Turning Sour On Apple… And Single Stock Volatility On The Rise 1/8/26

19:57And a bipartisan group of senators they met today, they're discussing a two-year extension of the tax credits, including some income caps to ensure that the tax credits only go to middle and lower income Americans, as well as some other things to address waste, fraud and abuse. Of course, something hugely watched by the health care and the insurance industry right now, as far as whether or not these tax credits will continue, because millions of Americans have already seen their health care premiums double with the end of these credits. Lawmakers say they think that if they can get a solution by the time that January is over, they can reopen the exchanges, redo enrollment.

20:32But they still have some sticking points to go, including whether they should be using federal funds for abortion and whether there needs to be language in the bill clarifying that. So more work to go, but certainly some big momentum coming out of the House with this vote.

20:44Tim Seymour:Melissa? Emily, thank you. Emily Wilkins. And regardless of where you stand on whether or not ACA tax credit should exist, blah, blah, blah. This is good news in terms of the shock that will be avoided to many American households who face their bill for health care going up astronomically, basically overnight, if this didn't get passed. 100 percent. And with midterms coming up, it's a political stance that would be intolerable to let that much of an increase go through. Watch your UNH, watch Centene, watch CVS, watch Molina. All of those names are the ones that benefit the most. Their stocks should see a rise.

21:20Tim Seymour:All right, coming up, shares of GM getting hit after hours. The latest charges taking a bite out of the bottom line. That's next. Plus, harvesting some gains in ag stocks. The name's continuing to grow and where our traders see the space heading next. Don't go anywhere. Fast Money's back in two.

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23:12Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. A news alert on GM. Shares lower if the company announced a$7 billion charge on its pullback from EVs and its China restructuring. Phil Obeau's got the details on this. Hey, Phil. Melissa, not a huge surprise given the fact that General Motors forecasted that it would have a series of EV charges going in to 2026. That came out a couple of months ago when they took a charge for the third quarter. Well, here's what they're doing for the fourth quarter. And all of this spelled out in an AK that dropped after hours. Total of$7.1 billion in charges for the fourth quarter.

23:43$6 billion will be pre-tax EV impairment charges as they write down assets, deal with contracts for their EV business that is winding down, or at least scaling down. Not winding down, scaling down from what it was. China operations, as they continue to restructure in that country, another$1.1 billion in charges. And as I mentioned, as you take a look at shares of General Motors, they forecasted this back at the time of taking charges for the third quarter. And they said again today there will be more EV charges in 2025. They took$1.6 billion in the third quarter. Also take a look at shares of Ford.

24:20You see GM is at a 52-week high, not much different from Ford. They tend to trade in tandem, so it's not surprising that Ford is also at or just above a 52-week high or close to a 52-week high. It announced a while back that it's taking$19.5 billion in EV-related charges as it restructures its EV operations. As you take a look at shares of GM and Ford and Tesla, we're only showing the last three months, Melissa, but it's been clear, even though the EV business, the market share is 7.4 % for all of 2025, investors are saying, we like what GM and Ford are doing. They are prioritizing the high-profit, in-demand vehicles, ICE models primarily, that are hot right now.

25:07And that's why these shares have been moving higher. Melissa, back to you.

25:11Tim Seymour:Phil, thanks. Phil LeBeau, of course, ICE being internal combustion engine. How do the charts look? You know, both near their highs, or at least recent highs. But there's, on GM's chart, a long-term indication of trend exhaustion that would support a four-month consolidation phase. Maybe this could be the catalyst for that. And consolidation could be sideways to slightly lower from here. It doesn't mean it's going to cascade lower. And listen, for context, Ford took a – it was three times the size that GM is taking now. So, listen, GM to me is still the better of the two stocks. I don't know necessarily in terms of cars, but I think you buy this pullback in GM.

25:50I'm with Katie that it could go sideways, but GM has a lot of runway to the upside valuation. Yeah, Phil said it. They're selling cars that people want to buy. The number one car that's been sold for the last 20 years is the Ford F-150. You knew that, right? And on top of that, if we look at rates, rates go lower, they sell more cars. I would still be a buyer of both these companies. Well, there's just no way they're going to get to their pre-released EV mandate. What was it, a million cars by 2025? I mean, it wasn't going to happen. I think they came out with like 170, 180 ,000. So I think kind of taking it on the chin a little bit in the short term was slightly painful.

