of ground beef by almost 15 percent among many other products. He goes on to say towards the end of this long post that just as he promised, he says oil prices are plummeting fast. Gas prices at the pump are dropping too, just like egg and prescription drug prices. He says Walmart is stepping up in a big and bold way and other retailers should follow the lead of these absolute patriots. And Melissa, just in the last few moments, Walmart appearing to confirm this news, putting out a press release saying that Walmart and Sam's Club lower prices to help customers make the most of summer.

12:45Items like ground beef, sodas, Lays chips, all on the list of things that will be reduced. Now, a couple of things to emphasize here. This does reflect the White House concerned about consumer prices, keeping an eye on how these are impacting consumers. The president saying in this post that he's lowering prices in a way that the former administration could not do. We've already seen him pressure oil companies for one. Now we're seeing him call on retailers to follow suit. Melissa.

13:10Tim Seymour:Megan, thank you, Megan Casella. I'm just reading through this press release. There's no mention of the Trump administration or a Trump administration request to do so. But the fact of the matter is that Walmart is lowering prices. That is good for the U.S. consumer. And maybe that goes to this price war, especially when it comes to grocery items in the sector, whether it be with Target or with other grocery chains like Kroger, for instance.

13:31Melissa Lee:Yeah, and this is an area that's been really difficult, right, for the last six months or so. And we know that Kroger came out, I think, about a quarter ago and said they're going to lower their prices. They're going to compete better with Walmart. It's one thing if you're lowering your prices because you want to keep market share and you want to make sure your customers keep coming back. I mean, this sounds a lot like democratic socialism. I know that's something that the administration has not been too hot about. But we keep seeing this again and again. And then we see the kind of state capitalism with the investments into a lot of these companies.

13:58Melissa Lee:And you know what? They're working out. And this is working out for consumers. And so I don't mean to be kind of glib about it. But at some point, it's going to be a little bit of a treacherous sort of situation for, let's say, our free markets or capitalism in general. And you said, yeah. But, you know, the other thing is, is like, you know, you got this guy. He's like a stock promoter online. He's telling you to buy a stock for no fundamental reason other than the guy who started the company, whose name is on the door, standing behind him at the White House. You know what I mean? So, again, I just think that, yes, this is a situation where it's good for everybody.

14:30Melissa Lee:But at the end of the day, this is really coming at, I think, the core of the way our markets are meant to work.

14:35Tim Seymour:You were talking about Dell and Michael Dell, of course, at the event today and the other event announcing Trump accounts initially. We did see Kroger shares move lower in the after-hours session pretty distinctly, down by one to three-quarters of a percent. Maybe this is just coincidental. It's a win for Walmart in that it is a bid by the part of Walmart to maintain and grow share at a time when consumers are feeling distressed. And also it's a time to win some political capital, which does not hurt Walmart shareholders.

15:06Melissa Lee:No, it doesn't. And so the line in the sand now is today, what is it, July 6th, this comes out. Walmart down significantly off the all-time high, below the 200-day moving average for the first time in a while. Is this the day we come back to and say, OK, Walmart sort of did what they needed to do, and now you're going to start to get a rebound in the stock? I think the answer is yes. And we can debate whether or not this is a good thing or a bad thing. That's not what I'm here to do. What I will say, though, is Walmart, although expensive, this might be sort of that line of demarcation. Why would it be good for the stock?

15:35Melissa Lee:I mean, this just means they're going to have lower margins, right? And so you have to assume that Walmart did not lose a lot of market share. Here's my pushback and say it's just a matter of time before the administration champions Walmart as a stock on the back of this acknowledgement that price is provided. And you don't know if the supplier actually eats that side of it as well. So there's going to be Walmart is the biggest retailer in the country. Walmart very rarely eats that price.

16:01Tim Seymour:Yeah. And I get your point about is it good for the stock. If I said it was good for the stock, I didn't necessarily. I meant political capital for Walmart, the company, which I think is a valuable thing in this world that we live in, in general. And there's a difference between telling someone to lower your prices and asking someone to lower your prices. So we asked them, and this seems like it worked out. Carter, before we leave Walmart here, what does the chart look like? It's the definition of a long and protracted advance that now is showing all the signs of having come to an end, meaning the recent price-finding correlation is bearish, the uptrends in question, you have some dropping and gapping, and it's not, it would appear idiosyncratic.

