Treasury intervention sparks rate relief... And Moderna’s cancer moonshot 8/19/26

21:05Mazda has been named Consumer Reports' safest new car brand. It starts with our approach. Every Mazda comes standard with proactive safety features, so you're more aware of what's around you, more focused on the road ahead, and ready before problems ever start. Mazda. More of what matters most to you. Go to MazdaUSA.com to learn more. Consumer Reports does not endorse or promote any product. Say you always wanted to have a backyard oasis. Here's the thing. If you get smart with your money, you can do things like that. With Empower, you can start making the most out of your money so you can go out and live a little.

21:44Isn't that why we work so hard? To have some fun with our money? Like treating yourself to something special or spontaneously doing something extra for a loved one. So use Empower and get good at money so you can be a little bad. Join their 20 million customers today at Empower.com. Not an Empower client paid or sponsored. Ever finish your to-do list just in time for three more things to get added? That's what managing technology can feel like. There's always another ticket, another update, another thing demanding attention. That's why CDW's here. We help run, optimize, and evolve complex IT environments so your team can focus on moving the business forward.

22:21We've been there and solved that. When operations stop getting in the way, it's actually pretty amazing. We configure, optimize, and deliver the tech that runs business. CDW. Make amazing happen. Welcome back to Fast Money. OpenAI CFO setting a timeline for the company to go public. That is a report from the Wall Street Journal shows the AI giant saw disappointing growth in Q2 compared to rival Anthropic. Kate Rooney's got more on this. Kate. Hey, Melissa. So I did get some new details from an OpenAI employee all hands meeting this afternoon in San Francisco. From what I'm hearing, CFO of OpenAI, Sarah Fryer, telling employees that OpenAI will, quote, be a public company in 2027 or sooner.

23:04This is according to two sources who were in that room, attended the meeting earlier. Fryer, from what I'm hearing, did mention Anthropic's rival in AI said that there is a chance Anthropic does go public maybe in September. She told employees, from what I'm hearing, that's okay. We are running our own race. She said the IPO is not a finish line. It's a milestone, called it another fundraise, and then pointed out that they raised$122 billion back in March, said that gives us flexibility. We will be a public company in 2027. She said we may go sooner if our business continues to, quote, inflect.

23:39But either way, we will do it on our own timeline. She also shared some new quarter-to-date revenue numbers. So revenue run rate up about 35%, pointed out enterprise revenue up 50 % in the quarter. Codex, which is the enterprise side of the business, the coding side, 20 million users up 3.5x, according to sources. This does coincide with OpenAI's latest model launching this summer and some of the momentum. And it does, Mel, as you mentioned, come as the journal reported earlier on some of the second quarter numbers from earlier this year, noting widening losses at the AI giant and then slower revenue growth, at least compared to Anthropic.

24:16All right, Kate, thank you. Kate Rooney. Slower revenue growth than Anthropic and slower quarter-on-quarter revenue growth than a Palantir as well, than a CoreWeave, than a Micron. So how do you see OpenAI right now? One thing I'll say is, and we've been very skeptical as we talk about it, and there's not been a whole heck of a lot of transparency. We think about it through the lens of their customers, through their suppliers, through all that sort of stuff. And this has been one where the sentiment has just gotten so bad. I'm looking at my inbox right now. Gary Marcus, who was on the show with us a couple weeks ago, had a post out on Substack.

24:49OpenAI's unraveling has begun. It was another one from, I think, this guy Ed Citron, who was on the network like a week ago talking about what happens if OpenAI dies. I mean, like, there's just a lot of this going on. And the one thing is very clear. We've never seen companies grow revenue this quickly in such a disruptive manner. And I think the really the thing that switched over the last year was really this anthropic narrative as it relates to enterprise. And OpenAI was too levered towards consumer. They're clearly catching up in enterprise. The one thing I'll say about Anthropic, over the weekend, there was a lot of folks talking on the Twitters and all this other stuff that they are going to maybe hit$200 billion in revenue by the end of 2027.

25:25This growth rate that they're talking about at$65 billion is not going to get you to$200 billion. And so that sort of thing. So I think that some of the bloom has come off the rose just a little bit on both of them over the last couple weeks. Steve Eisman was here, I think it was a week ago or so, when I was not here. But I did look at the interview and he did say something to the effect of the one thing that he's worried about in the AI trade is that so many companies are reliant on the success of OpenAI and Anthropic. And once if something goes wrong with either of the two, then that really sort of detracts from that trade.

