Under The Surface Market Moves… And Novo Nordisk Plunges Description 7/29/25

0:01Live from the Nasdaq market site in the heart of New York City's Times Square this is fast money Here's what's on tap tonight. Trouble lurking. The S &P 500 and Nasdaq setting new intraday records before pulling back today. Are reversals like these and those in a handful of other names signs for concern in the market? And a no vote, no go. Shares of the one-time farmer darling hitting nearly three-year lows on slash guidance and a new CEO. Is there any recourse for the embattled name? And a Boeing bummer. Shares drop even after the company cut losses. A potential deal sends shares of CyberArk soaring in the state of the retail trader, how investors feel after a quarter of big volatility in the resurgence of the meme trade.

0:39I'm Melissa Lee, coming to you live from the studio of you at the Nasdaq on the desk tonight, Tim Seymour, Steve Grasso, Dan Nathan, and Guy Adami. We start off with what could look at first glance, like a relatively quiet day for stocks. While the S &P and Nasdaq both set intraday records early in the session, all three major indices finished the day in shallow red territory, but some big moves elsewhere still caught our traders' eyes today. Bond yields, for instance, dropping ahead of tomorrow's Fed decision. The dollar hit a one-month high against the euro, and crude oil surging nearly 4 percent on hopes of trade relief.

1:10Take a look at some individual stock moves. UPS dropping more than 10 percent after pulling guidance hit levels not seen since the pandemic. And even red-hot NVIDIA, which hit a record just shy of$180, end of the day down nearly a percent. So do these big moves under the surface raise a warning sign, even when the broader markets seem tame, Guy? You have to pay attention to them without question. And obviously, tomorrow we can come back. They all could be making new highs. But you wait for days like this to give you some indication that maybe something's turned. In terms of NVIDIA, we saw a very similar move back in January.

1:44The stock made an all-time high, 153 and change, closed lower on the day, engulfing pattern. By April, it's trading 90 bucks. in terms of the S &P all-time high today, closed on the lows. You have to watch these things. I mean, this is how it starts. Now, it all could be different tomorrow or Friday, but today is one of those days where in a few months from now, we might come back and say, remember that sort of odd Tuesday in July? Well, that was the start of something. It did feel a little bit defensive in terms of the action in the sectors, utilities, staples, you know, within retail. It was a down day for retail across the board, except for Walmart.

2:18Walmart had a pretty decent gain. And it felt like there was a little bit of safety seeking today. Well, I think there's safety seeking. But again, it gets back to the uncertainty that we have in an environment. And we're reminded that CEOs will use this opportunity to remind everyone else that they have a lack of clarity. And we'll talk about UPS. And that was part of that story, even though nobody expected this CEO to give a lot of guidance. And so the part that worries me are the market dynamics, which are we have seen outsized moves in stocks that have missed, especially stocks that have warned a bit.

2:50And I think that is something to think about when you look at where there has been leadership so far. So good. Look, semiconductors were up small in the day. And when you think about the move that they've had, I think we're fine. But it is a handful of names that touch a either consumer discretionary or spending as relates to hospitality, airlines, travel. And I think we've seen a lot of weak spots. In fact, I think we've seen a lot of companies let you know that they're not so sure about the strength of their business. That's what on a quiet day in markets. And boy, all we've talked about is how important this week was.

3:21This is like the quietest day we have. If you think about it, we've got and I won't rehash everything we've said is happening this week. So not cause for alarm. But that dollar move is also something to realize. Trades are getting unwound. There is a flight to quality there. Earnings are beating on 80 percent rate. The 10-year average is 75 percent. And if you look at the season, seasonally week time period is August through October. So it's overvalued or priced to perfection, however you want to say that. Is it due for a little pullback? Yes. So I would take a little chips maybe off the table, but not permanently off the table.

3:56Yeah, I think it's pretty fascinating. We've talked about this a bit. You know, in late April, early May, when a lot of these companies were guiding for Q2, it was about as bleak as it could be. Right. The uncertainty in and around the trade war. So the fact that we have companies beating it, you just mentioned 80 percent. Right. But the stocks are selling off. I mean, just look at the screens today. You just mentioned UPS. There's UNH. There's Spotify. I'm probably a Whirlpool. What was the other one? Your Novo. I mean, not your Novo, my Novo, actually. I don't even know why the people are not buying the Wigobi anymore.