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16:41Kroger also under pressure, Costco under pressure. So whether it's just a defensive kind of thing, but yet Koch is also same sector and is making new highs. So I think it is idiosyncratic. I would be short these names.

16:52Tim Seymour:All right. Let's turn back to the moves in big tech. Let's bring in hedge fund manager Dan Niles of Niles Investment Management. Dan was a semiconductor and computer hardware analyst during the dot-com bubble. Very famous one, in fact. Dan, great to have you with us. Great to be on, Melissa. You do point out that there is a seasonality impact here, at least through the beginning part of July. But what are you anticipating as we go into earnings season? Do you expect that, you know, memory could come under pressure, that maybe hyperscalers could resume some sort of an uptrend? So a couple of things.

17:27We're probably going to get a pretty good hint tomorrow because Samsung is going to report tonight. And they're obviously one of the big three. It's Samsung, Hynex, and Micron. And their profits should be up almost 18x year over year when they report. And so we'll see how the market responds to that tomorrow, because the Korean stock market, it's up 90 % year to date. And that's being driven by Samsung and Hynex, which are roughly half of that index. And so that's going to give you your first kind of read into this. The second one is SK Hynix goes out with a massive IPO or listing in the US, I should say, not IPO on Friday.

18:05And so that'll give you another data point of now you don't just have to own Micron, you can actually own Hynix as well. And so that's going to give you one more. And then along with SpaceX, you know, how does that react to being finally, this is the last ad for a while being added to the NASDAQ 100. If you're asking longer term, I just go back to one simple thing. You've gone from token been maxing in March to now people trying to control their AI bills. And there's a great post by Brian Armstrong, CEO of Coinbase, where then this was, I think, June 26th or so. And he puts out this post showing how token usage of Coinbase continues to go up, but he's cut his AI spend by almost 50%, 5-0.

18:50And a lot of companies are going through this, and that includes Meta, Microsoft, Uber, etc., where they're trying to get their AI bills under control. So I'm wondering which of the three big hyperscalers ends up guiding below forecasts for September after reporting a huge June because of that. So when they start to report, that's when I'm going to go back to being pretty cautious on the guidance.

19:16Melissa Lee:Hey, Dan, Mel just called you a famous Internet analyst in the dot-com boom. I was there. You were famous, bud. But, you know, you made some big calls. You put your neck out there. And, you know, when I look at what's going on in memory and I think about in market cap terms and how much these stocks are up and where, let's say, the Nasdaq or Korea's, you know, index is the cost fee is. And I say to myself, well, NVIDIA is a greater market cap than probably the top 10 names combined in the memory space. And you look at this sort of price action. It is driving a lot of sentiment as far as tech investors are concerned.

19:48Melissa Lee:Does that trouble you that you're seeing a pocket of these names globally, okay, relative to some of the names here in the U.S. that are actually, like, they're really driving the train? And I'm just curious. Does that make sense to you? And I'm just curious how you're thinking about that. Well, I look at NVIDIA and I go, they're under assault from a bunch of different areas, right? You've got Google, Amazon, Meta. You had an announcement that Anthropics looking at Samsung to produce their own chip. And so they're getting pushed around by all of that news flow. Also, don't forget the big one. With Agentec AI, which you could argue showed up in January with the formalization of OpenClaw on January 30th, you move from eight GPUs to one CPU to something closer to four-to-one or one-to-one, which really benefits the legacy microprocessor vendors who were sort of left for dead up until very recently when that ratio switched back.

20:44So I think it's, to your point, I think it's very company specific where you kind of have to go through the names one by one and go, okay, these guys benefit in this regime shift. These guys don't. And the one thing with memory, don't forget, is that this new architecture coming out and Gentic, Vera Rubin takes at a minimum like three and a half times more memory than the Blackwell generation did. Now, that's just started to ramp. Obviously, there's talk about that getting pushed back. And so those are all things I'm watching right now. And this is not a sell-off. I mean, if you go back to 1995 or 97, you had 50 % drawdowns in the socks.