25:58And here we are. Are we at that point, do you think, Stu, or not yet? Well, I mean, like the whole discussion of basically circular financing and sort of circular revenues, I think, is real. You know, to Dan's point, I think the enterprise is the key for open AI because they're viewed as a little bit behind on that side. And if they show real progress coming up there, it's a huge positive. But I think everything we've described just shows how invested all of Wall Street and all of these companies are in the success of these companies. And that's a very hard thing to bet against, given the amount of capital they have.

26:28As a private company, the microscope is not nearly as, what's the word I'm looking for, extensive or not nearly as intrusive. It doesn't have as much magnification. Magnification as being a publicly traded company and so much rides on the valuation of this company. And, you know, as a publicly traded company, a lot of things can happen to knock down that valuation. If the whole thing is built on said valuation, it could get very interesting very quickly. And speaking of public companies, I mean, Samsung's operating profit was up eighteen hundred percent year over year. So, I mean, this is a public company.

26:59It's first of all, it's being driven up by the open A.I. hype. Don't get me wrong. I'm just saying there are places that are growing a lot faster than this. Fifty percent enterprise at this stage of where they are. It's hardly exciting. There's a lot more fast money to come. Here's what's coming up next. Another huge partnership inside Marvell's deal with Google to make custom silicon and why the hyperscaler is chipping in with a big stock buy. Plus, jab. Well done. The blowout cancer vaccine results from Moderna and Merck. why Wall Street is taking notice, and how it could change the future of disease treatment.

27:38You're watching Fast Money, live from the NASDAQ Market Side in Times Square. We're back right after this. Say you always wanted to have a backyard oasis. Here's the thing. If you get smart with your money, you can do things like that. With Empower, you can start making the most out of your money so you can go out and live a little. Isn't that why we work so hard? To have some fun with our money? Like treating yourself to something special or spontaneously doing something extra for a loved one. So use Empower and get good at money. So you can be a little bad. Join their 20 million customers today at Empower.com.

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28:49You know what's not a great use of time? Getting data ready for AI. That's why IT leaders turn to CDW. We help unify data and govern it. Building the foundation for your AI and agents to deliver results. Because when your data is ready, AI stops being an experiment and becomes an advantage. We configure, optimize, and deliver the tech that runs business. CDW. Make amazing happen.

29:19Welcome back to Fast Money. Marvell shares climbing nearly 10 % today after agreeing to let Google buy up to$12.2 billion in Marvell shares as part of a partnership to develop custom chips. The move showcasing Google's efforts to diversify suppliers beyond Broadcom. Marvell shares are now up 180 % so far this year. Marvell or Alphabet, who's the big winner in this arrangement? Well, it's Marvell, at least because not only from a valuation perspective, it's, you know, they're being lifted higher. This is a demand story. This is a validation. for Google, though, it's a fascinating time. And again, it is all of these hyperscalers going almost vertically integrated and trying to do this stuff internally.

30:04And I don't think it's great for Google. I think Tim is right on Marvell. I mean, look at the move it had to the downside. I think it went from a little north of 300. I think it'll trade a little way down to$1.85. And now the bounce actually does make sense. Valuation definitely stretched, but this is a world that in this sector doesn't seem to care about valuation. So I think Tim is right. Marvell is the play. Yeah, and this goes to Stu's point about circular financing, which we've been not the same, but how they're all sort of intertwined here. Yeah, I think the broader thing is that, OK, so you're going to start using them to design your chips and you're going to invest in the company and you're going to pull some money away from NVIDIA, but then NVIDIA is going to invest in open.

30:40I mean, it's just getting really confusing, right? And so it's not just the circular financing, and we haven't even talked about NVIDIA here, but this is the thing that actually puts pressure on those mid-70s margins that NVIDIA has been able, as a guy would say, enjoy over the last couple of years. And we've been talking about this. At some point, they're going to get compressed a little bit. This is the point, just all of that competition, and to Tim's point, about vertically integrating and not having so much pressure to use NVIDIA's GPUs and getting away from CUDA. That was the thing. We kept on hearing Kuda, Kuda, Kuda, the secret sauce.

31:14Well, it doesn't seem to be as big of a deal for a lot of these hyperscalers as we thought a couple years ago. Look, you know, a lot of the earnings this year have actually come from these companies writing up their equity stakes, right? I mean, NVIDIA is obviously making chips and earning a 75 % margin, but they're kind of a PE shop as well. You know, when you look at all the stuff they've invested in, it's pretty crazy. Koda was a Zeppelin album, right? Yeah, it was. We're talking about Kuda. I know. All right, I just want to be clear. Is it your last album? You're at home. Anyway, coming up, a shot at a cure.

