U.S. Treasury's Surge… And Oil Prices Sink on Potential Iran Peace Deal 8/6/26

19:17Tim Seymour:Well, some of that leverage that drove some of that trade is never going to come back. I mean, some of that leverage is in South Korea. And it's banned now. So they're not going to be able to come back to the degree that they were in that trade before.

19:28Melissa Lee:Listen, three weeks ago you put that call out. I think it was maybe four weeks ago. I mean, think about how quickly it came to fruition. I mean, the outperformance has been staggering. And I think you, in your wildest dreams, didn't think it would happen that quickly to that magnitude. Yet here we are, and it speaks to what you just said. Things happen much faster now. Absolutely.

19:46Tim Seymour:Coming up, Airbnb soaring after a latest earnings report. We're digging into the numbers on that next. Plus, a big biotech divergence. what is driving Insmed and Moderna in very opposite directions today. And look at other fast movers on our radar. Don't go anywhere. Fast Money is back in two.

20:02Melissa Lee:This is Fast Money with Melissa Lee right here on CNBC.

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21:44Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. We've got an earnings alert on Airbnb. Those shares are higher by about 8 % in the after hours. On top and bottom line beats, a vacation rental company seeing strong global demand and benefiting from World Cup travel. The call kicked off at the top of the hour. CNBC's Mackenzie Cigalos has more from the report. Mac. Mel, Airbnb's big message tonight is that growth is breaking meaningfully higher with its outlook now well above what rivals are posting. CEO Brian Chesky said on the call moments ago that AI is the best thing to ever happen to Airbnb, helping cut development time by as much as 60 % and increase the number of features and improvements shipped by nearly 80%.

22:21Now, the company expects gross booking value to rise in the mid-teens this quarter, more than double the pace of nights booked, really a sign that travelers are spending more per trip. Airbnb also says its broad range of listing gives customers room to trade down or stay closer to home when airfare is expensive. Domestic travel is accelerating faster than international travel, while features like Reserve Now, Pay Later are helping guests spread out the upfront cost of trips. Airbnb's push beyond home rentals is also gaining traction, with hotel nights growing about three times faster than its home business.

22:54And Airbnb says AI is helping it get more from its existing workforce, headcount roughly flat year to date, even as spending on AI rises sharply, with the company still raising its full-year margin outlook. Mel?

23:07Tim Seymour:Back, thanks. Mackenzie Cigalos. And maybe it's no surprise. They've seen travel in general pretty strong. We've got earnings reports from Bookings and Expedia. Those are both strong. The stocks are higher.

23:16Melissa Lee:Yeah, so a couple of things. Valuation's not a big deal. I don't think it's a concern. I think they're doing mid-teens revenue growth. So good for them. And the stock's coming off a pretty significant downtrend over the last couple of years. We've reinflected seemingly higher over the last six or nine months. I'll say this. This 165 level, that was a prior high back in, I think, the May of 2024. So it should stall here. But I still think it's reasonable stock.

23:40Tim Seymour:Some will look at this and point to, you know, the spend on travel and say the consumer is still OK.

23:45Melissa Lee:Yeah, I mean, look at Expedia, look at the airlines. I mean, there's a lot, you know, when you look at just in general what's going on in the space. You know, the other thing about Airbnb is, you know, that spend on AI, that's great. And it doesn't seem like, you know, investors are too worried about that. But this is a company that is expected to on a sequential basis to see a meaningful step down in probably what is a seasonally strong. quarter. So again, I mean, to Guy's point, I mean, valuation may not be an issue. And this is a stock that, look at this, a 52-week high is just coming into it.

24:14Melissa Lee:So it looks pretty decent to be here.

24:15Tim Seymour:Wasn't this once in one of your acronyms like five years ago or something like that? You know, I think that's fit. What would that have been? In a clam? In the clam? No, it was in his clam. It was even before hope.

24:25Melissa Lee:Before hope. Before hope. I'd have to go back into the archives. Maybe that crack staff in EC can effort that.

24:32Tim Seymour:Pull that out, yeah. Dawn. Don. Don. It was the A in Don. Who told you that? Sandy. Yeah. Nice. Sandy knows everything. Sandy was not even the EP then. Wow. He does know everything. That's how much of a fanboy he is. Wow. Yeah. A lot more Fast Money to Come Here is coming up next. From Diageo and high spirits to Zillow getting a real estate reality check, all the fast movers grabbing our attention today and how to play the moves next. Plus, a crude reawakening. Oil spiking as tensions reignite in the Strait of Hormuz. Where prices could be headed next and what it means for investors in the energy patch.