21:29And it finished that whole climb from the end of 94 to March up 850%. You look more recently, I think at the beginning of or middle of 2025, the semiconductor index went down 40 percent, 4-0 in a drawdown. So this is minor. That's why I'm very curious to see how Samsung and the memory stocks trade tomorrow after Samsung reports tonight and then Hynex on Friday. What does that do to the space?

21:57Melissa Lee:Real quick, Dan, you know, Steve mentioned return on invested capital. When do the companies, listen, we know what's going on with Mike Reynolds, other companies, but the companies that are spending the lion's share, when do they need to start to show that return before people, the market starts to get concerned? I think that's every quarter. It's a great comment, Steve. And that's why I kind of go back to what happens if Google, Amazon, Microsoft, they guide to less than expected growth for the September quarter. They're going to all have huge June numbers because that was token maximization.

22:30Now you've got Coinbase trying to cut their bill in half. That's a very different environment. And so I think your point is the one that everybody's trying to get their arms around. And don't forget, you've now got one competitor that's been added to this, which is SpaceX, right? Don't forget, they signed a$11 billion deal with Google, a$16 billion deal with Anthropic, a$4 billion deal with Cursor. You could argue those are, you know, all deals that could have, reflection AI, let's not forget that one, that could have gone to other players potentially. And then obviously you have meta compute coming out at some point.

23:07That won't affect demand near term. But it's something you have to think about when you're, to your point, looking at return on invested capital, which is ultimately the thing that matters along with cash flow.

23:17Tim Seymour:Dan, always great to speak with you. Thank you. Thank you. Dan Niles. Coming up, high energy trading. Shares of Valero trading your records. Now that's how that stock is bucking the trend of crumbling crude prices next. Plus the toll of token maxing, the growing backlash over climbing costs, and how it could be fueling the recent software surge. Don't go anywhere fast when he's back in two.

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25:10Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. Shares of Valero Energy closing at a record, rising a percent today, bringing its gains for the year to over 66 percent. It is the energy sector's best performing stock in that time frame. The move coming even as crude continues its recent slide, WTI down nearly 25 percent over the past month, settling at its lowest close since the Iran war started. What's your take on the slide? Yes. So when you look at a refiner, a refiner always makes bigger chunks of cash on the crack spread. What their cost of a product that they have coming in, barrel of oil, and then the refined product going out.

25:45Biggest spread is the refined products, sticky in price. The price of oil very, very easily can go up and down very, very quickly. Large integrated names are priced on the barrel of oil. Refiners priced on the crack spread. If you're going to invest in energy, refiners are the place to do it, and it's a very direct play. Valero is probably the cleanest way to play this.

26:09Melissa Lee:There are other names as well. Valero, Steve's talked about for sure. Marathon Petroleum, MPC, that's right around an all-time high. So these downstream plays continue to work. So what we have said, I think, pretty consistently, crude can do what it wants to do, but there's certain names that are going to win in this environment. Those are a couple of them.

26:25Tim Seymour:Do the refiners look good in your book, Carter? Well, I mean, again, they're the equal and opposite of the big integrates and the cyclical names, the drillers. So Phillips 66, PSX, Valero, good versus the others. But here's the question. Are they bad? Are they so bad, they're good. And I think we've reached that point. Again, just think how adored and loved and admired the energy stocks were as recently as May. There were reports printed on letterheads of major investment banks and brokerage firms that, one, if we don't clear this up by May or July, oil's going at 200, 170. And now, of course, it's all been abandoned.

27:04I think you take the road less traveled here, hold one's nose and buy into the sell-off in the big integrated and other energy-related stocks.

27:12Tim Seymour:I love it when Carter says so bad it's good. All the Carterisms. It makes you think.

27:19Melissa Lee:Well, every time Carter speaks, I think. By the way, did you mention last week on the 4th of July, which was Saturday, Carter, what's his middle name?

27:27Tim Seymour:Braxton.

27:28Melissa Lee:Well, there was a gentleman named Carter Braxton, one of the 56 signatories.

27:32Tim Seymour:What are the odds?

27:33Melissa Lee:On the Declaration of Independence.

27:35Tim Seymour:I know. It's amazing. It is amazing. And this is true. No, I'm not. Yes, it's true. Guy says lots of things like fun facts and may or may not. So-and-so is a big fan of the show, but this is actually something that's true. This is actually true. There's a lot more Fast Money to come. Here's what's coming up next. Rising backlash against token maxing. Why CEOs are sounding off on the increasing costs and how the fallout could boost another part of the tech trade. Plus, precious metal technicals, where the chart master sees gold heading next. and when prices could get back to record highs. You're watching Fast Money, live from the NASDAQ market side in Times Square.