26:26But like when you think about a cyclical capital intensive business, you probably want to see this capital discipline and acknowledge that, listen, China and this EV is really not where we're making money. It's not the highest margin in terms of our product offering. And so I think it's healthy. But I do think perhaps to Katie's point, it may be a catalyst for some sideways or slightly downward trading.

26:48Tim Seymour:There's a lot more fast money to come. Here's what's coming up next. Growing gains. Agriculture stocks reaping a hefty harvest today. What's behind the strength and which names could keep plowing higher? Plus, a lot of macro headlines moving markets, but it's single stock volatility catching our next guest's attention and how jobs data and earnings could swing stocks. You're watching Fast Money live from the NASDAQ market site in Times Square. We're back right after this. So you're saying with Hilton Honors, I can use points for a free night stay anywhere? Anywhere. What about fancy places like the Canopy in Paris?

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28:50Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. Deere having its best day since April. Other agriculture and seed stocks like Bungie, Archer Daniels, Scott's Miracle-Gro and Caterpillar are also in the green today. Steve said it is related to what's going on in Venezuela. How so? The market always prices in the longer-term effects. So we're always about static, 30 % of exports to Venezuela. But we've had defaults. So these companies were never getting paid. Now they're actually going to start getting paid, and it could move up to a 50 % market share. Corn, seeds, oils. You have 30 million people who need food. These are the companies, in addition to, you listed them, John Deere to a lesser extent, Caterpillar to a lesser extent.

29:30But I think you have to look at the corn stocks, the seed stocks, the bio stocks, all these names. When you think about oil, oil is going to take months, if not years, to get going. This could be at their shores in weeks. That means that profits could be in the bank accounts very quickly. It's a flywheel because now they're actually going to have money to pay for these to pay for this food versus just acquiring a long balance sheet of never paid goods.

29:56Tim Seymour:Are there are there no concerns about the security, about the stability of government? Like you think, oh, yeah, it's just I think. But if the United States is really overlooking the purse strings to Venezuela, I think there's a huge bet that our companies are going to do a lot of the exporting there. And think about it. Who's the competition? Russia and Turkey. We're going to get that share. Any of these charts look good to you? Yeah, you know, I'm really interested in the DBA ETF. It's got this interesting breakout above its 200-day moving average. So it's another way to take on this trade, actually go for the commodities themselves.

30:32And it's a great diversifier for a portfolio.

30:35Tim Seymour:Coming up, volatility on the rise. But as the single stock swings, catch your next guest's attention. The name standing out to her and how the macro headlines are impacting the markets. Fast Money is back in two.

30:50Missed a moment of fast? Catch us anytime on the go. Follow the Fast Money podcast. We're back right after this.

31:04Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. A mixed day for major indices. The Nasdaq down about half a percent. The S &P virtually unchanged, but the Dow added 270 points, its fourth positive session in five. And small cap Russell 2000 jumping more than one percent, closing at a fresh record high. Expedia, Tapestry, Valero, TJX and Ulta all hitting records of their own. and shares of Costco rising after posting strong December sales last night. Analysts at Oppenheimer are saying the company offers a superior value proposition and could benefit from positioning to a relatively higher income customer. They also say special dividend, increase the dividends.

31:37Tim Seymour:That could also be a catalyst for investors. Well, the horse race for the next Fed chair heating up as The New York Times reports President Trump has decided on his pick. According to Calci, the world's largest prediction market, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, now the frontrunner, passing longtime favorite Kevin Hassett. Warsh's odds currently at 40 percent. He is perceived as potentially more independent than a Kevin Hassett, which would presumably be a good thing in terms of credibility of the Fed. I think that's the biggest question. I'm not really sure that the name necessarily matters, aside from particularly Hassett in particular.

32:15It's really going to be, Do we have Fed independent credibility? And as I've mentioned before, I do think both rates and precious metals have indicated that there have been questions around that. I think the recent news that we just heard today around Freddie and Fannie and somewhat kind of undermining the Federal Reserve, call it QE light or QE derivative. I think, you know, once some of that gets buttoned up and we, you know, have a one, just have some certainty in terms of who's going to be there. And then the other thing that I think is kind of flying under the radar is that the terms of the existing governors, I believe, have been renewed for some time.