31:40The trial results at more than double. Moderna shares today and lifted partner Merck to a record high. Mizzou host Jared Hulls will join us with his diagnosis for all the big moves when Fast Money returns.

31:54Welcome back to Fast Money. Stocks stopping a three-day losing streak. The Dow adding 120 points. S &P ticking back above$7 ,700 and the Nasdaq fractionally higher. Paramount's guidance rising a percent and a half today for its 14th straight day of gains. Its longest winning streak on record shares up more than 30 percent over that period. Steel Dynamics, meantime, dropping 7.5 percent, putting in its worst day since April of last year. This one reports the U.S. will have tariffs on Canadian exports of steel and aluminum to 25 percent. And CME Group dropping late in the day after President Trump said he is working with regulators to bring hyperliquid, the perpetual futures exchange, to the U.S.

32:33CME Group down 1.7 percent. Meantime, the stock story of the day, Moderna surging 177 percent after its personalized cancer vaccine developed with Merck, showed promise in its first late stage trial. Moderna clocking in its best day ever by a mile. While Merck closed at a record high. For more, let's bring in Jared Holes. He's a Muho health care sector specialist. Jared, great to have you with us. Thank you. And obviously, this is squeezy. There's a big short interest in shares of Moderna. But it also shows that mRNA is a viable technology outside of respiratory diseases. Correct. Yeah, totally.

33:07I mean, 50 million shares short to begin the day. You knew this was going to happen. The magnitude, I think, surprised everyone. I mean, to be up as much as it was today, still pretty shocking. But yeah, I mean, this is what the company has been talking about, that there is a pipeline, that there are therapeutic opportunities outside of the covid vaccine. We're finally seeing proof. Top line data. Excellent. We'll see what happens when they show the full set later this year. But you have to give them credit. Do we have any insight on how this will be manufactured and how it can be brought to scale since it's a personalized vaccine?

33:41That's the thing. It does take a lot of human capital to make this thing work. You have to sort of like splice and slice the tumor in a certain way so that the vaccine can get to it. So there is a lot of human capital necessary. I know all the life science tool stocks went up today because the street believes that they're going to be big beneficiaries. I'm not so sure. I think this is the AI capability in the life science space. I feel like that might have been overly traumatized today, but we'll see what happens. Moving Merck wasn't nearly as dramatic, but it was significant. All time high in Merck.

34:17Does that extend or does it change the patent cliff for Keytruda? I don't think it changes it. I think they've done, what, five deals over the past few years that get them most of the way through. Now they have another product here that could be fairly sizable. We'll see if it works in different tumor types. It takes the pressure off for sure. And to be trading near, at or near an all-time high, I mean, it gives them more ammunition to do other deals that they want. I think we're going to see plenty more activity from Merck and others through the rest of the year. When are we going to get results in terms of testing this in other tumors, other kinds of tumors, lung or pancreas or what have you?

34:58Yeah. So Moderna and Merck are working on several different tumor types as we speak. I think that data set or those data sets are 2027. BioNTech is working on bladder cancer and some others. I think that might be the most interesting way to play this data set because you have a stock that's incredibly cheap on almost every metric that's working on a similar vaccine profile for different tumor types. But I think both stocks could still go higher. So it brings me to a place in terms of oncology that I just feel like the market is kind of ripe for rewarding companies that are now showing some progress.

35:35Can you talk about that? I mean, J &J is getting a lot of credit. That stock's breaking up for a couple of different reasons, but I think their exposure in oncology is part of that. Yeah, I think so much of it is based on the fact that the companies are growing and sort of operating through major patent cliffs. So J &J has already sort of gotten through potentially the worst of it. And so the coast is clear for the next four or five years, which is, I think, basically the time horizon where the street wants to see positive revenue growth. And I think Merck has finally gotten to the point where the street's comfortable that they can probably do the same.

36:10Lilly obviously doesn't have that issue. That's why the stock has been parabolic. I think to your point, though, oncology pipelines and also immunology have really, you know, gotten this group to a whole new level. Especially for the politics, too. Immunology, you know, Biogen, Gilead. Incredible. I mean, what was so interesting about the story today and the impact on the sector was the impact on the sector. I mean, this seemed like a very stock-specific story, and yet the entire sector lifted. And I don't think that it's a coincidence. I mean, yes, there was a broadening market trade today. Yes, that is on.