28:16We're back right after this.

28:24It's smart to always have a few financial goals. And a really smart one you can set? Earning cash back on what you buy every day. And with Discover, you can. Get this. Discover automatically matches all the cash back you've earned at the end of your first year. Seriously, all of it. And we trust you to make smart decisions. After all, you listen to this show. See terms at discover.com slash credit card. Thursday, July 16th, CNBC Sport and Boardroom join Fanatics Fest for Game Plan. Groundbreaking ideas shaping the future of sports and entertainment. Request your invite at cnbcevents.com slash game plan.

29:07Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. Palantir CEO Alex Karp calling out OpenAI and Anthropic in an interview on CNBC last week, criticizing their token models as costs around AI continue to rise. This as several companies seek to pivot to cheaper open source models. CNBC's Seema Modi's got more. Hey, Seema. Well, it was a pretty big interview, Melissa, with Alex Karp last week. And yes, it sparked a heated debate around the cost of tokens that he says, quote, created no value going as far as to say tokens impose a wealth tax on companies. He also criticized the Big AI Lab's closed source models, saying they can essentially steal proprietary information and replicate businesses.

29:46Union Square Ventures partner Michael Magnano says Karp's comments adds even more fuel to the transition to an open source model that enables enterprises to both save money and control their own destiny.

29:59Tim Seymour:Altimeter Capitals' Brad Gerstner this morning reiterating the urgent need for an American-built open-source alternative, especially as China narrows the gap. The challenge, of course, is open-source gives companies the ability to build their own model and protect their data, yes, but it also means companies have to own the entire stack, including security. That seems to be the big concern, Melissa. All right, Seema, thank you. Seema Modi, I think this is interesting, especially as there are reports that Microsoft could use DeepSeq or a version of DeepSeq to power its co-pilot co-work.

30:33Melissa Lee:Yeah, I mean, the co-pilot one is interesting. I mean, it's very different than what the AIP that Palantir offers, right? When you think about it, I mean, co-pilot is really to kind of help your, you know, your workflows and that sort of thing. When it comes to Palantir, the idea, the argument that they need an intermediary in some way, shape or form between the enterprise and then, let's say, the model maker for all the reasons that SEMA just mentioned, that makes sense. And, you know, when you talk about open source, you know, Jensen Wang had an opinion on this, if that surprises you guys, earlier this year.

31:03Melissa Lee:He said it's not going to be like one or the other. It's going to be both. And they're all going to do like sorts of different things. And I think the whole idea of token maxing really does play a big role in this. So at the end of the day, this is not going to be settled anytime soon. Meta is building an open source model. It doesn't seem to be getting a lot of steam, although they use it internally. It will be interesting to see what these huge platforms end up using for what purposes. Since we brought Palantir, let's talk about Palantir. I mean, if you remember back in February 25, the stock was a straight line higher.

31:33Melissa Lee:They could trade it at 115 or so, and a month and a half later, it was trading back down to$75. I mention that because we just traded down to that prior all-time high, almost in a straight line down 50 percent and seemingly have held. So they don't report until I think August 10th or something like that. But Palantir, if you're so inclined, understanding valuations don't make sense. The sell-off might have been enough.

31:54Tim Seymour:Nice chart work there. Let's see what the chart master says. Well, the charts are open to all. But just as guys characterize it, this is a long and protracted decline. I mean, the stock peaked above 200 in November and touching a low about 105 or thereabouts just last week. That's a major give back that resets the table. I would say those lows are good lows and I would be playing on the long side. If you compare the two charts, go to Snowflake, two totally different stories. Compare Snowflake to Palantir. And if you go back a couple of months, I think Palantir could have the same spike that Snowflake did.

32:36So watch that stock.

32:37Tim Seymour:Coming up, heavy metal technicals with the Chartmaster sees in store for gold prices as the safe haven trade tries to turn around a rough couple months. We are going to be penny when Fast Money returns. Missed a moment of fast? Catch us anytime on the go. Follow the Fast Money podcast. We're back right after this.

