In short
CNBC's "Fast Money" Episode Summary: The Global Sell-Off Deepens… And The Impact On Rates (4/4/25)
Overview In this episode, "Fast Money" discussed the significant sell-off in global markets attributed to President Trump's new tariff plans. With the S&P 500 experiencing its worst two-day slide in five years and the bond market reacting to the heightened trade tensions, the episode featured insights from experts on where investors can find safety during this tumultuous period.
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Key Points
Market Reactions
- Severe Stock Market Declines
- The S&P 500 dropped over 10% in 48 hours.
- The Dow Jones fell nearly 2,200 points, marking its third-largest point drop in history.
- Nasdaq saw losses around 11.5%, with significant declines in major tech stocks like Tesla, NVIDIA, and Apple.
- Impact on Volatility
- The VIX (volatility index) spiked above 40, reaching levels not seen in five years, indicating rising market anxiety.
Global Responses to Tariffs
- International Retaliation
- China imposed a 34% retaliatory tariff on U.S. exports and restricted exports of critical minerals.
- The EU expressed commitment to defending its interests while engaging in negotiations.
- Vietnam proposed eliminating tariffs in hopes of striking a deal with the U.S.
Economic Implications
- Fed's Position
- Former Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester discussed the Fed's challenges amidst rising prices due to tariffs, emphasizing the need to anchor inflation expectations.
- Economic Indicators
- A strong jobs report was overshadowed by fears of a growth scare rather than an inflation scare, leading to market uncertainty.
Analyst Opinions
- Market Conditions
- Analysts suggested the U.S. is in a bear market, with many stocks down significantly from their highs.
- The S&P's RSI (Relative Strength Index) readings suggested a potentially oversold market, yet caution was advised regarding new investments.
- Recession Odds
- JP Morgan raised recession odds to 60%, citing the potential for GDP contraction in upcoming quarters.
Investment Strategies
- Finding Safety
- Analysts discussed where to invest amid market turmoil:
- Utilities and Defensive Stocks: Analysts pointed to companies in sectors like insurance and utilities as safer bets during downturns.
- Cash Reserves: Financial experts recommended building cash reserves through money market funds and high-yield savings accounts to mitigate risk.
Final Trades
- Carter Worth: Suggested postponing new buying and keeping cash reserves.
- Tim Seymour: Recommended European telcos for defensive positioning.
- Mike Coe: Highlighted the potential in utilities and Vistra as growth opportunities.
- Steve Grasso: Indicated buying Intel, seeing it as undervalued.
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Conclusion The episode underscored the severity of the current market sell-off driven by trade tensions and the complexity surrounding Federal Reserve policies. With significant losses and heightened volatility, experts provided insights into navigating this challenging landscape, emphasizing safety strategies, the importance of cash reserves, and potential defensive investment opportunities.
For more detailed information, consult the [Fast Money Disclaimer](https://www.cnbc.com/fast-money-disclaimer/).
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:03Live from the Nasdaq market today on a day when the global market sold off for the second straight day. This is Fast Money. Here's what's on tap tonight. Stocks posting their worst two-day slide in five years. The S &P dropping over 10 % in just the last 48 hours. The Nasdaq down nearly 11.5 % in that time. And the Dow dropping close to 4 ,000 points yesterday and today combined. Those moves are staggering. Over the next hour, we'll break down the country-by-country response to President Trump's tariffs. We'll get insights on the challenges the Fed faces right now from former Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester.
0:35And we'll go inside the massive slide this week. We've seen beyond stocks and oil, the dollar yields and much more. I'm Melissa Lee coming to you live from Studio B at the NASDAQ. On the desk tonight, Carter Worth, Steve Grasso, Tim Seymour and Mike Coe. We start off with a sharply intensifying sell off on Wall Street. The S &P dropping another six percent today, now down more than 10 percent since President Trump announced his sweeping tariff plans Wednesday night. The benchmark index losing five trillion dollars in market cap in that period, putting it its worst two day drop in its worst week since March 2020.
1:06It also closed at its lowest level since last May. The Dow dropping more than 2 ,200 points, its third biggest point drop in history, and nearly 4 ,000 points in two days. The Nasdaq also sinking 6 % with massive losses in Tesla, NVIDIA, and Apple. Tesla, in fact, has been cut in half from its record high, Apple dropping below the$3 trillion market cap mark for the first time since June. The VIX, well, volatility index spiking above 40, closing at the highest level in five years. All this as countries start to retaliate against President Trump's tariffs. Megan Casella joins us now with a rundown of their responses.
1:41Megan. Hey, Melissa, we've been seeing some defiance from around the world today as countries are looking to push back on these tariffs. China, of course, being the strongest example, taking a multi-pronged approach. Thirty four percent retaliatory tariffs on all U.S. exports to China with no exemptions. They also restricted exports of some critical minerals, which the U.S. uses in MRIs and electronics. And they added 11 U.S. companies to a list that essentially bars those companies from doing business in China. We're also just in the last few minutes learning from multiple reports that there was another casualty.
2:14Trump had a TikTok deal in place with China set on Wednesday that would move it to be U.S.-owned and operated. But all of that fell apart after Trump announced his tariff plans. ByteDance, the parent company, said that China would no longer approve the deal, another casualty so far of these tariffs. Then there's the EU. Its trade commissioner today said that he spent two hours talking with the U.S. commerce secretary and the trade rep. He says the EU is committed to meaningful negotiations, but it also is prepared to defend its interests. Now, other countries are taking somewhat of a softer approach.
2:47President Trump said today that he spoke directly with the head of Vietnam's ruling party and that the country offered to cut all of its tariffs down to zero if it can make a deal with the U.S. Now, Trump did not commit to that, but it was the first confirmation that we've seen that the president is at least taking calls with world leaders on the tariffs. But I will caution that post from the president came just a couple of hours after he kicked off this morning by vowing that, quote, his policies will never change. Melissa. Megan, thank you. Megan Casella with the latest on the retaliatory measure the countries might take.
3:21So all this really underscores the notion that there is no clearing event, that the tariff announcement was, in fact, not a clearing event, that we are well in the deep of the muck of uncertainty, Tim, when it comes to how we trade this market. There's no question. We learned three things today. And this discussion about the EU, remember, they have this, their most important trade weapon is this thing called the ACI, the anti-corrosion instrument. And if this is what we, you know, what our market does on a response to China, You know, EU, I think on some level is a more important trading partner.