25:11You're watching Fast Money, live from the NASDAQ market site in Times Square. We're back right after this.

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25:31Tim Seymour:with the expertise, technology, and partnerships needed to make AI work in the real world. Don't just launch AI, land it. Because when AI delivers results, it's amazing. We configure, optimize, and deliver the tech that runs business. CDW, make amazing happen. Hey, Chicagoland, the Wayfair store is in your neighborhood at Edens Plaza and Wilmette. Finally, you can feel the fabric, sit on the sectionals, and even open the refrigerators. Plus, our in-store designers will help you bring it all together with free one-on-one design support for any project on any budget. Yep, we said free. Oh, and did we mention the cafe?

26:11So what are you waiting for? Come see all that's in store. Visit the Wayfair store today at Edens Plaza and Wilmette. Wayfair, every style, every home. The July Jobs Report, a fresh read on the labor market. As the Fed remains focused on inflation, will hiring hold up? Employment numbers and analysis. Squawkbox. Tomorrow, 8.30 a.m.

26:33Melissa Lee:Eastern and streaming on CNBC+.

26:37Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. Stocks lower in Thursday trading. The Dow down 460 points, snapping a five-day winning streak. The S &P down about two-tenths of a percent in the Nasdaq, ending just below the flatline. Spirits maker Diageo rising 5 % after announcing a three-year cost-cutting plan totaling$1.2 billion. That coming after the company reported declining net sales for the full fiscal year amid a broader pullback in alcohol consumption. Moderna, meantime, down over 4 percent even after nabbing FDA approval for the first ever mRNA vaccine for seasonal flu. That stock now down 87 percent from its pandemic highs.

27:13Tim Seymour:In Smed, meanwhile, soaring 34 percent for its best day in over two years. The company reporting sales of its new lung disease drug that blew past estimates and raised its long term outlook for peak sales. in its three lead programs to more than$14 billion. And Zillow sliding 8.5 % after giving disappointing guidance, citing broader housing headwinds. It also reported$36 million in restructuring costs during the quarter. Replimune lowered in extended trading. The biotech announcing that the FDA has approved its melanoma drug following two prior rejections of its application. And some stocks on the move after results.

27:46Tim Seymour:Instacart surging on higher revenues boosted by additional orders. Trade desk sinking after missing top and bottom line estimates. and Cloudflare jumping after beating estimates. What did you make of the move in Zillow, Karen? Well, I was sad about it, if that's what you mean. Yeah, I am long. It closed much well off of the lows. But the main thing was two things. They're changing the way they account for some of their revenue, and they feel like they will be in the longer term better, but in the shorter term they're going to be lower the next few quarters until we get to January. That was one thing.

28:17So they did explain it, but we need to get used to it. The other thing is just the market right now where rates are. It's very difficult to, you know, we've seen what's happened to housing sales. So that's the other problem that, you know, that's beyond them. That is what it is. So I like the name, but I don't know. This was this was a little bit difficult. You're reevaluating your position. Now, I think here it was this was overdone. And but they laid out the path. We've seen them do this before. So I'm going to give them the benefit of the doubt. But I'm sad is really what I feel today on Zillow.

28:52Tim Seymour:Are investors going to give Trade Desk any benefit of the doubt? I mean, this is like a string of down 20 plus percent moves or double digit percent moves on earnings.

29:00Melissa Lee:Just when you think, you know, you can make a case on valuation and it's bottomed out, you get a quarter like this and you get a move lower on the back of what has been a significant move low over the last year. You know, Karen always says continue to do this in sort of perpetuity. And it's true. But at some point you find some valuation cushion. I just don't think we've found it yet. Let's do Instacart.

29:21Tim Seymour:Sure, Maple Bear. Yeah. You love it.

29:24Melissa Lee:You know, this is a company where earnings was growing off a very low base for the last couple years. And you look at what's now expected to be, you know, I think you're going to normalize at 20 % or so. Revenue is expected to grow, you know, 10%, 11 % over the next couple quarters. But you also have gross margins that are staying pretty decent in and around that 73%. I also think that it says something about the consumer, which you were just kind of alluding to, that, you know, you're starting to see in a lot of different pockets where some of these companies are, I don't know, maybe they're getting leverage on, you know, some of these, I don't know, you know, they have the COVID hangover, this and that, whatever, and they're kind of coming back a little bit.