33:05Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money Stock. Starting the week in the green, the Dow jumping 156 points, closing at a fresh record and above 53 ,000 for the first time. The S &P up by three quarters of a percent and the Nasdaq leading the gains climbing more than a percent. SpaceX with a small loss today, closing above$160 a share. The stock officially being added to the Nasdaq 100 at today's close after being fast-tracked into the index. Mutual funds and ETFs, including the Triple Qs, will have to buy SpaceX stock to mirror the index's composition. Shares of Rivian dropping after hours. The EV maker filing to sell up to 75 million shares of Class A common stock.

33:41Tim Seymour:Meantime, is gold starting to shimmer again? The precious metal up more than 3 percent in the last week, but it's still down 20 percent since the start of the Iran war. So where does it go next? Who better to ask than the chartmaster Carter Braxton Awards? Carter, what do you see? Myers here. gold down 30 % from its peak, just as oil is. And at this point, I would characterize a mature intermediate decline. Let's go right to the charts. So the peak is Jan 29th, 5 ,600 ounce. And then five months later, we touched a low at the end of the quarter, June 30, below 4 ,000. Let's annotate this. So second chart, you can see well-defined trend lines.

34:19And we've responded to this uptrend line beautifully in a period where gold essentially tripled from 2 ,000 to almost 6 ,000 ounce. And so just to make that point, the next iteration, you'll see that we have responded to the penny. We have bounced off that uptrend line beautifully. And we are sitting here in the converging trend lines apex. So whether you want to call it a symmetrical triangle, a flag, a wedge, it doesn't matter. It represents a period of equilibrium. Which way is it resolved? Many are betting down. I think you bet up. Final chart, that arrow is a judgment. The final arrow, Others might put a red arrow.

34:54But again, it is a mature intermediate decline. Five months in the making, 30 percent duration, magnitude. And we're buyers here.

35:04Tim Seymour:How much of this has to do with the recent weakening we've seen in the dollar, Carter? Well, you wonder. I mean, again, the dollar over the last five years had a lot of zigs and zags and gold was doing its own thing. Right. So sometimes there is a relationship between currency and commodity, and sometimes not. I think this extreme move to the upside was on its own, of course, when we blew off up to 5 ,600. The 30 % sell-off is on its own, and this day-to-day action is more technical than anything else and not much to do with the dollar. All right.

35:38Melissa Lee:Guy, what do you think? Agreed. Hawkish Fed doesn't help. I'll say I mentioned Japan earlier. I mean, the yen, dollar-yen north of 162, probably the highest level we've seen in quite some time. You couple that with the fact that their bond market continues to deteriorate. I think all roads lead to gold. And if you look at GDX quickly, we traded down to the November lows, 71.5, 72. We're bouncing. I think you want to be long gold or GDX or both, but I think Carter is spot on. Yeah, GDX usually outperforms up and down 3 to 1 the GLD. And if you see the performance, it mirrors that. So if you think there's going to be a bounce, you should be buying the miners.

36:13Tim Seymour:Is that a correct call, Carter? GDX versus gold? No, I like them both. I think you're going to get a bounce in the underlying commodity, and you'll get some beta, of course, which you do with the operating companies. Agnico Eagle AM, the biggest or one of the biggest, Newmont, or just do, of course, GDX. Coming up, World Cup wagering. Prediction markets getting a big boost as bettors take the field, the staggering numbers and the surge, and who fans are putting their money on now. More Fast Money in, too.

36:52Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. We are just hours away from kickoff in Team USA's round of 16 World Cup match against Belgium. According to Calci, odds of the Americans winning spiked notably on Sunday after a red card reversal allowed its top scorer to play tonight. It's just one example of the flurry of prediction market activity during this World Cup. Contessa Brewer is here with the details. Contessa. World Cup has become like a soap opera. This is as the world turns. Kalshi has just posted its most lucrative market ever. Who will win the finals of the World Cup has now surpassed a billion dollars in trading volume.

37:28And Kalshi, with whom CNBC has a commercial relationship, did more than five billion bucks in trading volume this weekend, setting new records fueled by soccer mania. That's 45 percent higher than last month when, you know, we were in the midst of NBA finals fervor. Poly market up 24 percent over last month. And, you know, that was just record after record after record. Sportsbooks now are also raking it in. Caesars says it set a trifecta of records in the England versus Mexico match last night. Most unique visitors, most number of bets on soccer ever, and most soccer handle. That's the amount of money wagered.