3:52But what we also learned, the other two really big aspects of today, and then we can get into how oversold or how opportunistic investors want to be when looking at oversold conditions, because they are. But we learned that Microsoft is GDP dependent. And we learned that the Fed is not going to blink. So there's there's very little in terms of what you heard from one of the most important companies in the world who at least we hadn't heard backtrack off of massive CapEx plans. A Fed that we still think that the market is so inured to the Fed having a put that is something that is bailed out the market time and time again, certainly since 2008.
4:28Any of us that have been in the market have expected this and it does not seem like it's coming here. So it's it's fascinating to see how quickly this move has happened. And I would just say the move in oil is something that concerns me because it's another example of where this wasn't a demand dynamic. This is OPEC plus and policy response that also, to me, is going to get at risk dynamics. And where I do think that there are parts of the market where there's a lot of leverage tied into the commodity space. And I do think this is just another example of places where you could see places get significantly more oversold than they are even here.
4:59So Tim talks about oversold. The S &P has an RSI of 24. The semis, the socks has an RSI of 20. That's the lowest reading since 2018. It's pretty unbelievable. The breadth of the Russell, 23 down to everyone up, 16 down to everyone up in the S &P. It made me think the volume has been so high the last couple of days. Is this the bottom? Maybe, maybe not, but it's a good spot to start picking around. So I've been buying. Individual stocks or the index? I bought Intel today. I bought Capri today. I bought my third day of Lucid Motors. I think there's some buying opportunities around the horn in every space and sector.
5:43I think the semis probably can see more downside, but they're due for a pop, too. Carter, you see a lot more downside to the S &P, at least. Yeah, I think the first thing that I think needs to be noted or said or understood by all of us, right, is that it didn't just happen in the last five, six weeks, right? so that we know at the index level, whether you take the S &P 500 or the Russell 3000, which represents 98 % of the investable capital of the United States, the peak was, per the headlines, the 19th of February. But the day we were making those highs, fully 10%, I mean, excuse me, fully 30 % of all stocks had lost 10 % already from their highs.
6:21The average stock peaked in October. That's five months ago, not five weeks ago. And right now, as of today's close, the median performance of all 3 ,000 stocks is down 38%. The transports are down almost 30. The BKX down 30. The SOX down 40. We're well into a bear market. Now, the headlines are waiting. Someday someone's going to print it that it's down 20%. That's not the definition of a bear market. We're in it, and the question is how much more to go. I would resist the temptation to buy. Just there is a phrase that I committed to memory from a teacher and mentor years ago. I heard him only use it three, four times in the course of 20 years, and he said simply this, there's nothing to be lost by postponing all new buying.
7:02Think how calm that is, right? What he's saying is don't sell it all or play for the balance. He's just saying if you're a long-only, established professional in this business, hey, this is a time to just stand aside. Michael, are you standing aside? Yeah, you know, I am standing aside. I'll tell you the couple things I was looking at. And I think we've all been in the business for about the same amount of time. And this situation is up there in the top three geo macro kind of events that have hit equities since I've been in the business. The great financial crisis was one of these and the pandemic was the other.
7:43But this is a bigger, I think, macroeconomic impact than, say, the rate hiking cycle in 2022. 2022, and we saw equities drop about 25 % at that point. And the Feb highs that Carter was referencing, we were trading well over our historical multiple to forward earnings. If you just wanted to get back to the mean, that's probably going to be another 10 % to 13 % down from here. And I think that if you're in a bear market, and we've seen a lot of things that suggest that we are, you would expect that the biggest index would actually hit that level formally, which means that you'd have to lose another 5 % at least, probably in the S &P.
8:25So I don't think you need to back up the truck here. It's not like you're buying it at 16 times forward. You know, it's still trading closer to 20. Yeah, and it's always important, right? One has to know who one is in the market. There are people who will trade and catch a bounce. There's nothing wrong with that. That's excellent if you can do it. But the general thrust of the long-only capital that is in every endowment and every museum and every university and every pension plan, it is not a time to be exposing yourself more to the Equimart, in my view. And we discussed this a little bit before.
8:59There's only two ways a market can go up. Either you have an expansion of the P.E. multiple or you have earnings growth. And which of those two is likely to happen in the coming three to six months? We expand the multiple? No, the multiple contracts in periods of risk where the earnings are about to start accelerating dramatically. Neither of those things are likely to happen. Yeah. Yeah. Tim, you had said that we've learned that Microsoft is actually, I think you used the word exposed or dependent on GDP growth. And of course, we knew that all along. But do you think that Microsoft and stocks of that ilk, the MAG7, the Fateful Eight, whatever you want to call them, have reflected the idea that we are in a slowdown, possibly a recession, that CapEx could be cut?
9:44I mean, some will say that this drawdown reflects that. What CEOs are not gathering in boardrooms at the biggest companies in the world and deciding what we need to change in our strategy? What has changed? This is what investors are doing. I'm not suggesting, first of all, of course, Microsoft is GDP dependent. And I think my point is they are GDP dependent when posed the question, what could this mean in terms of their commitment to CapEx and where they are? So I just think that we're all talking. It's first of all, yes, it's a market stay. There's plenty to talk about. Steve brought up some really important levels, levels of how oversolved we are.
10:18But no, we're having theoretical conversations here because it's important time to talk theory. Theory is that global trade is being rewired, that there is 15 trillion in assets that are foreign assets that are going to figure out whether they want to be dollar hedged or not. But there's no question that assets look more interesting in certain parts of the world that never have before. So I think that the theory around this is part of what we're talking about. So back to Microsoft. I don't know what they're going to do. I'm not sure they know what they're going to do. And I don't think they're going to be whimsical about this.
10:49I just wanted to point out that today was a day where people are looking to get some real insight into what earnings season is going to tell us in terms of what the most important C-suite is going to do in this environment post-tariff shock. I think that's it. The other thing is, you know, we had a jobs number today. We haven't talked about it yet. It's great that this was a stronger jobs number than people might have expected. We know there's some downward revisions. But but but the reality is we know that this data is meaningless. And I'll say it again because, well, I don't know where and to what extent we have a growth scare from here.
