Tech, Software Sell Off… And The Impact On Private Credit 2/3/26

18:27Tim Seymour:You're sort of you're the macro guy. But what sectors are you looking at? Yeah, well, I think more from a market cap perspective, something that's really interesting is you look at like small caps and EM off to the races. Phenomenal January. And we certainly don't want to fight momentum here. But we would just push back gently on the markets really in love with this pickup and growth story. And, yeah, I think it's right to have a little bit of caution around that.

18:54Karen Finerman:I agree. And I was looking at your notes and you say the story is still looks like cooling, not collapsing. But I think what you're saying, because I think the economy is expanding. And my view is, despite, you know, one member, maybe a couple members of the Fed that seem to be rubber stamping stuff, It's impossible for the Fed to be avoiding inflation here. And it seems to me it's a market that was expecting a lot more Fed. So as you look at the investment landscape, how much do you think less Fed is also an issue for markets here? Because if anything, what we're getting from the economy is stuff that is not indicative of, hey, we should be in a massive cutting cycle.

19:31Well, it's interesting because the bottom is not falling out. And you go back to small caps, that performance that we saw in January. how much of that rate-sensitive segment of the market is really betting on lower rates. If the market hangs in here, kind of the slow stretch expansion that we're seeing, an employment light expansion, I still think the Fed has a rate-cutting bias, but I don't think they need to get there too urgently.

19:53Tim Seymour:What if growth doesn't reaccelerate and it just goes flat? Because you say that's the biggest risk in the markets. What do the markets look like with that scenario? Yeah, I think that's spot on because the risk really isn't a recessionary tale. You look at kind of what the market, the tape's been telling you, and it really is pricing in this reacceleration. Now, maybe one healthier thing, we've seen small caps stretch positioning there on the longs, short positioning starting to bubble up. So that tells me that the market is loving this reacceleration growth story, but they're also maybe starting to hedge in case the data doesn't follow through.

20:29Tim Seymour:Which sectors are overweight in your view? So we're more focused on kind of at the market cap level. We like quality. We like, take, for instance, like a Russell 2000, that small cap index versus an S &P 600, where you can pick up a little more quality, a little more solid fundamentals. Again, kind of just back to is the market a little over its skis here, not pushing back on the momentum story broadly, but just being cognizant of this asymmetrical return opportunity. All right, Andrew, great to see you. Thank you. Thanks for having me. Andrew Davis. All right. What do you what do you make of the call on small caps?

21:04Well, I like the call that he made taking S &P 600 over over over the Russell, because you do get over 40 percent are unprofitable companies with S &P 600. I got to assume that's above 60 percent. I don't know if anyone knows that number. It's probably closer to 80 percent are profitable companies. So you've done a lot of your guesswork and a lot of your risk taking out of the market. You don't have to worry about the Fed as much with the S &P 600.

21:28Guy Adami:I mean, the real question is, is it about the denominator, right? I mean, alpha is generated by choosing something among other choices. If small caps really outperform, it's been nascent so far on a more enduring basis, two, three years. Is it because they're doing great or is it because the denominator, the market dominated by large cap, is struggling, right? And that we are actually heading lower. That's the real risk, independent of the absolute judgment to buy small cap.

21:52Tim Seymour:Coming up, the latest headlines, tanking shares of Novo Nordisk. What sent the stock into the red for the year? and the other pharma news on our radar. That is next. Plus, a trillion-dollar milestone for Walmart, the ripple effects of the crypto carnage, and a major drop in PayPal after CEO's shakeup. Don't go anywhere fast when he's back in tune.

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23:39Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. Shares of Novo Nordisk dropping midday to close 14.5 % lower. The drugmaker warning that sales could fall between 5 % and 13 % this year versus 10 % growth in 2025. The company grappling with a more competitive U.S. drug pricing environment, plus Ozempic's loss of exclusivity in several countries this year. Shares of Novo now negative for the year. For more on the impact, BMO head of health care research Evan David Siegerman joins us now on the Fast Line. Evan, great to have you with us.

24:07Guy Adami:Thank you for having me.

24:09Tim Seymour:What was interesting about today's decline was that it was a decline across the board for all of the obesity drug makers. What's your interpretation? What was sort of the read through for the sector? Great question. So first off, we got the Pfizer print where they released the initial kind of long-acting data from their MetSera product. Disappointed. And when I spoke to management and catching up with them after the call, they highlighted that they couldn't give us all the information that folks wanted. So I think investors couldn't actually determine if it was competitive to the offerings of Lilly and Novo.