4:24It works, people. I'm just telling you that right now. No, but, you know, I mean, look at what's going on with what the companies are saying. And this is kind of coming in after they gave, you know, squishy guidance going back three months or so. So I have no idea how the stock market is within a percent of the all-time highs. If I just look at the names and the reactions that we've seen over the last two weeks since financial earnings, it just doesn't make a lot of sense to me. So maybe it's this thing about passive. I don't know. Is it picking up some of these other groups that we're not paying attention to?

4:52Because the stuff that I'm paying attention to does not trade particularly well. We've been hearing on the conference call, to your point, to all of you guys' points, we are hearing the actual hit because of tariffs. So we're starting to get that sort of clarity as opposed to the squishing, the ranges that we were given before or sort of the amorphous guidance. Procter & Gamble is going to start raising prices mid-single digits in some of the products sold domestically. You mentioned Whirlpool. That was a big hit because of tariffs. Stanley, Bach & Decker, that's a big hit because of earnings.

5:17Last week, there's GM. There's Raytheon. There are so many companies now saying what the hit is specifically because of tariffs. We're just starting to see that. The point you've made correctly is that it was never going to be the worst-case scenario. It was going to probably not be the best case and somewhere in between. And I think we have probably found the in between. The problem, if there is one, is in that in between, somebody is paying for it, whether it's the consumer, as you've said, or whether it's the company. So in some way, shape or form, the math suggests either margins are going to contract or the consumer is going to be further strapped.

5:51And I think that's what the market hasn't figured out yet. And ultimately, it's always the I mean, it is ultimately the consumer. The companies pay for it. Then they get tighter on what they spend. They get tighter with their workforce. They lay people off. It's a hit to the consumer. It's always a hit to the consumer at the end of the day. Yeah. And it's a consumer that we really don't know how how how much foundation is under that spend. We know they have jobs. And we said yesterday, I still think that payroll number is maybe the biggest moment of the week. Not because we've seen any real erosion in the job market to this point.

6:23But we definitely have a case where I think the consumer is critical. I look at just the sector ETFs today and you have really weak performance in industrials and in transports and in parts of the at least the market that were the exciting part of some of this breadth here. Financials after a great run were down a little bit. But if you want the markets to go higher, tomorrow is a more important day because that's where you have some of the, you know, whatever percent, whatever trillions of market cap are going to report. Those are the names that have been leading the market. And how could you sell the market if there's going to be a China-U.S.

6:55deal or if it's extended on the goodwill extended another 30 days or another month, right, or another month and a half? We don't know what that is, but you can't sell the market ahead of a China deal. So you're longed in anticipation of that deal. Yeah, I think you always have to look at every sale. Every sale has been wrong, right, since that April low. So if you want to play conservative and take some chips off the table, you could probably do that. But you'll also have to think you're going to miss some upside if that China deal gets inked. You know, it's funny. Just on a premium standpoint, we talked about the VIX.

7:30We talked about the curve yesterday. But you're looking at a VIX that's like 15 and a half with the S &P. You've got a lot of single stock movement. And, you know, remember the options action show we did for a long time? Fridays. Yeah, Fridays. I've been trying to, like, you know, buy some puts here and there. It's a hard way to kind of trade against the market, even with a VIX at 15 right now, because unless you get it right, right in front of these numbers, and that's not a great way to trade options, it's just a hard environment to trade right now. I mean, it really is, and the market just levitates here.

7:56Right. Meantime, President Trump on Air Force One calling today's trade talks with China very good. Our Eamon Jarosz spoke with Treasury Secretary Besant following the talks. He's in Stockholm, Sweden, with the very latest. Hi, Eamon. Hey there, Melissa. I sat down with the Treasury Secretary right after he got off the phone with President Trump, briefing the president on the outcome of these trade talks. I asked the Treasury Secretary if there are any specific agreements that he could point to from the two-day session here with the Chinese in Stockholm. He didn't point to any specific outcome here.