11:20But we all know a growth scare is significantly different than the inflation scare. And Carter gave some of the levels. Mike gave some of the levels in terms of what what the what the inflation scare, the Fed scare, the rate scare meant back in 22. too. The growth scares, it's a whole different ball of wax and something that people have to ask themselves, what have equities priced in here? We know they're oversold. We know there's opportunities. Well, RBC cut its S &P year-end target to a new street low today of 55.50. That is down from 6 ,200. But the firm saying its one-time bear case is now its base case.
11:54Lori Calvacina is behind that call. She's RBC's head of U.S. equity strategy. She joins us now. Lori, great to see you. What changed in the storyline of the markets between, you know, yesterday and today or Wednesday and today, I should say? Well, it's a great question, Melissa. And I would say what we did this morning was something we had been telling people we were going to do if a certain condition was met over the past few weeks. If you go back to March 17th, we actually cut our target from 6600 down to 6200 and we refined our bear case a little bit to 5550. 5550. Now, we came into the year.
12:24So if you go all the way back to November of last year, when we first put our outlook out, you know, we thought the market was still on a good path. But we also felt like there was a lot of policy fog and a lot of just fog generally in the outlook. So we put together a bear case and we were monitoring that very closely. And we found ourselves this year talking about the odds of having to pivot to that bear case. And, you know, I think at the beginning of the week, last week, maybe when we have March 17th, when we put that report out, I think I said, you know, 40 percent chance we might have to pivot to the bear.
12:51And for me, it was the whole idea of a garden variety pullback is 5 % to 10%. If you breach 10%, then you've got to listen to what the market's telling you. It's telling you you're probably headed for something like we saw in 2010 through 2018, where we had four distinct growth scares, where you bottomed out in kind of the 14 % to 20 % range. And those were all big fears of crises or recessions that didn't materialize. But you had a lot of panic in the market about those things. So we've been worried about that possibility for a while. And we found over the last few weeks, we just kept saying, look, if the mid-March lows don't hold, we're going to have to pivot to the bear case.
13:25And guess what? On Thursday, the mid-March lows didn't hold. I mean, we just blew right past them. And it's remarkable, Melissa, how quickly people went from talking about stagflation to recession. It felt like it happened in a heartbeat. So we felt like, to be intellectually honest with our process, we had to make that change. So it sounds like, according to those key levels, Lori, that you think that the markets have more to go lower. Yeah, look, a growth scare, you know, and to me, that's those 2010, 2011, 2018, 2015, 16 drawdowns. They ranged 14 to 20, average of 17 percent. We're about at the average now.
13:57But I think 2018 is the most comparable one because we had frothy positioning and valuation. We had a trade war. And we also had concerns about Fed policy error. This time, I would argue investors are concerned not about the Fed, but about, you know, sort of fiscal or the new administration, whatever bucket these tariffs fall into. And so, you know, the idea there, right, there's a lot that's rhyming and it was about a 20 percent drawdown that could get you down to forty nine hundred on the S &P pretty quickly. Lori, you don't have an easy job. And with the situation being so fluid, what makes you have to pivot again?
14:30We saw the conversations with Vietnam today. What makes you have to pivot again? And what's the criteria for you to raise those levels? How quickly can you turn on a dime with this? Or is it something that you're going to wait six months to see? I'm not going to wait six months, Steve. You know, I've just taken a, frankly, a different approach to price targets this year. I am so tired of people looking at strategists and saying, you guys make a call in January and don't change it all year. Well, you know what? We're just like the stock analysts. If conditions change, we go to our computers, we go to our Excel spreadsheets, we input the numbers, and we make changes.
15:06And so that's really how we've approached it. We've been a lot more aggressive this year with moving our numbers around. And I'll tell you, Steve, what changed between my 6200 and my 5550 is, you know, in certain models, at least on the GDP side, I went from a 1.6 percent GDP assumption this year in real terms. I took that down to 0.5 percent just on the cusp of recession, but not quite having one. We also changed our inflation assumptions. So we had been in the upper twos. We went to the upper threes. We weren't having any Fed cuts before. We put a few Fed cuts back in. We also moved around our 10-year numbers a little bit, and we just kind of moved to 5 percent after consulting with our rates team about what a reasonable level would be.
15:46And when we take our inflation number up, that takes our P.E. multiple assumption down. When we take our GDP numbers down, that takes our earnings number down. So, you know, I would say, Steve, if I'm thinking mechanically about the modeling, I've got to get more confidence in a better GDP number. I've got to get more confidence in a more benign inflation number. Those are just a couple of things that you could start with. us. Are there sectors that are defensive, Lori, relatively more defensive? I think it's a great question, Melissa. And, you know, I was really sort of intrigued by your conversation in the earlier segment about kind of what you do in here.
16:17And I'll be honest with you, I don't really like defensive sectors. I'm overweight utilities and I'm sticking with that one. That's my defensive bet. But it is already expensive. That's probably one of the sectors where we have a little bit more certainty on earnings. I'm sticking with it, frankly, because if you look at health care, if you look at consumer staples, we can get cheaper valuation multiples there. And they're certainly working. You're seeing sort of a classic knee-jerk defensive reaction in the market, the same way you did back in the 2018 trade where those classic defensive sectors are working.
16:46But when I'm thinking forward about what I would be buying now for anything more than just sort of a short-term knee-jerk trade, there's a lot of policy disruption risk in both of those sectors. There's a lot of consumer risk sitting in both of those sectors. So I'm not inclined to chase them right now. Right. And tariff risk in health care. Lori, great to see you. Thank you. Thanks for having me. Lori mentioned utilities as a relatively safe sector. Carter, I saw you shaking your head. What's your opinion on this? Look, there's a playbook that everyone relies on. It's day one, hour one in your business school class, whatever it is, you go defensive.
17:18And that is traditionally consumer staples. The original expression from the 40s, 50s was soap and cereal. We have biscuit companies like Nabisco that make crackers and soap companies like Colgate. It was not health care because, you know, 150 years ago, health care was bite the stick and we're going to slough your leg off. Hope it doesn't go so bad, right? There was no health care. Guys with magic potions in bottles. So true defensive is soap and cereal. But utilities, for instance, it's not a practical. It's 2.5 % of the S &P. Put your whole thing in utilities. It can't absorb that kind of capital.