38:08Vandal says almost 90 % of the World Cup handle is coming in on USA. And when USA wins, guys, it makes the customers so very happy. And the sports books are like, oh, this is going to hurt to pay out. And we're going to see if it affects their quarter. You know who's a real loser in all of this?

38:29Melissa Lee:Guy Adami. Macau casinos. The June gross gaming revenue was down 12 % over last year. And the analysts all say, yeah, that's because the discretionary gambling dollars are going to a World Cup and not to Baccarat.

38:46Tim Seymour:Interesting. How did the activity change on Calci when that red card reversal happened? Yeah. I would imagine like Belgium was the probable winner of the game. And then the announcement came out and then we saw this reversal where USA took the lead. Right. I asked Caesars about this, and Caesars said, yeah, what happened is we thought USA was going in without Balogun, and then we have to go back and revise the odds on all of these markets. They don't call them markets when it's sports books, on all of the propositions for the sports bettors because now they're playing with one of their leading strikers.

39:22He's already done three goals in World Cup so far. So, yeah, it changes things.

39:27Tim Seymour:I mean, I'm wondering, does Calci stands to benefit because the U.S. has greater odds? Calci is going to benefit just from the trading volume because they earn fees. But the volume is up. And the volume is way, way up. Just in general, whether you had money going in on Belgium or USA or whether you think France is going to walk away with it all, Calci's like, we don't care. Just keep breaking it in.

39:52Melissa Lee:Love the football. I love Contessa breaking down the football.

39:56Tim Seymour:That most of all.

39:57Melissa Lee:Now, all of what she said is salient. But on the trading front, she brings up Macau correctly. Look at the move to the downside and win from 135 to where it's trading down, 95 or so. Then a report until early August. I think you're going to see at some point the roles reverse here. I think win is a buy at these levels.

40:14Tim Seymour:Do analysts expect it to reverse in terms of the discretionary gambling dollar? It's not just that. There's also been a crackdown in Macau on currency. And so that combined with people's attention is going to soccer right now or football, or I don't know what they call it in China. But in other words, World Cup is finite. It's not going to last. But currency crackdowns have been a problem in Macau. So look at it for Wynn, for Melco, MGM to a lesser degree, and Las Vegas Sands, of course. Interesting. And of course, Calci doesn't actually pay. I mean, it's between, right? So they're the ultimate.

40:48Like they're going to facilitate the liquidity. They bring the money with the market makers. What's interesting, though, there's been a lot of questions about whether Flutter and FanDuel or DraftKings are going to be cannibalized by prediction markets. Both now saying, well, we're going to be in the market making business. So if you have FanDuel going in and helping to create parlays for, say, Calci, they're going to make money either way, too. They can make money on the B2B side of this.

41:16Tim Seymour:Contessa, thank you. Contessa Brewer. Are you betting?

41:19Melissa Lee:No, but there's an I'm enjoying it. There's an argument to be made. This is not one off. Every time the U.S. wins and every time, you know, our fans and our citizens get to experience this sort of thing, I mean, they're going to start or continue to bet. It's one of the most bet on sports on the planet. And, you know, the English Premier League guy, as you know, starts in August and all the European leagues do. Counting down the days. But think about this. All of these, you know, stars from all of these countries, they go back and play on their team. So this is good for all of those companies doing this because U.S.

41:48Melissa Lee:people were getting hooked on this stuff.

41:50Tim Seymour:Coming up, sticking with a new strategy, the company's latest Bitcoin sale in the next move for the crypto trade next. And here's a sneak peek at the Kramer camp. Jim is chatting exclusively with the CEO of chemical company Solstice. Catch a full interview top of the hour on Mad Money. More Fast Money in two.

42:12Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. Bitcoin rebounding from early losses after President Trump said he's become a, quote, big crypto guy. It had fallen more than 2 percent early in the session after a strategy said in a regulatory filing that it had recently sold 216 million dollars worth of Bitcoin. But again, you see you see the Trump effect on any asset class, which he touts. And there you go. Yeah. And I think the strategy effect is just the cloud over Bitcoin right now. Where do you actually need these companies? We've all talked about it. If you want to own Bitcoin, you own Bitcoin. You don't have to own a levered play or not.