36:41That's for sure. But at the same time, the move in health care stocks has been astronomical. Yeah, I think going back to the beginning of June, health care has now outperformed the S &P by 17 or 18 percent. Right. So two and a half months in one of the I think it might be by definition, the biggest correction versus the S &P to the upside we've ever seen in health care. So it's been medical devices, life science tools like the Danaher's thermos. Most of the pharma group is at an all time high. Right. Lily, Merck, Amgen, Gilead, like they're trading incredibly well. Biotech has obviously had its best run on record.

37:18And so, yeah, I think it's fun flows. Obviously, the tech space has been a little bit fickle for the first time in a while. That's helped. And then, you know, a lot of the clinical progress in M &A trade has helped farm and biotech a tremendous amount. Jared, thanks. Thank you. Good to see you. Jared Holz and Mizuho coming up a red hot robotics IPO. Humanoid robot maker Unitree making a blockbuster trading debut in China. how the global battle for bot supremacy is shaping up next. That's when he's back right after this. As America celebrates its 250th anniversary, CNBC spotlights the companies that rose with the nation and continue to shape its future.

37:59Our entire nation is built upon this spirit, this spirit of entrepreneurship, taking on the impossible and making it possible. For us, we persisted for 25 years before we turned a profit. And that could only happen in America, where people would invest in you and believe in you. Regeneron, we started it in an apartment, mainly because garages were too expensive in New York City. There was just a handful of us in the beginning. We're now 15 ,000 strong, operating in countries all around the world. But most important, we're reaching millions of patients. Trained as a physician and as a scientist, I could help people individually.

38:41But to be part of an effort where we could discover drugs that could make a difference, you could operate at a scale that was almost unimaginable. And I tried to imagine that. In the early days, Regeneron struggled. But in many people's eyes, we failed for two and a half decades. That persistence, that belief and the opportunity to continue the dream is what allowed us to get to success.

39:12Welcome back to Fast Money. China's Unitree Robotics making a huge debut on Shanghai's star market today. Those shares closing a whopping 460 percent higher. But it comes amid growing concerns about China's lead in humanoid robots. Eunice Yun has got all the details. Eunice. Melissa, Unitry has raised$900 million to advance humanoid robots that even rival Elon Musk has described as impressive. Investors like that Unitry shipped 5 ,500 robots last year versus Tesla's zero for Optimus. It's profitable and it has big backers, tech names like DeepSeek and government-backed entities. The retail portion was 5 ,500 times subscribed.

39:53The company is in a sector that Beijing considers strategic. Stock regulators have also signaled support for more tech IPOs. But Unitree's trailing P.E. ratio closed in on 1 ,200, and its earnings report for the first half of the year showed net profits down 19 percent. And that's due to heavy R &D spending, just to stay ahead. Back to you. Eunice, thanks. Eunice Yoon in Beijing. And obviously, this is probably the first, the only benchmark for the humanoid robot portion of Elon Musk's business. So it sort of gives us an idea as to how to value that part of the business for Tesla. Yeah, and we've already seen this before with EVs, right?

40:33And so Elon had such a big lead, as you think about just obviously here in the U.S. And China never had the ability to sell cars here, but they're selling them all over the world. And when you think about market share and even how many EVs of Tesla were made in China, and then they just got blown away. So you think about humanoid robots. I mean, obviously, Elon is ahead of the curve on all of this sort of stuff. But for China, you know, it's backed by the government. Why? They have a huge demographic problem, right? And I know that sounds ridiculous, but humanoid robots, the first application, is going to be working in factories, right?

41:04And if China is the factory to the world, or at least it has been in the past, this is a really important initiative. I know it sounds like sci-fi stuff, but obviously investors are buying into it. This and defense is another application which is going to be huge for China. I mean, but this gets to the point in terms of the EV market, now basically dominated by Chinese EVs around the world, ex-US, obviously, and humanoid robots, the same. Unitry has 31 % global market share. The biggest competitor or the biggest market share owner is Agibot, which is a Shanghai-based company as well. So to combine, they've got 70 percent global market share.

41:42So China is dominating in physical AI, in all these sort of leading edge technologies where it can undercut the U.S. in price. It ships it out to the world. And then you get hooked on this technology at a cheaper price. Look, there's no question that the arms race in tech with China is out of control. And China is dominating certain parts of it. But investors, this was listed on the China Star 50, which is essentially their high-tech leading-edge technology index, which, by the way, you can get over here in an ETF. I'll let you look that one up. But it's a fascinating place to be investing because we know that there's an arms race going on out there.