24:41And then, of course, kind of surprised midday, Novo released their earnings a day early. What happened was when they realized that there was such a divergence between what they were printing and where consensus was, they had to go up for Danish law. So they surprised us at about noon today.

24:56Tim Seymour:OK, so but Pfizer, I mean, the MetSera thing, that's that was sort of a hope. OK, so you're saying that we don't have enough information. But for Novo, that really seemed to be what hit the group. So is it the notion that sales, that there's going to be less demand, that they're going to make less money, even though they have this first entry in the oral GLP-1 space? I mean, what is it about the story that is now impaired? That's a very, sorry. Yes, exactly. So I think with this kind of guidance, the thing that really stood out to me was the pricing headwinds we're seeing in the United States.

25:32We all know about that, but the fact that it's really cutting sales and profits so much for NOAA is really spooking investors. Of course, there is strength in the Wagovi pill, and the hope is that that would be enough to kind of overcome any headwinds. Beyond that, we have Lilly printing tomorrow, and they're unlikely to include significant credit for Orphaglipron in their guidance. So folks are concerned that that could be somewhat squishy as well. So I think that people are taking pause. Some of the pricing headwinds are coming, you know, it's coming to be. And then you need to see those volumes take up.

26:02They just haven't yet.

26:04Karen Finerman:Evan, it's Tim. Thanks for joining us. I got the sense that just the guide on the oral pill and some of the recent sales also just didn't live up to the hype. And I also get the sense that it's really the U.S. market, not what they're doing globally, that had people most upset. Can you talk about that? Most definitely. So, you know, the pill is early days. I mean, we've only had it out for a few weeks. And the scripts that we're tracking are incomplete. And I think that they want to be conservative there. When you look at the United States, you look at the scripts for Nova Nordisk and kind of they've been flatlining.

26:35So where is that volume coming from? That's the key question mark. You are correct. OUS, you are seeing a pickup in prescriptions for both the Novo products and the Lilly products in the cash pay segment. But still, the United States is so important for any player in this space. And when you have these massive kind of like moments where there are such big concerns around pricing and profitability, that spooks folks.

26:57Tim Seymour:Are you more worried today versus 24 hours ago or 48 hours ago about the element of pricing? I mean, what was notable also in today's sort of moves within the sector was that, you know, a structured therapeutics, for instance, that also was sold off to a certain extent. Is there just this fear that even if you come on with a new entry, that the pricing dynamic is such that it's going to be difficult for so many players to be in that same market? Well, I think for the long only investor, really long term, they know that. And it's a volume play. And that's still my thesis. So that hasn't changed.

27:30I think the near-term kind of headwinds are spooking folks. And it's been so tenuous, right? We want to see these do well. And something like this that just comes out of left field, that's the real issue. So people kind of panic. If Lilly has a decent print and kind of okay guidance, I think, that stabilizes things. On structure, what that means to me is that a buyer is just concerned that – or basically what that means to me is that a barrier may not be able to get as much value for a structure asset as they would have been able to. A lot of things going on. I expect things to stabilize, though.

28:05Tim Seymour:Evan, thank you for phoning in. Always good to get your analysis. Thank you so much. David Siegerman, BMO. We also have the element that Novo has a new CEO, and so part of this could be just…

28:16Karen Finerman:Communication doesn't…

28:16Tim Seymour:Right. Set the bar real low here for 2026.

28:19Karen Finerman:And the communication wasn't good before. So, I mean, part of what was announced is they're guiding basically a 26 outlook that was around 8 % below consensus. And some of that is communication. Some of that is just inconsistency. I don't think things are – I think things were misguided. Julie? Yeah, I agree. It's being able to manage expectations is very, very difficult, especially when you have this much hype because we can all recognize the size and the scale of the market that they're selling into. But the minute price really starts to come into the equation, that means your earnings visibility kind of disappears.

28:54And you have no sense of what the profitability, the underlying profitability, the earnings power of the business is. And that makes valuation really difficult. You have to trim. You have to take away.

29:05Tim Seymour:How do these stocks look?

29:07Guy Adami:Well, Novo, in particular, of course, is the one that parted ways with Lilly long ago and has been trying to base and bottom. But this is a bad setback. I would call this a failed bearish to bullish reversal. I would abandon it.

29:18Tim Seymour:There's a lot more Fast Money to come. Here's what's coming up next.

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31:16Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. Stocks falling today but closing well off their lows as investors rotate out of tech stocks. The Dow hitting a fresh all-time high this morning but dropping 166 points to end the session. It had been down 575 points at its lows. The S &P down 0.8 % and the Nasdaq leading the losses falling about 1.5%. Walmart bucking the trend and joining the$1 trillion market cap club, the move fueled by the growth of e-commerce and new digital businesses. Walmart up more than 28 % over the past year. Bitcoin, meantime, continuing its slide. The token hitting a low in the 72K range, the lowest since November 2024.