8:27And I also asked if he's prepared to do what the market really wanted from this meeting, which was to extend that August 12th deadline for tariffs with China another 90 days. is he wasn't prepared to commit to that, Melissa. He said he's got to go back to Washington and report in before he can do it. Here's what he said. It's pending President Trump's approval. He has final say on all the trade deals. I spoke to him right before I came in with you. I'm going to see him with Ambassador Greer tomorrow, and he'll have the final decision. I think our Chinese counterparts have jumped the gun a little and said that we do have an extension.

9:12So you hear Besant there saying that the Chinese counterparts jumped the gun a little bit by announcing that they have a deal to extend that deadline. I think reading between the lines, you get the sense that he does expect that President Trump will announce tomorrow that they're going to extend that deadline, but that doesn't happen until it happens, and the president can change his mind at any minute. So we'll see after that Oval Office briefing between Besson and Trump tomorrow in Washington what the official announcement is. Interesting here that the scenario is that there'll be maybe another 90 day pause and keep that truce going that they set in London and then have to have another meeting.

9:50So another sit down somewhere else off camera. I was talking to the Treasury secretary. You know, where might you actually do that? He was thinking maybe Portugal could be a good place to meet. but we don't know. And so it looks like we're going to see maybe a series of these now as the United States and China continue to negotiate. He also said that there was no discussion over the past two days of a Xi Jinping, Donald Trump meeting. So that was something else that the market was looking for. It doesn't appear that we're any closer necessarily to that meeting than we were before this sit down started on Monday, Melissa.

10:22What is your sense, Eamon, from the secretary about the progress, if any, being made about specifically rare earths, about the tariffs related specifically to fentanyl, for example, which I know the Chinese really, really want lifted? I mean, that's just, you know, I don't want to say devastating, but it's impactful to them for sure. Yeah. The Treasury secretary told us that there's a sequencing problem on fentanyl. The Chinese want the American side to lift the fentanyl tariffs immediately, and the American side doesn't want to lift the fentanyl tariffs until they see what they feel is measurable progress on fentanyl precursors.

11:00So he said they simply have a sequencing problem, and that seems to be stuck for now. You know, on the other issues, we'll see where we land on a lot of these things. It doesn't seem like there was really a lot of progress. the Treasury Secretary talked a lot about the sort of the arc of the negotiations, the fact that they've got better rapport with their Chinese counterparts, that they have a rhythm now for these negotiations, that they know each other very well. There's some trust being established here, but not much to point to in terms of specific outcomes. He did say he'll take the deal to the president and then the president might have an announcement.

11:38So we'll watch in Washington for that tomorrow. All right. Eamon, thank you. Eamon Javers, live for us from Stockholm, Sweden. What do we make of here of this framework? The fact that the Chinese announced that there was an extension, but our side has said there's nothing yet until the president approves. Well, it tells you that the extension is really what this is all about. And I guess both sides have posturing to be able to say this is where we got something. Look, see, we're getting what we want. You know, China in this country is is a bipartisan issue. So, you know, back to the markets interpretation of all this, though, is two days in a row.

12:15Let's just assume maybe China jumped the gun. But if we have a three month delay, if there is some sense that there's a framework in place, this comes a day after at least we rallied very little on the EU news. So markets are at a place where each increasingly, you know, the two biggest trade deals have led to zero reaction in the markets. Now, we all know we've rallied a lot, but I think that is getting back to what we've said is the impact of six times where tariffs were before Trump took office is something that we have to think about for the economy. So to Tim's point, do we sell on the news if there's a China deal?

12:49Yes, I think you buy the rumor. I think it's going to be a slow walk. I think you buy the rumor and you sell the news. Once this trade deal really hits paper, I think you could take some profits because then what's the next catalyst? And I think we're all struggling to find that. But I think they are going to slow walk. This is about antibiotics. This is about fentanyl. This is about rare earth. So there's a lot of ways to trade around it. I would buy the stock market into that print. You know, very quietly, the FXI is starting to get off the mat. You know, around$39 is a four-year high in the FXI.