32:53So there will be some continuity. I think right now people are kind of positioning. I think there's been a lot of rhetoric that has created some unease. But ultimately, I think the independence of the Federal Reserve will be established and maintained. Yeah, I think quickly, Kevin Walsh would assuage any concerns far more so than the other Kevin, in my opinion. So I think that on the margins is positive because I do think he's probably far more independent than the rest of the candidates for the job.

33:18Tim Seymour:All right. Meantime, the SIBO finds investors are shifting away from macro risk to single stock and sector risks. Mandy Hsu, the firm's head of derivatives market intelligence, is here on set with us. Mandy, great to have you with us. Happy New Year to you. You too. Great to be here. So the shift away from macro into individual stocks, is it still mag seven? It's not. It's actually there's more sector rotation. And you saw today actually a great example of that. Right. So people shifting away from tech, going to some of the sectors that were maybe underperforming last year. I think that the best three performance sectors today were the three worst from last last year.

33:52So you are seeing more and more rotation underneath the surface, more thematic plays away from Mac seven, away from tech into maybe defense names, into, you know, other other names, you know, that are maybe underperformed recently. So we are seeing that. We're seeing in terms of volatility at the single stock level really picking up relative to the index. So that tells you people are more focused on these idiosyncratic risks.

34:17Tim Seymour:How do you interpret the move away, the churn away from MAG7? Do you see that as permanent? I mean, what are you seeing in terms of how they're positioning? Sure. So we are seeing increasing risk being priced into the tech sector. So whether you're looking at the QQQ, the ETF, or we actually recently launched options on the SIBO MAC-10 index, which is MAC-7 plus three other AI stocks. And in both instances, we're seeing increasing implied volatility or expected volatility for the sector relative to, say, the broader market. So we are seeing that in the options market. You know, Mandy, gold has historically been, if there's a downturn in the equity market, sort of a hedge.

34:53You're suggesting that maybe not so much anymore. Yeah, so I mean, gold has been on a phenomenal run, right, up 60 plus percent last year. And a lot of people look at gold as a potential hedge to their equity portfolio. You hear it as, you know, it's a safe haven. And especially after 2022, when people got burned with, you know, bonds selling off in addition to stocks, looking at alternative hedges. And what we've noticed is that over the past couple of months, gold has become actually increasingly positively correlated to stocks. So that correlation went from negative to positive. So it's behaving like a risk asset.

35:26And that matters, obviously, if you're holding gold for that diversification benefit. I would say, you know, maybe reevaluate and look at other hedges potentially. But, you know, there are other reasons to be bullish for gold. But as a hedge, I would say that that is something that I would be aware of. What's the newest product, the newest derivative that you're starting to see some traction off of? That's more of a sign of the times. Everything that we're talking about now. But is there something that sticks out to you as this is different from the past and people are migrating to that to hedge?

35:53In terms of hedging, I wouldn't say it's necessarily new. But, you know, over the past year, two years, we've seen this huge rise in terms of option-based ETFs, in terms of the AUM being gathered. It's kind of a hot new product, even though the strategies embedded into these ETFs have been around for a very long time. And I think they've been very successful as a way, easier way for people to access options. Right. So instead of learning about calls and puts, what option chain, what strikes. Now it's a ticker. You buy a ticker, and that fund manages the option strategy on your behalf. And I think another reason why it's been popular, going back to the gold comment, is post-2022, people looking for other ways to head their portfolio.

36:34Options have been a really great alternative that people have looked at. So I think those two factors combined, we've seen this big growth in terms of the AUM and these strategies.

36:43Tim Seymour:All right, Mandy, great to see you. Thank you. Mandy Hsu of SIBO. So, Katie, in terms of hedging, what would you like to add? KATIE HILLERSON - Yeah, you know, in terms of hedging, we do look at the VIX products, of course, and I know they're very hard to time, but they can be incredibly added value. We have been recommending hedges since about mid-October, and with the sense that if we were to see the triple Qs or the NASDAQ 100 break down from its triangle formation, that we would increase those hedging strategies, because that would increase downside risk, make the correction look like something that could be deeper and more prolonged.