42:23And we know China is so far ahead in certain parts of nanotechnology. So I think that's kind of the story here. It doesn't terrify you? It does, actually. Unitry, by the way, is on the DOD blacklist. So the government can't procure these robots, but these robots can be sold to the consumer market. And then, right, yes, exactly. And what happens, I'll use the word infiltration. I mean, I don't know if that's the right word or not, but you see what's going on here. And I'm still waiting for Sarah Connor to show. Would you take on one of those robots in the boxing ring? Hell yeah, well, you know I would.

42:54I'd love to see that. Of course I would. Let's see if we can get that going. I mean, Michael Biehn did it. It worked out fine for him. I literally would be dead in under a minute. If that was programmed to kill. I'm just saying, if it was programmed to kill. Defense is a huge application. You'd be dead in a minute. They make dogs. Robot war dogs. And that doesn't scare you. Anyway. It should scare you. That's the point. Coming up, a new kind of airmail. Amazon's latest push to expand drone deliveries and a look at the growing competition taking to the skies. More Fast Money in 2.

43:29Welcome back to Fast Money. Amazon announcing today it plans to expand its drone delivery services to nearly 500 cities and towns this year. That's a six-fold increase from its current footprint. The company saying in a blog post it plans to launch the service soon in Chicago, Syracuse, Cleveland, Atlanta, and Boise, and aims to make one million deliveries in 2026. Wow. Not Morristown, New Jersey? They're not doing that there by popular demand? Drop off Guy's robot. There's something called an automobile. You plant your ass in the car. Whoa, whoa, whoa. Why'd you have to do that? Well, you drive to like Target or Walmart or Qdoba.

44:07You don't need the drones flying over your head to drop off your packages. Anyway, this is just Amazon expanding its logistics network, right, in competition with a UPS and a FedEx, I would think, Tim. Yeah, and I'll trade UPS then because I think working through the UPS contract is something that's been a headwind, but ultimately has, I think, been a tailwind. It's been about that restructuring at UPS. I think ground and freight and margin are a story there. So I like that story. I like UPS. And if you're a Dow theorist, it's not a bad time to be investing in transports. You're a Dow theorist.

44:41I am a Dow. I was there with Charles Dow at the time. UPS valuation. Look, if FedEx deserves a valuation of that gap, I think UPS probably does as well. The turnaround's in play. Bearish to bullish reversal. Double bottom. I like UPS here as well. You know, physical AI. We were just talking about it. I mean, this is physical AI. And I think that if you get away from a lot of components, that sort of thing, and you start thinking about where's the next play, it probably isn't physical AI. I don't think you can look at Amazon and say that's the play. But there's going to be a lot of opportunities, I think, in and around the space going forward.

45:10Amazon, by the way, makes its own drone. I looked this up. I was curious. But, you know, where do they get all their components? They are very tight-lipped about the supply chain. I was wondering because in their Zoox robotic taxi, the LiDAR, Hesai LiDAR, which is LiDAR from China. Which is also a national security issue. All of these drones that are overtaking this whole concept of asymmetric warfare, where we're sending billion-dollar interceptors for$30 ,000 drones, all the parts that go into those drones for the most part, authenticators, all this sort of stuff, all made in China. Sounds like a documentary in the making.

45:43Well, I did focus on automotive LIDAR. Most of it does come from China. I mean, no one can reference automotive LIDAR like you. Like Melissa. I mean, that is... All right. Make fun of me. No, I mean, I'm truly impressed. I barely even know what we're talking about anymore. I don't either. Up next, Final Trades.

46:14Final trade time. Stu Kaiser. I'm going to go buy SMH ahead of NVIDIA. Great to have you, Stu. Timbo. Great having you, Stu. As Carter pointed out, XLE breaking out. I'm with him. Stan. Yeah, I think the fever broke in the SMH, but also in the DRAM. There's an ETF that covers it. I think you sell DRAM on rallies. Mets are the hottest team in baseball since the trade deadline. And I've got to tell you, Mel, the next couple weeks are going to be really important for the market. it's going to be great having your steady hand. Invidia earnings. It's going to be so exciting. What would we do without it?

46:47I'm not sure what we'll do. Or we would do, I should say. Inns med milms. I'll be here tomorrow. Thanks for watching Fast. Mad Money with Jim Kramer starts right now.

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