31:52Tim Seymour:Robinhood, Coinbase and MicroStrategy falling in sympathy. And PayPal dropping more than 20 percent today after missing earnings estimates. The fintech company also giving a disappointing profit forecast for 2026 and announcing a new CEO. Shares have lost more than 86 percent since hitting a record back in 2021. And some after hours action here. Take two higher after beating revenue expectations. Mondelez and Match Group both topping estimates on the top and the bottom lines. Mondelez flagging profitability headwinds coming from cocoa costs. And Clorox beating revenue expectations but coming up short on EPS.

32:26Tim Seymour:Carter, you've got some intelligence on Bitcoin.

32:30Guy Adami:Well, let's see. Some charts. Yes. So, well, look, the burden of proof is on the bull. The slippage continues. And the question is just how much more. Unknowable. But let's look at two charts and maybe we can figure out the way forward together. So this is a sort of one, two, three year chart. And we, of course, have broken trend that took place about three, four weeks ago. So that's an important circumstance. And it's a negative one. If you look at a longer term chart, we also have a decade long trend line. And that also has been breached. So typically that doesn't just, well, end up being a small thing.

33:06Guy Adami:It can be quite a bit more. It's not a casual event. And I think, again, buyer beware. Grasso? Yeah, I mean, there's a host of things. It could be quantum that's affecting it. It could be geopolitical. It could be people pulling. Gold has become the new Bitcoin, right? So Bitcoin was the new gold. That's obviously switched gears at this point. You never know until you know. And I think there were a couple of hacks. People are worried about their wallets. So you never know what the true sell pressure is. The charts indicate that there's more weakness to come. But there will be some bottom fissures.

33:41And the owners have a different mix to them. There's a lot more institutions. There's a lot more ETF owners. So we'll see how it plays out. Unfortunately, I, along with many, are getting hurt on the crypto collapse.

33:54Tim Seymour:Coming up, the knock-on effects from the software slide. Why the AI funding rush has taken a toll on private credit. The details from Fast Money returns.

34:06Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money Private Credit. Now, companies like Blue Owl, Aries, TPG slumping today as concerns grow over the exposure alternative asset managers have to the AI-disrupted software industry. Our next guest says the fears are overblown. Raymond James' Wilma Bertis joins us now. She's the director of equity research there. Wilma, great to have you with us. Thanks for having me. When you hear about a Blue Owl, all these names having, you know, 10 to 20 percent exposure to the software industry, there is fear. Walk us through what the risk actually is, if there is. The risk is really quite limited.

34:39When you look at the loan-to-values, they're about 30%. And so you've got 70 % equity layer that helps protect them from actually having any losses. And then they are fee-based companies, so they don't have balance sheet exposure to these loans. In addition to that, they're great underwriters. And so really, they've been very selective on software for the last several years, anticipating AI to come through.

35:03Tim Seymour:But with the declines that we've seen, I mean, we saw in one of Blue Owl's vehicles late last year where there was an unusually high request for redemptions. And that can sort of feed a spiral. Is there that concern on your part that with this fear, with the declines that we're seeing in the equity side of things, that there was going to be more redemptions and create that sort of vicious cycle? Owl is great at fundraising, and many of these companies are. And really, 4Q25 was a record for OWL as far as fundraising. I think that you see some different pressures potentially, but there's so much demand for these types of products, and they have great underwriting.

35:45So I think you'll continue to see strong demand.

35:47Karen Finerman:Wilma, great to have you. Bifurcation across credit, though, does seem to be kind of the story, and yet people tend to lump it all together. And then they'll look at a Blackstone or a KKR, and they'll look at those charts and say something's going on. And so can you try to break it down? Because it does feel that the bottom up is not pricing at all the same way. But it does seem as if that there are those subsectors that are doing just fine and those that are bubbling up a little bit more than others. Where are you concerned? And again, as we look at some of the mega cap credit players, alternative players who have a lot of exposure here, is the market overreacting?

36:27I think the market's absolutely overreacting. I think to your point, there are some funds that have not performed as well. You're seeing a little bit of divergence, but really Owl's credit's been great. The underwriting on most of these big companies you mentioned has been pretty strong.