37:18So there is risk of that. But as it stands within the triangle, it's more of a neutral formation. So we're not actively saying take that VIX or inverse exposure. Yeah, I'm curious in terms of the comments she was making about people making less macro bets. I wonder if given the constitution of the S &P, the rotation that we're seeing away from the MAG-7 means that the S &P or the VIX related to that is no longer the best proxy hedge for your overall portfolio. When you're seeing a ton of action and names that are 35%, 40%, then the VIX is clearly like a nice proxy for you to have there. And so I'm not sure if that's a complete structural rotation away from that or just the fact that the VIX doesn't make the same type of proxy hedge when you're trading in more XLI, industrial, and cyclical type names.

38:06Tim Seymour:Right. Does the comment on gold concern you, Guy, that is more risk on? A little bit, but not really, because if you heard Mandy say, If you're in it for the hedge against the portfolio, it's one thing. But I think the reasons to be long gold clearly outweigh any portfolio management against a downturn in the market. How does the gold chart look to you? It looks good. I mean, as a technician, you can't really be bearish gold, of course. But I'm a little concerned by the day-to-day pickup in volatility for silver. It's not scientific, but it is something that we have found tends to precede more volatility to the downside versus the upside.

38:42Tim Seymour:Coming up, Merck's Biotech Buy, how the pharma giant's latest deal could boost the stock, plus a new CNBC initiative raising awareness for rare diseases. We'll bring you more on that when Fast Money returns.

39:01Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. Today we are launching CNBC Cures, a new initiative raising awareness of rare diseases and improving outcomes for people who have them. It's a cause near and dear to our friend and colleague, Becky Quick, whose daughter, Kaylee, is one of the 30 million Americans living with a rare disease. Six years ago, Kaylee was diagnosed with a neurodevelopmental condition called SYNGAP1. Learning how to parent a child with a rare disease changed her world in ways she could have never imagined. You start to peel back and worry about what might not happen for her. And I remember at first thinking, okay, being mad when he said maybe she's not going to be a Fortune 500 CEO.

39:41And then thinking, if we could just get her to college, that would be great. And then thinking, well, she doesn't have to go to college.

39:50Tim Seymour:If she can just find something that she loves doing. And then you start rolling it back, and it's like, if she can just walk. If she can just talk. If she can just find a friend. I want to say it was the first birthday party. It felt like a wake. And now for the green and open. There was something so wrong with it. And we were just, we knew we were trying to be happy. And we were trying to celebrate it. Happy birthday to you. But she couldn't blow out the candle. Right? Like, we weren't there yet. And she wasn't able to do that. So we kind of faked it because we wanted to make it feel like it was normal.

40:37And it wasn't normal. And we knew it.

40:42Tim Seymour:One in 10 Americans have a rare disease and as many as 400 million people around the globe. You can check out Becky's new podcast series, The Path with Becky Quick. And on March 3rd, we're hosting the CNBC Cures Summit, a live event focused entirely on rare diseases. You can register for that and hear more about Becky's rare disease journey at CNBC.com slash cures. I do want to say I commend Becky for sharing her story, for sharing that personal side of her life, very personal. It was very courageous of her to decide to do, but she ultimately, she told me, decided to do it because she felt that CNBC offered a great platform to, you know, to hopefully spur companies, spur doctors to start looking into potential cures and to connect families who are going through the same journey.

41:29100 percent. I mean, Becky was one of the first people I met at the network over 20 years ago. I've known Matt a long time as well. I mean, it's extraordinarily courageous of both of them to come out. But you know what? It's important as well, because this what we just saw now is going to make a huge difference going forward.

41:44Tim Seymour:Yeah. All right. So do check that out. The podcast, The Path with Becky Quick. Meantime, Merck today finalizing its acquisition of flu prevention drugmaker Sedara Therapeutics in a deal worth$9.2 billion. Shares get an additional boost late in the session on reports that the company is in talks to buy cancer drugmaker Revolution Medicines. Yesterday, The Wall Street Journal reported that AbbVie was considering a deal for that company, but AbbVie later denied that report. And this just shows you the acknowledgement that there is a patent cliff and that there, you know, that there is a need to acquire all these companies, which makes you think about all the potential targets as well.