13:21And I think that's the place to be. I'm with Tim and Steve on this one in terms of sell the news. I think the U.S. market might be sort of saturated on that. I don't think the Chinese market, specifically KWeb, FXI, individual names, is pricing any of this in whatsoever. Yeah, so fentanyl taxes, fentanyl not taxes, whatever it is, it doesn't really matter. You know, China is 10 percent of our imports. We just did this deal, and I'm doing it in air quotes if you're listening to it on the podcast network here. Or the radio. Or the radio. I didn't see air quotes. Did you see air quotes? No, I'm just telling them that.

13:48They don't know because they can't see me, right? We can get away with anything for those folks. But I didn't see you do it. So I, you know. I saw him. You know what I see? I see Dan dressed in a suit on the first time. You guys look very fancy. On the hottest day of the year. February 2020. Looking sharp. We had this great photo shoot, all of us. Don't tease the audience. Yeah. We want it to be a surprise. It was pretty cool. Anyway, back to China. No more surprise anymore. Okay, so these deals, okay, let's just call them what they are, right? We have the EU deal. It's a framework. It's one of those things where who knows if that's going to be implemented, but it's 15 % across the board.

14:21We have Mexico. We have Canada. Those are 25 percent of our imports. Right. So that's more than the EU. And China's 10 percent. So we have a bunch of frameworks. We have a bunch of non-deals. And we don't know. And I think that's what the stock market or at least individual stocks are telling us. That's what we started with. The market's not telling us that yet. And it's not giving reason for, I think, people to run for the hills. And let's be fair. There's no reason to run for the hills. If we had that announcement back in early April and we had that 30 percent decline or whatever we did and we made it back in record time.

14:51And here we are. We're much higher than that. Have a ball. You know, get ready to dollar cost average on the way down. We will get a 10 percent correction at some point in the next year or so. Who knows? Maybe it comes quicker than we think. All right. Meantime, UnitedHealth shares dropping seven and a half percent today after saying its 2025 earnings will be worse than expected. The insurer citing higher medical costs and Medicare Advantage plans as a major headwind. The stock is now down nearly 60 percent from its record high and has taken 1500 points off the Dow this year. This is the first guidance after the guidance was withdrawn when the CEO stepped down.

15:25This is the first guidance under the new CEO, Stephen Hemsley. But obviously a huge disappointment, Tim. Yeah, and I know we wanted to get something, even though this was not what we wanted to get. We did get more, actually, and I think the numbers that we received were a little worse than this we was expecting. So as we look to 26, that's really the number that the analysts have to use as their bogey, because we don't know what this company is worth. Remember, this is a company that for a while traded 13, 14, 15 times, then traded mid 20s because it deserved a higher multiple on higher growth.

15:56Now, really hard to know where we're handicapping this number. I, in the absence of a federal probe, that could have significant either punitive impact in terms of penalties and whatnot. I know the earnings power of this company to me, even with the Medicare Advantage dynamic, I think is is is weakened, but is certainly very interesting at 260 a share. The forecast adjusts DPS of 16. That's a little bit more than half of where that forecast was. The estimate was at the beginning of the year. Medical loss ratio estimate continued to come down here. So we're seeing all sorts of although they did hint at turning the corner in 2026.

16:34If you can wait that long. Yeah, well, last night on the show, I said if they say anything incremental on the margins is positive, it should be trading 325. Obviously, that didn't come to fruition. And I'll say this. They are buying back stock at a certain point. That's going to be accretive as hell. But it is remarkable how poorly this trades. And then the next question you have to ask. And I think the market is trying to sniff this out. This is not just going to be a UNH thing. I mean, this is going to manifest its way through that entire sector. So I thought yesterday was the day that was wrong.

17:05Now you got to wait and see. The costs are still going up. And for them, if you look at the price of the stock, it's back to April 2020 levels. So to Guy's point, I think the buy signal is probably$40 lower than where it is right now. Coming up, the busiest week of earnings season is underway. Starbucks, Visa, and more all reporting in just the last hour. The details and the numbers from the quarters next. Plus, shares of Novo Nordisk seeing their worst day since Black Monday in 1987. Can new leadership revive this long, struggling stock and restore its position in the weight loss drug race? Don't go anywhere.