42:50I almost think once they get out of the way, Bitcoin's actually going to rally extremely aggressively, I guess, if that's the word I'm looking for. But right now, the cloud over the whole sector are these types of companies. And Bitcoin is crypto. Crypto is Bitcoin.

43:11Melissa Lee:Well, I mean, the line in the sand clearly is about 60 ,000, which makes sense. We've traded down a few times that have bounced. The president, again, getting on the soapbox clearly helps. What doesn't help, in my opinion, is a hawkish Fed and some of the other things that are going on. So I still think there's another light glow. I think Carter suggests the charts think that. We'll see how it plays out.

43:31Tim Seymour:Yeah, Carter, what do you see? What are key levels to watch? Yeah, I mean, it's been bouncing around here, as all we'll know, trying to find its footing. I don't think it's convincing. My hunch is lower. And the derivative names think Microsoft is down some 85 percent from its peak. BMNR, Bitmoner down 90. It's not a good look. I'm not I'm not a buyer here. I mean, think back to when all the digital asset treasury companies were going public. A lot of them buy a SPAC, but they were out there with no other business premise other than raise capital by crypto. Presumably crypto goes higher and their stocks are higher, too.

44:08Tim Seymour:And here it's broken at this point.

44:11Melissa Lee:Yeah, you got to be a big promoter if you're going to have one of these crypto companies or these leveraged crypto companies, because, you know, the only hope right now is like, yeah, you can stake all your crypto, but it's literally not going to cover the billions and billions of dollars that these companies are down. They may never, ever get them back. So if you're the CEO or the chairman, you better come out with these, you know, 200, 300 percent targets for the underlying, because otherwise, if people lose confidence in the model and lose confidence in the underlying, these things are going to zero, just like a lot of the SPACs did or most of the SPACs did from 2021.

44:42Tim Seymour:Up next, final trades.

44:50Tim Seymour:Over the holiday weekend, we lost a longtime Fast Money fan, maybe one of its greatest fans. Tim Seymour's father, Michael McDonough Seymour, passed away on Friday for almost our entire run on Fast Money. Tim's dad was a nightly viewer.

45:05Melissa Lee:So, you know, obviously we all have our own families, but I think people have come to realize that we are family here. So when we lose somebody, we all lose a family member. So Mr. Seymour, married to his beautiful wife, Marilyn, for almost 66 years, five children, 12 grandchildren, a life extraordinarily well lived. So with our deepest sympathies to the Seymour family, for sure. Yes.

45:28Tim Seymour:Time for the final trade. Carter Braxton Worth. Baxter, classic value play, was 95, hit a low of 16, now a textbook bearish to bullish reversal. Steve? Tesla. Many investors are buying this one versus SpaceX, believe it or not, thinking it's a better valuation. Dan?

45:48Melissa Lee:Yeah. DRAM. So tomorrow morning, we have Samsung reporting overnight, and then we have the SK Hynix printing on Friday morning. I think you sell rallies in the DRAM. That is the ETF that tracks the space.

46:00Tim Seymour:Guy.

46:01Melissa Lee:Brian Kelly came to visit us tonight, hoping to get him back on. We don't know him as Brian Kelly. GDX, Carter Braxton Worth trade.

46:08Tim Seymour:Known as Bitcoin Baller. Tim, our thoughts are with you. Mad Money starts right now. All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet, or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such.

46:41To view the full Fast Money Disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com forward slash Fast Money Disclaimer. Buy the dip and save on CNBC Pro. 24-7 access to market-moving news and interviews across three global live streams for$59.99 at cnbc.com slash join CNBC Pro. Terms and conditions apply.

From the publisher

Stocks starting the week in the green as chip stocks rally and Apple notches its fourth straight day of gains. The Fast Money traders break down the rebound in semis and what it says about the broader market. Then, SpaceX joins the Nasdaq-100 in a historic fast-track inclusion. Niles Investment founder Dan Niles breaks down the index’s better-than-average performance and why he’s bullish on the diversified market until later this month. Plus, Dell surges after Trump’s endorsement, the backlash against tokenmaxxing, and how the World Cup is causing a prediction market surge.

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