42:20Yes, I've been looking at the patent cliff and it's really fascinating to see who has the most at risk, who has the least at risk. But they all have something at risk. So it goes to 70 percent of revenues down to 30 percent of revenues. But what it does amplify are all these companies that are from a billion dollars to 10 billion that are takeout targets. So watch those micro cap, the smaller cap biotech names. They're all going to be of interest. Everyone has to advance their pipeline and their profitability because they're going to lose a ton of revenue in the next couple of years.

42:54Tim Seymour:Revolution, by the way, is up in the after hours session on all of this. Significantly. Pull up a chart over the last couple of months and you'll see. I mean, Steve is right. We've talked about a lot of these names, but, you know, to your point about Merck, they've gotten themselves out of the penalty box because instead of playing defense, they're starting to play offense. And I think Wolf just upgraded the stock. Don't add me, but I think they put 135 price target on it. And I think that's reasonable, quite frankly. Just quickly, pharma or biotech for you? I think it's biotech. Clearly, you're taking more risk, but I think that's the name of the game right now.

43:26Tim Seymour:Coming up, Constellation Brands jumping after its latest earnings report. But could some customer concerns have the stock sobering up? We'll explain when Fast Money returns.

43:47Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. Shares of Constellation Brands bubbling higher today, up over 5 % after the beer maker top revenue and EPS estimates in its latest earnings report. But the company warning about future beer sales, saying economic uncertainty and high unemployment could weigh on Hispanic consumers in particular, who account for nearly half of the company's U.S. beer sales. What did you make? It's a very interesting report in terms of how the CEO talked about the business and what they were talking about zip codes. The zip codes that had more than 20 percent Hispanic population, they saw the impact the most.

44:21You know, Wilford Frost, our old friend, put out a tweet today talking about this. It's pretty remarkable what's happened in alcohol beer sales over the last couple of years. What do I make of it in terms of the stock? Bit of a relief rally. And Katie can look at this. We just recently traded down to the lows we saw in 2020. And think about what was going on in the spring of 2020. So maybe this relief rally has legs. But I think the business is absolutely challenged, especially if you listen to those comments. Yeah, I agree with the relief rally having legs. We have almost an inverse head and shoulders pattern, which is a bottoming formation that usually has some duration to it.

44:56There is an interesting countertrend buy signal in November that allowed for this up move. And it got through already a couple of tiers of resistance. Next resistance looks like it's at the 200 day moving average. What do you make of this trade? It's tough for me to get behind it. I mean, I'm sure to Guy and Katie's points in the short term, you can make some money here. It's kind of, you know, it looks like it's based off of those lows. But I just think that the overall trend when it comes to beer, alcohol, and then you even saw some disparity, divergence between their beer sales and their spirit sales, their mixed drinks, et cetera.

45:33And that's where you're starting to see a lot of new entrants kind of come in and disrupt that space. You have cannabis-infused product as well. So I think it just makes for a challenging long-term setup. Over 80 % of the revenues are from beer to Bono's point. And it was declining with or without the immigrant force or whatnot. It doesn't matter the demographics. The demographics are people are drinking hard seltzers. They're drinking cannabis-infused. Beer is sort of the long tail that's really dying right now. And with over 80 % reliant on revenues, I probably wouldn't buy it here.

46:05Tim Seymour:Up next, Final Trades.

46:11Tim Seymour:Talk of the Final Trades, Steve. You weren't here two weeks ago last week. Whatever it was, you weren't here. But Dan Ives was sitting right here, and he gave me Serv Robotics. I bought that one. It was up 56%. Sold it. He gave me another one today. Sound. 80. I like Texas Instruments, so TXN. It has a short-term breakout within its five-year trading range. It's an emerging player, I think, in the 70s. Bonoan. Looks like Costco's reversed that short-term downtrend. Costco. SLB Corp, sister. All right. Thanks for watching. Fassie Becker, Tamar 5, Mad Money with Jim Cramer starts right now.

47:12and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Fast Money Disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com forward slash Fast Money Disclaimer. It's Charles Barkley here with Wayfair. And let me tell you, game day is serious business at my house. If I'm grilling, chilling, and watching hoops, my outdoor setup better be ready to play. That's what Wayfair wins. From patio seating and umbrellas to grills and grill accessories, Wayfair's got it all, and it shows up fast. I'm talking fast and easy delivery. So level up your grill game and your outdoor chill game and head to Wayfair.com to get your outdoor space ready for the season.

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