17:50Better than doing any of that is to postpone all new buying. There's one little tag here. You know how they always say about timing the market, and I agree. You're a conscientious person. You look at this stuff. But when you look at timing the market, seven of the best days happen within 15 days of the 10 worst days. So when you think about timing the market, you could very easily be out of the market for the best days and lose your year performance in those top 10 days. So stay in the markets. You have to see it through. What's your time frame? But that's what Carter said, that you have to know who you are.
18:24Are you a trader or are you an investor? And some of the biggest days of all are bear market bounces, right? Sure, exactly. Meantime, a growing number of Republican lawmakers sounding off on President Trump's tariff plan and the steps they could take to blunt the impact they could have. Emily Wilkins is live in Washington with the very latest. Emily. Emily, yeah, the impact of tariffs. They're really rattling Republicans on Capitol Hill. And lawmakers are actually starting to break with Trump on this. So far, we've got four Republicans. They signed on to brand new legislation that gives Congress the power to approve or roll back tariffs.
18:59Senator Chuck Grassley, he introduced the bill, and he's now joined by Mitch McConnell, Lisa Murkowski, and Jerry Moran. And that bill could attract even more support. We've talked to senators like Mike Rounds and Tom Tillis. They say that they like the idea of Congress taking back some of its power over tariffs. And we now know that in the House, Don Bacon has confirmed to CNBC that he is planning to offer a similar bill. Now, other Republicans, they're holding their breath right now. They're not signing on to anything or doing votes. They want to see what Trump and other countries do here. But Senator Ted Cruz actually warned on his podcast today that tariffs remain, if tariffs remain in place for the next few months, The result could destroy jobs here at home and do real damage to the U.S.
19:43economy if we had tariffs everywhere. And then the other day, Senator John Kennedy, he had a slightly different way of putting that. Tariffs are a little like whiskey. A little whiskey under the right circumstances will refresh you. too much whiskey under the wrong circumstances will make you drunk as a goat. The next test for tariffs could come as soon as tonight. Democrats are going to be forcing a vote on rolling back any tariffs that Trump has put in place that increase the cost of groceries, medicine, and other secondary goods. That's going to be part of a much larger debate on Trump's agenda.
20:28Not expected to get enough votes to go forward, but again, Melissa, It's very interesting at this point to see which Republicans will break enough with Trump to actually come forward and vote. Emily, thank you. Emily Wilkins. So a lot of investors are questioning the Trump put. They're certainly questioning the Fed put at this point. Could there be a Congress, a congressional put? Mike Coe? Well, I mean, first of all, they're going to have to all sort of come to an agreement between the two houses to sort of figure that one out. That's that's the first part. And look, I mean, however fast that happens, there's still quite a few trading days between now and then.
21:03So even if they did essentially reassume Congress's exclusive right to, for example, raise revenue, so they had by statute given these tariffs rights to the president in a couple of different cases in past decades, you know, it's still going to take a little while for us to fix this. And we're seeing that, I mean, just basically in the repercussions from places like China. Coming up, much more on the global market sell-off as the world responds to Trump's tariff plan, including the rate route hitting the bond market, the technical take on the market drop, and where you can find safety amid the sell-off.
21:38But first, Fed Chair Jerome Powell weighing in on the central bank's rate path, how he sees tariffs impacting inflation, the job market, and what they do next. Don't go anywhere. Fast Money is back in two.
21:59Welcome back to Fast Money. President Trump saying in a post on Truth Social today that it is the perfect time for Fed Chair Jerome Powell to cut interest rates. This came right before Powell's speaking event at a business journalism conference. It was the first time the chair spoke publicly since the tariffs were announced Wednesday. CNBC's Steve Leisman with the blow by blow. And Steve, it didn't sound like the Fed chair was going to cut anytime soon. no he did not really respond to the president and i don't think he will look what he did is he acknowledged publicly what the markets have figured out through their pricing here the effects of the tariffs on the economy and inflation are going to be larger than expected larger than the fed penciled in but he seemed to disappoint market to saying the fed is in no hurry to change its policy and they're going to make sure that temporary tariff inflation doesn't turn into permanent tariff inflation.
22:49Our obligation is to keep longer term inflation expectations well anchored and to make certain that a one time increase in the price level does not become an ongoing inflation problem. OK, so he also said the economy is in good shape. Not a bad way to start the if you're going to have a downturn here. And policy is still moderately restrictive. So So no need to hike. I suppose that's modestly good news. But tariff inflation could be temporary or, here's the problem, more persistent. That's what he's watching out for. Well, the market thinks the Fed is cutting anyway. Not immediately in May, but pretty sure about a July cut and then a third cut in September.
Read the full transcript
23:29And a fourth cut has become built in since those new tariffs were announced. The question is whether the economic effects of the market sell-off, Do they create their own economic reality and become serious enough to be another factor that could motivate the Fed to act? They would have to assess it very seriously to overcome their concern about tariff inflation, Melissa. Did he actually address the S word, Steve, sagflation? I don't think I was listening, but I didn't hear it actually be uttered. I don't think he addressed it, Melissa. But but it's it. Look, it's inherent. I can go back to his actual comments.
24:06But he said there's higher risk for growth and higher risk for inflation. So the Fed is in this vice right now that you can, I think, for a little bit. When he said that I'm worried about inflation over quarters, he used that term, that's like six months. So what is that? April and six is October, right? Right. So if you think about that, it may be I don't think it's going to be October before the Fed figures it out, but it's going to be several months for the Fed to figure out that this initial inflationary tariff impulse passes through here. All right. Steve, thank you. Steve Leisman. For more on what the Fed may do next, let's bring in former Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester.
24:50She joins us now. She's currently an adjunct professor at Wharton and a CNBC contributor. Loretta, great to have you with us. Thanks for having me, Melissa. So are you on board? It looks like the markets are pricing in with a high probability when I say that above 50 percent of three cuts this year. Do you see that? So I think the Fed's in a difficult position. I mean, as Steve Leisman just pointed out in the chair said today, the tariffs affect inflation and they affect growth and employment, the other part of the mandate. So the Fed's got to play this very carefully. They don't know what's going to end up happening later in the year.