29:59Melissa Lee:So, you know, this is one I actually think is pretty attractive also.

30:02Tim Seymour:Coming up, drilling down on the energy markets, what to make of today's oil spike in. And the continued questions on the straight-up form moves. RBC's Halima Kroft joins us to break it all down in Fast Money Returns. Missed a moment of fast?

30:15Melissa Lee:Catch us anytime on the go. Follow the Fast Money podcast. We're back right after this.

30:31Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. Oil pushing higher today after Iran State News published a draft plan that restricts ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. Brent jumping almost 4 percent, while WTI gained nearly 3 percent. Prices, though, still on track for their worst week since June. Let's bring in CNBC contributor Halima Croft, global head of commodity strategy for RBC Capital Markets. Halima, great to have you with us. For having me. So is oil appropriately priced, given where we are in terms of lack of progress or however you want to see it, in the talks? I mean, I think there's been so much optimism that we're moving to a start your engines phase, which, if you look at the reality of what the Iranians are saying, that is not a really great environment to normalize shipping traffic.

31:12I mean, we had the statements from the parliament today talking about no Israeli ships, no U.S. ships, no adversaries of the axis of resistance, talking about a fee structure. And then the line from the White House is, no, no, it's open, no fees. Clearly, the Iranians are not giving up control over Hormuz. They are going to look to monetize it. We could get something that looks like the MOU in June, but that lasted less than a month. And the Iranians want to monetize the agreement. They also want a cash settlement from the United States. They want sanctions relief. They would like us to create a big fund for reconstruction,$300 billion.

31:47They want their billions of dollars in frozen accounts. So for the White House to accept a deal that essentially says a waterway that was open is now controlled and we're going to write a check, like, that's—I think that's a hard sell, actually.

32:00Tim Seymour:I mean, it's like we're worse off than when we started the war because we haven't accomplished anything on the key issue of nuclear. We haven't even discussed the nuclear file. I mean, that was the issue that started the war. We're supposed to now have a period where we can try to reach an agreement on that. But I think the oil market sees any sign of progress as a time machine, that we're going to go back to February 26th. I mean, one issue is the central corridor of Hormuz has been heavily mined. And some people would say it could take months to clear those mines. So, again, this is not a normal, open-for-business waterway.

32:33Melissa Lee:How much time do we—the SPR, I think, is at 42 percent capacity, 300 million barrels or something? This is the really interesting thing to pay attention to because there is a debate. At what point does the SPR—you get really operational challenges. Some people have said that it's 300 million. Some have said it's 250. Some people say 180 is like the absolute minimum. them. But we're going to crash through 300 soon. So we're going to get the test case. Was that really the level that we start to see problems with the salt caverns? So we don't have a whole lot of runway when it comes to inventories.

33:08And there's the other runway in terms of missile interceptors. Like if you look at the reporting that we've had out of various outlets, I mean, that's also probably incentivized in the administration. If you don't have as many long-range missiles as you need, the interceptors, there's obviously incentive for Washington to get the deal done, but do we really want to meet the Iranian terms? First of all, great to have you in person. Thank you. So if you're Iran, right, you want to cut as good a deal as you can, but if you cut too good of a deal, you sort of, you hasten the demise of the Strait of Hormuz's importance, right?

33:43Right. That's the peak Hormuz, you know, thing we've talked about. Like, countries in the region that don't have viable alternative routes like the Saudis or the Emiratis, they're going to try to quickly build new alternative pipelines that bypass Hormuz. But those pipelines could take two years to build. So if you're the Iranians, you might think two years is plenty of time to basically fill up the cash register. So again, it's your perception of like how much time is necessary to refill your ATM. And the Iranians have massive reconstruction needs. You know, the leadership is this harder line, IRG leadership around the supreme leader.

34:20And they may just decide that they'll take two years.

34:24Melissa Lee:If this deal were to happen the way it's being reported, it looks like a worse deal than the MOU going back to June. Are you surprised? And again, do you agree with that, A? But B, are you surprised there's not more of a premium built into oil right here? So again, I think this report from the parliament just came out. I mean, to be fair, Iran's parliament is not the ultimate decision-making body, but it does sort of jive with what we've heard from hardliners in Iran, that they are going to monetize this. So I think it was a bit of a wake-up call for the market, but I think so many market participants are tired of this war.