36:41Tim Seymour:When you take a look, though, at the concerns about just the AI infrastructure build-out and whether there's too much and if the demand is going to keep up, and these players also have that exposure in terms of loans to finance the build-out of AI, Is there any worry that some of these loans are being made for, you know, demand that is projected that might not come to fruition? The companies write pretty strong contracts in order to protect themselves from losses. And so the way I see it, most of these loans, the worst case scenario would be something like a high single digits type return. If there's actually more demand for data centers than expected, it could even there could be quite a bit of upside to that.

37:20So I think that they do a good job protecting themselves and underwriting.

37:24Tim Seymour:You seem really like no concerns about the sector at all. Is that a fair characterization? I think to your other point, there has been some diversions, but I think that the strong players are doing quite well. Okay, so buy. Absolutely buy. Absolutely. Wilma, great to have you with us. Thanks for joining us. Thank you. Appreciate it. Wilma Bertis. Julie Beal, would you buy? I have some hesitation. I think it's hard underwriting some of these projects when we don't have a lot of representation of how they're going to pay out. The deals are very complex. I think most of them are probably going to be fine, but I don't know how much any kind of default is priced in there.

38:05And we know that that's always a risk. It would be the very first time in any kind of technology transition if there weren't overbuilding of capacity and assets. It would be the very first time. So you have to assume there will be some, and hopefully the largest, most well-capitalized players who have been doing this a long time will be fine. But I do think that there will be some heartache on the way.

38:25Guy Adami:Well, the first thing is the word steadfast came to mind. As I was listening to one of that, that was very common and reassuring. But let's go to maybe price. These are the most cyclical assets there are. I mean, every one of these stocks, from Aries to Blue Owl, KKR Powell, Just during the sell-off of tariffs, they lost 40 percent plus. Not a one was down less. During the bear market of 2022, almost 50 percent. Something's wrong. They're in trouble. I would not step in the way right here. Let's go back to the cockroaches' comments all over the place. You could use that analogy anywhere. But there's plenty of things that have been down 40 percent.

39:02I'd rather go with cars and say it's a no-touch than to look under the hood. I could trade these technically, but you have no idea what financial or fundamentals are under the hood in these. If you don't know, you don't buy it.

39:15Tim Seymour:I guess, you know, it's sort of if you take a look at Oracle and the CDS and the concern about Oracle's ability to pay, you know, to pay its debts. And then you have this sort of it seems like if you have a concern about that, then there should be some concerns about the loans extended to fund the A.I. build out. And I get that they can have very tight and high underwriting standards, but I don't know how the two things can.

39:39Karen Finerman:Well, and that's the point. So and where the spillovers into leverage loans and other parts that I think are all affected here. There's no question that Oracle seemingly has funded 2026 CapEx. Who knows about 27 CapEx? I'm not saying that this is a company that's going anywhere, but, you know, it's an enormous amount of money. It's an enormous amount of funding. And I still think that even before any of this, people had a question that there are certain parts of the credit world that have grown, especially middle markets, that have been wild in terms of the growth. And the view is that somewhere there is a shock that would cause a couple of dominoes to fall.

40:17Karen Finerman:That's, you know, that's the word.

40:19Tim Seymour:It sounded like you would be inclined, though, to pick up some KKR or some of the that that's been sort of thrown out.

40:26Karen Finerman:I think I think KKR and Blackstone are always the smartest guys in the room. And so, you know, my guess is the diligence that's going on in terms of the underlying managers. But flows in terms of liquidity are sometimes things they cannot control. And that's some of the cyclicality in the asset management business we've seen.

40:43Tim Seymour:Coming up, more after hours action and shares of Chipotle. The numbers from the company's latest quarter and the headlines from the conference call. That is next. And check out some stocks trading at records even in today's sell-off. Cisco at the highest level in its 35-year history as a public company. Caterpillar closing at its best level since its 1929 IPO. And ExxonMobil and Coca-Cola trading at their highest since hitting the market more than a century ago. Don't go anywhere. Fast Money's back in two.

41:13Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. An earnings alert on Chipotle. Shares down despite a beat on the top and the bottom lines. They had nearly clawed back to break even before falling again down 7 percent right now. Kate Rogers has the details. Hey, Kate. Hey, Melissa. So the company closing out a tough year, as you said, beats on the top and bottom lines this quarter, but a drop in same-store sales of 2.5 percent. That was a bit better than analysts had projected. Traffic, though, did decline for the fourth quarter in a row. Chipotle also had its first full-year same-store sales contraction since 2016 last year.