25:29And I think that's what the chair said, right? So for now, we know that we're going to see prices rise from the tariffs. It's the Fed who can prevent those one-of price increases from becoming embedded in inflation. And that's what I think the chair was trying to say, which is, look, we have to keep our eye on inflation expectations and not allow those to rise because that's the mechanism through which those one-off price increases from tariffs could morph into more persistent inflation. So I think he's right to keep his eye on that now. And then when further information comes out and we see how the economy is going to be re-reacting, we'll have a better sense of how much the downside is in terms of growth and employment, and the Fed can react then if they have to, if necessary.
26:20Remember, there's also other policies that are affecting the economy as we go forward as well. You have the tax cuts, and we don't really know what that's going to look like yet. We have immigration, which is going to be hurting the labor force growth. So that's also a negative. So there's a lot happening in this economy. There's still a lot of uncertainty. And I think what the Fed needs to do is keep its focus on both parts of the mandate, make sure that it doesn't allow the one of price increases that we know are going to come with inflation to become more permanent. And I think that's what the Fed's job is.
27:01And the chair said that today, that it's their responsibility. Hey, Loretta, it's Tim. Thanks for joining us. As you look to rates in 2026, Steve said that the rates market, the market itself, priced something in for the Fed. And there can be some conjecture whether that was a lot or a little. But as you look out to next year, and I look at DEC 26 Fed fund futures, we're somewhere around 290, which tells me that the market is certainly expecting a lot more to happen out in the next year. And I guess this feeds into kind of just your own medium-term expectations based upon what we have now, Not what we think the Fed's going to do, but I'm curious how you're viewing this.
27:40Now, I think that, you know, if the Fed can do what it needs to do now and sort of make sure those inflation expectations remain anchored, we're going to see temporary rises as inflation. But they'll come down as the economy digests the price increases. So prices will end up higher price levels, but the inflation rates will come down. And then I think the Fed can start to bring down the Fed funds rate. I don't think they're going to be able to do as much as the market is anticipating. But I think they'll look out and see, OK, we have seen some uptick in unemployment rates and we have seen growth slow down.
28:18And so it would be the reasonable thing to do to start bringing the rate down. That would not be the same reason that they were going to be bringing rates down in the middle of last year where everything is working well and we get the soft landing. It really would be because growth is weakened. The labor market is weakened. And so we'll have to see some change in the Fed funds rate. But I think that is a way off. I don't think it's going to be as soon as the market is anticipating. And I don't think it'll be as much as the market's anticipating. But we don't know because we have to let things play out some more to see what the real effects are.
28:53And we don't even know whether some of the tariffs are going to last at the levels that they've been put on at this point. So there's a lot of uncertainty around all of this, and I think the Fed is right to sort of point out the uncertainty. And, you know, great that we got a good job report today allows them to have that more chance to be strategic and assess things and be patient. Professor Mester, thank you for joining us. Thanks. Loretta Mester. Maika, what do you think? She just said the markets are anticipating too much, too soon. In terms of cuts, yeah, I think so. I mean, look, we have a little bit of a problem here, which is that even ahead of all of this, we really hadn't gotten right down to sort of the inflation levels that would have suggested that a lot of cutting would have been warranted.
29:45So that's the first issue. And of course, the tariffs themselves are inflationary. So that creates, it might be a step function rather than a continuous one. Still, that creates a problem if you want to cut rates. And they're going to be patient because generally what they have reflected, that is to say what the Fed has reflected is they are looking for consecutive data points. So they're not just going to look for a single number and they say, OK, that's good enough. We're now going to cut. They want to see a pattern. They're going to look for a rate of change that they can actually act on. And it seems unlikely that we're going to get that as soon as the market might hope for it.
30:19Coming up is not just stocks. The Trump tariffs hitting the bond market in a big way. But our next guest isn't seeing any lack of demand for treasuries. How he sees the rate route unfolding next. And stocks wrapping up their worst week since the pandemic as investors around the world digest the impact of the president's actions where you can find safety amid this sell-off straight ahead. You're watching Fast Money Live from the Nasdaq Market Site in Times Square. Back right after this.
30:50Let's get back to Steve Leeson with a news alert on updated recession odds from JP Morgan. I thought we just got them yesterday, Steve. Well, we did. Here's what happened. Yesterday, they upped their recession odds to 60 percent. Now, the U.S. economist Mike Ferroli, who we all know well, is basically making a recession his base case. He sees GDP contracting in the third and fourth quarters of this year. He sees the unemployment rate rising to 5.3 percent. Looks like what convinced Mike to do this were the retaliatory tariffs, among other things. It was not just the unexpected tariffs on Thursday, but now they expect retaliatory tariffs.
31:29I think it's going to hit exporters. They think there's a channel by which investment comes down because of these tariffs, and of course, a channel in which consumption, the consumer takes it on the chin because of this. They look around. Now, it's not a big contraction they're looking for. I see here, the first one is minus 0.3%. They do see the unemployment rate rising to 5.3%. What is interesting here, apropos of our discussion just moments ago, is they believe the Federal Reserve will cut beginning in June and cut every month through January of 2026, bringing the funds rate down to 3%. If it is a defined or definite recession, you do have a contraction of the economy, a huge rise to the unemployment rate.
32:12I think that's aggressive, but I don't think it's out of it's a crazy forecast for the Fed to begin cutting. even while they have, again, they have inflation on the upside as well as part of this new forecast, Melissa. Well, recession will cut that trade deficit. That's if you want to find a silver lining. It's the best way. It's the most effective way. If you want to cut the trade deficit, have a recession. It is the most effective way. President Trump's on his way to getting it done. Steve, thank you. Steve Leesman. The market sell-off hitting the bond market to yields on the 10-year falling below 3.9%.
32:48at one point today and closing just under 4%. In mid-January, the 10-year stood at 4.8%. Here to break down where rates go from here, Andy Constant, he's CEO and chief investment officer at Damned Spring Advisors. Andy, great to see you. Thanks for joining us tonight. How much lower do you think the 10-year could go here under this uncertainty scenario? Thanks, Melissa. I think that the 10-year has moved a lot, obviously. And what it is going to take, the last time I was on your show, I said what it's going to take for it to really get much lower is the actual contraction, not just the fear of contraction.