34:58A lot of dedicated commodity investors are on the sidelines because they don't want to get blown out by a tweet. And so people are just wanting an endgame. And so they will seize on any statement from the administration that this is coming to a close. Let's assume that maybe you get a spike in the near term because you're testing the SPR levels, not just in the U.S., but globally. You started by saying that, you know, we haven't really achieved the goals, but maybe this war shone a light on the idea that this choke point is silly to begin with. And so whether it's pipelines or new drilling around the world, how long will that take?

35:31You said two years for some pipelines. Sure. What about just new drilling around the world that takes, you know, capacity goes to different places? Well, I think what's going to be interesting is like how much more can you get out of other regions? I mean, certainly people be watching for Venezuela. I mean, yes, it's not been as chaotic as some feared, but we're waiting to really see a barrel dividend out of Venezuela. The U.S. is going gangbusters. And so it's a question of, like, how much more can we push the U.S. system, the U.S. reservoirs? I mean, one big issue that I think I should leave you with is the issue on refined products.

36:05I mean, if we do have inventories we can draw down, if we do have other production zones we can think about, we are flat out when it comes to refinery capacity. This war has taken out refineries in the Middle East. The Russia-Ukraine war, we still see so many targeting of Russian refineries, targeting critical infrastructure. The U.S. refinery system is flat out. There's no spare capacity for refineries at this point. So really continue to watch the diesel story, the gasoline story. Like, that is going to be a problem going into fall.

36:38Tim Seymour:I mean, we're a hurricane away from— A hurricane away from a terrible situation. Halima, great to see you. Thank you for having me. Thank you, Halima Croft of RBC. I mean, it's amazing. She's amazing. Rushmore, like, farthing on the whole thing. You asked a question, actually, Dan, in terms of being surprised. Great question, right? It's a pretty good question. Do you think oil should probably have? I think so.

37:02Melissa Lee:I mean, Halima just said that, like, market participants are sick of the war. You can't get away from the war. I mean, that's the problem. And the deals keep getting worse. And so if the deals get worse, I mean, she also mentioned that the hardliners, I mean, And the IRGC, I mean, it doesn't seem like they want to do these deals. And they're going to start messing around again. So, I mean, I think oil should have an aid handle on it. It does. Well, Brent, I mean, yeah. But, I mean, what I'm saying is, look, oil's been shopping around. We sold off, you know, pretty sharply. You know, now I think we're probably going to go higher.

37:32And if I look at the technical picture, because that's what commodities are, it's all about technicals, I think we go higher first. And that bothers me. Not so much. We can handle$90,$100 oil even. What we can't handle is the impact back on the rates market. So this is the interplay that I'm more focused on is oil at 100, you get the 5%. Right, exactly.

37:51Melissa Lee:She knew the SPR thing. I knew it. Of course she did. Why wouldn't she? She's like, you and her are in my head. But it is a big deal that nobody's talking about. We're right at 300 million. That, to me, is sort of lying in the sand stuff. We'll see what happens once we get through it. There's no way that both of you guys fit in this head.

38:06Tim Seymour:There is. We've lost plenty of room. It's empty. Plenty of room in there. You can just wander around. Coming up, sounding off on the AI buildup, the CEO of SoundHound AI joins us to discuss the current investment cycle and what his company's latest earnings signal about demand. Fast Money is back right after this.

38:29Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. Shares of SoundHound AI soaring 10 percent, the closing off session highs. After reporting a record revenue of$62 million, the gains driven by enterprise deals related to its conversational AI platform, Oasis. The company also raising its full year revenue outlook. CEO Kevan Mohajer joins us now for more on the quarter. Kevan, great to have you with us. Thank you for having me. You are in the business of, I mean, how would you simplify it? AI agents? Yeah, we provide voice and AI agents for both business, for customer service, and devices as the AI interface, like cars and TVs and IoT devices.

39:01So we are in millions of cars and thousands of businesses.

39:03Tim Seymour:Okay, so what end market is the biggest consumer of AI agents right now? Where do you see the greatest demand? Well, this is the time we need to be everywhere. I mean, for the first 17 years, we were focused on building our technology and our platform and making it really good. But now we are entering an era where we think every business is going to have an AI agent, right? So there was a time that businesses woke up and said, we need to have a website. And then years later, mobile apps. But now it's going to be an AI agent. And business of all sizes. So it can be a single location barbershop or it can be a large insurance company and you're going to have an AI agent.