17:39Fast Money is back in two.

17:46Welcome back to Fast Money. We've got an earnings alert on Starbucks. The stock getting caffeinated after hours after the coffee chain beat revenue estimates. Let's get to CNBC's Kate Rogers, who's got the numbers and the very latest in the call. Kate. Hey, Melissa, you said it. Revenue is a B for Starbucks. Same store sales, though, fell for a fifth quarter in a row, down 2 percent overall and also in the U.S. The stock was down, but as you said, rebounded as CEO Brian Nickel discussed his back to Starbucks plans, including Green Apron Service. That's its hospitality push with better staffing and engagement from baristas.

18:15I actually went to Seattle Monday to hear more about Green Apron Service from COO Mike Grahams. Take a listen. You will see it show up in different ways across New York. You may see a digital host who's out front navigating that experience and able to connect at the same time. It could be an extra person at the drive-thru. The idea is just really making sure that we've got the right partners in the right place at the right time throughout the entire day. The company says it will invest over half a billion dollars of additional labor hours into the U.S. company-operated portfolio over the next year, beginning, Melissa, with that Green Apron service rollout that starts in mid-August.

18:49There's also an app revamp coming next year, along with beverage innovations like Protein Cold Foam. It also said it's sunsetting its mobile order pickup-only concept in 2026. Fewer than 100 stores like that in the portfolio. One more note, three consecutive quarters of U.S. transactions, comps improving. So the company is saying that the back to Starbucks plan is working, even though the financials are not quite there yet. I know CEO Brian Nicol will be on Squawk on the street tomorrow morning for a first on CNBC interview. So much more to come, guys, tomorrow morning. Back over to you. What is the latest on China, Kay, in terms of the consumer's willingness to spend there, especially when there's a really viable competitor there in the form of luck in, but also its efforts to sell a stake in the China business?

19:30So China same store sales, Melissa, did reverse up 2 percent. So that was a bright spot in the portfolio. And also, Brian Nichols said they've been working to identify a strategic partner with a like-minded vision and values to capture those growth opportunities in China. He also noted significant interest from more than 20 interested parties said that they are currently evaluating options. So we will keep our eyes and ears open on that one. All right, Kate, thanks. Kate Rogers. Thank you. All right, so Starbucks is perking up 3 % in the after-arrest session, as one says, when one talks about Starbucks stock.

20:01Yeah, it's a nice jolt. and we could probably do all kinds of things, right? But we wouldn't because we're not like that here. We hate puns. The China sales increasing 2 % is important and the global comps being flattish, I think takes a little bit of the downer off of same store sales comps in the US continuing to get weaker and weaker. But I don't think there's anything that you have to go out and buy here. I really don't, even though I'm long the stock. Cup half full. I'll go the half empty route. Six straight quarters now declining sales, which is not good. The comps are not good. The valuation I don't think is good.

20:37Wait for this one, Tim. I'm surprised the shares are not getting roasted in the after hours. See what I did there? That might be my favorite. The roasted? Really? You think it was that bad? I don't think it's good. I think they're buying the stock on the promises of a turnaround that this man has done before in a much different situation. I think the obstacles that Starbucks face are far greater than what Chipotle Mexican real face. Well, if you still look at the chart of Chipotle and the chart of Starbucks, you'd still rather be in Starbucks. It's still betting on Nickel. You would rather be because you just felt rather.

21:08Oh, yeah. I really didn't plan on doing that. But I still bet on I'd rather have him manning the helm at Starbucks versus buying Chipotle on a recovery story. 30 % of U.S. sales are digital. I didn't understand what Kate said about what they're doing with digital pickup over the winter. Did you? No, just digital only. I think that's it. She said there's about 100 stores in the system that are only digital ordering. Got it. So I don't know how he's going to do the turnaround in-store. I'm noticing that when I go in the store, I make my own coffee at home now. I don't like paying up for that. But when I go in-store, the vibe feels genuinely different than what it once felt like.