33:25But it seems like we're heading that way. And so we could easily see a funds rate at 3%, like JP Morgan is saying. And I would expect the 10-year to settle around 3.75 in that case. Is that how you are positioning your portfolio? The assumption that there will be not just a growth scare, but that there will actually be a contraction and that we will hit a recession. I mean, what is your sort of baseline? Yeah, I mean, that's been my baseline and that's been my positioning. But prices have changed a lot in the last, you know, in the last six weeks. Nasdaq's down 22.5 % from the highs. The S &P's down 17.5 % from the highs.
34:08That's a big change in price. And the base case of a recession would take stocks further down, most likely. But we're getting to a point where it would have to be a deeper recession to get stocks significantly lower. So I'm fairly neutral at this stage, slightly short. Andy, it's Tim. If I look at French or Italian, dare I say, and certainly German bunds relative to treasuries on a three-, six-month basis, and if I FX heads them, There's not a great pickup to own in U.S. And if I look at European investors, why wouldn't there be a home bias? And is this something that's not a big deal? Is it a big deal?
34:53Do you see more of this happening? And ultimately, again, Treasury Secretary Besant seems to be obsessed with getting the 10-year down. And is it too much too fast? And is it leading to some of these other dynamics, which I think are strong and are only picking up steam? Sure. I mean, I think the first thing is, is the slowdown in the United States is going to be a combination of tariffs and fiscal contraction, which is what has been expected and I think still expected. But in Germany, you have this fiscal expansion, which makes the growth situation much better for Germany, which would mean that the German Bund would actually tend to rise in yield relative to the U.S.
35:40yields. But I think there's this other dynamic, which is the tariffs are going to reduce global imports. And when we import, we hand our dollars to a foreigner. And those foreigners are forced, because of the necessary place to put dollars, is into U.S. dollar assets. And they have. They've bought treasuries, but they've also made foreign direct investment. And like never before, they've also bought U.S. public equities. Now, tariffs are designed to reduce the trade surplus, which doesn't eliminate demand by foreigners for U.S. assets, but does reduce it for what has been fairly consistent demand over the decades.
36:25And that means that our deficit and our assets will have to be absorbed by domestic savers. And if you notice, the U.S. bond market is rallying significantly. So there must be significantly strong demand, which is likely driven by the slowdown, but not driven by foreign hate selling or foreign concern about things like they're making a taxing income for foreigners or certainly not selective defaults. So there is demand for U.S. bonds from foreigners. But Trump is asking for more foreign direct investment while at the same time our trade is giving foreigners less dollars. And if that foreign direct investment comes, it has to come from some money.
37:17And that's likely going to be U.S. equities. You may not be worried about hate selling, Andy, but are you worried about just standing on the sidelines of the next Treasury auction? in terms of China and Japan, the two biggest holders of U.S. treasuries. We're not going to sell. We're just not going to buy in full force anymore. We can do that to you. Well, there is the retaliatory thing, without a doubt. They have to own U.S. assets. They can't just sell. They may not buy treasuries, but they're going to have to keep their U.S. dollars in a bank or in money markets or something, typically bills.
37:55So they may pass on our longer term treasuries. But more likely, what they're going to pass on is holding our stocks. And that's, I think, partly what we've seen lately, particularly when stocks are more vulnerable to an economic slowdown. So I'm more concerned about hate selling of stocks if they choose to do that. The standing on the sidelines, China has been running off its treasury holdings ever since Ukraine, our enemies have passed on U.S. assets, and that is ongoing. But other countries have shown up at auctions, and I expect they will be forced to unless they spend it on FDI. All right.
38:41Andy, thank you. Great to see you. Andy Constant, Dam Spring. Pleasure. Mike Coe, how do you digest all that? Well, you know, it's interesting. In 2003, Warren Buffett talked about this foreign investment as a result of trade deficits issue, and the number was$2.5 trillion at that time, and it's now$18 trillion. Now, not all of that, of course, is in US treasuries or all of it in US stocks, but there's a lot of money there. And of course, if you curb that inflow, and it's interesting to notice, we had record trade deficits for the first couple of months in anticipation of tariffs. And so that net investment effect basically was very heavy in the first quarter, and it's going to be very light in this one.
39:23So, you know, that does take away another potential buyer. And I think that is, you know, an additional risk and another reason why I don't think there's really a put under the market right here. I think that's the main point. I mean, these are all things that would argue for continuing to de-risk and be careful. But what an expression, hate selling. I mean, think about what a strange world we're in now. Maybe against your own economic interest or self-benefit. Let me sell it because I'm angry. It's weird stuff. Coming up, stocks wrapping up their worst week since the pandemic. So where can investors find some safety?
39:53Is cash looking like a great place to hide? We'll hit that next. And don't miss our live one-hour special CNBC special report this Sunday, digging deeper into the tariffs impact on the U.S. and global markets at 7 p.m. Eastern time right here on CNBC. Fast Money is back at 2.
40:19Stocks getting slammed again as President Trump's tariffs continue to shock global markets. The Dow dropping over 2 ,200 points today and for the first time ever, falling more than 1 ,500 points in back-to-back days. The S &P 500 down a staggering 6 % today, wiping on more than$5 trillion in value in two days, with 84 % of the S &P now in correction territory, more than 60 % in bear market territory. The Nasdaq, meanwhile, also dropping nearly 6%, putting its weekly loss at 10%. Commodities getting hit hard as well. Oil at its lowest level since April of 2021. Copper seeing its worst day since 2008.
40:54And not to be all gloom and doom here, crypto one space bucking the sell up. Bitcoin actually hovering near the 84 ,000 level. Ethereum, Solana, Ripple also higher. And with this week's market sell off, we wanted to look at a couple of places where investors could possibly find some shelter. Sharon Epperson joined us now to break down the safety trade. Sharon. Well, you know, Melissa, for many investors, building cash reserves is really top of mind. I've talked to several financial planners, including members of the CNBC Financial Advisor Council, about safe havens where people should put money now.