39:38You build it once and you can deploy it everywhere on your phone, on your website, messaging. And SoundHound is able to provide that for all businesses.

39:47Melissa Lee:Kavan, I'm looking at your customers and maybe I'm wrong, but I see the DOD as one of them. And then I see White Castle as the other. So talk to me a little bit about what it looks like government versus enterprise. You know, this is, well, as you know, we had a great quarter. It was a record revenue. We were up 10 times since the first quarter. We reported on NASDAQ four years ago. And a lot of that was because of the Oasis platform that we power. And we won businesses. We won in China. We won in restaurants. We won automotive. We are powering health care companies. We are in top banks. And it's really just the beginning.

40:36And I think the market for enterprise agent AI is going to be$1 trillion by 2030. And we have everything we need to capture a big part of that.

40:49Tim Seymour:How do you make sure that the AI agents are fenced in, that they have access to things that they should have access to and maybe not more than a human agent would have access to? I mean, how are you engaging with enterprise in terms of keeping their information safe, keeping their customers' information safe? Yeah, actually, that's one of the areas that Sanhan really shines because we have our own models that can run these agents. So a lot of companies that are entering this area, they need to use other vendors like Frontier Models. So the data goes to those Frontier Labs and then comes back, and sometimes you don't know what they do with it.

41:22But Sanhan actually has its own foundation model in speech. in natural language understanding, and we are able to run all of that locally in our own data center or even on-premise in their data center.

41:34Melissa Lee:Live person, you're expected to close by the end of the year. You're going to update guidance, I think, around that. How important is that going to be to the extent that you can talk about it? Well, this is our fifth acquisition. In the last two and a half years, we've bought five companies. We are getting really good at it. And, you know, the first one was about two and a half years ago. And within two years, we had a turnaround. We turned them into from decline to growth. And the last one we bought was last year is already showing signs of turnaround. So we are getting more efficient at it. Now, LivePerson is the biggest one.

42:06It's a public company deal. The deal was announced a few months ago. We hope that it will close before the end of this year. It's a large-scale deal, so we're going to update our guidance after it closes. But the date of closing is not certain, so we're going to do it after it closes.

42:19Tim Seymour:And just quickly, Kayvon, do you have sort of an average savings? like when somebody uses an AI agent instead of hiring a person, what that company saves? It's actually not just about saving. It's also about increasing revenue. So we had, for example, we were powering a drive-thru for a restaurant, one of our restaurant customers, and they did a study, so it wasn't done by us. They looked at a few dozen locations that were powered by our AI, and they looked at a few dozen locations that were not powered by our AI, and the revenue per location went up by using the AI. So it's not just about cost saving, but it's also about increasing the revenue because AI is able to first be more efficient, but it's also able to make recommendations and increase the ticket size.

43:00Tim Seymour:Avon, thanks for joining us. Appreciate it. Thank you. Coming up, a SpaceX stress test. Shares regaining some ground even as the stock's first major lockup expires. But can the rocket company stay on trajectory or are insiders still heading for the exit? We'll debate that. More Fast Money in 2.

43:21Tim Seymour:Back to the final trade, Mike Wilson and Morgan Stanley. I still think the hyperscalers will outperform the semiconductors as we move from early to mid-cycle. Karen? Yes, Zillow three-day rule. I think it's a buy, actually. Rental business was good. They'll get it together.

43:34Melissa Lee:Dan? Yeah, SpaceX. I like guys call to 135. As I've mentioned many times, Melissa, we are a family here. And one of our family members, after two years, will be leaving us. That's Michelle DiMartino, who we all have grown to love. Sweet as can be. We wish her the best of luck, Melissa.

43:54Melissa Lee:Oh, final trade. A GlaxoSmith line.

43:57Tim Seymour:Fast Money starts right now.

43:59Melissa Lee:Mad Money.

44:00Tim Seymour:Mad Money. Mad Money 2. That's my second show. Come on. All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet, or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such.

44:31To view the full Fast Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com forward slash Fast Money disclaimer. Hey, Chicagoland, the Wayfair store is in your neighborhood at Eden's Plaza and Wilmette. Finally, you can feel the fabric, sit on the sectionals, and even open the refrigerators. Plus, our in-store designers will help you bring it all together with free one-on-one design support for any project on any budget. Yep, we said free. Oh, and did we mention the cafe? So what are you waiting for? Come see all that's in store. Visit the Wayfair store today at Edens Plaza and Wilmette.