41:43It's projecting now 2026 comps to be about flat, as executives pointed to guests placing heightened focus on value and quality and pulling back on overall restaurant spending. CEO Scott Boatwright called the backdrop dynamic and fundamentally different than it was a year ago. The company also said margins will be pressured, particularly in the first half of this year. The stock, as you said, did reverse some of its losses as Boatwright laid out the recipe for growth strategy, which will center on menu innovation, reinforcing value, developing talent, expanding internationally and leveraging technology and AI to improve throughput in the restaurants.

42:19Chipotle is also searching for its next chief marketing officer and plans to hire a chief digital officer and VP of emerging technologies as it focuses on both marketing and tech to move the needle this year. One more interesting nugget from this conference call. They did note that the protein offerings that they put forth have had a really outsized impact on the younger consumer, Melissa, and that that trend kind of really has a hold on that group. And that's a group that they're looking to try and bring back in their stores. So we'll see if it works.

42:47Tim Seymour:Back over to you. Kate, thanks. Kate Rogers. We haven't said it yet.

42:51Karen Finerman:I was going to say, this almost feels like a burrito blowout. It is a burrito. And they can go both ways.

42:56Tim Seymour:It can go both ways. And we can say with the stock down 7 percent. I'm glad we got there. In terms of bringing back the younger consumer, though, this is the cohort that has hit the most in terms of trying to find a job. It's very difficult for college grad. And so that's going to, you know, add to pressure here for its demographic. Yeah, I think the demographic, that's a wall in front of it. Also, it's 100 percent domestic, basically. So there is an opportunity to grow international. That's going to cost money. I get that. The big push is the digital sales, right? So we all know why. Because when you go to a Chipotle, it's difficult to order more.

43:32The number one complaint for Chipotle, not to get too much in the weeds here, you've been there, is trying to order multiple things at once with a line of people behind you. So you're that guy. I don't know what the answer is. No, I don't do it. I don't do it. So I would order more. I have a family of six. I'd order more, but we have to do it digitally. You can never do it in person. That's a flaw. You'd order more, but you... Unless you order digitally. So they spike themselves out of sales. They've got to figure out that assembly line.

44:01Guy Adami:So you're not getting what you want. Look at the Sebastian Maniscalco. Coming away hungry. He's such a pro-pressure.

44:08Tim Seymour:Prograsso. All right, coming up. Home Sweet Trump. Builders getting a boost on reports of some deals with the administration. What's in the works and what it could mean for housing affordability. More Fast Money in Two.

44:22Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. The ITB home construction ETF rising over 2 % today as Bloomberg reports that homebuilders are working on a housing affordability plan dubbed Trump Homes. The program calls on builders to sell entry-level homes in a path-to-ownership program funded by private investors. Lenar and Taylor Morrison said to be among the companies drafting the plan. Paul T.D.R. Horton, KB Homes also firmly higher today. Will this last, this bounce, Steve? It remains to be seen. I think the biggest thing is going to be interest rates, the path that we find on mortgage rates. But this is a win-win for housing stocks because the builders are not putting up the capital.

45:00It's private funding. It's not government funding. It's private funding. So I do believe until we get some of the details sorted out, you buy the home builders.

45:07Karen Finerman:Tim? I guess I'm a little concerned. I think the home builders have had a lot of good news over the last couple months. And certainly, you know, you're not terribly far off of those 52-week highs here. I just think the multiples are somewhat difficult at some point. I also just think there are other places in the housing trade. I would much rather own Home Depot. Sorry for doing that. All right. Julie, quick. I just did something. Yeah, no, I agree. I think I would rather own some of the tertiary players. I hate the exposure that you get from single players. So I'd own a Simpson over that. Okay.

45:39Carter?

45:40Guy Adami:I concur. I concur. For instance, Home Depot, better here. The home builders, the chart of the ITB, pair of twos. All right.

45:47Tim Seymour:Up next, final trades.

45:58Final trade time, Julie Beal. Jack Henry reported good results today. And as much as I love Cloud Code, I don't see it replacing banking cores anytime soon. Tim Seymour.

46:08Karen Finerman:I feel pretty comfortable nibbling back into the software part of this trade, as Carter said. I mean, if anything, you know, put a little something long against whatever might be happening in semis. But Microsoft, worth owning.

46:20Tim Seymour:Carter Braxton Worth.

46:21Guy Adami:Semis and software are structurally linked. Sell semis, extended.

46:28Tim Seymour:Stephen? I felt like it was a quick show. Does that mean it was a good show? I don't know. How did you do? Along to me. I think I did it. Other than the Chipotle thing, I think I was okay. Q2 Holdings is the way I'm taking a risk here. Please use the stop if you buy the stock. Thanks for watching Fast See You tomorrow. Closing Bell Overtime. Mad Money starts right now. All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet, or another medium.

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