41:27And here's some of the recommendations. Money market funds are an important mix in retirement and investment accounts if you plan to retire in the next five years. Top money market funds from JP Morgan, Invesco and Schwab are currently yielding 4 percent or more. Adding cash to high-yield savings account for emergencies, as well as a buffer to help you cover high everyday expenses due to tariffs, that's another strategy. The national average savings account right now is less than 5 percent, sorry, is less than 1 percent for a yield there, but top yields at some online banks like Bask and Synchrony are 4 percent or more.
42:02Now, to increase your emergency reserve, another consideration may be to open a home equity line of credit at a bank or credit union. You generally don't pay anything if you don't use it. But the peace of mind of having extra access to extra cash is priceless. For more strategies, subscribe to my Money 101 newsletter series. There are strategies there about navigating these uncertain times. You can scan the QR code there or go to cbc.com slash money 101. Boy, do we need that right now. Sharon, in terms of the money market accounts at 4 % versus some of these online savings accounts that are 4%, what are the pros and cons of is there a difference to holding either?
42:38Well, the money market funds for your investment accounts, you know, are mutual funds. And so there is not the same FDIC insurance that you would get from a bank savings account, even an online bank savings account. So that's something to consider. But people want to make sure that they can sleep at night. So a lot of folks may be moving some of their money into money market funds within a 401k or within their investment portfolio. And in fact, over the last several weeks, we have seen people who normally are, you know, set it and forget it with their 401ks, moving some of that money from equities.
43:08to fixed income and to money markets. We were just talking about the precipitous drop in rates in just the past week, Sharon. So if you're on the fence, you're looking at opening a CD, a high-yield CD, do it now. Yeah, do it now. Absolutely do it now because you want to lock in that rate for a wave of six months or a year. And if you don't need that money during that period of time, it absolutely makes sense. I mean, as you're looking at what the major average is, how much they've fallen in a day, and know that you can actually make that money for your money just sitting there, it's kind of a great push to make sure that you're putting your money in savings in those CDs or building a CD ladder or something like that.
43:47And there are no penalty CDs, too. Yes, exactly. Absolutely. Sharon, thank you so much, Sharon Epperson. Carter has got some charts here because we want to take a look at where we are headed, where we can find some safety. Where do you go? Sure. So rather than the traditional soap and cereal staples or utilities or REITs, Let's look at insurance stocks. Big names that everyone knows, AIG, Chubb, Allstate, Prudential, MetLife, and so forth. Here are some of the companies in this ETF. Its symbol is K-I-E. And if we look at, we have a few tables and charts, but if we look at this ETF, it captures a broad swath of these very prominent names.
44:27And you can see on a year-to-date performance, this is what relative performance is all about, meaning alpha is the simple definition that you're outperforming other choices. And here is the chart of the KIE. It's a beautiful uptrend. But most importantly is the final. You'll see a two-panel chart here. The KIE has not made a new high, and yet it's making shocking big relative highs to the market. That is a safe haven in my estimation. And yes, you can do utilities or staples or maybe some health care. But this is a great place to if one wants to not postpone all new buying. Mike, how do you feel about insurance?
45:08Where do you find, quote unquote, safety? You know, I mean, I know that Carter was kind of dismissing it as a suitably sized pool of liquidity. But I do think that utilities actually seem pretty interesting. Consider a name like Vistra. You know, this was a high flying A.I. play not that long ago. trading around 16 and a half times full year earnings for this year and probably closer to 14 next year's numbers. So these are the kinds of things. And look, we're offering advice to the people who are watching the show, not the whole wide world. So it's a$30 billion company. It doesn't need to be able to absorb everything.
45:46I don't know. Tim's got some big wallets. Utilities are inherently domestic businesses, Tim. You'd mentioned that the other day, And I thought that was a really interesting way of looking at it. If you're looking at something that's truly insulated, maybe that is the way to go. Certainly. And if you think about where some of the cost inputs on energy may be coming down. I like utilities. I like utilities a lot. I think you could be overweight. I thought you could be overweight going into this. I also think telco and, as you know, make international great again. There's some telephone companies across Europe like Telefonica, Trades in New York, TEF.
46:23There's a real handsome dividend, a really solid balance sheet. I think looking at these trades, and I go back to this global dynamic, I think if you're looking at utilities and telephone companies across Europe, I think you're going to have a currency play in addition to a core play. They've been defensive. Look how they've traded over the last couple of days. I think they will be. Yeah, and I think people out there will think, oh, these are all interesting ideas. But Sharon Epperson comes along with a 4 % savings account idea, CD, money market fund. And that seems a lot more readily available and attractive to everybody else.
46:58I mean, depending on where you are. Right. And if you look at yesterday, we had the second, I read a quote today, second largest outperformance of staples over discretionary for the last 20 years. So to Carter's point, when you're buying cereals and you're buying staples and you're buying companies like that, you have to take a step back and say, how long do they really outperform what you're trying to outperform? But in this day, you're just looking for preservation of capital. Right. I mean, if you need that money in the next six months or so for whatever, for a college payment, for whatever you're buying, then you need to preserve that capital.
47:31And also, in terms of staples, a lot of people, soap and cereal way back then, they only sold the soap and cereal in the United States. But now soap and cereal is an international business. That's right. So you're much more exposed to other factors. Yes, to the currency problem. All right. Up next, final trades.
48:21We'll be right back. in correction territory, more than 60 percent in bear market territory. The Nasdaq, meanwhile, also dropping nearly six percent, putting its weekly loss at 10 percent. Commodities getting hit hard as well. Oil at its lowest level since April of 2021. Copper seeing its worst day since 2008. And not to be all gloom and doom here, crypto one space bucking the sell off. Bitcoin actually hovering near the 84 ,000 level. Ethereum, Solana, Ripple also higher. And with this week's market sell-off, we wanted to look at a couple places where investors could possibly find some shelter.
48:55Sharon Epperson joined us now to break down the safety trade. Sharon. Well, you know, Melissa, for many investors, building cash reserves is really top of mind. I've talked to several financial planners, including members of the CNBC Financial Advisor Council, about safe havens where people should put money now. And here's some of the recommendations. Money market funds are an important mix in retirement and investment accounts if you plan to retire in the next five years. Top money market funds from JP Morgan, Invesco and Schwab are currently yielding 4 % or more. Adding cash to high yield savings account for emergencies, as well as a buffer to help you cover high everyday expenses due to tariffs.
49:32That's another strategy. The national average savings account right now is less than 5%, sorry, is less than 1 % for a yield there. But top yields at some online banks like Bask and Synchrony are 4 % or more. Now to increase your emergency reserve. Another consideration may be to open a home equity line of credit at a bank or credit union. You generally don't pay anything if you don't use it. But the peace of mind of having extra access to extra cash is priceless. For more strategies, subscribe to my Money 101 newsletter series. There are strategies there about navigating these uncertain times.
50:07You can scan the QR code there or go to cbc.com slash money 101. Boy, do we need that right now. Sharon, And in terms of the money market accounts at 4 % versus some of these online savings accounts that are 4%, what are the pros and cons of is there a difference to holding either? Well, the money market funds for your investment accounts, you know, are mutual funds. And so there is not the same FDIC insurance that you would get from a bank savings account, even an online bank savings account. So that's something to consider. But people want to make sure that they can sleep at night. So a lot of folks may be moving some of their money into money market funds within a 401K or within their investment portfolio.
50:43And in fact, over the last several weeks, we have seen people who normally are, you know, set it and forget it with their 401ks, moving some of that money from equities to fixed income and to money markets. We were just talking about the precipitous drop in rates in just the past week, Sharon. So if you're on the fence, you're looking at opening a CD, a high-yield CD, do it now. Yeah, do it now. Absolutely do it now. Because you want to lock in that rate for a wave of six months or a year. And if you don't need that money during that period of time, it absolutely makes sense. I mean, as you're looking at what the major average is, how much they've fallen in a day, and know that you can actually make that money for your money just sitting there, it's kind of a great push to make sure that you're putting your money in savings in those CDs or building a CD ladder or something like that.
51:31And there are no penalty CDs, too. Yes, exactly. Absolutely. Sharon, thank you so much, Sharon Epperson. Carter has got some charts here because we want to take a look at where we are headed. where we can find some safety. Where do you go? So rather than the traditional soap and cereal staples or utilities or REITs, let's look at insurance stocks. Big names that everyone knows, AIG, Chubb, Allstate, Prudential, MetLife, and so forth. Here are some of the companies in this ETF. Its symbol is K-I-E. And if we look at, we have a few tables and charts, but if we look at this ETF, it captures a broad swath of these very prominent names.
52:11And you can see on a year-to-date performance, this is what relative performance is all about, meaning alpha is the simple definition that you're outperforming other choices. And here is the chart of the KIE. It's a beautiful uptrend. But most importantly is the final. You'll see a two-panel chart here. The KIE has not made a new high, and yet it's making shocking big relative highs to the market. That is a safe haven in my estimation. And yes, you can do utilities or staples or maybe some health care. But this is a great place to, if one wants to, not postpone all new buying. Mike, how do you feel about insurance?
52:52Where do you find, quote unquote, safety? You know, I mean, I know that Carter was kind of dismissing it as a suitably sized pool of liquidity. But I do think that utilities actually seem pretty interesting. Consider a name like Vistra. You know, this was a high flying A.I. play not that long ago. It's trading around 16 and a half times full year earnings for this year and, you know, probably closer to 14 next year's numbers. So, you know, this these are the kinds of things. And look, we're offering advice to the people who are watching the show, not the whole wide world. So, you know, it's a 30 billion dollar company.
53:27It doesn't need to be able to absorb everything. I don't know. Tim's got some big wallets. Utilities are inherently domestic businesses, Tim. You had mentioned that the other day, and I thought that was a really interesting way of looking at it. If you're looking at something that's truly insulated, maybe that is the way to go. Certainly. And if you think about where some of the cost inputs on energy may be coming down, I like utilities. I like utilities a lot. I think you could be overweight. I thought you could be overweight going into this. I also think telco and, as you know, make international great again.
54:02There's some telephone companies across Europe like Telefonica, Trades in New York, TEF. There's a real handsome dividend, a really solid balance sheet. I think looking at these trades, and I go back to this global dynamic, I think if you're looking at utilities and telephone companies across Europe, I think you're going to have a currency play in addition to a core play. They've been defensive. Look how they've traded over the last couple of days. I think they will be. Yeah, and I think people out there will think, oh, these are all interesting ideas. But Sharon Epperson comes along with a 4 % savings account idea, CD, money market fund.
54:36And that seems a lot more readily available than everybody else. I mean, depending on where you are. Right. And if you look at yesterday, we had the second, I read a quote today, second largest outperformance of staples over discretionary for the last 20 years. So to Carter's point, when you're buying cereals and you're buying staples and you're buying companies like that, you have to take a step back and say, how long do they really outperform what you're trying to outperform? But in this day, you're just looking for preservation of capital. Right. I mean, if you need that money in the next six months or so for whatever, for a college payment, for whatever you're buying, then you need to preserve that capital.
55:15And also, in terms of staples, a lot of people, soap and cereal way back then, they only sold the soap and cereal in the United States. But now soap and cereal is an international business. That's right. So you're much more exposed to other factors. Yes, to the currency problem. All right. Up next, final trades.
55:42time for the final trade carter braxton worth there's nothing to be lost by postponing all new buying so final trade is keep your cash tim seymour look at european telcos again telepronica six and a half percent dividend yield defensive but i also think thematic and i think there's others over there to follow. Mike Coe. Yeah, XLU's got a 3 % div yield. And if you want a secular growth story, Vistra. Steve Grasso. Semis are oversold. I'm giving the new CEO a shot. Intel bought it today. By the way, it's the last day for Emily Glass, a member of our team. So good luck to Emily. Thank you for watching Fast Money.
56:20Mad Money with Jim Kramer starts right now.
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From the publisher
Stocks plummeted to close out the week, as global markets reel from President Trump’s tariff plans. The sectors seeing the worst of the pain, and where you can find safety amid the turmoil. And it’s not just equities. The bond market dropping as a trade war ignites. Why our next guest isn’t seeing a lack of demand in treasurys, and how he sees the rate rout unfolding.
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